Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/20/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
The main adjustment to the forecast was to add patchy fog towards
the Turtle Mountains. The HRRR has been fairly persistent in
showing the fog potential in that area, and with Langdon dropping
to 6 miles, there appears to be enough evidence to add it into
the forecast. Will confine the fog to the tonight period since
winds should pick up later, and mid and high level clouds have
also been on the increase. This is also consistent with the HRRR
which has suggested the fog won`t last too long in any given
location, and is generally gone by early Sunday morning.
Regional radar loops show some increase in returns from the mid-
level clouds going through central North Dakota. The 00Z BIS
sounding was dry in the low levels and with near term model
solutions dry for tonight, did not add any pops to the forecast.
In general, don`t think it would amount to more than a few
sprinkles.
UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Overall, the forecast remains in good shape. The sprinkles /
isolated showers from earlier have dissipated, with mainly mid
and high level clouds remaining. One thing we will have to monitor
is the potential for stratus / fog towards the Turtle Mountains
later tonight. The HRRR has been showing that possibility, and
some other short range models have also been showing a similar
scenario. Another part of that question is whether or not the main
fog chances will remain east of the forecast area. For now, did
not add it (fog) into the forecast, but will monitor trends for
later updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Mild temperatures continue through the short term period. A cold
front will usher in cooler temperatures and chances for
precipitation to start the work week.
In the upper levels, an eastward transitioning ridge was located
over the Northern Rockies and High Plains, while a trough axis
was moving over the Pacific coast. As the ridge moves over the
Northern Plains through the weekend, mild temperatures will be
common under a coinciding 850mb thermal ridge. Tonight, a surface
low will deepen over MT/WY with height falls aloft ahead of the
incoming Pacific trough. Winds turning southerly will keep Sunday
morning lows mild as well, ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s for
most areas.
Sunday afternoon, the surface low and associated cold front will
approach the western North Dakota border from the west. Ahead of
the front, breezy southeast winds with highs again in the 50s/60s
south and west and 40s northeast are expected. Though southeast
winds don`t usually favor efficient boundary layer mixing, the
warm low level air mass (NAEFS 850mb temperatures exceeding the
90th climatological percentile for this time of year) will allow
for another day of above normal highs.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
The first half of next week will be highlighted by cooler
temperatures and chances for rain or snow Monday and Tuesday.
The region will be impacted by a split-stream trough mid-week, as
a northern stream shortwave interacts with a much deeper trough
that will move out of the Four Corners and eject a surface low
through the Great Lakes region. There continues to be a wide
spread in QPF solutions as global models struggle to handle the
complexity of the deep southwest CONUS low as well as the
interaction with the northern stream wave. Over the past several
days, the deterministic GFS has continued to be the westward
outlier, bringing the 1"+ QPF contour through the James River
Valley. However not only is the deterministic GFS the westward
outlier among peers such as ECMWF/NAM/Canadian but it is further
west than most of its own ensemble members. 12Z GEFS members show
10-40% probabilities of exceeding 0.5" in the James River Valley,
dropping off west and north. While phasing of the northern stream
wave and deeper southern low may aid in closing the cyclonic flow
and create a longer period of northwest quadrant precipitation,
it`s difficult to believe the precipitation rates depicted into
the James as the GFS is showing. The blend of ensembles overall,
including the NBM output, looks far more reasonable where greatest
chances for more significant QPF are kept near or east of the
North Dakota border. Precipitation type should be a mix of rain
and snow, depending on time of day during the longer duration
event from Sunday night into Tuesday. Confidence in accumulation
potential is low, but at the time significant accumulations look
unlikely.
The forecast for the second half of next weekend dries out as a
mean ridging pattern looks likely in some form. There may be a
chance of precipitation late in the week with a fast moving
shortwave, but the blend of probabilities keeps chances very low
at this lead time. While there is a potential for temperatures to
rebound above the early week 30s/40s highs expected, the spread in
guidance becomes very large as models differ on how to progress
the previous low out of the region and quickly to build the next
ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. That being said,
KMOT may have to be watched with some short term model solutions
suggesting status/fog could develop just east of the terminal
location. For now, did not bring it (fog/stratus) into the TAF
with low confidence in it developing as far west at KMOT. Winds
will become more steady out of the southeast tonight, but western
locations will see a wind switch on Sunday as an area of low
pressure makes its way into the region.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...King
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...King
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1100 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers this evening along with isolated thunderstorms
possible over western-central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Then a
drying trend overnight. Sunday will be dry and mild, but breezy.
Dry, blustery but seasonable weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday.
A frontal system looks to bring precipitation to our area by
Wednesday night into Thursday. This may bring a brief period of
wintry weather before transitioning to predominantly rain.
Temperatures through the workweek should be around seasonable or
slightly above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast. A front extended from about
Cohasset MA, across northern RI, into northern CT this evening.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis showed only a couple hundred Joules of
CAPE to work with this evening. Had a few storms earlier that
got tall enough to produce pea-sized hail. The trends are for
diminishing thunderstorms as this evening progresses. Tried to
time out the rainfall and thunderstorm chances for the rest of
tonight. Liked the HRRR/time-lagged ensemble HRRR the best for
that.
Not expecting temperatures to change much overnight.
730 PM Update:
Strong line of showers and thunderstorms currently situated
over eastern NY and PA will reach southern New England around
9PM. SPC mesoanalysis reveals that by that time instability will
be waning across southern New England and the threat for severe
storms will be minimal. Despite weak instability, strong deep-
layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may provide enough
dynamic/thermodynamic instability to maintain a couple of
strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail.
HRRR and NSSL-WRF Hi-Res models have resolved the convection
over eastern NY/PA well thus far. Using these models as guidance
we`d expect any organized thunderstorm activity to fade by the
time this line reaches Worcester. As the frontal system
continues to the east coast there should only be a scattered
light to moderate rain showers.
Previous Discussion
Overnight...
Dry slot and occluded front sweep across the region overnight, thus
improving conditions/drying trend as winds shift to the SW. Very
mild by mid to late March standards, with lows only 45-50, which are
normal daytime highs! Patchy dense fog, especially during the
evening but thinning and eroding overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM update...
Sunday...
Warm start to the day combined with morning sunshine and SW winds
becoming west as short wave and cold front approach the region. This
will boost highs to 60-65 across eastern MA/RI and into eastern CT,
15-20 degs above normal! Mid to upper 50s elsewhere, low 50s for the
outer Cape and Islands. Cooling temps and cyclonic flow aloft will
support diurnal clouds to develop during the afternoon. Therefore,
the morning will feature the most sunshine. Could be some lingering
patchy fog along the south coast and islands at sunrise, but that
should burn off by late morning given SW winds and strong March
sunshine. Any showers from approaching S/WV and associated cold
front, should hold off until after sunset. The only exception may be
across western MA/CT. Otherwise, dry weather prevails.
Sunday night...
Scattered showers possible with S/WV and associated cold front. Rain
showers may mix with or end as snow showers across high terrain of
northern MA, but with surface temps above freezing, no impact
expected. Cooler but temps likely remain above freezing, with lows in
the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:
* Blustery and dry through Tues night, with dry conditions
continuing into Wed.
* Frontal system spreads precipitation in by Wed night and
continuing into Thurs. Wintry weather possible at onset,
especially along/north of the Mass Pike but eventually changing
to rain for Thurs. Rain and wintry weather amounts still are
uncertain but looks to be a significant precipitation maker.
* Remains unsettled into Friday but generally dry.
* Temperatures are around or slightly above seasonable levels.
Monday and Tuesday
Deep northwest flow pattern early next week will support dry
conditions and plenty of sunshine
for southern New England. CAA
aloft supports steep lapse rates on both Monday and Tuesday
afternoon allowing 25-30 mph gusts aloft to mix down to the surface.
Generally quiet start to the week with seasonable high temperatures
in the low-mid 50s on Monday and upper 40s to low 50s on Tuesday.
Wednesday
Mid-level ridge axis builds over southern New England on Wednesday
supporting a continuation of dry/seasonable conditions. However
winds aloft are expected to weaken, thus gusty winds during the
afternoon are not expected. Increasing cloudiness by Wednesday
afternoon as a southerly flow develops ahead of low-pressure system
advancing through the Midwest.
Wednesday night through Thursday night
Next shot for substantial precipitation will occur Wednesday night
into Thursday as a frontal-wave pushes through southern New England.
PWATs increase to an inch or higher which may support heavy
downpours as the system moves through the region. Expecting
precipitation type to be mostly rain, but can`t rule out some
snow/wintry precipitation for the western high terrain. Still some
details to iron out, but anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of widespread
liquid precipitation is on the table.
Friday and Saturday
Dry and seasonable conditions forecast to start next weekend.
Eyeing a coastal-low pressure system that may bring
precipitation to southern New England late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...high confidence on trends, lower on exact details
including timing.
LIFR/IFR with patchy dense fog and scattered showers. A few
thunderstorms may track into our region through 06z, with brief
heavy rain and small hail. Should see LIFR ceilings improve to
IFR or better after 06Z from west east except over The Cape and
Islands. LIFR/IFR visibilities will remain an issue for the
eastern areas through day break.
Sunday...High confidence. Any leftover IFR/LIFR at sunrise along
the coast, quickly improves to VFR. Dry weather prevails along
with modest WSW wind 10-20 kt.
Sunday night...high confidence. Scattered showers with MVFR
conditions across western-central MA, VFR elsewhere. West winds
becoming NW.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing and details.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing and details.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
RA likely.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...NE/SE winds trending south with gusts up to 25 kt at
times. Patchy dense fog limits vsby to less than 1/2 mile at times.
After midnight, wind shift to the SW results in slowly improving
conditions, along with a drying trend, after scattered evening
showers.
Sunday...WSW winds 10-20 kt. Any patchy dense fog at sunrise,
quickly erodes. Dry weather.
Sunday night...west winds 10-20 kt become NW overnight. Scattered
rain showers.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain likely.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/RM
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Belk/Nocera/RM
MARINE...Belk/Nocera/RM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1141 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will track through the St
Lawrence Valley tonight into Sunday bring bouts of moderate rain
with a few thunderstorms possible. A break in precipitation is
expected Sunday before more showers move through Sunday night
into Monday. Generally quiet weather is expected Monday through
mid week. Another low pressure system will approach from the
Great Lakes Thursday and Friday with unsettled conditions
lingering into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Latest Update...
Storm segments along a line which will be exiting eastern New
Hampshire as of around 04Z will continue to weaken as they enter
the state of Maine. The latest HRRR has this precipitation
exiting the region near the Midcoast around 06Z or 07Z.
Latest HREF probabilities suggests lowering visibilities likely
will occur right along the Midcoast region. With plenty of low
level moisture entering the area with rainfall, and light winds,
this appears to be reasonable. Therefore will leave the dense
fog advisories in place.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments made to the near term wind
fields, temperatures and pops.
852 PM Update...
Monitor lines of showers and thunderstorms which will enter New
Hampshire late this evening. Elevated convection is expected at
this feature crosses through western portions of the forecast
area around 02Z-03Z per the latest HRRR and weakens as
showers/storms move through before exiting the Midcoast region
around 07Z. Nevertheless, a few of the storms may produce
gusty winds over portions of southern New Hampshire.
Have made some minor modifications to the near term grids this
evening as cool and a raw northeasterly winds continues at the
surface. Fog will become more dense with time, hence dense fog
advisories will remain in place over coastal areas.
Have been monitoring the tides this evening which are running
above normal and near their peak for the astronomical high tide
cycle. May have some minor beach erosion during the overnight
period.
Prev Disc...
Latest surface pressure analysis by the RAP13 shows that low
pressure is currently located over the eastern Great Lakes with
a trailing cold front located over western NY and PA. KGYX Radar
shows an area of convective showers located across eastern NH
and southwestern ME with a northeastward motion. These showers
have at times become a little more elevated in nature and some
of them have produced a few lightning strikes across
southwestern NH. Further to the west a line of developing
thunderstorms is located across western NY state and this line
is moving east towards western New England.
Low pressure will continue to move through the St. Lawrence
valley tonight and in doing so will push a surface cold front
through the area this evening. A secondary low is expected to
form from this front as it moves over the Gulf of Maine. High
resolution forecast guidance is in generally good agreement for
this front to arrive in western NH between 02-05Z before exiting
downeast Maine by 12Z Sunday. As this front crosses it will
enter a somewhat unstable airmass with about 60-70 kts of 0-6KM
bulk shear, about 200 m2s-2 of helicity, along with some
elevated CAPE. As a result, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out, mainly across western NH this evening as the front
crosses. The main threat would be for briefly heavy downpours
and gusty winds.
Elsewhere, expecting showers to continue through the first half
of the night along with areas of fog. As winds begin to weaken
tonight this fog will likely become dense in some areas. The 12Z
HREF shows high probabilities for 1/2 mile or less visibility
along coastal areas for this evening and overnight tonight and
given downward trends in observed visibility went ahead and
issued a Dense Fog Advisory across coastal zones. HREF
probabilities indicate that visibility may actually begin to
improve from Portland south by around midnight while declining
further to the east through dawn tomorrow. Lingering shower
activity will become more isolated late this evening across most
areas but will likely continue across the north and mountains due
to developing upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will move across eastern Canada on Sunday but our
area will still sit under cyclonic flow with some lingering
moisture and stiff northwest winds. A weak shortwave trough will
swing through the area tomorrow evening and there is growing
confidence that this will allow for a few additional showers to
develop across much of the CWA during the late day and early
evening hours. It will otherwise be a partly cloudy day south of
the mountains with downsloping winds allowing temperatures to
once again make a run for the 60 degree mark. Across the far
north and mountains upslope flow will result in additional cloud
cover along with showers of both rain and snow throughout the
day.
Temperatures will begin to finally cool on Sunday night and
therefore any lingering moisture will likely fall as snow,
mainly across the north and light accumulations may result. It
will otherwise be a cool and breezy night with low temperatures
falling into the 20s and 30s from north to south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong upstream blocking over western Europe will allow for an upper
level low to meander over the Canadian Maritimes Monday through
Tuesday night. Cyclonic flow aloft will bring chances for snow
showers in the mountains to the International Border during this
time frame with the greatest chances occurring Monday with a cold
frontal passage. Short wave ridging will then build in Wednesday
bringing fair weather across the entire forecast area. Blocking over
western Europe will continue through the end of the week while
retrograding some over the North Atlantic the second half of the
week. All the while a broad trough/upper low will slowly slide
across the eastern CONUS Thursday into the weekend. This
trough/upper low will send a surface low through the Great Lakes
Thursday night into Friday with similar characteristics to the
system impacting the Northeast today. Unsettled conditions look to
continue over next weekend as troughing lingers over the
Northeast.
Monday will be breezy and mild for areas south of the mountains.
Upslope flow and a cold frontal passage will bring clouds and
chances for rain and snow showers across the mountains to the
International Border while areas downstream will see partly to
mostly sunny skies. Highs will climb into upper 40s to low 50s
south of the mountains while far northern areas will be
restricted to the 30s. Northwest flow will be aligned through a
deep layer and with favorable mixing winds may gust upwards of
30 MPH late Monday morning through the afternoon. Cooler and
drier air will continue to enter the area Monday night with lows
in the 20s. Tuesday will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday
with breezy NW winds continuing as low pressure becomes
vertically stacked in the Canadian Maritimes. Short wave ridging
will bring fair weather Wednesday with much of the area warming
into the 40s with low 50s expected across southern NH.
Active weather is expected Thursday into Friday as a slow moving
upper trough/closed low will trek towards the Ohio Valley with a
surface low tracking northeastward into the Great Lakes region. This
system will draw high PWAT air from the Gulf of Mexico into New
England Thursday. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement that
the forecast area will see decent shot of QPF with ensemble
means around 1 inch across much of the area by Friday. In some
ways this system looks similar to one moving through the
Northeast today into tomorrow. Some notable differences involve
a cooler antecedent airmass with solutions from the
GFS/ECMWF/CMC deterministic runs and ensembles showing a
secondary low forming offshore near Cape Cod that will help to
hold colder air over the forecast area. Therefore, this system
looks to be capable of bringing more in the way of wintry
precipitation Thursday and Friday, although at this time range
confidence is low on p-type details and amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through tonight
as an area of low pressure moves over the St. Lawrence valley
and a cold front crosses the area. Expecting widespread SHRA
through this evening with isolated TSRA over western and
southern terminals between mainly 02-05Z. Widespread FG is
expected through tonight. Flight categories will improve to VFR
on Sunday/Sunday night across most terminals but MVFR
restrictions will likely linger across northern terminals such
as KHIE due to upslope SHRA/SHSN. Northwest winds may gust up to
25-30 kts at times across all terminals.
Long Term...Mainly VFR is expected Monday through Wednesday
outside of some upslope clouds and showers bringing potential
for MVFR at KHIE Monday. Low pressure approaches from the Great
Lakes Thursday with restrictions likely due to low cigs and
reduced vsby in rain or snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions expected through Sunday along the
outer waters as onshore flow turns offshore behind a cold
frontal passage tonight. Seas to remain up through at least
Sunday.
Long Term...Gusty NW winds will bring SCA conditions Monday into
Wednesday morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA conditions
Wednesday before southeasterly flow increases Thursday ahead of
an area of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Will continue to monitor Woodstock, Conway and Davisville
overnight night as they will be above action stage.
Interior rivers and streams continue to respond to snow melt
today, showing steady rises following an offset diurnal trend
due to well above freezing temperatures and dew points area-
wide. Latest SWE change analysis shows modest and steady melt
through all areas of remaining snowpack, except for in the
western Maine mountains and a few spots in Coos county.
A mostly-rain low pressure system crosses the region tonight
bringing widespread rains to the area. While the heaviest
precipitation amounts to 1-1.0 inches along the coast, there`s
no snow pack here. Further north, QPF is closer to 0.30-0.50
inch. This distribution will result in additional runoff
through the Whites and some of the western Maine snowpack, but
the heaviest amounts near the coast pose little threat with no
river ice or snow pack. Further inland however the rain and
snowmelt could lead to a few rivers reaching action stage by
Sunday.
With the increased CFS flow coming and the warm temperatures,
the remaining river ice could flush out this weekend on many
interior river systems. Ice jam flooding threat still seems to
be limited due to multiple freeze/thaw cycles over the last
month helping to rot and thin the ice in many areas. Even so,
the potential for ice jam flooding over the next 36hrs can`t be
completely ruled out, especially on the Pemi where a previous
jam is still restricting flow near Plymouth, NH. Overall, good
chance for northern river system to flush their ice this
weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ022-025>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and warm ahead of an approaching cold front with isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. Drier and
cooler air will overspread the region Sunday and Monday with
warming into mid week ahead of low pressure. Wet conditions
expected Wednesday and Thursday as Gulf moisture is drawn into
the Carolinas ahead of low pressure that passes to our
northwest. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Risk for severe weather has ended, with only an isolated chance
of an elevated thunderstorm near the coast overnight.
Maintained low pops near the coast overnight and during pre-dawn
hours before cold front moves offshore in the morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front still well west of the
area as of 18z moving through the central Carolinas, though subtle
prefrontal troughing noted ahead of this. Have had a tough time
getting convection going thus far with overall limited instability.
Still not out of the question per Marginal risk by SPC for a couple
of strong to svr tstms over the next few hours (esp. east of 95
where we`ve had less cloud cover), though the threat should diminish
steadily after 00z. Main threats continue to be isolated severe hail
and damaging winds. It should also be noted that some of the high
res models keep much of the area dry through the event, so have
continued to cap pops in the 20-30% range. Shower chances diminish
steadily from NW to SE through the evening/overnight. Winds will
shift westerly late evening through 6z and then trend WNW into the
morning. This will bring cooler and drier air to the area, with lows
Sunday morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. High pressure will build
in from a ~1025mb center near Mississippi/Alabama on Sunday,
bringing dry, offshore WNW/NW winds. Aloft, mid/upper trough axis
will swing through the area through the day, and offshore by late
afternoon. End result will be abundant sunshine and temps seasonably
mild in the upper 60s to around 70.
Noted that much of area remains in moderate drought (esp. closer to
coast) and if latest high res models such as HRRR are correct
showing limited to no precip through this evening, could be some
fire wx challenges tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Seasonable wx for the short term period. Low temps in the
low/mid 40s Sunday night as the core of sfc high pressure builds
into the area, allowing for a clear sky and light NW flow. The
high moves directly overhead on Monday, with mainly
light/variable winds and high temps ranging from the upr 60s
along the coast to low. Minor coastal flooding may occur along
the lower Cape Fear River during high tide cycles this period
following the recent full moon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry wx expected Monday night through at least late Tuesday as
sfc high pressure over the area shifts offshore. Expect above
normal temps through the period, with highs each day in the 70s.
A cold front approaches from the west midweek, bringing elevated
rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Guidance has come into
slightly better agreement on the timing of the front, and still
have the highest widespread PoPs (70%) Wednesday night.
Included slight change of thunder, but instability doesn`t look
all that impressive. A drying trend thereafter through the end
of the week as the front pushes offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances have continued to trend down for this evening. Will
see scattered to broken VFR clouds overnight, around 6-9 kft
near the coast and 20kft inland. A few showers may develop near
the coast in the early morning hours as cold front moves across,
but no instability for lightning. As front pushes offshore by
morning, skies will clear and southwesterly overnight winds
become northwesterly for tomorrow sustained around 10-15 kt and
gusts to 20 kt tomorrow afternoon.
Extended Outlook...VFR continues through early week with high
pressure. Next frontal system may bring flight restrictions
Wed/Thu.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Sunday: Expect marginal SCA event through early evening
as SW winds/seas ramp up ahead of cold front. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible through early evening ahead of the
front, capable of producing gusty winds, lightning, and hail.
Moderate Wly flow developing overnight will then trend WNW to NW
behind the front into tomorrow behind the front. Will be some
15-20kt gusts with this pattern through the day tomorrow but not
anticipating SCA conditions at this time. Seas will drop to
2-4ft tomorrow, in a mix of SE 9s waves and 4-6s waves wave
trending from SSW to more W/WNW directions associated with the
local winds.
Sunday Night Through Thursday: Improving winds and seas for
early next week as the aforementioned cold front pushes farther
offshore. Benign marine conditions through Tuesday as sfc high
pressure builds into the area then slides offshore, before winds
and seas ramp back up again Wednesday ahead of the next
approaching cold front. SCA conditions Wednesday night into
Thursday as southerly flow strengthens.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Fair skies and lighter winds will prevail across central and
southeast Illinois during the rest of tonight, allowing low
temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 30s. After a chilly
early morning, ample sunshine and a return to southwesterly winds
will boost highs well into the 60s on Sunday. Even warmer
temperatures in the lower 70s are expected on Monday with breezy
south winds, as dry weather continues through at least early
Monday evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Forecast generally looked on track tonight as low clouds about to
exit east of IL by Vermilion county at mid evening. Mid evening
surface map shows 1000 mb low pressuring approaching the southern
Quebec/Ontario province line while weak 1022 mb surface high
pressure was over the southern MS river valley and riding northward
into the MS river valley. Aloft an upper level trof was shifting
just east of IL at mid evening. IR satellite loop shows a few low
clouds lingering in eastern Vermilion county IL and these should
move out of IL soon. Patchy mid level clouds with bases around 10k
ft over central IA associated with a weak short wave, will spread
across central/northern IL overnight, but overall fair skies
should prevail. Patchy fog could develop over northern IL
overnight and early Sunday morning, though latest CAMs have backed
off on this and keeping it north of CWA. Decoupling of winds
occurred around sunset as gusty WNW winds subsided quickly to
under 10 mph and should veer SW during the night and stay under 10
mph. Temps have cooled into the upper 30s to mid 40s and should
cool toward dewpoints in the low to mid 30s by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
20z/3pm satellite imagery continues to feature overcast conditions
across much of central Illinois, with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny along/west of a Galesburg to Springfield line. The
clouds will continue to slowly erode from west to east over the
next few hours, resulting in mostly clear conditions across the
board by mid-evening. Given clear skies and light winds, excellent
radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to bottom out in
the lower to middle 30s. Will need to keep an eye out for possible
fog development north of the Peoria area overnight, as the RAP
has been consistently showing this. Since the HRRR/NAM/GFSLAMP all
keep visbys up, have not introduced fog at this time. After a
cold start to the day, full sunshine and increasing southwesterly
winds will push highs on Sunday into the middle to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Monday continues to look like the warmest day of the forecast
period as upper heights rise in advance of a slowly approaching
storm system. Given sunshine and southerly flow, highs will
likely reach the lower 70s.
The pleasant early spring weather will be short-lived however, as
a prolonged period of unsettled/showery conditions will develop
Monday night through at least Thursday. A short-wave trough
currently along the West Coast will cross the Rockies and amplify
over the southern Plains on Monday. As additional northern-stream
energy phases with this system, a large cut-off low will form and
meander slowly northeastward into the Great Lakes for the
remainder of the week. This will ensure mostly cloudy skies and
daily rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. While the
heaviest rainfall still looks to set up much further south across
the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, storm total rainfall of around 1
inch appears likely across much of central Illinois...with higher
values of 1 to 2 inches south of I-70. Main forecast challenge
will be timing the departure of the system, as some models suggest
it may even linger into Friday before finally exiting into the
Great Lakes. At this time will maintain rain chances only through
Thursday, but would not be surprised to see showers added to the
Friday forecast if current trends persist.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
A MVFR cloud deck has recently passed east of BMI and DEC airports
and will clear CMI around 01Z. 1000 mb low pressure just east of
Georgian Bay Canada will move east toward the Quebec/Ontario
province line by midnight, taking is low clouds with it. A weak
short wave over central IA will has a few mid level clouds around
10k ft over nw Iowa and may track into central IL overnight.
1021 mb high pressure ridge over the southern MS river valley and
riding northward over the MS river valley, will strengthen to
1024 mb by sunset Sunday as it shifts slowly east over KY/TN/AL,
while upper level ridge over the High Plains shifts eastward into
the MS river valley by sunset Sunday. This will provide fair
weather to central IL tonight and Sunday with just few to
scattered high clouds. WNW winds around 10 kts with gusts near 20
kts early this evening will subside to 4-8 kts after sunset and
back SW. SW winds pick back up to around 10 kts by Sunday
afternoon with gusts near 20 kts. Winds veer SSW and diminish back
to 5-8 kts by 23Z/6 pm Sunday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1123 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Scattered light rain and drizzle continues across the northeast half
of the forecast area this evening but the back edge of the
precipitation is now into western Indiana. Brisk west winds continue
although gusts have largely dropped off over the last hour or two.
0130Z temperatures were in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
The overall forecast is in excellent shape with the back edge of the
light rain and drizzle shifting steadily to the east over the next 2-
3 hours. Back edge of the stratus deck not far behind the light
precip as it is approaching the Illinois-Indiana state line as of
mid evening with the lower Wabash Valley already experiencing
clearing skies. Stratus will scatter steadily over the next several
hours from west to east as high pressure finally builds into the
region from the west. The surface pressure gradient will relax as
well with westerly winds dropping to less than 10kts. Lows in the
mid and upper 30s look reasonable.
Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
...Precip ending tonight and sunny with a quick temperature
recovery Sunday...
The HRRR and other convective allowing models suggest the showers
will be ending toward daybreak over northeastern sections as the
upper trough moves to the east and surface high pressure moves over
the South in the wake of the low pressure system currently lifting
northeast across southern Ontario. Model soundings and RH time
sections suggest skies will clear from west to east starting late
this evening and early overnight over the Wabash Valley. The Muncie
area will not see clearing until close to daybreak or perhaps even
slightly later. The surface pressure gradient will relax tonight, so
west and southwest winds will drop off overnight but perhaps not
quite enough for ideal radiational cooling, especially considering
the quick transition to warm advection. Think temperatures will stay
above freezing with overnight lows in the middle 30s.
Dry column per model soundings and rh progs and subsidence
associated with high pressure from the Gulf to the Great Lakes will
provide sunny skies across all of central Indiana on Sunday. The
abundant sunshine and warm advection support well above normal highs
in the lower to middle 60s. Normal highs for late March are in the
lower and middle 50s. As the high shifts east Sunday night, winds
will gain a Gulf fetch while an upper ridge will move into the
Mississippi Valley well ahead of an upper low over New Mexico. Will
see cirrus spill overtop the ridge. That and the southerly low level
winds will keep temperatures from falling to any lower than the
lower 40s.
&&
.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the next seven...as
ridging aloft and moderate south-southwesterly breezes courtesy of
the southern surface high sliding to the Carolina coast...continue
the trend from Monday, boosting temperatures to the low 70s while
dewpoints climb into the 40s under partly sunny skies.
The remainder of the long term will favor above normal to near
normal temperatures with any late winter arctic air masses contained
well north of the region...while a broad H500 trough slowly advances
across the Plains through at least mid-week...promoting several days
of southwesterly flow and rain chances over Indiana. Low certainty
continues regarding details of how the upper trough`s embedded vort-
maxs will phase with any surface circulations near the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Nevertheless, moderate confidence in several
facets: the Monday night-Thursday timeframe will contain at least
chances of rain for most locations...with roughly the first half of
that period being the more favorable for heavier rains amid both
better upper forcing and likely the week`s highest precipitable
water values...while the Wednesday-Wednesday night timeframe would
have the greatest likelihood of stronger thunderstorms per being
near the system`s cold frontal passage.
Good chance rainfall totals approach 1.00 inch by the end of the day
Tuesday for counties south/west of Bloomington, with lesser amounts
likely elsewhere. Several ensemble members of today`s latest
guidance are trending the upper trough to be broader, and perhaps
dissected by at least a weak H700 dry conveyor near the region
around Wednesday, while adequate theta-e remains at the
surface...which could translate to partial, yet self-destructive,
sunshine. Such details will be refined into next week: shifting
these various features 100 miles west/east may greatly alter
convective potential.
Decent confidence that most of the broad trough`s energy is absorbed
northward into the jet`s main flow as a kicking short wave crosses
the Great Lakes around Thursday. Temperatures should trend from
above normal, especially at night per overcast skies, Monday night
to Wednesday...and then generally near normal Wednesday night into
the weekend as zonal or weak residual troughing is expected. The
normal max/min for the long term at Indianapolis is 55/35.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
IMPACTS:
- VFR conditions through the forecast period
- Westerly winds around 10kts Sunday afternoon
DISCUSSION:
The back edge of the stratus deck is moving through the region late
this evening with mainly clear skies developing at all of the
terminals likely by forecast issuance time. Brisk westerly flow is
dropping off quickly as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.
Tranquil weather and mainly clear skies are expected for the
forecast period through Sunday night as high pressure builds in.
W/SW winds peak at around 10kts or so Sunday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Update...Ryan
Short Term...MK
Long Term...AM
Aviation...Ryan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
845 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
No significant changes to going forecast this evening.
Surface low pressure responsible for our gloomy and rainy Saturday
weather continue to pull away from the Great Lakes region this
evening. As of 830 pm, the trailing edge of the lingering light
rain shield was just east of the IL/IN border, and will continue
to move east through late evening allowing rain to end and cloud
cover to decrease from the west across northwest Indiana. Winds
will continue to diminish and become light west-southwest, as
temperatures fall into the 30s area-wide overnight as weak surface
high pressure spreads in from the west.
With the end of precipitation and clearing occurring relatively
late in the day, and relatively light winds across the area, some
fog development is likely later tonight. This appears especially
favorable across our western cwa (generally from the Fox River
Valley in northeast IL, westward). Recent model trends have backed
away from widespread dense fog, with forecast soundings from the
RAP for instance depicting somewhat drier low-level profiles just
above the surface across our western cwa. Farther east, soundings
maintain 10-15 kts of northwest winds a few hundred feet above the
surface which suggests more mixing of drier air at the top of the
shallow surface-based inversion. Would think areas west and
southwest of the Chicago area would still see at least some patchy
fog development, though how widespread/dense it becomes is of
somewhat low confidence. Inherited forecast included patchy fog
mention roughly along/northwest of the I-55 corridor across
north/northeast IL and see no reason to deviate from this. Areas
to the east should have an overall lower fog potential.
Otherwise, made some minor tweaks to temps, lower wind speeds a
bit and move the rain/cloud clearing line east a little quicker
based on evening radar/satellite and surface obs trends. Forecast
appears to be in good shape otherwise, with no further adjustments
needed at this time.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Through Sunday night...
The short term forecast message is the dreary first half of the
weekend turning much less so on Sunday. It`s just the details on
that transition tonight that are the focus, and those are the
light rain/drizzle ending time and fog potential that may linger
into early Sunday morning if it does develop. The other item to
note is that while highs will peak at or above 60 inland, there
will be a lake breeze to develop and this may charge a ways
inland, dropping temperatures quickly across parts of the Chicago
metro and far northwest Indiana.
The cyclonic flow-driven blanket of clouds continues this
afternoon with scattered showers within broader areas of drizzle.
Occasionally under heavier echoes, light snow or light ice
pellets have been observed where melting energy near the ground is
marginal. Cloud bases are gradually rising into north central and
far northern Illinois, and radar returns have become less
widespread there, revealing an approaching end to synoptic lift
and also the deeper moist column evident on observed regional
soundings this morning. The back edge of the forcing and
associated light rain/drizzle will move slowly eastward through
early evening, with the last of the light precipitation ending in
northwest Indiana likely during mid evening or so.
As for the western edge of the clouds, this is approaching the far
western forecast area (Dixon/Rockford) as of 245 P.M. This is
creeping eastward and will continue so tonight with cloud-
bearing flow of 15 kt or so. Do expect much of north central and
far northern Illinois to experience some sun before it sets today.
Temperatures in parts of north central Illinois may make a run
toward or into the upper 40s, while locations east struggle around
40. Some warming will result in mixing across north central
Illinois, but all in the all the CWA is vulnerable to some fog
formation tonight due to 1.) the late day or after dark clearing,
2.) inherently low temperature-dew point spreads, and 3.) wet
ground conditions. One factor that`s less favoring of fog is wind
speeds of 10-15 kt as low as 300-500 ft on forecast RAP and NAM
soundings. This momentum at the top of the boundary layer can
preclude fog formation, especially dense fog, if the other
attributes do not compensate. Have added patchy fog wording into
the forecast for much of northern Illinois overnight into early
Sunday morning. With the aforementioned wind concern and the fact
high resolution guidance is not keying in much on low visibility
forecasts, have not included any dense verbiage.
Surface ridging will pass across the area on Sunday with westerly
winds at 925 mb spreading in warmer temperatures to around 10C by
mid-late afternoon (much different from the -1C today). While some
morning fog is possible that could lift into a short duration
stratus, much of the day is anticipated to be sunny. The pattern
favors temperatures to jump nicely with highs in the lower to mid
60s for much of the area. The exception are lakeside counties, as
the light low-level flow will favor early afternoon development
of a lake breeze. This could charge inland at a fairly good clip
as shown for instance by the high-res ARW and FV3, but there is
uncertainty at that inland pace as the boundary layer over land
deepens with some mixing in the mid-late afternoon. Have a
forecast fairly large temperature drop in the hourly gridded
forecast for locations near the lake, with highs in the low to mid
50s dropping into the low to mid 40s.
Sunday night will see clouds thicken under warm advection aloft.
The anticyclonically curved jet favors a response of stronger
warm advection and attendant saturated isentropic lift well north
of the area, so no precipitation is forecast.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Monday through Saturday...
Next week, all attention will be on what will likely end up an
extended period of time with clouds, waves of rain, breezy winds,
and perhaps even snow from time to time as a large low pressure
system meanders through the Great Lakes.
Currently, an upper-level trough is moving onshore from the Pacific
Ocean into northern California ahead of a "pinwheeling" closed upper-
level low pressure system centered south of the Alaska Aleutian
Islands. As the initial trough tracks southeastward along the
US/Mexico border Sunday into Monday, a large area of low-level WAA
bolstered by broad southwesterly flow on the western fringe of a
1026mb surface high pressure system anchored along the lower
Atlantic coast will lead to rapidly rising heights and the
northward progression of a ridge across the central United States.
Indeed, 850mb temperatures are poised to rise to the +8 to +9C
range in the western Great Lakes on Monday which will support high
temperatures at the surface in the upper 60s to lower 70s in
spite of gradually increasing upper-level cloud cover.
Also on Monday, a secondary upper-level trough originating from the
aforementioned Aleutian upper-level low will track across the
northern United States, which with the primary trough will set the
stage for the development of a several low pressure systems across
the heart of the country. Monday night into Tuesday, the southern-
most cyclone associated with the original trough will likely become
dominant partly due to massive enthalpy release via repeated
episodes of severe convection in Texas and eventually Louisiana,
Arkansas, and western Mississippi. Due to the consolidating upper-
level waves, the enlarging surface low will be encouraged to lift
northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Meanwhile, the parent upper-level trough will become
massive and eventually encompass much of the continuous United
States -- quite literally exemplify the definition of a Rossby Wave.
Now, massive upper-level waves often move very slowly which will
ultimately result in a prolonged period of stagnant weather in our
area.
As is often the case with complex wave evolutions, we can only
speak in general terms since subtle differences from model
guidance to reality can ultimately sway the resulting weather in
different directions from the forecast. So, we`ll stick to general
forecast themes for next week. After the warm Monday, increasing
clouds will likely give way to waves of showers and possibly even
a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. In addition, fairly breezy
east/southeasterly winds appear poised to develop at some point
Tuesday into Wednesday as the consolidating surface low pressure
system and coinciding packed pressure gradient approach. As the
upper-level wave stalls basically overhead, continued waves of
showers are all but likely Wednesday and Thursday. It may not be
until Friday that the upper-level wave finally breaks down and
ejects eastward, but such an evolution will be dependent on the
timing of yet another upper-level trough originating from the
pin-wheeling Aleutian Low. (In other words, we would not be
surprised if the stagnant wet weather continues even into
Friday). Tuesday through at least Thursday look solidly cloudy
(including low clouds from time to time). Temperatures will hold
fairly steady Tuesday and Wednesday more or less +/- 5 degrees
from 50, with eventual cooling Thursday into Friday with highs in
the 40s and lows in the 30s. Should waves of precipitation
coincide with nighttime hours when temperatures are coldest (and
solar irradiance isn`t available for melting), at least some
opportunity also exists for snow to be a transient precipitation
type. But confidence in such is much lower overall.
As we head into next week, the weather should follow the general
themes outlined above. Added detail will be provided in later
forecast packages as the evolution of the parent waves and surface
lows becomes more clear. In summary, enjoy tomorrow and Monday
since Tuesday onward looks wet, cloudy, and dreary.
Borchardt
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation Forecast Highlights:
* Rain ending shortly for Chicago terminals, with improvement to
VFR conditions early-mid evening.
* Some potential for fog mainly west of the Chicago terminals
later tonight/early Sunday. IFR visibilities possible.
* Lake breeze expected Sunday afternoon, though somewhat low
confidence on timing of wind shift for ORD/MDW.
Surface low pressure continues to pull away from the region this
evening, with cyclonic low level winds gradually decreasing across
the western Lakes and Mississippi Valley. Trailing edge of light
rain shield associated with the departing low pressure system was
moving east across the Chicago metro area at this time, with
precip ending within the hour for ORD/MDW. Lower MVFR clouds were
also eroding from the west-northwest with the end of
precipitation, and terminals should see improvement to VFR during
the early to mid evening hours.
Weak surface high pressure ridge the the west across IA will move
east into IL later tonight, with winds becoming light west-
southwest overnight. The combination of wet ground, light surface
winds and clearing skies will likely allow for some fog
development later tonight into early Sunday, particularly west of
the Chicago metro. Though not particularly aggressive with
widespread fog, model guidance generally focuses most likely
areas for lower visibilities west of DPA and especially along/west
of the I-39 corridor (SW of RFD) after midnight. Slightly
stronger winds just above the boundary layer appear to be the
limiting factor for widespread dense fog, and winds just above the
top of the shallow surface-based inversion will be lighter to the
west. With some concern that models may be under-doing extent of
fog have trended toward a a period of IFR visibility at RFD
09-13Z, and did indicate some VFR light fog at DPA. Will need to
monitor trends later this evening to see if fog needs to be hit
harder.
Otherwise, only other concern is the likely development of a lake
breeze off of Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon. Models not too
excited with a lake breeze push, likely due to 10-15 kt west flow
above the surface during the afternoon. However, plentiful late
March sun and 60 degree temps expected inland should support
a decent lake breeze, and have maintained a mention in ORD/MDW
forecasts with an easterly wind shift at 22Z. Low confidence in
the exact timing with models considerably slower (00-01Z).
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 10 PM Saturday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1026 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. Another weak
cold front will move through on Sunday. Then, high pressure
will build across the area Monday and Tuesday. Unsettled
weather returns Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Updated to account for a little slower timing to showers
accompanying the cold front. Latest radar trends along with last
few runs of the HRRR indicate some elevated convection is
possible behind the main decaying line of showers through the
next few hours. This activity may be able to move over the
stronger inversion and marine layer, although latest MUCAPE per
SPC mesoanalysis is low and under 250 J/kg east of the NYC metro.
Have included isolated thunder through 03z from around the NYC
metro on N and W with showers elsewhere.
The cold front moves offshore around or shortly after midnight.
The HRRR indicates a few lingering showers are possible across
the forks and SE CT and have included a slight chance through
06z there.
Clearing and drier conditions are expected early Sunday morning
with lows in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough passes through on Sunday, with a secondary cold
front producing isolated to widely sct showers N/W of NYC. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
It will also become breezy, with northwest winds possibly
gusting up to 30 mph in the afternoon. High pressure builds
toward the region Sunday night with temperatures Sunday night
in the 30s to around 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not a whole lot of change in the extended period as high
pressure starts to build back into the region on Monday, with
deep- layered ridging occurring Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Conditions remain dry through this time. The ridge axis
shifts offshore Wednesday, with rain chances increasing
Wednesday afternoon.
A warm front associated a low pressure system moving through the
Great Lakes approaches Wednesday night and its associated lift will
work with increasing moisture for the likelihood of rainfall. A
secondary low center potentially forms and crosses the forecast area
on Thursday, keeping rain likely at least in the morning. Still a
chance of showers Thursday afternoon and night with some uncertainty
in the timing of the system`s exit and the potential of mid level
cyclonic flow. Disagreement among the global models regarding Friday
and Saturday so will continue to carry some low chance PoPs in the
forecast.
Temperatures will be above normal for much of the long term. The
only exception will be Wednesday, with temperatures expected to be
more seasonable.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front passes moves across the terminals through early
Sunday morning. Another weak cold front moves through on
Sunday.
Most terminals are VFR with any lower flight categories likely
remaining brief and within lingering showers for the next few
hours. An isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the
threat of lightning will continue to diminish through the next
few hours. VFR is then expected to prevail after 06z at all
terminals.
Winds may briefly shift to the NW from outflow from weakening
showers and thunderstorms. A few gusts 25-35 kt with the brief
wind shift to the NW. Winds should quickly settle back to the
SW shortly thereafter.
Winds will then shift to towards the WSW-W behind the front
tonight, generally 5-10kt. W-WNW winds on Sunday increase to
10-15 kt and become gusty 20-25 kt late morning into the
afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated thunder possible through 04z. Any wind shift to the NW
will be brief. Winds may also end up light and variable through
04-06z before winds begin shifting to the WSW as the cold front
passes through.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt in the evening,
diminishing overnight.
.Monday...VFR. NW G20kt.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...Mainly VFR early, then MVFR or lower in late in
developing rain.
.Thursday...MVFR or lower in rain early, then possible
improvement to VFR late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Visibilities have improved over the eastern waters ahead of the
approaching cold front.
SCA for the ocean waters extended through Sunday night, with 5+
ft seas and gust up to 25 kt expected on the ocean waters
Sunday in W flow ahead of another cold front. SCA conditions
also expected after frontal passage across the remainder of the
waters late on Sunday and into Sunday night.
Other than some early morning leftover 5ft seas on the far eastern
ocean waters, we should see sub-sca criteria conditions Monday
through Wednesday. Winds and sea will then build back to SCA levels
Wednesday night as low pressure moves across the area waters. Winds
will fall below SCA levels on Thursday however seas will remain
elevated through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers along a cold front the first half of tonight may
produce brief heavy downpours, but no hydrologic issues are
anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/Fig
HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
916 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region tonight. High
pressure will move across the Southeast through Monday then move
offshore Tuesday. A weak cold front will move southward through the
area Monday. Another low pressure and frontal system will move to
our northwest Wednesday night into Thursday followed by high pressure
into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front continues to move through eastern Pennsylvania.
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of that front began to wind
down, but moved into an area with DCAPE over 600 J/kg and began
to flare up over the I-95 corridor from just south of Trenton
through Wilmington. The highest DCAPE is over Delmarva and
southern New Jersey, and latest radar has those storms tracking
to the northeast. KPHL gusted to 42 kt, and KILG gusted to 35
kt. There should be a surge of 35 to 45 kt wind gusts associated
with these storms over the next hour or so, but 00Z HRRR has
them winding down by 03Z. 00Z HRRR also showing a few storms
firing up in southern New Jersey, as that front continues to
approach, but should wind down in the 03-04Z time frame.
Once the cold front passes tonight, partial clearing is
anticipated. The wind is expected to shift to the west.
Temperatures will likely fall into the 40s at most locations by
daybreak on Sunday.
On Sunday, cooler but drier weather is expected behind the
front. As the main trough axis moves through, considerable cloud
cover (stratocumulus) is likely to develop due to the cold pool
of air aloft. There is a slight chance of a shower flurry in
some of the northern zones by late in the day. With only modest
cold advection behind Saturday`s cold front, highs will be
cooler but still fairly mild, mainly mid to upper 50s with some
cooler values north. Finally, as the trough axis passes, low
level winds increase, and it could be quite breezy during the
afternoon and evening, with west-northwesterly gusts of around
30 mph likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A period of quiet weather as high pressure settles in a weak
cold front settles down from the north, but except for some
clouds, a insignificant feature. Temperatures Monday well above
normal with low to mid 60s most areas for highs and mid/upper
50s for the NW areas. Overall, a pleasant day.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough that was over the East during the weekend heads out
to sea and will be replaced by mean ridging aloft. This will lead
to a week of mild spring temperatures. Our present forecast features
high temps above normal each day, except Wednesday, with maxs in
the 60s for most areas. On Wednesday, highs will be only normal
which for this time of year is mid 50s for PHL and metro areas
nearby and upper 40s/low 50s across the NW areas. Overnight lows
will be mild too with mostly 40s and 30s NW.
Much of the long range will be dry, continuing a dry month for our
area. The one exception will be the Wed/Wed night/Thu periods when a
stronger low well to the west (IN/IL) sends a few shortwaves/fronts
across our region. Going along with the NBM pops and neighboring
offices, Likely and some Categorical pops are in the forecast attm.
Looking ahead into next weekend, the ridge across the East relaxes a
bit, so temperatures will probably be closer to normal. An
approaching trough may create the opportunity for some spring
showers too. Way too early to be specific.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of tonight...A line of SHRA and TSRA will pass through the
I-95 terminals through 02-03Z. Gusts to 40 kt likely in the
strongest storms. There is a chance for some SHRA/TSRA at KMIV
and KACY from 03Z-04Z, but chances are minimal. Conditions
shouldbecome VFR throughout. However, there is the chance for
fog development, especially in areas of rain, as lingering low
level moisture may result in patchy fog should winds lighten up
enough. Winds mainly from the west at 5 to 8 kt, but may be more
west-northwest early in the night then more west- southwest
later. Moderate confidence.
Sunday... Mainly VFR. However, increasing cloud cover is expected,
and we will probably see some CIGs of 2000 to 4000 ft develop by
afternoon especially from PHL west. Westerly winds increasing to 10
to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt by afternoon and evening, locally a
little stronger. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sun night/Mon/Tue...VFR. W or NW Winds from 5 to 10 knots
gusting to 15 knots into the afternoon.
Wed/Thu...Mostly VFR but scattered showers may produce MVFR/IFR
at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
Atlantic coastal waters, with seas around 5 ft expected through the
night.
Sunday... The SCA has been extended through Sunday for the Atlantic
coastal waters of New Jersey and off the mouth of Delaware Bay. A
lull in conditions is possible during the morning, but seas will
remain close to 5 ft. By afternoon, westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30
kt will likely develop. The SCA may also need to be extended for the
Delaware coastal waters, and one may need to be issued for Delaware
Bay due to the wind potential. Those areas should be sub-SCA during
the morning, however.
Outlook...
Sunday night...SCA conditions likely with northwest winds
gusting from 25 to 30 knots and seas ranging from 3 to 5 feet.
Mon/Tue...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
Wed...Sub-SCA conditions expected during the day, then SE winds
gusting around 25 knots and seas nearing 5 feet into the
overnight.
Thu...SCA possible. Showers.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>454.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ455.
&&
$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...MPS/O`Brien
Short Term...Davis/O`Hara
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...O`Brien/O`Hara
Marine...O`Brien/O`Hara
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
125 PM PDT Sat Mar 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger through the day with mountain snow causing
travel impacts to the weekend travelers. Dry with breezy north
wind early next week. Unseasonably warm weather by the middle of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Northern California radars are in precipitation mode this
afternoon with Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. Rain
amounts have been rather meager in the Valley with the initial
wave of precipitation that pushed through during the morning
hours. Some Valley airports that that have reported measurable
rainfall through 1 PM PDT include Redding, Red Bluff, and
Stockton. Sacramento-area stations have either traced or reported
nothing. The higher stratiform cloud bases combined with the
drier layer between the surface and cloud bases resulted in the
virga for much of the morning hours.
For the rest of the day, high-resolution models have indicated
the potential for some afternoon convection in the Valley and
foothills, with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or
two. Latest HRRR guidance depicts upward of 100-300 J/kg most
unstable CAPE throughout much of the Sacramento Valley. SPC Day 1
guidance was updated earlier today to include the general thunder
risk for most of the Central Valley. Any strong showers or
isolated thunderstorms that do develop have the potential to
produce brief heavy downpours, lightning, small hail, and
gusty/erratic winds.
Snow showers in the mountains will continue to bring travel-
related impacts to motorists in the form of chain controls and
travel delays. Motorists are always advised to check with Caltrans
for the latest road conditions. Snowfall in the northern Sierra
will generally remain on the light side with storm total of 2 to 6
inches above about 5500 ft, with locally higher amounts going up
in elevation.
Precipitation will diminish overnight with dry and breezy
north/east winds expected for Sunday. Wind-related impacts will be
limited as the gusts are expected to remain between 20-30 mph in
the Valley, and locally stronger gusts for the wind-prone mountain
gaps, peaks, canyons, and ridgetops.
Heading into the next workweek, ensembles and cluster analysis
continue to indicate a rapid day-to-day warming trend region-wide
by Tuesday. Expect widespread 80s to be realized with additional
warming by Wednesday (see extended for more details). // Rowe
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Widespread 80s will continue on Wednesday as an anomalously
strong upper-level ridge axis centers over the West Coast. This
will boost temperatures to around 15-25 deg F above normal. Some
locations in the central/northern Sacramento Valley may flirt with
the 90 deg F mark, including Redding, Red Bluff, and Chico.
Latest National Blend of Models gives roughly a 20-30% chance of
exceeding 90 deg F in the northern Sacramento Valley for
Wednesday, March 23. Compared to 1991-2020 climatology, the
average first 90 deg F day for these locations is early May.
Ridge axis starts to pivot inland on Thursday, resulting in a
degree or two of cooling for most locations. Dry conditions are
forecast to prevail in the extended through at least next week
Saturday. // Rowe
&&
.AVIATION...
A Pacific weather system is moving through NorCal, bringing
showers, mountain snow, and possibly a few thunderstorms. MVFR
conditions possible across the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys
through about 00Z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms possible in the
Sacramento Valley and Foothills 21Z-02Z with small hail and
surface wind gusts 25-35kts in the vicinity. In the Sierra,
widespread precipitation with IFR/LIFR conditions continuing thru
about 06Z Sunday (snow levels 050-060). Northerly surface wind
gusts increase around 15Z Sunday, with 20-30kt gusts in the Valley
and up to 40kt gusts in the Sierra.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Burney
Basin / Eastern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$