Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/04/22

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 136 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Key Messages: - Synoptic scale storm system impacts forecast area Friday night through Saturday night - Highly variable impacts, freezing conditions with wintry mix to strong-severe thunderstorms. - Seasonable start to new work week with precipitation chances returning midweek Upper level water vapor imagery (6.95um) has the west coast ridge advecting east from a deep, tight trough off the west coast. Associated surface high pressure will be the primary influence of sensible weather for the rest of today and tonight. Steady temperatures will stick around tonight before significant warm air advection tomorrow morning The west coast trough will provide the necessary upper level forcing for this weekend`s weather maker as it lifts and tilts from the desert southwest to the Great Lakes. The accompanying surface low navigates northeast Friday night into Saturday bringing initial precipitation chances to the forecast area. Isentropic lift within the warm sector reaches 5-7 ubar/s on the 290K surface as the low pulls warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air northward. Precipitation type will be mixed at this time, as recent runs have shifted rain/snow line northward in proximity of the Interstate 94 corridor. HRRR (03.12Z) and RAP (03.15Z) model soundings exhibit this well as Medford max wet bulb temperatures reach 3C late Friday night concurrent with surface temperatures dropping by 7C to -3C. Further south, surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing as max temperatures on Friday reach 40s in most spots. Overall ice amounts for counties in central Wisconsin at this time nearing 0.15" which would reach headline criteria. If northward dprog/dt trend continues, expect freezing rain threat to follow suit, reducing impact in our northern counties. This initial precipitation band will shift into the Northern Great Lakes early Saturday morning with a lull in precipitation as the surface low churns its way up the Missouri River Valley. The passage of the warm front brings +3.5 standardized anomaly precipitable water (~1.0") values from +4.5 standardized anomaly integrated vapor transport (~750 kg/ms). In turn, surface temperatures will be 50-60F with dewpoints from 40-50F. The previous 4 ECMWF runs (as of 03.00Z) call for max temperatures a few degrees above that. Have kept with NBM highs for now. This warm, moist air mass brings moderate instability with it, ~500 J/kg of MUCAPE according to GFS soundings. The long, skinny CAPE profiles remain mostly elevated, with a slight cap near 900mb containing 50 J/kg of CIN at 06.02Z. Severe indices maximize around this time with 0-3km helicity reaching 300 m2/s2, 35 kts 0-1km shear and 40 kts 0-3km shear. Given the relatively low CAPE high shear environment, strong to severe weather is possible. Primary severe weather threats are wind (with a stout 50 kt low level jet), tornado (increased helicity/substantial 0-3km clockwise hodographs), and hail. Given these parameters, the storm prediction center has indicated portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin in a slight categorical risk (day 3) for severe thunderstorms. Additional impacts include the possibility of ponding water with the heavy rain threat. Ensemble QPF amounts show an increased southwest- northeast band of 0.5-1.25" set up from northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin for the ECMWF...slightly further north for the GEFS. Given the current frost depth, incoming liquid precipitation will not be able to penetrate soils very deeply and will instead runoff. River flooding will be less of a concern as rivers are currently exhibiting lower water levels and are expected to remain within bank. However, with melting conditions there are limited chances of ice jamming on smaller tributaries. As the disturbance ships out to the northeast, a surface cold front sags southeast returning mixed precipitation chances to the forecast area. GFS model soundings exhibit a limited mixed precip window with brisk, efficient cold air advection behind the surface low. Increased winds will also be a concern with the potent cold air advection steepening lapse rates in combination with the tightened surface pressure gradient. Have increased wind gusts Saturday night into Sunday due to this. Another shortwave stunts south out of Canada Sunday night into Monday, grazing the southeastern parts of our forecast area with it`s accompanying deformation band. Forecast trends have shifted impacts further southeast in recent runs with any further southeast trend likely missing our forecast area. For the rest of the work week, the pattern appears to remain active with another trough digging and amplifying out of Alberta after midweek. Temperatures expected to be seasonable with highs 35-40F. Overall, new work week forecast specifics will be highly dependent on exit behavior of this weekend`s system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 455 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 VFR conditions likely will prevail with mid/high clouds streaming across the area. Light winds will become SE overnight into Friday morning and increase during the afternoon to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts ahead of developing low pressure to the west. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Minimal changes were made to the forecast. Expanded fog in the southwest for tonight into early tomorrow morning. Also, increased PoPs further south for Friday afternoon. A chance of freezing drizzle could impact areas in the James River Valley tomorrow. UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 The forecast for tonight remains on track. Did add some fog across the higher terrain of the southwest where the HRRR and RAP indicate some development tonight into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Current surface analysis places low over the northern/central Rockies, with high over the upper midwest. Upper level analysis places modest ridge to the east of the Rockies, and low off the California coast. Northwest flow remains over our area. Speaking of our area, a little bit of light snow that set up from northwest to southeast over our area along an area of frontogensis has eased up quite a bit, though a little still lingers albeit very light. For tonight, focus for snow lifts north as CAMs have remained quite consistent with this, though have eased up a bit on total snowfall. With that said, still expect and inch or two north of Highway 2 by early tomorrow morning, highest close to the International Border. Upper ridge shifts east by early Friday, with flow becoming southwesterly as California low works its way into the desert southwest. Surface low starts to deepen up over Colorado/Wyoming, resulting in moist low level flow. Taking a look at forecast soundings, there still appears to be a risk of freezing drizzle developing over the area, which has been previously discussed. Still too far out to pinpoint exact areas, so have continued the broadbrushed lower chances going into Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 On Saturday aforementioned low ejects out of the Rockies and pushes over the central plains on its way towards Wisconsin. That will keep the greatest impacts south and east of us. What we will see is winds turning northerly bringing some cooler air into our area, and a transition from any lingering freezing drizzle to light snow. As for accumulation, greatest chances for that are far south central North Dakota into the southern James River Valley where a couple inches are possible. This will be east of the area by Sunday, with quiet weather remaining to start the week. Temperatures will warm some, but remain more or less around average. Models hint at a cooldown and some snow chances towards mid-week, but there is still some timing/intensity issues with this. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 Snow is expected across the north, mainly for KMOT for a few hours this evening, with MVFR ceilings and a period of MVFR/IFR visibility with the snow. Mainly VFR conditions tonight for both KBIS and KJMS. A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected across the west for KDIK and KXWA tonight. Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings will develop Friday morning and last through the day for all terminals. Freezing drizzle will also be possible over central and eastern areas. Put in a VCSH for this for now for KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS being this is the last 6 hours of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Johnson SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022 ...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE We will have a quiet weather night tonight. The only exception will be a chance for some light rain showers west of the Rio Grande during the overnight hours. Today the high and middle clouds moved in and it looks like they will stick around tonight. The clouds will move off during the morning hours on Friday. Speaking of Friday, we will see an upper level storm system approach the region on Friday which will increase our winds Friday afternoon. Right now our winds either are light or very shortly will become light and those light winds will continue tonight. Then Friday morning we will see our winds begin to pick up from the southwest. By around the noon hour we will start to see some gusty winds begin and then by late afternoon we will see strong and gusty southwest winds; 25020G35KT and we could see some blowing dust. I did mention blowing dust reducing visibilities for KDMN, but I held off, for now, on mentioning at the other TAF sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Tonight, a fetch of moisture will move over the Bootheel and Gila region of New Mexico to give those areas isolated to scattered showers as an upper level disturbance approaches. Friday, this system will bring strong, dry, and warm southwest winds to the region. Temperatures will be well above normal, and winds will rise to around 30 mph, bringing blowing dust and fire weather concerns. A cool front moves through Friday, which will bring near normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Another system approaches Sunday, bringing breezy to windy conditions back once again to the region. Next week, we continue with typical dry spring conditions as temperatures stay near or slightly below seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday... Current satellite imagery overlayed with 500mb RAP Analysis show upper level ridging off to the east, allowing moisture advection to increase from the southwest. Visible satellite imagery confirms that with a blanket of scattered to broken middle/upper level clouds across most of the area. In fact, we are beginning to see a few echo returns on radar, indicating that middle-to-upper level moisture is present. However, with dew point temperatures in the teens across most of the area, any echo return seen on radar are likely not reaching the surface. Upper level ridging will continue to move towards the east as cyclonic flow increase to our west out ahead of an approaching upper level low. With deep southwest flow dominant through the evening and overnight hours, and in combination with decent upper level dynamics and moisture, rain chances will increase for areas along and west of the Divide. SPC HREF members show rain showers across the NM Bootheel and Hidalgo County during the late evening hours, before spreading to the Gila Wilderness during the overnight hours. They do suggest showers lingering over into the Sacramento Mtns during the early to mid morning hours on Friday. With snow levels forecasted to remain above 8,500 feet, precip that falls will be liquid. Looking at convective parameters, CAPE and LI values don`t look impressive at all. However, with CAPE < 100J/kg and LI around 0, a lightning strike or two could be possible. Rain accumulations will be light, with a few places receiving 0.10-0.20 inches. Dry air quickly filters into the area during the morning hours on Friday, with skies clearing out gradually. By Friday morning, the upper level low will be onshore over southern California. This will place a stout mid to upper level jet streak across the southern New Mexico during the afternoon and early evening hours. This, in combination with a 997mb lee-side low over Colorado and it`s associated surface trough, will lead to a windy afternoon across the area. A Windy Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 8 PM on Friday for areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley and also for the east slopes of the Sacramento Mtns. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts can be expected within those areas. Areas of blowing dust will also be a concern during the mid afternoon hours. High temperatures on Friday will be in the middle to upper 70s across the lowlands. && .LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday... By Friday evening, the aforementioned system will have weakened into an open wave over the Central Rockies, while sending a Pacific `cool` front across our forecast area from west to east. A 40-50 knot H7 jet will remain in place, with westerly winds. While wind will decrease overall across the area due to boundary layer decoupling, east slope locations will continue to see strong wind gusts through the overnight due to mountain wave turbulance. Saturday is still a bit of a transition day between systems. Winds will remain breezy, especially west of the Rio Grande River, but not windy like Friday. Have kept areas blowing dust in the forecast despite the lower mixing heights and wind speeds as soil moisture will not have improved, even with the little bit of rain we receive Thursday night/early Friday. With cooler air in place, we`ll see temperatures drop Saturday to near seasonal average (~10 degrees lower than Friday). The next system will move northeast of the forecast area and into the Central Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be moving into the Southern Plains, while a low will move east of the region and into Central Mexico. The movement of the two will create a 7-8 mb pressure gradient across the CWA Sunday evening. However, upper level winds will not be as strong as Friday. Regardless, it will be breezy across the region, with the strongest winds this time focusing east of the Rio Grande River. Warmer air will be shunted further south because of this system, allowing cooler air to prevail. Lowland highs will be in the lower 50s/upper 60s on Sunday. Sunday night, another Pacific cool front moves through the region bringing in even cooler air. Monday and Tuesday will be the coolest days of the forecast with lowland highs in the 50s, with a few 60s; mountains will remain in the 30s/40s. Wind finally looks light overall. Yet another system approaches overnight Monday, and drops further south than any of the previous systems. This will be our best shot at rain as it moves through on Tuesday. However, don`t get your hopes up too much... it`s a quick system, and models keep backing off on moisture with each run. Temperatures will begin a slow climb upward as we move into midweek and northwest flow prevails. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and somewhat quiet weather conditions can be expected for the remainder of today. An upper level ridge and it`s associated axis will remain across the High Plains, east of the area this evening and into the overnight. With ridge axis to the east, mid to upper level moisture advection will continue through the overnight hours, with cloudy skies remaining overhead. Cyclonic flow will increase to the west, giving areas along and west of the Divide and into portions of the Sacs a chance of rain. That being said, wetting rain isn`t expected with scattered showers being light in nature with light accumulations. Snow levels remain above 8500 feet through the duration of precipitation, so all rain is expected. Broad, longwave troughing will dominate the upper level flow across the western US beginning on Friday. This setup and upper flow regime will set the stage for multiple embedded waves of energy to eject across the Central Rockies and Great Plains, leading to a favorable setup for windy conditions across the area. The first wave of energy will race across the Four Corners Region and Central Rockies on Friday, with gusty winds expected. In combination with critical Min RH values (< 15%), critical fire danger exists on Friday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect with most of the forecast area included, excluding NMZ113, TXZ055, and TXZ056. Southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph can be expected. The combination of high winds, low Min RH values, and slightly above average ERC values, any fires that develop could spread rapidly especially within the fine and flashy fuels. The progressive upper level flow pattern will dominate most of the US through the remainder of the period (this weekend and into next week). On Saturday, winds will remain breezy with Min RH values less than 15% across the lowlands, 15-25% over the mountains. Another wave of energy will eject across the Four Corners and Central Rockies on Sunday, setting the stage for another windy day across the forecast area. The winds, in tandem with near critical Min RH values, fire weather concerns will exist on Sunday. By the beginning of next week, cooler air and slightly higher Min RHs will decrease fire weather concerns for Monday and Tuesday && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 78 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 75 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 47 76 38 69 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 48 74 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 50 26 43 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 71 38 66 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 42 62 33 57 / 50 0 0 0 Deming 43 73 35 68 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 70 32 67 / 40 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 77 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 78 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 47 82 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 71 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 81 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 76 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 75 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 72 37 65 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 47 73 37 68 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 47 74 37 70 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 74 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 41 64 32 57 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 40 62 30 54 / 10 10 0 0 Timberon 39 60 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 67 23 63 / 40 0 0 0 Hillsboro 45 68 33 63 / 30 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 71 34 65 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 38 62 28 56 / 50 0 0 0 Hurley 37 66 28 60 / 50 0 0 0 Cliff 34 70 23 65 / 40 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 62 33 58 / 40 0 10 0 Faywood 43 65 32 60 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 42 71 31 68 / 30 0 0 0 Hachita 42 71 31 68 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 70 33 68 / 20 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 64 33 62 / 20 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for NMZ110>112. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday for NMZ402>411-415- 416. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
934 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ Another quiet night expected with a light SE or calm wind. We had quite a range of readings at 9pm, and as a result with chilly spots are calm in the low to mid 50s and a light SE breeze is still keeping some upper 50s to near 60 at the warmest. Likewise our forecast lows vary from low 40s to upper 40s for the most part. High pressure continues to ease off to the east and looks like some low clouds could lift into deep east Texas. HRRR is even showing some flashy QPF just to our south. More to come this weekend as southerly winds on Friday start to boost dew points temps with some clouds and showers possible this weekend. No changes needed to our first period. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR as sfc winds drop off to 3KT or less after 03Z for many of our sites. We will pick up after daybreak with light SE then veer a bit to due S around 10KT by midday. No low clouds expected at this time, but guidance is hinting at IFR at KLFK 10-15Z. We will check for consistency on that possibility with new data at our next issuance window late this evening. Eventually morning low clouds will be arriving for many sites this wknd ahead of our next fropa early on Mon. /24/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Thu Mar 3 2022/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/ Above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the short-term period with sfc and upper level ridging in place. Highs this afternoon are not quite to record territory with mid to upper 70s across the region and still cannot rule out a few spots hitting 80 degrees today with full sunshine now that clouds have cleared across our southern zones. Additional cirrus clouds will return from the west this evening and overnight with temperatures dropping back into the 40s to lower 50s as light sfc winds begin to trend more southerly due to advancing high pressure. On Friday, expect a bit more cloud cover as ridging shifts east and the flow aloft becomes more W/SW ahead of an ejecting upper trough out west. The clouds won`t do much to tamp down daytime temperatures as highs will recover back into the mid to upper 70s once again on Friday afternoon as S/SE flow increases a bit more. Milder temperatures will follow on Friday night with lows in the 50s as cloud cover will persist and gradually increase through the overnight hours toward daybreak on Saturday morning. /19/ LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday Night/ Starting 12z Saturday...The upper-air pattern as we begin the day Saturday will feature not one but two areas of low pressure, one working into the central Plains and the other centered near the California/Nevada border. This will keep our area under southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, southerly flow at the surface is expected and as a result, significant cloud cover is expected through the first part of the long term period. This will bring a continuation of above normal temperatures across the region through Sunday. The first trough mentioned above that was moving into the central Plains will gradually push to the northeast through the day and into the Nebraska/Iowa area. As this happens, a cold front will begin to move into portions of the southern plains through the day Saturday. This could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area on Saturday, with the greatest potentials coming for our western and northern zones as the cold front become more stationary from near the Red River northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The other trough that was centered near the California/Nevada borders will slowly eject eastward into the Four Corners Region Saturday and into Sunday. The aforementioned stalled front will remain in place for Sunday and should provide enough lift to produce some strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the area by Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. Strong low-level shear will be present and will favor an isolated tornado and damaging wind threat. Areas of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and extreme northwest Louisiana are currently outlooked for severe weather by the SPC. Eventually the stationary front will become less stationary and begin to push through the area Sunday night and into Monday morning with some lingering showers across our southeastern zones Monday afternoon. The passing front will bring a relief to the above normal temperatures we are expecting this weekend. By Tuesday, afternoon highs will only range from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the region before slowly warming back into the upper 60s by the end of next week. Rain chances will quickly return to portions of the area by Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as an overrunning set-up develops in the wake of the front atop a shallow cool airmass. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 48 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 30 MLU 46 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 43 77 55 73 / 0 0 0 70 TXK 48 77 58 75 / 0 0 0 50 ELD 44 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 20 TYR 51 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 50 GGG 49 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 50 LFK 49 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/19/33