Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/05/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM

 443 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Strong southwest wind gusts of 35 to 50kt will persist through
approximately 02Z before slowly diminishing. However, at least breezy
conditions will persist through the overnight period before
increasing again Saturday afternoon. Many areas of blowing dust/sand
have been noted on satellite imagery this afternoon and this will
create low visibilities across portions of western and central NM,
including KABQ and KSAF. A mix of rain and snow showers will continue
to move into northwest NM this evening, with brief mt obscurations
possible overnight across the northern mountains. These showers may
locally enhance wind speeds through the overnight hours, this
includes at KFMN and KGUP.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern through the next week will remain unsettled with
multiple disturbances bringing rounds of cooler temperatures, strong
winds, and precipitation. Strong winds this afternoon will be slow to
taper off and will likely remain breezy to windy through the
overnight hours. A storm system Saturday and Sunday will bring light
precipitation mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40.
Otherwise, strong winds are expected to continue through the weekend,
especially to areas south of Interstate 40. A cooling trend will
result in below normal temperatures through much of next week while
additional disturbances will bring additional light showers to
portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
South to southwest winds have strengthened over NM today with a 45
to 55 kt 700-500mb layer speed max overhead. Blowing dust is evident
on the latest Dust RGB loops and lower vsbys have been reported at a
few obs sites. Winds will likely peak btwn 4pm and 7pm with areas
along and south of I-40 seeing gusts up to 45 kt. The latest RAP and
HRRR solutions show the core of stronger mid and upper level winds
sliding thru southern NM tonight. High winds are likely to continue
at KSRR where a High Wind Warning is in effect. The upper level
storm system responsible for the winds will eject northeastward thru
the Four Corners tonight and allow rain and snow showers to spread
into the northern and western high terrain. The higher snow amounts
will be relegated to SW facing slopes of the Tusas Mts where 2-6" is
likely, except up to 10" possible on high peaks by late morning.

Saturday will feature another round of springs winds as flow aloft
veers westerly ahead of the next upper level storm system. Speeds
trended a tad lighter Saturday however guidance still supports gusts
up to 40 mph along the I-40 corridor over eastern NM. 700-500mb
layer winds will increase again over western NM late Saturday with
cold advection trending max temps several degrees cooler compared to
today. Deeper moisture and better lift will arrive with the second
storm system by Saturday night. A noteworthy lull in snowfall late
Saturday should provide a break for additional Winter Wx Advisories
over the high terrain of northern and western NM beginning Saturday
night.

Guyer

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Unsettled is the word through the remainder of the forecast period as
multiple storm systems bring strong winds and rounds of
precipitation. By Sunday morning, the third system from this
weekend`s series will be centered just west of the Four Corners as a
closed H5 low. Moisture advection and diffluent flow ahead of this
low will support additional rain and mountain snow shower development
early Sunday morning across the northwest which spreads eastward
towards the Sangre de Cristos through the late morning hours. Like
the two systems before it, it lifts northeastward through CO. Thus,
precipitation chances remain focused for the northern tier of the
area. Across the south, strong winds will continue to persist as a
potent jet rounding the base of the low bisects the state from the
NM Bootheel northeastward towards the northeast plains. 700mb winds
near 40 knots along and south of I-40 as well as across the eastern
plains will easily mix down to the surface thanks to continued deep
mixing heights. Speeds may be close to advisory criteria, especially
along and east of the Sacramento Mountains. Otherwise, the cooling
trend continues with these passing systems with most locations
expected to record below normal high temperatures. The exception may
be across the southeast plains where high temperatures may be able to
hang on to temps a couple degrees above normal thanks to the
downsloping winds.

A brief break may arrive by Monday morning, but the next system will
be dropping from the northern Rockies, deepening into a closed low
over UT by Monday afternoon. Continued moisture advection and
favorable dynamics ahead of this low will likely support shower
development across the northern tier of the area by Monday afternoon.
Model guidance suggests this system continues to dig into southeast
AZ through Tuesday morning before tracking eastward across the state
through the day on Tuesday. Moisture values aren`t impressive with
this system with PWATs forecast below 0.50", but it is the system so
far that lends itself to the best chances for precipitation making it
south of I-40.

Temperatures remain cooler in the wake of this system with
Wednesday`s high temperatures remaining below normal areawide. Yet
another system then dives southward from the PacNW starting Wednesday
morning. Increasing flow aloft ahead of it will support strengthening
westerly surface winds with widespread breezy to windy conditions
likely. Models don`t deepen this system significantly; instead they
only have it clipping northern NM on Thursday. This will once again
keep any precipitation chances focused across the north, but the jet
rounding its base looks to move overhead, likely resulting in
continued windy conditions through Thursday.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...
EASTERN...AND SOUTHERN NM BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

Widespread critical fire weather conditions today will focus more
into eastern NM by Saturday as cooler air and greater cloud cover
shift into central and western NM. Confidence on critical conditions
Saturday over eastern NM is not high enough to upgrade the Fire Wx
Watch. Haines values have trended low to moderate over most of the
area, with marginal humidities, and subcritical RFTI values. Even
colder air will move into NM Sunday with greater coverage of snow
showers across the north and west. Any lingering critical fire wx
will be focused across the southeast plains. The active pattern will
continue Monday and Tuesday with continued cold temps, strong winds,
and snow showers.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-106>109.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ205>208-212-214-215-219>225-227>229-231>234-241.

Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for the following zones...
NMZ104-108.

High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
 NMZ226.

Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ239-240.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MST Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ210.

&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

 948 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

Freezing drizzle over central ND still staying west of our
counties as east to northeasterly winds continue to bring dry air.
Think we probably won`t see much FZDZ in our area until winds
start to shift more north and northwesterly later on tomorrow
morning. Some reports of blowing snow from ND DOT, but not much
reductions to vis showing on webcams. Cloudy and quiet for our
area, with temps on track to bottom out in the teens and even low
20s above zero.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

Cloudy and quiet in our area, stuck between FZDZ over central and
western ND and the approaching snow and FZRA system coming up from
the south. East winds continue to bring dry air into our
counties, with lower stratus and FZDZ not an issue for us here
yet. Think our better chances of seeing any precipitation in our
southeastern counties will be with the southern system later
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Made some minor tweaks to
temperatures, but no big changes to what we have going so far.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

Precipitation, precipitation type, and wind speeds are the main
forecast challenges, associated with a Colorado Low that will
track through Iowa into western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. In this FA, the main impacts look to be across the
far southern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of west central
Minnesota.

Currently the low was still in northeast Colorado. Across this FA,
winds were nearly due easterly, which tend to limit the gusting
potential along and east of the Valley. Even to the west of the
Valley, there have not been much for wind gusts. There were also
quite a few clear holes over South Dakota into Southern Minnesota
and Iowa. A few cloud breaks have even pushed up into the
Jamestown to Devils Lake corridor. However, most of the FA remains
covered in clouds. However, cloud heights were increasing across
the southern half of the FA. Going forward into tonight, guidance
has pushed the potential for developing stratus west of this FA,
more into central or western North Dakota. The HRRR and HREF also
push the better probabilities for mixed precipitation west of the
FA too. For that reason, went ahead and removed the mention of
mixed precipitation from this FA tonight into Saturday morning.

By noon Saturday, the low should be somewhere over northwest Iowa,
with the pressure gradient increasing over this FA. Not seeing
very strong cold advection or pressure rises, but 925mb winds look
to range from 30 to 35 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Therefore, think wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible during
this time. Any precipitation should hold off until late Saturday
afternoon, and more likely by Saturday evening for the southern
Valley and west central Minnesota. Overall, that should mean low
impacts across the entire FA for most of Saturday. There could be
some patchy blowing and drifting snow in open country along and
west of the Valley. Do like the HREF representation of the
possibility of some mixed precipitation developing across the
southern Valley and west central Minnesota ahead of the snow late
Saturday afternoon or evening. The NBM4.1 shows up to a 30 percent
chance for some mixed precipitation in this area. After this, it
should become light snow, with amounts across this area ranging
from a dusting to an inch or two. Visibilities less than half a
mile are possible with the falling snow, along with the blowing
and drifting. Held off on any advisory across the south for now,
later shifts can take a closer look at that potential.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

Few impacts are expected in the long term period. Potential impacts
will be limited mainly to the time period later this week,
associated with a potential system. Although, impacts have not been
ruled out early in the period. There is just lower confidence in
them coming to fruition.

Sunday could feature some patchy blowing snow, mainly in open
country. The expanse of this blowing snow is dependent upon how much
snow is received leading up to Sunday morning and afternoon, as the
current snowpack is far from blowable in many areas. As split flow
in the upper levels merges, we will reenter northwesterly flow. This
pattern will remain through the end of the period.

Early in the work week comes the second possibility for impacts, as
a clipper moves into the area. This system is lacking moisture as of
now, and lacking a strong cold area behind it. At this time,
anything more than light snow and breezy conditions looks unlikely.
Even with newer forecast soundings showing better lapse rates and
mixing potential for stronger gusts, the majority of the snowpack is
crusted over. Again, any areas of blowing snow will be patchy and
isolated.

The next shot for precipitation will be later in the forecast
period. What appears in guidance to be a colorado low will begin to
affect the northern plains later in the week next week (sound
familiar to anyone?). This system, however, is too far out
temporally to say anything about its timing, track, or potential
impacts with confidence. Thus, we will just leave it at the mention
of the possibility for some snow later in the week. What we can say
is this system looks to have stronger CAA behind it, and will drop
our temperatures significantly on Thursday and Friday. There could
also be some wind chill headlines with this, looking at current
guidance, but too far out to say anything concrete.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

VFR conditions at all TAF sites with ceilings in the 4000-6000 ft
range. Should see some decrease to MVFR towards tomorrow morning
as a low pressure develops to our south. This sill not bring us
any precipitation, but could drop ceilings at KFAR and KBJI down
to IFR for a time tomorrow. Winds will also increase out of the
north, with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and higher gusts
possible. At this point think there will not be any BLSN impacts
to visibility at our TAF sites.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...JR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Portland OR

 302 PM PST Fri Mar 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers will linger across the area into tonight as low
pressure moves south over the nearshore waters. High pressure will
build in its place bringing drier, cooler air over the weekend. Next
chance for rain will likely be Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...GOES satellite imagery shows
an area of low pressure moving south across the Oregon coastal waters
near Brookings as of 1 PM. The bulk of the associated precip ahead of
the front is staying to our south near the Oregon, California border.
Low to mid level winds have remained out of the north, northeast
throughout the morning which has brought colder air south.
Temperatures are roughly 2 to 5 degrees colder across the CWA relative
to this time yesterday. Cold air advection aloft will increase the
instability throughout the day as the low dives south; LAPS
reanalysis CAPE values are right around 180 J/kg as of 2 PM. Boundary
layer temperatures will increase slightly with cloud breaks
supporting weak convective showers within the unstable environment.
Showers may be heavy at times but will likely stay below 0.05 inches.
The low is tracking farther south than models were expecting in
previous runs which means the wrap around moisture that was going to
bring a decent amount of QPF into Lane County and across the Oregon
Cascades looks to be diminishing.

The low will continue to push south over night moving onshore just
south of Capetown California this evening allowing winds to weaken
across the area overnight. Gradients from PDX to EUG are around 0.5
mb in multiple models including the RAP and NAM. Boundary layer winds
will also drop off; this will decrease chances for mixing near the
surface and will allow temperatures to drop to right around freezing
in many areas. Therefore, fog and frost are likely in low lying areas
tonight into Saturday morning.

High pressure will build across the NE Pacific and northerly flow
will persist through the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday afternoon
will be at or slightly below 50 degrees for much of the low
elevations. Clear skies will continue into Saturday night allowing
for good radiational cooling and frost development. Sunday will be
more of the same but slightly warmer and slightly drier. Daytime
highs will be in the mid 50s for the lowlands and fog/frost will be
more patchy. -BMuhlestein

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...High pressure will maintain at
least one more day of dry and mild weather early next week. Patchy
frost will be possible Monday morning as temperatures start off a bit
chilly, but expect temps to warm to near or slightly above normal by
the afternoon. Upper level ridging over the Pacific NW retrogrades on
Tuesday as an upper shortwave trough slides southward out of British
Columbia. This system brings increased chances for precipitation
across the forecast area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Deterministic
models still show timing and intensity uncertainty, but ensemble and
NBM guidance has continued to increase PoPs during this time period,
which leads to higher confidence of wet weather returning by mid-
week. Rainfall amounts will likely remain rather light across the
lowlands, but more onshore flow in the lower levels will enhance
orographics, especially in the Cascades. Snow levels generally around
3000-4000 ft Tuesday night are expected to lower to 1500-2500 ft by
Wednesday morning. Both NBM and ensembles indicate a decent chance of
3 to 6 inches of snow at pass level in the Cascades.

WPC cluster analysis shows a mean northwesterly flow aloft continuing
behind the system through Thursday. Chances for precip decrease with
drier weather more likely Thursday and Friday, but with nearly 25%
of ensemble members maintaining some precipitation, will stay near
NBM PoP guidance, mentioning at least a slight chance of showers
through the end of the week. The cool northwesterly flow is expected
to keep temperatures a few degrees below normal as well. Most models
and their ensembles then turn considerably wetter heading into the
following weekend. /DH

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs: Weather system offshore continues to shift
southward, pulling the better chance of showers south with it.
Showers are already showing signs of weakening and becoming more
isolated in nature. Will see mostly VFR conditions this
afternoon into the evening, except the brief MVFR ceilings from
some passing showers. Skies will be clearing from north to south
along with light winds will allow for the favorable conditions
for fog development overnight. HREF guidance shows the greatest
chance over the northern Willamette Valley and Columbia River area
in the 10-16Z timeframe with 40-60 percent chance of VIS less
than 1/2 mile. Will bring IFR vis and cigs to PDX, TTD and UAO.
Conditions should improve back to VFR with a nice sunny day
expected near 18z Saturday.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR going into tonight as showers are
currently dissipating and skies are clearing from the north.
Light winds and clear skies will likely allow fog development
tonight, HREF guidance shows at 40-60 percent chance of VIS less
than 1/2 mile near PDX, TDD and UAO in the 10-16z time frame.
VFR to return near 18z Saturday with sunny day expected. /Kriederman

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the northeast Pacific will maintain
northerly winds on the coastal waters, with gusts in the 20-25 kt
range tonight, then decreasing through the weekend. Seas of 6 to
8 ft this evening will build to around 10 to 11 ft over the
outer waters tonight into Sat morning, before easing back below
10 ft Saturday night.

High pressure remain over the region next week to keep calm and
benign conditions. Expect winds to stay 10 to 15 kt, with seas 5
to 8 ft. /Kriederman

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for coastal
     waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for coastal
     waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sacramento CA

 105 PM PST Fri Mar 4 2022


.SYNOPSIS...
Overall a somewhat low impact but unsettled forecast next 7 days.
Light valley showers (possibly a thunderstorm east and south of
Sacramento this evening) tonight and morning Saturday. Gusty winds
this evening in the Delta area and northern San Joaquin Valley.
Snow tonight into Saturday afternoon with some travel impacts
mountains. Pattern then turns dry and breezy at times next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Ensembles showing a closed upper low droping south into
California tonight originating from Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the
system gusty winds still look at track for the Delta and far north
and west portions of Northern San Joapuin Valley and current wind
advisory looks like a good call. EFI values highlighting this
area as well and expect gusts up to around 40 mph for a fairly
brief time ending by around midnight. Also this evening some
instability progged by NAM and HRRR east and south of Sacramento
also picked up by also by CAMs showing a few thunderstorms
possible this evening. Looks to be pretty widespread but some
lightning and small hail will be possible.

Overnight...as upper low slides over the top of the area don`t
expect much more than isolated lilght showers in the valley but
snow will occur in the mountains with snow levels dropping to near
2,000 feet by sunrise. This will bring some light accumulations to
upper foot hills but shouldn`t be much of an impact. Snow at
highest elevations not expected to be too high either with maybe a
foot at highest eleveatoins...but any weekend travel will surely
be impacted this evening and overnight into morning hours at least
some.

Light snow should continue early morning Saturday but overall
drying out from this quick moving system. Sunday northerly flow
aloft continues with main energy and moisture well to the south
for a clear dry day.

Monday...some energy does pass to our east which will set up
breezy west valley winds. Not looking to be a wind advisory threat
as of right now but just a continued fall look to pattern with dry
and breezy conditions.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Unforetunately
upper pattern in the extended period looking more like Fall than
winter/spring...definately not a wet pattern. Model clusters are
in agreement that generally a large scale trough to be in place
ver the central U.S. with ridging off the west coast. Some
differences with energy on the west side of the trough over the
west coast but only to spell differences in when it will be
windiest not the wettest. Right now EC Ensemble members showing
and supported by NBM wind grids that next round of wind would
possibly be Thursday into Friday. Will keep an eye on this as it
approaches of course as it may approach lower impact wind advisory
criteria. Rasch

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail across interior
northern California over the next 24 hours. Localized areas of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible in the
mountains due to snow showers. Slight chance of an isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible from Chico to Modesto, and
east into the foothills. Probability of occurrence is too low at
this time for TAF inclusion, but will monitor and amend if
conditions warrant. Gusty northwest winds 30-35 kts forecast over
northern area TAF sites with strong, westerly winds developing
through the Carquinez Strait and into the southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin Valleys late afternoon/evening with gusts
35-40 kts. Airport Weather Warning issued for KSCK.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for Burney Basin
/ Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta
County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$