Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/21/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
643 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...The aviation forecast is a bit complicated for the
next 24 hours, but overall, winds and ceilings will both be
impactful to operations. Breezy southeasterly winds will become
less gusty overnight, but remain elevated. The low level jet
really begins to crank late tonight into Monday and winds will be
gusting to near 40 knots by mid morning. Will need to monitor for
low level shear concerns overnight, but for now, models don`t show
significant shear. MVFR ceilings have already begun to develop at
BRO and will soon impact HRL and MFE in the next few hours.
Periods of IFR ceilings will be possible overnight at BRO and HRL.
A dry line approaching form the west will help to bring back VFR
conditions to MFE by mid day Monday, depending on how far east the
dry line pushes, otherwise MVFR can be expected through most of
the day.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The short-term period
will be fairly active for Deep South Texas. Here is a break-down
on the main potential concerns/hazards through Monday night:
Wind Potential...Model guidance and ensembles from the GEFS and
ECMWF continue to indicate an unusual to extreme wind event
occurring on Monday, especially for central and eastern portions
of the BRO CWA. Models are very good agreement that a 45-55 knot
LLJ well setup over much of Deep South Texas beginning late
tonight into early Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen across the Plains and the foothills of the Sierra
Madre Orientals of Mexico, significantly intensifying the pressure
gradient across Deep South Texas by mid-morning. The focus of the
strongest wind speeds/gusts will be along and east of the I-69C
corridor between mid-day and mid-afternoon, where sustained speeds
between 25-35 mph are likely and gusts in excess of 50 mph will
be possible. As such, issued a Wind Advisory for coastal counties,
as well as Southern Hidalgo County, beginning at 10 AM CDT
through 7 PM CDT Monday. The advisory may need to be expanded
westward in later updates. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward
across Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg Counties during the afternoon.
Just how far east itll mix is still not entirely certain at
this time, but winds are forecast to shift west/northwest and
rapidly decrease behind the dryline. Elsewhere, winds will
gradually trend downward Monday evening as the LLJ and surface
trough axis shifts east of the area and the pressure gradient
relaxes.
Thunderstorm Potential...A potent upper-level low/trough will
move over southeast New Mexico/western Texas Monday afternoon.
Southerly low-level flow ahead of the approaching upper-level
system will allow an abundance of low-level moisture to advect
over the area through the morning and day. Strong WAA may cause
light to moderate streamer showers to develop along the lower
Texas coast late tonight into early Monday morning, ending by mid-
morning. Most deterministic and hi-res models show instability
and shear quickly increasing by midday, with MUCAPE values > 1000
J/kg and bulk shear > 40 knots over much of Deep South Texas.
Thunderstorms are initially expected to form along the
(aforementioned) dryline across central/south- central Texas in
the afternoon. However, although the dryline is expected to extend
into western/west-central portions of Deep South Texas in the
afternoon, the liming factor of thunderstorm development for the
CWA will be strong convective inhibition (strong capping
inversion) placed over Deep South Texas. Latest model runs of the
HRRR and 3km NAM show a line segment of strong/severe
thunderstorms developing in the brush country just north of the
BRO CWA mid-late afternoon Monday, but fails to develop storms
farther south due to the strong cap in place. It is possible the
cap may break along the dryline late in the afternoon or early
evening, leading to a few isolated thunderstorms. If this occurs,
storms that do develop have the potential to become strong and
possibly even severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as
the primary threats. This will continued to be monitored over the
next 24 hours. For now, kept in 20-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms, with best chances occurring across the Northern
Ranchlands and the offshore coastal waters Monday evening/night.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): The core of a short wave
trough complex will lift northeast into the Southern High Plains
on Tuesday. Energy will extend southwest along the leading edge of
the trough into the CRP CWA and there will be a small residual
chance of precip sweeping across the Northern Ranchlands and
offshore Tuesday during the early part of the day. Much drier air
will fill in right behind the wind shift, in what will essentially
be a dry line. High pressure will filter in as well, shifting
winds to northwest. The upper energy will shift east Tuesday
afternoon while the main trough axis lingers back over Texas.
There won`t be many other ingredients to work with on Wednesday in
terms of tangible weather, however.
Another short wave trough will bottom out in the base of the
larger scale trough on Thursday before ridging builds in from the
west Thursday night. Said ridging will persist overhead the latter
half of the week and into next weekend.
In the wake of the dry line/front, mainly seasonal weather will
dominate through much of the week with low humidity and cool
nights and mild to warm days. After a warm Tuesday in the 80s,
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and
will then warm back into the 80s (to near 90 west) Friday through
Sunday. Overnight low temps will decrease into the 40s and 50s
Tuesday night through Thursday nights, warming some Friday night
and the weekend nights.
MARINE:
Now through Monday Night: Buoy 42020 reported east winds around
18 knots gusting to around 23 knots with seas slightly under 4
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1410 CDT/1910 UTC. Marine
conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate along the Lower
Texas Coast during the period due to a strong and intensifying
pressure gradient developing over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will persist over the
waters through the remainder of the afternoon. Small Craft
Advisories will begin for the Gulf waters this evening and then
for the Laguna Madre after midnight tonight as winds intensify and
the seas build. Marine conditions then become dangerous on Monday
morning as the pressure gradient increases further. A Gale
Warning has been issued for all of the lower Texas coastal waters
beginning at 11 AM CDT through 7 PM CDT. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed following the expiration of the Gale
Warning.
Tuesday through Friday Night...Strong north winds and high seas
will prevail Tuesday into Tuesday night in the wake of a cold
front. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on the
Laguna madre and will be likely on the Gulf waters. Wednesday and
Thursday will be transition days as winds and seas slowly
decrease. Winds will start to veer to the east as high pressure
slides east, but weak reinforcing high pressure could briefly back
winds more to north Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds from
Thursday night through Friday night will be more from the
southeast to south, however.
FIRE WEATHER:
Monday...No major changes with regards to the potential fire
weather concerns for Monday. An uptick in wildfire activity over
the past few weeks across Deep South Texas has prompted a Fire
Weather Watch for all of Deep South Texas beginning mid-morning
Monday through sunset. Didn`t have enough forecast confidence in
upgrading the Watch to a Red Flag Warning at this time; will let
the next shift evaluate conditions more. Reasoning behind the Fire
Weather Watch is the combination of cured fuels and very strong
winds anticipated through the day. Minimum relative humidity
percentages are expected to remain relatively elevated (20- 40%
west of I-69C, 40-60% east of I-69C) during the afternoon, but the
warm temperatures, very strong southerly winds, and cured fuels
will still pose a major risk of rapid wildfire growth and spread
if a fire does indeed break out.
Tuesday...There will be an elevated fire weather concern on
Tuesday due to low relative humidity values, moderate and gusty
northwest winds and drying fuels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 66 82 65 / 0 20 10 20
BROWNSVILLE 79 69 84 68 / 0 20 10 20
HARLINGEN 79 67 86 66 / 0 20 10 20
MCALLEN 82 67 90 66 / 0 20 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 84 66 97 62 / 0 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 66 72 66 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for TXZ248>257-351-353.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ251-253>257-
351.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ130-
132-135.
Gale Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ170-175.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Monday
for GMZ150-155.
&&
$$
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https://weather.gov/rgv
Aviation Update...69-Farris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1053 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly exit through the Canadian Maritimes
tonight through Monday with upslope rain and snow showers across
the north and a few rain showers possible downstream from the
mountains. Northwest winds will increase on Monday and will be
breezy into Tuesday with a drying trend. High pressure brings
fair weather for much of Wednesday before another broad area of
low pressure brings widespread precipitation Wednesday night
into Friday morning. Unsettled conditions linger through the
weekend as an upper trough will be slow to exit the Northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
947 PM Update...Latest HRRR continues to have a good handle on the
precipitation associated with the upper level trough. If this
timing holds off, the remainder of the precipitation should
shift off the coastline about 06Z-07Z. Thereafter, strong cold
air advection and an increasing northwesterly flow will allow
for upslope conditions to dominate over the northwest facing
higher terrain.
Have upped pops for the next few hours based on these latest
trends. An inch or so of snow may also accumulate across the
higher terrain overnight into tomorrow morning.
836 PM Update...Quick ESTF update to account for current radar
trends and mesoscale guidance. Make minor adjustments to
temperatures and winds.
Prev Update...
Have updated the near term portion of the forecast this
evening. Latest radar imagery and surface observations indicated
plenty of shower activity across the region moving from west to
east. With temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, the ptype
associated with this activity is in the form of rain. This
precipitation is associated with an upper level trough crossing
the region which will exit eastern areas by about 06Z or 07Z.
Thereafter, expect upslope snow showers to dominate New
Hampshire and western Maine. Winds will be on the increase
during the overnight hours as the upper level features exits to
our east in a cold air advection pattern.
Prev Disc...
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows widespread
stratus with some embedded cumulus across the area along with a
few scattered sunny peaks breaking through. The earlier low
stratus has now finally lifted and therefore visibility is
unrestricted across the area. An upper level trough axis is
currently located across upstate NY and will continue to move
eastward into northern New England this evening. Radar mosaic
and surface observations indicate that this trough is resulting
in the development of showers across western NY and northern VT
and this activity will continue to pivot east over the next
couple of hours into our area.
The previously mentioned 500 mb trough will swing through this
evening and result in the development of scattered showers
across northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures aloft as well as at the surface will begin to cool
as winds back to the northwest and therefore rain is expected to
mix with and turn to snow across northern areas as well as
across the mountains. Further to the south, mostly rain is
expected but a few wet snow flakes cannot be completely ruled
out across the Capitol Region of Maine as precipitation ends.
The best chance for precipitation will be from about 9 pm to 12
am before this activity exits the region to the east. The
exception will be across the north where developing upslope flow
will allow for snow/rain showers to continue through the night
and minor accumulations may result. Northwest winds will become
gusty tonight due to increased mixing with gusts up to 25-30 mph
possible for a few hours. Low temperatures tonight will fall
into the 20s across the north to the 30s south as skies
gradually become partly cloudy south of the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A reinforcing cold front will cross the area from the north on
Monday as a somewhat tight pressure gradient sets up over New
England. Downsloping winds south of the mountains will allow for
a partly to mostly sunny day but across the mountains
themselves skies will remain mostly cloudy and there will likely
be continued showers of rain and snow. Froude numbers will be
high tomorrow and therefore extended slight chance PoPs
southward into the foothills due to the potential for some
isolated shower activity to be advected southward. It will be a
breezy day with northwest wind gusts up to 30-35 mph possible
areawide. Locally higher gusts will be possible immediately
downslope of the mountains with a few gusts up to around 40 mph
not out of the question. High temperatures will still be several
degrees above average and range from the 30s across the north
to the 40s and lower 50s south.
Skies will remain mainly clear south of the mountains on Monday
night but we will remain well mixed due to the lingering PGF and
therefore significant radiational cooling is not anticipated.
Despite this, the continued CAA will still allow temperatures to
fall to below freezing in most locations with the north falling into
the teens. A much drier airmass will be working into the region and
therefore expecting snow shower activity across the north to begin
to wane.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The NAO is projected to
be predominantly negative this week into the weekend as upstream
blocking over western Europe slowly retrogrades over the North
Atlantic. This will lead to a slowly exiting upper low to start
the extended forecast period with another slow moving upper
trough/closed low bringing unsettled weather from Wednesday
night into the weekend. The best chances for widespread
precipitation will come late Wednesday night through Friday
morning as one surface low tracks through the Great Lakes with a
secondary low forming near coastal New England. Broad troughing
over the Northeast will bring showery weather over the weekend
with temperatures trending below normal around next Sunday.
Tuesday will feature breezy northwest winds and mostly sunny
skies downstream of the mountains. Upslope flow will maintain
some clouds in the mountains with any rain or snow shower
activity diminishing as a vertically stacked low pulls away into
the North Atlantic. Highs will range from the upper 20s near the
International Border to near 50 degrees along the NH/MA border.
A narrow ridge of high pressure will cross the area Wednesday
bringing fair weather and temperatures in 40s across much of the
area.
Northern New England will start to feel the affects of a slow
moving broad trough/upper low Wednesday night as this upper
level feature sends a surface low into the Great Lakes region.
As this surface low tracks into the Great Lakes an area of high
pressure will be positioned over Quebec setting up a CAD
scenario. This set up will likely bring a variety of p-types
across the interior Wednesday night into Thursday while
southern and coastal areas will likely see mostly rain. At this
time range confidence is low in the evolution of the system and
have stuck with rain or snow wording in the forecast. High
pressure over Quebec will slowly shift over Atlantic Canada
Thursday as the broad upper trough slowly moves across the Ohio
Valley. Global models and their ensembles continue to show signs
of a secondary low forming somewhere across southern New
England Thursday night and tracking this low through the Gulf of
Maine Friday morning. This will favor persistent cold air
across the interior and continued chances for wintry
precipitation Thursday night through Friday. Again confidence
is low on the evolution of this secondary low and resultant
p-types, but there is potential for accumulating snow at least
in the mountains Wednesday night into Friday.
Unsettled conditions will linger over the weekend as a -NAO will
help maintain mean troughing over the Northeast. At this time
precipitation looks showery in nature and primarily confined to
the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions early this evening may briefly
deteriorate to MVFR as a weak wave crosses the area resulting
in lower ceilings and scattered SHRA. The best chance for MVFR
restrictions will be across northern and eastern terminals. VFR
conditions return for most after midnight but MVFR restrictions
will likely linger through Monday across northern terminals such
as KHIE due to upslope SHRA/SHSN. Northwest winds will gust up
to 25-30 kts across all terminals on Monday and Monday evening
before diminishing some Monday night.
Long Term...Mainly VFR is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
Broad low pressure will bring lowering cigs and mostly rain
south of the mountains late Wednesday night into Friday morning.
This will likely bring a mix of periods of MVFR to IFR/LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Increasing offshore flow is expected tonight with
wind gusts up to 25-30 kts late tonight through Monday night.
SCA is in effect until early Tuesday morning.
Long Term...NW winds will bring SCA conditions Tuesday into
early Wednesday morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA
conditions Wednesday. Increasing SE flow ahead of an area of low
pressure will bring a return to SCA conditions Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
940 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Latest obs/trends indicate that the inherited grids/zones are in
good shape as is, thus we should continue to see a quiet night
weatherwise...the proverbial calm before the storm (in this case,
our expected early week potential severe event).
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/
DISCUSSION...
For the 03/21/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
VFR and windy conditions are present at all terminals. Winds will
begin to subside but only slightly as gradient flow continues to
tighten tonight ahead of severe weather Monday/Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings will return from the south, arriving first at BPT at
roughly 12-14Z, and spreading north from there. Winds will also
markedly increase from south to north, increasing first at BPT and
LCH around 14-15Z with sustained winds 20-22 KTS and gusts to
30-34kts possible; then to LFT, AEX and ARA around 16-17Z with
sustained winds 13-18kts and gusts 20-25 KTS possible through the
remainder of the forecast period.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/
SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday night]...
Clear skies are currently being seen throughout the area with near
average temperatures and low relative humidity. Elevated
southeasterly winds will continue into tonight which will help to
bring moisture into the area. Since winds will remain elevated,
significant fog formation will not be expected tonight.
A frontal system will be moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. There is concern as to the timing of the squall line as
well as if the squall line will stall. The HRRR is indicating
that the squall line will remain mostly stationary just west of
our area late Monday into early Tuesday morning before eventually
progressing faster through our area. As such, A Flood Watch has
been issued for late Monday into Tuesday for parts of our area.
Model soundings indicate significant low-level and mid-level
moisture, significant DCAPE, significant speed shear, and some
directional shear. The Storm Prediction Center has most of our
area in an Enhanced risk of severe weather late Monday into
Tuesday with parts of the area in a Moderate risk on Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, flooding, lighting, and tornadoes
will be possible as the frontal system moves through the area.
With winds expected to increase tomorrow with a tightening
pressure gradient as the frontal system approaches the area, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for tomorrow during the day.
After the front passes, drier weather will be expected with
temperatures expected to be near average.
55
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
After all the active weather on Tuesday, things settle quite a bit
for the remainder of the forecast. A dry cold front is expected to
pass through on Thursday, otherwise high pressure dominates the
weather pattern through next weekend.
Temperature wise it will be on the cool side in the morning with
lows in the 40s through Saturday, before a warming trend starts late
in the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.
15
MARINE...
Elevated onshore winds will become stronger tomorrow with an
approaching frontal system. Wave heights will also increase as the
front moves through the area. The stronger winds will be expected
to continue into the middle of the week. A Small Craft Advisory
will be in effect tomorrow into the middle of the week.
55
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
LAZ027-028-030-031-041-042-073-074.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ201-215-216-
261-262.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for
GMZ470-472-475.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
GMZ430-432.
Small Craft Exercise Caution through Monday morning for GMZ430-
432-435.
Small Craft Exercise Caution from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday morning for GMZ430-432.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
GMZ435.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 49 76 62 73 / 0 10 80 90
LCH 53 75 64 75 / 0 20 80 90
LFT 52 78 66 77 / 0 10 60 100
BPT 57 75 62 76 / 0 50 90 80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
LAZ027-028-030-031-041-042-073-074.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ041>045-
052>055-073-074.
TX...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ201-215-216-
261-262.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
GMZ430-432.
Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-
432-435.
Small Craft Exercise Caution from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday morning for GMZ430-432.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
GMZ435.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
900 PM PDT Sun Mar 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and breezy winds are forecast for
Sunday. As a ridge builds, warming and drying trend then sets up
bringing warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s around the Bay Area
by midweek. Temperatures will likely cool next weekend as the
ridge weakens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 09:00 PM PDT Sunday...
Quiet weather prevails with high pressure building into the
region. The going forecast is on track with no changes
anticipated.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 01:57 PM PDT Sunday...It`s a sunny afternoon
for the Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures have already
begun to build into the 60s and a few interior areas will be
expecting highs in the lower 70s this afternoon.
Today is the start of a warming trend as a ridge begins to build
into the region. As this ridge takes hold, the cool onshore flow
will be replaced by warmer and drier offshore flow. The warmest day
of this oncoming pattern change will be a matter of location.
Tuesday is shaping up to be the warmest day for the Bay Area as a
whole with the mid to upper 80s possible in the more interior
valleys. Coastal areas won`t see as much of an increase in
temperatures, with highs sticking to the 60s.
The warmth will focus on the Monterey Bay and Central Coast for
Wednesday, with some modestly cooler conditions expected for the Bay
Area. Again, the coastal areas will stay much more mild, but the
Salinas Valley will see temperature rise into the 80s and the upper
80s for a few areas. Overnight temperatures will remain above
average during this time with most areas seeing lows in the mid 40s
to low 50s.
Highs reduce later into the week, but remain above average for most
areas. Interior valleys in Monterey Co will hold onto the warmth
better than others, with highs remaining in the 80s until next
weekend.
The long-term forecast is continuing to offer interesting updates.
There is good agreements between longer-term model and ensemble
members for a trough centering itself along the coast next Sunday.
But recent updates have this trough becoming very deep ahead of
moving inland. This could take the moisture much farther south, San
Diego south. The trough itself will mean cooler temperatures, but if
models continue to deepen this trough, rain chances for the Bay Area
will be limited. This will be something the forecast team keeps a
close eye on as the week goes on and higher-resolution, shorter-term
models come in range of this trough development.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:29 PM PDT Sunday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR. A
6.0 mb ACV-SFO pressure gradient and northerly wind are resulting
in drying per dew point temperatures lowering to the upper 20s to
lower 40s. Increasing 500 mb level ridging and surface to lower
level northerly winds combining through the period will continue
large scale compression, warming and drying of the air mass
supporting VFR during the 00z taf cycle. Only along the immediate
coast in the vicinity of KMRY/KSNS/KWVI will there a be a chance
of low clouds /IFR/ developing late tonight and Monday morning per
recent HREF output; diurnal mixing Monday lifting any patchy IFR
ceilings that develop back to VFR conditions.
Surface winds decoupling from winds aloft tonight and Monday morning
thus causing a few areas of low level wind shear (LLWS) to develop,
mainly across the North Bay and possibly the East Bay. LLWS may
also develop vicinity KSFO per recent RAP model output showing 30
knots as low as 2,000 feet 10z-13z Monday; may need to include LLWS
in the taf, will look into this prior to or by the 03z scheduled
amendment.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West wind gusting to 30 knots until mid to
late evening the decreasing to 15 knots or less overnight. Low
level wind shear possible 10z-13z Monday, not in taf yet, but will
look into a bit more before deciding to include in amendment. West
wind 15 to 25 knots Monday afternoon and evening.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals..VFR except patchy late night and morning
low clouds /IFR/ possibly nearby terminals per recent HREF output.
Early evening west winds 10 to 20 knots locally gusting to 25 knots
in the Salinas Valley, winds decreasing later in the evening to 5
to 10 knots. Light and variable winds except locally east to southeast
5 to 10 knots late tonight and Monday morning. West winds 10 to 15
knots Monday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...as of 09:00 PM PDT Sunday...Gusty northwest winds
tonight and early Monday with infrequent to locally occasional
gale force gusts. Elsewhere, high end small craft advisories are
in effect, winds will result in fresh and very steep swell from
10 to 15 feet across the coastal waters. Small craft vessels are
advised to avoid the waters due to these conditions. Northwest
winds taper off but remain breezy to locally gusty through much of
the upcoming week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM
GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Murdock/SPM
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: Canepa
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