Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/21/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
643 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...The aviation forecast is a bit complicated for the next 24 hours, but overall, winds and ceilings will both be impactful to operations. Breezy southeasterly winds will become less gusty overnight, but remain elevated. The low level jet really begins to crank late tonight into Monday and winds will be gusting to near 40 knots by mid morning. Will need to monitor for low level shear concerns overnight, but for now, models don`t show significant shear. MVFR ceilings have already begun to develop at BRO and will soon impact HRL and MFE in the next few hours. Periods of IFR ceilings will be possible overnight at BRO and HRL. A dry line approaching form the west will help to bring back VFR conditions to MFE by mid day Monday, depending on how far east the dry line pushes, otherwise MVFR can be expected through most of the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The short-term period will be fairly active for Deep South Texas. Here is a break-down on the main potential concerns/hazards through Monday night: Wind Potential...Model guidance and ensembles from the GEFS and ECMWF continue to indicate an unusual to extreme wind event occurring on Monday, especially for central and eastern portions of the BRO CWA. Models are very good agreement that a 45-55 knot LLJ well setup over much of Deep South Texas beginning late tonight into early Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will deepen across the Plains and the foothills of the Sierra Madre Orientals of Mexico, significantly intensifying the pressure gradient across Deep South Texas by mid-morning. The focus of the strongest wind speeds/gusts will be along and east of the I-69C corridor between mid-day and mid-afternoon, where sustained speeds between 25-35 mph are likely and gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible. As such, issued a Wind Advisory for coastal counties, as well as Southern Hidalgo County, beginning at 10 AM CDT through 7 PM CDT Monday. The advisory may need to be expanded westward in later updates. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg Counties during the afternoon. Just how far east itll mix is still not entirely certain at this time, but winds are forecast to shift west/northwest and rapidly decrease behind the dryline. Elsewhere, winds will gradually trend downward Monday evening as the LLJ and surface trough axis shifts east of the area and the pressure gradient relaxes. Thunderstorm Potential...A potent upper-level low/trough will move over southeast New Mexico/western Texas Monday afternoon. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the approaching upper-level system will allow an abundance of low-level moisture to advect over the area through the morning and day. Strong WAA may cause light to moderate streamer showers to develop along the lower Texas coast late tonight into early Monday morning, ending by mid- morning. Most deterministic and hi-res models show instability and shear quickly increasing by midday, with MUCAPE values > 1000 J/kg and bulk shear > 40 knots over much of Deep South Texas. Thunderstorms are initially expected to form along the (aforementioned) dryline across central/south- central Texas in the afternoon. However, although the dryline is expected to extend into western/west-central portions of Deep South Texas in the afternoon, the liming factor of thunderstorm development for the CWA will be strong convective inhibition (strong capping inversion) placed over Deep South Texas. Latest model runs of the HRRR and 3km NAM show a line segment of strong/severe thunderstorms developing in the brush country just north of the BRO CWA mid-late afternoon Monday, but fails to develop storms farther south due to the strong cap in place. It is possible the cap may break along the dryline late in the afternoon or early evening, leading to a few isolated thunderstorms. If this occurs, storms that do develop have the potential to become strong and possibly even severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary threats. This will continued to be monitored over the next 24 hours. For now, kept in 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with best chances occurring across the Northern Ranchlands and the offshore coastal waters Monday evening/night. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): The core of a short wave trough complex will lift northeast into the Southern High Plains on Tuesday. Energy will extend southwest along the leading edge of the trough into the CRP CWA and there will be a small residual chance of precip sweeping across the Northern Ranchlands and offshore Tuesday during the early part of the day. Much drier air will fill in right behind the wind shift, in what will essentially be a dry line. High pressure will filter in as well, shifting winds to northwest. The upper energy will shift east Tuesday afternoon while the main trough axis lingers back over Texas. There won`t be many other ingredients to work with on Wednesday in terms of tangible weather, however. Another short wave trough will bottom out in the base of the larger scale trough on Thursday before ridging builds in from the west Thursday night. Said ridging will persist overhead the latter half of the week and into next weekend. In the wake of the dry line/front, mainly seasonal weather will dominate through much of the week with low humidity and cool nights and mild to warm days. After a warm Tuesday in the 80s, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and will then warm back into the 80s (to near 90 west) Friday through Sunday. Overnight low temps will decrease into the 40s and 50s Tuesday night through Thursday nights, warming some Friday night and the weekend nights. MARINE: Now through Monday Night: Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 18 knots gusting to around 23 knots with seas slightly under 4 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1410 CDT/1910 UTC. Marine conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate along the Lower Texas Coast during the period due to a strong and intensifying pressure gradient developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will persist over the waters through the remainder of the afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will begin for the Gulf waters this evening and then for the Laguna Madre after midnight tonight as winds intensify and the seas build. Marine conditions then become dangerous on Monday morning as the pressure gradient increases further. A Gale Warning has been issued for all of the lower Texas coastal waters beginning at 11 AM CDT through 7 PM CDT. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed following the expiration of the Gale Warning. Tuesday through Friday Night...Strong north winds and high seas will prevail Tuesday into Tuesday night in the wake of a cold front. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on the Laguna madre and will be likely on the Gulf waters. Wednesday and Thursday will be transition days as winds and seas slowly decrease. Winds will start to veer to the east as high pressure slides east, but weak reinforcing high pressure could briefly back winds more to north Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds from Thursday night through Friday night will be more from the southeast to south, however. FIRE WEATHER: Monday...No major changes with regards to the potential fire weather concerns for Monday. An uptick in wildfire activity over the past few weeks across Deep South Texas has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for all of Deep South Texas beginning mid-morning Monday through sunset. Didn`t have enough forecast confidence in upgrading the Watch to a Red Flag Warning at this time; will let the next shift evaluate conditions more. Reasoning behind the Fire Weather Watch is the combination of cured fuels and very strong winds anticipated through the day. Minimum relative humidity percentages are expected to remain relatively elevated (20- 40% west of I-69C, 40-60% east of I-69C) during the afternoon, but the warm temperatures, very strong southerly winds, and cured fuels will still pose a major risk of rapid wildfire growth and spread if a fire does indeed break out. Tuesday...There will be an elevated fire weather concern on Tuesday due to low relative humidity values, moderate and gusty northwest winds and drying fuels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 66 82 65 / 0 20 10 20 BROWNSVILLE 79 69 84 68 / 0 20 10 20 HARLINGEN 79 67 86 66 / 0 20 10 20 MCALLEN 82 67 90 66 / 0 20 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 66 97 62 / 0 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 66 72 66 / 0 20 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ248>257-351-353. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ251-253>257- 351. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ130- 132-135. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ170-175. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ150-155. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: Aviation Update...69-Farris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1053 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly exit through the Canadian Maritimes tonight through Monday with upslope rain and snow showers across the north and a few rain showers possible downstream from the mountains. Northwest winds will increase on Monday and will be breezy into Tuesday with a drying trend. High pressure brings fair weather for much of Wednesday before another broad area of low pressure brings widespread precipitation Wednesday night into Friday morning. Unsettled conditions linger through the weekend as an upper trough will be slow to exit the Northeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 947 PM Update...Latest HRRR continues to have a good handle on the precipitation associated with the upper level trough. If this timing holds off, the remainder of the precipitation should shift off the coastline about 06Z-07Z. Thereafter, strong cold air advection and an increasing northwesterly flow will allow for upslope conditions to dominate over the northwest facing higher terrain. Have upped pops for the next few hours based on these latest trends. An inch or so of snow may also accumulate across the higher terrain overnight into tomorrow morning. 836 PM Update...Quick ESTF update to account for current radar trends and mesoscale guidance. Make minor adjustments to temperatures and winds. Prev Update... Have updated the near term portion of the forecast this evening. Latest radar imagery and surface observations indicated plenty of shower activity across the region moving from west to east. With temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, the ptype associated with this activity is in the form of rain. This precipitation is associated with an upper level trough crossing the region which will exit eastern areas by about 06Z or 07Z. Thereafter, expect upslope snow showers to dominate New Hampshire and western Maine. Winds will be on the increase during the overnight hours as the upper level features exits to our east in a cold air advection pattern. Prev Disc... Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows widespread stratus with some embedded cumulus across the area along with a few scattered sunny peaks breaking through. The earlier low stratus has now finally lifted and therefore visibility is unrestricted across the area. An upper level trough axis is currently located across upstate NY and will continue to move eastward into northern New England this evening. Radar mosaic and surface observations indicate that this trough is resulting in the development of showers across western NY and northern VT and this activity will continue to pivot east over the next couple of hours into our area. The previously mentioned 500 mb trough will swing through this evening and result in the development of scattered showers across northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures aloft as well as at the surface will begin to cool as winds back to the northwest and therefore rain is expected to mix with and turn to snow across northern areas as well as across the mountains. Further to the south, mostly rain is expected but a few wet snow flakes cannot be completely ruled out across the Capitol Region of Maine as precipitation ends. The best chance for precipitation will be from about 9 pm to 12 am before this activity exits the region to the east. The exception will be across the north where developing upslope flow will allow for snow/rain showers to continue through the night and minor accumulations may result. Northwest winds will become gusty tonight due to increased mixing with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible for a few hours. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the 20s across the north to the 30s south as skies gradually become partly cloudy south of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A reinforcing cold front will cross the area from the north on Monday as a somewhat tight pressure gradient sets up over New England. Downsloping winds south of the mountains will allow for a partly to mostly sunny day but across the mountains themselves skies will remain mostly cloudy and there will likely be continued showers of rain and snow. Froude numbers will be high tomorrow and therefore extended slight chance PoPs southward into the foothills due to the potential for some isolated shower activity to be advected southward. It will be a breezy day with northwest wind gusts up to 30-35 mph possible areawide. Locally higher gusts will be possible immediately downslope of the mountains with a few gusts up to around 40 mph not out of the question. High temperatures will still be several degrees above average and range from the 30s across the north to the 40s and lower 50s south. Skies will remain mainly clear south of the mountains on Monday night but we will remain well mixed due to the lingering PGF and therefore significant radiational cooling is not anticipated. Despite this, the continued CAA will still allow temperatures to fall to below freezing in most locations with the north falling into the teens. A much drier airmass will be working into the region and therefore expecting snow shower activity across the north to begin to wane. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The NAO is projected to be predominantly negative this week into the weekend as upstream blocking over western Europe slowly retrogrades over the North Atlantic. This will lead to a slowly exiting upper low to start the extended forecast period with another slow moving upper trough/closed low bringing unsettled weather from Wednesday night into the weekend. The best chances for widespread precipitation will come late Wednesday night through Friday morning as one surface low tracks through the Great Lakes with a secondary low forming near coastal New England. Broad troughing over the Northeast will bring showery weather over the weekend with temperatures trending below normal around next Sunday. Tuesday will feature breezy northwest winds and mostly sunny skies downstream of the mountains. Upslope flow will maintain some clouds in the mountains with any rain or snow shower activity diminishing as a vertically stacked low pulls away into the North Atlantic. Highs will range from the upper 20s near the International Border to near 50 degrees along the NH/MA border. A narrow ridge of high pressure will cross the area Wednesday bringing fair weather and temperatures in 40s across much of the area. Northern New England will start to feel the affects of a slow moving broad trough/upper low Wednesday night as this upper level feature sends a surface low into the Great Lakes region. As this surface low tracks into the Great Lakes an area of high pressure will be positioned over Quebec setting up a CAD scenario. This set up will likely bring a variety of p-types across the interior Wednesday night into Thursday while southern and coastal areas will likely see mostly rain. At this time range confidence is low in the evolution of the system and have stuck with rain or snow wording in the forecast. High pressure over Quebec will slowly shift over Atlantic Canada Thursday as the broad upper trough slowly moves across the Ohio Valley. Global models and their ensembles continue to show signs of a secondary low forming somewhere across southern New England Thursday night and tracking this low through the Gulf of Maine Friday morning. This will favor persistent cold air across the interior and continued chances for wintry precipitation Thursday night through Friday. Again confidence is low on the evolution of this secondary low and resultant p-types, but there is potential for accumulating snow at least in the mountains Wednesday night into Friday. Unsettled conditions will linger over the weekend as a -NAO will help maintain mean troughing over the Northeast. At this time precipitation looks showery in nature and primarily confined to the mountains. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions early this evening may briefly deteriorate to MVFR as a weak wave crosses the area resulting in lower ceilings and scattered SHRA. The best chance for MVFR restrictions will be across northern and eastern terminals. VFR conditions return for most after midnight but MVFR restrictions will likely linger through Monday across northern terminals such as KHIE due to upslope SHRA/SHSN. Northwest winds will gust up to 25-30 kts across all terminals on Monday and Monday evening before diminishing some Monday night. Long Term...Mainly VFR is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Broad low pressure will bring lowering cigs and mostly rain south of the mountains late Wednesday night into Friday morning. This will likely bring a mix of periods of MVFR to IFR/LIFR. && .MARINE... Short Term...Increasing offshore flow is expected tonight with wind gusts up to 25-30 kts late tonight through Monday night. SCA is in effect until early Tuesday morning. Long Term...NW winds will bring SCA conditions Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA conditions Wednesday. Increasing SE flow ahead of an area of low pressure will bring a return to SCA conditions Thursday into Friday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
940 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022 .DISCUSSION... Latest obs/trends indicate that the inherited grids/zones are in good shape as is, thus we should continue to see a quiet night weatherwise...the proverbial calm before the storm (in this case, our expected early week potential severe event). 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/ DISCUSSION... For the 03/21/2022 0000 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... VFR and windy conditions are present at all terminals. Winds will begin to subside but only slightly as gradient flow continues to tighten tonight ahead of severe weather Monday/Tuesday. MVFR ceilings will return from the south, arriving first at BPT at roughly 12-14Z, and spreading north from there. Winds will also markedly increase from south to north, increasing first at BPT and LCH around 14-15Z with sustained winds 20-22 KTS and gusts to 30-34kts possible; then to LFT, AEX and ARA around 16-17Z with sustained winds 13-18kts and gusts 20-25 KTS possible through the remainder of the forecast period. 11 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022/ SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday night]... Clear skies are currently being seen throughout the area with near average temperatures and low relative humidity. Elevated southeasterly winds will continue into tonight which will help to bring moisture into the area. Since winds will remain elevated, significant fog formation will not be expected tonight. A frontal system will be moving through the area late Monday into Tuesday. There is concern as to the timing of the squall line as well as if the squall line will stall. The HRRR is indicating that the squall line will remain mostly stationary just west of our area late Monday into early Tuesday morning before eventually progressing faster through our area. As such, A Flood Watch has been issued for late Monday into Tuesday for parts of our area. Model soundings indicate significant low-level and mid-level moisture, significant DCAPE, significant speed shear, and some directional shear. The Storm Prediction Center has most of our area in an Enhanced risk of severe weather late Monday into Tuesday with parts of the area in a Moderate risk on Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, flooding, lighting, and tornadoes will be possible as the frontal system moves through the area. With winds expected to increase tomorrow with a tightening pressure gradient as the frontal system approaches the area, a Wind Advisory has been issued for tomorrow during the day. After the front passes, drier weather will be expected with temperatures expected to be near average. 55 LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]... After all the active weather on Tuesday, things settle quite a bit for the remainder of the forecast. A dry cold front is expected to pass through on Thursday, otherwise high pressure dominates the weather pattern through next weekend. Temperature wise it will be on the cool side in the morning with lows in the 40s through Saturday, before a warming trend starts late in the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s. 15 MARINE... Elevated onshore winds will become stronger tomorrow with an approaching frontal system. Wave heights will also increase as the front moves through the area. The stronger winds will be expected to continue into the middle of the week. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect tomorrow into the middle of the week. 55 LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ027-028-030-031-041-042-073-074. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ041>045- 052>055-073-074. TX...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ201-215-216- 261-262. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ470-472-475. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ430-432. Small Craft Exercise Caution through Monday morning for GMZ430- 432-435. Small Craft Exercise Caution from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for GMZ430-432. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ435. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 49 76 62 73 / 0 10 80 90 LCH 53 75 64 75 / 0 20 80 90 LFT 52 78 66 77 / 0 10 60 100 BPT 57 75 62 76 / 0 50 90 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ027-028-030-031-041-042-073-074. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ041>045- 052>055-073-074. TX...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ201-215-216- 261-262. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ430-432. Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430- 432-435. Small Craft Exercise Caution from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for GMZ430-432. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ435. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
900 PM PDT Sun Mar 20 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and breezy winds are forecast for Sunday. As a ridge builds, warming and drying trend then sets up bringing warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s around the Bay Area by midweek. Temperatures will likely cool next weekend as the ridge weakens. && of 09:00 PM PDT Sunday... Quiet weather prevails with high pressure building into the region. The going forecast is on track with no changes anticipated. && .PREV of 01:57 PM PDT Sunday...It`s a sunny afternoon for the Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures have already begun to build into the 60s and a few interior areas will be expecting highs in the lower 70s this afternoon. Today is the start of a warming trend as a ridge begins to build into the region. As this ridge takes hold, the cool onshore flow will be replaced by warmer and drier offshore flow. The warmest day of this oncoming pattern change will be a matter of location. Tuesday is shaping up to be the warmest day for the Bay Area as a whole with the mid to upper 80s possible in the more interior valleys. Coastal areas won`t see as much of an increase in temperatures, with highs sticking to the 60s. The warmth will focus on the Monterey Bay and Central Coast for Wednesday, with some modestly cooler conditions expected for the Bay Area. Again, the coastal areas will stay much more mild, but the Salinas Valley will see temperature rise into the 80s and the upper 80s for a few areas. Overnight temperatures will remain above average during this time with most areas seeing lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Highs reduce later into the week, but remain above average for most areas. Interior valleys in Monterey Co will hold onto the warmth better than others, with highs remaining in the 80s until next weekend. The long-term forecast is continuing to offer interesting updates. There is good agreements between longer-term model and ensemble members for a trough centering itself along the coast next Sunday. But recent updates have this trough becoming very deep ahead of moving inland. This could take the moisture much farther south, San Diego south. The trough itself will mean cooler temperatures, but if models continue to deepen this trough, rain chances for the Bay Area will be limited. This will be something the forecast team keeps a close eye on as the week goes on and higher-resolution, shorter-term models come in range of this trough development. && of 5:29 PM PDT Sunday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR. A 6.0 mb ACV-SFO pressure gradient and northerly wind are resulting in drying per dew point temperatures lowering to the upper 20s to lower 40s. Increasing 500 mb level ridging and surface to lower level northerly winds combining through the period will continue large scale compression, warming and drying of the air mass supporting VFR during the 00z taf cycle. Only along the immediate coast in the vicinity of KMRY/KSNS/KWVI will there a be a chance of low clouds /IFR/ developing late tonight and Monday morning per recent HREF output; diurnal mixing Monday lifting any patchy IFR ceilings that develop back to VFR conditions. Surface winds decoupling from winds aloft tonight and Monday morning thus causing a few areas of low level wind shear (LLWS) to develop, mainly across the North Bay and possibly the East Bay. LLWS may also develop vicinity KSFO per recent RAP model output showing 30 knots as low as 2,000 feet 10z-13z Monday; may need to include LLWS in the taf, will look into this prior to or by the 03z scheduled amendment. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West wind gusting to 30 knots until mid to late evening the decreasing to 15 knots or less overnight. Low level wind shear possible 10z-13z Monday, not in taf yet, but will look into a bit more before deciding to include in amendment. West wind 15 to 25 knots Monday afternoon and evening. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals..VFR except patchy late night and morning low clouds /IFR/ possibly nearby terminals per recent HREF output. Early evening west winds 10 to 20 knots locally gusting to 25 knots in the Salinas Valley, winds decreasing later in the evening to 5 to 10 knots. Light and variable winds except locally east to southeast 5 to 10 knots late tonight and Monday morning. West winds 10 to 15 knots Monday afternoon and early evening. && of 09:00 PM PDT Sunday...Gusty northwest winds tonight and early Monday with infrequent to locally occasional gale force gusts. Elsewhere, high end small craft advisories are in effect, winds will result in fresh and very steep swell from 10 to 15 feet across the coastal waters. Small craft vessels are advised to avoid the waters due to these conditions. Northwest winds taper off but remain breezy to locally gusty through much of the upcoming week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Murdock/SPM AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: Canepa Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: