Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
959 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 434 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Summary: a cold front will move through the Northland tonight,
leading to increasing chances of a mix of rain and snow. Strong
northwest winds are expected Friday, along with a low risk of snow
squalls over east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
Another messy spring storm system is possible for the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame, with a plethora of precipitation
Conditions for the remainder of the day will largely be dry and
quiet, thanks to a high pressure ridge axis that will translate
through the region. Increasing clouds are expected this evening
and overnight as a compact mid-level shortwave trough, with a
decent area of positive vorticity advection, moves into the
Northland. An attendant cold front will accompany the shortwave
trough and will be the catalyst for increasing chances of light
precipitation. NAM and RAP model soundings indicate precipitation
types will be either rain or snow, or a mix of both. Additionally,
there may be a brief period of light drizzle/freezing drizzle
along the front, but ice accumulations should be limited. The
front will eventually exit the region by mid-day Friday, but
strong cold air advection on northwest winds will usher in behind
the front. Chances of light snow showers will linger during the
day Friday, as a saturated dendritic snow growth layer will remain
in place. We have been looking at the potential for snow squalls
across our southern areas during the morning and early afternoon
hours. Both the NAM and RAP models are indicating surface-based
CAPE around 30 to 70 J/kg, as well as some modestly steep low-
level lapse rates. The isallobaric pressure couplet doesn`t appear
to be very strong, which is favorable for snow squalls if there
is a strong pressure couplet. Additionally, there is a modest FGEN
band across our south during the morning hours. This is not the
best set-up for snow squalls I`ve ever seen, but some of the
ingredients are progged to be in place. So, it appears there is a
lower risk for snow squalls tomorrow morning/early afternoon. In
any case, a tight surface pressure gradient will be in place post
fropa, so gusty northwest winds around 25 to 35 mph will be
possible. There may be a few areas of blowing snow, but it isn`t
anticipated to be widespread.
Chances of light snow will come to an end Friday night, although
the strong cold air advection, and favorable wind direction, will
help support a prolonged period of lake-effect snow along the Lake
Superior snowbelt region at least through Saturday morning. Drier
conditions are expected for the remainder of the day Saturday
through Monday. The main story over the weekend will be colder
temperatures, with overnight lows in the single digits Saturday
night and again Sunday night.
Attention then turns to the potential for another messy spring
system that is slated to move through the region, beginning
Tuesday, lasting through Thursday. A longwave trough will develop
along the western CONUS, which could lead to the development of a
Colorado Low. There is significant uncertainty with this prolonged
system, particularly when it comes to both precipitation amounts
and types. The bulk of the precipitation looks to begin to fall
starting Tuesday night, lasting through Wednesday night. It seems
there are some discrepancies among the global models on the path
of the Colorado Low, which will have significant implications on
precipitation type and amounts. Definitely a system to keep an eye
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
VFR conditions will start the period with cloud cover increasing
this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A line of rain and
snow showers will pass through the region tonight as the cold front
moves through. MVFR vsbys will be possible along this line of
precip, with a chance for IFR vsbys in BRD. Northwest winds behind
this cold front are likely to be strong tomorrow, particularly
around the Brainerd Lakes area. MVFR stratus is unlikely to
dissipate throughout the remainder of the period. In addition, light
snow showers are likely throughout the day for most terminals.
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
10 PM Update: Expanded the Gale Watch to include the outer Apostle
Islands, where wind gusts Friday evening may reach up to 35 knots.
Otherwise, no major forecast changes were made since the previous
Previous discussion: Light and variable winds will continue
through the evening hours today, thanks to a high pressure ridge
axis that will move across the region. Southwest winds will start
to strengthen during the very early morning hours Friday ahead of
a cold front that will sweep from west to east across western Lake
Superior tonight through Friday morning. As the cold front moves
through, winds will gradually turn more northwesterly during the
daylight hours Friday, and strengthen even further. Northwest
winds of 15 to 25 knots, with gusts to around 30 knots are
expected, which will lead to hazardous conditions to smaller
vessels. Even stronger winds are possible along the North Shore
late Friday into Saturday morning, generally from Silver Bay
northeast towards Grand Portage, as strong downslope flow will be
possible. Gale-force gusts around 35 to 45 knots are possible. Due
to this gale-force gust potential, we have issued a Gale Watch
for the aforementioned areas, with a Small Craft Advisory
elsewhere across western Lake Superior. Winds will weaken during
the day Saturday, but gusts may remain around Small Craft Advisory
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 33 12 25 / 70 30 20 0
INL 26 29 7 21 / 60 40 20 0
BRD 31 34 12 29 / 70 40 10 0
HYR 28 36 14 30 / 50 60 40 0
ASX 28 36 17 28 / 40 50 40 20
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday for
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday for
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for LSZ150.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
950 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Showers will taper off late tonight into early Friday as a cold
front moves offshore. Expect windy and cooler conditions this
weekend as high pressure moves east across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, and deepening low pressure tracks north of the waters.
Fair with near to below normal temperatures early next week,
will be followed by a noticeable warmup into mid-week, as high
pressure aloft strengthens.
Frontal boundary was located off the coast of the Carolinas at
00Z, although the dewpoint boundary remained just west of I-95,
aligned along a surface trough. Mid-level water vapor imagery
shows two distinct swaths of moisture...one extending northeast
from central FL, just off the GA/SC coasts, and across Cape
Fear. A trailing swath extended from the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
northeast across eastern GA. Deep southwest flow, as shown in
the KLTX 88D VWP, will direct this moisture across the area
through 06-09Z, where it will combine with some lift provided by
the right rear entrance region of the upper jet to maintain
scattered to numerous PoPs. Deep layer of dry air pushes to the
coast by around 09Z and precip should be shutting down. Have
mainly tweaked PoPs and dewpoints with this update to account
for current trends.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Though not readily apparent in any satellite windows radar
trends clearly show that deep moisture and ascent are shifting
offshore. For the most part this trend should continue, though
some higher res guidance like the HRRR want to bring another
round of slightly heavier rain up the immediate coast. Tried to
preserve that sentiment in POPs but have lowered QPF a fair
amount. The synoptic front is drawing near however and so the
rain had better get underway for the wetter solutions to verify.
For similar reasons it would seem that POPs lingering along the
immediate coast seem a bit pessimistic even if only by a few
hours. Dry air advection will make for a return of sunshine on
Friday while lingering surface troughiness to our west holds
back any CAA. The afternoon should warm to 70 for most.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
`Clearing and Windy` may describe start of weekend as we get
caught between two powerful features, strong SW-W wind Saturday
trends to W-NW Saturday night. Skies apt to see full clearing
sometime Friday night. Associated cold air advection will dip
morning lows into the 40s Saturday. Deep mixing Saturday sets
the stage for gusts to 40 mph during afternoon, not far from
wind advisory criteria for gusts of 46 mph or better. Dry air
coursing across southern periphery of upper low provides plenty
sun to aid efficient mixing. The cooler air will hold max-T
below 70 most places Saturday, but the downslope wind flow may
allow a few sites just inland of the coast to reach 70s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty NW winds and cold air advection to hold temperatures below
normal Sunday, although this is accompanied by copious sunshine
to help warm objects through conduction. Chilly early Sunday and
Monday with morning lows in the 30s. Remainder of the extended
forecast beyond early week look fair and mainly dry with short-
wave ridging into mid week supporting a warm-up to near or a
little above normal. Phasing streams bring a full latitude upper
trough east of Mississippi River, and a decent chance of rain
to area late next week.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Numerous showers will continue for the next 3-6 hours,
scattering out in coverage from west to east. Drier air has
already begun to filter into KFLO, reflected in 51 degree
dewpoint at 23Z, and higher ceilings. Expect mainly VFR inland,
with MVFR and tempo IFR along the coast through midnight, when
the drier air makes it there. Precip should push out of the area
by 08Z, with ceilings scattering out after sunrise. West winds
will increase Friday especially once a little heating leads to
deeper mixing in the vertical.
Extended Outlook...VFR Friday into the weekend and Monday.
Cold front still to our west and winds remain southwesterly but
a clockwise veer is still expected. There may be a brief
increase in the W to NW flow and a few gusts to 25kt may be
possible but headlines should not return as they will be
infrequent. Seas to hold fairly steady across the board with
just a small shortening in period from the wind shift and a
slightly larger nearshore/offshore wave due to the offshore flow
Friday Night through Tuesday
Difficult weekend for marine activities upcoming simply because
of excessive wind Saturday and Sunday, and an advisory will
likely be needed. Strong low pressure to the north and strong
high pressure advancing from the WSW will induce strong SW-W
winds Saturday, becoming NW Saturday night into Sunday. This
change in direction will usher noticeably cooler air into the
region. The good news given this windy forecast is that dryness
in the atmosphere will result in fair weather with no showers or
TSTMs this weekend over the 0-20 nm waters. Steep and growing
WSW waves Saturday will turn from the WNW into Sunday, with 6-7
foot seas outer waters and gusty wind. Monday and Tuesday
features improvement as winds die off and seas fall to 2 to 3
feet early next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
929 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Issued at 929 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Overall, the forecast appears to be on track. Pesky showers and
drizzle continue across northeastern Illinois, but a rough back
edge appears to be developing in central Wisconsin and should pass
through our area overnight. Attention then turns to the well-
advertised threat for squalls tomorrow evening. A quick peek at
the incoming 00Z guidance provides little change in forecast
thinking with a cold-core low anchored by 500mb temps of -35C (700
mb of -17C) diving southeastward from Canada into the Great
Lakes. In fact, the 00Z RAP matches an analog from 4/2/2016 during
which squalls, some with lightning, produced 50 to 60 mph wind
gusts across our area. In addition, confidence remains medium to
high that westerly winds will gust 35 to 40 mph outside of squalls
tomorrow evening. We`ll let the midnight crew take a full look at
the 00Z guidance to make decisions on whether a Wind Advisory, as
well as even stronger messaging on the squall threat, will be
Updated products have been sent.
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Through Friday night...
The primary forecast highlights during the period continue to
-The likelihood of some very gusty west-northwesterly Friday
afternoon and evening, potentially in excess of 40 mph at times.
-Convective showers (Rain, snow and graupel) developing Friday
afternoon and continuing into the evening, with locally higher
wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.
Cloudy and dreary conditions continue across the area this
afternoon thanks to the pesky slow moving upper trough, and an
associated surface frontal boundary in place across the region.
Expect periods of light rain and drizzle to continue into this
evening. Some wet snow will also mix in across my northern tier
counties, especially north of I-88, where colder air is beginning
to seep southward on the cold side of the surface boundary. Little
to no accumulation is expected, however, as surface temperatures
hover in the middle to upper 30s. While some areas of drizzle may
persist tonight, much of the rain shower activity will be waning
with time later this evening and overnight.
Our next weather maker of interest for Friday`s weather is the
mid/upper level PV anomaly currently transversing the the
Canadian Rockies. Model and ensemble guidance continues to dig
this feature southeastward into the Upper Midwest Friday morning,
then across our area by early Friday evening. This features will
induce strong height falls/cooling aloft overhead late in the day,
resulting in rapidly steepening low and mid level lapse rates
from the surface to around 700mb. Deep mixing and an increasing
wind field will allow for the onset of very gusty west-
southwesterly winds mid to late Friday afternoon, and likely
persisting through the evening as cold air advection continues. I
would not be surprised to see some gusts upwards of 40-45 mph
outside of any convective showers that occur. For this reason, a
wind advisory may be needed for parts of the area for late Friday
and Friday evening. Will let the mid-shift get another look at
The other concern for Friday afternoon and evening continues to
be the threat of convective showers (possibly even with
lightning). These convective showers look to be initially in the
form of rain and graupel Friday afternoon, but as wet-bulb zero
heights quickly lower by early Friday evening snow and graupel
will quickly become the primary precipitation type with these
showers. Given the convective elements, with soundings even
continuing to advertise a moist absolutely unstable layer (MAUL),
along with the increasing wind field the threat for heavy snow
squalls will exist over northern IL Friday evening. There is even
some concern for localized slushy snow accumulations Friday
evening due to the possibility of very heavy rates in the
convective showers. Also, similar to warm season convection, this
activity could lead to localized enhanced wind gusts in excess of
All together, this could result in some dangerous snow squalls
that disrupt travel conditions for a period across parts of
northern IL Friday evening. Very low visibilities and strong
winds (50+ mph) look to be the primary hazards within these
convective snow showers, but some localized minor slushy
accumulation could also lead to slick roads. Conditions should
improve overnight Friday night, though breezy northwesterly winds
will continue into Saturday. Temperatures will fall into the mid
to upper 20s by early Saturday morning.
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Saturday through Thursday...
A quickly developing subsidence inversion will end any lingering
light snow across the eastern CWA by late morning. Otherwise,
expect blustery and unseasonably cold conditions with NW gusts to
around 25 mph and temps in the mid to upper 30s. Conditions will
remain unseasonably cold through Sunday as the low-level cold air
core brushes the area to the northeast. Temps will struggle to
rise out of the mid 30s even under mostly sunny skies.
A substantial spread in guidance with the handling of a deep
western CONUS trough through much of next week continues to plague
the forecast as we close out March. Guidance does agree on some
generalities, including the establishment of a pronounced NW to SW
low-level baroclinic zone across the mid-MS Valley under strong
NW flow aloft Monday into Tuesday. While there is an initial
overall lack of deep-layer moisture, the juxtaposition of an
upper-jet entrance over the low-level baroclinic zone should
induce enough F- gen to generate a persistent and somewhat
stagnant axis of light rain/snow across the area late Monday night
into Tuesday. The baroclinic zone will likely then stall over the
northern CWA or lift north of the area as a warm front Wednesday
in response to a strong surface low developing over the central
Great Plains. Model disagreements in the handling of the
associated deep western CONUS trough quickly results in diverging
solutions by Wednesday. A large spread in both deterministic and
ensemble solutions, even within individual ensemble suites, limits
the ability to provide specifics at this time. But, all signs
point to an active mid-week and especially Wednesday across the
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation weather concerns for 00Z TAFs:
* Continued MVFR ceilings, occasionally dropping to IFR in light
rain and drizzle this evening. Precipitations will end early
Friday morning, although MVFR CIGs will remain into Friday.
* Strong westerly winds Friday afternoon, with gusts up to 40+ kt
* In addition to strong, gusty winds, there`s a chance of wintery
mixed precipitation turning into snow showers Friday afternoon
into Friday evening.
A busy TAF period with several moving parts. Presently a surface low
is moving through the forecast area with light rain and MVFR CIGs. A
shallow cold front has pushed in from the northeast and is located
over ORD at 00Z, bringing northeasterly winds and IFR ceilings to
ORD and sites north of ORD. This front is expected to shift off to
the east, allowing ORD`s winds to become west to northwesterly, with
all sites seeing northwesterly winds throughout tonight. MVFR CIGs
with occasional IFR CIGs will remain throughout tonight, becoming
predominantly MVFR a few hours after midnight as most of the
precipitation moves off the the east. MVFR CIGs are forecast to
remain in place throughout the rest of tonight into Friday afternoon.
The break in weather will be brief as a rather strong system is
forecasted to move into the area Friday. Strong northwesterly winds
are expected with this system, with gusts beginning in the late
morning, and continuing to strengthen through the afternoon, with
gusts of 40 kt, or higher, being possible in the afternoon. In
addition to the strong winds, showers are expected, some of which
may be strong. There is a possibility of graupel with these showers
due to the very cold air aloft and strong instability. Colder air
will arrive behind a cold front later Friday afternoon into evening,
creating some moments of rain showers mixed with snow before
transitioning to snow showers Friday evening. The chance for snow
showers will start to decrease after Friday midnight, with lingering
chances in northwest Indiana into Saturday morning.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM
Friday to 1 AM Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...1 AM Saturday to 7
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 AM Saturday to 4
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
859 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022
A complex frontal system and associated low pressure pass
across the region tonight. A surface trough passes on Friday
followed by a series of cold fronts this weekend. High pressure
then through the middle of next week, followed by a possible
frontal system affecting the region mid to late next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers expanding across eastern PA and southern NJ in
association with an area of low pressure over the northern
Delmarva. A few lightning strikes were also noted across
eastern PA with weak elevated instability.
The combination of the region lying on the periphery of the
right entrance of an upper jet and approaching shortwave over
the Ohio Valley will send the aforementioned low across eastern
LI late tonight. The associated warm front may try to lift
across a portion of eastern Long Island as the low moves nearby.
The low should then quickly lift north and east into New
England overnight, moving towards the coast of Maine by day
break Friday morning.
Showers will overspread from south to north the next few hours.
becoming widespread 03-04z. Some elevated instability is
indicated on forecast soundings and will continue to mention
isolated thunderstorms. The HRRR has been very consistent with
the timing and coverage of activity this evening and have
followed it closely overall. The activity will quickly move
north of the area between 06-08z before ending by 10z out east.
The showers and embedded thunderstorms will move quickly so am
not anticipating any hydrologic issues despite some brief
locally heavy downpours. Average rainfall amounts of 0.25 to
0.50 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts possible.
Mostly cloudy conditions then prevail into Friday morning. Lows
will be in the 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis passes offshore on Friday, with the flow
briefly flattening within the broader mean trough. Mostly
cloudy conditions to start will become partly cloudy for the
rest of the day. The flow will generally be out of the W or WSW,
which should help boost temperatures back above normal in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.
Another strong vortmax dives out of Canada over the Great Lakes
Friday night. This energy will help amplify the heights along the
east coast by early Saturday morning. This should start increasing
clouds, but dry conditions will prevail. Lows should end up above
normal in the upper 30s inland to the lower and middle 40s
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 trof plows thru the area late Sat. At least sct shwrs can be
expected. If the timing holds and the energy arrives at peak heating
as the models suggest, would expect some tstms as well in the aftn
and early eve. Some hail possible with cold temps aloft.
Much colder Sun thru Tue. A hard freeze can be expected Sun ngt and
A bit more model uncertainty for Wed and Thu regarding how fast
polar front retreats nwd. As a result, the NBM was followed..
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure approaches from the southwest this evening and will
pass across eastern Long Island during the early morning hours.
A surface trough moves through Friday afternoon.
Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions are forecast for much of the
night with a steady rain to move into the area around or after
02Z, overspreading the terminals from SW to NE. An isolated
thunderstorm will be possible during this time with VCTS
mentioned for all but KSWF. Conditions dry out in the 06Z to
09Z timeframe. MVFR and then VFR conditions return toward 12Z
NE winds 5-10 kt will veer around to the W/NW late as low
pressure lifts to the NE. W/SW winds on Friday will increases
to 10 to 15 kt with G20kt in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for category changes through tonight and early
Friday. Timing of any TS may be off 1-2 hours with most probable
timeframe around 03z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night...VFR. W G20kt possible early.
.Saturday...Chance of MVFR in showers. W/SW winds 10-15kt G15-20kt.
.Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
Winds this evening remain around 20 kt or less. Winds should
then mostly stay below 25 kt overnight, but there could be some
occasional gusts to 25 kt late tonight or early Friday morning
on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet. Winds should continue to
stay below SCA levels Friday and Friday night. Ocean seas will
remain elevated above 5 ft through Friday night. The SCA on the
ocean has been extended through 22z Friday for now, but will
likely be needed through the weekend as elevated seas look to
continue. The best chance for SCA winds on the protected waters
during this same period is Sun-Mon.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight.
Locally heavy downpours are possible, but fast movement of the
system will prevent any hydrologic impacts.
No hydrologic impacts expected from Friday through the middle of
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.