Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/17/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
935 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022
High pressure centered offshore of the Mid Atlantic will
continue to influence the region through Thursday. A cold front
will approach from the northwest Thursday night with low
pressure tracking up the front into the lower Great Lakes late
Friday while slowly exiting Saturday and Saturday night. High
pressure returns Sunday into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
Beautiful afternoon out there as mid/upper ridging builds across
the central and eastern CONUS in advance of a mid/upper trough
moving through the Rockies. 1028 mb surface high pressure offshore
of the Mid Atlantic is leading to southerly winds and warm air
advection across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes with 65-70 F
temps common away from Lake Erie. A warm front is lifting northward
across Michigan in response to all of this, but it has struggled to
move off of the eastern basin of Lake Erie due to the cold marine
layer. This led to fog over the lake and ENE flow near the lakeshore
of far NE Ohio and NW PA most of the day, but the fog is now
dissipating nicely and the flow is turning more southerly thanks to
the boundary finally edging northward off of the eastern basin.
However, we still have a weak surface pressure gradient, so a more
traditional lake breeze has set up near the lakeshore from downtown
Cleveland eastward this afternoon dropping temps back into the 40s
and 50s as of 3 PM. This lake breeze circulation should begin to
dissipate after 22Z allowing the warmer inland air to get back to
the lakeshore communities for the mid to late evening.
For tonight and Thursday, mid/upper subtropical ridging will remain
in control across the eastern CONUS while the surface high slides
further east across the Atlantic. The aforementioned mid/upper
trough over the Rockies will progress into the central and southern
Plains Thursday with surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of KS and
OK. Warm air advection will further strengthen ahead of this system,
so see no reason why highs Thursday will not be at least as warm as
today, or slightly warmer despite gradually increasing clouds. H85
temps around 6-8 C and decent mixing will support upper 60s to low
70s for highs Thursday, so went several degrees above NBM guidance.
RAP and HREF guidance shows another afternoon lake breeze
circulation beginning after 17Z, and this is very reasonable given a
continued weak pressure gradient, so put in a tight temperature
gradient within 3 miles of the lakeshore, especially east of
Cleveland up the shoreline to Erie, PA. The lake breeze will likely
drop temps into the 40s and 50s through early evening again.
By Thursday night, the Plains shortwave trough will begin to phase
with northern stream energy as it lifts across the MS Valley
supporting the surface low lifting across Missouri while deepening.
The cold front tied to the northern stream trough will sag SE
through Michigan through the night approaching NW Ohio and the
lakeshore of NE Ohio and NW PA by 12Z Friday, but model consensus
continues to slow its SE progression due to a stronger trend in the
aforementioned surface low tracking up the front. For this
reason, opted to keep most of the night dry with scattered
showers not reaching NW Ohio until toward sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The big story for the short term will be the upper level vort max
and accompanying surface low pressure system heading toward the
region. Low pressure develops over the southern Plains late Thursday
into early Friday and moves northeast into our area. Models bring
the center of the surface low over the CWA by Saturday morning. It
looks today like there is better agreement across models with
precipitation onset, but the Euro and Canadian look to have a
generally slower exit of this system which may lead to some
The SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook has our southern counties just
clipped by a marginal threat (Level 1/5) for severe weather on
Friday evening into the overnight. There looks to be slight
instability with lapse rates trending upwards overnight Friday.
Dewpoints across the area have decreased slightly since past
forecast, but dewpoints in the southern parts of our CWA remain in
the low 50s overnight Friday. Upper level divergence and surface
ascent may help bring in the potential for a rumble of thunder or
thundershower to occur over our area. Given that, we have a slight
chance of thunder across our region Friday night into Saturday
morning. Precipitation totals are manageable with ensembles keeping
QPF amounts for this system less than an inch across the CWA. This
should keep any hydrological concerns for flooding minimal.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is the potential for some lingering showers early Sunday
morning into the afternoon before high pressure moves in from the
south. High pressure will stick around through Monday ahead of the
next system which approaches towards mid week. We look to have
another round of precipitation at some point in the first half of
next week. At this time, models are still in disagreement on timing
of precipitation onset and departure Tuesday into Wednesday, but
this is looking to be a mostly rain event. At this point the GFS has
a trough in the eastern CONUS exiting faster than the European and
the Canadian models which would allow for precipitation to begin a
bit quicker with the GFS solution. At this time, kept POPs likely or
less for the system next week given the uncertainty in long range
models. Temperatures for the long term are on track to remain warm
and above average for this time of year. After the precipitation
moves out on Sunday, high pressure will lead to dry and clearing
conditions. Depending on if a cold front swings far enough south on
Monday, temperatures may trend cooler than what is in the current
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period, with generally southerly
(occasionally southeasterly/southwesterly) winds under 10 knots
expected. A lake breeze will likely develop on Thursday
afternoon. This may produce northerly winds at KERI/KCLE for a
few hours, best chance at KERI.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with widespread rain showers
Friday through Saturday night. The rain may mix with or change
to wet snow Saturday night.
Easterly winds at 5 to 10 knots will shift and become southeasterly.
These southwesterly winds will shift again and become generally
northerly by Friday morning ahead of the next low pressure system.
As the next system come in, winds shift and become out of the
southwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots over the lake by Saturday
evening. Winds will remain easterly but decrease by Sunday evening
to 5 to 110 knots. Northerly winds return by late Monday remaining
at 5 to 10 knots.
During the period of higher winds late Friday, waves will increase
across the lake ranging between 3 and 5 feet. Conditions will
continued to be observed to see if there remains the potential for
small craft conditions late Friday into early Saturday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
-- Low probability, high impact snow possible Thursday
-- Returning to warmer conditions over the weekend into next week
-- Rain chances return later Monday/Tuesday
Details: A most challenging mid-March forecast in the short term as
models continue to trend/stay steady with the northwestward shift
with QPF and chances of precipitation. Before then, it has been a
fantastic weather day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures
peaking about 20 degrees above normal. Elevated fire weather
conditions have not materialized as widespread with several
locations with relative humidity falling to or below 25%, but winds
generally gusting around or under 30 mph. Still, GOES-East shortwave
IR and derived fire temperature show hot spots likely from
prescribed and planned burns today.
Clouds are starting to press into Iowa as a cold front, trailing
from a shortwave trough/surface low pressure cross the Canadian
prairies, moves into the state. This front will stall south of the
state tonight and help to focus rain chances on Thursday. These
chances will develop ahead of a shortwave trough moving from the
central Rockies Thursday to the western Great Lakes Friday night
with low level thermal lift increasing through the day Thursday.
This will produce chances for rain over central into southern Iowa
during the day. After this is where things become interesting and
there is divergence in the models regarding boundary layer and low
level warmth and thus precipitation type. On the warmer/less snowy
side, the 15z RAP and 12z/18z HRRR soundings show the boundary layer
remaining too warm and yielding just a chilly rain at DSM, OTM, LWD,
and CSQ. Conversely on the cold/snowier model side, the GFS/NAM
soundings and to some degree the 00z ECMWF ensemble sounding at DSM
and OTM shows a colder boundary layer developing late Thursday
evening into Friday with temperatures at the surface right around
freezing. Further, the profile is near isothermal in the low levels
in the lesser known dendritic growth zone (DGZ) just below freezing
between -1 and -3C. While the GFS QPF and snow ratios are too high
and above the 95th percentile of its own ensemble (!), both the GFS
and NAM paint a band of moderate snow accumulations from southwest
Iowa through the Des Moines/Ames area up into northeastern Iowa.
Examining cross sections from southeast to northwest across the
state, the NAM shows not as much moisture in the upper levels while
the GFS is juiced throughout. Both show strong lift developing
within the DGZ with frontogenesis maxing out in the 925-850 and 850-
700mb layers. It is impressive to see the NAM and GFS continuing to
be dynamically cooled through the day Friday to maintain snowfall
per BUFKIT soundings regardless of whether that is correct or not.
However, cross sections also show there will be dry air trying to
undercut the precipitation from the north. This will lead to a sharp
cutoff in the north/northwestward extent of the precipitation.
Looking at probabilities of greater than 1" of snowfall, both the
GFS and the ECMWF ensemble means shows a similar path with
probabilities topping out generally between 20 and 50%. There are
also low probabilities (~<20%) of greater than 3" in both of these.
With this changeover occurring at night and the strong forcing,
could see a period of accumulating snowfall in a narrow band.
Current forecast is showing a swath of snow of around or less than
an inch along an axis from southwest to northeast in the state.
Confidence is low in this period given the differences in thermal
profiles. If it ends up being warmer (e.g. RAP/HRRR runs), then a
mainly rain event with possibly little accumulation on elevated or
grassy/vegetated surfaces may occur to no accumulation at all. If
the colder solutions (e.g. NAM/GFS) pan out, the amounts currently
forecast would be too widespread and underdone wherever the band
sets up with possible high impacts to the Friday morning commute.
While road temperatures are well above freezing today and tomorrow,
we have seen snow rates overcome warm pavement temperatures to
accumulate before in March. Snow ratios will be below 10:1 making
this a wet snowfall, whatever does fall.
As the trough pulls away to the east on Friday night, ridging will
begin to build back into the region. This will yield warmer
conditions on Saturday and more so on Sunday, which will be similar
to temperatures today/Wednesday. A new longwave trough will enter
the western US on Sunday and dig deep into the Southwestern
US/northwestern Mexico. This will allow for moisture return back
toward the state with rain chances increasing later Monday into
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Main concern is the extent of MVFR and lower cigs aft 12z across
the region. Hires models have cold front sweeping south lowering
cigs to MVFR/IFR over northern into central Iowa. Otherwise
increasing moisture will cause some -shra in the south and have
continued VCSH for low chance category. Will monitor trends in
cigs over MN this evening and update timing of any MVFR/IFR north
into central with 06z package. /rev
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1010 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front moving east across Minnesota early this afternoon. A band of
light precip exists along and behind the front, which is moving
into far northwest Wisconsin. This band of light precip will be
running into a dry airmass below 800 mb over north-central
Wisconsin later this afternoon and most meso models dissipate the
precip before reaching Vilas county. While that remains possible,
added a chance of sprinkles prior to 00z north of Tomahawk and
Merrill. Light rain chances and cloud trends are the focus in this
part of the forecast.
Tonight...The cold front will move across northern Wisconsin this
evening and exit the Lake Michigan shoreline early overnight.
Mid-level lapse rates will remain modest up to 6.5 C/km and
shortwave energy will be lifting across Lake Superior during the
evening hours. While the band of precip should weaken as it moves
east, perhaps the right rear quad of a jet streak will be enough
for sprinkles to persist across far northern WI this evening and
left a chance in the forecast. Otherwise, plenty of alto-stratus
and winds of 5-6 kts should keep temps slightly above the NBM.
Lows ranging from the low 30s to low 40s.
Thursday...Some guidance shows a surge of low stratus across
north-central WI on early Thursday morning. Combined with ample
cirrus overhead, skies may start out on the mostly cloudy side
through midday. Partial clearing is possible in the afternoon as
the low clouds mix out. Temps will fall back several degrees with
highs ranging from the low 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
The main focus of the extended period will be the passing low
pressure system Friday night through Saturday morning.
Thursday night through Saturday...This will be the main period to
watch for active weather in the extended period. An upper trough
will lift northeastwards from the Central Plains bringing a fairly
vigorous low pressure system to the Great Lakes region. Models
still differ on the exact track, but most have agreed to a more
northerly track with the low passing over Illinois/Indiana Friday
night through Saturday. Precipitation could start as early as
Friday morning, as moisture and preceding warm air get some lift
from the right rear quad of a departing jet, but the better
precipitation chances likely won`t arrive until Friday evening.
Given the gradual agreement in the models, increased pops for
Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. That said, still
suspect the snow totals are quite overdone by the GFS, as
soundings and surface temps would likely favor a heavier wet snow
with melting during the day, which would reduce accumulations.
Daytime highs on Friday may also be a large player, as an early
onset of precip would keep things cooler and possibly increase
snow later in the day. The last player in this is still the track
itself as well, which will affect the northern and westerly extent
of both the areas that see any precip and those that see the
heaviest precip. Thus, cautiously trended up qpf and snow for the
region for this forecast, but expect additional changes to be
likely with subsequent forecasts.
Rest of the forecast...High pressure will follow this system to
round out the weekend with dry conditions. Return flow will bring
another round of above normal temperatures, with highs in the 50s
both Sunday and Monday. A few could even see 60 on Sunday. Then
temperatures begin to cool again next week as the next weather
maker heads towards the region, arriving sometime near the middle
of the week.
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
A cold front will move through eastern WI overnight, accompanied
by a band of mid-level clouds. A secondary cold front will bring
some MVFR/localized IFR ceilings to north central and parts of
central WI late tonight into Thursday morning, but the low ceilings
should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Farther east, mid and high
clouds should prevail, though SCT cumulus may develop in the
afternoon. Light southwest winds will turn northwest after the
cold front moves through, then become northerly in the late
afternoon and evening. Ceilings may drop back to MVFR in north
central WI Thursday evening.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
933 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Low pressure to our southwest will spread clouds and rain across the
Carolinas tonight, and rain chances will diminish Thursday as the
low moves away and weak high pressure moves across on Friday.
Showers will again become possible Friday night ahead an approaching
cold front. This front will move offshore Saturday night, with dry
weather expected through Tuesday. A cold front well to the west will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on
Update at 930 PM. It looks like a victory for the previously
mentioned two areas of convection as the inland area is moving
out while the coastal activity, although mostly off the coast
is cruising by. Some showers and thunderstorms now developing
with the actual upper low itself in Georgia and South Carolina
but even with some lightning popping up cloud tops are much more
muted than previous activity. Long story short only light
showers and or drizzle for a few hours before filling in later
with the upper low activity. Once again with surface layer
stable, speed and directional shear very weak and low capes in
the minus 10 to minus 30 level, the severe threat is all but
Water vapor imagery shows various intrusions of dry mid level
air which is distorting qpf fields. The western part of the CWA
has had light to moderate rain for hours with even a
thunderstorm or two. This appears to be more mid level forcing
such as diffluence aloft and lightning. The central part of the
CWA has had little activity while coastal areas are getting
some light rain with lower level forcing with a front in place.
Guidance is two camps for the remainder of the overnight hours
with areas consolidating an eventually giving all of the area a
decent rainfall event. The higher resolution guidance shows the
current pattern in place with perhaps an uptick in coastal
coverage while all precipitation coming to an end Thursday
morning via the even wider swath of mid layer dry air. I
generally opted for the second scenario per the latest
satellite and radar trends. Finally with the loss of daytime any
severe threat has all but dissipated.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows a parent surface low pressure near the
southern portions of the AL/GA border. A warm front extends to the
east of this low, and has been moving northward over the last few
hours. More of the area is in the warm sector now, with the warm
front now roughly located along and north of a line from Florence,
SC to Elizabethtown, NC. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in
Norman, OK currently has most of our area in a Marginal Risk (threat
level 1/5) for severe weather through late tonight, along with a
Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) along the southernmost portions of
Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties in SC. Through most of the
area, damaging winds and hail appear to be the primary concerns
(both at a 5% risk). The exceptions appear to be along the Slight
Risk boundary, where hail (15% risk) and tornadoes (2% risk) become
the bigger threats.
As the warm front has risen over the last few hours, we`re starting
to see an increase in MLCAPE (by about 100 J/kg or so). Trends
suggest MLCAPE will continue to increase to upwards of 500-750 J/kg
tonight along the southern portions of the forecast area. Bulk speed
shear values, though they may not eclipse 60kts, create an
impressive gradient this evening, as the parent surface low moves to
the ENE, dragging the warm front with it. The problem is figuring
out where exactly the low tracks. Most guidance agrees the low
crosses crosses southern Georgia this evening, but solutions diverge
from there. Some models show the low moving more to the northeast,
which centers it more inland by the time it reaches our neck of the
woods. Other guidance shows a more ENE trend, which keeps the
surface low closer to the Carolina coasts. HRRR and RAP13 (which are
basically cousins) have struggled today with radar trends, but are
starting to slowly come around. This guidance keeps the low closer
to the coast, so the official forecast reflects more of those
trends. This increases the instability, so I kept more thunder in
the forecast, becoming more widespread near sunset. Seeing
potentially two rounds of storms tonight...one in the evening, the
other during the overnight hours, moving generally WSW to the ENE.
Storms are widely scattered in nature, creating quite a variety in
rainfall amounts, from a tenth or a quarter of an inch to possibly
an inch or more in some spots.
Bulk of the activity should slow down before sunrise Thursday
morning, with the surface low located in eastern North Carolina.
With the boundary layer plenty moistened, expecting to see patchy
fog set up, potentially dense at times. This may linger through the
mid-morning hours, before dry air aloft mixes toward the surface.
Weak high pressure enters stage left, skies clear out, winds shift
from the west, and highs Thursday shoot up into the mid 70s inland
and lower 70s at the coast.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The occluded low will be well to the northeast of our area.
Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday, but a second storm
system that will shift to the north of the region will drag a
cold front across the area late Friday. There will be a good
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of this
front. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower 50s and a few
upper 40s in the colder spot, and lower 60s Friday night. Ahead
of the cold front a good southerly flow on Friday, the highs
will reach the into the upper 70s and to the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The storm systems from the southwest United States and the Pacific
Northwest will impact the coastal Carolinas during the extended
period. The first system`s low- pressure center will track from
West Texas to Lake Erie. This low will push a cold front across
our region on Saturday and bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area Saturday, clearing out late Saturday
as high pressure builds into the region.
By Wednesday, the 2nd system will track from Utah into the Texas
Panhandle and then into central Illinois. The high pressure
will give way, and the increased southerly flow and moisture
will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Temperatures will oscillate with the frontal passages. Highs
ahead of the fronts will be in the mid to upper 70s inland
(cooler at the beaches), and after the show on Saturday, the
highs will be around the 70s and slowly warm back to the upper
70s by Wednesday.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly MVFR conditions this evening with a couple of somewhat
organized but seemingly weakening areas of rain and some
convection. FLO has been dipping into IFR briefly where the
heaviest rain resides but it appears mid level dry air will soon
put an end or at least weaken this trend. Similar scenario
along the coast with lighter rain. Overall see MVFR the dominant
category for most of the night as dry air erodes the heavier
activity. Some threat for IFR fog early Thursday if winds can
diminish in the wake of the system and skies clear some.
Extended Outlook...VFR continues until a quick moving low
pressure system affects the area Friday night into Saturday. VFR
comes back Saturday afternoon through early next week.
Through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal
waters through the overnight hours, officially ending at 2 AM EDT
for the SC waters, and 6 AM EDT for the NC waters. There`s a chance
the advisory could be cancelled even earlier, as seas may decrease
below thresholds earlier than expected. Tonight, winds shift from
the SSE to southwesterly by Thursday morning, lingering near 15kts
throughout the day. Seas generally linger near 2-4ft, with a few 5ft
waves possible away from shore.
Thursday Night through Monday...High pressure will give way to a
cold front which will cross the coastal waters on Saturday.
This front will bring small craft conditions to the waters late
Friday into Saturday night. Wave heights will peak around 6 feet
in response to the south to southwest winds of 20 knots. Seas
and winds will diminish as high pressure builds over the waters
Sunday into Monday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ254-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
843 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Quiet weather will persist through much of Thursday across
Illinois with well above normal temperatures. The next chance for
rain arrives later Thursday night and Friday as a cold front and
low pressure system lift through just north of the Ohio River
Valley. Cooler temperatures are expected for the start of the
weekend, but will warm back up early next week.
Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Forecast looks on track tonight and just a few minor updates done.
The diurnal driven cu field from I-55 west dissipate shortly
after sunset as expected, leaving clear skies across CWA at mid
evening. Cirrus clouds to increase from the west later tonight
with south winds generally less than 10 mph, light winds in
southeast IL. Lows overnight will be 45-50F, not too far from
normal highs for mid March in lower 50s central IL and near 55F in
A 562 dm 500 mb low was over central Georgia while upper level
trof extended from the Canadian Prairie Provinces down into the US
Rockies. A weak upper level ridge between these systems was over
the lower/mid MS river valley and into the upper Ohio river valley
including southeast IL. A cold front extends from central MN
through nw IA into central KS to 1000 mb low pressure in east
Latest CAMs move the cold front se toward the IA/IL border and nw
MO by 12Z/7 am Thu and slowly moving se toward the IL river by
21Z/4 pm Thu. Some mid/high clouds to spread east into the IL
river valley late tonight, otherwise fair skies prevail tonight
and fog formation will be limited due to lower dewpoints in the
low to mid 40s. Far southeast IL has best chance of seeing patchy
fog later tonight where winds will be light to calm and skies stay
clear, though most CAMs keep fog southeast of Lawrence county.
After a pleasant afternoon with highs in the lower 70s, temps have
fallen into the mid 50s to lower 60s by 8 pm. HRRR model brings
temps down into the mid to upper 40s by daybreak, with areas from
Springfield sw near 50F.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
A pleasant early Spring day ongoing as southwest flow aloft
continues to feed in mild temperatures. Temperatures as of 3 PM are
sitting in the upper 60s to low 70s. Diurnal cumulus are draped from
roughly Bloomington southward toward Jacksonville, with these
expected to scatter out by this evening. Two upper waves will move
into the Upper Great Lakes Region and just north of the Ohio River
Valley through the end of the week and bring our next chance for
precipitation. A cold front associated with the northern wave
will move through the area on Thursday before stalling out from
roughly Champaign to Jacksonville as the southern low quickly
approaches. Temperatures on Thursday will be unseasonably warm
once again, though slightly cooler values will be seen west of the
Illinois River behind the cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
The southern stream shortwave previously mentioned will lift into
the middle Mississippi River Valley, sending a surface low just
north of the Ohio River Valley. Scattered showers look to develop
along the cold front Thursday evening. A swath of moisture transport
will lift northward into the area by Friday morning, bringing
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. The low will quickly lift
northeast toward Michigan by Saturday morning, with light rain
lingering behind it. Precipitation amounts look to range from about
0.50-1" across the area with the highest amounts looking to fall in
west-central parts of the state. As cooler air filters in Friday
night into Saturday morning, a brief period of a rain/snow mix will
be possible mainly along and north of I-72. With warm grounds in
place, little to no snow accumulation is currently expected.
The longwave trough associated with the aforementioned shortwaves
will slide through the Midwest states over the weekend, with upper
ridging building in it`s wake Temperatures will be cooler for the
start of the weekend before we rebound back into the upper 50s to
60s for the end of the weekend into early next week. The next chance
for precipitation looks to hold off until around the middle of
next week when another system looks to track through the area.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
VFR conditions are expected to continue across the central IL
airports next 24 hours, through 00Z/7 pm Thu. Few to scattered
cumulus clouds with bases of 5-7k ft from I-55 west will dissipate
shortly after sunset, leaving fair skies tonight. Mid/high clouds
will spread east across central IL late tonight into Thu morning.
Broken cumulus clouds with VFR bases 5-7k ft to develop/spread
into central IL during Thu afternoon. SW winds are already losing
their gustiness and expect winds to veer south under 10 kts early
this evening and SSW winds 5-10 kts prevail Thu. A cold front
will move through the IL river valley mid/late Thu afternoon with
winds switching NW then NNE starting at PIA around 21Z and I-55
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
949 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Forecast was largely on track tonight with only minor updates
needed to overnight lows to account for current trends. Temperatures
are still expected to fall into the upper 40s/low 50s through the
night, which in combination with similar dewpoint values, light
onshore flow, and clear skies will likely lead to widespread
patchy fog. Fog development is mainly expected to become an issue
after midnight, continuing through sunrise. Luckily it doesn`t
look like we will meet advisory criteria with this round of fog at
this time. Otherwise, overnight conditions look quiet with no
other areas of concern anticipated. This will of course change by
this time tomorrow, as another round of severe weather looks to
move through the region tomorrow night into Friday morning.
Fortunately until then things remain quiet.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022/
For the 03/17/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
SCT/BKN clouds over AEX/LFT/ARA continue to diminish as the upper
low that moved through yesterday continues to exit the region. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the period, although
with light winds tonight and clear skies, there will be the
potential for patchy fog. Vsby reductions to MVFR (with
intermittent IFR) will be possible late tonight into early
Thursday morning. As the sfc ridge continues to move east,
southerly winds will develop areawide, strengthening and bcmg
gusty during the aftn. Clouds are expected to increase from west
to east late in the day Thursday with the approach of the next
disturbance, and MVFR cigs may develop toward the end of the
period at BPT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022/
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...
High pressure will continue to move eastward out of the area this
evening. Mostly clear skies will be expected this evening. Some
patchy fog will be possible throughout the area tonight into
tomorrow morning as winds will be light and will be expected to
become more southerly this evening into tonight. Although there
is not a significant amount of moisture present, the expected
onshore flow may increase chances.
A cold front will be expected to move through the area late
tomorrow into early Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center
has parts of our area in a Slight Risk of severe weather with
the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. The the most significant
threats will be large hail and lightning. GFS and HRRR model
soundings indicate some shear as well as plenty of low-level
moisture and mid-level moisture which support the possibility of
Temperatures will be expected to be near average over the next few
days. The previous cold front did not have a significant amount of
cold air advection associated with it and it appears the next
cold front expected late tomorrow will not much cold air advection
with it as well.
LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
As we start the long-term portion of the forecast period, we
could see a few showers lingering just behind the departing front
over the far sern coastal waters, otherwise dry weather looks to
prevail through Saturday as sfc high pressure builds across the
region while the departing trof axis provides a brief shot of nwrly
flow aloft. Temperatures will be a little on the cool side as highs
in the upper 60s/lower 70s will be a few degrees blow mid-March
norms. The dry and cool conditions will continue into Saturday night
as the high builds past us, with subseasonal lows mostly in the
Forecast soundings show moisture return commencing on Sunday as the
high moves farther east and a srly low-level flow sets up off the
Gulf. Meanwhile the next Pacific storm system crossing the wrn CONUS
will turn the mid-level flow swrly, opening up the Gulf aloft as
well. In response, a warm up will commence with highs in the
lower/mid 70s...with Sunday night lows in the 50s to possibly around
60 along the coast.
Rain chances return Monday as the initial in a series of
disturbances ejecting newd out of the advancing storm system aloft
combine with the good moisture expected (forecast soundings show
PWAT values up to around 1.7 inches which would be around the daily
maximum for the date). The chance for showers/storms continues into
Tuesday when an associated sfc cold front sweeps across the forecast
area...will have to watch for the potential for severe weather as
forecast soundings indicate really good shear and decent
The whole mess is progged to depart the forecast area during the
evening hours, with developing drier air through the column clearing
out the area into Wednesday. Temps will cool as weak CAA develops in
the front`s wake, although temps will remain seasonal with highs
still in the lower 70s.
High pressure will move out of the area later today into this
evening. Another cold front will move across the coastal waters
Thursday night into Friday morning with high pressure building in
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1134 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022
High pressure continues to move offshore as a weak low
approaches from the south late tonight and Thursday, passing to
the east Thursday night. Weak high pressure briefly returns
Friday. Another low and its associated frontal system will
approach Friday night, and pass through Saturday into Saturday
night. High pressure then builds in through the beginning of
next week before a frontal system moves through sometime in the
middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Fog can be seen rolling in on satellite from the eastern ocean
zone and moving over the South Fork of Long Island. The HRRR
seemed to have a good handle on the timing and extent of fog so
have updated the forecast to somewhat match this guidance over
the next few hours. The fog will continue to expand westward and
northward and then eventually reach the entire area after
Cloud cover gradually builds this evening ahead of an area of low
pressure that passes near the region on Thursday. A light onshore
flow and low-level moisture will allow for the development of
patchy fog across the entire area tonight, generally after
midnight. The fog may linger into the morning hours before the
arrival of the rain. Temperatures overnight remain above normal,
ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light rain is expected to develop across the region in the morning
hours, with PoPs becoming likely across NYC and Long Island by 15z,
expanding north and east into the afternoon. There remains some
differences amongst guidance as to the precise track of the low
and placement of steadiest/heaviest rainfall. In general though,
the closer to the coast you get the likelier you are of seeing
rain during the day. With weak lift and relatively limited
moisture, only modest rainfall rates/totals are expected.
Occasional periods of moderate rain may occur, especially
earlier in the day. Otherwise, expect mostly light rain to fall.
For QPF, stuck close to WPC guidance, which seems reasonable,
with around a quarter to half inch along the coast, and up to a
quarter inch inland. The rain and cloud cover will keep
temperatures down compared to previous days, topping out in the
50s almost everywhere. The low quickly scoots east Thursday
evening, bringing the rain to an end everywhere by midnight. A
progressive upper flow allows conditions to dry Thursday night
as the low exits and ridging briefly builds in. WAA sets up
early Friday ahead of an amplified longwave trough moving east
across the Central US.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure briefly builds over the area Friday as low
pressure departs to the northeast and another system approaches
from the southwest. With heights slightly rising aloft, mostly
sunny skies and a W-SW flow, the area is set to see temperatures
well above normal. In collaboration with neighboring offices
have went slightly above NBM guidance across the interior with
the possibility of temperatures overachieving. NYC and northeast
NJ are forecast to have highs in the lower to mid 70s, which
would be about 20 degrees above normal. Across interior CT and
the Lower Hudson Valley highs likely reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s. With water temperatures still being in the lower to
mid 40s, coastal CT and Long Island will have lower high
temperatures, in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Off to our southwest, an upper level trough approaches along with
associated surface low pressure. A warm front moves through the area
sometime early Saturday as moisture begins to increase. By the
afternoon dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 50s. Rain
showers are possible for far western locations as early as early as
late Friday night, but doesn`t become likely until Friday morning.
Rain showers can then be expected through Saturday afternoon across
the whole area. With some elevated instability being shown in model
soundings a rumble of thunder is possible, but will continue to keep
out of the forecast for now with low confidence. On average about a
quarter to half an inch of rainfall is expected, with locally higher
amounts possible under some moderate rain showers.
A cold front moves through Saturday night and a gusty W-NW flow
follows. High pressure slowly builds in through early next week with
dry conditions expected. Towards the middle of next week guidance
begins to diverge on solutions. Another frontal system is expected
to move through the area, but timing is uncertain. The GFS is the
quickest and brings the system in by Wednesday morning. The Euro and
Canadian are a bit slower with a more amplified level ridge over the
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Difficult flight category forecast as high pressure departs,
and low pressure moves off the southern Mid Atlantic coast early
Thu afternoon and passes S of Long Island by late day or early
evening. Monitoring fog bank currently drifting W from the forks
of Long Island and SE CT that has already brought LIFR cigs to
KGON. Indications are this fog bank will expand toward KBDR/KISP
initially given light onshore flow, then westward overnight
toward KHPN and the NYC metros as winds back E, while high
clouds overspread the area from the SW. Think the NYC metros
will eventually see IFR or LIFR cigs arrive between 06Z- 09Z and
remain through the day as light rain moves in during the late
morning and afternoon. It remains to be seen if the high clouds
moving in can prevent a worst-case scenario of VLIFR conds at
the metros before the rain moves in, from about 08Z-14Z. AMD`s
should be expected as the situation unfolds tonight.
Light SE winds become E overnight and then NE daytime
Thu at the NYC metros and during the afternoon farther east.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of IFR/LIFR cond overnight uncertain. Worst case scenario
of VLIFR cond possible from about 08Z-14Z, but high clouds may
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night...Rain ending, with gradually improving
conditions. MVFR at the NYC metros 01Z-02Z, VFR around 06Z.
.Friday night and Saturday...Rain. MVFR or lower cond possible
.Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20kt.
.Monday...VFR. NW winds 15G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
Areas of dense fog remain on the Long Island Sound waters and
southward into the ocean waters, and the bays of Long Island.
The fog will continue to spread northward and westward over the
next several hours, and with areas of visibilities 1/2 NM or
less have issued a dense fog advisory. As the rain move into the
area toward morning visibilities are expected to improve.
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels as weak low pressure
approaches late tonight and Thursday, and moves east Thursday
night. An increasing northerly flow late Thursday night and
increasing southeast swell in the wake of the low will allow
ocean seas to build to around 5 feet late Thursday night into
Seas will be at or near SCA criteria Friday morning on the ocean
waters and then may briefly fall below 5 ft Friday night into
Saturday morning. As the next low pressure system approaches, seas
rise above 5 ft Saturday and reach 7 ft Sunday morning. By Monday
morning, as high pressure builds in, seas will fall back below 5 ft
and remain there through the middle of next week. As for winds, a NW
flow as low pressure departs and high pressure builds in may gust up
to 25 kt Sunday night through Monday.
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022
1) An upper level weather system will bring widespread precipitation
to the area tonight through Thursday.
2) Snow level starts out around 7000 feet early this evening, then
falls to around 5000 feet Thursday morning.
3) Heavy, wet snow will produce difficult travel conditions over the
eastern mountains and Palmer Divide from this evening through Thursday
Currently...two pieces of upper level energy are taking shape across
the region and will impact the region through tomorrow afternoon.
Satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover spread across much of
southern Colorado in southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures across
the far Eastern Plains have warmed nicely, with mid 60s near the
Kansas border. Further west, cloud cover has kept temperatures in
the mid to upper 50s. Radar imagery shows light returns from the La
Garita Range, northeast into Teller County. Not seeing any
observations reporting precipitation at this time, but would not be
surprised if a few flakes are falling over the higher terrain.
Tonight...complicated forecast in regards to precipitation type. The
upper system is forecast to strengthen over northern New Mexico
overnight. As it does so, a 700 mb low is forecast to develop and
strengthen near Trinidad, with increasing easterly mid level
easterly flow. High-res model guidance shows easterly winds
increasing to near 30 kts overnight into Thursday morning. The air
mass at the surface is quite moist with dew points in the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Given the combined upslope flow, low level moisture
and forcing aloft from the upper system, moderate to heavy
precipitation is expected over the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25
corridor. At the surface, a boundary will turn flow northeasterly
with weak cold air advection across the Plains. That leads to the
issue of precipitation type.
Snow levels look to begin around 7 kft late this afternoon and
evening over the Palmer Divide and over the Mountains. Temperatures
will be slow to cool off, with overnight lows in the lower 30s.
Colorado Springs will only fall to around 30 degrees, with Pueblo
around 33 degrees. Precipitation will likely begin as rain this
afternoon and evening, slowly changing over the snow around
midnight. Snow totals will highly depend on when the change over to
snow occurs. The highest snow totals are expected over the
Mountains and Palmer Divide. Its likely that all areas will see
snow by morning as snow levels fall to under 5 kft. At times, snow
and rainfall could be quite heavy, especially along the I-25
Thursday...the upper system will continue to lift into the Central
Plains during the day. As it does so, mid level flow will shift
more northerly and become gusty. This will also allow for snow to
dissipate by mid to late morning north of Highway 50. Snow will
continue down south along the southern Sangre de Cristo and Raton
Mesa region, and east across the Plains closer to the upper and mid
level low. Snow should shut down across the region by late
afternoon from northwest to southeast. North winds, gusting to 45
mph are possible on the Plains. Temperatures will likely remain
pretty steady, with mid 30s across the Plains. Precipitation will
likely waver between rain and snow, with higher elevations
continuing to see snowfall.
Heavy precipitation should be limited to the morning hours,
especially for the Eastern Mountains. Overall snowfall
accumulations for the Eastern Mountain areas will range in the 6 to
12 inch range. Areas along the Palmer Divide will see 4 to 8
inches. Lower elevations will be highly dependent on temperatures,
and when rain changes to snow. Generally less than 2 to 4 inches
expected over El Paso County, and over the southern I-25 corridor.
As for elevations under 5 kft, much will depend again on snow change
over. If rain can change over to snow earlier tonight, higher snow
accumulation totals may be possible. Mozley
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022
1) Exiting low pressure system will still provide a chance for snow
showers over areas of southeast Colorado for late Thursday
night/Early Friday morning.
2) A weak upper level disturbance will provide a slight chance of
snow showers over the mountains late Friday evening/early Saturday
3) A break in active weather will occur over the weekend as a ridge
builds in, with warmer and drier conditions.
4) A potentially strong and impactful low pressure system could
bring very heavy snow and possibly even blizzard-like conditions to
areas of southeast Colorado early next week.
Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...
A major shortwave trough is still going to be located over central
CONUS and continuing to propagate eastward with the associated low
pressure system exiting the region. There could still be some
lingering snow showers on the backside of this low affecting some
areas of the CWA going into the late Thursday night and early Friday
morning hours. The NAM 4km Nest keeps the last remaining snow
showers over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains going until
around 08Z Friday (2 AM MDT), while the NAM12 still has a few snow
showers over the Raton Mesa area and San Juan Mountains at 09Z
Friday (3 AM MDT). The HRRR has everything ending by about 06Z
(midnight). The GEFS and EPS ensembles display nearly a similar end
time, with the majority of members ending snow by 3 AM. High
pressure is going to subsequently build in tomorrow with clearing
skies and warming up back to near seasonal average. Winds will still
be rather strong and gusty over the southeastern plains tomorrow
evening, closer to the low pressure circulation, but then continue
to weaken going into the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be
in the upper teens to mid 20s for the plains, and single digits to
teens for high country. Northerly winds over the plains Thursday
evening will shift to a more WNW`ly flow by Friday morning and
continue to weaken and further veer to the west throughout the day.
The weak downsloping winds will also help to warm up temperatures
over the plains for Friday`s highs, generally being in the upper 40s
over the northern plains to the upper 50s for the Lower Arkansas
River Valley. Highs for the San Luis Valley, Upper Arkansas River
Valley, and other high mountain valleys will be in the 40s, and
anywhere from about 15 on the highest peaks to the 30s for the
Friday evening through Sunday morning...
Some of the models suggest that it will remain dry throughout the
weekend. However, with the longwave trough still remaining
overhead, other models such as the NAM and the GFS have picked up
on a weak mid to upper level perturbation moving over the region
late Friday night through early Saturday morning which could
provide some snow showers over the mountains. The NAM12 appears to
have a higher concentrated area of snow over the San Juan
Mountain, whereas the GFS puts more of the emphasis over the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This looks to propagate over
the region fairly quickly and dry conditions will prevail for all
of the CWA by late morning on Saturday as ridging begins to move
in. Ridging is going to continue to move over the area with high
pressure conditions being in place by later in the day on
Saturday. Much warmer on Saturday, especially over the plains and
San Luis Valley with a prevailing southerly wind over these
locations. Winds in the mid to upper levels and higher elevations
will begin to turn more SW`ly ahead of the next approaching major
shortwave trough early next week. Near critical fire weather
conditions will be spotty over areas of the southeastern plains,
as the minimum relative humidity values look to be close, but above
the threshold at this time.
Sunday afternoon through Wednesday...
The ridge will continue to move eastward as a deepening longwave
trough with a very progressive major shortwave trough associated
with it that will begin to move over Colorado and impact the CWA as
early as Sunday afternoon with snow beginning over the Central
Mountains. This has the potential to be a very impactful low
pressure system with very high snowfall amounts. Ensemble guidance
suggests that some areas could receive as much as 12 to 18 inches of
new snowfall around the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas.
Depending on where the position of the low pressure center is will
ultimately determine which areas potentially see the highest
amounts. Deterministic model guidance has a fairly good agreement
with where the axis of the tough will be itself, however, the
position of the closed low at the 500 mb level differs between them.
In the most recent runs, the GFS has kept the location the furthest
to the NE over southwestern Kansas at 00Z on Tuesday (6 PM on
Monday), whereas the Canadian has been shifting the low more to the
NE to better match the GFS in previous runs. The ECMWF on the other
hand, has been relatively persistent in keeping the 500 mb closed
low more to the SW over southeastern New Mexico at the same forecast
time. The 700 mb level looks to be more favorable with the ECMWF in
terms of wrap around moisture and overrunning for the CWA. The GFS
has the 700 mb level better favoring the Palmer Divide, but not as
much the Lower Arkansas River Valley.
The snow level will also be ambiguous with this system. Depending on
the timing and location of the low could determine just how far
south the cold air progresses and which areas in the lower Arkansas
River Valley and eastern plains will see the rain transition over to
snow. At this time, it does look like this system will provide a
good amount of QPF for many locations, especially where there is
sufficient upsloping. In certain areas more to the north where snow
ratios are expected to be higher, a somewhat fluffier snow could
contribute to higher snowfall totals, whereas the lower levels over
the plains will see more of a wetter and slushier snow as snowfall
ratios are lower. The potential is there of this being an
"Albuquerque Low" type scenario, where significant upsloping could
provide very heavy snowfall total amounts along the adjacent plains
of the eastern mountains and the eastern facing slopes, especially
along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa. This
is relatively far enough out in the forecast that models could
change and even a shift in the position of the low could result in a
much different outcome. The brunt of the precipitation will impact
all areas of the CWA on Monday, and then lingering snow showers will
diminish and move out throughout the day on Tuesday. Winds could
also be a major factor, being very strong and gusty as the
deformation zone moves over, with potentially blizzard-like
conditions over areas of the plains where heavy snowfall is falling.
there will not be very cold air advection from the north with this
and therefore temperatures will only be slightly below the seasonal
average for most locations for both Monday and Tuesday.
Continued clearing will occur later in the day on Tuesday as high
pressure builds back in, along with weakening winds. The ridge will
continue to move over with further warming and drying conditions for
southeast Colorado on Wednesday of next week, although winds will
remain out of the NW and therefore it will remain relatively cool
for this time of year. -Stewey
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022
VFR conditions at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS are expected to degrade to
MVFR conditions by 05Z tonight at KCOS and 09Z at KPUB and KALS.
KCOS is expected to drop into IFR conditions by 09Z on Thursday
morning. Rain begins at KCOS Wednesday evening, quickly changing to
a rain/snow mix and eventually completely over to snow through the
overnight hours. 35KT northerly winds and snow will degrade
visibility to 1/2SM through Thursday morning. Snow will end and
ceilings will begin to improve after 17Z on Thursday morning. At
KPUB, rain begins this evening and changes to a rain/snow mix after
midnight. Northeasterly winds gusting up to 35KT and ceilings down
to 1000ft will persist through Thursday morning. KALS will see
vicinity showers move on station by 11Z Thursday morning with
ceilings down to 1000ft and northerly winds gusting up to 25KT.
All three TAF sites are expected to reach VFR conditions by Thursday
afternoon, with ceilings climbing back above 3000ft at KALS by 18Z,
and by 22Z at KCOS and KPUB.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT
Thursday for COZ087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Thursday for COZ072>080.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for COZ058-060.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Thursday
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Thursday for COZ085.