Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/07/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
810 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
A fast moving band band of light to moderate snow will continue
eastward, generally north of highway 54 to around the I-70/Wakeeney
and Hays areas through mid evening. The activity is associated
with strong cold advection backing winds in the 850-700 layer and
the left front exit region of the cyclonically curved mid level
jet. A dusting of snow over a large area is the most likely
outcome, along with periodic drops in visibility to the 1
- 2 mile range through late evening before the activity moves out
of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
A strong upper level shortwave trough was moving out over the Front
Range and western High Plains this afternoon. An area of strong forcing
and upward vertical motion was preceding the shortwave. An area
thundershowers, thundersnow and sleet had developed over the Texas
Panhandle this morning and was moving through south central Kansas
this afternoon. Snow accumulations have been 1-2 inches at most
and KDOT webcams in the area are showing mainly slushy accumulations.
The back edge of this area of precipitation is moving out of Oklahoma
into the Coldwater area and current speed and timing would have it
moving out of the DDC forecast area between 500-600 pm this evening.
Farther west, a broad area of upslope and mid level deformation
forced light snow was slowly spreading to the east/northeast
across eastern Colorado into far northwest Kansas. This could move
into far western northwestern portions of the forecast area west
and north of a Garden City to Hays line this evening. Will carry
some small chance pops for this but am not expecting any significant
accumulation as most of the mid level forcing will stay over northwest
Kansas. Any light snow will be ending by midnight with clearing
skies as the upper wave continues to move out and ridging/subsidence
builds in behind it. Have undercut MOS guidance for overnight low
temperatures with mid teens expected most locations. Lows should
be around 20 over south central Kansas.
Monday will be sunny as weak upper level ridging continues over
the area. It will be on the chilly side with highs only reaching
the lower 40s at best.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
Another shortwave trough will move out of the northern Rockies and
across the central and southern Plains by Tuesday evening. This
system will be lacking in moisture so only some cloudiness and a
subtle windshift are expected.
A deeper upper level shortwave will dive out of western Canada
into the northern Rockies on Tuesday night and then drop into the
central Plains by Wednesday night. Given the meridional configuration
in the upper flow pattern with this wave, it will bring another
shot of much colder air with it. The front should be moving into
northwest Kansas by Wednesday afternoon or early evening and across
southwest Kansas Wednesday night. Isentropic upglide developing over
the front will bring some light snow to the area mainly Wednesday
night. At this time it does not appear to be a significant snow
producer but gusty north winds will likely cause some blowing and
drifting snow. Thursday and Friday will be chilly with highs in
the 20s and 30s but temperatures should begin to rebound by the
weekend as the upper trough moves out of the central Plains and
upper level ridging builds over the region in its wake.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
A weak system is moving though the region, with a deformation axis
over northern Kansas through the late evening, that will produce
light snow and ceilings around HYS maybe as low as 3-4 kft. As
the system continues lifting east, HRRR model is showing alot of
scattered 1-2 kft ceilings however this will not be widespread ans
not carried prevailing in any TAFS until it can be better
evaluated later this evening, and may not impact any TAF sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 41 18 50 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 16 40 18 50 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 17 42 20 51 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 16 43 17 52 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 17 41 16 51 / 70 0 0 0
P28 20 44 20 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1009 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure will dominate the pattern into Monday before an
active cold front approaches the mountains Monday evening and
crosses east early Tuesday. This front will stall south of the
forecast area through the remainder of the week while interacting
waves of upper energy bring a chance of rain each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 955 pm EST: The forecast remains on track for the near term
period. 850 mb flow is slowly increasing late this evening from the
west. Recent RAP model runs continue to feature a 50 to 55 kt low-
level jet slowly crossing the southern Appalachians in warm
advection flow overnight through much of the day Monday ahead of an
approaching front. No expansion will be made to the Wind Advisory
yet, but any deeper mixing on Monday could require some sizable
adjustments to the Advisory area, perhaps even across locations east
of the mountains and out near the I-77 corridor. This will be
reviewed overnight following a look at the full suite of 00Z model
guidance.
Otherwise, a broad mid/upper trough continues to move slowly
offshore and out over the Western Atlantic late this evening. A cold
front west of the MS River Valley is making only slow progress east
as the parent low moves into the Midwest. The southeast remains
solidly in the warm sector and this will provide for another mild
night with low temps on the order of 15 degrees above normal. Most
of the region will stay dry as we lack mid/upper forcing and
isentropic lift. The low-level flow will veer to a more
southwesterly direction, which will favor some mechanical lift along
the SW-facing ridges over southwest NC, so low precip chances
develop there in the early morning hours and continue into daytime
Monday. The front will finally make some eastward progress on Monday
as a shortwave lifts out of the mean upper trof to our west.
Mid/upper forcing should move in from the west in the afternoon,
driving the frontal precip into the mtns around mid-afternoon. The
severity of convection along the front is the main concern.
Fortunately, this is within the range of the 12Z HREF. The HREF is
not particularly impressed with our severe thunderstorm chances as
updraft strength is minimal and updraft helicity weakens as it
reaches the mtns. That being said, several of the convection-
allowing models bring a linear high reflectivity feature across the
TN valley and into the NC mountains around 20Z to 21Z, suggesting
enough organization to mount at least some damaging wind threat to
the NC mtns in the late afternoon. We will maintain the mention in
the HWO to account for this. Precip probs climb substantially in the
mid/late afternoon over the mtns, but most of the area east of the
mtns will keep relatively modest precip chances through the end of
the daytime period. High temps will be well above normal once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...A surface front continues to cross the FA
early Tue with some convec possible across the srn zones. Not
expecting a svr potential as instability wanes quickly and becomes
elevated. Deep layered shear remains quite high, however, and a
couple storms could still produce stg, yet sub-severe, outflows.
Surface winds become nw/ly and the llvls dry out enuf for a limited
precip potential Tue with good coverage of mid and upper clouds
persisting. As a sfc high nudges in from the NE, temps will be held
a little cooler in the ne/en zones or right arnd or a bit below
normal, while highs reach abt 5 degrees abv normal south.
As the sfc front pushes toward the coast and broadens out, a series
of mlvl vort waves will move in from the southwest and interact
with a moistening sfc wedge, which will likely yield widespread
precip Tue night into Wed. The srn BR escarpment will be a favored
area for better precip rates and accum as upslope flow enhances
lift. For now, have 1-2 inches of rain thru a general 15-hr period,
which could spawn localized minor flooding issues. The deep-layered
cloudiness and precip will keep temps a couple degrees below normal
Wed, while reduced cooling allows mins abt 10 degrees abv normal
each day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Sunday...The pattern remains active thru most of
the ext range as a coastal sfc front remains aligned within deep
layered sw/ly flow. Another series of embedded s/w energy will eject
out of a wrn h5 trof and track across the area beginning Wed evening
and this will once again interact with the sfc bndry and a quickly
moistening llvl wedge. So, expect increasing precip chances Thu with
generally low-end precip amts. Not a great setup for deep convec as
the column moistens and the mlvls warm. The better rainfall amts on
Thu will occur across the far sw/rn zones near the wedge bndry where
up to an inch of accum is likely, then more lower-end rain across the
wrn Upstate and NE GA Fri as the wedge begins to retract ahead of an
advancing cold front.
By Fri evening the cold front will impinge upon the wrn NC mtns and
bring a good shot of precip with snow across the higher elevations
thru the overnight. The latest GFS is more widespread with a
snowfall potential as it brings in a deep layered thickness trof
quicker and broader than the ECMWF. In fact, the GFS would have snow
developing outside the mtns into the NC fthills and Piedmont thru
12z. However, this soln is being tempered with the warmer ECMWF and
the GEFS ensemble mean keeping snowfall confined to the higher
elevations. Outside of lingering upslope clouds and NWFS, the atmos
dries out quickly Sat afternoon and remains dry thru Sun as a
modified cP airmass engulfs the region. Max and min temps are
expected right arnd normal Thu/Fri then fall 8-10 degrees below
normal for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mainly FEW to SCT VFR stratocumulus
are expected overnight in the S to SW flow, especially in and near
the mountains, but with little chance of any lower ceilings until
daybreak. Even then, any cigs will be higher-based than in previous
days as the flow has veered more southwesterly. Will ramp winds up
quickly through Monday morning and bring in 20 to 30 kt gusts
throughout with mixing through the day ahead of the cold front.
Precipitation chances return from the west through the afternoon
hours, and more toward evening at KCLT. Thunder will be possible at
any location, but will keep the PROB30 TSRA mention confined to the
more unstable air around KAND in the later afternoon. MVFR will
again be possible with passing showers along the frontal zone.
Outlook: The front will move southeast Monday night into Tuesday.
Some improvement could occur by Tuesday if the cold front makes it
to the coast, but moisture should return quickly for Tuesday night
into Wednesday, and again with another wave of low pressure through
late week, with flight restrictions expected at times in the
unsettled mid to late week pattern.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 3 PM EST Monday for NCZ051-
052-058-059.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG/PM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
851 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop through the region tonight with a few
showers as well as gusty winds...particularly in the mountains.
Another low brings a period of rain, possibly changing to snow
Monday night in the mountains. Mild, high pressure builds in for
the middle of the week. Another round of precipitation is
possible late in the week as low pressure tracks towards the
Northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
850 PM Update: Primary changes this hour are to match the highly
changeable temperature trends cold air has pooled south of the
mountains in traditional CAD locations with strong SW flow
overtop this cold wedge. Coastal plain is warming with elevated
shower activity continuing from the Lakes region to the SW ME
coast. Adjusted shower trends a bit and boosted winds over the
waters per evening buoy observations but no other significant
changes to the overnight forecast.
650 PM Update: Roughly 30F temperature range across the CWA as
some of the typical CAD locations /Plymouth, NH for example/
have dropped back into the 30s with mixed locations sitting in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Have made adjustments to account
for this...but large hour to hour temperature changes are likely
as the shallow cold air sloshes around the valleys. Shower
activity along the Canadian border and now moving into the KLEB
area. Have seen some lightning over eastern NY and into western
VT...but cell trends have been downward as convection pushes
east and becomes elevated in line with recent model soundings
with any instability /even elevated/ very minimal east of the CT
Valley. Thus...while gusty winds are possible with any showers
that make it into our area...threat for thunder...and severe
gusts looks very low. Adjusted PoPs to boost precipitation
chances for Canadian border activity...otherwise no significant
changes in forecast thinking heading through the evening.
Previous discussion below...
Rapid clearing is allowing sun to mix out the low
level inversion and temps are spiking quickly into the 60s
across southern NH and rising thru the 40s and 50s elsewhere.
Moisture convergence ahead of the approaching cold front is
showing up well as a congested Cu field that is expanding
northeastward with time. The southern end of this line has
already initiated a few thunderstorms...and that is eventually
expected to occur in the forecast area as we become more
unstable. A broken band of showers and storms should develop
around the mtns and sink southward to the MA border and coast by
late evening. Forecast soundings show a narrow window of pretty
marginal instability...mostly elevated at that. I have isolated
thunderstorms mentioned because I do not see it being
widespread. The lack of many surface based forecast soundings
also leads me to believe any severe threat will be quite
limited. That being said winds are very strong just off the deck
and stronger convection may be able to mix down gusty winds.
That threat will be over with by 10 to 11 pm as storms
dissipate.
An additional wind threat will develop overnight as the cold
front sags into the region. While low levels cool...the mid
levels stay rather mild and a decent inversion develops around 3
to 4 kft. Winds will stay quite strong in that layer and it
matches the height of much of our terrain well. Forecast Froude
numbers indicate critical flow...favorable for downsloping
winds. HRRR wind gusts are lighting up the southeast slopes of
the Whites...Mahoosucs...and Bigelows with gusts in excess of 40
kt. I have issued a wind advisory to encompass the zones with
the greatest threat for strong downslope wind gusts. Large areas
of these zones may be breezy or have little wind at all...but
the advisory is primarily for the immediate downslope regions.
Temps will remain mild overnight as the cold front takes until
Mon to mix down to the surface.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Wave of low pressure already forming on the tail end of the cold
front will ensure that it makes little progress thru the
forecast area Mon. Temps will be fairly steady in the upper 30s
and 40s thru the day until just ahead of the next cold front.
Southern NH may see readings spike into the 50s Mon evening
before all locations begin to cool down.
Precip will move in during the morning with the majority of the
area seeing just rain. Some colder air aloft will allow the
higher terrain to remain as or mix with snow. Eventually WAA
wins out again and those mtns flip to sleet or freezing rain. I
do not expect any push of cold air into the valleys...so for now
there is no winter weather advisory. QPF is around a quarter to
half inch...so any river rises will be due mainly to snow melt
from today and tomorrow. Typically we need warm temps and
significant QPF to produce more widespread ice jam threat. With
any jams staying isolated I have not issued a flood watch for
the threat.
There will be a stronger push of CAA with the front tomorrow
night. In addition to the temps falling back below freezing for
much of the area...there will be some gusty winds behind it. As
the front helps mix out the low levels that get a little dammed
in Mon we may be able to briefly tap the stronger winds aloft
before they lift northeast. I cannot rule out a window for wind
gusts around 40 to 50 mph...and for now have increased gusts to
the 25 to 35 mph range. I would like to get thru the wind
tonight before tackling any potential headlines for Mon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to intensify as it exits through the Canadian
Maritimes on Tuesday. Have adjusted winds upwards as both the
gradient and mixing levels increase during the day.
Mesoscale models suggest the northwesterly flow will allow for a few
upslope snow showers during the day as well, especially during the
morning hours. Temperatures will be seasonable for this time of the
year.
High pressure will crest over New England Tuesday night. With mainly
clear skies and light winds, temperatures will drop off into the
single numbers in the north to the lower 20s across the south.
12Z models and ensemble solutions continue to generate a low
pressure system that will pass well south of the region on
Wednesday. Some cloudiness may make its way into far southern
portions of the forecast area as low pressure exits off the North
Carolina coastline during the Wednesday through Thursday time period.
Dry conditions will last into Friday before low pressure takes aim
towards the Northeast. Guidance has shifted east with this system
which is not surprising given the time of the year. This will allow
for the potential for rain and snow in the mountains and mostly rain
elsewhere as we head into next weekend. Ensemble solutions however
do not show much in the way of heavy precipitation with perhaps the
Canadian runs being the outlier.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...
Summary: A cold front crosses the region tonight with a few showers
before a brief period of dry weather through Monday morning before
another wave of low pressure brings renewed showers by Monday
afternoon. Rain showers will end as mountain snow showers Monday
night with strong northwesterly winds developing.
Restrictions: VFR ATTM. Showers along the cold front may bring a
brief MVFR restriction...but will be very brief through this
evening. Feel any thunder threat is quite low and have not included
thunder mention in the TAFs. VFR Monday morning with increasing
clouds with rain developing during the afternoon with rapid
deterioration to IFR/LIFR. There is some potential for
precipitation to begin as snow at HIE. Monday night...precipitation
diminishes to showers in the mountains while changing to snow as
temperatures quickly fall. Expect VFR conditions to dominate Monday
night outside of lingering MVFR SHSN/CIGS at HIE.
Winds: South-Southwest 12g20kts this evening /with a few higher
gusts within the aforementioned showers/ shift more westerly
overnight with winds diminishing by Monday morning. Winds remain
less than 10kts through Monday evening before shifting west
northwest overnight and increasing to 15-20KT with gusts 25 to 30kt
LLWS: Southwest winds 45-50kts at 2kft will continue
tonight...gradually diminishing after midnight. LLWS is likely
again Monday night with strong 2kft southwesterly winds again before
winds shift northwest overnight.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions on Tuesday with the exception of
the mountains where scattered upslope snow showers may briefly lower
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR for brief periods. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions expected through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Southwest winds steadily increase thru the evening
with gale force gusts expected outside of the bays. Winds
diminish early Mon morning but seas remain at or above 5 ft thru
the day. Another round of gusty winds is expected late Mon into
Tue with gale force gusts possible.
Long Term...A strong westerly gradient will continue over the
coastal waters on Tuesday. This will allow winds to gust up to 30 kt
with Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds diminish for the period
Wednesday through Friday with high pressure near the region.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012.
NH...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NHZ002-004-006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Arnott
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 939 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
Radar this evening shows a surge of rain over SW Indiana and Srn
IL...pushing northeast toward Central Indiana. GOES16 shows cooling
cloud tops over IL and SW Indiana pushing toward Indiana. Surface
low pressure was found upstream over SW MO and a warm front was
found stretching across southern Illinois to Central Indiana and
Ohio.
As the low pressure system continues to push toward Indiana
overnight a strong southerly flow will continue to flow into Indiana
ahead of the low and interact with the frontal boundary. This will
continue to cause a favorable forcing condition for rain overnight.
Forecast soundings and time heights show a saturated column through
at least 09Z-10Z with good lift in place. Pwats remain above 1.10
inches indicative of favorable moisture available. Finally the HRRR
continues to trend with the advection of rain showers across Indiana
overnight and trending them southward and east on Monday
morning...finally exiting central Indiana along with the passing
surface low.
Given the expected rain overnight and Saturated soils...ongoing
flood watch appears in good shape. Expect some ponding of water in
low lying areas and possible areal flood warnings needed.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
There are some uncertainties for tonight with convective and flood
threats. Several hi-res models and CAMs are aggressive with
northward advancement of warm front and warm sector, whereas some
are more suppressed with a higher signal for convective training
over portions of southern Indiana (i.e., HRRR). The latter would
lead to more concern for flooding given slight positive 14-day
precipitation anomalies and QPF vs 3-hr flash flood guidance values.
Thus, the reasonable worst case scenario from a flooding standpoint
would be low-end marginal flooding or isolated flash flooding as a
result of longer duration of warm advection-driven precipitation
near the warm front, followed by a final round of frontal forced
precipitation ending by morning.
The atmosphere is likely to transition quickly later today and this
evening as ascent increases from approaching upper trough and
precipitation coverage and intensity grows on the north side of the
front. Given the strong kinematic response to the approaching wave,
it does not appear that initial warm advection precipitation will
substantially suppress the northward movement of the warm sector and
this will raise concern for surface based convection and attendant
wind/tornado threat later tonight across at least our far southern
counties.
Upstream, intense convection is likely within a more buoyant regime
across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Consolidation and
upscale growth is likely later this evening with a QLCS potentially
evolving, though the northward extent is uncertain. So, the threat
is more conditional north of our southernmost row of counties.
Although 0-3-km shear vector orientations would likely be nearly
parallel to linear complex orientation, magnitude of low-level shear
and even very modest buoyancy could yield mesovortex generation and
perhaps a few QLCS tornadoes. Any storm-scale RIJ/surge will need to
be watched very closely, with mesovort/tornadic formation favoring
the apex of the bowing segment northward. At the very least, a
mature linear complex in such strong kinematic environment would be
capable of momentum transfer and strong to severe gusts causing
straight-line wind damage.
The best case scenario with regards to convection is the more
suppressed heavy rain scenario described above where surface based
convection would likely be relegated to south of our area. The worst
case scenario is a northward surge of the warm sector deeper into
our area with a mature QLCS approaching, which would heighten the
wind/tornado threat. Observational trends will need to be monitored
closely through the evening and more clarity to the threat magnitude
and northward extent is expected as convective evolution upstream
happens.
&&
.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
Broad positively tilted upper troughing will sit over much of the
central and western CONUS for the first half of the long term
period. This will place central Indiana under generally SW flow for
most of the work week leading to near to slightly above normal
temperatures. Surface high pressure will track across the area
midweek leading to dry and quiet conditions.
Towards late week, the upper trough will start to advance eastward.
An associated surface cold front will bring chances for
precipitation from Thursday night into the weekend. At this time,
forcing along the front looks good enough for likely PoPs on Friday.
There remains some uncertainty on timing of the system and where the
surface low will move and these will have impacts on precipitation
type. For now will go with rain to start and a transition to snow
towards the end of the system.
Behind the front, much colder temperatures are in store for a day or
so. Then, high pressure will return dry conditions and near normal
temperatures.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
IMPACTS:
-- VFR Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR and then to
IFR conditions by Monday morning
-- Rain showers...some with heavy rain along with some scattered
thunderstorms are expected overnight.
DISCUSSION:
A warm front was settled across Central Indiana early this evening
and GOES16 shows high CI invading Central Indiana from the west.
Surface low pressure was found over MO and is expected to track NE
toward and across southern Central Indiana during this TAf Period.
As the low arrives and crosses tonight...showers along withe some
heavier rain showers are expected to push across the TAF sites with
greatest impacts along and south of I-70.
Brief Heavy rain associated with these showers and storms overnight
may reduce visibility to less than 2 miles at times.
As the low departs on Monday morning IFR Cigs slowly improving to
MVFR are expected to linger in its wake for much of Monday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM EST Monday for INZ042-045>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...BRB
Long Term...KH
Aviation...Puma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2022
00Z sfc analysis shows a warm front now starting to lift through
eastern Kentucky - connected to a strong area of low pressure to
the southwest of the state. This boundary is responsible for some
training showers and a few thunderstorms basically through the
I-64 corridor - with a few stronger rogue ones affecting places to
the south. This has left behind 1 to 1.5 inches of rain over that
area and further training remains a concern through late evening.
However, with the boundary moving north the flood potential is
rather limited and restricted to where the heaviest cells train
this evening. A lull in the rain follows later this evening and
for much of the night before showers and possible storms work back
in from the northwest with the system`s cold front late tonight.
Currently, temperatures vary from the low 70s south - out of the
frontal rains - to the upper 50s in the showers. Dewpoints are
more uniform across the area and generally in the mid 50s. Winds
have settled to less then 10 mph and become variable along the
front but are still gusting from the south at 15 to 25 mph near
the Tennessee border. Have updated the forecast to transition and
taper the convective rains to the north through the evening as
well as updating the QPF/Sky grids in addition to including the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td ones. These updates have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
HWO, ZFP, and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 426 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2022
Showers and storms this afternoon have mainly been confined along I-
64 and north. Rainfall rates have been fairly light, around 0.15"/hr
through early this afternoon, and only have picked up in the most
recent round of convection. Even so, these rates have generally been
less than 0.3"/hr (as of 21z). Hi-Res guidance has hinted at a
southerly shift through this evening, before lifting back north
overnight. There could be a brief window of stronger storms during
the hours prior to sunset if these trends hold true, as locations
further south have stayed mostly dry, and at times, with a mix of
sunshine. Better instability is depicted across the southwest based
on the latest RAP analysis as well, so could see a few storms
producing stronger winds and potentially small hail in these areas.
Overnight, activity works back north, with some additional
clearing in the southeast. As a result, could see deeper valleys
drop of here before southerly flow picks back after 7z, raising
overnight temperatures. Have overnight lows bottoming out just
after midnight, before a LLJ of 60-70 kts builds in and better
mixing ensues.
Into the upper levels...several lobes of upper level vorticity
exist over the CONUS, with one pocket currently working across the
Lower Great Lakes region. A cold front is attached, running south
through the Ohio Valley and arcing west across the Southern
Plains. A shortwave is present aloft across the Southern High
Plains and will support the development of a low along this
boundary, which will work through the Mid Mississippi Valley and
through the Ohio Valley tonight and Monday. The aforementioned
front will then approach tomorrow, crossing the area from west to
east through the mid morning to early afternoon. As mentioned in
the prior discussion, guidance has sped up the progression of the
front, which should help limit hydro related issues, along with
severe potential given the timing in the day. With that said,
soundings & CIPS guidance indicates the ever so common high shear,
low CAPE environment, with instability in the 400-500 J/kg
ballpark. Given the rainfall through today and additional amounts
tonight, localized flooding will also be possible, mainly along
the I-64 corridor, though the several hour break late tonight
will aid in drying things out a bit. Cooler air will then trail
through the afternoon, with a non-diurnal temperature curve
expected. CAMs indicate a few linger showers post-front, otherwise
activity should subside by early Monday night with lows returning
to a more seasonable norm.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2022
Reasonably good agreement with the synoptic pattern among
extended solutions today. Aloft, flow is best described as an
amplified but progressive pattern. Typical timing differences do
show up, with the operational GFS being most likely too aggressive
with the speed of features further out. Ensemble solutions and
cluster analysis tend to support this idea.
There are two main features of interest through the extended. The
first being a shortwave disturbance tracking through a broad,
deep southwest flow regime that dampens as it tracks eastward
across the CONUS early in the extended. This disturbance appears
strong enough to reflect a surface wave of sorts across the far
southeastern US, providing some overspreading precipitation to the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A second, more substantial trough will swing across the lower 48
through the later half of the extended, and through the Ohio
Valley from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Trough axis
most likely transits our neck of the woods Saturday night. Again,
ensemble solutions and cluster analysis suggest a higher
probability of a slower solution with this second storm system, at
odds with the GFS`s more progressive solution. Experience has
also taught that the GFS is typically fast with these systems out
beyond Dy3-4. The higher probability of a slower evolution of the
storm system, more similar to the ECMWF, suggests that it is more
likely that the storm track through the southeastern CONUS late in
the week will be further northwest, keeping eastern Kentucky
closer to the warm sector of the storm system, which translates to
a greater chance of missing any significant, or impactful wintery
type weather as advertised by the 12Z operational GFS. At this
point the idea of seeing some snow showers late in the extended
seems like a decent bet, but the probability of accumulations
and/or impacts at this stage seem negligible. There is better
agreement in guidance that some cold air will settle down across
the region by the end of the period, with afternoon highs
struggling to get out of the 30s across our forecast area next
Saturday and possibly cooler than the mid to upper 40s currently
advertised for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2022
Most TAF sites will stay at VFR through the period, with the
exception of SYM where rounds of showers and thunderstorms could
bump ceilings/visibilities down to MVFR or potentially lower at
times through this evening. A northward shift in activity will
occur this evening eventually sparing all but SYM. Variable winds
north, and breezy southwest ones south, will slacken tonight, but
LLWS picks back up for all sites through the early morning hours.
An approaching cold front tightens the gradient Monday, bringing
south to southwest surface winds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to
30 kts from mid morning into the afternoon. Convection will also
fire back up along and ahead of this boundary, lowering
ceilings/visibility from west to east through latter portion of
the forecast period. This will reduce SYM and SME to MVFR, or
lower, first before similar trends continue southeast while winds
swing to the west - remaining gusty.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...BB
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...BB/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
847 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
.UPDATE...
/Mesoscale update/
Modest instability remains in place this evening,
mainly along and west of the MS River. However, with the cooling
of the boundary layer we`re seeing increasing convective
inhibition which is significantly limiting convection across the
CWA at this time. The only storm in the area is passing just to
the north of Clay County and has had a history of tornadoes and
funnel clouds. Once this cell passes northwest Clay, we`ll likely
be in a lull for a few hours. Dynamics have been modest across the
Mid-South this afternoon and evening, but we`re beginning to see
the stronger forcing for ascent overspread the area per the latest
water vapor loop.
A few warm advection showers continue across the delta and near
the Memphis area, but this activity is not a concern. The NQA VWP
is depicting 2-3 kft AGL winds near 50 kts, a substantial increase
over the past hour. This strengthening low-level jet will lengthen
hodographs overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. Deep-
layer shear will be strong overnight and will assist in
maintaining a QLCS as it moves through AR and across the MS River.
The RAP 0-3 km AGL shear vectors are oriented roughly boundary
parallel which isn`t really conducive to mesovortex generation.
However, the storm-relative helicity (both in the 0-1 km and 0-3
km layers) will be quite strong at 200-300 m2/s2 (or greater in
some areas). Recent VWP hodographcs are indicating quite a bit
more SRH that what the RAP is suggesting. With that in mind, the
primary concern along the QLCS will be damaging winds with a few
tornadoes possible as well.
The timing still looks good with the line reaching the Jonesboro
around 2 AM, the Memphis area 4-5 AM, and the Tupelo area around 8
AM.
MJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022/
DISCUSSION...
Currently, another warm day is occurring across the Mid-South.
Temperatures have climbed into the mid 70s to lower 80s. A front
is stalled across Southeast Missouri northeastward along the Ohio
River. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to
occur across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
Northwest Tennessee. With CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range,
can`t rule out an isolated storm becoming severe. However thus
far because the main forcing remains located back across Oklahoma,
storms have remain below severe limits. As the stalled front
begins to lift northward over the next couple of hours, the
convection will also shift northward. A lull will occur this
evening until the cold front pushes into the Mid-South. The latest
CAMs are showing this occurring around midnight. This timing will
align with a shortwave trough that will be moving into the
Midwest. With adequate forcing and sufficient instability, storms
that form along cold front will likely become severe with damaging
winds being the main threat. As instability wanes, the severe
threat will begin to diminish as sunrise approaches.
The front will continue to push to the southeast through the CWA
on Monday. There is a chance that the line of convection could
reintensify before it exits the CWA around midday producing a few
severe storms across Northeast Mississippi, but the likelihood is
small. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area behind the
front. Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s.
The front will sag south and stall along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday
as low pressure develops along it. The low will track northeastward
along the front putting the Mid-South into an overrunning
pattern. In addition, another shortwave trough will move eastward
into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Rain will begin
spread back into North Mississippi late Tuesday afternoon and
will spread over much of the Mid-South Tuesday Night into
Wednesday morning before tapering off from west to east.
Winds will turn around to the south quickly behind the midweek
system. This will allow highs to warm into the mid 60s to lower
70s on Thursday. The warm weather will be short-lived as a strong
arctic cold front will move into the area on Friday. Temperatures
will plummet behind the front. Questions remain about
precipitation chances with the system as models differ on
solutions. Highs on Saturday will only be in the lower to mid 40s.
However, temperatures are expected to begin to rebound on Sunday.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
VFR conds will give way to MVFR CIGs late tonight as a cold front
moves into the area. The front will move into JBR around 06Z and
push through MEM around 09Z with MKL and TUP a few hours later.
Expect TSRA, MVFR CIGs, and a wind shift. with the frontal
passage. There is the potential for IFR VSBYs and CIGs, but
confidence remains low at this time. Post-frontal SHRAs will
continue through late morning and into the early afternoon hours
before tapering off. MVFR conds should gradually improve near the
end of the period.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
802 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier showers that skirted the northwest corner of Middle
Tennessee have all moved to our north and this should leave us
rain-free until the next round of activity enters the mid state
after midnight ahead of an approaching cold front. The evening
sounding already shows modest instability with steep mid-level
lapse rates. The only inhibitor is an elevated inversion situated
above 700 mb. The latest HRRR brings an organized line of
convection right along the surface front that looks to move across
Middle Tennessee from 11Z until 18Z, with only scattered, light
showers occuring ahead and behind the main line of convection. So
we`ll update the public forecast shortly to remove the rest of the
evening POP`s, with the next round of POP`s holding off until
closer to morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...This evening, we can expect VFR wx across Middle
Tennessee. Ongoing convection to our north will likely stay there.
So that will leave us with gusty surface winds and an increasing
low-level jet that will contribute to some LLWS ahead of
tomorrow`s anticipated cold front. It looks as though we can
expect mainly light showers in advance of and behind the front.
The HRRR brings a sharp line of convection through Middle
Tennessee during the day Monday that appears to be our primary
chance of storms. So we`ve been able to break out TEMPO groups in
the TAF`s to highlight the best time for TS/CB`s. Ceilings will
likely stay MVFR/IFR for most of the day tomorrow.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
524 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
Severe and hydro threats will continue tonight into Monday morning.
The latest model guidance depicts convection blossoming across the
CWA as the surface warm front begins to lift to the north along with
a robust LLJ. This will promote areas of training convection with a
risk of flash flooding. Latest CAM guidance are really hitting
southeast MO into southwest IL with the potential for 2-3" of rain
tonight, with a broader area of 1-2" along and north of the Ohio
River. Decided to issue a new Flood Watch through 15z Monday to
cover this risk. Across the current Flood Watch in west KY,
confidence is lower that additional widespread rains will occur
after the expiration time of 03z, so decided to let it continue as
is for now. It may be extended later this evening based on radar
and model trends.
The main concern for severe weather areawide will be late tonight
through Monday morning, roughly form 03z to 12z Monday. This will be
in the form of a strongly forced QLCS ahead of a surface cold front.
With a strong LLJ in place to assist in elongating hodographs and
ample 0 to 3 km CAPE, there is a concern for mesovortex development
within this line with a damaging wind and brief spin up tornado
risk. The current SPC enhanced and slight risks across our CWA
covers the risk well. The severe risk will wind down quickly after
12z Monday as the line of convection exits the area. It will turn
much colder with some partial clearing skies in the wake of the
cold front`s passage.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
General high pressure at the surface, under west-southwesterly flow
aloft, will keep us under rain-free conditions through most of the
week, as temps progressively moderate with time.
The only possible exception to this will be the result of shortwave
energy in the flow aloft just to our south Tue night. This impulse
will tend to draw moist air up over the dome of high pressure at the
surface as a weak inverted surface trof impinges on it. Some model
indications were that measurable pcpn, mostly rain, will occur in
the southern Pennyrile region of KY. Other models suggested just
lots of cloudiness and perhaps just an interval of sprinkles there
and a little farther west. The NBM consensus suggested that there
will be at least a slight chance of measurable pcpn roughly along
the OH River and the lower half of southeastern MO, possibly ending
with some snowflakes in the air near daybreak. This was kept in the
forecast, but downplayed slightly. No impacts are anticipated.
The medium range models showed a significant airmass change will
occur early Fri, as much colder Canadian air begins to flow into our
region from the northwest. Moisture return ahead of the arctic front
will not be robust, so despite large scale lifting, there should be
a delay of pcpn until later on Tue. Of course, there are slight
timing differences amongst the models in this time frame. For this
forecast, we will go with Fri afternoon as the time frame of the
highest PoP for mainly rain, though there will be a slight chance of
rain/snow earlier in the northwestern/western tier of counties.
Most model solutions depict a rapid end to the pcpn from west to
east Fri evening. The blast of arctic air will result in a
changeover to snowfall for a least a couple of hours over the
region, except perhaps for westernmost parts of southeastern MO,
before ending mostly by midnight. Less than an inch of snowfall is
forecast at this time for this fast-moving system. The deep freeze
should last at least through the weekend, with lows in the teens and
20s, and highs in the 30s to near 40 on Sat, possibly rebounding
some by the end of the day Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
For the WFO PAH 00z Monday TAF issuance, kept with the short term
concensus model guidance, which keeps nearly all of the KPAH TAF
sites in MVFR and briefly IFR (via TEMPO groups) through Monday
morning.
With periodic convective clusters expected this evening and a
broadscale convective line overnight, kept a greater number of
TEMPO groups moving ceilings and visibilities into IFR category.
The MSAS surface data is more suggestive a slightly further
southward variance from the current HRRR guidance, which favors
more lower ceilings through the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ004-005-007-010-014-
015-018-019.
Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>003-006-008-
009-011>013-016-017-020>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
701 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022
I have decided to extend the winter weather highlights along the
greater I-25 corridor region until 10 pm this evening. Light
steady snow is still ongoing per web cams and radar and roadways
will likely become slick due to decreasing temperatures.
/Hodanish
UPDATE Issued at 523 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022
With a couple of weak short waves still rotating around the
mid level trough, on-and-off snow showers will likely keep up
over the region. I don`t think we will see any signif accums, but
with temps dropping, locally slick roadways will be possible.
Likewise, I plan to keep the current hilites over the region going
for now. /Hodanish
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022
...Winter Weather gradually winding down this evening...
Key messages:
1) Snow will continue to diminish across the area this
evening.
2) Winter weather highlights will stay in place for a few more hours
until snow ends, though bulk of accumulation is finished.
Mid level circulation, evident in KPUX radar loop, was moving
eastward across the plains this afternoon, and will likely be near
the Kansas border by 00z. As a result, snow intensity was tapering
off across most of the area, though web cams around the region still
show some briefly moderate/heavy snow showers across mainly the
mountains and San Luis Valley. For the rest of the afternoon into
the evening, have kept the current set of highlights up as light
snow persists, though most will be able to expire on schedule over
the next few hours. HRRR and San Luis Valley obs suggest one more
wave of snow showers may push across the Sangres/Wets through 00z-
02z, with some additional accumulation of an inch or two, while only
light/minor additional amounts expected elsewhere. Overnight, as
first wave exits, next trough approaches after midnight, which will
likely produce some snow showers over the central mountains through
most of the night, while keeping clouds and occasional flurries
in place across the remainder of the area. Chilly night at most
locations given fresh snow cover, though with expected cloud cover,
didn`t go any colder than blended guidance. On Monday, continued
mostly cloudy with snow showers over the mountains through the day,
with perhaps a brief flurry or snow shower at lower elevations along
and west of I-25. Not expecting much more than an inch or two of
accumulation, mainly over the higher peaks of the San Juans/Sangres.
Max temps Mon well below average again, though a few peeks of sun
over non-snow covered portions of the plains will at least boost
readings above freezing for a few hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022
Key Messages:
1) Another system to bring snow areas over and near the higher
terrain Monday Night.
2) Brief warm up for Tuesday and early Wednesday followed by another
round of snow and well below seasonal temperatures into the end
of the work week.
Latest models are slower and a tad deeper with the elongated trough
digging across the Rockies Monday, and now indicate the broad upper
trough clearing southeast Colorado by 12Z Tuesday. The slower timing
of this passing system will lead to better chances of snow across
the area into Monday night with increased moisture and lift and
deepening east to northeast upslope across the plains. Snow winds
down from northwest to southeast into early Tuesday morning, with
another 1 to 3 inches possible over and near the higher terrain,
with the greatest amounts again favoring the east to northeast
slopes of the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mtns. as well as the Raton
Mesa and the southern I-25 Corridor.
A brief dry period with warming temperatures continues to be in the
forecast for Tuesday, as northwest flow aloft moderates across the
area before increasing and becoming more westerly Tuesday night and
into Wednesday, as the next unseasonably cold upper trough digs
across the Northern Tier and Intermountain West. Highs on Tuesday
look to warm into the 40s across the lower elevations and mainly in
the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain.
Latest operational models and ensemble data continue to differ on
the amplitude and strength of the system, with the ECMWF/EPS suite
still deeper, colder and slower with the cold upper trough digging
across the Rockies through the day on Friday, as compared with the
slightly less deep, slightly warmer and faster GFS/GEFS suite, which
has the passing through the Rockies Thursday night. Either way,
models do agree on increasing chances of precipitation across the
ContDvd later Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning with
increasing moisture within the increasing westerly orographic flow.
Models indicating a quick warm up across the plains Wednesday
morning ahead of the main cold front pushing south and west across
eastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Stratus to quickly fill in
across the plains behind the arctic front, with periods of light to
occasionally moderate snow fall expected areawide Wednesday night
through at least the day Thursday, as moisture and lift associated
with the digging trough. Snowfall will favor areas over and near the
higher terrain, with the potential for advisory amounts across the
higher terrain. However, if the slower and deeper solution is closer
to reality, snowfall could linger into Friday leading to greater
impacts areawide. With that said, I did not stray too far away from
the current NBM for pops and precipitation at this time. Again, the
main change I made to the current grids was to lower temperatures a
tad across the plains on Thursday, with highs in the teens and 20s
areawide on Thursday, save 30s in San Luis Valley. NBM spreads on
Friday at PUB are 36F to 16F, and did lower highs a tad on Friday to
account for the potential for the slower solution.
A drier and warmer pattern looks to set up for the weekend, as upper
level eventually builds across the Great Basin and into the Rockies,
though models do indicate the potential for more westerly flow
developing later Sunday and into early next week, which could bring
some precipitation into the ContDvd. As for temperatures, should see
highs warming to at and slightly above seasonal levels through next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MST Sun Mar 6 2022
At KALS, brief periods of snow showers and IFR vis 23z-02z, then
snow ends and conditions become VFR from 05z onward. Low risk of fog
after 10z, especially if skies clear, though haven`t mentioned it in
the taf yet.
At KCOS, still a few snow showers around late this afternoon, with
some brief excursions into IFR conditions possible until 00z.
Improving conditions expected this evening as snowfall tapers off
to flurries, though MVFR cigs will be slow to clear, lingering
through the night and into Mon morning.
At KPUB, IFR vis will gradually improve to VFR this evening,
as snowfall tapers of to flurries or brief snow showers. MVFR cigs
will linger through the night and into Mon morning, before gradually
lifting to VFR levels after 17z-19z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ072>075-079-080.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM MST this evening for
COZ076>078-083>087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN