Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/22/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
931 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Minor updates needed, adjusted cloud cover with the clouds moving
east out of the forecast area; blended in the HRRR for this.
Decided not to adjust low temperatures tonight, as model guidance
suggested temperatures staying in the low to mid 20s.
UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
We blended observed trends into the evening forecast with this
update, but overall only minor changes were made. A middle- and
upper-level trough axis is moving through central ND late this
afternoon, and the band of light rain and snow in its preceding
DCVA region that`s been aided by an inverted trough continues to
shift eastward. A much drier low- and midlevel air mass is moving
into the region behind the trough, and will set the stage for a
cool night once the boundary layer decouples and winds subside as
sunset approaches. We may need to reduce forecast lows for tonight
in a later update depending on observed and guidance trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Breezy to windy conditions highlight the short term forecast
period.
Currently, low pressure was situated over eastern South Dakota,
with an inverted trough extending north into eastern North Dakota.
A narrow band of light rain and snow showers was situated to the
west of the inverted trough, from the Turtle Mountains into the
James River Valley. Shower activity was lifting to the northeast.
The cloud shield extended back through central and into western
North Dakota. Mid and high clouds have cleared over western north
Dakota with a nice cumulus field developing over the past hour or
so. It remains breezy over all of western ND, but winds have
become a bit stronger over the clearing areas of the west with a
steep lapse rate and increased convection to bring down the higher
winds aloft. Latest RAP soundings indicate a well mixed boundary
layer to around 700mb with around 25 to 30 knots of wind at the
top of the boundary layer. Looking at the current surface winds
there is a gust to 35 knots at Hettinger with most areas in the
west sustained around 20 knots gusting to between 25 and 30 knots.
With no stronger winds aloft this should be the upper extent of
winds today. Humidities have dropped to around 20 percent over
southwest North Dakota. Previous forecast added mention of near
critical fire weather and will keep this going through the
afternoon and into early this evening. With drier air building
over the area tonight with lows dropping into the lower and mid
20s. Would not be surprised to see some teens in the west if winds
can drop off overnight.
Tuesday will be another breezy to windy day with temperatures
similar to today or just a bit cooler. The strongest winds look to
be south of the area, but it does look like another afternoon
where we mix out and see some near criteria or low criteria winds
for a few hours. With the uncertainty at this time will leave this
for later shifts to evaluate. Afternoon humidities also do not
look quite as high tomorrow either with more of a northerly wind
flow and cooler temperatures. At this time will hold off
mentioning near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Mainly dry and breezy conditions highlight the extended forecast
period.
The upper level trough that brought our light shower activity
today will track south and east of the area tonight. Strong upper
level ridging builds over the area through mid-week. Temperatures
warm a little each day Wednesday and Thursday with highs Thursday
afternoon reaching the lower 60s over the southwest.
A shortwave flattens the ridge and brings a small chance of
precipitation to the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
However the greatest impact on Thursday might be wind and fire
weather concerns in the afternoon over western North Dakota. A lot
will depend on the eventual timing of the associated cold front,
but we will probably see a period of strong winds in the west
Thursday afternoon. Afternoon dewpoints will be lower over
central North Dakota, ahead of the frontal boundary that moves
through the area, but winds will be strongest behind the front. At
this time, any precipitation associated with the front appears
minimal. Will need to monitor for possible wind highlights and
fire weather concerns.
Friday will also be breezy to windy. Humidities will be lower on
Friday across the forecast area, but temperatures will be cooler
and winds will be diminishing in the afternoon as high pressure
settles over the forecast area. Temperatures look to warm over the
weekend with mainly dry conditions until possibly early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Tuesday across western
and central ND. Northwest winds gusting to around 30 kt are
expected to develop area-wide on Tuesday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS/Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
702 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z TAF discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy/Windy conditions will persist across South Texas this
evening, mainly east of the dryline, which was located from just
east of Laredo to Pleasanton. Generally light west winds will
prevail to the west of the dryline. There remains a threat of
showers/thunderstorms along and just east of this dryline this
evening. A few strong storms will be possible given the unstable
atmosphere in place, but its looking less likely that we`ll see
any severe storms given the strength of the capping inversion, dry
air in the mid levels, and weakening surface convergence. A cool
frontal boundary will move through the region after midnight and
off the coast around daybreak. A line of showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible along this front with the best
chances for showers along the coast. Breezy NW winds will prevail
in the wake of the front on Tuesday with gusts to 25 knots
expected. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight ahead of the front
with VFR Conditions in the wake of the front.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Latest surface observations place the dryline from near Kerrville
south to along the LaSalle and McMullen County border and into
far eastern Webb County. LAPS mesoanalysis shows an axis of 1500
to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE from Kingsville-Alice-Three Rivers, but
this area remains strongly capped for now as evidence by no
boundary layer cumulus. Farther west in the Brush Country,
stronger heating is underway with a field of agitated cumulus
between Cotulla and Tilden. This general area east to Live Oak
County will be the main focus for convective initiation in our
area in the next few hours, before expanding into the Victoria
Crossroads and through the Brush Country after sunset. Our region
remains largely displaced of the more favorable mid and upper jets
through tonight, yet with modest height falls preceding the base
of the upper trough tomorrow we expect an uptick in storm
coverage mainly late tonight ahead of a cold front. The HRRR
remains the most bullish with strong/severe storms through the
period, although with increasing CIN tonight this casts doubt on
the efficiency of severe modes relative to this afternoon and
early evening. Although 0-1km shear across our area is relatively
weak, a corridor of 20+ knots is forecast to reside over the
Victoria Crossroads tonight which will be watched closely for
tornadic potential. Otherwise, the cold front will sweep east
toward daybreak Tuesday ending precip chances.
Wind-wise, the high wind warning for Nueces and Kleberg Counties
are set to expire at 7 PM following several hours of sustained 40
mph winds with gusts over 50 mph at times. Winds will continue to
decline through the night, then turn westerly with the dryline and
cold front. Winds by Tuesday morning should already be gusting
to 25 to 30 mph and continue through the afternoon, although a
weaker gradient flow across our NE counties should keep winds
lower there. This along with very low RH values of 15-30% region-
wide spells critical fire weather conditions for much of S TX once
again. After collaboration with neighbors, it was decided to defer
a Red Flag Warning until the next forecast package. No changes of
concern to the inherited temps as the latest NBM remains on track.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The main story during the long term period will be conditions
favorable for fire development and spread continuing across South
Texas.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500 hPa ridge will
build eastward and become centered over the Rockies by this weekend.
Northwesterly flow and deep layer subsidence downstream of the ridge
axis will support dry conditions across South Texas through early
next week. Temperatures will also steadily increase with medium to
high chances (40% to 70+%) of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees
across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains beginning on
Friday.
The NBM indicates low chances (less than 30%) of wind speeds
exceeding 20 MPH during the Wednesday through Friday timeframe.
However, the combination of dry air and mixing will contribute to RH
values falling into the single digits each day. After Saturday, deep
layer moisture and RH values are forecast to slowly increase each
day. Meanwhile, the potential for wind speeds in excess of 20 MPH
will increase to medium (30% to 70%) on Sunday and Monday. Given how
dry fuels are across South Texas, the dry conditions will continue
to support an increased potential for fires throughout the entire
long term period, with the greatest chance for critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday and Monday.
MARINE...
Gale force wind gusts will continue until early this evening over
the bays and waters, then diminish to Small Craft Advisory
levels. Strong southerly flow will begin tapering from west to
east late tonight ahead of a cold front arriving Tuesday morning.
However, seas will remain elevated. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms remain possible this evening, before better chances
develop after midnight through early Tuesday morning as the cold
front moves into the waters ahead of moderate offshore flow. Showers
and storms will end from west to east Tuesday morning as very dry
air arrives. Offshore winds will decrease to 10 to 15 knots
Wednesday afternoon. Seas will slowly subside Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as winds turn to the west to southwest. Onshore
flow will develop Friday afternoon and continue through the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 64 82 48 73 46 / 50 0 0 0 0
Victoria 65 78 42 69 43 / 70 20 0 0 0
Laredo 57 79 47 75 47 / 20 0 0 0 0
Alice 61 83 46 76 44 / 40 0 0 0 0
Rockport 66 79 52 73 50 / 60 20 0 0 0
Cotulla 51 77 41 76 45 / 10 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 63 84 46 74 44 / 50 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 66 81 54 69 53 / 50 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Inland Kleberg...
Inland Nueces...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
For the following zones: Bee...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
Nueces...Duval...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
San Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...
Webb.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
Patricio...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Refugio...
Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Live Oak...Victoria.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning For the following
zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
Islands...Nueces Islands.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Duval...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Jim Wells...
La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday For the following
zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday For the following
zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM.
&&
$$
JM/75...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1029 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Webcams and observations indicate things going about as planned.
Rain as it moves in quickly changes to wet snow as temps drop to
32-33. Large wet snowflakes fall but not in an intense fashion but
enough to coat the grass and cars. Suspect as precipitation moves
east and meets up with area of precipitation that will be
spreading north-northeast from southern MN into north central and
northeastern MN overnight/Tues that the far east will stand the
best chance for 1-2 inches of wet snow, which is what is forecast.
HRRR indicates chances for heavier snow totals east of the fcst
area.
UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Northern stream short wave trough moving ever so slowly east from
northern Saskatchewan and into western Manitoba and central ND.
Area of rain then rain/snow is slowly making its way eastward as
individual elements moving more north in upper level flow ahead of
the short wave trough. Radar is showing a bit more precipitation
than is really hitting the ground but observations have indicated
a rain to start then changing or mixing with snow as temps fall to
near dew point values. Temps stay at 32-33 during the snow and
webcams indicate some light accumulation, mostly on grassy
surfaces. This trend of tracking the precipitation gradually
eastward will continue tonight. Updated pops a bit for timing and
may have to slow it down again.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Precipitation type and amounts are still the main challenges for
the period.
Split flow aloft continues and the water vapor loop shows the
northern branch trough entering western ND. Elongated trough axis
with several low centers stretch from Saskatchewan to
the SD/MN border to the Central Plains. Precip over our western
counties has been a spotty rain/snow mix, although a bit more of a
decent band has started developing over western Eddy county. The
CAMs show this band slowly moving into the Red River Valley by
this evening, then into western MN overnight. Some of the high res
runs and a few of the NBM members have some freezing rain
developing over northwestern MN tonight. Model soundings are not
very impressive with a warm nose, and think the only chance for
any light freezing rain will be if we lose ice in the dendritic
growth layer on the backside of the system as it exits the area.
Do have a bit of that mixing in, but do not think there will be
any ice accumulations over our area at this point.
Snow, on the other hand, should start to accumulate at least on
the grassy surfaces overnight. There are still decent
probabilities of 1 to 2 inches from Lake of the Woods down to
Wadena counties, although probabilities of 4 or more have all but
disappeared as the drier solutions continue to win out. The
models still bring the southern branch shortwave northward into
the midwest, but at this point it seems the better moisture will
miss our area with the heavier precip setting up further east.
Best chances for a tenth or more of liquid accumulation will be
north of Highway 2 and along our eastern CWA border. Probabilities
of a half an inch or more have dropped to less than 20 percent
along the eastern edges of Hubbard and Wadena counties. Will
continue to keep an eye on precip as it develops, but at this
point think we will mostly see light precip and any winter impacts
will be minimal.
There could be some lingering precip Tuesday and into Tuesday
night as another vort lobe from the northern branch trough swings
through, but kept most of the precip limited to the far eastern
tier. There will be some decent cold air advection on the backside
of the system, but just knocking temps back to slightly above
normal instead of well above normal for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The long term period has a couple of periods of potentially low
impacts, however the probability is low. Wednesday will see breezy,
north winds behind the departing early week system. Upper level
ridging then sets up to the west and keeps the area dry through late
Thursday night into Friday, when another wintry mix is possible with
an upper wave breaking down the ridge. A continuation of overnight
lows below freezing and daytime highs in the 30s will set up the
potential for diurnally driven snow-rain as temperatures warm during
the day Friday. Overall, the best forcing and QPF should be north of
the border. Ridging to the west continues for the weekend, with
another system moving across early next week. Warmer temperatures by
Sunday should mean the early week system will be rain as
temperatures range from the upper 30s to near 50 on Monday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Cold front moving into NW MN this efvening with wind shift to the
northwest. Briefly gusty behind the front 12-20 kts. Main area of
rain and snow west of the cold front tied more to the upper level
short wave trough. This has been slowly moving east. As it does
though cigs and vsbys do drop into the IFR range. As it moves
through drier air moves in from the west and conditions improve.
Expect the band of precipitation to stall out in our eastern fcst
area (BJI) overnight into Tues AM and IFR conditions there
overnight into much of Tuesday.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
708 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Biggest forecast challenges and efforts will revolve around the
winter weather system moving through tonight into Tuesday morning.
Deepening upper level trough will provide some short-term strong
synoptic lift overnight into very early Tuesday morning. Hi-res
models are advertising a transition to snow tonight in a band on the
northwest side of the surface low treking through Kansas into
Missouri. Given the strong cold air advection, and potential
moderate to strong intensity of precip rates which would help
encourage a transition to snow, we could accumulate a few inches
in a relatively short period of time. Not as worried by advertised
snow amounts from models, as models tend to drastically
overestimate snowfall for scenarios of liquid precip onset and
very strong winds. The bigger concern, however, is visibility as
the snow falls with winds this strong. A Winter Weather Advisory
seems prudent as the HRRR and RAP indicate that we could be
pushing gusts in the High Wind realm.
Being this late in the season, we could get warm enough Tuesday
morning to transition precip type back to rain before ending. Again,
snow amounts should not be much more than a few inches, given the
initial liquid precip and strong winds, and blowing snow (after the
snow has reached the ground) is not a huge concern, given these
conditions of a wet, warm surface for snow to cling to, and given
how wet the snow is anticipated to be.
Precip should end by late afternoon/early evening Tuesday as the
system pulls east. Models are advertising a closed low in the base
of the aforementioned trough that could keep at least some light
precip over our CWA (especially east), as the trough axis slows down
during its trek east.
After Wednesday, a dry period with moderating temperatures is in
store as the upper level ridge to the west edges east over time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
For the most part, expect IFR to MVFR conditions through the TAF
period. Rain will impact both KEAR and KGRI through the evening,
likely transitioning to snow during the overnight hours. Expect
lower visibility and lower CIGS as this occurs. Surface winds will
be strong with this as well, with northerly winds gusting to 35 to
40 kts. LLWS is also possible at KGRI Tuesday morning. VFR
conditions will return to the TAF sites Tuesday afternoon, but
northerly winds gusting to 35 to 40 kts will persist through the
TAF period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ041-
047>049-061>064-073>077-082>087.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
919 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Rain will develop in Missouri this evening, then will spread
northeastward across central Illinois overnight as low
temperatures drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. After that,
off and on showers will persist Tuesday through Thursday before
drier weather returns by the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Forecast looked good tonight and just some minor adjustments to
pops late this evening and overnight as rain shower chances
increase from the sw. Mid evening surface analysis shows 1000 mb
low pressure over central OK, just SE of Oklahoma City. Meanwhile
a weaker 1009 mb low pressure was over central MN with a cold front
extending southward through central Iowa into nw MO and to
stronger low pressure in central OK. Aloft a deep upper level trof
was over the High Plains with upper level ridging from the western
Great Lakes into the OH/TN river valleys. A veil of mid/high
clouds with bases of 10-20k ft was over CWA, lowest ceilings
around 10k ft in west central IL. Radar mosaic shows widespread
rain showers over MO, with St Louis now getting light rain, while
some thunderstorms over southern MO into AR and a stronger line of
thunderstorms over southeast OK and east Texas.
The HRRR and NAM models appear to be handling the rain showers the
best and followed these models with spreading rain showers ne
across sw half of CWA late this evening from 10 pm to 1 am, and
rest of CWA between 1 and 3 am as low pressure lifts into
southeast KS by dawn. MUCAPEs around 200 J/kg stay south of CWA
overnight so think this will be better area of isolated
thunderstorms chances over southern IL, south of CWA. Models
continue to show a dry punch lifting quickly ne into central and
nw CWA during early and mid Tue morning, while se IL stays in rain
showers longer on Tue morning. Another batch of rain showers to
affect eastern IL Tue afternoon, mainly east of I-55. Rainfall
amounts by 7 pm Tue to range from 0.40 to 0.60 inches over much of
central IL, to 0.75 to 1 inch in southeast IL, with locally higher
amounts by Lawrenceville. After mild highs of 70-75 this
afternoon, temps at 9 pm have cooled into the mid 50s to lower 60s
with SE winds 6-12 mph. Temps only expected to cool into the
upper 40s to lower 50s for lows overnight as SE winds increase
later tonight to 10-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph by
daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
A deep upper low evident on 19z/2pm water vapor imagery over New
Mexico will lift slowly northeastward over the next 24 hours, spreading
rain into central Illinois. Latest regional radar mosaic shows the
leading edge of the initial rain band from near Kansas City
southward to Tulsa lifting north-northeastward. Given this particular
trajectory and the presence of a dry boundary layer across Illinois,
think it will take several hours before showers reach the KILX CWA.
Based on current trends and a very consistent signal from the
HRRR/RAP, have introduced showers across the far SW around Winchester
by 02z/9pm...then further northeast to a Peoria...to Decatur...to
Effingham line by around midnight. Rain will overspread the
remainder of the area overnight before tapering off to scattered
showers by Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts will generally range
from one quarter to one half inch. After the initial rain band
passes, much of central Illinois will just see scattered showers
or drizzle on Tuesday. The exception will be locations along/east
of I-57, which will see a renewed push of showers from late
morning through the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The upper system and its associated surface low will track into
west-central Illinois on Wednesday. As it does, NAM MUCAPE values
will increase into the 400-800J/kg range across at least the
eastern half of the CWA by afternoon. As a result, have gone with
predominant showers with isolated thunder everywhere east of the
Illinois River on Wednesday. As the low lifts further
northeastward, colder air will filter into the region on
Thursday...resulting in high temperatures dropping back into the
40s. Scattered showers will continue in the vicinity of a trailing
surface trough, then will come to an end by Thursday evening.
Friday appears to be a cool/brisk day, but should be dry as
short-wave ridging temporarily builds into the region behind the
departing wave. Several models including the 12z ECMWF feature
a northern stream short-wave approaching from the northwest by
late Friday, which could potentially trigger a few showers by late
afternoon and evening. At this time, have maintained a dry
forecast until better model consistency is achieved. After that,
cool and dry weather is expected next weekend...before temps warm
back into the 60s by next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Main aviation forecast concern will be timing rain and lowering
ceilings into central Illinois late this evening and overnight.
1000 mb low pressure over south central OK, south of Oklahoma
City at 00Z, will lift ne into north central MO by 7 pm Tue, while
lifting a warm front northward into far southern IL and northern
KY. This storm system will spread a band of rain ne into SPI
around 05Z, DEC around 06Z and to the I-74 TAF sites around 07Z.
VFR ceilings this evening, will lower to MVFR after 2-3 hours of
rain and MVFR vsbys will also develop during overnight with the
rain and some fog. A break in the rain showers will occur Tue
morning before more rain showers are possible Tue afternoon
especially east of I-55. Ceilings to lower to IFR later tonight
and early Tue morning, and generally remain IFR through 7 pm Tue.
SSE winds around 10 kts this evening will veer more SE and
increase to 15-20 kts late tonight into Tue with gusts of 25-30
kts. SE winds to diminish to around 10 kts after 23Z Tue. A SE low
level jet of 45-50 kts set up over IN by early Tue evening, so
LLWS should be focused just east of IL just after this TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
803 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Key Message:
- Unsettled weather expected tonight through Wednesday. A transition
to snow is possible Tuesday in western MN, with a slushy
accumulation of snow possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
- A return to near-normal and/or slightly below normal temperatures
on tap for the end of the week into next weekend.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
We`ve seen an impressive warm front lay out across the area to the
east of the surface low that was centered near Granite Falls at
230pm. We`ve managed to squeeze out at least one 70 at Redwood Falls
in the warm sector. There`s a pretty good temperature gradient along
the front, with central MN/northwest WI remaining in the lower 50s
(cooler air also aided by lingering snow cover), with mid/upper
upper 60s to it`s south. We`ve tried to squeeze out some rain to the
north of the warm front in WI, but dry air below 10k feet has kept
this at mainly sprinkles and virga. Precipitation arrives in Earnest
this tonight as highly diffluent upper flow and deeper moisture
arrive. Main change needed for this forecast was to delay how
quickly we move precip into western WI. Once this precip band sets
up late tonight/early Tuesday morning, it is expected to move very
little until Tuesday night.
For QPF, the difficult part of this forecast is there will be an
incredibly tight gradient in QPF on the western edge of the precip
shield. The west edge of the precip shield looks to setup near a
Granite Falls to Staples line. East of this line, widespread QPF
around an inch is expected, west of that line, a tenth of an inch
will be a struggle. If you`re anywhere near that Granite Falls to
Staples line, there`s a huge spread in potential QPF, with not much
of a wiggle resulting in QPF of maybe 0.1" or closer to 1.1".
Probably the biggest headache with this system comes with P-type.
First, looking at forecast soundings, it`s a question of rain or
snow, with freezing rain or sleet looking unlikely in the MPX area.
Again the west edge of the precipitation shield will see
temperatures cool throughout the day due to the persistent lift. The
question is, is this cooling enough to turn us to snow for much of
Tuesday? The HRRR says no and keeps our CWA in the rain bin, but
some of the cooler models, like the NAMnest keep the west edge of
the precip shield as snow through the entire day on Tuesday. To get
an all snow forecast in the grids, we would need to do some pretty
aggressive cooling of temperatures in western MN from both the
CONshort and NBM blended grids. Typically, if a lot of editing is
needed to make snow work, it`s a sign that snow may be tough to come
by. For now, reduced temps enough on the western edge of the precip
shield to get at least a rain/snow mix mentioned throughout the day,
but if everything went just right (or just wrong depending on your
views of snow), a narrow swath of 3-6" of snow is possible from
roughly Granite Falls to Staples, but that looks to be a bit of an
outlier scenario at this time.
Only real change made to the forecast for Tuesday night was to cut
back on PoPs over far western MN, with precip looking to continue
through the night for eastern MN and western WI, with that precip
transitioning for rain to a rain/snow mix over MN.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The storm system that will affect our region over the next couple of
days will be centered near the Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois border
Wednesday morning. This system will also be on a weakening trend as
it slowly moves northeast across the Great Lakes and fills by
Thursday afternoon. Global models are consistent with this forecast
but vary on lingering precipitation on the western edge of the storm
system. Although most of the synoptic scale forcing moves out of our
region by Wednesday morning, weak lift associated with an inverted
surface trough rotating around the upper low centered across the
Great Lakes will continue light precipitation. Deeper moisture is
over western WI, but there is enough residual moisture across the
rest of MPX CWA through Wednesday afternoon to produce light
rain/sprinkles, or a stray flurry or two. Nothing too significant,
but enough to hold down temperatures and create wind chill values in
the 20s/30s as brisk winds from the north continue. By Thursday
afternoon, any residual moisture with this system should have exited
western Wisconsin.
Once this system departs the area, northwest flow aloft will bring
another fast shortwave and area of low pressure to the Upper
Midwest. It will quickly move across the Upper Midwest by Friday
night. Due to the speed of this system, and differences in the exact
location of the surface low/deeper moisture, low PoPs are the best
option. Once we have a better handle on the track of this system, and
where the best warm air advection/isentropic lift resides, the
forecast will remain uncertain with low chances. This system will
also bring down cooler Canadian air leading to a cool forecast on
Saturday before return flow develops late in the weekend and into
early next week.
The overall pattern next week remains uncertain based on the upper
level features. However, it does support at least a impactful storm
system sometime next week. This depends on storm track and phasing
of the northern and southern jet streams.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
We`ve seen an impressive warm front lay out across the area to the
east of the surface low that was centered near Granite Falls at
230pm. We`ve managed to squeeze out at least one 70 at Redwood Falls
in the warm sector. There`s a pretty good temperature gradient along
the front, with central MN/northwest WI remaining in the lower 50s
(cooler air also aided by lingering snow cover), with mid/upper
upper 60s to it`s south. We`ve tried to squeeze out some rain to the
north of the warm front in WI, but dry air below 10k feet has kept
this at mainly sprinkles and virga. Precipitation arrives in Earnest
this tonight as highly diffluent upper flow and deeper moisture
arrive. Main change needed for this forecast was to delay how
quickly we move precip into western WI. Once this precip band sets
up late tonight/early Tuesday morning, it is expected to move very
little until Tuesday night.
For QPF, the difficult part of this forecast is there will be an
incredibly tight gradient in QPF on the western edge of the precip
shield. The west edge of the precip shield looks to setup near a
Granite Falls to Staples line. East of this line, widespread QPF
around an inch is expected, west of that line, a tenth of an inch
will be a struggle. If you`re anywhere near that Granite Falls to
Staples line, there`s a huge spread in potential QPF, with not much
of a wiggle resulting in QPF of maybe 0.1" or closer to 1.1".
Probably the biggest headache with this system comes with P-type.
First, looking at forecast soundings, it`s a question of rain or
snow, with freezing rain or sleet looking unlikely in the MPX area.
Again the west edge of the precipitation shield will see
temperatures cool throughout the day due to the persistent lift. The
question is, is this cooling enough to turn us to snow for much of
Tuesday? The HRRR says no and keeps our CWA in the rain bin, but
some of the cooler models, like the NAMnest keep the west edge of
the precip shield as snow through the entire day on Tuesday. To get
an all snow forecast in the grids, we would need to do some pretty
aggressive cooling of temperatures in western MN from both the
CONshort and NBM blended grids. Typically, if a lot of editing is
needed to make snow work, it`s a sign that snow may be tough to come
by. For now, reduced temps enough on the western edge of the precip
shield to get at least a rain/snow mix mentioned throughout the day,
but if everything went just right (or just wrong depending on your
views of snow), a narrow swath of 3-6" of snow is possible from
roughly Granite Falls to Staples, but that looks to be a bit of an
outlier scenario at this time.
Only real change made to the forecast for Tuesday night was to cut
back on PoPs over far western MN, with precip looking to continue
through the night for eastern MN and western WI, with that precip
transitioning for rain to a rain/snow mix over MN.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
The storm system that will affect our region over the next couple of
days will be centered near the Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois border
Wednesday morning. This system will also be on a weakening trend as
it slowly moves northeast across the Great Lakes and fills by
Thursday afternoon. Global models are consistent with this forecast
but vary on lingering precipitation on the western edge of the storm
system. Although most of the synoptic scale forcing moves out of our
region by Wednesday morning, weak lift associated with an inverted
surface trough rotating around the upper low centered across the
Great Lakes will continue light precipitation. Deeper moisture is
over western WI, but there is enough residual moisture across the
rest of MPX CWA through Wednesday afternoon to produce light
rain/sprinkles, or a stray flurry or two. Nothing too significant,
but enough to hold down temperatures and create wind chill values in
the 20s/30s as brisk winds from the north continue. By Thursday
afternoon, any residual moisture with this system should have exited
western Wisconsin.
Once this system departs the area, northwest flow aloft will bring
another fast shortwave and area of low pressure to the Upper
Midwest. It will quickly move across the Upper Midwest by Friday
night. Due to the speed of this system, and differences in the exact
location of the surface low/deeper moisture, low PoPs are the best
option. Once we have a better handle on the track of this system, and
where the best warm air advection/isentropic lift resides, the
forecast will remain uncertain with low chances. This system will
also bring down cooler Canadian air leading to a cool forecast on
Saturday before return flow develops late in the weekend and into
early next week.
The overall pattern next week remains uncertain based on the upper
level features. However, it does support at least a impactful storm
system sometime next week. This depends on storm track and phasing
of the northern and southern jet streams.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 742 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
VFR conditions to start, but far from it this time tomorrow with a
potent and prolonged system expected to impact the region starting
overnight tonight. Ceilings will lower to MVFR near the time of
precipitation initiation then continue to drop to lower-range MVFR
overnight and to IFR near or shortly after daybreak from west to
east. P-type is expected to be rain for all sites except KAXN, due to
uncertainty in the amount of cold air return on the western side of
the system moving through. At this time, a mixture of rain/snow is
expected so have opted for -RASN for much of the TAF period. However,
should deeper cold air impact western MN more than currently
expected, the p-type may be more solid -SN with more degraded
visibility/ceilings than currently advertised. Winds will settle on
N to E throughout this duration, generally with speeds 5-10kt though
some breeziness at the initiation will eventually settle down.
KMSP...Opted for a rather detailed TAF this issuance but there are
many details to resolve, namely precip start time, ceiling timing and
potential for IFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings are likely for the Tuesday
morning push with IFR conditions likely for the Tuesday evening push.
P-type is expected to be all -RA for MSP, with heavier showers likely
late morning through most of Tuesday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...MVFR/IFR. Lingering -SHRA/-SHSN likely. Wind N 15G25 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
DISCUSSION...BPH
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC