Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
952 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Raised up pops and added very light qpf/snow amounts a cross a minor portion of wet central Kansas for early Tuesday morning, based on HRRR trends and the GFS/00zNam. There will be the cusp of a 400 mb PV anomaly moving through the region. The models have heavily favored the area north of Highway 400 for a bullseye of light QPF in a zone of 15:1 - 10:1 slrs, assuming anything from a trace to something around half inch centered around Scott City. The higher confidence bet is a tight gradient ensures only clouds farther south of Garden City to the State line with OK. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 A night of good radiational cooling can be expected given the light winds and clear skies as temperatures fall into the teens by 3 am. However, mid level cloud will thicken up toward morning as an upper level disturbance approaches; and this may result in steady or rising temperatures after 3 am. Expect temperatures to rise at least into the upper 40s Tuesday afternoon given some sunny breaks and a wind shift to the southwest. Slightly warmer lows in the lower 20s are forecast for Tuesday night given the milder air mass and an increase in mid level cloud in advance of the next upper level storm system. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 There is still some uncertainty in where the mid level baroclinic zone will set up in advance of the aforementioned system Wednesday night into early Friday. The models and their respective ensembles indicate that the band of heavier snow will probably be from just north of I-70 northward, with lighter snows father south. However, a change by 50 miles could result in a farther south solution like the operational GFS and GEM. Much colder air will begin to move into western Kansas later Wednesday, with the brunt of it arriving by Wednesday night and Thursday and persisting into early Friday. There could be a strong temperature gradient along I-70 Wednesday afternoon along the front. A warming trend can be expected after Friday morning as 500mb heights rise and the mid level flow becomes more zonal. This will generally allow for lower sea level pressure values in the lee of the Rockies and milder weather. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s by Saturday and near 70 by Sunday. However, any snow cover lingering into the weekend would slow the warm up. The most likely place for a delayed warm up is along I-70 where more snow is expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 An increase in mainly VFR category, or possibly some MVFR cloud cover is likely early Tuesday as a wave moves over the already very cold air in place. HRRR model fields are hinting at a very narrow axis of light precipitation with the saturated soundings layers firmly in the dendritic zone. Any axis of briefly reduced visibility will be hard to know at this timescale out (12-15 hours away), and the 12 Z TAF should have a much better idea, as it`s likely the narrow areas of 1-2 mile vsby in -sn would miss the TAF sites entirely. Surface winds are expected to remain light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 20 49 21 53 / 10 10 0 10 GCK 20 49 21 52 / 10 40 0 10 EHA 18 51 22 58 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 20 50 19 58 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 20 49 20 44 / 10 20 0 30 P28 22 49 22 54 / 10 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Russell SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
855 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 The 00z NAM/GFS/GEM models are a little bolder now in producing some light snow after midnight through Tuesday morning for areas generally south of Interstate 70. Snowfall amounts look to be up to an inch or so. This is within an area of higher 850-500mb relative humidity ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Have increased pops to high chance at the moment and will monitor for further adjustments. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates short wave trough impacting the four corners region with another, more pronounced short wave trough diving south into Montana and Idaho. At the surface, weak surface ridge was in place across much of the Central High Plains, leading to generally light winds, especially over recent snowpack. Four corners short wave trough will be forced to the east and graze the southern portion of the area. While soundings do show some saturation aloft, weak forcing and dry low levels makes me think that system will be little more than mid level clouds and perhaps a few flurries but overall impact will be small. Otherwise with light winds, snowpack and an already cold start to the evening expect temperatures to quickly fall into the teens before westerly flow picks up and keeps temperatures relatively steady. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a relatively quiet period before next storm system. Area will be in between the departing short wave trough to the southeast and approaching system from the north. Expect increasing cloud cover and winds to become northerly as cold front builds into the area late in the afternoon and into the early evening. Expect warm air advection to increase atop the frontal zone towards sunrise Thursday morning, which will begin a prolonged period of winter precipitation to the region. Wednesday...Main concern for the entire forecast period will be how next system develops over the area and the resulting snow/blowing snow that will occur. In general terms expect precipitation to begin as snow north of frontal zone which should stall somewhere around Interstate 70 during the morning hours. Widespread warm air advection and a decent feed of 2-2.5 g/kg mixing ratios will surge north above the frontal zone leading to a large area of stratiform snow by late afternoon. At least initially, dendritic growth zone does not look to be maximized with forcing so anticipate snow ratios being near or below during the afternoon Wednesday. Potential for heavy snow will be tied to development of frontal band as H7-H65 frontal zone should have a favorable static stability and wind profile to promote strong bands of precipitation near this front. While potential for heavy snow is certainly there, reliance on convective processes gives me pause with respect to the predictability of these more intense bands. CIPS analogs further support this thought as probabilities of warning level snow are low given similar patterns. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 154 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 The long term period continues to start off with below average temperatures and snow during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. The rest of the period looks to be warming back towards above average temperatures though snowpack and potential shortwaves could impact that. For Wednesday night, snow is expected to continue through the overnight hours. As the temperatures get colder, SLRs are expected to increase and increase how much snow is falling. However, there is concern over placement and timing as guidance continues to be inconsistent. Guidance over the past couple of days has been trending the surface low and front further south which is also bringing the higher snow amounts south with it. This in part seems to be partly due to guidance slowing the passage of the upper level trough and tilting it more positively. With this, features are forming later and further south. Snow remains likely for the area with most of the area seeing stratiform snow during the evening/overnight hours, but amounts and potential for higher amounts remain in question since guidance has been inconsistent with the area and as the short term mentioned, there could be smaller scale features that locally enhance snowfall. Finally, winds could gust as high as 35 mph around or before midnight so blowing snow could contribute to lowered visibility. Wind speeds and gusts have been trending down so blizzard conditions aren`t likely but there could be near zero visibility at times. Thursday, expect a cold start with wind chills in the negatives across the area as lows drop into the single digits with northerly winds around 10-20mph. The rest of the day will be cold as snow is forecasted to linger (though snow could clear out early as shown in some solutions) and cloud cover remain across the area. Highs are forecasted to be in the teens and 20`s. Thursday night is forecasted to have cloud cover decrease as drier air moves into the area. Lows will remain cold with single digits and negatives possible. In spite of winds being slightly slower than the previous night, the cooler temperatures will assist in bringing negative wind chills to the area again. In both cases, wind chills could reach -15 or less though most solutions keep wind chills above -15. Friday through Monday is forecasted to see a general warming and drying trend as the upper level pattern transitions to a ridge in the west. Temperatures are forecasted to warm back to the 50`s and 60`s with generally sunny skies. However, as the previous discussion mentioned, any lingering snow pack from the prior days could inhibit temperatures which would likely keep them below average with highs in the 30`s/40`s. Also, a few shortwaves could move through the northwest flow and bring cloud cover to the area which would help in keeping cooler daytime highs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 420 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light southwest at speeds under 10kts is expected from taf issuance through 16z, veering to the northwest through the rest of the period at speeds approaching 10kts. KHLC...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light southwest wind at taf issuance will become west at speeds near 10kts from 16z-18z. After 19z winds continue to veer to the north at speeds around 11kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
947 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area late tonight into tomorrow morning. The front will then stall to our south, with high pressure building in from the north during the day tomorrow. An active pattern emerges mid-to-late week, with several weak coastal lows passing over or near the area ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive over the weekend. Cooler high pressure builds in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM Mon...A broken line of heavy showers capable of producing strong wind gusts was moving into the northern coastal plain counties this evening. Not observing any lightning with the showers but the showers have had a history of producing wind damage. This threat likely to continue for the next 1-2 hours mainly west of Highway 17. This activity was occurring out ahead of a cold front which was currently located over western NC. The aforementioned front is expected to cross our area late tonight, arriving over the coastal plain around 6Z and moving offshore by 12Z Tue. The best dynamics with this system will remain to our north thus expecting the shower activity to be scattered for most of the area except for the northern counties where showers will be more numerous. QPF amounts will be light with most locations receiving under a tenth of an inch. Ensuing CAA behind the boundary will bring an end to any precip activity from north to south and nudge temperatures down into the 50s for lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 355 PM Mon...The cold front will push offshore and stall tomorrow, while weakening high pressure to our north ridges into the area. Hi-res guidance continues to advertise low-end chances for a few showers to skirt the coast tomorrow closer to the frontal boundary, but otherwise dry conditions are expected with some peaks of sun especially north of New Bern. With NE flow, NOBX will be the cool spot in the low to mid 50s while west of Highway 17 temperatures will climb into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Mon...Troughing over the central US persists through much of the coming week, with a series of shortwaves in the SW flow aloft lifting across the eastern US. The active pattern continues into the weekend, when the primary trough axis crosses the area, and quieter weather ensues for early next week. Tuesday Night through Sunday...Very active pattern for the remainder of the week, with a persistent train of weaker waves traversing along a front that will linger near the area. Strong model agreement that the first wave will bring rainfall to the area late Tuesday through Wednesday. A brief lull in the precip is possible Wednesday night before the next wave/coastal low brings more rainfall Thursday. Inland ridging dominates Friday, with mainly dry and cool conditions. Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches possible through the mid to late week timeframe, which will be beneficial given that much of eastern NC is in a drought. Temps will mainly be near normal along the coast, and below normal inland where at least weak CAD will likely develop Wednesday into Friday. Saturday through Monday...Low pressure lifting across the Northeast will bring a strong cold front through the area Saturday, with stronger dynamic lift bringing the week`s greatest threat of heavy rainfall and stronger storms. Strong colder high pressure building in Sunday through early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 605 PM Mon...Considerable uncertainty on whether prevailing sub VFR conditions develop overnight with the frontal passage and ensuing scattered shower activity. GLAMP and GFS argue for prevailing VFR with the NAM and HRRR indicating 3-5 hours of MVFR ceilings after 6Z. For now will indicate Prevailing VFR through the TAF period with a scattered MVFR deck 6-12Z with a TEMPO group possibly needed with the 6Z TAF issuance. In the near term, main concern will remain strong southwesterly winds gusting to 25 kt early this evening which will diminish after 2Z. After nightfall, a cold front will cross the airspace with a period of scattered showers along with a sharp wind shift out of the northwest after 6Z. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Mon...Several low pressure waves will pass along a front that will linger near the area mid to late week. Periods of flight restrictions are likely, especially later Tuesday through Thursday night, with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible for much of this timeframe. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/... As of 945 PM Mon...Strong southwesterly flow 20-30 kt ahead of an approaching cold front has brought widespread strong SCA conditions to all area waters this evening with 5-8 seas over the coastal waters. Dropped the last Gales to a SCA as latest high res guidance indicates winds remaining 20-30 kt and have not observed any Gale Force winds yet this evening. The cold front will cross the waters from north to south late tonight, resulting in a rapid wind shift from southwest to north. The northerly surge will bring a couples hours of 20-25 kt SCA force winds across most waters pre-dawn before subsiding and veering more easterly as high pressure ridges in from the north. Seas will be slow to fall, and any window of non-SCA seas will be short lived before the next low begins to spin up late Tuesday into Wednesday. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Mon...Moderate winds 10-20 kt prevail Tuesday night through late week, with winds varying dependent on timing of several waves of weak low pressure passing within the front that will linger over or near the waters into the weekend. Seas mainly 4 to 6 ft through mid to late week in a mix of NE and S medium period swell and modest local windswell. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 03/07 (Monday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 74/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/1974 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ131-136- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...JME/CB/MS MARINE...JME/CB/MS CLIMATE...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
609 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Outside of a brief warmup Tuesday, well below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday. - Light snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday from south central MN into western WI. Rest of today and tonight - A quick look out of the window could fool you today. We`re greeted by clear, blue skies and warmth of late Winter sunshine but the warm thoughts end there thanks to the fresh blanket of snow and brisk northwest wind. High temperature across the area will reach into the mid to near 30 (with a normal of 37 at MSP). A ridge axis moves into the Great Lakes, with our surface winds turning out of the southwest, with temperatures gradually warming after midnight. These southwest winds develop out ahead of a cold front that will move across the MPX area during the late morning and early afternoon on Tuesday. This fropa timing will allow areas along and southeast of a line from St. James to Ladysmith to make a run into the upper 30s to lower 40s, but strong CAA in the wake of the front looks to stall out the warming during the afternoon. Precip chances don`t look great with the front as the shortwave driving it remains in Canada and the atmospheric column looks dry. However, the RAP extension shows a narrow band of moisture and fgen in the h7-h6 layer working out of SoDak toward western WI, with the NAMnest, HRRR, and other cams developing a narrow band of snow with this forcing, so I have a narrow band of slight chances moving across much of our area to account for this possibility. Wednesday through Friday, the primary weather feature will be a positively tilted long wave trough working across central NOAM. Much like tonight, we`ll see a deformation band of snow move out of the Rockies toward the Great Lakes as a potent shortwave moves through the longwave trough. The most guidance has followed the southeast trend that will keep this snow southeast of the entire MPX CWA. I`ve decided to nudge NBM PoPs down some, which were already slightly lower than the previous forecast, to remove confine the slight chc mentions to along Interstate 90. This adjustment lines up nicely with the 12Z model suite. The chances are we don`t get snow, but it will be cold, with highs Thursday and Friday running better than 20 degrees below normal, with sub-zero lows possible Friday and Saturday mornings, especially up across central MN. Saturday through Monday, we`ll see the northwest flow flatten out in the wake of the positively tilted through. Saturday will still be cold, but by Sunday, temperatures are expected to moderate back closer to normal and stay there into next week. This type of flow also tends to lend itself to seeing quick hitting shortwaves and the next one to keep an eye will come Sunday night. Though we have the expected spread this far out in where this wave and its associated band of snow goes, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all show something capable of producing at least a couple inches of snow somewhere in the upper MS Valley Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 609 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Narrow band of MVFR cigs across western MN is dissipating early this evening, but is currently impacting AXN and could impact STC for a brief time this evening. Winds will back southerly tonight, then shift west behind a cold front Tuesday with an increase in clouds. KMSP...No concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. Thu...VFR. Wind W 5 kts. Fri...MVFR possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...Borghoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
644 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022 Latest RAP analysis shows Upper Michigan in NW flow with a sfc ridge of high pressure building upstream across northern MN and a passing sfc low across the Lower Great Lakes. With 850mb temps near -13C, there`s not much in the way of lake-effect clouds, but most of the clouds and sct -shsn across Upper Michigan is diurnally-driven; however, we did see some high clouds move over the central and eastern portions of the UP as the sfc low passed to our south. As we head into the evening hours, expect diurnal -shsn and clouds to diminish, leaving behind clearing skies. Tonight, with a sfc ridge moving across the area and the mixing seen today, should be in store for some clearing. Models want to suggest lower-level clouds will redevelop tonight, but conceptually this doesn`t quite fit the mold...and we are getting into the time of year where models handle clouds poorly in the Upper Great Lakes. Later in the night, winds back to the SW with light WAA beginning. With the lighter winds and clear skies early on, should see temps fall into the single digits abv zero to around 10 along the lakes. Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with temps climbing into the mid to upper 30s. Model 850mb temps near -7C isn`t too warm, but with amble sunshine in the morning and aftn, and increasing SW winds as a cold front and trof approaches, model soundings suggest sufficient mixing. Towards the evening, this cold front will approach the western UP, with just an isolated chance at a snow shower across the far west by 00Z. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 254 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022 A cold front moves through Tuesday night with below normal temperatures persisting through the end of the week. Below normal precip is expected outside of areas impacted by lake effect snow late Friday into Sunday. A line of snow showers should accompany Tuesday nights cold front with some light lake effect snow showers/flurries lingering through Wednesday. Little if any accumulation is expected, but LES could ramp up Wednesday night for West to WNW wind snow belts as 850 mb temps cool to near or below -20C. Clear skies today provided the first good look at ice cover on the lake since the last storm system moved through and it seems like ice coverage decreased by ~20%. As a result, there is enough open water to boost LES PoPs into slight chances for the WNW belts Wednesday night in Thursday. Model guidance is in better agreement with the major late week winter storm taking an Appalachian runner storm track, which is too far southeast for substantial impacts in our area. As a result, late Thursday into Friday is the best chance for synoptic scale snowfall, mainly across the east half. These snow chances are associated with a negatively tilted but low amplitude shortwave riding along the frontal boundary that passed through our area Tuesday night. Recent model guidance seems to have trended south with this feature and there`s a stout mid-level dry layer that needs to be saturated before snowfall reaches the ground so PoPs may be too high. A lobe of the polar vortex appears to track overhead midday Friday into Friday night when the tropopause falls below 500 mb. It`s still too early to speculate about impacts, but lake enhancement or organized lake effect snow bands are certainly possible. Lake effect snow should continue on Saturday while backing more northwesterly. Temperatures appear to warm quickly early next week as a clipper- like system approaches from the west. Northwest flow aloft appears to continue into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 643 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022 Any lingering lake effect snow showers have tapered off with the infiltration of drier air into the region. So, VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Meanwhile, northwest winds will back to the WSW, generally sustained at 5 to 10 kts through mid-morning tomorrow. At that point, they will increase to 10 to 13 sustained with gusts up to 24 kts. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 226 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022 Northwest winds to around 25 knots across the east half today will become light as they back to the SW as a sfc ridge moves over the lake. Winds will then increase from the SW to around 30 knots on Tuesday as a trough and associated cold front approach the lake. Although increasing stability should keep winds around or below 30 knots, a few gale force gusts to 35 knots can be expected at the higher observation platforms. Winds will become more westerly on Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 knots continuing. By Wednesday evening, a sfc high pressure system will start to shift over the lake from the Northern Plains, bringing winds back blo 20 knots by Thursday morning. The next chance for stronger winds will then come on Friday night into Saturday, as a sfc low passes to the SE of the lake and rapidly strengthens over New England. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...EK AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 .UPDATE... No major updates are needed to the afternoon forecast package at this time. Simply updated the diurnal curve using observations, and some high-res guidance. /44/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/ AVIATION... VFR conditions should prevail into the early morning hours tomorrow, before MVFR skies return by 08/12z. Precipitation chances will also increase area wide into tomorrow, with reduced visibilities possible with any of the heavier activity. As cloud cover continues to thicken, IFR ceilings are likely past 08/18z as some of the heavier precipitation enters the region. /44/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/ The latest mid-level RAP analysis indicates the area in a southwesterly flow well ahead of a 500mb trough that extends the Four Corners region northeastward into the central Plains. Mid- level moisture is still lingering in the 800-600mb layer in addition to a thin layer of moisture at the surface. GOES satellite imagery shows this layer of moisture moving to the northeast across the area with mostly cloudy skies across much of the area. At the surface, a 1000mb low is located over the Ohio Valley with a cold front extending southwest of this feature across the Tennessee Valley into the Mississippi Valley. Locally, in the wake of the aforementioned cold front, northwesterly are observed across our four state region. Cold air advection is in full effect in a low-level northwesterly flow. In cold air advection, a few bands of light rain showers are pushing across the area. Showers have mostly diminished across the area with radar indicating only isolated light showers or sprinkles remaining. This evening and tonight, high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest, pushing into the southern Plains and the Missouri Valley. Meanwhile, a surface low and inverted trough will develop off the Texas coast. The first round of showers and sprinkles will come to an end by this evening. Then the high along with a mostly dry deep layer of air aloft tonight will contribute to a dry night with an area of clearing for much of the night before cloud coverage increases again the morning. On Tuesday, the area will remain in a southwesterly mid-level flow as the surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico further develops and moves northeastward to the TX/LA coasts. The inverted trough with this feature will provide forcing and low-level moisture will be on the increase, returning rain to much of the area. Hi-res models indicate that scattered to numerous to showers will push into the area from the south by late morning, covering much of the ArkLaTex and surrounding areas by Tuesday afternoon. Elevated instability (MUCAPE around 500 J/KG) will contribute to isolated embedded thunderstorms possible in the morning in Deep East Texas and then across East Texas and northern Louisiana into the afternoon. The NAM 3km is outputting an increase coverage of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the ArkLaMiss, but do not anticipate a severe threat at this time. That being said, there could be some locally heavy downpours contributing to a much needed quick half an inch to an inch of rainfall, especially in central Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss. Generally lighter rainfall amounts less than a half of an inch are expected further to the northwest. For temperatures, GFS/NAM solutions are about 5 degrees cooler than the NBM/ECMWF solutions, so tweaked temperatures down a few degrees cooler than the NBM with highs in ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. By Tuesday night, the surface low and its association moisture and forcing will have shifted east of the area, with lingering showers mostly coming to an end by midnight. The surface high northwest of the area will then build in slightly with skies beginning to clear north of the I-30 corridor by the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy across the area. GFS/NAM again are cooler than the NBM/ECMWF and thus temperatures were tweaked a few degrees below the NBM. Lows will range from the mid 30s in southeastern Oklahoma to the lower 40s in central Louisiana. /04-Woodrum/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 39 50 41 59 / 0 90 40 10 MLU 40 50 43 57 / 10 100 80 10 DEQ 32 52 35 61 / 0 50 30 0 TXK 34 50 39 59 / 0 80 30 0 ELD 35 50 38 58 / 0 80 50 10 TYR 35 49 38 60 / 0 80 20 0 GGG 36 50 39 60 / 0 90 30 10 LFK 42 50 40 60 / 20 90 30 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 04/44
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 Key Points: - Dry and closer to seasonal next couple of days - Increasing chances for accumulating snowfall Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly into Friday morning - Much colder end to the week with Arctic air following the snow As of 20Z this afternoon, sfc high pressure has been sitting over the central US with the upper pattern showing broad troughing over the CONUS, and an approaching shortwave passing through the Four Corners region. A quiet evening is in store as the sfc high gradually slides east into Tuesday. Can`t completely rule out some fog overnight into the morning with the light winds, clear skies, and low-level moisture from the snowpack/snowmelt. However, the RAP is far more robust in showing that potential, so just something to monitor for now. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to warm to the upper 40s and low 50s Tuesday, helping the snow to melt further. The aforementioned shortwave is progged to pass just south of the area, and while a few models are showing some small areas of light QPF Tuesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be enough lift or saturation in the low levels. The main precipitation chances come mid-week with two possible waves. The first of which comes with a shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies Wednesday night, generating a sfc low on the southeast side of the Rockies. This system has shown an increasing trend in the probability of impactful snow through Thursday, especially for locations north of I-70. There is still enough difference between models on the timing and how progressive this system might be, with ensembles showing decent spread in amounts, but at this point northern areas have the better chance of seeing a few inches. The dominant p-type looks to be snow at this time, with a brief period of rain possible at the onset until early Wednesday evening when temps cool enough to support snow. However, it is worth mentioning that some guidance, namely the NAM, suggests we may get dry-slotted which would result in a loss of cloud ice during the day Thursday. If we get more of a mix of precip types, this would cut down on snow amounts as well, particularly further south. The second wave is associated with the southern stream trough that digs into northern Mexico. Most precip from this looks to stay south of the area, and the GFS suggests it misses us completely, but the slower EC suggests snow could linger into Friday morning. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the precip, what looks more certain is the push of Arctic air behind the snow, bringing another shot of cold air to end the week. Temps likely won`t warm up much on Thursday with most places struggling out of the 20s and 30s. Friday and Saturday looks to bring similar highs, but morning lows are forecast in the single digits to teens, possibly near zero on Saturday. The good news is we do see a return to zonal flow and downsloping winds by Sunday, bringing a return to warmer weather to begin next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as sfc high pressure passes overhead during the overnight period. On the backside, a developing sfc trough over the central plains backs sfc winds to the southwest near 10 kts at KMHK aft 17Z. Mid level clouds begin to increase at all sites aft 18Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...22