Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/15/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
803 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 .UPDATE... The short term forecast remains on track for this evening, with only minor adjustments made based on the latest observations and trends. Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... In the mid levels, a trough currently just east of the four corners region will dig as it moves eastward. A closed low should develop near the Arklatex tonight. The closed low will move east across the southeast states during the early part of the week. At the surface, a high pressure ridge is currently situated across middle Georgia. The ridge will begin to shift eastward tomorrow as a low pressure system along the Gulf Coast moves eastward. As the low moves eastward, precipitation should begin to overspread the CWA from the west/southwest. There are some differences with the hi-res model precip timing. Ended up taking a blend between the HRRR and the NBM timing. Both were fairly similar. NBM temperatures looked a little warm for tomorrow, especially with the rainfall coverage, so blended down a degree or two. Instability looks fairly minimal as this system moves through. Do think there will be enough forcing for a slight chance of thunderstorms, especially across central and southern portions of the CWA. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. NListemaa LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... No major changes to the long term forecast at this time, picking up with a cut-off mid-lvl low and associated surface low situated over the the SE US on Wednesday. Kept current theme of overspreading Likely to Categorical PoPs over the area by Wednesday afternoon through overnight into Thursday as the system ejects NE. Still not expecting a widespread severe threat with latest SPC outlook showing General Thunder for the CWA, however would not be surprised if a few storms become severe on Wednesday afternoon over central Georgia given GFS progging MU/SBCAPE values around 500-1000 j/kg. Continuing with the theme, no major changes to rainfall with Storm Total QPF for this system around 0.50 to 1.0" generally along and north of the I-20 corridor, and between 1.0 to 2.0" southward of I-20 into central Georgia. Expecting the first system to push out of the CWA by Thursday morning, with just a brief respite during the afternoon before another shortwave system approaches the area. There continues to be some disagreement in the model solutions with this system, with the GFS opting for a more robust and deeper parent closed low deepening over the Great Lakes and the Euro siding with a more subdued solution taking the low over the Ohio Valley, eventually deepening by Saturday night over eastern Great Lakes. Even with this model uncertainty, kept current thinking of Likely PoPs over western GA on Friday. QPF for this system remains light, with generally under 0.5 inches over the CWA. Morgan && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions are in place across north and central Georgia, and will persist through the overnight hours. Lower ceilings and showers will approach from the southwest during the late morning and afternoon tomorrow. MVFR ceilings are expected to first arrive at CSG at 18Z, then ATL at 21Z. Precipitation chances will steadily increase, warranting VCSH after 21Z and prevailing -SHRA after 23Z. S to SE winds this evening will become mainly E overnight and throughout the day on Tuesday, increasing to 7-10 kts during the afternoon. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 43 65 50 59 / 0 40 90 90 Atlanta 46 63 52 60 / 0 60 90 80 Blairsville 38 60 46 58 / 0 30 80 80 Cartersville 42 62 50 62 / 0 60 90 80 Columbus 48 65 55 67 / 0 90 100 70 Gainesville 43 62 50 58 / 0 40 90 80 Macon 46 70 54 67 / 0 80 100 80 Rome 41 63 50 62 / 0 50 90 70 Peachtree City 44 64 51 62 / 0 70 100 80 Vidalia 49 72 57 72 / 0 60 100 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Morgan AVIATION...King
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1014 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 New Information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Corrected headline coding. UPDATE Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the area where significant snow fell earlier in the day, with the exception of Door County. Dense fog has already developed in parts of north central WI, and should eventually expand farther east. There is a possibility that the fog may expand north into Oneida, Forest, northern Marinette and Florence counties late tonight, but just not confident enough to go with that right now. The Fgen band is still hanging tough from central WI into northern Kewaunee County, but is mainly producing flurries at this time. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Pockets of light snow or flurries continued within a disorganized band from AUW/MFI to OCQ/SUE. Little additional accumulation is expected, so the remainder of the advisory has been cancelled. Have added patchy/areas of fog to parts of the forecast area overnight into Tuesday morning, especially where the main band of snow occurred today. UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The snow band continues to shift south and is now showing signs of becoming much less organized. Visibilities within the main band are mainly around 1 mile. Have pulled Marathon, Menominee and southern Marinette counties from the advisory. UPDATE Issued at 429 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The snow band has shifted south of Langlade and northern Oconto counties, so have removed them from the advisory. A band of moderate to heavy snow extending from Marshfield to Keshena to Marinette and Ephraim continued to gradually sag south. Snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch/hour are likely still occurring within this band, so additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, and local 3 inch amounts, are likely. UPDATE Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Updated the headline coding for the Winter Weather Advisory. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show convergent mid-level flow occurring from southwest to northeast Wisconsin early this afternoon. This convergent flow has led to a focused, frontogenesis dominated band of snow that has been centered from Merrill and Wausau to northern Door county so far today. Reports through 12 pm yielded about 1-4 inches and 1-2 inches/hour snowfall rates so far in the band. Moderate to heavy snow will likely continue through approximately 3-4 pm before becoming increasingly more narrow and weaker. Most of the snow should end by early this evening. Besides the narrow band of heavy snow, forecast concerns mainly revolve around low clouds and temps. Tonight...The band of snow will continue to narrow before dissipating by 8-9 pm. Additional accumulations may only amount to a couple tenths of an inch. While high pressure will build into the Upper Peninsula, guidance shows that weak convergence and residual low level moisture will hang around central to east- central Wisconsin for much of the night. As a result, think these areas will remain on the mostly cloudy side and therefore warmer than locations over far northern WI. Low temps will range from low teens near the U.P. border to near 30 over the southern Fox Valley and Lakeshore. Tuesday...Weak high pressure will hang across the region. Warmer and drier air will invade the region from the west, which should lead to a warmer day. With clouds clearing in the morning, highs should range from the low 40s to low 50s across the region. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Main focus is on temperatures along with precipitation potential late in the work week. Tuesday night through Thursday... As a surface low moves along the north-central US and southern Canadian border will see clouds increasing across the area Tuesday night. A warm front then moves from south to north across Wisconsin on Wednesday. This will usher in a warmer air mass with forecast highs expected to reach the upper 40s and 50s. Some low 60s are not out of the question, but will see how the cloud cover possibly inhibits further warming. The low then drags a cold front across WI Wednesday night. Moisture is looking rather limited so kept the forecast dry during this time. A few sprinkles or isolated, short-lived showers are possible, but most places will be dry. Highs on Thursday will be cooler, but still above normal in the 40s and low 50s. Thursday night through Friday...Still seeing significant differences in the deterministic models. The GFS develops a potent mid-level shortwave and coinciding surface low and tracks this from Texas to lower Michigan, bringing snow and mixed precipitation to the area, particularly in the southeast forecast area. However, the ECMWF and Canadian do not develop this southern stream energy nearly as strong and what does develop doesn`t even make it to Wisconsin, yet alone northeast WI. The GFS remains the outlier and trended the forecast drier with just slight chance PoPs in the southeast forecast area. This period should be watched though in case models trends closer to the GFS solution. Saturday through Monday...Better agreement by the weekend with high pressure stretching over the Plains and towards the Great Lakes. Quiet weather is expected with temperatures trending above normal. A system developing off the Rockies could bring precip to the area on Monday. Right now temps are warm enough to support mainly rain, with a little snow possible early in the morning when temps are the coolest. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 A disorganized band of very light snow or flurries should continue to dissipate over central and east central WI toward midnight. Areas of stratus and fog have developed over the area that received significant snowfall earlier in the day, and expect this to expand northward overnight. Areas of dense fog will be possible in the area of fresh snow cover (including AUW/CWA), and a dense fog advisory has been posted there through mid-morning Tuesday. Conditions are less certain farther south, where many locations have improved to VFR. Suspect that SCT-BKN low clouds will still impact the GRB/ATW/MTW TAF sites overnight. Partial clearing and improving visibilities should allow flight conditions to return to VFR regionwide in the late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday, with good flying conditions persisting into the evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ020-021-031-073-074. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ018-019-030. && $$ UPDATE.........Kieckbusch SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KLJ AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
938 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 .EVENING UPDATE... At this point of the evening, low clouds are increasing a bit sooner than expected, but overall, current forecast is in decent shape, and not planning any forecast updates in the next hour or two. There`s going to have to be a good bit of airmass modification over the next 6 hours in our CWA to get thunderstorms, though. Per the 00z LIX sounding, a warm layer near 650 mb is going to inhibit any deep convection for a while. We could see some showers that could top out around 10K feet over the next few hours. The LCH 00z sounding showing that cooling is needed, but not as much as here locally, so the cooling that we`ll need for deep convection is at least several hours away. The latest runs of the HRRR do indicate that the cooling will eventually occur overnight as the moisture deepens, so the threat hasn`t diminished significantly. Would note that the low level wind fields are a little more favorable for tornadoes with the LCH 0-1 and 0-3 km helicities in excess of 300, and the LIX ones at 225. Will hold to the previous timing as noted in graphical products and social media, primarily after 3 AM CDT. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A very progressive pattern is expected in the upper levels through Thursday night as a largely zonal flow regime dominates the CONUS. Embedded within this westerly flow pattern, two vigorous upper level lows will slide from the Plains through the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. The first of these features is already impacting the area today with increasing low level moisture and gusty southeast winds. A broad and deep region of increasing omega and mid to upper level forcing will overspread the forecast area tonight in advance of this approaching upper level low, and a surface low should form over north Texas and then push east along the I-20 corridor late tonight into tomorrow. As this surface low deepens, a dry line will develop over Texas and then race to the east. Strong low level convergence along this boundary will combine with the deep layer forcing aloft to develop a band of showers and thunderstorms. The dry line and band of convection is expected to sweep through the forecast area late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow. The boundary should be clear of the eastern portions of the CWA by midday tomorrow. A review of sounding analysis at various points across the region continues to indicate that a stable layer of air will remain in place near the surface, and this will likely keep all of the convection elevated over most of the forecast area. Portions of coastal Southeast Louisiana and the offshore waters will have a better chance of surface based convection as the stable layer should be less pronounced due to the warmer nearshore waters in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches per hour and hail will be the primary concern further inland with the deepest convective cells. In the wake of the dryline and initial convective band in the morning, skies should turn partly cloudy as drier air in the mid- levels begins to advect into the region and temperatures should warm into the lower to middle 70s. In the upper levels, the core of the upper level low will pass through central Mississippi late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, and 500mb temperatures should fall to between -18 and -20C. These cold temperatures aloft will promote very steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7C/km, and these values would be supportive of widely scattered convection forming as convective temperatures in the lower to middle 70s are reached. The one ingredient that will limit overall PoP to 30 percent or less is the drier mid-level airmass advecting into the area. Lapse rates and moisture profiles are most favorable for areas north of the I-10 corridor, and this is where PoP lingers through the evening hours in the forecast before clearing by late evening. Strong negative vorticity advection associated with an shortwave ridge building in from the west on Wednesday will lead to clearing skies by the afternoon and temperatures should be near average. High pressure will linger over the region through Thursday morning, but the ridge axis will shift toward the eastern CONUS by Thursday afternoon. In the wake of the ridge, the next shortwave trough will quickly approach. A low pressure system should begin to form over Texas on Thursday, and this will result in winds shifting back to the south and increasing in speed through the day. A surge of deeper moisture into the region will accompany this onshore flow, and another band of convection should impact the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Model sounding analysis indicates that conditions may be more favorable for some surface based convection in the region with MLCAPE of 500 to 1000J/KG, and directional shear of 200 M2/S2 would support some isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity Thursday night over more coastal portions of the CWA. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...The parent upper level low driving the convection Thursday night will begin to depart on Friday, and improving conditions are expected through the day. The band of convection will likely still be impacting eastern portions of the CWA generally across coastal Mississippi and extreme coastal Southeast Louisiana Friday morning, but clearing skies and dry conditions are expected by Friday evening as a front pushes offshore and increasing dry air advection and upper level subsidence takes hold. This front will likely stall over the coastal waters on Saturday, but a secondary impulse sliding the region will push it further into the Gulf by Sunday. Fortunately, most of the forecast area will see dry conditions on Saturday as the convective activity will focused along the front over the coastal waters. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s each day. Monday is expected to be a day of transition as a longwave trough axis over the western CONUS begins to slowly move toward the Plains states. Increasingly difluent flow and more favorable jet dynamics will develop over the Gulf South, and deep layer southerly flow will usher in a progressively more humid and unstable airmass through the day. By the afternoon hours, enough moisture and instability may be in place to support isolated convective development, but overall coverage will remain somewhat limited by a persistent mid-level capping inversion. The good news is that forecast confidence is average during this period as medium range guidance is in decent agreement through early next week. AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist through at least 06z with only some mid-level cloud decks passing over the terminals. By 09z, a line of convection in advance of an approaching dry line should bring a period of IFR ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds to the terminals. This convective band should impact BTR and MCB between 09z and 12z; MSY, HUM, HDC, NEW, and ASD between 11z and 14z; GPT between 13z and 16z. Conditions should improve into MVFR range after the convective band moves through with visibilities improving to 5 to 7 miles and ceilings rising to around 1500 to 2500 feet. By the afternoon, further improvement into VFR range is expected at most of the terminals. However, lingering MVFR ceilings and the risk of isolated thunderstorms will persist at KGPT and KMCB through the afternoon hours. MARINE...A tight pressure gradient over the coastal waters will remain in place through tomorrow afternoon as a low pressure system passes north of the region. Onshore winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected to persist through tomorrow morning before shifting to a more westerly direction by the afternoon. Due to these conditions, small craft advisories have been hoisted for the open Gulf waters east of the river beginning later tonight through early tomorrow afternoon. As the low departs tomorrow night, high pressure will build in and winds should fall 5 to 10 knots from Wednesday through Thursday. Another area of low pressure will once again pass north of the waters Thursday night into Friday, and gradient flow should climb back to near or into small craft advisory levels of 15 to 25 knots for Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 55 75 51 73 / 90 80 20 0 BTR 58 75 52 73 / 90 50 10 0 ASD 58 75 52 73 / 90 90 20 0 MSY 60 73 55 71 / 90 80 10 0 GPT 59 71 54 72 / 80 90 20 0 PQL 57 72 52 73 / 60 90 30 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ555- 557-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ557- 575-577. && $$
...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Took a look at fog potential again late tonight into Tuesday morning and expanded that a bit. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 A cold front is sweeping across the area this afternoon. As of 19Z, it`s draped from Fort Dodge, IA through the Omaha and Lincoln metros and past Beatrice, NE. Behind that front, some 40s remain while the rest of the area has managed 50s with a 61 at last report from FNB. This front is moisture starved and I doubt a sprinkle was felt across the forecast area. A trof ejecting out of the Denver area this morning is diving southeast and closing off as it approaches the Gulf Coast. It`s currently in the southern stream of the split flow and is bringing some welcomed moisture to Kansas. Between it and the shortwave crossing Minnesota this afternoon, we`ve got broad ascent and have seen a vast deck of cirrus all day long. Winds, gusting to 35 mph at times this afternoon, will slow overnight and should slow enough to allow the formation of some fog. The best chance of that fog will be along a line from Wayne to Columbus where the night`s coolest temps (lowest dew point depressions) align with a change and temporary slowing of the wind field. The HREF suggests a 50-70% chance of visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. I kept fog mention as patchy in this area in the morning twilight. TUESDAY: Climbing heights, WAA, and some downslope surface flow help Tuesday`s temps rebound quickly. Expect widespread 60s with 70 possible in the far NW corner of the forecast area. This area is where fire danger is highest. Drought conditions are worse there, winds will be stronger (gusting to 30mph) and relative humidity lowest. RED FLAG WARNING criteria will be met for Knox, Pierce, Boone, and Antelope Counties. I left Cedar out, but it`ll be close. Most of the rest of the area will have very high fire danger. RAP soundings show very dry conditions from the surface to 500mb. If anything, this RFW may need to be expanded with subsequent updates. Southerly flow and continued clear skies will help propel temps higher for Wednesday with 70s filling in more real estate than on Tuesday, though shifted south ahead of the next cold front. Precip isn`t expected with this front, either, as it too is lacking available moisture. With slightly slower winds and slightly higher RH, fire danger will be a bit lower than on Tuesday. The NEXT BIG THING in the Corn Belt forecast will be the shortwave trof sweeping north and east across Oklahoma and Missouri. As has been the case for about 4 days now, the GFS continues to advertise a stronger and wetter system. This solution brings the best chance of beneficial rain to the area but is a bit of an outlier. The cluster analysis suggests the wet possibilities make up 23% of solutions and 83% of *those* are from the GFS. It`s been so consistent than I hesitate to ignore it outright, but it`s certainly on its own. The multi-model ensemble produces less than 0.10" for all but Richardson, Nemaha and Pawnee counties. Highs will be relegated to seasonal norms with widespread 50s. Expect heights and temps to climb again for a pleasant spring weekend. Mid to upper 60s are forecast for Saturday with Sunday bringing widespread 70s. Have kept NBM`s solution for widespread rain a week from today as long range deterministic guidance is on board. Let`s hope it pans out for the area`s soil, flora and fauna. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 IFR conditions with fog will be possible mainly at KOFK and KOMA where visibility may drop to 1 mile or less mostly between 11z and 15z. Could drop down to 3 miles at KLNK. Ceilings under 1000 feet also possible. Tried to not get to pessimistic and may need to adjust more with 06Z TAFs. Fog will probably burn off pretty quick 14Z to 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-016- 017-030. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
706 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 .AVIATION... A mix of low VFR/high based MVFR cigs is expected this evening, although conditions will begin to quickly deteriorate later this evening from W to E as convection continues to increase and quickly spread E across the region as a QLCS. This convection will affect the TYR/GGG/LFK terminals between 00-05Z, TXK/SHV between 02-06Z, and ELD/MLU between 05-10Z. Wind gusts to near/in excess of 35kts, reduced visibilities, and IFR cigs are possible in and near the convection, with the potential for VFR conditions returning in wake of the convection although some areas of elevated -RA may continue. However, low MVFR/IFR cigs will eventually return near or prior to 12Z as the parent upper trough closes off over the area, with these cigs lingering over the area through much of Tuesday. Some wrap-around -SHRA will be possible over portions of SE OK/extreme Ern TX/SW AR/N LA during the day, affecting all but the E TX terminals, with a slow improvement of cigs to MVFR expected by mid-afternoon across SW AR/N LA, with little improvement expected through the evening into Tuesday night. SE winds 6-12kts with gusts to 20 kts over E TX will become VRB with the passage of the convection later this evening/overnight. Winds will eventually become WNW around 10kts over Lower E TX/Cntrl LA after 12Z, and remain VRB or N 5-10kts over NE TX/SW AR/extreme Nrn LA. /15/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/ A vigorous upper level trough continues to deepen across the Southern Plains into far west Texas this afternoon and this feature will be the key player in an outbreak of at least strong thunderstorms across our region later this evening into the overnight hours. The lower levels are taking their time with returning moisture advection and this is the one thing from making this severe weather risk a much higher one across our region. Of course without significant moisture advection, instability really struggles to get going but the deep layer shear and low level directional shear is there for the development of surface based discrete storms across a narrow corridor of mainly Northeast Texas which could result in an isolated tornado/large hail threat if and when a capping inversion can be overcome later today into this evening. There does appear to be a narrow window of opportunity for this to occur in the 00-03z timeframe as the instability axis that sets up to our west may remain sufficient enough as it nudges eastward into our portions of Northeast Texas along a returning pseudo-warm front. This window is rather narrow as eventual storm mode will transition into a QLCS where wind would become the main threat into more of Northern Louisiana and perhaps Southwest Arkansas. Latest CAMS and HRRR outrun the other lower res progs once this QLCS forms so confidence in timing is not as great as it should be with this forecast but the faster timing of the higher res progs does make sense if the QLCS can develop on time by late this evening. The severe weather threat should end across our far eastern zones early Tuesday Morning but it does appear that the upper trough will become cutoff somewhat as it moves ovhd on Tuesday from the west and if there has been a trend in the short term progs, it has been for the dynamics associated with this trough to hold back more precipitation underneath it and have continued this trend with this current package, especially near and north of the I-20 Corridor during the day on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday as well given the steep lapse rates accompanying the upper trough. We should finally lose the precipitation across our far eastern zones Tuesday Night as the upper trough slowly spins east of our region. 13 && .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/ Surface high pressure, along with upper level ridging, will be in place over the region by the start of the long-term forecast period. This should yield dry weather and near normal temperatures on Wednesday, with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the lower 70s. But, an upper trough will dig southeastward into the Southern Plains on Thursday, dragging a cold front across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region ahead of this system by Thursday evening, before clearing out with the passage of the cool front. At this time, the chance for severe weather appears low, due to the limited amount of instability and low-level moisture. Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will return across the region behind the aforementioned system, bringing near normal temps and dry weather by Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Dry weather will remain on Sunday, but the sfc high will slide east of the region. This will allow for warmer temps, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s. The flow aloft will transition to southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, ahead of another upper long- wave trough and cold front ejecting into the Plains. Thunderstorm chances will return to the region by Monday morning ahead of this system, but some uncertainty remains in regards to timing. However, guidance continues to hint at a severe weather possibility across the region Monday night into Tuesday. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 52 65 47 70 / 90 40 20 0 MLU 53 68 50 70 / 90 50 30 0 DEQ 49 65 42 71 / 90 60 10 0 TXK 53 63 48 71 / 90 60 10 0 ELD 50 63 46 71 / 90 60 20 0 TYR 49 65 46 72 / 90 20 10 0 GGG 49 65 46 72 / 90 30 10 0 LFK 48 66 47 74 / 90 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 15