Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/19/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1022 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather expected this weekend and not as mild.
Widespread showers move through Saturday into Saturday evening,
with a few rumbles of thunder possible. A few isolated showers
possible across the interior on Sunday, but dry and blustery for
most with seasonable temperatures. Breezy with seasonable
temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Next shot for more widespread
precipitation late on Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the overall forecast overnight. Main concern
remains fog potential late tonight, which is still expected as
high dew point air moves north over the relatively cooler ocean.
The presence of a stalled front complicates things. Areas along
the south coast of New England are most likely to get into the
more widespread fog. Will be monitoring for a possible Dense Fog
Advisory overnight.
Otherwise, still expecting a risk for showers to develop after
midnight across the western half of southern New England.
645 PM Update...
No changes in the latest update. Main concern overnight is the
redevelopment of stratus/fog. Still think that the locally dense
fog will be most likely along the coast. Given we`ve had fog
that past two evenings, am highly confident on it developing
again tonight. Just uncertain on the exact timing, but think the
HRRRE and other short term guidance has a decent handle on it.
Due to the timing uncertainty have not hoisted a Dense Fog
Advisory, but will probably be necessary for future updates.
Discussion from 4 PM...
Main issue tonight will be the redevelopment of stratus and fog
which may be locally dense, especially near the coast. The fog bank
is already lurking over Nantucket sound. Higher dewpoint air several
degrees higher than water temps with onshore flow turning SE later
tonight will result in stratus and fog expanding along the coast
this evening and eventually into the interior overnight. Areas of
dense fog are possible and dense fog advisories may eventually be
needed.
Otherwise, lead shortwave ahead of mid level trough to the west will
lift across New York into northern New Eng overnight. While, best
chance of showers will be to the north and west, a few showers are
expected to move into western New Eng late tonight as low level jet
approaches from the west.
Weak backdoor front from northern New Eng drops south and likely
stalls across northern MA tonight with wind shift to NE. S/SE winds
will persist closer to the coast. Temps will fall back into the 40s
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...
Modest low level jet and increasing PWAT plume 1 to 1.25" moves into
SNE with accompanying area of showers lifting NE across the region.
There is some elevated instability developing in the afternoon so
can`t rule out an isolated t-storm with any of the heavier showers.
The CAMs indicate that there may be a lull in the activity in
western New Eng mid/late afternoon as the focus shifts to the east.
Temps will be mildest south of the Pike and especially across CT/RI
and SE MA which will be south of the boundary with southerly winds.
In fact, winds may gust to 20-30 mph near the south coast and
Cape/Islands during the afternoon as the low level jet develops.
Highs should reach well into the 50s to near 60 here. Cooler temps
in northern MA where northerly winds should keep highs closer to 50
near the NH/VT border.
Saturday night...
Fairly robust shortwave from western NY lifts NE into northern NY/VT
in the evening with cold front approaching from the west. Expect a
weakening line of convection approaching western MA/CT in the
evening as activity becomes further removed from best forcing
lifting well to the NW. But will have to monitor these storms as
they move in from the west. Further weakening is expected as the
showers move east across SNE through midnight.
Meanwhile, elevated instability peaks in the evening across the
Cape/Islands within the axis of a 50-60 kt low level jet. MUCAPES
may approach 1000 J/kg so will have to watch any convection around
the Cape Islands as deep layer shear is rather strong and is
supportive of hail if elevated instability is realized. HRRR is most
aggressive with storms moving across Cape/Islands in the 6-8 pm time
frame.
Drying conditions expected overnight behind the front as the column
dries. However, areas of fog will likely persist over the
Cape/Islands through the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
* Isolated showers possible across the interior on Sunday, but dry
for most. Above normal temps across the region and breezy.
* Dry with near to above normal temps persisting for much of Monday
and Tuesday. Gusty winds persist. Cannot completely rule out an
isolated shower or two along the south coast late on Monday into
early Tuesday.
* Next shot for widespread heavier precip possible late on Wednesday
into Thursday. Could have some wintry precip with this, but still
too early for exact details.
Sunday...
A trough will lift from the OH Valley/Carolinas early in the day
into southern New England by the evening and offshore late on
Sunday/early Monday. A ridge axis will build across the Mississippi
River Valley. Low pressure will lift across Quebec/northern New
England further northeastward, however will have a surface trough
extend from the low into southern New England.
Generally expecting dry and quiet weather for most, as high pressure
nudges into the region and WNW/NW downslope flow aids in some drying
out moisture in the lower levels. However, have kept slight chances
of precip across portions of interior MA given the trough lifting in
late in the afternoon. Have a pretty good cold pool associated with
this as 500 hPa temps are in the -25 to -20 degree Celsius range.
This in combination with diurnal heating and decent RH locked in
the low/mid levels should result in isolated rain showers. Elsewhere
think that there will be a good amount of CU given the cold pool
moving in, but moisture will be a bit more limited further S/E.
The only changes made were increasing the temps and wind
speeds/gusts. As previously mentioned have some decent downslope
flow with W/WNW flow at 925 hPa. Speeds up in the level are around
20-30 kts, which will not be too difficult to mix down given the
boundary layer grows to roughly 3-5 kft. Manually bumped up the wind
speeds/gusts a bit given what am seeing in the Bufkit soundings.
Have increased the temps to the 75th percentile of guidance given
the downslope flow. The only potential wrench is the amount of
cloudiness that develops as the trough is lifting in. Think that the
CT/Merrimack Valley could see some low/mid 60 degree readings.
Elsewhere temps will be in the 50s.
Monday through Tuesday...
Ridge axis over the Mississippi River Valley builds into the OH
Valley/central Great Lakes on Monday into Tuesday. More confident in
the amplitude/progression of the ridge today. On the northeast side
of the ridge a shortwave will dig into the eastern Great Lakes late
Monday/early Tuesday. Throughout much of this period high pressure
will build into the region from the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic and
Ontario. The high over the Carolinas will move offshore late
Monday/early Tuesday while the high over Ontario nudges in more on
Tuesday as it builds into Quebec.
Generally expecting dry and quiet weather throughout this period
with high pressure in control. Did increase PoPs to slight chances
across the south coast late on Monday into early Tuesday. A cold
front swings through and appears that there is enough moisture for
an isolated shower or two. May need to expand this slight chance
further north in future updates if the GEPS/GEFS/EPS guidance
continue to indicate there could be some light precip a bit further
inland. Really not expecting any impacts other than breaking up a
period of dry weather.
Most confident on both days featuring near to above normal temps
along with gusty winds. Will have prolonged WNW/NW flow with speeds
of 20-40 kts in roughly the 850 and 925 hPa levels. Given the cooler
air advecting in should see excellent mixing on both days. Do think
that the gustier of the two days will be on Tuesday where there
could be some 25-30 kt gusts during the afternoon. Still breezy on
Monday, but think gusts falling mostly in the 20-25 kt range. Will
have temps in the 50s across the region on Monday. Does cool a bit
in wake of that frontal passage for Tuesday with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s.
Wednesday and Thursday...
Most uncertainty in the forecast lies during this period. Main
change made in the latest update was the slow down the progression
of precip chances on Wednesday from the NBM guidance as it seems too
fast compared to other pieces of ensemble guidance. Have a blocky
ridge/trough pattern in place with a ridge building from the central
Great Lakes early on Wednesday into the eastern Great Lakes/New
England by late in the day. Behind the ridge a cutoff/deep trough
lifts northeastward later on Wednesday into Thursday as the ridge
builds further northeast.
As mentioned, lots of uncertainty through this timeframe. Did hedge
toward the drier end of guidance for much of Wednesday given that
the high over Quebec will still be nudging into southern New England
as this system is deepening over the IA/MO/IL/WI area. Will take a
bit for the drier air to moisten up, and the current PoPs match well
with the timing of GEPS/GEFS/EPS 24 hr measurable QPF. Biggest
uncertainty for late Wednesday is the position of the ridge and its
amplitude based on WPC Cluster analysis. At this point 55/100
ensemble members keep us dry as the ridge is more built up. The
wetter solutions feature a weaker ridge that is a bit further east
along combined with a deeper trough or a more flattened out
trough/ridge. The former (28 members) features heavier precip moving
in quicker, whereas the latter would bring in lighter QPF. Again at
this point have leaned on the drier guidance for Wednesday, so
bumped PoPs back. May need to bring back further in future updates.
Confidence increases in precip chances late on Wednesday through
Thursday. Most uncertainty lies here in the amplitudes of the
trough/ridge and then the position of the trough. All guidance shows
QPF across the region during this window, but just a question of the
exact details. The wetter solutions (60/100 members) essentially
feature a deeper ridge/trough, whereas the drier solutions show a
less amplified trough/ridge. Given it is a 60/40 spread and we are
talking Day 7, have leaned on NBM as things can change. Confidence
highest in at least some precip here, so have kept chance to likely
precip late on Wednesday through much of Thursday. Do have some
uncertainty in the exact track of the frontal system moving through,
but thermal profiles suggest there will be some wintry precip. Still
see some low probabilities of snowfall amounts AOA 1 inch across
portions of the interior late on Wednesday into early Thursday per
the EPS/GEFS/GEPS guidance. Given the track of the system thinking
that any wintry precip should change over to rain as warmer air
surges in, but there is considerable uncertainty in the thermal
profiles. At this point will need to stay tuned until there is more
confidence in how things will evolve.
Lots of uncertainty in this timeframe with regard to timing,
intensity and location of the next trough lifting into the region.
Have stuck with the NBM guidance as models are all over the place at
this point in time. Think that there will be precipitation somewhere
in this window, but hard to pin point down. Have kept chances to
likely PoPs per the NBM through the Wed-Fri timeframe.
Majority of the variance on Thursday is due to the positioning on
the ridge and the amplification of the trough/ridge per WPC cluster
analysis (35 percent variance in the positioning of the ridge and 28
percent on the amplification). Late in the week the uncertainty
falls mostly in the amplification/deamplification of the
ridge/trough. Given the uncertainty have not hedged in any
direction. Will note that there are some low probabilities of
snowfall AOA 1 inch per the GEFS/GEPS guidance for late Wednesday
into Thursday, while the EPS is a warmer solution with no snow probs
AOA 1 inch. Again something to monitor, but still too early to
hammer down the exact details.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence in trends. Moderate on exact timing.
IFR to VLIFR stratus and fog expanding along the coast through
06Z. Will see the stratus/fog spread farther inland after 06Z.
Expecting dense fog especially along the immediate coastline.
Showers developing across western New Eng 09-12Z.
Saturday and Saturday night...Moderate confidence.
IFR to VLIFR conditions with areas of fog and widespread
showers moving across the region during Sat into Sat evening,
then exiting around midnight. Isolated t-storms possible. Have
added a VCTS mention across the Cape/Islands where have a bit
more confidence in the activity late in the afternoon. May need
to be expanded elsewhere if confidence in coverage increases.
Will improve to VFR late Sat night, but areas of IFR/LIFR
persisting Cape/Islands until daybreak. S wind gusts 20-25 kt
developing late Sat/Sat evening Cape/Islands along with areas of
LLWS accompanying low level jet.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Expect stratus and fog
redeveloping tonight with a return to LIFR 04-06Z, but exact
timing uncertain. Expect a period of VLIFR fog near the morning
push.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. LIFR stratus and fog may
redevelop after 06Z.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday through Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up
to 30 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight... Leftover southerly swell will keep seas near 5 ft over
outer southern waters this evening before subsiding overnight.
Variable winds below SCA. Poor vsbys as areas of dense fog develop.
Saturday... Increasing S winds with gusts 25-30 kt developing in the
afternoon as low level jet develops. Building seas. Poor vsbys in
showers and fog. Isolated t-storms possible in the afternoon.
Saturday night... Gusty S winds in the evening becoming SW and
diminishing overnight. 5-8 ft seas over souther waters. Vsbys reduced
in showers and fog and isolated t-storms in the evening.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Isolated rain showers.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Below are the record highs for Today, March 18th:
BOS: 74F (2012)
BDL: 76F - previously 72F (2012)
PVD: 73F (2011)
ORH: 74F (2012)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ231-233-234.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BL
NEAR TERM...Belk/KJC/BL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Belk/KJC/BL
MARINE...Belk/KJC/BL
CLIMATE...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1132 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will pass northwest of New England on
Saturday night, bringing mostly rain to the region. Sunday,
drier conditions arrive on a northwest wind for the start of the
next work week with dry conditions near the coast and snow
showers in the mountains. High pressure passes to the south
through early week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1125 PM Update...
Minor update to account for latest conditions across the forecast
area. Still awaiting fog to develop as moisture continues to
pool in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Eventually, the marine
layer will push onshore, allowing for drizzle to form as well,
mainly in western Maine and much of New Hampshire. Will make
minor adjustments to pops and temperatures for the near term
portion of the forecast.
In terms of temperatures, wind fields have begun to veer to the
northeast at areas such as KWVL, KAUG, KPWM and KRKD. This will
allow for cold air advection overnight across portions of the
region as the precipitation arrives late tonight and Saturday
morning. Nevertheless, current readings are lagging the colder
HRRR and 3 KM Nam solutions, at least for the near term portion
of the forecast. However, a brief period of mixed precipitation
continues for northern areas. Hence, a Winter Weather Advisory
remains in place.
Prev Disc...
Very warm day will wind down this evening as clouds begin to
increase amid moistening mid/low levels. Some radar reflectivity
over northern VT and southern Quebec should remain elevated as
dew depressions are still quite wide.
Will see effects of sfc moisture advection along the coast late
this evening. Onshore breeze has already infiltrated along the
coast, with temps in the 40s along the beach with 60s just a bit
further inland. Expect fog to redevelop late, along with some
drizzle for the NH coast. Satellite imagery depicts a bank of
this low stratus and fog about 26nm off the coast, with a dodge
inland over the last few frames. HREF guidance also brings these
low ceilings back in with some restrictions to visibility.
The main weather maker for the next day or so is still pivoting
over IL, and will slowly track towards New England overnight.
Have trended precip arrival back a few hours, but overall expect
clouds to continue to increase this evening, with light rain
showers arriving after midnight. Will see cool air pushing in at
the surface from the north overnight, and this will be key north
of the mtns and foothills for precip types Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will advance into the Great Lakes Saturday morning,
with rain expanding east along a warm front pushing north.
Cool temperatures at the surface should be at or around freezing
for much of the western mtns and some valley foothills. With
warm air pushing in aloft, expect the chance for some freezing
rain at the cooler spots north of the mtns. The usual CAD
mechanism will help prolong this pool of cold air, and thus
issued a Winter Weather Adv here with the chance for a glaze of
ice. After such a warm day Friday, have limited the area of
coverage to just north of the mountains, especially because the
weak push of cold air has a limited amount of time to advect
in.
With precip shield lifting north, showers will increase in
coverage and intensity through central NH and ME. Expect some
coastal enhancement for QPF and rain rates along the coast, as
well as upslope regions of the mtns. Weak secondary low development
off the ME coast could accentuate these rates further. Max QPF
is forecast to be along the Midcoast.
In addition, did further the mention of thunder chances for the
coast and coastal waters. While there will be a steep low level
inversion, instability aloft is decent with 200 to 700 j/kg of
CAPE during the Sat evening hours. Have restricted this to the
coast and southern NH w/ best lift and instability outlined by
NAM/RAP/NBM.
Showers will being to taper Saturday evening, west to east, with
some mountain showers remaining.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Departing low pressure on Sunday will allow for a return
to drier weather through early next week with just some upslope
showers possible across the north and mountains. Mean shortwave
troughing will persist through early next week, which will help
to keep temperatures near to slightly above normal. Another
storm system may then impact the area late next week with both
rain and snow possible.
Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected
through at least the middle of next week.
Forecast Details: Low pressure will continue to more northeastward
over southern Canada on Sunday as high pressure begins to build to
our west. Any rain across mainly eastern areas will end by mid
morning but upslope showers will continue throughout the day across
the north and mountains. As the system departs it will begin to drag
down colder air from the north and therefore the rain will likely
begin to mix with and change to snow across the mountains and minor
accumulations may result. High temperatures on Sunday will
still be well above average with many locations south of the
mountains once again making a run for the 60 degree mark.
Temperatures on Sunday night will remain mild for March with
most areas staying above the freezing mark.
A cold front will then cross the area on Monday morning but ensemble
and deterministic guidance indicates that this will be fairly
moisture starved. Nevertheless, still expecting a few rain and snow
showers to develop across the north and mountains but given low QPF
any accumulations will be on the light side. Behind this front high
pressure will begin to nose into New England from the west, which
will result in an increasing PGF over the area as low pressure
meanders north of the Canadian Maritimes. This combined with daytime
heating will allow for good mixing to occur and thus expecting
a breezy stretch of weather through Tuesday. Given this setup
went above NBM winds for this portion of the forecast. High
temperatures on Monday will generally be into the 40s and lower
50s south of the mountains with readings on Tuesday about 5-10
degrees cooler. Winds will weaken on Wednesday as high pressure
moves overhead and this will allow for subsidence over the area
which will keep us dry as temperatures rebound a bit.
Forecast confidence then decreases as we approach the end of next
week as uncertainty remains on a storm system that will be moving
through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. While there is
moderate confidence within ensemble solutions that precipitation
will occur with this system across our area there is much lower
confidence in precipitation type and amounts. Taking a look at WPC
cluster analysis 500 mb EOF patterns it can be seen that uncertainty
remains in both the position and timing of a trough that will be
swinging east out of the Ohio river valley, which is impacting
both QPF output as well as temperature profiles. Did go ahead
and delay PoPs compared to NBM during the Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe as NBM was faster than the EPS/GEFS solutions and
forecast soundings indicate that there will be a plethora of dry
air within the low to mid- levels initially.. Over the coming
days these details should begin to become more clear but for now
would expect a return to more unsettled weather during the late
week period along with near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening, with drizzle and fog returning to
coastal TAF sites this evening and overnight. All sites remain
MVFR/IFR with incoming rain and mist Saturday. Some FZRN
possible a KHIE early Sat. LLWS will also be possible Sat
evening at coastal sites.
Long Term...Low pressure will depart to our northeast on Sunday
with improving flight conditions throughout the day from west to
east. Across the north continued SHRA/SHSN due to upslope flow
will result in some flight restrictions. VFR conditions return
early next week but northwest winds will be gusty each day with
gusts up to 30 kts possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions will be met tonight amid onshore
flow w/ increasing wave heights. SE winds will slowly increase
overnight, with gusts to 25 kt Saturday evening as low pressure
passes north of New England.
Long Term...Marginal SCA conditions are possible on both Monday
and Tuesday of next week with offshore flow prevailing.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Most interior rivers are showing a response to melting in
interior watersheds. Due to well above freezing temps and
dewpoints today, snowmelt should be plentiful with SWE loss
even in the lower elevations of the mountains as the snowpack
has ripened. A weak cold front will push south tonight bringing
in cooler near freezing air by Saturday morning. Mixed
precipitation changing to rain is expected on Saturday with more
run-off anticipated across the Whites, than further north in
the Western Maine mountains. The rain and snowmelt could lead to
a few rivers reaching action stage by Sunday. With the
increased CFS flow coming and the warm temperatures, the
remaining river ice could flush out this weekend on many
interior river systems. Ice jam flooding threat still seems to
be limited due to multiple freeze/thaw cycles over the last
month helping to rot and thin the ice in many areas. Even so,
the potential for ice jam flooding over the next 36hrs can`t be
completely ruled out, especially on the Pemi where a previous
jam is still restricting flow near Plymouth, NH. Overall, good
chance for northern river system to flush their ice this
weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
MEZ007>009.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
NHZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
847 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
.EVENING UPDATE...Quiet night with clear skies and cool conditions
but hourly temps have dropped a tad slower than expected. This is
likely due to the strong winds just off the deck still. 00z
sounding still had 20kt of winds at 500ft aand VWP at 01z had 25kt
in the first gate. This will keep things mixed and slow down
radiational cooling as previous forecaster mentioned. Unless these
winds just fall off a cliff temps will just continue to drop
slowly but steadily. If winds find a way to really relax in the LL
we could see temps plummet just before sunrise but that is
looking less likely. Only real adjustment to the forecast was to
fix hourly temps as morning lows still looked good for the most
part however, we did raise a few locations 1 or two degrees. That
said it still looks like lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s
across the region. /CAB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/
SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday Night)...
All severe weather along a pre-frontal trough has drifted east of
the area this afternoon/evening, as we reside between this
departing convection and an approaching cold front from the west.
Winds have remained elevated this afternoon following PBL mixing,
but with the bulk of CAA/drier air residing behind the front, we
were able to warm up nicely this afternoon reaching the lower 80`s
for many. HRRR guidance this afternoon doesn`t develop any shower
or convective activity along this front, with very little
notable sfc frontogenetic and dynamic ascent at play enough to
offset a building strong low-level subsidence inversion. Only
expecting a subtle wind shift later this evening from the
northwest followed by cooling temperatures and drier dewpoints
filtering in.
Winds remain light/occasionally breezy out of the northwest
tonight following the passing front, with probabilistic guidance
really not hinting at winds shutting off with surface high
remaining to our west. Not going to aim too low below blended
guidance tonight as winds should offset maximized radiational
cooling processes regardless of clear skies.
Quite the pleasant weekend ahead as the aforementioned surface
high builds into the area. Some patchy mid-level altocumulus
possible Saturday with a stretch of H5 moisture riding progressive
SW/NE flow ahead of a weak positive-tilt trough. Made minor
adjustments to afternoon dewpoints to account for strong PBL
mixing, with afternoon highs edging between deterministic and 75th
percentile ensemble NBM guidance.
We`ll likely see the coldest morning early Sunday with high
pressure in control helping to promote strong sfc/low-level
radiational cooling. Edging between the deterministic and 25th
percentile ensemble guidance to account for a more plausible
range of temperatures, with emphasis on drainage locations. The
positive-tilt trough passes east of the northern Gulf during the
day on Sunday allowing us to enter into a building ridge pattern
across the Plains, drifting east into the MS valley region with
very little, if any clouds around (other than some patchy upper-
level cirrus). Highs a few degrees warmer overall with the same
bias towards warmer ensemble guidance. KLG
LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Starting out early next week, a strong, amplifying longwave
trough axis building into the intermountan west, which will be
the focus for the next developing major storm system. NAM/GFS
guidance/trends illustrate plenty of very strong deep upstream
vorticity all the way into northern Mexico, eventually causing the
axis tip to become negative tilt and close off while the base
axis splits over the northern Rockies. This in turn leads to two
developing surface lows, one over the northern Plains and the
other over west Texas. Meanwhile for us during the day on Monday,
we begin to see deep-moist return flow building into the southern
Plains. Origination source of the pull of deepest moisture is
well far southwest into the Bay of Campeche with a pool of 70
degree dewpoints that never gets "swept out" by this front passing
this evening, and is a big consideration into the degree of sfc
to low- level moisture advection magnitude ahead of the developing
low. Convection ignites across the southern Plains on Monday
given strong developing dynamic ascent and building deep-layer
moisture/instability. Meanwhile, we begin to transition into a
developing veering sfc to low-level wind profile given noticeable
expansion in low-level curvature per forecast hodographs. Moisture
will slowly rebuild back into the area with time, all underneath
partly to mostly cloudy skies. From here, it becomes a bit unclear
if convection could potentially organize or develop into an
eastward-surging MCS into the lower MS valley region late
Monday/Monday night and greater confidence will come when CAM
guidance reaches this time frame. It is possible some of this
activity could breach our western or northwestern CWA, but am not
100% sold on this unless cold-pool propagation could overtake
extending convection more eastward. Just depends on convective
mode potential for now.
Regardless, this closed upper-low does not move much centered
right in the central US helping to strongly occlude the southern
surface low. The speed of the low not moving much, helping to
continuously promote strong sfc to low-level moisture advection
originating from the deep/moisture-rich source mentioned earlier
means we will have no problem spreading lower 70 degree Td`s all
across the area, north into central MS. Any residual convection
that drifts into our area will either dissipate or drift north
late Monday/early Tuesday with most of the area starting off on
the dry side other than some light, shallow coastal showers. Low-
level ridging anchored offshore coastal Atlantic FL does
illustrate some drying in the 850-700mb layer being drug north
from the western Gulf, which could be an early indication at a
subsidence/capping inversion which supports the idea at a mainly
drier morning, but GFS soundings strongly illustrate deep-moist
ascent eroding the cap with time, with convection igniting along
the front just to our west around midday Tuesday. Widespread
MLCAPE in the 1500-2000J/kg range combined with a re-developing
50kt+ 850 jet will support developing convection, likely in the
form of a QLCS with some embedded cells/supercells. H5
temperatures in the -12 to -14C range and mid-level lapse rates
around 7 to 7.5C/km will support large hail, with damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes a risk as well. As with every system, this
one holds challenges that may require close monitoring, especially
as we get closer into this weekend. One item specifically; How
long will the developing 50kt+ 850 jet reside in our area before
drifting north, which would eventually lead to diminishing low-
level winds as surface winds begin to clock more out of the SSW,
reducing the tornado threat towards the east. Hard to say, and
very hard to nail specifics this far in advance, and the latest
SPC Day 5 Convective Outlook introduces a 30% probability area
very much in the one area with greatest deep-layer
shear/instability overlap all within peak diurnal heating. 12Z GFS
soundings for KMCB for 18Z TUE, putting it lightly, is rather
extreme and support the potential for significant tornadoes,
extending north into central MS. This would be a system that will
require close attention, as inhibiting factors we`ve seen from
previous events (lack of deeper moisture return, whether cells
will be elevated or not and where greatest dynamics would line up
with convection) does not appear to be a major concern with this
one. The only question remains the eastward and southern extent
if/where low-level jet dynamics is greatest. But above all, will
continue to closely monitor.
The line of showers/storms along the cold front continues to
parade east late Tuesday thru early Wednesday, likely weakening
with time with the front racing through to follow. Wednesday is
looking breezy and slightly cooler. Meanwhile aloft, the overall
mid-level pattern gets rather complicated as this same upper-low
drifting northeast becomes absorbed into a southern Canada
shortwave, leaving lingering energy holding back into the four
corners region. Northerly flow will support weak shortwave
impulse riding south over the Rockies to kick this energy east,
closing off within developing zonal flow to the north. This in
turn could possibly place an upper-low somewhere over the
southeastern US late week into next weekend, but many doubts
remain this far in advance how this would impact our area, if at
all. KLG
AVIATION (18Z TAF DISCUSSION)...
All rain and storms have departed the area to the east, with
gusty westerly surface winds continuing across all terminals.
Patchy low clouds remain, mainly across eastern areas, but will
continue to clear out through the afternoon and evening hours with
VFR prevailing. A dry cold front is expected to pass through the
area later this evening into early tonight, with the main impacts
being a wind shift from the northwest and remaining breezy with
VFR continuing into early Saturday for all terminals. KLG
MARINE...
A passing cold front this evening/early tonight will re-introduce
gusty northwesterly winds. Small Craft Advisories are hoisted back
into effect to account for wind gusts upwards of 20-25kt with
building wave/seas reaching 5 to 7ft, latter for 20-60nm zones
south of the MS. High pressure builds in this weekend with
calm/clear conditions. This high will shift east early next week
with deep, southeasterly Gulf fetch helping to increase winds with
wave/seas to follow. Next major storm system expected Tuesday and
into early Wednesday with another strong front swinging through
which will be followed by gusty northwesterly winds following into
late-week. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 81 45 69 40 / 60 0 0 0
BTR 82 46 70 41 / 40 0 0 0
ASD 83 48 71 41 / 80 0 0 0
MSY 83 54 68 48 / 70 0 0 0
GPT 82 51 70 43 / 80 0 0 0
PQL 80 49 72 41 / 90 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday
for GMZ530-534.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday
for GMZ534.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1006 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens this evening as a frontal system
approaches from the west. The associated warm front lifts over
the area Saturday morning and afternoon, followed by a cold
front Saturday night. A broad area of high pressure will then
build in through the middle of next week. Low pressure may
impact the area for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Fog and low stratus are continuing to slowly move into the area
from the south with much of Long Island seeing reduced
visibilities. This should gradually spread northward into the
overnight, perhaps a bit slower than initially anticipated.
Other than that, this update accounts for the latest
observations of temperature and dew points.
The main concern overnight revolves around how much fog will
return across coastal CT, and whether or not it expands inland.
There is a chance that it will end up being more stratus over
land, especially as the night moves along. The fog bank along
and just off the Long Island coast has diminished somewhat
earlier this afternoon. However, concerned that it will start to
expand northward overnight as the boundary layer cools. The
HRRR has been consistent on showing fog overspreading at least
coastal sections, but could also expand well inland as well.
Some factors that could play against dense fog include
increasing middle and high level clouds and increasing low level
flow, especially tonight. Have held off on a dense fog
advisory, but will issue an SPS to highlight potential for areas
of dense fog this evening.
Otherwise, ridge axis both at the surface and aloft weakens
this evening ahead of a southern stream shortwave that is
lifting towards the Ohio Valley. Warm advection and increasing
low level flow will increase through the night. Low clouds are
likely and as mentioned above, areas of fog are possible. Low
pressure associated with the shortwave will send a warm front
towards the area early Saturday morning. A few showers may
develop as the forcing increases, especially towards day break.
Lows will likely be in the 40s for the eastern two thirds of the
area, with lower 50s in the NYC and urban NE NJ corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will slowly lift across the region on Saturday.
Confidence is not high that the boundary will fully lift
north of the area, and it is possible it becomes stationary
over or just south of the region. Parent low pressure will move
across the Great Lakes through the day and the surface flow may
end up a bit more SE than S. The marine influence in the low
levels will help slow down the warm front progression and also
keep conditions more stable over the region.
Warm advection and some shortwave energy will lead to showers
in the morning and early afternoon. This activity should
diminish in coverage by middle to late afternoon. Forecast
soundings do show limited elevated CAPE in the morning and a
rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out.
The trailing cold front will then approach in the evening
and move across at night. Forecast soundings indicate more
elevated instability in the evening and have continued to show a
slight chance of thunder. High resolution guidance hinting at a
broken line of showers along and ahead of the cold front. They
do agree the line will weaken as it encounters the more stable
low level air and maritime influence. SPC has highlighted a
portion of Orange County in a Marginal risk, with a general
outlook elsewhere. Even in Orange county low level profiles are
inverted, so the severe threat there is very limited. The cold
front should be moving offshore around midnight, bringing an end
to the chance of showers and rumbles of thunder.
Average rainfall for this evening looks to be around a half
inch. Locally higher amounts are possible in any heavier
downpours, but no flooding concerns given the quick movement of
the activity.
Temperatures on Saturday should stay in the 50s across much
of the area, but could see some low 60s in the NYC metro. Lows
Saturday night look to be in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models were in fairly good agreement thru the extended, so
the NBM was generally followed.
Mainly dry wx Sun-Tue. The NBM is dry. There is wave invof
the polar front that comes thru in the ECMWF and GFS Mon ngt
that could put down a stripe of pcpn across the area. Decided
for now to hold off on going abv the NBM with the ECMWF trending
drier with the feature.
Despite the colder airmass Mon and Tue, high temps several
degrees abv climo with good mixing.
Low pres emerging from the Rockies on Mon reaches the local
area around Thu. This is progged to produce some rain across
the CWA. Mainly dry Wed before the sys, then again on Fri behind
the sys. Still some timing concerns this far out, so pops are
not completely dry Wed and Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure continues to retreat offshore, while a
frontal system approaches from the west. The associated warm
front approaches from the south tonight and moves through the
area on Saturday, with the cold front approaching Saturday
evening.
Conditions along the immediate coast have fluctuated a bit as
low stratus tries to make its way onshore. Despite the slow
start, conditions are still anticipated to drop into the
overnight for most terminals. Low stratus and fog over the ocean
is expected to make its way onshore through 6Z allowing
conditions to drop to IFR/LIFR for much of the area. Some
improvement is expected Saturday morning as showers move across
the region and mix up the lower levels but mainly IFR conditions
are expected to continue through much of the day Saturday. An
isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question, especially
toward the evening, but confidence is low at this time.
Winds will be generally out of the SE less than 10kt but may
become briefly variable overnight. Winds then veer gradually on
Saturday as the warm front lifts through the area. There is a
chance of LLWS for the easternmost terminals (KISP, KGON) during
the afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely for the timing of lowering ceilings/vsbys
overnight to IFR/LIFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night...IFR initially becoming VFR behind a cold
frontal passage.
.Sunday and Monday...VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20kt.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Main concern on the waters through tonight is with dense fog.
The dense fog advisory on the ocean and south shore bays
remains in effect through tonight and goes into effect on the
Harbor, LI Sound, and eastern LI Bays at 7pm tonight. The fog
bank has diminished in coverage somewhat, but the expectation is
it will expand northward this evening.
Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels tonight.
There could be some seas to around 5 ft well offshore east of
Moriches Inlet, but it looks marginal. Winds and seas then increase
on Saturday to SCA levels. An SCA has been issued on the ocean
starting at 8 am and goes through 6 am Sunday. Winds on the LI Sound
Winds and seas on the non-ocean waters should remain below SCA
levels on Saturday and Saturday night.
A sca will likely be needed on Sun for all waters with gusty with
gusty wly flow. The sca may be needed on the ocean for Mon, and
perhaps again on Tue with mrgnl nwly winds and seas. All waters blw
sca lvls on Wed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
An average of about a half inch of rain is forecast on Saturday.
Locally higher amounts are possible in any heavier downpours. No
hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS/MW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
848 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front crosses our region late tonight and Saturday morning as
low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. An associated cold
front then moves through late Saturday afternoon or early evening.
High pressure builds in Sunday night into Tuesday, although a weak
cold front moves through late Monday. Low pressure is forecast to
arrive later Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast mostly on track this evening. Widespread fog lies over
the ocean, and should spread west inland as the evening
progresses. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for coastal New
Jersey and coastal Delaware, but confidence is a bit low to
warrant issuing one at this time.
18Z/18 NAM and latest HRRR have an area of showers passing
through the northern zones sometime after midnight through prior
to daybreak as a warm front lifts north through the region.
After the showers end, there lingering low level moisture will
result in patchy fog. It is possible for fog to lower to Dense
Fog Advisory levels of 1/4 mile or less, but confidence is low.
Otherwise, with increasing low level moisture over the area,
patchy fog is likely to develop throughout the region.
With the clouds and increasing moisture, low temperatures will
be well above average for this time of year, in the low to mid
50s.
An unsettled day is expected Saturday with a couple of things to
watch. Occluding low pressure will steadily track northeastward
through the central Great Lakes during the day. The warm front will
continue pushing into our region during the morning hours. As usual,
it will be a struggle for the warm front to push through. It will
eventually get through most or all of the region, but may take until
well into the afternoon up north. Along and ahead of it, low clouds,
patchy fog, and scattered showers will remain possible for most of
the morning.
Heading into the afternoon, there should see breaks in the
clouds, especially to the south. Temperatures will be tricky on
Saturday. Fairly strong warm advection develops aloft behind
the warm front. Winds at the surface will increase and turn more
southwesterly in the afternoon as the region gets into the warm
sector. As the sun starts to break out, it should turn into a
mild day with many places rising into the 70s. If the area
clears out a little sooner, the southern half of the region,
away from the coast, has a shot to make a run at 80, but not
willing to go that far in the forecast due to cloud cover
concerns.
There remains a threat of severe weather on Saturday, though
the setup looks quite a bit different than it did yesterday. For
southern portions of the area like Delmarva and southern New
Jersey, it appears increasingly unlikely that there will be
sufficient forcing to overcome a significant amount of dry air
aloft. Convection will likely attempt but fail to initiate, with
an isolated shower or storm possible but updrafts quickly
getting choked off by dry air. Instead, we are now more focused
on portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.
Guidance has trended towards a much stronger mid-level shortwave
tracking just northwest of us by Saturday afternoon or evening.
Lift from this shortwave and a prefrontal surface trough are
likely to yield convective development over east-central PA
during the afternoon, propagating east-northeast towards
northern NJ. Some of these storms could become strong to severe.
Regarding hazards, expect damaging winds to be the main threat
given very strong mid-level flow, and dry air aloft to aid in
momentum transport via evaporation/DCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates
still look better than normal, which could contribute to a hail
threat. Not expecting anything crazy due to modest SB CAPE
(around 1000 J/kg), but expect there will be a number of small
hail reports and possibly some marginally severe ones. The
tornado threat is not quite zero, but seems low. With strong
forcing and very strong but unidirectional shear, think any
discrete cells would rapidly grow upscale, and QLCS tornado
potential (if a QLCS develops) looks limited due to boundary
parallel shear vectors. Overall, this is definitely not looking
like a widespread severe outbreak, but is the first
"traditional" warm season convective setup that has developed this
year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front associated with the Great Lakes low will move
through overnight, with dry weather behind it. The front itself
is unlikely to trigger any convection. Overnight lows are
forecast to fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. Think westerly
winds will stay up just enough behind the front to prevent
another round of fog, but can`t totally rule it out if winds end
up lighter.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...Temperatures generally near to above average with a main
system moving through later Wednesday and Thursday.
Synoptic Overview...No major changes to the long term forecast with
this update. The large scale upper-level pattern becomes less
progressive through the week, with a ridge building over the East
and a slow moving longwave trough over the central portions of the
country. As this trough slowly advances eastward, a storm system
looks to arrive in the later Wednesday and Thursday timeframe.
For Sunday...A transition day as Saturday`s system pulls away and
high pressure begins to build to our southwest. Deeper mixing
develops and a notable breeze is expected with wind gusts up to 30
mph. There is not a lot of cold air behind the cold front, however a
moisture layer should result in stratocumulus across much of the
area for a while. Despite the cloud cover, downsloping flow should
result in temperatures above average (in the 50s and low 60s).
Overnight lows Sunday night are forecast in the mid/upper 30s to low
40s, though could end up cooler if the boundary layer fully
decouples and as the sky becomes mostly clear.
For Monday and Tuesday...High pressure over the Southeast should
provide mainly dry and mild conditions. Plenty of sunshine Monday
and a steady westerly breeze will lead to good mixing and
temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s. A cold front looks to
move through late Monday as Canadian high pressure presses
southeastward. This front looks to move through dry. Tuesday is a
little more uncertain as the front should stall to our south. If the
strong subsidence with the eastern Canadian high is less this far
south, then more cloudiness will occur across much of our area. For
now, maintained a dry forecast but continued with more cloud cover
and hold temperatures at least few degrees below Monday`s values.
For Wednesday and Thursday...Guidance indicates a large storm system
develops over the center part of the country and slowly pushes east,
with an increasing chance for precipitation in our area by late
Wednesday and Thursday. However, high pressure pushing south out of
Canada may try to delay the arrival of it. For this reason think NBM
may be a bit fast and we maintained continuity with previous
forecast which delays the arrival of the precip until late day
Thursday into Thursday night. The high to the north will also
draw cooler and drier air into the region and potentially even
introduce wintry precipitation types mainly across portions of
the northern areas. This is a result of an overrunning setup
with colder air lurking to the north. Given the uncertainty, did
not make any significant changes.
Friday...A lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this lead time as
the GFS builds in high pressure into the area behind Thursday`s
system while the EC fractures the upper trough associated with the
system. This brings another piece of upper level energy through
Friday bringing more showers. Given the uncertainty we stayed with
NBM guidance which depicts slight chance POPs across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight (00Z through 12Z)...Overall, a low confidence forecast
throughout. VFR initially. Fog and stratus will spread west into
KACY and MIV early with LIFR and VLIFR conditions likely.
Otherwise, an area of showers spreads through the other
terminals sometime after 05Z through 12Z or so. Once the showers
end, fog and stratus with IFR/LIFR conditions will develop late
and through daybreak. Light SE winds.
Saturday (12Z through 00Z)...Mainly IFR, locally lower, in the
morning with fog, low clouds, and showers. Slow improvement to
MVFR/VFR from south to north is likely during the late morning
and early afternoon hours. An area of SHRA and TSRA may affect
most terminals except for KMIV/KACY from 20Z through 00Z with
gusty winds and hail possible. LGT/VRB winds in the morning,
becoming S 5 to 10 kt, then SW 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt
gusts late. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night... A lingering shower or tstm is possible mainly
north of PHL through about 02z. Otherwise, VFR. Winds shifting from
southwest to west at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Sunday...VFR. West-northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25
knots, diminishing to 5-10 knots at night. High confidence.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 knots.
Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR through at least the first part of the day
with a system arriving late day into Wednesday night bringing
possible restrictions. Winds becoming east/southeast around 10
knots. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight... A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the
Atlantic coastal waters. Reduced visibilities are expected to
continue through the night. The Advisory does not currently include
Delaware Bay, but fog development is possible there also. Otherwise,
sub-SCA conditions are expected with southerly winds 10 to 15 kt and
seas 3 to 4 ft.
Saturday-Saturday night... Fog should gradually diminish on Saturday
morning or early afternoon. SCA conditions are expected to develop.
Seas building to 4 to 6 ft for late Saturday morning through the
night. Southerly winds turning more southwesterly and increasing to
15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, before gradually decreasing
and becoming more westerly overnight. Rain showers possible.
Outlook...
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely due to wind gusts to
25 knots and elevated seas.
Monday and Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Wednesday...Winds/seas start to increase ahead of the next system
with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible beginning late day or
at night.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
Near Term...MPS/O`Brien
Short Term...O`Brien
Long Term...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/MPS/O`Brien
Marine...Fitzsimmons/O`Brien