Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/27/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east into tonight. A strong cold front will
approach Sunday and cross the area Sunday evening. High
pressure will build Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will
approach Tuesday night then move east from the region Wednesday
followed by building Canadian high pressure for Wednesday night
and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
945 PM Update... Latest nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery showed clouds starting to move into far northwest
portions of the forecast area at this hour. Otherwise, it was
mainly clear across the remainder of the forecast area. Expect
clouds to gradually increase across the region later tonight.
Made minor adjustments to push back the timing of snow showers
into the northern portions of the forecast area until after
midnight based on latest MRMS data and mesoscale models. No
adjustments to overnight lows.
previous discussion
Clear skies early this evening will give way to increasing
clouds and isolated snow showers across the far north and west
later tonight ahead of a 500mb trough moving across James Bay
into northeastern Ontario. Lows will generally be in the single
digits above zero, occurring early in the night across the north
and around the middle of the night Downeast before cloud cover
builds in. Initial snow shower activity should be light and
induced mainly by warm air advection even into Sunday morning.
However, heading into the afternoon an Arctic cold front will
move towards the area with steepening low and mid level lapse
rates ahead of it. MLCAPE in excess of 100 j/kg will develop
with snow squall parameters increasing above 3 across northern
and central Maine by the afternoon. The primary snow squall
threat is after about 20z, or 3 PM. The latest guidance from the
18z HRRR shows a pre-frontal trough forming a second line of
snow showers out ahead of the front, which may impact Downeast
areas during the late afternoon and evening. Given the degree of
instability across northern Maine, an isolated lightning strike
cannot be completely ruled out with the frontal passage. New
snowfall will generally be around an inch across northern Maine
with lesser amounts Downeast. However, more intense bands may
allow some isolated amounts up to 2 to 3 inches. Breaks in cloud
cover during the day combined with mild temperatures ahead of
the front will lead to some melting of snow on roads, which will
quickly refreeze with the passage of any snow shower or squall.
While the steep lapse rates should mix down winds of up to 30
kts prior to the frontal passage leading to patchy blowing snow,
current thinking is the main blowing snow will be with and
behind the frontal passage late Sunday afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Intense sn shwrs/possible sn sqls will be advcg WNW to ESE from
N Cntrl ptns to E Cntrl ptns of the FA Sun eve as a secondary
arctic cold front finishes crossing the Rgn. Llvl instability
and strong gusty NW winds with a strong sfc pres surge behind
the secondary cold front with result in areas of blsn across the
N even after most of the sn sql activity moves ESE into NB prov.
In addition, widely sct St Lawrence sn streamer shwr bands will
linger into the late ngt hrs ovr Nrn/Cntrl areas before
completely dissipating by erly Mon Morn. Most lctns across
Nrn and Cntrl areas will receive at least arnd an inch of snfl
with lcly 2 to 3 inches possible where sn bands linger longest
prior to sn shwrs ending late Sun ngt. Wind chills will likely
drop below -20 deg F across the N half of the FA, with a wind
chill adv potentially needed for late Sun Ngt into Mon Morn.
Otherwise, fair, brisk and cold for Mon thru Mon Ngt. Tues
looks to be fair and cold, with some recovery in high temps by
Tue aftn after msly sub-zero erly morn lows across most of the
FA N of the immediate coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another s/wv system alf and associated sfc low will approach
the FA from the W Tue eve, spreading msly lgt sn to the FA
ovrngt Tue ngt, with weak llvl warm advcn ahead of the system.
This fast movg system will then track E of the FA by Wed morn
with steady snfl tapering to sct sn shwrs erly Wed morn and
then ending by Wed aftn. Increased max PoPs in the into the
likely category for for msly SE ptns of the FA, where long range
model solutions indicate potential for several inches of snfl
with hi chc PoPs elsewhere for lesser snfl. PoPs will be
adjusted according future model trends as we near this event.
Turning fair and colder behind this system for Wed Ngt. Tdy`s
dtmnstc 12z GFS and to a lesser xtnt, CanGem models indicate
another follow-up clipper s/wv on Thu with potential sn/sn
shwrs, but the 12z ECMWF was much further S, not affecting our
FA. Based on consulting ensm 6 hrly QPFs for each of today`s 12z
dtmnstc models, we optd to show a chc of sn shwrs Thu for msly
the Srn Hlf of the FA this update and will monitor upcoming
model run updates. Otherwise, some clrg for Thu Ngt and Fri and
cont`d cold and brisk.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tonight: VFR with WSW winds 5 to 15 kts through 6z
tonight. After 6z, light snow showers and high MVFR ceilings
are possible at northern Aroostook terminals.
Sunday: VFR ceilings with tempo MVFR to LIFR visibility in snow
showers. Patchy blowing snow during the afternoon, then snow
squalls and more widespread blowing snow during the evening,
particularly at northern terminals. WSW winds 10 to 20 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun Eve...Nrn TAF sites: MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys
with sn shwrs and late aftn/eve areas blsn. Downeast TAF sites:
low VFR/MVFR clgs/vsbys in sn shwrs with patchy eve blsn. Strong
to very strong NNW winds all sites with possible llvl mech wind
shear.
Late Sun Ngt...Msly VFR with wdly sct MVFR clgs/IFR vsbys in sn
shwrs/blsn msly between KBGR and KPQI. Mdt to strong NW winds.
Mon - Tue Eve...all TAF sites VFR with lgt winds.
Late Tue Ngt - Wed Morn...all TAF site MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys in
lgt sn/sn shwrs. Lgt winds.
Wed Aftn - Wed Ngt...all TAF sites VFR with mdt WNW winds, bcmg
lgt at ngt.
Thu...Nrn TAF sites VFR with a slgt chc of sn shwrs. Downeast
sites MVFR-low VFR clgs with possible MVFR vsbys in sn shwrs.
Lgt to mdt NNW winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will increase to advisory levels
tonight, then winds gradually increase to Gale Warning levels
during the day Sunday. The Gale Watch has been converted to a
warning beginning at 18z.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Gales will cont ovr our waters Sun Ngt into
Mon Morn then slowly subsiding to SCA, and at tms, less than
SCA mid to late week. Kept close to blended wv model guidance
for fcst wv hts with wv composed of several spectral groups with
pds ranging from 3 to 5 sec upwards to 10 to 12 sec.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to noon EST Monday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/MStrauser
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...TWD/MStrauser/VJN
Marine...TWD/MStrauser/VJN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
859 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast tonight
into Sunday, spreading precipitation back into the area, including
possible very high elevation snow. Dry high pressure builds in
Monday and likely dominates our weather through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
900 PM Update...Precip is becoming a little more scattered in nature
as the stronger waves of upper forcing have pushed to the north.
Expect a relative minima in coverage over the next several hrs
before frontal forcing brings more widespread rain arnd daybreak.
With saturated llvls and td/s remaining abv freezing across the
mtns, not much of a snow chance except at the higher peaks
where a few tenths may fall before sunrise. Temps wont drop off
much in curtailed rad cooling, with mins in the lower to mid 30s
mtn valleys and lower 40s across the non/mtns.
As of 215 PM: Approach of an upper shortwave in the early morning
hours will further enhance the dynamic lift, expected to produce
widespread light precip across the entire CWA. Forcing remains best
in the mid to upper levels; the WAA will contribute but model omega
is mainly elevated. QPF is not too exciting. P-types may get
interesting. We are starting off relatively warm this afternoon; the
light precip earlier today helped bring dewpoints above freezing,
and the WAA has allowed even higher elevations to warm into the 40s.
Most guidance keeps low-level dewpoints/wet-bulbs climbing gradually
thru tonight. The sfc high just appears too weak to provide enough
CAA to overcome it. Temp profiles from NAM and NAMNest depict a
relatively deep layer just above freezing, so any snow generated
aloft should change to rain except perhaps in the highest elevations
of the northern mountains. Model output p-types from those models as
well as HRRR agree with the sounding analysis. Worth noting that the
HiRes-ARW features similar profiles albeit slightly colder, and
accordingly suggest wet snow. Confidence in the sfc temps/dewpoints
is sufficient to warrant lower snow amounts than we had previously
fcst, still well below advisory criteria.
PoPs will peak in the morning with jet streak beginning to shift
off to the east. Shortwave axis reaches the mountains Sunday
afternoon, with front reversing as cold front and shifting SE
by evening. For the Piedmont, this does not look to occur fast
enough to completely erode the low-level moisture before sunset,
so some areas of cloud/fog may persist. Temps Sunday will reflect
the clouds and rain within the wedgelike airmass; maxes have been
kept near raw model values.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday: Dry high pressure builds in through the
short term. Should any isolated NW flow precipitation continue
into Sunday night, it should be mostly rain and increasingly
isolated, with a few flakes possible above 3500 feet and no
additional accumulation expected. In general, though, guidance
suggests that as freezing levels drop, profiles will already be
undergoing significant drying, so the potential for precipitation
looks increasingly small. Gusting into the teens is likely
overnight and into Monday. The most potent 850mb flow will
cross the region overnight, when mixing will be least efficient;
the pressure gradient should weaken significantly after sunrise.
So, winds still do not appear to warrant any Advisory products.
Otherwise - Monday afternoon`s temperatures are on track to stay
near or just below normal, as good solar heating counteracts
weakening CAA behind the departing front. Monday night, temps
drop several degrees below normal Monday night, as clear, dry
profiles allow radiative cooling to take hold. Tuesday, guidance
indicates a brief shot of upper forcing; although it will not
be enough to produce any precipitation, it could result in some
enhanced cloudiness and restrict Tuesday afternoon`s highs from
quite reaching normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM EST Saturday: Dry and mild conditions continue through
Friday. A weak cold front trails behind Tuesday afternoon`s
vort lobe and crosses the Piedmont Wednesday morning with little
fanfare; then on Thursday night, a backdoor cold front swings out
of the north as high pressure slides southeast across New England.
This front, too, will encounter air far too dry over the Carolinas
to produce any activity.
Saturday, as high pressure pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast, flow
over the Carolinas turns southeasterly, and a chance for rainfall
returns to the region ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.
For now, only light, widely scattered rain is anticipated on
Saturday, with the better dynamics not returning until past the
end of the extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A slow-moving and rainy cold front will cross
the area thru the TAF period. All sites will be affected with
MVFR/IFR VSBY due to -SHRA at times along with lowering CIG
restrictions. Went more pessimistic with LIFR CIGs across most
areas including KCLT as little wind will be available to help mix
out the llvls into the late morning and early afternoon. Some
improvement will be had west to east with MVFR conds returning at
KAVL arnd 20z and a little later across the non/mtn terminals. Weak
flow will be ill-defined as far as direction, but generally
anticipate a sw/ly to w/ly sfc wind ahead of the front then veering
nw/ly late in the period. At KAVL, winds will remain aligned nw/ly
thru the TAF period.
Outlook: High low-level moisture will persist thru Sunday night
across the NC mtn valleys and Piedmont with a chance of flight
restrictions continuing thru daybreak Monday. Sfc high pressure
returns Mon afternoon allowing for VFR conditions thru mid-week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SBK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
853 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022
...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...
Weak, nearly stationary frontal boundary is south of the area
this evening, while a surge northeast winds is moving down the
southeast GA at 830 PM. This surge of winds is accompanied by low
stratus which will be moving into extreme northeast FL within the
next 1-2 hours. The frontal zone to our south appears to shift
back north into northeast FL as a warm front by Sunday morning.
Model soundings and JAX 00z sounding show the potential for fog
development as the stratus moves in and lowers toward the sfc.
Main updates to the forecast was to adjust sky cover as the
stratus is moving in fairly quickly from the northeast. While
dense fog is likely in areas, there is some model disagreement
between HRRR and HREF, with the HREF mainly reflecting patchy
dense fog. The MOS guidance suggests this as well. This is aligned
with the latest forecast so not making too much change to the fog
wording for tonight. We still may need a dense fog advisory over
portions of the area. Lows tonight in the 50s most areas.
.MARINE...
Current forecast on track with northeast winds near 8-15 kt and
seas up to 2-4 ft with dominant periods of 10 seconds. Winds may
back off a bit after about 4-5 AM as the northeast wind surge
weakens and the front to our south works northward. An isolated
shower or two is also possible late tonight/Sunday morning over
northeast FL waters but too small chance to put into the forecast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [657 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A surface front was draped across central FL with a light NNE flow
over the local area and warm temperatures ranging in the mid 70s
to low 80s under sunny skies across SE GA and partly cloudy skies
across inland NE FL under a diurnally enhanced cumulus field. An
expansive bank of stratus clouds was edging southward from the SC
coast this afternoon, and this bank will approach on SE GA counties
and marine waters this evening and continue to settle southward down
the local NE FL Atlantic coast overnight tonight. As the airmass cools
tonight, this bank of stratus will advect farther inland and lower
toward the surface, creating areas of fog. Guidance suggests the more
persistent fog will advanced toward the Highway 301 corridor through
sunrise Sunday morning, with patchy dense fog potential extending
toward the Atlantic coast. A dense fog advisory may be needed for
portions of the forecast later tonight. Temperatures will be a
little more mild tonight and range in the mid 50s inland to near
60 along the Atlantic coast under thickening low stratus and fog
and light onshore flow.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Synopsis...The best, albeit low, chance of rainfall for the
upcoming week will begin Sunday evening for SE GA then shift
southward with a chance showers across NE FL Sunday night into
Monday as a weak surface low develops along a lifting warm front
across the FL peninsula under a passing mid level short wave
trough. Measurable precipitation from this system is not expected
to be much, generally less than 0.10" for most areas with a low
chance of near 0.25# for eastern SE GA and potentially parts of NE
FL (east of Highway 301) into Monday. Temperatures will be the
coolest of the week Monday and range in the 60s for many areas.
Sunday & Sunday Night...After morning fog and low stratus lift
across eastern zones, continued warm and mostly dry with above
normal highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland with an afternoon
sea breeze keeping the Atlantic coast cooler with highs in the
mid/upper 70s. A dominant west coast sea breeze will merge with
the east coast sea breeze near the I-95 corridor in the late
afternoon, and there could be an isolated sea breeze induced
shower for portions of SE GA and potentially NE FL north of JAX
where a little more mid level moisture will infiltrate into the
afternoon. The other area of increasing rain chances into Sunday
evening will be across our NW GA zones, roughly along and north of
a Pearson to Jesup line, where the a broad surface low/thermal
low will develop along a frontal zone ahead of an approaching mid
level short wave trough. Expect few to scattered showers to continue
to edge southward through midnight Sunday night as the front
settles southward across SE GA. After midnight Sunday night
through sunrise Monday morning, anticipate a gradual increase in
showers or patches of stratiform rainfall across our southern GA
zones and into NE FL as upper level dynamics phase with surface
convergence near the trough axis.
Monday & Monday Night...A cloudy, cool day for the forecast area
as the mid/upper level short wave trough deepens overhead with the
surface front shifting southward across NE FL through the day. A
surface low is expected to form offshore of the local Atlantic
coast into the afternoon, with an increase in shower activity for
our coastal counties, extending inland toward the I-95 corridor
and St Johns River basin, with decreasing rain chances farther
inland and to the NW across SE GA into the afternoon. Mon night,
the upper level trough and surface low press downstream, with
precip potential tapering off locally, although breezy coastal
conditions and a low chance of coastal showers will continue
overnight. High temperatures Monday will range below normal in the
low 60s across SE GA to near 70 across our inland NE FL zones
midday before the front settles southward into the afternoon.
Skies become partly cloudy inland Monday night as temperatures
cool into the low/mid 40s well inland under northerly drainage
flow between the departing low offshore and a surface ridge
building in from the western Gulf Coast region.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Synopsis...After Tuesday, a warming trend with dry conditions. No
frost/freeze events. Fog potential Wed/Thu nights.
Tuesday...Cool and breezy under NNE flow at the local beaches
with a low chance of a light shower or sprinkle as coastal trough
lingers offshore with an approaching mid level short wave trough.
Farther inland, mostly dry conditions are expected (west of St.
Johns River basin NE FL and I-95 corridor SE GA) as drier
northerly flow funnels across the area around a low level ridge
building eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures will
warm a tad toward climo values with highs in the upper 60s/low
70s. Tuesday night high cirrus begins to thin overhead as the
short wave moves across the local area with coastal clouds and
light shower potential shifting southward down the NE FL coast as
the surface ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures will cool
below climo values near 40 across inland SE GA under the ridge
axis while NNE onshore flow along the FL Atlantic coast will keep
mins more mild in the low 50s.
Wednesday through Saturday...A warming and drying trend ensues as
an upper level ridge builds in from the west and surface high
pressure builds eastward across south GA through Thu. There is a
low chance of a coastal shower for NE FL (south of St. Augustine)
Wed as an inverted coastal trough shifts down the coast as the
ridge builds in from the WNW, but overall dry conditions will once
again prevail across the forecast area by mid-week. Fri the
surface ridge weakens as a backdoor cold front slides down the SE
Atlantic Bight and moves inland Fri evening, with local winds
transitioning to ENE into Saturday. Still looks dry, with but some
more coastal clouds and an increasing rip current risk at local
beaches into the weekend. Temperatures will moderate into the 70s
to low 80s inland through the upcoming week with lows in the 40s
inland Wed morning rising into the 50s into the weekend. Fog
potential will increase Wed & Thu nights.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]
Low stratus (likely at IFR) about to move into SSI at 00Z, and just
a matter of time before moving into the rest of the TAFs tonight.
Forecasting JAX metro TAFs to realize low stratus at IFR near
05Z-06Z, with GNV a few hours later. Ceilings and visibilities
may further drop with LIFR and potentially VLIFR as the stratus
settles down toward the surface as sfc winds lighten with
visibilities occasionally below 1/2 SM. Thus, we have TEMPO
groups for LIFR or VLIFR ceilings/vis levels in the early morning
hours. Sfc heating and shifting winds will allow fog and low
stratus to dissipate, albeit slowly Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are forecast to return after 15Z with light southerly
winds across the TAF sites, but some suggestion in model guidance
that it may take another hour or so to dissipate, especially for
SSI.
.MARINE...
A frontal zone across central Florida will lift northward Sunday,
with areas of fog and low stratus tonight into early Sunday
morning on the north side of the front which will likely bring
low visibility to local waters.
A wave of low pressure will develop along the front and cross the
local area Sunday night into Monday with an increase in shower
activity. The low pressure system will strengthen east of the
local waters late Monday, with an increase in northerly winds and
building seas near Advisory levels over the outer waters. The low
will track farther east, away from the the local waters Monday
night as surface high pressure builds in from the Gulf Coast
region. The surface high will dominate over the local waters
through the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Sunday.
.FIRE WEATHER...
After morning fog Sunday, above normal warmth will continue with
an increase in minimum humidity as a warm front lifts northward
over the area. A stronger west coast sea breeze is expected Sunday
afternoon, with a low chance of showers near the sea breeze
merger east of Highway 301 and toward the SE GA Atlantic coast
late Sunday afternoon. Warm conditions and elevated SW winds will
create high daytime dispersion for the I-10 corridor Sunday
afternoon, including the Osceola NF and Okefenokee NWR.
Rain chances increase for inland SE Georgia Sunday afternoon
(generally after 5 pm) as a wave of low pressure develops along
the frontal zone and crosses the local area through Monday.
Scattered showers will increase in coverage Monday as the system
moves over the area. Cloudy skies and cool temperatures with the
passing frontal system Monday will create low daytime dispersion.
This will be the best period for some wetting rainfall in a few
areas over the next week, but most locations will likely receive
less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall.
Drier conditions return mid-week with critically low humidity
expected for inland SE GA Wednesday, expanding southward to
include the Suwannee River Valley into Thursday and portions of
the I-10 corridor. Local drought is further developing, with
portions of the Suwannee River Valley and coastal SE Georgia
highlighted within "Moderate" drought on the USDA Drought Monitor.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 53 77 50 63 43 / 0 20 40 30 0
SSI 58 71 54 62 51 / 10 30 50 50 20
JAX 56 79 55 64 52 / 10 10 40 50 20
SGJ 60 77 57 67 55 / 10 10 20 50 30
GNV 57 81 55 70 49 / 10 10 20 40 10
OCF 58 82 56 74 52 / 0 0 10 30 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
518 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
Very dry air will remain across wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight
through Sunday night. Precipitable water will be near 0.15 inches.
Higher moisture, near 0.20 to 0.25 inches is shown by the HREF model
moving in late Sunday night and Monday morning. Generally clear
skies should prevail tonight and Sunday. Thereafter, the approach of
a backdoor cold front Sunday night might produce some cloudiness
disrupting strong radiational cooling processes.
The temperature forecast tonight leans on the guidance blend plus
bias correction for lows in the teens and single digits. The RAP
model shows increasing moisture across ncntl Nebraska and teens are
in place for lows in that area tonight.
The guidance blend produces highs in the 50s Sunday and this is
close to the 50th NBM percentile. The 75th gives highs in the lower
60s. Given the h850mb temperatures are predicted to rise to around
5C by late afternoon, 50s for highs Sunday would appear to be the
best fit. The GFS indicates mixing heights near h850mb Sunday
afternoon.
The temperature forecast Sunday night uses the short term model
blend plus bias correction with a 3 degree temperature mark down in
the valleys for drainage cooling. Temperatures aloft remain around
5C and lows in the teens and 20s are in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
There is not much change in the forecast Monday through Thursday.
A fairly sharp upper level trof should form off the West Coast
early next week and this would drive warm air across the Rockies
and into Nebraska. Temperatures aloft at h850mb should warm to
around 10C Tuesday and continue warming to near 15C by Thursday
morning.
The models show a backdoor cold front affecting ncntl Nebraska
Thursday. By that time sfc low pressure will have formed across the
cntl high Plains and this should pull the front very slowly west.
There is a very real chance 70+ temperatures will develop across
swrn Nebraska Thursday with cooler readings north and east.
Rain chances begin Thursday night which is too fast. POPs have been
marked down to isolated during this time. There is just too much dry
air for rainfall at this point. In fact, the models show moisture
returning Friday night, so the Friday forecast for chc POPs is
questionable forecast confidence is low.
It might be best to wait until Friday night, Saturday or later when
an upper level trof will cross the Rockies and emerge onto the
Plains. It is during this time that the GFS and ECM ensembles
suggest rain or snow chances will commence.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
VFR will continue for western and north central Nebraska terminals
through Sunday afternoon as the sky remains mostly clear. Somewhat
breezy west winds taper quickly after sunset this evening and
resume by midday tomorrow.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
914 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022
.DISCUSSION...00Z upper air analysis depicts a mid-level longwave
trough axis stretching from the Central Plains back through the
Texas Panhandle with a lead shortwave embedded within southwest
flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This has helped to
provide some lifting and development of overrunning precipitation
across the region this evening. As of 8 PM CST, temperatures
across the Mid-South remain above freezing.
Rain has spread into the Mid-South this evening affecting areas
along and south of I-40 initially with precipitation beginning to
spread into Northeast Arkansas over the past hour. METAR reports
indicate rain at most sites with JBR reporting unknown
precipitation as of the 9 PM observation. This precipitation may
be perhaps in the form of sleet.
Latest short term model trends indicate precipitation continuing
into the overnight hours with a gradual tapering off of
precipitation west of the Mississippi River overnight. Overall
forecast is on track at this time. Monitoring potential for a
small Winter Weather Advisory over Northeast Arkansas but
confidence in impacts remains too low at the moment to issue one.
Nonetheless, will continue to monitor trends over the next hour.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022/
UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022/
DISCUSSION...
A cold and gloomy day across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are mainly in mid to upper 30s areawide. The
exception is portions of northeast Arkansas, where Jonesboro is at
32F. Showers have over-produced all day over north Mississippi.
Reports of sleet mixed with rain have been plentiful at Tupelo
throughout the day.
Hi-res models are consistent with more rain overspreading the
Mid-South from the southwest after sundown. Model soundings
suggest that some initial sleet will be mixed in with rain as
precipitation spreads along and north of I-40. With relatively dry
air beneath the 850mb layer, some wet bulb cooling will occur and
air temperatures may drop to near freezing along and north of
I-40. Confidence remains lower than expected with respect to
wintry weather, however, the threat for minor ice accumulations
cannot be understated. Lest not forget this morning. Nevertheless,
a wintry mix will be possible along and north of I-40 tonight.
Sleet, freezing rain, and snow are all possible, however, QPF
totals will be very light or less than five hundredths.
The majority of the rain will move out by Sunday morning and high
pressure will remain in control through the latter part of next
week. Expect the return of sunshine and significantly warmer
temperatures. High temperatures will climb to near 70 degrees by
late week. We will also prolonged period of dry weather. The next
chance of rain won`t arrive until next weekend.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Gradual transition to MVFR and IFR will commence in the early/mid
evening, as upper level disturbance and precip move in from
central and southern AR. Latest HRRR hourly guidance continues to
depict precip as all liquid, with surface temps above 32F/0C.
Given the dry under the higher deck aloft, some -IP may mix in
with the rain late this evening and early overnight. Any -IP that
falls should melt.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$