Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/13/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1039 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue tonight as a much colder air
mass moves in, with some locally heavy bands. Strong northwest
winds will create significant blowing and drifting of snow
overnight. Temperatures will fall into the lower teens and
upper single digits tonight with wind chills of 0 to 10 below.
Sunday will still be cold with highs around freezing. Some
afternoon light snow showers are possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1035 PM Update...
Bands of lake effect snow continue across much of central NY,
with brief heavy snow, but the main problem through tonight will
be winds gusting over 35 mph creating significant blowing and
drifting of snow. Winter Weather Advisories were posted a while
back to deal with the lake effect snow and blowing snow
hazards.
Shortwave trough moving through is starting to cause LES bands
to break away from the low level flow, and they`re making a run
for the Twin Tiers. Expect these bands to diminish as they
drift SE after Midnight. The bands currently re-developing over
the northern Finger Lakes, Onondaga, and Madison Counties should
flare up in time and become the predominant bands after
Midnight.
215 PM Update...
The best forcing has moved east of us but some weaker (relative to
this morning) 700-500 mb fgen will still create some areas of
heavier synoptic snowfall across NEPA into the southern Catskills
through about 4 pm. Lake effect snow showers have also developed
across much of CNY and with some light stratiform snow still
falling, there has been some seeder feeder action going on with the
lake effect snow showers resulting in some intense pockets of snow.
Winds have been gusty and will strengthen into the afternoon and
early evening as CAA continues helping keep the low level lapse
rates steep. There is even a chance for some snow squalls this
afternoon with the steep lapse rates and forecast soundings showing
CAPE getting to 30-60 across CNY late this afternoon into early
evening.
Favorable conditions exist for lake effect snow tonight across the
eastern Finger lakes, especially for the higher elevations just
south of Syracuse and NW of Cortland. Boundary layer RH will still
be high upstream of Lake Ontario along with 850 mb temps falling
below -15C makes for high lake effect CAPE. Shear will be a bit too
high for really organized bands but widespread heavy snow showers
look more likely. Snow totals with the lake effect looks to be in
the 4-6 inch range around Tully with 2-4 inches in the lake plain.
Winds shift more W early tomorrow morning with a ridge of high
pressure building in, ending the lake effect around mid morning for
the NY thruway corridor.
For tonight`s low temperatures will be cold but likely not quite to
daily record lows though there is some uncertainty, especially in
NEPA where there is a better chance of clouds clearing and a fresh
snow pack. Steep low level lapse rates should keep the atmosphere
well mixed keeping the lows in the teens in NEPA but there could be
some sheltered valley that could decouple and radiate down to a
temperature much lower than forecast. Ensemble spreads in low temps
across NEPA valleys tonight were near 8 degrees so stuck with
slightly lower than the mean of the ensembles by blending in the
HRRR (coldest model) with the NBM 50%. Across the southern Tier and
north, lake effect clouds and snow showers will keep radiational
cooling to a minimum and low temps were kept from the NBM as it made
sense with mixing down from 925 mb.
A brief ridge of high pressure builds in Sunday morning with the
clouds clearing briefly before filling back in ahead of another
shortwave moving in. Isentropic lift associated with weak 850-700 mb
WAA leads to increasing chances of precipitation in the afternoon
though it was largely kept to a chance at most. Forecast soundings
dont show much of a saturated layer in the DGZ with fairly dry low
levels so it will be tough to get the snow to reach the ground, much
less accumulate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM update...
With the lake effect coming to an end in the early morning hours,
Monday starts out dry. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny through
around midday. An increase of moisture will drop south, increasing
sky cover from the north in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb
into the 40s and 50s, kicking off a warming trend for the rest of
the week. Overnight, a weak cold front that extends from eastern
Quebec and across the Great Lakes begins to drop south. However, it
looks like precipitation will hold off until Tuesday morning, so
PoPs were limited to a slight chance for far northern Oneida County
where a rain/snow mix is possible. Overnight temps fall into into
the 30s with the majority of the region staying above freezing.
The cold front approaches the region Tuesday morning bringing some
light rain showers for northern portions of the Finger Lakes and
Mohawk Valley with snow mixing in until temperatures warm up. The
front continues to drop south by the afternoon resulting a chance of
rain showers over CNY. A shortwave trough moves through Tuesday
night, stalling the boundary and pushing the showers eastward,
keeping NEPA and the Catskills mostly dry. East of I-81 will have
the best chance for any lingering showers during the first half of
Tuesday night as the showers move out of the region. Snow may mix in
as well due to the slightly cooler air the moved in behind the front.
High temps on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s once again. With
colder air now over the region, temps fall below freezing into the
overnight, with the Wyoming Valley staying just above freezing.
Still, temps will only drop into the upper 20s elsewhere. Skies will
also begin to clear out as high pressure and drier air move into the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM update...
For the second half of the work week, a broad ridge of high
pressure will move through the region, bringing warm
temperatures and dry weather. Highs in the 50s are expected
through the end of the week, with 60s also possible, especially
Thursday and Friday. Lows will be above freezing, with temps in
the 30s and up to the mid 40s. A weak front will bring a slight
chance for some rain showers Thursday night along the Thruway
corridor. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected until the
weekend, when things become more uncertain. Models have a
deepening trough over the Central US with a surface low
eventually developing. This system moves into the Northeast, but
there is some uncertainty on the timing and track of this
system. The GFS is much faster than other guidance, bringing the
system through on Saturday but most other guidance is slower
and would impact the region beyond this forecast period. For
now, the NBM was used for PoPs with adjustments to cap them off
at chance for Friday night and low-end likely for Saturday. For
ptypes, this forecast favors the warmer model solutions and has
just rain for the beginning of this system.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 pm update...
Lake effect snow is causing restrictions at all sites. MVFR
predominant with tempos for IFR vsbys and fuel alternate MVFR
cigs. The lake effect will slowly diminish this evening so only
BGM/ITH will be left with MVFR cigs after 06z. The lake effect
then lifts northeast through RME between 12 and 15z with IFR
vsby and MVFR cigs at times.
From around 19z CNY sites will have light snow and MVFR
cigs/vsbys while AVP should stay VFR with flurries.
Northwest winds at 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 30 this
evening drop to 10 with gusts to 20 late tonight and shift to
west. Sunday afternoon southwest winds at 10 gusting to 20 kts.
Outlook...
Sunday evening...possible continued MVFR.
Sunday overnight through Monday night...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, but restrictions are
possible in stray rain and snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ015-
022>024-055-056-062.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ016>018-
025-036-037-044>046-057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MPH/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/BJT
AVIATION...TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
517 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
A sunny sky and unseasonably cold conditions continued into the
early afternoon hours. Cool high pressure was centered across
Iowa. Temperatures had only rebounded into the teens to mid 20s
through 2 pm, about 15 to 20 degrees below normal for the date.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
Key message:
1. Another clipper tonight with potential for light precipitation.
2. Much warmer Sunday.
Discussion:
Yet another clipper system will traverse the region tonight. Hi-
res model progs indicate light snow/flurries clipping the far
northeast portion of the forecast area, with little or no
accumulation. One potential concern: the HRRR has shown a
persistent signal for some light freezing rain farther south
through the Interstate 80 corridor. This is a low probability
event, but will pass concerns along to next shift to monitor
through the evening. Expect evening lows in the upper teens/low
20s, before the stronger SW winds kick in and produce rising temps
during the early morning.
On Sunday, mild W/SW winds will boost temperatures back above
normal, with highs mainly in the 50 to 55 degree range. This will
take care of any lingering snow cover across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
Key messages:
1. Temperatures warming back above normal.
2. Continued uncertainty on late week system.
Discussion:
Expect another mild day on Monday with highs in the 50s. Another
weak boundary will move through the area Monday night with little
in the way of moisture to work with. Have maintained the slight
chance pops for light rain across the southeast counties.
The warming trend will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs
warming mainly into the 60s in southwest flow aloft. The next
system is expect to impact the region late Thursday through
Friday. Still plenty of uncertainly regarding how much of our
forecast area will be affected. There are the typical differences
in deterministic synoptic models and ensembles, with the
CMC/ECMWF impacting the south, and the GFS the entire area. This
will be the main focus of attention through the coming week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
VFR weather will continue through Sunday evening, with winds being
the primary concern. Prior shift felt strongly the vector
difference between the breezy south winds at the surface
(12g24kts) overnight and winds aloft around 2000 / 40 kts, will
not sufficient for LLWS, and I see data that continues to support
that. However, it will be close, and LLWS may be added if winds
are lower at the surface overnight than forecast. Otherwise, look
for winds Sunday to turn to the soutwest at the surface, and lower
back to the 10 to 15 kt range.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS
VFR conditions are forecast for the area terminals with a southeast
to south wind flow prevailing through the period. Late evening, winds
are forecast to relax and become light and variable across the I-35
airports through at least 15Z Sunday. Then, the southerly wind flow
increases as mixing take place with gusts of 15 to 25 knots mainly
during the afternoon. Winds across KDRT are forecast to stay around 6
to 8 knots overnight and pickup mid to late Sunday morning into the
afternoon period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
RAP analysis depicts a 1033mb sfc high centered over S TX today,
with clear skies in place and winds slowly beginning their shift
back towards the SSE as the high gradually moves off to our east
along the Gulf Coast. After a cold spring morning, recovery back
into the 50s for most folks was relatively swift owing to the
beneficial sun angle. Very dry air is in place at the surface with
dew points ranging from near 0 degrees to about the mid teens. This
is translating to RH in the teens and lower 20s. Wind speeds will
generally remain below 7 mph today, except across Val Verde County
where speeds may increase to as high as 10-13 mph briefly this
afternoon. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions remain
possible there for a couple hours this afternoon.
Tonight will HOPEFULLY be the last freeze of the season for most of
south-central Texas. With the dry air and clear skies remaining in
place and winds light to calm, we do expect lows to dip into the mid
and upper 20s in the valleys of the Hill Country, and a light freeze
will be possible across the majority of the rest of the region. The
only locations not currently forecast to freeze tonight are along
the Rio Grande and in portions of the Austin/San Antonio city
centers. But even in the cities we can`t completely rule out some
low-lying areas briefly dipping to 32 or below Sunday morning. On
the bright side, there`s one less hour of tonight with the return to
DST imminent.
Increasing southerlies will gradually bring some better surface
moisture to the region through the short term, and dew points should
return to the 40s to near 50 for most locations by the end of the
period Sunday morning. Expect a beautiful end to the weekend with
high temperatures in the 60s (near 70 far southwest) Sunday, only
falling into the 40s to near 50 overnight. Worth mentioning again is
that wind speeds in the afternoon over the Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau will increase into the 10-20 mph range in the
afternoon, and with MinRH in the 20s in the afternoon there will
again be concerns for elevated to near-critical fire weather.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Monday will trend warmer with moderate southerly breezes as surface
low pressure develops along the Red River to the north as an upper
level trough digs into the central-northern half of the state. With
our region in the warm sector ahead of the storm system, afternoon
highs climb into the mid to upper 70s and low to mid 80s. The storm
system will push a cold front into the region from late afternoon
into Monday night. There may be enough lift to allow for a band of
convection to establish along and east of highway 281 with greatest
chances over our far eastern counties. The NAM is the most bullish
on formation of a line across the Hill Country, which sweeps across
the region while the global guidance establish the line further to
the east. If a line does establish across the region, thermodynamic
and shear profiles may be enough with MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg along
with sufficient bulk shear for an isolated strong to severe storm or
two. The Day 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights a marginal
risk for our eastern zones, including Georgetown to near the Austin
metro, Bastrop and La Grange. Rain chances quickly end behind the
possible line as moderately breezy northwesterly winds advect drier
air into the region. Little cold air advection is associated with
this front but anticipate for the temperatures with the dry air to
trend a few degrees cooler from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday and Thursday will trend warmer with highs back into the
80s with the return and increase of southerly winds across the low-
levels ahead of the next upper level system advancing into/across
the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest. As the trough
advances east-northeastward late Thursday into early Friday, expect
for a weak cold front to move into and across the region. Latest
model guidance keeps the passage of the front mainly dry with the
greatest lift to the north. Best chances for precipitation look to
concentrate north and east of our area as a result. Dry air will
filter into the region behind the front with moderate to breezy
north winds. Again, not much cold air advection with this front,
with temperatures only a couple of degrees cooler from Friday into
early Saturday.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may develop at
times during the afternoons for portions of the region in the long
term given the combination of dry fuels, low humidity values and
moderate to breezy winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 34 67 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 - 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 30 67 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 - 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 30 68 48 80 49 / 0 0 - - 20
Burnet Muni Airport 29 65 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 - 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 34 69 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 30 67 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 - 20
Hondo Muni Airport 28 69 47 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 29 67 47 80 48 / 0 0 - - 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 31 67 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 10 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 33 66 49 79 51 / 0 0 - - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 33 69 51 81 51 / 0 0 - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...17
Long-Term...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
237 PM PST Sat Mar 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy south to southwest winds linger into Sunday for portions of
interior northern California. Light showers possible tonight
into early Sunday morning. Dry for Sunday afternoon and early
morning with renewed shower chances for most of the region by late
Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies across
the region this afternoon. Temperatures are also mild with the
60s and 70s in the Valley. Winds have picked up for some with a
southerly breezy gusting 20 to 25 mph in the Sacramento Valley as
of 2:00 pm this afternoon. Also as of 2:00 pm light radar returns
over the northern Coastal Range associated with an approaching
shortwave trough from the west. Ensemble guidance is in good
agreement little to no impact are anticipated due to the forecast
passing showers. The NAM 3K and HRRR show most of the precip will
fall over the Coastal Range before reaching interior portions of
Northern California. Some lingering showers could bring light
accumulations. Currently we have little to no measurable precip
expected in the Valley. Snow amounts will also be light, generally
1 to 3 inches of snow is expected with this system with best
chances north of I-80. Snow levels are forecast to be around 4500
to 5500 feet. Breezy winds over the Sierra are anticipated to
continue into early Sunday with the breeziest locations likely
along and east of the crest. Gusts of 35 to 50 mph are forecast,
locally higher for wind prone areas. Breezy conditions in the
Valley are forecast to decrease overnight. Ridging briefly build
into the region leading to dry conditions into at least the first
half of the day on Monday.
Ensembles are increasing in confidence that an upper-level trough
will bring renewed chances for valley and foothill rain showers
and mountain snow showers late monday into Tuesday. IVT analysis
shows at least some moisture streaming over Northern California
early next week. Ensemble guidance is also in agreement this is
not looking to be a very impactful system with only a few inches
of snow anticipated at pass levels. Precip chances will be
widespread with Valley locations possibly getting some precip with
0 to 0.25 inches currently forecast. Some upper foothill
locations could see close to an inch. Current forecast NBM 6hr
guidance shows about a 70% chance for at least some measurable
precip in the Sacramento area in the overnight hours around
midnight Monday/Tuesday morning. This may finally end our dry
streak in downtown Sacramento.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Ridging builds back into the region mid-week with mild
temperatures and dry conditions anticipated. Some indication a
shortwave could bring some passing clouds to the region around
the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe with the region likely remaining
dry. Another trough is forecast to approach the West Coast by the
weekend bringing some shower chances back to interior Northern
California. Stay tuned for updates!
&&
.AVIATION...
Localized MVFR conditions possible in scattered showers 06-18z
Sunday for the Valley north of KMYV and over the mountains.
Otherwise, VFR conditions over interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Surface wind gusts up to 25-40 kts for the Northern
Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills and up to 35-50 kts over
the Sierra and Southern Cascades, locally higher in wind prone
areas. Areas of LLWS in the Northern Sacramento Valley between 21z
Saturday - 06z Sunday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$