Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/15/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
803 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022
.UPDATE...
The short term forecast remains on track for this evening, with
only minor adjustments made based on the latest observations and
trends.
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
In the mid levels, a trough currently just east of the four corners
region will dig as it moves eastward. A closed low should develop
near the Arklatex tonight. The closed low will move east across the
southeast states during the early part of the week.
At the surface, a high pressure ridge is currently situated across
middle Georgia. The ridge will begin to shift eastward tomorrow as a
low pressure system along the Gulf Coast moves eastward. As the low
moves eastward, precipitation should begin to overspread the CWA from
the west/southwest.
There are some differences with the hi-res model precip timing.
Ended up taking a blend between the HRRR and the NBM timing. Both
were fairly similar. NBM temperatures looked a little warm for
tomorrow, especially with the rainfall coverage, so blended down a
degree or two.
Instability looks fairly minimal as this system moves through. Do
think there will be enough forcing for a slight chance of
thunderstorms, especially across central and southern portions of the
CWA. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out.
NListemaa
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes to the long term forecast at this time, picking up
with a cut-off mid-lvl low and associated surface low situated over
the the SE US on Wednesday. Kept current theme of overspreading
Likely to Categorical PoPs over the area by Wednesday afternoon
through overnight into Thursday as the system ejects NE. Still not
expecting a widespread severe threat with latest SPC outlook showing
General Thunder for the CWA, however would not be surprised if a few
storms become severe on Wednesday afternoon over central Georgia
given GFS progging MU/SBCAPE values around 500-1000 j/kg. Continuing
with the theme, no major changes to rainfall with Storm Total QPF
for this system around 0.50 to 1.0" generally along and north of the
I-20 corridor, and between 1.0 to 2.0" southward of I-20 into
central Georgia.
Expecting the first system to push out of the CWA by Thursday
morning, with just a brief respite during the afternoon before
another shortwave system approaches the area. There continues to be
some disagreement in the model solutions with this system, with the
GFS opting for a more robust and deeper parent closed low deepening
over the Great Lakes and the Euro siding with a more subdued
solution taking the low over the Ohio Valley, eventually deepening
by Saturday night over eastern Great Lakes. Even with this model
uncertainty, kept current thinking of Likely PoPs over western GA on
Friday. QPF for this system remains light, with generally under 0.5
inches over the CWA.
Morgan
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions are in place across north and central Georgia, and
will persist through the overnight hours. Lower ceilings and
showers will approach from the southwest during the late morning
and afternoon tomorrow. MVFR ceilings are expected to first arrive
at CSG at 18Z, then ATL at 21Z. Precipitation chances will
steadily increase, warranting VCSH after 21Z and prevailing -SHRA
after 23Z. S to SE winds this evening will become mainly E
overnight and throughout the day on Tuesday, increasing to 7-10
kts during the afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
King
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 43 65 50 59 / 0 40 90 90
Atlanta 46 63 52 60 / 0 60 90 80
Blairsville 38 60 46 58 / 0 30 80 80
Cartersville 42 62 50 62 / 0 60 90 80
Columbus 48 65 55 67 / 0 90 100 70
Gainesville 43 62 50 58 / 0 40 90 80
Macon 46 70 54 67 / 0 80 100 80
Rome 41 63 50 62 / 0 50 90 70
Peachtree City 44 64 51 62 / 0 70 100 80
Vidalia 49 72 57 72 / 0 60 100 80
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Morgan
AVIATION...King
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1014 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Corrected headline coding.
UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the area where significant snow
fell earlier in the day, with the exception of Door County. Dense
fog has already developed in parts of north central WI, and should
eventually expand farther east. There is a possibility that the
fog may expand north into Oneida, Forest, northern Marinette and
Florence counties late tonight, but just not confident enough to
go with that right now.
The Fgen band is still hanging tough from central WI into northern
Kewaunee County, but is mainly producing flurries at this time.
UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Pockets of light snow or flurries continued within a disorganized
band from AUW/MFI to OCQ/SUE. Little additional accumulation is
expected, so the remainder of the advisory has been cancelled.
Have added patchy/areas of fog to parts of the forecast area
overnight into Tuesday morning, especially where the main band of
snow occurred today.
UPDATE
Issued at 527 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
The snow band continues to shift south and is now showing signs of
becoming much less organized. Visibilities within the main band
are mainly around 1 mile. Have pulled Marathon, Menominee and
southern Marinette counties from the advisory.
UPDATE
Issued at 429 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
The snow band has shifted south of Langlade and northern Oconto
counties, so have removed them from the advisory. A band of moderate
to heavy snow extending from Marshfield to Keshena to Marinette
and Ephraim continued to gradually sag south. Snowfall rates in
excess of 1 inch/hour are likely still occurring within this band,
so additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, and local 3 inch
amounts, are likely.
UPDATE
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Updated the headline coding for the Winter Weather Advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show
convergent mid-level flow occurring from southwest to northeast
Wisconsin early this afternoon. This convergent flow has led to a
focused, frontogenesis dominated band of snow that has been
centered from Merrill and Wausau to northern Door county so far
today. Reports through 12 pm yielded about 1-4 inches and 1-2
inches/hour snowfall rates so far in the band. Moderate to heavy
snow will likely continue through approximately 3-4 pm before
becoming increasingly more narrow and weaker. Most of the snow
should end by early this evening. Besides the narrow band of heavy
snow, forecast concerns mainly revolve around low clouds and
temps.
Tonight...The band of snow will continue to narrow before
dissipating by 8-9 pm. Additional accumulations may only amount to
a couple tenths of an inch. While high pressure will build into
the Upper Peninsula, guidance shows that weak convergence and
residual low level moisture will hang around central to east-
central Wisconsin for much of the night. As a result, think these
areas will remain on the mostly cloudy side and therefore warmer
than locations over far northern WI. Low temps will range from low
teens near the U.P. border to near 30 over the southern Fox
Valley and Lakeshore.
Tuesday...Weak high pressure will hang across the region. Warmer
and drier air will invade the region from the west, which should
lead to a warmer day. With clouds clearing in the morning, highs
should range from the low 40s to low 50s across the region.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Main focus is on temperatures along with precipitation potential
late in the work week.
Tuesday night through Thursday... As a surface low moves along
the north-central US and southern Canadian border will see clouds
increasing across the area Tuesday night. A warm front then moves
from south to north across Wisconsin on Wednesday. This will
usher in a warmer air mass with forecast highs expected to reach
the upper 40s and 50s. Some low 60s are not out of the question,
but will see how the cloud cover possibly inhibits further
warming. The low then drags a cold front across WI Wednesday
night. Moisture is looking rather limited so kept the forecast dry
during this time. A few sprinkles or isolated, short-lived
showers are possible, but most places will be dry. Highs on
Thursday will be cooler, but still above normal in the 40s and low
50s.
Thursday night through Friday...Still seeing significant
differences in the deterministic models. The GFS develops a potent
mid-level shortwave and coinciding surface low and tracks this
from Texas to lower Michigan, bringing snow and mixed
precipitation to the area, particularly in the southeast forecast
area. However, the ECMWF and Canadian do not develop this southern
stream energy nearly as strong and what does develop doesn`t even
make it to Wisconsin, yet alone northeast WI. The GFS remains the
outlier and trended the forecast drier with just slight chance
PoPs in the southeast forecast area. This period should be watched
though in case models trends closer to the GFS solution.
Saturday through Monday...Better agreement by the weekend with
high pressure stretching over the Plains and towards the Great
Lakes. Quiet weather is expected with temperatures trending above
normal. A system developing off the Rockies could bring precip to
the area on Monday. Right now temps are warm enough to support
mainly rain, with a little snow possible early in the morning
when temps are the coolest.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
A disorganized band of very light snow or flurries should
continue to dissipate over central and east central WI toward
midnight. Areas of stratus and fog have developed over the area
that received significant snowfall earlier in the day, and expect
this to expand northward overnight. Areas of dense fog will be
possible in the area of fresh snow cover (including AUW/CWA), and
a dense fog advisory has been posted there through mid-morning
Tuesday. Conditions are less certain farther south, where many
locations have improved to VFR. Suspect that SCT-BKN low clouds
will still impact the GRB/ATW/MTW TAF sites overnight. Partial
clearing and improving visibilities should allow flight conditions
to return to VFR regionwide in the late morning/early afternoon
on Tuesday, with good flying conditions persisting into the
evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight until 10 AM CDT Tuesday
for WIZ020-021-031-073-074.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ018-019-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KLJ
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
938 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
.EVENING UPDATE...
At this point of the evening, low clouds are increasing a bit
sooner than expected, but overall, current forecast is in decent
shape, and not planning any forecast updates in the next hour or
two.
There`s going to have to be a good bit of airmass modification
over the next 6 hours in our CWA to get thunderstorms, though.
Per the 00z LIX sounding, a warm layer near 650 mb is going to
inhibit any deep convection for a while. We could see some showers
that could top out around 10K feet over the next few hours. The
LCH 00z sounding showing that cooling is needed, but not as much
as here locally, so the cooling that we`ll need for deep convection
is at least several hours away. The latest runs of the HRRR do
indicate that the cooling will eventually occur overnight as the
moisture deepens, so the threat hasn`t diminished significantly.
Would note that the low level wind fields are a little more
favorable for tornadoes with the LCH 0-1 and 0-3 km helicities in
excess of 300, and the LIX ones at 225. Will hold to the previous
timing as noted in graphical products and social media, primarily
after 3 AM CDT. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A very progressive
pattern is expected in the upper levels through Thursday night as
a largely zonal flow regime dominates the CONUS. Embedded within
this westerly flow pattern, two vigorous upper level lows will
slide from the Plains through the Lower and Mid-Mississippi
Valleys. The first of these features is already impacting the area
today with increasing low level moisture and gusty southeast
winds. A broad and deep region of increasing omega and mid to
upper level forcing will overspread the forecast area tonight in
advance of this approaching upper level low, and a surface low
should form over north Texas and then push east along the I-20
corridor late tonight into tomorrow. As this surface low deepens,
a dry line will develop over Texas and then race to the east.
Strong low level convergence along this boundary will combine with
the deep layer forcing aloft to develop a band of showers and
thunderstorms. The dry line and band of convection is expected to
sweep through the forecast area late tonight into the early
morning hours tomorrow. The boundary should be clear of the
eastern portions of the CWA by midday tomorrow.
A review of sounding analysis at various points across the region
continues to indicate that a stable layer of air will remain in
place near the surface, and this will likely keep all of the
convection elevated over most of the forecast area. Portions of
coastal Southeast Louisiana and the offshore waters will have a
better chance of surface based convection as the stable layer
should be less pronounced due to the warmer nearshore waters in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches per
hour and hail will be the primary concern further inland with the
deepest convective cells.
In the wake of the dryline and initial convective band in the
morning, skies should turn partly cloudy as drier air in the mid-
levels begins to advect into the region and temperatures should
warm into the lower to middle 70s. In the upper levels, the core
of the upper level low will pass through central Mississippi
late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, and 500mb
temperatures should fall to between -18 and -20C. These cold
temperatures aloft will promote very steep mid-level lapse rates
in excess of 7C/km, and these values would be supportive of widely
scattered convection forming as convective temperatures in the
lower to middle 70s are reached. The one ingredient that will
limit overall PoP to 30 percent or less is the drier mid-level
airmass advecting into the area. Lapse rates and moisture profiles
are most favorable for areas north of the I-10 corridor, and this
is where PoP lingers through the evening hours in the forecast
before clearing by late evening.
Strong negative vorticity advection associated with an shortwave
ridge building in from the west on Wednesday will lead to clearing
skies by the afternoon and temperatures should be near average.
High pressure will linger over the region through Thursday
morning, but the ridge axis will shift toward the eastern CONUS by
Thursday afternoon. In the wake of the ridge, the next shortwave
trough will quickly approach. A low pressure system should begin
to form over Texas on Thursday, and this will result in winds
shifting back to the south and increasing in speed through the
day. A surge of deeper moisture into the region will accompany
this onshore flow, and another band of convection should impact
the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Model sounding
analysis indicates that conditions may be more favorable for some
surface based convection in the region with MLCAPE of 500 to
1000J/KG, and directional shear of 200 M2/S2 would support some
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity Thursday night
over more coastal portions of the CWA.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...The parent upper level low
driving the convection Thursday night will begin to depart on
Friday, and improving conditions are expected through the day.
The band of convection will likely still be impacting eastern
portions of the CWA generally across coastal Mississippi and
extreme coastal Southeast Louisiana Friday morning, but clearing
skies and dry conditions are expected by Friday evening as a front
pushes offshore and increasing dry air advection and upper level
subsidence takes hold. This front will likely stall over the
coastal waters on Saturday, but a secondary impulse sliding the
region will push it further into the Gulf by Sunday. Fortunately,
most of the forecast area will see dry conditions on Saturday as
the convective activity will focused along the front over the
coastal waters. Temperatures will be near average with highs in
the mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s each day.
Monday is expected to be a day of transition as a longwave trough
axis over the western CONUS begins to slowly move toward the
Plains states. Increasingly difluent flow and more favorable jet
dynamics will develop over the Gulf South, and deep layer
southerly flow will usher in a progressively more humid and
unstable airmass through the day. By the afternoon hours, enough
moisture and instability may be in place to support isolated
convective development, but overall coverage will remain somewhat
limited by a persistent mid-level capping inversion. The good news
is that forecast confidence is average during this period as
medium range guidance is in decent agreement through early next
week.
AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist through at least 06z with
only some mid-level cloud decks passing over the terminals. By
09z, a line of convection in advance of an approaching dry line
should bring a period of IFR ceilings and visibilities and gusty
winds to the terminals. This convective band should impact BTR and
MCB between 09z and 12z; MSY, HUM, HDC, NEW, and ASD between 11z
and 14z; GPT between 13z and 16z. Conditions should improve into
MVFR range after the convective band moves through with
visibilities improving to 5 to 7 miles and ceilings rising to
around 1500 to 2500 feet. By the afternoon, further improvement
into VFR range is expected at most of the terminals. However,
lingering MVFR ceilings and the risk of isolated thunderstorms
will persist at KGPT and KMCB through the afternoon hours.
MARINE...A tight pressure gradient over the coastal waters will
remain in place through tomorrow afternoon as a low pressure
system passes north of the region. Onshore winds of 15 to 25 knots
are expected to persist through tomorrow morning before shifting
to a more westerly direction by the afternoon. Due to these
conditions, small craft advisories have been hoisted for the open
Gulf waters east of the river beginning later tonight through
early tomorrow afternoon. As the low departs tomorrow night, high
pressure will build in and winds should fall 5 to 10 knots from
Wednesday through Thursday. Another area of low pressure will
once again pass north of the waters Thursday night into Friday,
and gradient flow should climb back to near or into small craft
advisory levels of 15 to 25 knots for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 55 75 51 73 / 90 80 20 0
BTR 58 75 52 73 / 90 50 10 0
ASD 58 75 52 73 / 90 90 20 0
MSY 60 73 55 71 / 90 80 10 0
GPT 59 71 54 72 / 80 90 20 0
PQL 57 72 52 73 / 60 90 30 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ555-
557-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ557-
575-577.
&&
$$
...Updated Forecast Discussion...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Took a look at fog potential again late tonight into Tuesday
morning and expanded that a bit.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
A cold front is sweeping across the area this afternoon. As of
19Z, it`s draped from Fort Dodge, IA through the Omaha and
Lincoln metros and past Beatrice, NE. Behind that front, some 40s
remain while the rest of the area has managed 50s with a 61 at
last report from FNB. This front is moisture starved and I doubt a
sprinkle was felt across the forecast area.
A trof ejecting out of the Denver area this morning is diving
southeast and closing off as it approaches the Gulf Coast. It`s
currently in the southern stream of the split flow and is bringing
some welcomed moisture to Kansas. Between it and the shortwave
crossing Minnesota this afternoon, we`ve got broad ascent and
have seen a vast deck of cirrus all day long.
Winds, gusting to 35 mph at times this afternoon, will slow
overnight and should slow enough to allow the formation of some
fog. The best chance of that fog will be along a line from Wayne
to Columbus where the night`s coolest temps (lowest dew point
depressions) align with a change and temporary slowing of the
wind field. The HREF suggests a 50-70% chance of visibility
dropping below 1/2 mile. I kept fog mention as patchy in this area
in the morning twilight.
TUESDAY:
Climbing heights, WAA, and some downslope surface flow help
Tuesday`s temps rebound quickly. Expect widespread 60s with 70
possible in the far NW corner of the forecast area. This area is
where fire danger is highest. Drought conditions are worse there,
winds will be stronger (gusting to 30mph) and relative humidity
lowest. RED FLAG WARNING criteria will be met for Knox, Pierce,
Boone, and Antelope Counties. I left Cedar out, but it`ll be
close. Most of the rest of the area will have very high fire
danger. RAP soundings show very dry conditions from the surface
to 500mb. If anything, this RFW may need to be expanded with
subsequent updates.
Southerly flow and continued clear skies will help propel temps
higher for Wednesday with 70s filling in more real estate than on
Tuesday, though shifted south ahead of the next cold front.
Precip isn`t expected with this front, either, as it too is
lacking available moisture. With slightly slower winds and
slightly higher RH, fire danger will be a bit lower than on
Tuesday.
The NEXT BIG THING in the Corn Belt forecast will be the shortwave
trof sweeping north and east across Oklahoma and Missouri. As has
been the case for about 4 days now, the GFS continues to
advertise a stronger and wetter system. This solution brings the
best chance of beneficial rain to the area but is a bit of an
outlier. The cluster analysis suggests the wet possibilities make
up 23% of solutions and 83% of *those* are from the GFS. It`s been
so consistent than I hesitate to ignore it outright, but it`s
certainly on its own. The multi-model ensemble produces less than
0.10" for all but Richardson, Nemaha and Pawnee counties.
Highs will be relegated to seasonal norms with widespread 50s.
Expect heights and temps to climb again for a pleasant spring
weekend. Mid to upper 60s are forecast for Saturday with Sunday
bringing widespread 70s. Have kept NBM`s solution for widespread
rain a week from today as long range deterministic guidance is
on board. Let`s hope it pans out for the area`s soil, flora and
fauna.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
IFR conditions with fog will be possible mainly at KOFK and KOMA
where visibility may drop to 1 mile or less mostly between 11z and
15z. Could drop down to 3 miles at KLNK. Ceilings under 1000 feet
also possible. Tried to not get to pessimistic and may need to
adjust more with 06Z TAFs. Fog will probably burn off pretty quick
14Z to 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-016-
017-030.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
706 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
.AVIATION...
A mix of low VFR/high based MVFR cigs is expected this evening,
although conditions will begin to quickly deteriorate later this
evening from W to E as convection continues to increase and
quickly spread E across the region as a QLCS. This convection will
affect the TYR/GGG/LFK terminals between 00-05Z, TXK/SHV between
02-06Z, and ELD/MLU between 05-10Z. Wind gusts to near/in excess
of 35kts, reduced visibilities, and IFR cigs are possible in and
near the convection, with the potential for VFR conditions
returning in wake of the convection although some areas of
elevated -RA may continue. However, low MVFR/IFR cigs will
eventually return near or prior to 12Z as the parent upper trough
closes off over the area, with these cigs lingering over the area
through much of Tuesday. Some wrap-around -SHRA will be possible
over portions of SE OK/extreme Ern TX/SW AR/N LA during the day,
affecting all but the E TX terminals, with a slow improvement of
cigs to MVFR expected by mid-afternoon across SW AR/N LA, with
little improvement expected through the evening into Tuesday
night. SE winds 6-12kts with gusts to 20 kts over E TX will become
VRB with the passage of the convection later this
evening/overnight. Winds will eventually become WNW around 10kts
over Lower E TX/Cntrl LA after 12Z, and remain VRB or N 5-10kts
over NE TX/SW AR/extreme Nrn LA. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/
A vigorous upper level trough continues to deepen across the
Southern Plains into far west Texas this afternoon and this
feature will be the key player in an outbreak of at least strong
thunderstorms across our region later this evening into the
overnight hours. The lower levels are taking their time with
returning moisture advection and this is the one thing from
making this severe weather risk a much higher one across our
region. Of course without significant moisture advection,
instability really struggles to get going but the deep layer shear
and low level directional shear is there for the development of
surface based discrete storms across a narrow corridor of mainly
Northeast Texas which could result in an isolated tornado/large
hail threat if and when a capping inversion can be overcome later
today into this evening. There does appear to be a narrow window
of opportunity for this to occur in the 00-03z timeframe as the
instability axis that sets up to our west may remain sufficient
enough as it nudges eastward into our portions of Northeast Texas
along a returning pseudo-warm front. This window is rather narrow
as eventual storm mode will transition into a QLCS where wind
would become the main threat into more of Northern Louisiana and
perhaps Southwest Arkansas. Latest CAMS and HRRR outrun the other
lower res progs once this QLCS forms so confidence in timing is
not as great as it should be with this forecast but the faster
timing of the higher res progs does make sense if the QLCS can
develop on time by late this evening.
The severe weather threat should end across our far eastern zones
early Tuesday Morning but it does appear that the upper trough
will become cutoff somewhat as it moves ovhd on Tuesday from the
west and if there has been a trend in the short term progs, it has
been for the dynamics associated with this trough to hold back
more precipitation underneath it and have continued this trend
with this current package, especially near and north of the I-20
Corridor during the day on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out on Tuesday as well given the steep lapse rates
accompanying the upper trough. We should finally lose the
precipitation across our far eastern zones Tuesday Night as the
upper trough slowly spins east of our region.
13
&&
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/
Surface high pressure, along with upper level ridging, will be in
place over the region by the start of the long-term forecast period.
This should yield dry weather and near normal temperatures on
Wednesday, with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in
the lower 70s. But, an upper trough will dig southeastward into the
Southern Plains on Thursday, dragging a cold front across the
region. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region ahead of
this system by Thursday evening, before clearing out with the
passage of the cool front. At this time, the chance for severe
weather appears low, due to the limited amount of instability and
low-level moisture.
Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will return across the
region behind the aforementioned system, bringing near normal temps
and dry weather by Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Dry
weather will remain on Sunday, but the sfc high will slide east of
the region. This will allow for warmer temps, with afternoon highs
climbing into the mid to upper 70s. The flow aloft will transition
to southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, ahead of another upper long-
wave trough and cold front ejecting into the Plains. Thunderstorm
chances will return to the region by Monday morning ahead of this
system, but some uncertainty remains in regards to timing. However,
guidance continues to hint at a severe weather possibility across
the region Monday night into Tuesday.
/20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 52 65 47 70 / 90 40 20 0
MLU 53 68 50 70 / 90 50 30 0
DEQ 49 65 42 71 / 90 60 10 0
TXK 53 63 48 71 / 90 60 10 0
ELD 50 63 46 71 / 90 60 20 0
TYR 49 65 46 72 / 90 20 10 0
GGG 49 65 46 72 / 90 30 10 0
LFK 48 66 47 74 / 90 10 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15