Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
952 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
Raised up pops and added very light qpf/snow amounts a cross a
minor portion of wet central Kansas for early Tuesday morning,
based on HRRR trends and the GFS/00zNam. There will be the cusp of a
400 mb PV anomaly moving through the region. The models have heavily
favored the area north of Highway 400 for a bullseye of light QPF in
a zone of 15:1 - 10:1 slrs, assuming anything from a trace to
something around half inch centered around Scott City. The higher
confidence bet is a tight gradient ensures only clouds farther south
of Garden City to the State line with OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
A night of good radiational cooling can be expected given the
light winds and clear skies as temperatures fall into the teens
by 3 am. However, mid level cloud will thicken up toward morning
as an upper level disturbance approaches; and this may result in
steady or rising temperatures after 3 am. Expect temperatures to
rise at least into the upper 40s Tuesday afternoon given some
sunny breaks and a wind shift to the southwest. Slightly warmer
lows in the lower 20s are forecast for Tuesday night given the
milder air mass and an increase in mid level cloud in advance of
the next upper level storm system.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
There is still some uncertainty in where the mid level baroclinic
zone will set up in advance of the aforementioned system Wednesday
night into early Friday. The models and their respective
ensembles indicate that the band of heavier snow will probably be
from just north of I-70 northward, with lighter snows father
south. However, a change by 50 miles could result in a farther
south solution like the operational GFS and GEM. Much colder air
will begin to move into western Kansas later Wednesday, with the
brunt of it arriving by Wednesday night and Thursday and
persisting into early Friday. There could be a strong temperature
gradient along I-70 Wednesday afternoon along the front. A
warming trend can be expected after Friday morning as 500mb
heights rise and the mid level flow becomes more zonal. This will
generally allow for lower sea level pressure values in the lee of
the Rockies and milder weather. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s by Saturday and near 70 by Sunday. However, any snow
cover lingering into the weekend would slow the warm up. The most
likely place for a delayed warm up is along I-70 where more snow
is expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
An increase in mainly VFR category, or possibly some MVFR cloud
cover is likely early Tuesday as a wave moves over the already very
cold air in place. HRRR model fields are hinting at a very narrow
axis of light precipitation with the saturated soundings layers
firmly in the dendritic zone. Any axis of briefly reduced visibility
will be hard to know at this timescale out (12-15 hours away),
and the 12 Z TAF should have a much better idea, as it`s likely
the narrow areas of 1-2 mile vsby in -sn would miss the TAF sites
entirely. Surface winds are expected to remain light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 20 49 21 53 / 10 10 0 10
GCK 20 49 21 52 / 10 40 0 10
EHA 18 51 22 58 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 20 50 19 58 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 20 49 20 44 / 10 20 0 30
P28 22 49 22 54 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
855 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022
The 00z NAM/GFS/GEM models are a little bolder now in producing
some light snow after midnight through Tuesday morning for areas
generally south of Interstate 70. Snowfall amounts look to be up
to an inch or so. This is within an area of higher 850-500mb
relative humidity ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Have
increased pops to high chance at the moment and will monitor for
further adjustments.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022
19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates short wave trough
impacting the four corners region with another, more pronounced
short wave trough diving south into Montana and Idaho. At the
surface, weak surface ridge was in place across much of the Central
High Plains, leading to generally light winds, especially over
recent snowpack.
Four corners short wave trough will be forced to the east and graze
the southern portion of the area. While soundings do show some
saturation aloft, weak forcing and dry low levels makes me think
that system will be little more than mid level clouds and perhaps a
few flurries but overall impact will be small. Otherwise with light
winds, snowpack and an already cold start to the evening expect
temperatures to quickly fall into the teens before westerly flow
picks up and keeps temperatures relatively steady.
Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a relatively quiet period before
next storm system. Area will be in between the departing short wave
trough to the southeast and approaching system from the north.
Expect increasing cloud cover and winds to become northerly as cold
front builds into the area late in the afternoon and into the early
evening. Expect warm air advection to increase atop the frontal zone
towards sunrise Thursday morning, which will begin a prolonged
period of winter precipitation to the region.
Wednesday...Main concern for the entire forecast period will be how
next system develops over the area and the resulting snow/blowing
snow that will occur. In general terms expect precipitation to begin
as snow north of frontal zone which should stall somewhere around
Interstate 70 during the morning hours. Widespread warm air
advection and a decent feed of 2-2.5 g/kg mixing ratios will surge
north above the frontal zone leading to a large area of stratiform
snow by late afternoon. At least initially, dendritic growth zone
does not look to be maximized with forcing so anticipate snow ratios
being near or below during the afternoon Wednesday. Potential for
heavy snow will be tied to development of frontal band as H7-H65
frontal zone should have a favorable static stability and wind
profile to promote strong bands of precipitation near this front.
While potential for heavy snow is certainly there, reliance on
convective processes gives me pause with respect to the
predictability of these more intense bands. CIPS analogs further
support this thought as probabilities of warning level snow are low
given similar patterns.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022
The long term period continues to start off with below average
temperatures and snow during the overnight hours Wednesday into
Thursday. The rest of the period looks to be warming back towards
above average temperatures though snowpack and potential shortwaves
could impact that.
For Wednesday night, snow is expected to continue through the
overnight hours. As the temperatures get colder, SLRs are expected
to increase and increase how much snow is falling. However, there is
concern over placement and timing as guidance continues to be
inconsistent. Guidance over the past couple of days has been
trending the surface low and front further south which is also
bringing the higher snow amounts south with it. This in part seems
to be partly due to guidance slowing the passage of the upper level
trough and tilting it more positively. With this, features are
forming later and further south. Snow remains likely for the area
with most of the area seeing stratiform snow during the
evening/overnight hours, but amounts and potential for higher
amounts remain in question since guidance has been inconsistent with
the area and as the short term mentioned, there could be smaller
scale features that locally enhance snowfall. Finally, winds could
gust as high as 35 mph around or before midnight so blowing snow
could contribute to lowered visibility. Wind speeds and gusts have
been trending down so blizzard conditions aren`t likely but there
could be near zero visibility at times.
Thursday, expect a cold start with wind chills in the negatives
across the area as lows drop into the single digits with northerly
winds around 10-20mph. The rest of the day will be cold as snow is
forecasted to linger (though snow could clear out early as shown in
some solutions) and cloud cover remain across the area. Highs are
forecasted to be in the teens and 20`s. Thursday night is forecasted
to have cloud cover decrease as drier air moves into the area. Lows
will remain cold with single digits and negatives possible. In spite
of winds being slightly slower than the previous night, the cooler
temperatures will assist in bringing negative wind chills to the
area again. In both cases, wind chills could reach -15 or less
though most solutions keep wind chills above -15.
Friday through Monday is forecasted to see a general warming and
drying trend as the upper level pattern transitions to a ridge in
the west. Temperatures are forecasted to warm back to the 50`s and
60`s with generally sunny skies. However, as the previous discussion
mentioned, any lingering snow pack from the prior days could inhibit
temperatures which would likely keep them below average with highs
in the 30`s/40`s. Also, a few shortwaves could move through the
northwest flow and bring cloud cover to the area which would help in
keeping cooler daytime highs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 420 PM MST Mon Mar 7 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
southwest at speeds under 10kts is expected from taf issuance
through 16z, veering to the northwest through the rest of the
period at speeds approaching 10kts.
KHLC...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
southwest wind at taf issuance will become west at speeds near
10kts from 16z-18z. After 19z winds continue to veer to the north
at speeds around 11kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
947 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area late tonight into tomorrow
morning. The front will then stall to our south, with high
pressure building in from the north during the day tomorrow. An
active pattern emerges mid-to-late week, with several weak
coastal lows passing over or near the area ahead of a strong
cold front that will arrive over the weekend. Cooler high
pressure builds in early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Mon...A broken line of heavy showers capable of
producing strong wind gusts was moving into the northern coastal
plain counties this evening. Not observing any lightning with
the showers but the showers have had a history of producing wind
damage. This threat likely to continue for the next 1-2 hours
mainly west of Highway 17. This activity was occurring out ahead
of a cold front which was currently located over western NC.
The aforementioned front is expected to cross our area late
tonight, arriving over the coastal plain around 6Z and moving
offshore by 12Z Tue. The best dynamics with this system will
remain to our north thus expecting the shower activity to be
scattered for most of the area except for the northern counties
where showers will be more numerous. QPF amounts will be light
with most locations receiving under a tenth of an inch. Ensuing
CAA behind the boundary will bring an end to any precip activity
from north to south and nudge temperatures down into the 50s
for lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Mon...The cold front will push offshore and stall
tomorrow, while weakening high pressure to our north ridges into
the area. Hi-res guidance continues to advertise low-end
chances for a few showers to skirt the coast tomorrow closer to
the frontal boundary, but otherwise dry conditions are expected
with some peaks of sun especially north of New Bern. With NE
flow, NOBX will be the cool spot in the low to mid 50s while
west of Highway 17 temperatures will climb into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Troughing over the central US persists through
much of the coming week, with a series of shortwaves in the SW
flow aloft lifting across the eastern US. The active pattern
continues into the weekend, when the primary trough axis crosses
the area, and quieter weather ensues for early next week.
Tuesday Night through Sunday...Very active pattern for the remainder
of the week, with a persistent train of weaker waves traversing
along a front that will linger near the area. Strong model agreement
that the first wave will bring rainfall to the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday. A brief lull in the precip is possible
Wednesday night before the next wave/coastal low brings more
rainfall Thursday. Inland ridging dominates Friday, with mainly
dry and cool conditions. Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches
possible through the mid to late week timeframe, which will be
beneficial given that much of eastern NC is in a drought. Temps
will mainly be near normal along the coast, and below normal
inland where at least weak CAD will likely develop Wednesday
into Friday.
Saturday through Monday...Low pressure lifting across the
Northeast will bring a strong cold front through the area
Saturday, with stronger dynamic lift bringing the week`s
greatest threat of heavy rainfall and stronger storms. Strong
colder high pressure building in Sunday through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 605 PM Mon...Considerable uncertainty on whether
prevailing sub VFR conditions develop overnight with the frontal
passage and ensuing scattered shower activity. GLAMP and GFS
argue for prevailing VFR with the NAM and HRRR indicating 3-5
hours of MVFR ceilings after 6Z. For now will indicate
Prevailing VFR through the TAF period with a scattered MVFR
deck 6-12Z with a TEMPO group possibly needed with the 6Z TAF
issuance. In the near term, main concern will remain strong
southwesterly winds gusting to 25 kt early this evening which
will diminish after 2Z. After nightfall, a cold front will cross
the airspace with a period of scattered showers along with a
sharp wind shift out of the northwest after 6Z.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Several low pressure waves will pass along a
front that will linger near the area mid to late week. Periods
of flight restrictions are likely, especially later Tuesday
through Thursday night, with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible for
much of this timeframe.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 945 PM Mon...Strong southwesterly flow 20-30 kt ahead of
an approaching cold front has brought widespread strong SCA
conditions to all area waters this evening with 5-8 seas over
the coastal waters.
Dropped the last Gales to a SCA as latest high res guidance
indicates winds remaining 20-30 kt and have not observed any
Gale Force winds yet this evening.
The cold front will cross the waters from north to south
late tonight, resulting in a rapid wind shift from southwest to
north. The northerly surge will bring a couples hours of 20-25
kt SCA force winds across most waters pre-dawn before subsiding
and veering more easterly as high pressure ridges in from the
north. Seas will be slow to fall, and any window of non-SCA seas
will be short lived before the next low begins to spin up late
Tuesday into Wednesday.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Moderate winds 10-20 kt prevail Tuesday night
through late week, with winds varying dependent on timing of
several waves of weak low pressure passing within the front that
will linger over or near the waters into the weekend. Seas
mainly 4 to 6 ft through mid to late week in a mix of NE and S
medium period swell and modest local windswell.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 03/07 (Monday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/1992 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 86/1974 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ131-136-
137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JME/CB/MS
MARINE...JME/CB/MS
CLIMATE...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
609 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Outside of a brief warmup Tuesday, well below normal temperatures
are expected through Saturday.
- Light snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday from south
central MN into western WI.
Rest of today and tonight - A quick look out of the window could
fool you today. We`re greeted by clear, blue skies and warmth of
late Winter sunshine but the warm thoughts end there thanks to the
fresh blanket of snow and brisk northwest wind. High temperature
across the area will reach into the mid to near 30 (with a normal of
37 at MSP). A ridge axis moves into the Great Lakes, with our
surface winds turning out of the southwest, with temperatures
gradually warming after midnight. These southwest winds develop out
ahead of a cold front that will move across the MPX area during the
late morning and early afternoon on Tuesday. This fropa timing will
allow areas along and southeast of a line from St. James to
Ladysmith to make a run into the upper 30s to lower 40s, but strong
CAA in the wake of the front looks to stall out the warming during
the afternoon. Precip chances don`t look great with the front as the
shortwave driving it remains in Canada and the atmospheric column
looks dry. However, the RAP extension shows a narrow band of
moisture and fgen in the h7-h6 layer working out of SoDak toward
western WI, with the NAMnest, HRRR, and other cams developing a
narrow band of snow with this forcing, so I have a narrow band of
slight chances moving across much of our area to account for this
possibility.
Wednesday through Friday, the primary weather feature will be a
positively tilted long wave trough working across central NOAM. Much
like tonight, we`ll see a deformation band of snow move out of the
Rockies toward the Great Lakes as a potent shortwave moves through
the longwave trough. The most guidance has followed the southeast
trend that will keep this snow southeast of the entire MPX CWA. I`ve
decided to nudge NBM PoPs down some, which were already slightly
lower than the previous forecast, to remove confine the slight chc
mentions to along Interstate 90. This adjustment lines up nicely
with the 12Z model suite. The chances are we don`t get snow, but it
will be cold, with highs Thursday and Friday running better than 20
degrees below normal, with sub-zero lows possible Friday and
Saturday mornings, especially up across central MN.
Saturday through Monday, we`ll see the northwest flow flatten out in
the wake of the positively tilted through. Saturday will still be
cold, but by Sunday, temperatures are expected to moderate back
closer to normal and stay there into next week. This type of flow
also tends to lend itself to seeing quick hitting shortwaves and the
next one to keep an eye will come Sunday night. Though we have the
expected spread this far out in where this wave and its associated
band of snow goes, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all show something
capable of producing at least a couple inches of snow somewhere in
the upper MS Valley Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
Narrow band of MVFR cigs across western MN is dissipating early this
evening, but is currently impacting AXN and could impact STC for a
brief time this evening. Winds will back southerly tonight, then
shift west behind a cold front Tuesday with an increase in clouds.
KMSP...No concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Fri...MVFR possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
644 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022
Latest RAP analysis shows Upper Michigan in NW flow with a sfc ridge
of high pressure building upstream across northern MN and a passing
sfc low across the Lower Great Lakes. With 850mb temps near -13C,
there`s not much in the way of lake-effect clouds, but most of the
clouds and sct -shsn across Upper Michigan is diurnally-driven;
however, we did see some high clouds move over the central and
eastern portions of the UP as the sfc low passed to our south. As we
head into the evening hours, expect diurnal -shsn and clouds to
diminish, leaving behind clearing skies.
Tonight, with a sfc ridge moving across the area and the mixing seen
today, should be in store for some clearing. Models want to suggest
lower-level clouds will redevelop tonight, but conceptually this
doesn`t quite fit the mold...and we are getting into the time of
year where models handle clouds poorly in the Upper Great Lakes.
Later in the night, winds back to the SW with light WAA beginning.
With the lighter winds and clear skies early on, should see temps
fall into the single digits abv zero to around 10 along the lakes.
Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with temps
climbing into the mid to upper 30s. Model 850mb temps near -7C isn`t
too warm, but with amble sunshine in the morning and aftn, and
increasing SW winds as a cold front and trof approaches, model
soundings suggest sufficient mixing. Towards the evening, this cold
front will approach the western UP, with just an isolated chance at
a snow shower across the far west by 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022
A cold front moves through Tuesday night with below normal
temperatures persisting through the end of the week. Below normal
precip is expected outside of areas impacted by lake effect snow
late Friday into Sunday.
A line of snow showers should accompany Tuesday nights cold front
with some light lake effect snow showers/flurries lingering through
Wednesday. Little if any accumulation is expected, but LES could
ramp up Wednesday night for West to WNW wind snow belts as 850 mb
temps cool to near or below -20C. Clear skies today provided the
first good look at ice cover on the lake since the last storm system
moved through and it seems like ice coverage decreased by ~20%. As a
result, there is enough open water to boost LES PoPs into slight
chances for the WNW belts Wednesday night in Thursday.
Model guidance is in better agreement with the major late week
winter storm taking an Appalachian runner storm track, which is too
far southeast for substantial impacts in our area. As a result, late
Thursday into Friday is the best chance for synoptic scale snowfall,
mainly across the east half. These snow chances are associated with
a negatively tilted but low amplitude shortwave riding along the
frontal boundary that passed through our area Tuesday night. Recent
model guidance seems to have trended south with this feature and
there`s a stout mid-level dry layer that needs to be saturated
before snowfall reaches the ground so PoPs may be too high.
A lobe of the polar vortex appears to track overhead midday Friday
into Friday night when the tropopause falls below 500 mb. It`s still
too early to speculate about impacts, but lake enhancement or
organized lake effect snow bands are certainly possible. Lake effect
snow should continue on Saturday while backing more northwesterly.
Temperatures appear to warm quickly early next week as a clipper-
like system approaches from the west. Northwest flow aloft appears
to continue into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022
Any lingering lake effect snow showers have tapered off with the
infiltration of drier air into the region. So, VFR conditions will
prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Meanwhile, northwest
winds will back to the WSW, generally sustained at 5 to 10 kts
through mid-morning tomorrow. At that point, they will increase to
10 to 13 sustained with gusts up to 24 kts.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 226 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022
Northwest winds to around 25 knots across the east half today will
become light as they back to the SW as a sfc ridge moves over the
lake. Winds will then increase from the SW to around 30 knots on
Tuesday as a trough and associated cold front approach the lake.
Although increasing stability should keep winds around or below 30
knots, a few gale force gusts to 35 knots can be expected at the
higher observation platforms. Winds will become more westerly on
Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 knots continuing. By Wednesday
evening, a sfc high pressure system will start to shift over the
lake from the Northern Plains, bringing winds back blo 20 knots by
Thursday morning. The next chance for stronger winds will then come
on Friday night into Saturday, as a sfc low passes to the SE of the
lake and rapidly strengthens over New England.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
.UPDATE...
No major updates are needed to the afternoon forecast package at
this time. Simply updated the diurnal curve using observations,
and some high-res guidance.
/44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail into the early morning hours
tomorrow, before MVFR skies return by 08/12z. Precipitation
chances will also increase area wide into tomorrow, with reduced
visibilities possible with any of the heavier activity. As cloud
cover continues to thicken, IFR ceilings are likely past 08/18z as
some of the heavier precipitation enters the region.
/44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/
The latest mid-level RAP analysis indicates the area in a
southwesterly flow well ahead of a 500mb trough that extends the
Four Corners region northeastward into the central Plains. Mid-
level moisture is still lingering in the 800-600mb layer in
addition to a thin layer of moisture at the surface. GOES
satellite imagery shows this layer of moisture moving to the
northeast across the area with mostly cloudy skies across much of
the area. At the surface, a 1000mb low is located over the Ohio
Valley with a cold front extending southwest of this feature
across the Tennessee Valley into the Mississippi Valley.
Locally, in the wake of the aforementioned cold front,
northwesterly are observed across our four state region. Cold air
advection is in full effect in a low-level northwesterly flow. In
cold air advection, a few bands of light rain showers are pushing
across the area. Showers have mostly diminished across the area
with radar indicating only isolated light showers or sprinkles
remaining.
This evening and tonight, high pressure will continue to build in
from the northwest, pushing into the southern Plains and the
Missouri Valley. Meanwhile, a surface low and inverted trough will
develop off the Texas coast. The first round of showers and
sprinkles will come to an end by this evening. Then the high
along with a mostly dry deep layer of air aloft tonight will
contribute to a dry night with an area of clearing for much of the
night before cloud coverage increases again the morning.
On Tuesday, the area will remain in a southwesterly mid-level flow
as the surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico further develops
and moves northeastward to the TX/LA coasts. The inverted trough
with this feature will provide forcing and low-level moisture will
be on the increase, returning rain to much of the area. Hi-res
models indicate that scattered to numerous to showers will push into
the area from the south by late morning, covering much of the
ArkLaTex and surrounding areas by Tuesday afternoon. Elevated
instability (MUCAPE around 500 J/KG) will contribute to isolated
embedded thunderstorms possible in the morning in Deep East Texas
and then across East Texas and northern Louisiana into the
afternoon. The NAM 3km is outputting an increase coverage of
scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the ArkLaMiss, but
do not anticipate a severe threat at this time. That being said,
there could be some locally heavy downpours contributing to a much
needed quick half an inch to an inch of rainfall, especially in
central Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss. Generally lighter rainfall amounts
less than a half of an inch are expected further to the
northwest. For temperatures, GFS/NAM solutions are about 5 degrees
cooler than the NBM/ECMWF solutions, so tweaked temperatures down
a few degrees cooler than the NBM with highs in ranging from the
upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.
By Tuesday night, the surface low and its association moisture and
forcing will have shifted east of the area, with lingering showers
mostly coming to an end by midnight. The surface high northwest of
the area will then build in slightly with skies beginning to clear
north of the I-30 corridor by the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.
Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy across the area. GFS/NAM
again are cooler than the NBM/ECMWF and thus temperatures were
tweaked a few degrees below the NBM. Lows will range from the mid
30s in southeastern Oklahoma to the lower 40s in central Louisiana.
/04-Woodrum/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 39 50 41 59 / 0 90 40 10
MLU 40 50 43 57 / 10 100 80 10
DEQ 32 52 35 61 / 0 50 30 0
TXK 34 50 39 59 / 0 80 30 0
ELD 35 50 38 58 / 0 80 50 10
TYR 35 49 38 60 / 0 80 20 0
GGG 36 50 39 60 / 0 90 30 10
LFK 42 50 40 60 / 20 90 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
04/44
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
Key Points:
- Dry and closer to seasonal next couple of days
- Increasing chances for accumulating snowfall Wednesday night
through Thursday, possibly into Friday morning
- Much colder end to the week with Arctic air following the snow
As of 20Z this afternoon, sfc high pressure has been sitting over
the central US with the upper pattern showing broad troughing over
the CONUS, and an approaching shortwave passing through the Four
Corners region. A quiet evening is in store as the sfc high
gradually slides east into Tuesday. Can`t completely rule out some
fog overnight into the morning with the light winds, clear skies,
and low-level moisture from the snowpack/snowmelt. However, the RAP
is far more robust in showing that potential, so just something to
monitor for now. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to
warm to the upper 40s and low 50s Tuesday, helping the snow to melt
further. The aforementioned shortwave is progged to pass just south
of the area, and while a few models are showing some small areas of
light QPF Tuesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be
enough lift or saturation in the low levels.
The main precipitation chances come mid-week with two possible
waves. The first of which comes with a shortwave diving out of the
northern Rockies Wednesday night, generating a sfc low on the
southeast side of the Rockies. This system has shown an increasing
trend in the probability of impactful snow through Thursday,
especially for locations north of I-70. There is still enough
difference between models on the timing and how progressive this
system might be, with ensembles showing decent spread in amounts,
but at this point northern areas have the better chance of seeing a
few inches. The dominant p-type looks to be snow at this time, with
a brief period of rain possible at the onset until early Wednesday
evening when temps cool enough to support snow. However, it is worth
mentioning that some guidance, namely the NAM, suggests we may get
dry-slotted which would result in a loss of cloud ice during the day
Thursday. If we get more of a mix of precip types, this would cut
down on snow amounts as well, particularly further south. The second
wave is associated with the southern stream trough that digs into
northern Mexico. Most precip from this looks to stay south of the
area, and the GFS suggests it misses us completely, but the slower
EC suggests snow could linger into Friday morning.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the precip, what looks more
certain is the push of Arctic air behind the snow, bringing another
shot of cold air to end the week. Temps likely won`t warm up much on
Thursday with most places struggling out of the 20s and 30s. Friday
and Saturday looks to bring similar highs, but morning lows are
forecast in the single digits to teens, possibly near zero on
Saturday. The good news is we do see a return to zonal flow and
downsloping winds by Sunday, bringing a return to warmer weather to
begin next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as sfc high pressure passes
overhead during the overnight period. On the backside, a
developing sfc trough over the central plains backs sfc winds to
the southwest near 10 kts at KMHK aft 17Z. Mid level clouds
begin to increase at all sites aft 18Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...22