Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/23/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1047 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
The threat of a wintry mix continues to creep into eastern Taylor
county, so have hoisted a winter weather advisory through midday
Wednesday. Observations have trended cooler than the earlier
guidance had depicted, with Medford`s T/Td teetering around 32 to
33 degrees and upstream observations to the E/NE several degrees
cooler. Freezing rain is being reported with these upstream sites
as well. Ground/road temperatures remain on the cooler side given
the nighttime hours and 2-4 inch snow pack in place.
Rerunning the overnight forecast through the FRAM using HRRR
temperature guidance (which is trending the best of the CAMs)
produces about 0.05" of ice in the eastern half of the county,
which also falls in line with the HREF ice accretion progs. Once
the +2-3 C warm nose shifts east after 09-11Z, the colder surface
temperatures should also allow for greater snowfall amounts. The
storm total snow values now push 2-3 inches in the eastern part
of the county. This snowfall forecast remains on the lower
confidence side given how close the surface temperature profiles
are to supporting either rain or snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Key Messages:
- Main concern with the potential for some snow accumulations
tonight into Wednesday morning for parts of north-central
Wisconsin.
Soggy conditions continue through tomorrow and into Thursday as
the low pressure system tracking just to our southeast continues
to slide northeastward. 500mb wave energy and isentropic upglide
provide plentiful lift to the region, especially central
Wisconsin, tomorrow morning. The main forecast question is what
precipitation type will fall across central Wisconsin tomorrow
morning and if snow, how much? The diurnal cycle brings
temperatures in southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin into the
low to mid 30`s around 12Z tomorrow morning allowing for the
potential of accumulating snow, especially in Taylor County. Any
snow in southeast Minnesota looks to be impact free with a trace
of snow on grassy surfaces possible. A few inches of accumulating
snow is possible in Taylor County, but with warmer road
temperatures and intermittent rain, limited impacts are probable
with most of the accumulations occurring on grassy surfaces. The
timing of the snow will align with the morning commute, however. A
transition back to rain as daytime temperatures warm a couple
degrees mid morning is expected. A rain/snow mix is also possible.
Elsewhere, periods of rain with cool temperatures highlight
tomorrow`s forecast.
The upper level low is still expected to be spinning over the
Upper Midwest Wednesday night before pulling out over the eastern
Great Lakes Thursday. This will allow a brief period of ridging to
move in for Thursday night before a deepening system drops in
from the northwest for Friday and Friday night.
The upper level low over the area for Wednesday night into
Thursday will still be producing sufficient forcing for
precipitation. However, this forcing may be starting to diminish
through the night as the low starts to move off to the southeast
as it starts to pull out. The short wave trough that wraps around
the north side of the low Wednesday into Wednesday evening will
drop south of the area allowing the best pv advection in the
500-300 mb layer to be south/southeast of the area. The persistent
isentropic up glide on the 290K surface on the east and north
side of the low level system will continue over the northern
sections of the area but will be diminishing in strength and
starting to slowly move more toward the central and southern
sections of the area. The precipitation type will be a concern
with several factors coming into play including boundary layer
temperatures, weakening forcing and potential loss of ice aloft.
Boundary layer temperatures look to be cold enough to support
mainly snow across the north and for parts of southeast Minnesota
but as the system begins to pull out, weakening forcing and drying
aloft, ice aloft in the clouds becomes more questionable which
will lead to a wintry mix of some rain/snow/freezing rain
occurring. Fortunately by this time not much in the way of
precipitation amounts are expected, so if any freezing rain does
occur the impacts should be pretty minor and likely limited to
colder, elevated surfaces. With the wintry mix, any snow
accumulations would also be minor limiting any potential impacts.
The models look to be trending toward a stronger system dropping
quickly across the region Friday. This system should be topping
the upper level ridge over the Canadian Rockies Thursday and then
quickly drop southeast in behind the departing system causing the
current weather. All the models are showing the system deepening
as it comes in, bu there are some latitude differences in the
potential track along with whether the main short wave trough will
be on the north or south side of the upper level low. These
differences translate into how much forcing may or may not occur
to produce precipitation. Right now, with it coming through during
the day, most of the precipitation should just be rain anyway
with the possibility of a bit of wintry mix when the boundary
layer is cold enough to support it. After this system moves by,
ridging and quiet weather then looks to be in place for the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Predominantly IFR to LIFR conditions persist for the TAF period
owing to widespread rain and low ceilings. Brief periods of MVFR
ceilings are possible during the day at LSE. Light snow may mix
in across southeast MN, but impacts should be minimal. Additional
snow may fall towards MDZ, with several inches possible during
the morning. Winds back from the east to the north overnight at 5
to 15 kts, with occasional gusts to 20-25 kts, especially west of
the Mississippi River.
Looking ahead, IFR/LIFR restrictions look to linger into Thursday
morning, with some improvement possible Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Skow
DISCUSSION...KAA/04
AVIATION...Skow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1019 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide east of the area tonight, as a low
pressure system approaches from the Midwest. A dry airmass in
place will keep the precipitation at bay through Wednesday
morning, but rain will overspread the area Wednesday night. Some
pockets of freezing rain will impact parts of the Catskills and
the southern Tug Hill region Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The unsettled weather will continue, with more winter-
like conditions expected later in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1010 PM Update...
No significant changes to the near term forecast with this
update. Temperatures are on track, currently falling into the
upper 20s and 30s across most of the area. Temperatures should
fall several more degrees before thicker clouds arrive during
the predawn hours and allow temperatures to level off.
Therefore, kept overnight lows very similar to the previous
forecast.
710 PM Update..
Lowered temperatures a few degrees for tonight as very dry dew
points, light winds and just high clouds (at least initially)
should allow temps to drop fairly fast later this evening. Used
a NBM and BCCONSALL blend for the forecast lows...which gave low
to mid-20s east of I-81 in CNY, and upper 20s to lower 30s west
of I-81 in CNY & all of NE PA. Do have some mid to upper 10s
readings forecast for NE Oneida county.
Some of the guidance was actually much colder than this update
still; such as the ADJMAV and ADJECM, which were suggesting
lows in the low to mid-20s, with mid to upper 10s across the
eastern zones. The ADJMET was the coldest, suggesting lows 15-25
areawide. How low we go will depend on just how much of a factor
the broken high clouds are, and if we can even get a few breaks
in these thin clouds.
Otherwise, only very minor tweaks to the near term forecast for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Still watching for a few
sprinkles or sleet pellets late tonight into Wednesday morning
across Steuben County and the western Finger Lakes but as
mentioned below it`s unlikely to be measurable QPF.
Still seeing the potential for freezing rain across the Southern
Catskills, parts of Otsego, Oneida and perhaps the northeast
Poconos Wednesday night as well. Only minor adjustments to
temps, QPF, WX and ice grids for this period.
330 PM Update...
Surface ridge axis bisects the area this afternoon, with breezy
NW to NNW winds affecting the Catskills and Poconos. See Fire Wx
section for more details.
As high pressure slides to the east overnight, winds will shift
to the east and southeast, though the orientation of the ridge
axis will keep the low levels rather dry, with maritime air
staying over southern PA/NJ. Warm advection aloft and steepening
isentropic lift will result in slow top-down moistening of the
atmosphere. Most models keep things precip-free through the
morning. Most CAMs show a band of simulated reflectivity taking
shape with the isentropic lift, but with no QPF (except some
HRRR runs). Model soundings and overall pattern supporting a
continued supply of dry advection suggest low accumulated precip
potential and more likely virga through at least midday.
Light rain chances increase north of the Thruway through the
day, and slowly creep higher from SW to NE. Precip chances
really ramp up quickly during the overnight hours as a shortwave
trough moves in from the southwest.
Precip type may be tricky late Wednesday night across the
Catskills, northern Oneida County, and into the headwaters of
the Susquehanna basin. Maritime air will start creeping
northwards towards the Delaware River as high pressure shifts
off the New England coast, and trajectories improve, but weak
surface low development near the Jersey shore may cause low
level winds to back a bit, keeping a drier/continental flow in
place over most of upstate NY. As precip develops, low level
temps will drop due to evaporative cooling, with just enough
dry air advection to keep the process going and allowing temps
to drop below freezing in places. Meanwhile, stronger, moist
southerly flow will keep temperatures above freezing aloft, with
freezing rain possible. This will likely be limited to portions
of northern Oneida, eastern Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan
Counties. If things set up just right, ice accumulation amounts
over 0.10 inches are possible. Better risk will be along the
east slopes of the Catskills, and given the uncertainty, we held
back on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM Update:
An upper level trough continues to move east into the region on
Thursday with a new coastal low forming along the triple point from
the occluded Great Lakes low. With a 500 mb vort max moving in from
the west along with the deepening coastal low with favorable jet
dynamics, Chances of precipitation was increased late Thursday into
Thursday evening with much better lift over the region.
Once the coastal low develops, it quickly propagates into New
England for later Thursday night with decreasing chances of
precipitation as a dry slot moves in. Cold air advection takes over
on Friday with decreasing temperatures in the mid atmosphere. With
some pockets of clearing likely given the forecast soundings, some
weak instability develops with scattered showers developing in the
late morning into the afternoon. With steep low level lapse rates
and the little bit of CAPE getting above the freezing line some of
the heavier showers could contain ice pellets with an outside chance
of some thunder. With the freezing line only at about 2500 to 3000
feet, the summits of the Catskills will likely see snow showers and
with some upslope enhancement of precipitation there could be some
accumulating snow as well.
Another 500 mb vort max approaches Friday night with a reinforcing
shot of cold air. Weak instability persist into the evening as the
lapse rates stay steep under the CAA. Without the day time heating
showers will be less numerous overnight though with the freezing
level dropping the snow level will drop to valley floors by Saturday
morning with little to no snow accumulation expected Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 PM Update:
The long term is looking unsettled and cold. 850 mb temperatures
likely stay below freezing with temps as low as -18C late Sunday
into Monday so highs will struggle to get to near freezing Sunday
and Monday. 500 mb height anomaly means in the NAEFS area already 2
sigma below climatology but there is still some spread in the
ensembles on where the coldest pocket of air will be so left temps
to the NBM rather than lowering the temperatures closer to the 25
percentile for the late weekend into early next week. Also with the
longer days and higher sun angle it is starting to get difficult to
get temperatures to stay in the low to mid 20s during the afternoon.
Forecast soundings show a shallow cloud depths with the cold air and
thus likely breaks of sun allowing some heating and temperatures
likely slightly warmer than what models are showing for Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Lake effect snow is also a concern with the ice
cover mostly gone with the recent warmth and the lake temperatures
up ever so slightly so chances of precipitation were raised to a
chance from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning. Wind direction
and band organization is uncertain at this time though some
accumulating snow is likely somewhere across the Finger Lakes region
into northern CNY. A slow warming trend begins mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 pm update...
VFR looks to hang on through the period. High clouds tonight
slowly drop to 5k feet Wednesday afternoon.
Northwest to north winds at 5 to 10 kts diminish further to 5 or
less this evening. Winds shift to the east then southeast
Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon speeds increase to 10 kts with
higher gusts.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Friday...Occasional restrictions likely
with periods of rain.
Friday night through Sunday...Occasional restrictions likely
with scattered rain and snow showers, shifting towards lake
effect snow by Sunday.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MPH
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MPH
SHORT TERM...AJG/BJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1011 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will slowly move northeast across the Midwest
tonight into Wednesday, lifting a warm front north across the
region. The front will transition to an occluded front by late
Wednesday, followed by a cold front Thursday into Friday. A trough
will linger across the region Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Minor tweaks to PoPs this evening to reflect current rain
coverage. Coverage will increase overnight to categorical PoPs
across the region.
Previous Discussion...
Another round of light rain showers is entering west-central OH this
afternoon, though persistent dry air remains in place across much of
north-central and northeast OH. Slightly better low-level moisture
will be present across NW OH which will allow for more persistent
and widespread rain showers this evening, though amounts should
remain relatively light. By late tonight into tomorrow morning, a
southerly 40 to 50 knot low level jet will develop, moistening the
low-levels across much of northern OH and allowing for a more
widespread and steady rain as a warm front lifts north and east
through the area.
The attention then turns to the potential for severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and evening across northwest and north-central
in a high shear, low CAPE environment. Large hail, strong winds, and
even a tornado or two are possible.
Behind the warm front, warm air advection will allow a narrow
corridor of upper 50 to perhaps near 60 dew points to return across
northern OH. The HRRR is the most aggressive with higher dewpoints,
with a swath of values of 60 to 61 along the I-71 and I-77
corridors. A mid-level dry slot will accompany this warm air
advection, steepening mid-level lapse rates to 6 to 6.5 degrees
C/km. Partial clearing is possible along the I-71 corridor by late
morning/early afternoon following the morning precipitation which
would lead to further destabilization and steepen low-level lapse
rates. 0 to 6 km shear values will be very strong, greater than 80
knots. Instability will be at a premium for this event, generally
less than 1000 J/kg. The main severe threats will be large hail and
gusty winds, noted by long and straight hodographs, especially
across northwest OH. The best potential for any rotating updrafts
and thus tornado potential would be along the leading edge of the
CAPE gradient and/or occluded front, especially across north-central
and northeast OH where an exceptionally-strong low-level wind
field is in place with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 to 300 m2/s2.
An SPC Day 2 slight risk is in place for the severe potential
across much of northwest and north-central OH, though wouldn`t
be surprised to see an eastward progression in future updates.
Precipitation will quickly diminish Wednesday evening and
overnight across the area, and with it, the risk of severe
weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry slot will provide a brief period of dry weather or reduced
coverage of showers Thursday morning before the upper-level trough
pivots into the region. The longwave trough will stretch well to the
southwest of the local area, with several shortwaves pivoting around
the trough through Friday. This will lead to an unsettled and dreary
end of the week with scattered light showers possible across the
entire CWA, especially across NE OH and NW PA on Friday.
A cooling trend is expected through the end of the week, with
Thursday`s highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and Friday`s highs in the
mid 40s to near 60 degrees. Overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s Thursday night will fall into the low to mid 30s by Friday
night. Snow may mix with rain across the higher terrain of NE OH/NW
PA by the end of Friday night, but nothing of impact expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on
Saturday, resulting in yet another uptick in precipitation.
Temperatures will continue to cool through the period and this will
introduce potential for rain/snow showers Saturday morning and
evening. Guidance is still hinting at lake effect snow as the low
opens up into a trough to the east of the area Saturday night into
Sunday. Still too far out to discuss specifics with snow
accumulations, but will continue to monitor and provide updates as
the week progresses. Scattered precip across the snowbelt will
likely dissipate as moisture decreases Monday. Guidance becomes
inconsistent towards the end of the period, but another round of
precip is possible by Tuesday.
Cool temperatures will persist through the period, with highs in the
40s over the weekend. Highs across NW PA will likely dip into the
30s on Sunday and Monday before temps recover into the mid 40s to
lower 40s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s
over the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mostly VFR conditions remain across the area with mid-level
clouds, but rain is beginning to enter and with the more
cohesive bands of rain in NW OH, some MVFR visibility is
starting to appear. Rain across Indiana will slide east and will
fill in across the airspace overnight, allowing for lower clouds
to MVFR and visibility in rain to drop to MVFR. There could be
some pockets of IFR into Northwest and North Central Ohio during
the mid-to-late morning hours and have some brief IFR mentions.
This first round of rain will clear the region but residual
ceilings should remain across the area. There could be some
brief breaks during the early afternoon but didn`t get cute in
the TAFs. Another round of rain should enter the area by early-
to-mid afternoon and there could be some thunder potential with
this round and have a VCTS mention everywhere for now. Winds
will start easterly before shifting around to the southeast
through the day on Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of rain Wednesday night
through Saturday. Rain may mix with wet snow at times on
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly to northeasterly winds 15 to 20 knots are expected through
tonight, with winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the open waters
and western basin later this evening. Guidance has trended slightly
higher with winds tonight, resulting in the issuance of a Small
Craft Advisory to Conneaut, OH. Winds and waves may be somewhat
marginal east of Vermilion, but already seeing marine zones as
far east as Geneva-on-the-Lake experiencing sustained winds of
20 to 25 knots. Slightly concerned with the potential for
lakeshore in the western basin with northeasterly fetch, but not
confident enough to issue any headlines at this point. Water
levels briefly rose at Toledo this afternoon, but leveled off as
winds decreased. Will need to keep an eye on this through
tonight.
Winds become southeasterly by early Wednesday, focusing
the highest winds and waves outside of the nearshore zones.
Winds will then become southwesterly Thursday and expect wind
speeds of around 10 to 17 knots through late Friday. Winds shift
to the northwest and increase to around 20 knots Saturday
through Sunday, which will introduce the next significant chance
of a Small Craft Advisory.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>148.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Maines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
951 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Snow, rain, freezing rain, and some sleet continued over the
Northland with the mix mostly occurring over portions of northern
Wisconsin with mainly snow over northern Minnesota. Based on
current temperature trends, observed precipitation type, and
forecast RAP soundings, we issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
Sawyer County in northwest Wisconsin and increased ice amounts
over Price County. We tossed the idea around of upgrading Price
and Iron Counties to a warning but seem to be just shy on those
thresholds. We do mention up to a quarter inch of ice over Price
County.
We have seen some higher snowfall totals in spots, with
International Falls reporting a bit more than eight inches as of
745 PM. We did increase snow ratios as well as QPF over northern
Minnesota but for most areas the increased snowfall totals were
not significantly higher. The rest of the headlines were left as
is for now.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 501 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Summary: A messy spring storm will continue to affect the
Northland for tonight into tomorrow with northwest Wisconsin
seeing lingering effects into Thursday morning. A clipper moves
through on Friday before dry and cool conditions take over for the
weekend.
A large area of low pressure was located near Kansas City this
afternoon with a trough/pseudo cold front extending northward to
another area of low pressure in Manitoba. These features were at
the leading edge of a longwave trough across the Nation`s
midsection. An expansive area of precipitation was located along
and to the east of the trough/cold front stretching from southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin northward into western Ontario. A
rain/snow line extended from the St. Cloud area northeastward to
near Hinckley to just north of Ashland. A zone of freezing rain
was located in the vicinity of this line as well. As the area of
low pressure to the south slowly moves north-northeast tonight and
Wednesday, the rain, snow and wintry mix will persist across much
of the region. Most of the additional ice accumulation looks to
occur over the remainder of this afternoon and evening, primarily
near the head of Lake Superior into northwest Wisconsin.
Much of northeastern Minnesota will remain all snow tonight
with lingering pockets of freezing rain or rain/snow mix mainly in
the Twin Ports area and I-35 corridor as a wintry mix persists
across northwest Wisconsin. Rain, snow and wintry mix will end
from west to east across northeastern Minnesota through the day
Wednesday as the wintry mix continues through the night before
tapering off around sunrise Thursday. Overall, QPF will be lighter
on Wednesday and the higher March sun angle should help keep
travel conditions more manageable through the day. Additional
snowfall of 1 to 4 inches will be seen across much of northeastern
Minnesota through Wednesday with higher amounts to 9 to 14 inches
along the North Shore from near Two Harbors to Grand Portage. The
highest amounts are expected from Grand Marais to Grand Portage
where colder air and lake-enhancement will combine through tonight
to produce heavier snow. Across northwest Wisconsin, snowfall
amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected with higher amounts to 5 to
7 inches possible along the higher terrain of the Bayfield
Peninsula. Snowfall by the end of the storm will most likely come
out much lower than this given the potential for rain and mix to
eat away at the snow and through compacting of the heavy, wet
snow. A glaze of ice will be possible at times with scattered
pockets up to around a tenth of an inch, mainly this evening and
tonight.
Mainly dry conditions take over for Thursday as temperatures warm
into the upper 30s and 40s. A clipper system will then slide
through for Friday and bring another round of wintry mix to the
region. Snowfall amounts of a few inches will be possible in
spots, mainly north, but temperatures and p-type will be in play
and may hold down accumulations. High pressure then builds in for
the weekend and will continue into Monday with near to below
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Widespread IFR or lower conditions covered most of the Northland
thanks to an area of low pressure that extended well north of a
center in western Missouri. Rain, snow, and sleet have been
reported over northern Wisconsin with mostly snow over central
into northern Minnesota. The low will be slow to move and the
precipitation will stick around for most areas through the
period. Western portions of the Northland will see the
precipitation end or become much lighter tonight. Winds will back
to northerly tonight into Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 501 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
A strong spring storm will affect western Lake Superior through
much of the period. Winds will diminish a bit tonight into
Wednesday morning, but will continue to gust to around 25 knots
from the northeast. As the low approaches tomorrow morning, winds
will increase to 15 to 25 knots with gales to around 35 knots.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into tomorrow morning
before transitioning to Gale Warnings for most of the day. Winds
will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure
builds in, but additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as winds and waves
ramp down. Periods of rain, snow and freezing rain will persist
through Wednesday night as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 35 27 40 / 100 70 40 10
INL 26 38 20 45 / 100 20 0 0
BRD 30 38 27 46 / 90 30 10 0
HYR 30 37 27 42 / 100 90 40 10
ASX 31 34 29 38 / 100 100 80 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ001>004-
008-009.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ010-018-
019-025-026-037.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ011-012-020-
021.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>148-
150.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melde
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...BJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1012 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture ahead of the cold front will cross the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia on Wednesday, bringing widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms to the region. Cooler air will
begin spilling into the region on Friday, with additional
disturbances arriving over the weekend from the northwest and
reinforcing the cooler air across the area. Light accumulating
snowfall will be possible across the higher ridges of the North
Carolina mountains over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 945 PM: A mature cyclone is present over the eastern Great
Plains, with sfc low pressure centered over Missouri. This system
will occlude as it moves toward the Great Lakes through Wednesday,
dragging a cold front across the Carolinas by afternoon. The
plume of moisture and southerly flow into the system drove the
development of a QLCS in the lower MS Valley earlier today, which
grew more organized than most CAMs depicted. While that feature
has weakened nocturnally and as it has moved away from the sfc
cold front (over AR/LA), a weak linear convective feature remains
within a broad rain shield. Its motion has remained fairly steady
through the afternoon and early evening, and while the convection
itself should continue to weaken, the remnant rain shield looks
to reach our westernmost zones by about 05z. This is considerably
faster than we had originally forecast, but short-term guidance
has been handling this poorly as noted above. How well the rain
shield holds together appears questionable; it will be associated
with a 50+ kt LLJ but MUCAPE is not shown to rise as fast as
the winds will. However terrain forcing should only continue to
increase thru the remainder of the night, and earlier expectation
of a rapid increase in rain coverage in the predawn hours still
looks good. With this update have just brought the onset of PoPs
up a bit, especially in our west, to match extrapolated radar
timing. Stayed a bit conservative given remaining differences
in guidance depiction. Highest QPF still is anticipated from 06Z
to 18Z Wednesday, centered on the south-facing Escarpment, with
rainfall rates tapering off toward midday as deeper forcing and
moisture pass to the east.
The severe threat could still go both ways. On one hand, the
operational GFS depicts 300-500 J/kg SBCAPE across the Piedmont and
Upstate on Wednesday afternoon, and the LLJ should provide some
measure of shear to effect a bit of organization in these cells.
Further, ensemble plumes suggest that significantly more SBCAPE
will be possible, especially across the eastern tier. However,
there are hints in model soundings - from at least the NAMnest,
GFS, and SREF mean - that the rainfall through Wed morning will
help maintain stability in or just above the PBL, and without
enough late morning clearing this stable layer will persist into
the afternoon, preventing many surface parcels from realizing
their instability. These concerns seem more justified in light
of earlier arrival of rainfall tonight and with the newest HRRR
and NAMNest solutions (which did finally catch up to reality
in representing the current convection) showing less convection
Wednesday. Though the LLJ will depart to the east by afternoon,
shear parameters still look pretty good across the whole area. The
low-level lapse rates remain the mitigating factor. A narrow region
of overlap between instability still appears most likely across
the eastern Piedmont counties, if not areas further west.
All things considered, widespread heavy rain seems likely into
morning, with scattered thunder likely across the southern half
of the CWA Wednesday afternoon and lower confidence on a few
severe storms or even a rogue supercell across the eastern zones
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The associated wind threat
looks more or less unchanged. Advisory-level gusts still forecast
across the higher elevations as 850mb gradient flow passes over
the Appalachians, but no changes have been made to the existing
wind advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: Wednesday night into Thursday will be the
storms last gasp. If it has not already pushed through the region,
the cold front will slide east of the area late Wednesday evening
with isolated shower activity at best in its wake. The trough axis
will remain camped out to our west through Thursday night. Resulting
southwesterly flow atop the region will likely lead to only slow
improvement of low clouds and fog Thursday morning into the
afternoon for some areas. Otherwise a pocket of drier air aloft
should support a return partly to mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon.
The trough axis will bulldoze through the region Friday leading to a
long duration of northwest flow in its wake through the weekend.
Confidence in the details remain below normal during this time
frame. Periods of isolated to scattered northwest flow showers are
expected with potentially more widespread coverage with strong
impulse later Saturday into Saturday night. A modified arctic airmass
will support a late season snow at higher elevations focused near
the TN border by Friday night, with snow levels possibly dipping
into higher valley floors by Saturday night should showers linger
during this time. East of the mountains expect drier conditions and
less in the way of clouds except for a few isolated showers possible
with the stronger impulse Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures
will crash from just above normal Thursday to well below normal
(especially mountains) Saturday and Sunday. Gusty northwest winds
are expected to prevail this weekend, potentially reaching advisory
level in the mountains, adding to the chill.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday: Confidence in the exact weather pattern
early next week takes a nose dive, although not expecting a
significant impact on apparent weather. Overall we should see
building heights as a short-wave ridge builds behind the finally
departing trough with temperatures recovering back to normal at
least. Some guidance develops a weak, low pressure system along a
narrow warm frontal zone early next week which would lead to mostly
cloudy skies for a period focused across the mountains and perhaps
even some light rain. However, this is the exception, with partly
sunny skies the most likely outcome. The prolonged period of dry
conditions following Wednesdays rain could lead to a return to
elevated fire danger, especially east of the mountains should
sufficiently low relative humidity and/or windy conditions return,
which could be in the cards.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR thru early morning. Moist upglide regime
will introduce lower clouds first along the Blue Ridge Escarpment
but eventually at all sites, by daybreak. A decaying MCS across
Alabama at issuance time will track NE into the region in the
early morning hours, along with a plume of deep moisture and
forcing driven by low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley. This
is likely to bring precip to all sites for a time in the morning,
with IFR cigs generally expected to develop after onset of precip,
with visibility more likely to stay MVFR. Still think this activity
may have a stabilizing effect, keeping any TS scattered at best,
but with sfc cold front remaining west of the terminals until
after peak heating, retained PROB30s for TS impacts during the
daytime hours. Widespread improvement in flight conditions is not
expected until after the end of this period. Strong midlevel winds
warranted hitting gusts hard in the TAFs.
Outlook: Clearing is expected Thursday into Friday. Low-level
moisture and NWly flow will bring an increase in clouds and
potentially some light precipitation to the Carolinas late Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
NCZ048-051-052-058.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...Wimberley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.. MESOSCALE UPDATE 4 PM...
There have been some interesting trends developing in the most
recent HRRR models and the satellite features. Mainly of note is
the continued presence of a surface low further south than
anticipated yesterday and this feature is still evident in the
models and the surface winds and observations. The LL 850 jet is
now squarely over our area encompassing all of SE LA, S MS, and
some of coastal MS. The most recent runs of the CAMS are less
excited about the discrete cells ahead of the line and are
refocusing on the squall line itself. There are showers ahead of
the line but they are barely producing any lightning. The 18z
sounding still shows that we have no cap and plenty of
instability, as well as plenty of strength and directional shear.
It seems that the main limiting factor is deep layer lift. Even
the front is behind the main line with the deep lift back in
eastern Texas. As well, the dry air intrusion seen on water vapor
could be hindering any deep development in the squall line.
Overall, we have to keep monitoring this line as it moves into a
favorable environment for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes
embedded within the line. The main threat may end up being flash
flooding if this line continues to train more SW to NE. As well,
the winds outside of thunderstorms are continuing to increase with
wind gusts of 40-50 MPH across the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The front and associated thunderstorms will continue to move
through the MS counties overnight and be out of the southern MS
counties by sunrise on Wednesday. While the deep upper trough
won`t come through until Wednesday night, we`ll see the effects of
the cold front tonight through Thursday. Lows tonight will drop
into the upper 40s to middle 50s. Wednesday will be dry and mostly
sunny with highs in the lower to upper 60s. While the deeper
trough starts to come through with clear skies, lows Wed night
will be in the lower 40s to the north and lower 50s along the
coast. Temps will warm slightly Thursday but lows will stay
similar to Wed night lows.
Long Term (Friday through Tuesday)...
Upper ridging will remain primarily over the Rockies through the
weekend with heights slightly rising over the local area. At the
surface, high pressure over the Plains States Friday morning will
gradually work eastward and be centered off the east coast of
Florida by Monday. With no significant onshore winds until at
least Monday, if that soon, the threat of precipitation will be
very low through at least Tuesday.
With dry air in place, morning lows this weekend will be on the cool
side, roughly 5-8F below normal for several mornings. Highs likely
to be pretty close to normal through the weekend, then as onshore
flow returns on Monday, it should lead to high temperatures moving
into the 80s for midweek next week.
AVIATION...
Gusty southeast winds with sustained 20+ knots and gusts exceeding
30 knots. While SHRA could occur at any time, will limit TSRA for
now, to a 2 hour window with main band of convection. Localized IFR
and potential for gusts exceeding 40 knots with main band of
convection. Improvement will occur several hours behind main
convection.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory will remain as posted. Winds will
continue to increase through the day today then shift to W and
remain elevated on the back side of the front swinging through early
Wednesday, and will slowly ease going into Wednesday
afternoon/night. Some extension of the advisory may be possible if
waves/seas remain elevated. Surface winds remain breezy through late-
week, but nothing significant in regards to impacts even going into
early parts of next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 66 41 70 / 70 0 0 0
BTR 48 67 43 72 / 30 0 0 0
ASD 53 69 44 72 / 90 0 0 10
MSY 53 67 49 71 / 100 0 0 10
GPT 56 69 46 70 / 80 0 10 10
PQL 58 69 45 69 / 90 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
LAZ066>070-075-076.
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>050-
071-072-075-076.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
MSZ080>082.
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077-080.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
935 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...This will be strictly and update on the
ongoing severe weather event. We are currently in a lull across
our area as we appear to be sandwiched in-between two waves. The
first wave is currently lifting out over northern Alabama and was
the cause for the earlier tornado warnings across interior
southwestern Alabama and far interior southeastern Mississippi. As
this jet streak lifted out, we have noticed subtle height rises
and a weakening trend across most of the area. However, the event
is far from over as a second wave is currently rounding the base
of the main trough. This was noted by a 120 knot subtropical jet
moving out of southern Texas into the western Gulf of Mexico. This
jet will begin to nose into the back of the line of storms
currently situated across western Perry and Stone counties. As
this jet noses in, expect storms to uptick once again in intensity
and coverage as low level mass fields respond to the impulse. Along
with this, the current ripe warm sector mainly situated west of
I-65 will spread east northeastward after midnight expanding the
area of potential severe weather into the northwest Florida
Panhandle and south central Alabama. This is also supported by
recent high-res model guidance and the experimental Warn On
Forecast (WOFS) guidance. Severe threat will be maximized mainly
along the coast with areas west of I-65 likely seeing the best
threat now through midnight and then areas east of I-65 seeing the
best threat midnight through 4 am onward.
The environment within this warm sector is about as ripe as you
can get for severe weather. Current VAD wind profiles from KMOB
and KEVX show some a shear rich environment with 0-1 km SRH of 300
to 400 and bulk effective shear in the 40 to 50 knot range which
will support supercells capable of damaging winds and tornadoes (a
few could be strong). The main limiting factor tonight would be
instability. With the great heat lamp in the sky now turned off
for the night we are going to purely reliant on moisture advection
and lift allowing for the steepening of the mid-level lapse rates
to generate instability. Based off the 00Z LIX sounding and rap
analysis, this appears to not be an issue and as I write this
storms have begun to perk back up over Mobile Bay. Instability
might be a little bit of an issue further north; however, as the
aforementioned surface fluxes increase the instability should
improve northward. To add on with the highly sheared environment,
streamwise storm relative helicity begin ingested into any
supercells would help overcome any weak low level instability
issues. We have given a break to catch our breaths but we urge not
to let your guard down overnight tonight especially if you have
not seen any severe weather yet. Be sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings that will wake you up overnight. BB/03
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for
ALZ263>266.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT Wednesday night for ALZ265-
266.
FL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT Wednesday night for FLZ202-
204-206.
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>636.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
118 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.
High pressure over the region continues to provide dry weather. A
few clouds are spilling over the top of the ridge but not resulting
in much impacts. NBM and HRRR not promising for fog development
tonight. Winds should remain light as well. Temperatures will
continue to warm through Wednesday and the deterministic NBM
continues to be running closer to the 10th percentile on high temps.
In fact, the 50th percentile for Wednesday highs is 5 to 8 degrees
warmer across the Snake Plain into the Magic Valley. So the forecast
is a blend of the deterministic NBM and the 50th percentile. The
deterministic NBM isn`t nearly as much of an outlier on the
overnight lows so let that be.
13
.LONG TERM...Thu through next Tue night. The shortwave at one time
expected to bring showers to parts of the forecast area Thu/Thu
night has weakened considerably and is now expected to do very
little but cause some breezy conditions in the eastern Magic Valley
and southern highlands. The lack of a significant trough should
allow even stronger warming. There is some slight warming trend to
the Forecast Builder builder, but this is consistently colder than
the 25th percentile expectations of the NBM. Have decided to use
50th percentile NBM for maximum temperatures, which brings the
weekend highs to the mid-70s. This will be close to records if the
50th percentile works out. Strong confidence in the forecast ends as
the next weather maker moves into the Great Basin. There is little
agreement on what will happen, although some moisture is likely for
some location in southern Idaho. However, the location and amount of
moisture is very much in question, so have left the broad brush of
the NBM intact for late Sun night to the end of the forecast.
Messick
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure strong enough to keep clouds in the FEW-
SCT range. There is a chance for some low level cloudiness and then
some cirriform cloudiness in the northern airdromes. Wind is mostly
terrain-driven with a weak northerly influence keeping wind in the
afternoon fairly light and variable, especially for KSUN and KDIJ.
Messick
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$