Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/20/22


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 The main adjustment to the forecast was to add patchy fog towards the Turtle Mountains. The HRRR has been fairly persistent in showing the fog potential in that area, and with Langdon dropping to 6 miles, there appears to be enough evidence to add it into the forecast. Will confine the fog to the tonight period since winds should pick up later, and mid and high level clouds have also been on the increase. This is also consistent with the HRRR which has suggested the fog won`t last too long in any given location, and is generally gone by early Sunday morning. Regional radar loops show some increase in returns from the mid- level clouds going through central North Dakota. The 00Z BIS sounding was dry in the low levels and with near term model solutions dry for tonight, did not add any pops to the forecast. In general, don`t think it would amount to more than a few sprinkles. UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Overall, the forecast remains in good shape. The sprinkles / isolated showers from earlier have dissipated, with mainly mid and high level clouds remaining. One thing we will have to monitor is the potential for stratus / fog towards the Turtle Mountains later tonight. The HRRR has been showing that possibility, and some other short range models have also been showing a similar scenario. Another part of that question is whether or not the main fog chances will remain east of the forecast area. For now, did not add it (fog) into the forecast, but will monitor trends for later updates. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Mild temperatures continue through the short term period. A cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation to start the work week. In the upper levels, an eastward transitioning ridge was located over the Northern Rockies and High Plains, while a trough axis was moving over the Pacific coast. As the ridge moves over the Northern Plains through the weekend, mild temperatures will be common under a coinciding 850mb thermal ridge. Tonight, a surface low will deepen over MT/WY with height falls aloft ahead of the incoming Pacific trough. Winds turning southerly will keep Sunday morning lows mild as well, ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s for most areas. Sunday afternoon, the surface low and associated cold front will approach the western North Dakota border from the west. Ahead of the front, breezy southeast winds with highs again in the 50s/60s south and west and 40s northeast are expected. Though southeast winds don`t usually favor efficient boundary layer mixing, the warm low level air mass (NAEFS 850mb temperatures exceeding the 90th climatological percentile for this time of year) will allow for another day of above normal highs. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 The first half of next week will be highlighted by cooler temperatures and chances for rain or snow Monday and Tuesday. The region will be impacted by a split-stream trough mid-week, as a northern stream shortwave interacts with a much deeper trough that will move out of the Four Corners and eject a surface low through the Great Lakes region. There continues to be a wide spread in QPF solutions as global models struggle to handle the complexity of the deep southwest CONUS low as well as the interaction with the northern stream wave. Over the past several days, the deterministic GFS has continued to be the westward outlier, bringing the 1"+ QPF contour through the James River Valley. However not only is the deterministic GFS the westward outlier among peers such as ECMWF/NAM/Canadian but it is further west than most of its own ensemble members. 12Z GEFS members show 10-40% probabilities of exceeding 0.5" in the James River Valley, dropping off west and north. While phasing of the northern stream wave and deeper southern low may aid in closing the cyclonic flow and create a longer period of northwest quadrant precipitation, it`s difficult to believe the precipitation rates depicted into the James as the GFS is showing. The blend of ensembles overall, including the NBM output, looks far more reasonable where greatest chances for more significant QPF are kept near or east of the North Dakota border. Precipitation type should be a mix of rain and snow, depending on time of day during the longer duration event from Sunday night into Tuesday. Confidence in accumulation potential is low, but at the time significant accumulations look unlikely. The forecast for the second half of next weekend dries out as a mean ridging pattern looks likely in some form. There may be a chance of precipitation late in the week with a fast moving shortwave, but the blend of probabilities keeps chances very low at this lead time. While there is a potential for temperatures to rebound above the early week 30s/40s highs expected, the spread in guidance becomes very large as models differ on how to progress the previous low out of the region and quickly to build the next ridge. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. That being said, KMOT may have to be watched with some short term model solutions suggesting status/fog could develop just east of the terminal location. For now, did not bring it (fog/stratus) into the TAF with low confidence in it developing as far west at KMOT. Winds will become more steady out of the southeast tonight, but western locations will see a wind switch on Sunday as an area of low pressure makes its way into the region. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...King SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...King
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1100 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers this evening along with isolated thunderstorms possible over western-central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Then a drying trend overnight. Sunday will be dry and mild, but breezy. Dry, blustery but seasonable weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday. A frontal system looks to bring precipitation to our area by Wednesday night into Thursday. This may bring a brief period of wintry weather before transitioning to predominantly rain. Temperatures through the workweek should be around seasonable or slightly above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... No major changes to the forecast. A front extended from about Cohasset MA, across northern RI, into northern CT this evening. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showed only a couple hundred Joules of CAPE to work with this evening. Had a few storms earlier that got tall enough to produce pea-sized hail. The trends are for diminishing thunderstorms as this evening progresses. Tried to time out the rainfall and thunderstorm chances for the rest of tonight. Liked the HRRR/time-lagged ensemble HRRR the best for that. Not expecting temperatures to change much overnight. 730 PM Update: Strong line of showers and thunderstorms currently situated over eastern NY and PA will reach southern New England around 9PM. SPC mesoanalysis reveals that by that time instability will be waning across southern New England and the threat for severe storms will be minimal. Despite weak instability, strong deep- layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may provide enough dynamic/thermodynamic instability to maintain a couple of strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. HRRR and NSSL-WRF Hi-Res models have resolved the convection over eastern NY/PA well thus far. Using these models as guidance we`d expect any organized thunderstorm activity to fade by the time this line reaches Worcester. As the frontal system continues to the east coast there should only be a scattered light to moderate rain showers. Previous Discussion Overnight... Dry slot and occluded front sweep across the region overnight, thus improving conditions/drying trend as winds shift to the SW. Very mild by mid to late March standards, with lows only 45-50, which are normal daytime highs! Patchy dense fog, especially during the evening but thinning and eroding overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM update... Sunday... Warm start to the day combined with morning sunshine and SW winds becoming west as short wave and cold front approach the region. This will boost highs to 60-65 across eastern MA/RI and into eastern CT, 15-20 degs above normal! Mid to upper 50s elsewhere, low 50s for the outer Cape and Islands. Cooling temps and cyclonic flow aloft will support diurnal clouds to develop during the afternoon. Therefore, the morning will feature the most sunshine. Could be some lingering patchy fog along the south coast and islands at sunrise, but that should burn off by late morning given SW winds and strong March sunshine. Any showers from approaching S/WV and associated cold front, should hold off until after sunset. The only exception may be across western MA/CT. Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Sunday night... Scattered showers possible with S/WV and associated cold front. Rain showers may mix with or end as snow showers across high terrain of northern MA, but with surface temps above freezing, no impact expected. Cooler but temps likely remain above freezing, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights: * Blustery and dry through Tues night, with dry conditions continuing into Wed. * Frontal system spreads precipitation in by Wed night and continuing into Thurs. Wintry weather possible at onset, especially along/north of the Mass Pike but eventually changing to rain for Thurs. Rain and wintry weather amounts still are uncertain but looks to be a significant precipitation maker. * Remains unsettled into Friday but generally dry. * Temperatures are around or slightly above seasonable levels. Monday and Tuesday Deep northwest flow pattern early next week will support dry conditions and plenty of sunshine for southern New England. CAA aloft supports steep lapse rates on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon allowing 25-30 mph gusts aloft to mix down to the surface. Generally quiet start to the week with seasonable high temperatures in the low-mid 50s on Monday and upper 40s to low 50s on Tuesday. Wednesday Mid-level ridge axis builds over southern New England on Wednesday supporting a continuation of dry/seasonable conditions. However winds aloft are expected to weaken, thus gusty winds during the afternoon are not expected. Increasing cloudiness by Wednesday afternoon as a southerly flow develops ahead of low-pressure system advancing through the Midwest. Wednesday night through Thursday night Next shot for substantial precipitation will occur Wednesday night into Thursday as a frontal-wave pushes through southern New England. PWATs increase to an inch or higher which may support heavy downpours as the system moves through the region. Expecting precipitation type to be mostly rain, but can`t rule out some snow/wintry precipitation for the western high terrain. Still some details to iron out, but anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of widespread liquid precipitation is on the table. Friday and Saturday Dry and seasonable conditions forecast to start next weekend. Eyeing a coastal-low pressure system that may bring precipitation to southern New England late next weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...high confidence on trends, lower on exact details including timing. LIFR/IFR with patchy dense fog and scattered showers. A few thunderstorms may track into our region through 06z, with brief heavy rain and small hail. Should see LIFR ceilings improve to IFR or better after 06Z from west east except over The Cape and Islands. LIFR/IFR visibilities will remain an issue for the eastern areas through day break. Sunday...High confidence. Any leftover IFR/LIFR at sunrise along the coast, quickly improves to VFR. Dry weather prevails along with modest WSW wind 10-20 kt. Sunday night...high confidence. Scattered showers with MVFR conditions across western-central MA, VFR elsewhere. West winds becoming NW. KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing and details. KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing and details. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...NE/SE winds trending south with gusts up to 25 kt at times. Patchy dense fog limits vsby to less than 1/2 mile at times. After midnight, wind shift to the SW results in slowly improving conditions, along with a drying trend, after scattered evening showers. Sunday...WSW winds 10-20 kt. Any patchy dense fog at sunrise, quickly erodes. Dry weather. Sunday night...west winds 10-20 kt become NW overnight. Scattered rain showers. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain likely. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RM NEAR TERM...Belk/RM SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Belk/Nocera/RM MARINE...Belk/Nocera/RM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1141 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Great Lakes will track through the St Lawrence Valley tonight into Sunday bring bouts of moderate rain with a few thunderstorms possible. A break in precipitation is expected Sunday before more showers move through Sunday night into Monday. Generally quiet weather is expected Monday through mid week. Another low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday with unsettled conditions lingering into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Latest Update... Storm segments along a line which will be exiting eastern New Hampshire as of around 04Z will continue to weaken as they enter the state of Maine. The latest HRRR has this precipitation exiting the region near the Midcoast around 06Z or 07Z. Latest HREF probabilities suggests lowering visibilities likely will occur right along the Midcoast region. With plenty of low level moisture entering the area with rainfall, and light winds, this appears to be reasonable. Therefore will leave the dense fog advisories in place. Otherwise, only minor adjustments made to the near term wind fields, temperatures and pops. 852 PM Update... Monitor lines of showers and thunderstorms which will enter New Hampshire late this evening. Elevated convection is expected at this feature crosses through western portions of the forecast area around 02Z-03Z per the latest HRRR and weakens as showers/storms move through before exiting the Midcoast region around 07Z. Nevertheless, a few of the storms may produce gusty winds over portions of southern New Hampshire. Have made some minor modifications to the near term grids this evening as cool and a raw northeasterly winds continues at the surface. Fog will become more dense with time, hence dense fog advisories will remain in place over coastal areas. Have been monitoring the tides this evening which are running above normal and near their peak for the astronomical high tide cycle. May have some minor beach erosion during the overnight period. Prev Disc... Latest surface pressure analysis by the RAP13 shows that low pressure is currently located over the eastern Great Lakes with a trailing cold front located over western NY and PA. KGYX Radar shows an area of convective showers located across eastern NH and southwestern ME with a northeastward motion. These showers have at times become a little more elevated in nature and some of them have produced a few lightning strikes across southwestern NH. Further to the west a line of developing thunderstorms is located across western NY state and this line is moving east towards western New England. Low pressure will continue to move through the St. Lawrence valley tonight and in doing so will push a surface cold front through the area this evening. A secondary low is expected to form from this front as it moves over the Gulf of Maine. High resolution forecast guidance is in generally good agreement for this front to arrive in western NH between 02-05Z before exiting downeast Maine by 12Z Sunday. As this front crosses it will enter a somewhat unstable airmass with about 60-70 kts of 0-6KM bulk shear, about 200 m2s-2 of helicity, along with some elevated CAPE. As a result, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, mainly across western NH this evening as the front crosses. The main threat would be for briefly heavy downpours and gusty winds. Elsewhere, expecting showers to continue through the first half of the night along with areas of fog. As winds begin to weaken tonight this fog will likely become dense in some areas. The 12Z HREF shows high probabilities for 1/2 mile or less visibility along coastal areas for this evening and overnight tonight and given downward trends in observed visibility went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory across coastal zones. HREF probabilities indicate that visibility may actually begin to improve from Portland south by around midnight while declining further to the east through dawn tomorrow. Lingering shower activity will become more isolated late this evening across most areas but will likely continue across the north and mountains due to developing upslope flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will move across eastern Canada on Sunday but our area will still sit under cyclonic flow with some lingering moisture and stiff northwest winds. A weak shortwave trough will swing through the area tomorrow evening and there is growing confidence that this will allow for a few additional showers to develop across much of the CWA during the late day and early evening hours. It will otherwise be a partly cloudy day south of the mountains with downsloping winds allowing temperatures to once again make a run for the 60 degree mark. Across the far north and mountains upslope flow will result in additional cloud cover along with showers of both rain and snow throughout the day. Temperatures will begin to finally cool on Sunday night and therefore any lingering moisture will likely fall as snow, mainly across the north and light accumulations may result. It will otherwise be a cool and breezy night with low temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s from north to south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong upstream blocking over western Europe will allow for an upper level low to meander over the Canadian Maritimes Monday through Tuesday night. Cyclonic flow aloft will bring chances for snow showers in the mountains to the International Border during this time frame with the greatest chances occurring Monday with a cold frontal passage. Short wave ridging will then build in Wednesday bringing fair weather across the entire forecast area. Blocking over western Europe will continue through the end of the week while retrograding some over the North Atlantic the second half of the week. All the while a broad trough/upper low will slowly slide across the eastern CONUS Thursday into the weekend. This trough/upper low will send a surface low through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with similar characteristics to the system impacting the Northeast today. Unsettled conditions look to continue over next weekend as troughing lingers over the Northeast. Monday will be breezy and mild for areas south of the mountains. Upslope flow and a cold frontal passage will bring clouds and chances for rain and snow showers across the mountains to the International Border while areas downstream will see partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will climb into upper 40s to low 50s south of the mountains while far northern areas will be restricted to the 30s. Northwest flow will be aligned through a deep layer and with favorable mixing winds may gust upwards of 30 MPH late Monday morning through the afternoon. Cooler and drier air will continue to enter the area Monday night with lows in the 20s. Tuesday will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday with breezy NW winds continuing as low pressure becomes vertically stacked in the Canadian Maritimes. Short wave ridging will bring fair weather Wednesday with much of the area warming into the 40s with low 50s expected across southern NH. Active weather is expected Thursday into Friday as a slow moving upper trough/closed low will trek towards the Ohio Valley with a surface low tracking northeastward into the Great Lakes region. This system will draw high PWAT air from the Gulf of Mexico into New England Thursday. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement that the forecast area will see decent shot of QPF with ensemble means around 1 inch across much of the area by Friday. In some ways this system looks similar to one moving through the Northeast today into tomorrow. Some notable differences involve a cooler antecedent airmass with solutions from the GFS/ECMWF/CMC deterministic runs and ensembles showing a secondary low forming offshore near Cape Cod that will help to hold colder air over the forecast area. Therefore, this system looks to be capable of bringing more in the way of wintry precipitation Thursday and Friday, although at this time range confidence is low on p-type details and amounts. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through tonight as an area of low pressure moves over the St. Lawrence valley and a cold front crosses the area. Expecting widespread SHRA through this evening with isolated TSRA over western and southern terminals between mainly 02-05Z. Widespread FG is expected through tonight. Flight categories will improve to VFR on Sunday/Sunday night across most terminals but MVFR restrictions will likely linger across northern terminals such as KHIE due to upslope SHRA/SHSN. Northwest winds may gust up to 25-30 kts at times across all terminals. Long Term...Mainly VFR is expected Monday through Wednesday outside of some upslope clouds and showers bringing potential for MVFR at KHIE Monday. Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Thursday with restrictions likely due to low cigs and reduced vsby in rain or snow. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions expected through Sunday along the outer waters as onshore flow turns offshore behind a cold frontal passage tonight. Seas to remain up through at least Sunday. Long Term...Gusty NW winds will bring SCA conditions Monday into Wednesday morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA conditions Wednesday before southeasterly flow increases Thursday ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. && .HYDROLOGY... Will continue to monitor Woodstock, Conway and Davisville overnight night as they will be above action stage. Interior rivers and streams continue to respond to snow melt today, showing steady rises following an offset diurnal trend due to well above freezing temperatures and dew points area- wide. Latest SWE change analysis shows modest and steady melt through all areas of remaining snowpack, except for in the western Maine mountains and a few spots in Coos county. A mostly-rain low pressure system crosses the region tonight bringing widespread rains to the area. While the heaviest precipitation amounts to 1-1.0 inches along the coast, there`s no snow pack here. Further north, QPF is closer to 0.30-0.50 inch. This distribution will result in additional runoff through the Whites and some of the western Maine snowpack, but the heaviest amounts near the coast pose little threat with no river ice or snow pack. Further inland however the rain and snowmelt could lead to a few rivers reaching action stage by Sunday. With the increased CFS flow coming and the warm temperatures, the remaining river ice could flush out this weekend on many interior river systems. Ice jam flooding threat still seems to be limited due to multiple freeze/thaw cycles over the last month helping to rot and thin the ice in many areas. Even so, the potential for ice jam flooding over the next 36hrs can`t be completely ruled out, especially on the Pemi where a previous jam is still restricting flow near Plymouth, NH. Overall, good chance for northern river system to flush their ice this weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ022-025>028. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy and warm ahead of an approaching cold front with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. Drier and cooler air will overspread the region Sunday and Monday with warming into mid week ahead of low pressure. Wet conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday as Gulf moisture is drawn into the Carolinas ahead of low pressure that passes to our northwest. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. && .UPDATE... Risk for severe weather has ended, with only an isolated chance of an elevated thunderstorm near the coast overnight. Maintained low pops near the coast overnight and during pre-dawn hours before cold front moves offshore in the morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front still well west of the area as of 18z moving through the central Carolinas, though subtle prefrontal troughing noted ahead of this. Have had a tough time getting convection going thus far with overall limited instability. Still not out of the question per Marginal risk by SPC for a couple of strong to svr tstms over the next few hours (esp. east of 95 where we`ve had less cloud cover), though the threat should diminish steadily after 00z. Main threats continue to be isolated severe hail and damaging winds. It should also be noted that some of the high res models keep much of the area dry through the event, so have continued to cap pops in the 20-30% range. Shower chances diminish steadily from NW to SE through the evening/overnight. Winds will shift westerly late evening through 6z and then trend WNW into the morning. This will bring cooler and drier air to the area, with lows Sunday morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. High pressure will build in from a ~1025mb center near Mississippi/Alabama on Sunday, bringing dry, offshore WNW/NW winds. Aloft, mid/upper trough axis will swing through the area through the day, and offshore by late afternoon. End result will be abundant sunshine and temps seasonably mild in the upper 60s to around 70. Noted that much of area remains in moderate drought (esp. closer to coast) and if latest high res models such as HRRR are correct showing limited to no precip through this evening, could be some fire wx challenges tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Seasonable wx for the short term period. Low temps in the low/mid 40s Sunday night as the core of sfc high pressure builds into the area, allowing for a clear sky and light NW flow. The high moves directly overhead on Monday, with mainly light/variable winds and high temps ranging from the upr 60s along the coast to low. Minor coastal flooding may occur along the lower Cape Fear River during high tide cycles this period following the recent full moon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry wx expected Monday night through at least late Tuesday as sfc high pressure over the area shifts offshore. Expect above normal temps through the period, with highs each day in the 70s. A cold front approaches from the west midweek, bringing elevated rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Guidance has come into slightly better agreement on the timing of the front, and still have the highest widespread PoPs (70%) Wednesday night. Included slight change of thunder, but instability doesn`t look all that impressive. A drying trend thereafter through the end of the week as the front pushes offshore. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rain chances have continued to trend down for this evening. Will see scattered to broken VFR clouds overnight, around 6-9 kft near the coast and 20kft inland. A few showers may develop near the coast in the early morning hours as cold front moves across, but no instability for lightning. As front pushes offshore by morning, skies will clear and southwesterly overnight winds become northwesterly for tomorrow sustained around 10-15 kt and gusts to 20 kt tomorrow afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR continues through early week with high pressure. Next frontal system may bring flight restrictions Wed/Thu. && .MARINE... Through Sunday: Expect marginal SCA event through early evening as SW winds/seas ramp up ahead of cold front. A few strong thunderstorms are possible through early evening ahead of the front, capable of producing gusty winds, lightning, and hail. Moderate Wly flow developing overnight will then trend WNW to NW behind the front into tomorrow behind the front. Will be some 15-20kt gusts with this pattern through the day tomorrow but not anticipating SCA conditions at this time. Seas will drop to 2-4ft tomorrow, in a mix of SE 9s waves and 4-6s waves wave trending from SSW to more W/WNW directions associated with the local winds. Sunday Night Through Thursday: Improving winds and seas for early next week as the aforementioned cold front pushes farther offshore. Benign marine conditions through Tuesday as sfc high pressure builds into the area then slides offshore, before winds and seas ramp back up again Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. SCA conditions Wednesday night into Thursday as southerly flow strengthens. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Fair skies and lighter winds will prevail across central and southeast Illinois during the rest of tonight, allowing low temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 30s. After a chilly early morning, ample sunshine and a return to southwesterly winds will boost highs well into the 60s on Sunday. Even warmer temperatures in the lower 70s are expected on Monday with breezy south winds, as dry weather continues through at least early Monday evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Forecast generally looked on track tonight as low clouds about to exit east of IL by Vermilion county at mid evening. Mid evening surface map shows 1000 mb low pressuring approaching the southern Quebec/Ontario province line while weak 1022 mb surface high pressure was over the southern MS river valley and riding northward into the MS river valley. Aloft an upper level trof was shifting just east of IL at mid evening. IR satellite loop shows a few low clouds lingering in eastern Vermilion county IL and these should move out of IL soon. Patchy mid level clouds with bases around 10k ft over central IA associated with a weak short wave, will spread across central/northern IL overnight, but overall fair skies should prevail. Patchy fog could develop over northern IL overnight and early Sunday morning, though latest CAMs have backed off on this and keeping it north of CWA. Decoupling of winds occurred around sunset as gusty WNW winds subsided quickly to under 10 mph and should veer SW during the night and stay under 10 mph. Temps have cooled into the upper 30s to mid 40s and should cool toward dewpoints in the low to mid 30s by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 20z/3pm satellite imagery continues to feature overcast conditions across much of central Illinois, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny along/west of a Galesburg to Springfield line. The clouds will continue to slowly erode from west to east over the next few hours, resulting in mostly clear conditions across the board by mid-evening. Given clear skies and light winds, excellent radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to bottom out in the lower to middle 30s. Will need to keep an eye out for possible fog development north of the Peoria area overnight, as the RAP has been consistently showing this. Since the HRRR/NAM/GFSLAMP all keep visbys up, have not introduced fog at this time. After a cold start to the day, full sunshine and increasing southwesterly winds will push highs on Sunday into the middle to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Monday continues to look like the warmest day of the forecast period as upper heights rise in advance of a slowly approaching storm system. Given sunshine and southerly flow, highs will likely reach the lower 70s. The pleasant early spring weather will be short-lived however, as a prolonged period of unsettled/showery conditions will develop Monday night through at least Thursday. A short-wave trough currently along the West Coast will cross the Rockies and amplify over the southern Plains on Monday. As additional northern-stream energy phases with this system, a large cut-off low will form and meander slowly northeastward into the Great Lakes for the remainder of the week. This will ensure mostly cloudy skies and daily rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. While the heaviest rainfall still looks to set up much further south across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, storm total rainfall of around 1 inch appears likely across much of central Illinois...with higher values of 1 to 2 inches south of I-70. Main forecast challenge will be timing the departure of the system, as some models suggest it may even linger into Friday before finally exiting into the Great Lakes. At this time will maintain rain chances only through Thursday, but would not be surprised to see showers added to the Friday forecast if current trends persist. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 A MVFR cloud deck has recently passed east of BMI and DEC airports and will clear CMI around 01Z. 1000 mb low pressure just east of Georgian Bay Canada will move east toward the Quebec/Ontario province line by midnight, taking is low clouds with it. A weak short wave over central IA will has a few mid level clouds around 10k ft over nw Iowa and may track into central IL overnight. 1021 mb high pressure ridge over the southern MS river valley and riding northward over the MS river valley, will strengthen to 1024 mb by sunset Sunday as it shifts slowly east over KY/TN/AL, while upper level ridge over the High Plains shifts eastward into the MS river valley by sunset Sunday. This will provide fair weather to central IL tonight and Sunday with just few to scattered high clouds. WNW winds around 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts early this evening will subside to 4-8 kts after sunset and back SW. SW winds pick back up to around 10 kts by Sunday afternoon with gusts near 20 kts. Winds veer SSW and diminish back to 5-8 kts by 23Z/6 pm Sunday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1123 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 945 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Scattered light rain and drizzle continues across the northeast half of the forecast area this evening but the back edge of the precipitation is now into western Indiana. Brisk west winds continue although gusts have largely dropped off over the last hour or two. 0130Z temperatures were in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The overall forecast is in excellent shape with the back edge of the light rain and drizzle shifting steadily to the east over the next 2- 3 hours. Back edge of the stratus deck not far behind the light precip as it is approaching the Illinois-Indiana state line as of mid evening with the lower Wabash Valley already experiencing clearing skies. Stratus will scatter steadily over the next several hours from west to east as high pressure finally builds into the region from the west. The surface pressure gradient will relax as well with westerly winds dropping to less than 10kts. Lows in the mid and upper 30s look reasonable. Zone and grid updates out. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 ...Precip ending tonight and sunny with a quick temperature recovery Sunday... The HRRR and other convective allowing models suggest the showers will be ending toward daybreak over northeastern sections as the upper trough moves to the east and surface high pressure moves over the South in the wake of the low pressure system currently lifting northeast across southern Ontario. Model soundings and RH time sections suggest skies will clear from west to east starting late this evening and early overnight over the Wabash Valley. The Muncie area will not see clearing until close to daybreak or perhaps even slightly later. The surface pressure gradient will relax tonight, so west and southwest winds will drop off overnight but perhaps not quite enough for ideal radiational cooling, especially considering the quick transition to warm advection. Think temperatures will stay above freezing with overnight lows in the middle 30s. Dry column per model soundings and rh progs and subsidence associated with high pressure from the Gulf to the Great Lakes will provide sunny skies across all of central Indiana on Sunday. The abundant sunshine and warm advection support well above normal highs in the lower to middle 60s. Normal highs for late March are in the lower and middle 50s. As the high shifts east Sunday night, winds will gain a Gulf fetch while an upper ridge will move into the Mississippi Valley well ahead of an upper low over New Mexico. Will see cirrus spill overtop the ridge. That and the southerly low level winds will keep temperatures from falling to any lower than the lower 40s. && .Long Term...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the next seven...as ridging aloft and moderate south-southwesterly breezes courtesy of the southern surface high sliding to the Carolina coast...continue the trend from Monday, boosting temperatures to the low 70s while dewpoints climb into the 40s under partly sunny skies. The remainder of the long term will favor above normal to near normal temperatures with any late winter arctic air masses contained well north of the region...while a broad H500 trough slowly advances across the Plains through at least mid-week...promoting several days of southwesterly flow and rain chances over Indiana. Low certainty continues regarding details of how the upper trough`s embedded vort- maxs will phase with any surface circulations near the Middle Mississippi Valley. Nevertheless, moderate confidence in several facets: the Monday night-Thursday timeframe will contain at least chances of rain for most locations...with roughly the first half of that period being the more favorable for heavier rains amid both better upper forcing and likely the week`s highest precipitable water values...while the Wednesday-Wednesday night timeframe would have the greatest likelihood of stronger thunderstorms per being near the system`s cold frontal passage. Good chance rainfall totals approach 1.00 inch by the end of the day Tuesday for counties south/west of Bloomington, with lesser amounts likely elsewhere. Several ensemble members of today`s latest guidance are trending the upper trough to be broader, and perhaps dissected by at least a weak H700 dry conveyor near the region around Wednesday, while adequate theta-e remains at the surface...which could translate to partial, yet self-destructive, sunshine. Such details will be refined into next week: shifting these various features 100 miles west/east may greatly alter convective potential. Decent confidence that most of the broad trough`s energy is absorbed northward into the jet`s main flow as a kicking short wave crosses the Great Lakes around Thursday. Temperatures should trend from above normal, especially at night per overcast skies, Monday night to Wednesday...and then generally near normal Wednesday night into the weekend as zonal or weak residual troughing is expected. The normal max/min for the long term at Indianapolis is 55/35. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1123 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 IMPACTS: - VFR conditions through the forecast period - Westerly winds around 10kts Sunday afternoon DISCUSSION: The back edge of the stratus deck is moving through the region late this evening with mainly clear skies developing at all of the terminals likely by forecast issuance time. Brisk westerly flow is dropping off quickly as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. Tranquil weather and mainly clear skies are expected for the forecast period through Sunday night as high pressure builds in. W/SW winds peak at around 10kts or so Sunday afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Update...Ryan Short Term...MK Long Term...AM Aviation...Ryan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
845 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 844 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 No significant changes to going forecast this evening. Surface low pressure responsible for our gloomy and rainy Saturday weather continue to pull away from the Great Lakes region this evening. As of 830 pm, the trailing edge of the lingering light rain shield was just east of the IL/IN border, and will continue to move east through late evening allowing rain to end and cloud cover to decrease from the west across northwest Indiana. Winds will continue to diminish and become light west-southwest, as temperatures fall into the 30s area-wide overnight as weak surface high pressure spreads in from the west. With the end of precipitation and clearing occurring relatively late in the day, and relatively light winds across the area, some fog development is likely later tonight. This appears especially favorable across our western cwa (generally from the Fox River Valley in northeast IL, westward). Recent model trends have backed away from widespread dense fog, with forecast soundings from the RAP for instance depicting somewhat drier low-level profiles just above the surface across our western cwa. Farther east, soundings maintain 10-15 kts of northwest winds a few hundred feet above the surface which suggests more mixing of drier air at the top of the shallow surface-based inversion. Would think areas west and southwest of the Chicago area would still see at least some patchy fog development, though how widespread/dense it becomes is of somewhat low confidence. Inherited forecast included patchy fog mention roughly along/northwest of the I-55 corridor across north/northeast IL and see no reason to deviate from this. Areas to the east should have an overall lower fog potential. Otherwise, made some minor tweaks to temps, lower wind speeds a bit and move the rain/cloud clearing line east a little quicker based on evening radar/satellite and surface obs trends. Forecast appears to be in good shape otherwise, with no further adjustments needed at this time. Ratzer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Through Sunday night... The short term forecast message is the dreary first half of the weekend turning much less so on Sunday. It`s just the details on that transition tonight that are the focus, and those are the light rain/drizzle ending time and fog potential that may linger into early Sunday morning if it does develop. The other item to note is that while highs will peak at or above 60 inland, there will be a lake breeze to develop and this may charge a ways inland, dropping temperatures quickly across parts of the Chicago metro and far northwest Indiana. The cyclonic flow-driven blanket of clouds continues this afternoon with scattered showers within broader areas of drizzle. Occasionally under heavier echoes, light snow or light ice pellets have been observed where melting energy near the ground is marginal. Cloud bases are gradually rising into north central and far northern Illinois, and radar returns have become less widespread there, revealing an approaching end to synoptic lift and also the deeper moist column evident on observed regional soundings this morning. The back edge of the forcing and associated light rain/drizzle will move slowly eastward through early evening, with the last of the light precipitation ending in northwest Indiana likely during mid evening or so. As for the western edge of the clouds, this is approaching the far western forecast area (Dixon/Rockford) as of 245 P.M. This is creeping eastward and will continue so tonight with cloud- bearing flow of 15 kt or so. Do expect much of north central and far northern Illinois to experience some sun before it sets today. Temperatures in parts of north central Illinois may make a run toward or into the upper 40s, while locations east struggle around 40. Some warming will result in mixing across north central Illinois, but all in the all the CWA is vulnerable to some fog formation tonight due to 1.) the late day or after dark clearing, 2.) inherently low temperature-dew point spreads, and 3.) wet ground conditions. One factor that`s less favoring of fog is wind speeds of 10-15 kt as low as 300-500 ft on forecast RAP and NAM soundings. This momentum at the top of the boundary layer can preclude fog formation, especially dense fog, if the other attributes do not compensate. Have added patchy fog wording into the forecast for much of northern Illinois overnight into early Sunday morning. With the aforementioned wind concern and the fact high resolution guidance is not keying in much on low visibility forecasts, have not included any dense verbiage. Surface ridging will pass across the area on Sunday with westerly winds at 925 mb spreading in warmer temperatures to around 10C by mid-late afternoon (much different from the -1C today). While some morning fog is possible that could lift into a short duration stratus, much of the day is anticipated to be sunny. The pattern favors temperatures to jump nicely with highs in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area. The exception are lakeside counties, as the light low-level flow will favor early afternoon development of a lake breeze. This could charge inland at a fairly good clip as shown for instance by the high-res ARW and FV3, but there is uncertainty at that inland pace as the boundary layer over land deepens with some mixing in the mid-late afternoon. Have a forecast fairly large temperature drop in the hourly gridded forecast for locations near the lake, with highs in the low to mid 50s dropping into the low to mid 40s. Sunday night will see clouds thicken under warm advection aloft. The anticyclonically curved jet favors a response of stronger warm advection and attendant saturated isentropic lift well north of the area, so no precipitation is forecast. MTF && .LONG TERM... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Monday through Saturday... Next week, all attention will be on what will likely end up an extended period of time with clouds, waves of rain, breezy winds, and perhaps even snow from time to time as a large low pressure system meanders through the Great Lakes. Currently, an upper-level trough is moving onshore from the Pacific Ocean into northern California ahead of a "pinwheeling" closed upper- level low pressure system centered south of the Alaska Aleutian Islands. As the initial trough tracks southeastward along the US/Mexico border Sunday into Monday, a large area of low-level WAA bolstered by broad southwesterly flow on the western fringe of a 1026mb surface high pressure system anchored along the lower Atlantic coast will lead to rapidly rising heights and the northward progression of a ridge across the central United States. Indeed, 850mb temperatures are poised to rise to the +8 to +9C range in the western Great Lakes on Monday which will support high temperatures at the surface in the upper 60s to lower 70s in spite of gradually increasing upper-level cloud cover. Also on Monday, a secondary upper-level trough originating from the aforementioned Aleutian upper-level low will track across the northern United States, which with the primary trough will set the stage for the development of a several low pressure systems across the heart of the country. Monday night into Tuesday, the southern- most cyclone associated with the original trough will likely become dominant partly due to massive enthalpy release via repeated episodes of severe convection in Texas and eventually Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. Due to the consolidating upper- level waves, the enlarging surface low will be encouraged to lift northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the parent upper-level trough will become massive and eventually encompass much of the continuous United States -- quite literally exemplify the definition of a Rossby Wave. Now, massive upper-level waves often move very slowly which will ultimately result in a prolonged period of stagnant weather in our area. As is often the case with complex wave evolutions, we can only speak in general terms since subtle differences from model guidance to reality can ultimately sway the resulting weather in different directions from the forecast. So, we`ll stick to general forecast themes for next week. After the warm Monday, increasing clouds will likely give way to waves of showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. In addition, fairly breezy east/southeasterly winds appear poised to develop at some point Tuesday into Wednesday as the consolidating surface low pressure system and coinciding packed pressure gradient approach. As the upper-level wave stalls basically overhead, continued waves of showers are all but likely Wednesday and Thursday. It may not be until Friday that the upper-level wave finally breaks down and ejects eastward, but such an evolution will be dependent on the timing of yet another upper-level trough originating from the pin-wheeling Aleutian Low. (In other words, we would not be surprised if the stagnant wet weather continues even into Friday). Tuesday through at least Thursday look solidly cloudy (including low clouds from time to time). Temperatures will hold fairly steady Tuesday and Wednesday more or less +/- 5 degrees from 50, with eventual cooling Thursday into Friday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s. Should waves of precipitation coincide with nighttime hours when temperatures are coldest (and solar irradiance isn`t available for melting), at least some opportunity also exists for snow to be a transient precipitation type. But confidence in such is much lower overall. As we head into next week, the weather should follow the general themes outlined above. Added detail will be provided in later forecast packages as the evolution of the parent waves and surface lows becomes more clear. In summary, enjoy tomorrow and Monday since Tuesday onward looks wet, cloudy, and dreary. Borchardt && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Aviation Forecast Highlights: * Rain ending shortly for Chicago terminals, with improvement to VFR conditions early-mid evening. * Some potential for fog mainly west of the Chicago terminals later tonight/early Sunday. IFR visibilities possible. * Lake breeze expected Sunday afternoon, though somewhat low confidence on timing of wind shift for ORD/MDW. Surface low pressure continues to pull away from the region this evening, with cyclonic low level winds gradually decreasing across the western Lakes and Mississippi Valley. Trailing edge of light rain shield associated with the departing low pressure system was moving east across the Chicago metro area at this time, with precip ending within the hour for ORD/MDW. Lower MVFR clouds were also eroding from the west-northwest with the end of precipitation, and terminals should see improvement to VFR during the early to mid evening hours. Weak surface high pressure ridge the the west across IA will move east into IL later tonight, with winds becoming light west- southwest overnight. The combination of wet ground, light surface winds and clearing skies will likely allow for some fog development later tonight into early Sunday, particularly west of the Chicago metro. Though not particularly aggressive with widespread fog, model guidance generally focuses most likely areas for lower visibilities west of DPA and especially along/west of the I-39 corridor (SW of RFD) after midnight. Slightly stronger winds just above the boundary layer appear to be the limiting factor for widespread dense fog, and winds just above the top of the shallow surface-based inversion will be lighter to the west. With some concern that models may be under-doing extent of fog have trended toward a a period of IFR visibility at RFD 09-13Z, and did indicate some VFR light fog at DPA. Will need to monitor trends later this evening to see if fog needs to be hit harder. Otherwise, only other concern is the likely development of a lake breeze off of Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon. Models not too excited with a lake breeze push, likely due to 10-15 kt west flow above the surface during the afternoon. However, plentiful late March sun and 60 degree temps expected inland should support a decent lake breeze, and have maintained a mention in ORD/MDW forecasts with an easterly wind shift at 22Z. Low confidence in the exact timing with models considerably slower (00-01Z). Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 10 PM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSChicago www.twitter.com/NWSChicago www.youtube.com/NWSChicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1026 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight. Another weak cold front will move through on Sunday. Then, high pressure will build across the area Monday and Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Updated to account for a little slower timing to showers accompanying the cold front. Latest radar trends along with last few runs of the HRRR indicate some elevated convection is possible behind the main decaying line of showers through the next few hours. This activity may be able to move over the stronger inversion and marine layer, although latest MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis is low and under 250 J/kg east of the NYC metro. Have included isolated thunder through 03z from around the NYC metro on N and W with showers elsewhere. The cold front moves offshore around or shortly after midnight. The HRRR indicates a few lingering showers are possible across the forks and SE CT and have included a slight chance through 06z there. Clearing and drier conditions are expected early Sunday morning with lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough passes through on Sunday, with a secondary cold front producing isolated to widely sct showers N/W of NYC. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It will also become breezy, with northwest winds possibly gusting up to 30 mph in the afternoon. High pressure builds toward the region Sunday night with temperatures Sunday night in the 30s to around 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Not a whole lot of change in the extended period as high pressure starts to build back into the region on Monday, with deep- layered ridging occurring Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Conditions remain dry through this time. The ridge axis shifts offshore Wednesday, with rain chances increasing Wednesday afternoon. A warm front associated a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes approaches Wednesday night and its associated lift will work with increasing moisture for the likelihood of rainfall. A secondary low center potentially forms and crosses the forecast area on Thursday, keeping rain likely at least in the morning. Still a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and night with some uncertainty in the timing of the system`s exit and the potential of mid level cyclonic flow. Disagreement among the global models regarding Friday and Saturday so will continue to carry some low chance PoPs in the forecast. Temperatures will be above normal for much of the long term. The only exception will be Wednesday, with temperatures expected to be more seasonable. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front passes moves across the terminals through early Sunday morning. Another weak cold front moves through on Sunday. Most terminals are VFR with any lower flight categories likely remaining brief and within lingering showers for the next few hours. An isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the threat of lightning will continue to diminish through the next few hours. VFR is then expected to prevail after 06z at all terminals. Winds may briefly shift to the NW from outflow from weakening showers and thunderstorms. A few gusts 25-35 kt with the brief wind shift to the NW. Winds should quickly settle back to the SW shortly thereafter. Winds will then shift to towards the WSW-W behind the front tonight, generally 5-10kt. W-WNW winds on Sunday increase to 10-15 kt and become gusty 20-25 kt late morning into the afternoon. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Isolated thunder possible through 04z. Any wind shift to the NW will be brief. Winds may also end up light and variable through 04-06z before winds begin shifting to the WSW as the cold front passes through. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Night...VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt in the evening, diminishing overnight. .Monday...VFR. NW G20kt. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...Mainly VFR early, then MVFR or lower in late in developing rain. .Thursday...MVFR or lower in rain early, then possible improvement to VFR late. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Visibilities have improved over the eastern waters ahead of the approaching cold front. SCA for the ocean waters extended through Sunday night, with 5+ ft seas and gust up to 25 kt expected on the ocean waters Sunday in W flow ahead of another cold front. SCA conditions also expected after frontal passage across the remainder of the waters late on Sunday and into Sunday night. Other than some early morning leftover 5ft seas on the far eastern ocean waters, we should see sub-sca criteria conditions Monday through Wednesday. Winds and sea will then build back to SCA levels Wednesday night as low pressure moves across the area waters. Winds will fall below SCA levels on Thursday however seas will remain elevated through the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers along a cold front the first half of tonight may produce brief heavy downpours, but no hydrologic issues are anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig NEAR TERM...BC/DS SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/Fig HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
916 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region tonight. High pressure will move across the Southeast through Monday then move offshore Tuesday. A weak cold front will move southward through the area Monday. Another low pressure and frontal system will move to our northwest Wednesday night into Thursday followed by high pressure into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front continues to move through eastern Pennsylvania. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of that front began to wind down, but moved into an area with DCAPE over 600 J/kg and began to flare up over the I-95 corridor from just south of Trenton through Wilmington. The highest DCAPE is over Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and latest radar has those storms tracking to the northeast. KPHL gusted to 42 kt, and KILG gusted to 35 kt. There should be a surge of 35 to 45 kt wind gusts associated with these storms over the next hour or so, but 00Z HRRR has them winding down by 03Z. 00Z HRRR also showing a few storms firing up in southern New Jersey, as that front continues to approach, but should wind down in the 03-04Z time frame. Once the cold front passes tonight, partial clearing is anticipated. The wind is expected to shift to the west. Temperatures will likely fall into the 40s at most locations by daybreak on Sunday. On Sunday, cooler but drier weather is expected behind the front. As the main trough axis moves through, considerable cloud cover (stratocumulus) is likely to develop due to the cold pool of air aloft. There is a slight chance of a shower flurry in some of the northern zones by late in the day. With only modest cold advection behind Saturday`s cold front, highs will be cooler but still fairly mild, mainly mid to upper 50s with some cooler values north. Finally, as the trough axis passes, low level winds increase, and it could be quite breezy during the afternoon and evening, with west-northwesterly gusts of around 30 mph likely. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A period of quiet weather as high pressure settles in a weak cold front settles down from the north, but except for some clouds, a insignificant feature. Temperatures Monday well above normal with low to mid 60s most areas for highs and mid/upper 50s for the NW areas. Overall, a pleasant day. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper trough that was over the East during the weekend heads out to sea and will be replaced by mean ridging aloft. This will lead to a week of mild spring temperatures. Our present forecast features high temps above normal each day, except Wednesday, with maxs in the 60s for most areas. On Wednesday, highs will be only normal which for this time of year is mid 50s for PHL and metro areas nearby and upper 40s/low 50s across the NW areas. Overnight lows will be mild too with mostly 40s and 30s NW. Much of the long range will be dry, continuing a dry month for our area. The one exception will be the Wed/Wed night/Thu periods when a stronger low well to the west (IN/IL) sends a few shortwaves/fronts across our region. Going along with the NBM pops and neighboring offices, Likely and some Categorical pops are in the forecast attm. Looking ahead into next weekend, the ridge across the East relaxes a bit, so temperatures will probably be closer to normal. An approaching trough may create the opportunity for some spring showers too. Way too early to be specific. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of tonight...A line of SHRA and TSRA will pass through the I-95 terminals through 02-03Z. Gusts to 40 kt likely in the strongest storms. There is a chance for some SHRA/TSRA at KMIV and KACY from 03Z-04Z, but chances are minimal. Conditions shouldbecome VFR throughout. However, there is the chance for fog development, especially in areas of rain, as lingering low level moisture may result in patchy fog should winds lighten up enough. Winds mainly from the west at 5 to 8 kt, but may be more west-northwest early in the night then more west- southwest later. Moderate confidence. Sunday... Mainly VFR. However, increasing cloud cover is expected, and we will probably see some CIGs of 2000 to 4000 ft develop by afternoon especially from PHL west. Westerly winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt by afternoon and evening, locally a little stronger. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Sun night/Mon/Tue...VFR. W or NW Winds from 5 to 10 knots gusting to 15 knots into the afternoon. Wed/Thu...Mostly VFR but scattered showers may produce MVFR/IFR at times. && .MARINE... Through tonight... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters, with seas around 5 ft expected through the night. Sunday... The SCA has been extended through Sunday for the Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and off the mouth of Delaware Bay. A lull in conditions is possible during the morning, but seas will remain close to 5 ft. By afternoon, westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt will likely develop. The SCA may also need to be extended for the Delaware coastal waters, and one may need to be issued for Delaware Bay due to the wind potential. Those areas should be sub-SCA during the morning, however. Outlook... Sunday night...SCA conditions likely with northwest winds gusting from 25 to 30 knots and seas ranging from 3 to 5 feet. Mon/Tue...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Wed...Sub-SCA conditions expected during the day, then SE winds gusting around 25 knots and seas nearing 5 feet into the overnight. Thu...SCA possible. Showers. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>454. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ455. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...MPS/O`Brien Short Term...Davis/O`Hara Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...O`Brien/O`Hara Marine...O`Brien/O`Hara
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
125 PM PDT Sat Mar 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will linger through the day with mountain snow causing travel impacts to the weekend travelers. Dry with breezy north wind early next week. Unseasonably warm weather by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Northern California radars are in precipitation mode this afternoon with Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. Rain amounts have been rather meager in the Valley with the initial wave of precipitation that pushed through during the morning hours. Some Valley airports that that have reported measurable rainfall through 1 PM PDT include Redding, Red Bluff, and Stockton. Sacramento-area stations have either traced or reported nothing. The higher stratiform cloud bases combined with the drier layer between the surface and cloud bases resulted in the virga for much of the morning hours. For the rest of the day, high-resolution models have indicated the potential for some afternoon convection in the Valley and foothills, with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two. Latest HRRR guidance depicts upward of 100-300 J/kg most unstable CAPE throughout much of the Sacramento Valley. SPC Day 1 guidance was updated earlier today to include the general thunder risk for most of the Central Valley. Any strong showers or isolated thunderstorms that do develop have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours, lightning, small hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Snow showers in the mountains will continue to bring travel- related impacts to motorists in the form of chain controls and travel delays. Motorists are always advised to check with Caltrans for the latest road conditions. Snowfall in the northern Sierra will generally remain on the light side with storm total of 2 to 6 inches above about 5500 ft, with locally higher amounts going up in elevation. Precipitation will diminish overnight with dry and breezy north/east winds expected for Sunday. Wind-related impacts will be limited as the gusts are expected to remain between 20-30 mph in the Valley, and locally stronger gusts for the wind-prone mountain gaps, peaks, canyons, and ridgetops. Heading into the next workweek, ensembles and cluster analysis continue to indicate a rapid day-to-day warming trend region-wide by Tuesday. Expect widespread 80s to be realized with additional warming by Wednesday (see extended for more details). // Rowe && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)... Widespread 80s will continue on Wednesday as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge axis centers over the West Coast. This will boost temperatures to around 15-25 deg F above normal. Some locations in the central/northern Sacramento Valley may flirt with the 90 deg F mark, including Redding, Red Bluff, and Chico. Latest National Blend of Models gives roughly a 20-30% chance of exceeding 90 deg F in the northern Sacramento Valley for Wednesday, March 23. Compared to 1991-2020 climatology, the average first 90 deg F day for these locations is early May. Ridge axis starts to pivot inland on Thursday, resulting in a degree or two of cooling for most locations. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail in the extended through at least next week Saturday. // Rowe && .AVIATION... A Pacific weather system is moving through NorCal, bringing showers, mountain snow, and possibly a few thunderstorms. MVFR conditions possible across the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys through about 00Z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms possible in the Sacramento Valley and Foothills 21Z-02Z with small hail and surface wind gusts 25-35kts in the vicinity. In the Sierra, widespread precipitation with IFR/LIFR conditions continuing thru about 06Z Sunday (snow levels 050-060). Northerly surface wind gusts increase around 15Z Sunday, with 20-30kt gusts in the Valley and up to 40kt gusts in the Sierra. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada- Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$