Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/26/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 .AVIATION... (26/00Z TAFs) At the I-35 sites, MVFR CIGs, except brief low end VFR at KAUS early this evening, lower to IFR by Saturday morning as periods of -RADZ impact the sites. There is a potential of even lower CIGs/VSBYs on Saturday, however, chances too to mention, for now. Northerly winds of 7 to 14 KTs prevail with a few gusts to 22 KTs. At KDRT, low end VFR CIGs gradually lower to MVFR overnight. East to southeasterly winds 6 to 10 KTs prevail. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)... This afternoon, RAP analysis indicates a 1040mb sfc high over the central Plains that is forecast to weaken somewhat as it slowly shifts eastward. Locally, flow is SW aloft but more out of the SSW to S at 850mb over a low level inversion. Cold N to NNE sfc winds will continue through the short term for our central and eastern areas. Isolated drizzle has been observed through the day, but increasingly moist isentropic upglide tonight over the shallow cold airmass will lead to a gradual increase in coverage of drizzle and eventually isolated to scattered light rain showers from SE to NW. Temperatures are at or above freezing across the region this afternoon, however we do anticipate that temperatures in much of the Hill Country may fall into the 30-32 degree range after 1am Saturday. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as a result, mainly on elevated roadways in the region north of Rocksprings to Boerne to Burnet, with the heavily-populated I-35 corridor safely outside the risk area. However, sfc dew points will take a bit of time to moisten up in the Hill Country, and QPF in the region is anticipated to be less than 0.02". Confidence in any ice accretion is low at this time, but cannot be ruled out in the 3am-9am time frame. Given this, for now we`ll have an SPS in place for the potential for isolated slick spots on roadways in the AM, but we will monitor through the evening and overnight as a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if chances for impacts increase. We`d like to advise against taking hi-res model ice accumulation maps at face value, as they`ve consistently been overblown this week and during most of our winter events this season. Temperatures should rise back above freezing areawide by mid to late morning, on our way to highs near 40 northeast and in the low to potentially mid 50s along the Rio Grande. Scattered shower activity will continue mainly east of US-281, although a brief sprinkle can`t be ruled out as far west as Uvalde. PWATS along and east of I-35 will exceed 1" for a time on Saturday afternoon. However, with dry SW flow aloft, saturation will never exceed 7-8 kft so most of the activity should remain light. Drier air will trickle in from NNW to SSE through Saturday night and so showers will be mainly relegated to the Coastal Plains after midnight. In all, most areas will see less than 0.10" of precip with a few locations perhaps picking up close to 0.25" east of I-35 and north of I-10. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Finally some relief in the cold weather is in sight! Clearing is expected to take place from north to south Sunday morning, with sunshine in the afternoon and high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s east to mid 60s west. The clear skies and light winds will allow for favorable radiational cooling Sunday night. But after a cold start Monday morning temperatures are forecast to rebound into the 60s across the entire area in the afternoon. A continued warming trend is expected through the week. There remains disagreement in the models with the handling of an upper level system across the Desert Southwest Tuesday and its evolution eastward and potential for rain chances across South Central Texas Wednesday into Thursday. We have followed closer to the NBM PoPs and for now will keep mention of showers out of the forecast until better clarity in the guidance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 34 43 36 57 33 / 30 60 40 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 34 43 35 57 30 / 30 60 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 33 44 36 60 32 / 30 60 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 32 40 32 57 30 / 20 60 20 - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 39 54 42 67 38 / 0 10 - - 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 33 42 34 57 30 / 30 60 40 - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 34 48 37 64 31 / 20 30 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 33 43 35 59 30 / 30 60 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 37 45 38 57 32 / 40 70 60 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 34 44 38 60 35 / 30 50 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 37 47 40 63 35 / 30 50 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...04 Long-Term...Oaks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
901 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... The final band of snow continues to drop south across the area and will allow for up to an additional couple of inches accumulation before it is all said and done. Dry and seasonable weather is expected for the weekend before a strong cold front crashes through the region Sunday evening. Snow showers, some heavy, and gusty winds will accompany it. Temperatures will fall into the single digits below zero in the mountains and single digits above zero south. Monday will only teens temperatures topping out in the teens and 20s. Below normal temperatures are expected to remain in place through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 900 PM Update... With snow coming to an end... and visibilities fast improving... have taken down the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for this event. Temperatures continue to dive especially toward the north so have done another spruce up of overnight temperatures to account for this. Satellite shows the back edge of the upper level cloud deck is approaching the international border, so am expecting stars to make an appearance on this chilly night... fresh snow will likely allow temperatures to dive even more where the clouds clear out. 555 PM Update... Quick update for the next aviation forecast, focusing on winds trending down through the overnight period. Also touched up temperatures... low pressure rapidly deepening south of Nova Scotia has pulled around a cold ageostrophic wind from the north with temperatures tumbling into the single digits this evening. The PoP forecast is well on track. The broad shield of stratiform snow accompanying the upper level trough is decreasing in intensity according to reflectivity (and a check out the window). Won`t pull down the headlines quite yet... as some areas of poor visibility in snow are still being observed over the populated corridor. Previously... Surface low south of Nantucket will pull east through this evening as short wave crosses northern New England. This short wave will allow for a surface trough to extend northwestward from the low to keep snowfall going across much of the area for the rest of the afternoon with snowfall ending between 5 and 7 PM. Latest radar has shown persistent snowband over northern New Hampshire into the western Maine mountains with surface obs reporting moderate to heavy snow under this band. Latest RAP analysis shows this band is associated with a deepening DGZ with large dendrites observed on area webcams contributing to visibility reduced to 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times. This band is expected to pivot and slide southeastward over the next couple of hours with continued difficult travel expected into the evening commute with the potential for snowfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour. Additional snowfall is expected to range from 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts in areas with greater residence time under the pivoting heavy snow band. Will continue to hold onto the Winter Storm Warnings and Advisory with this package due to continued impacts expected into this evening. Low pressure continues to track east into the western Atlantic tonight with drier air working into the region on north winds. Skies will turn mostly clear towards Saturday morning with lows dropping into the single digits below zero across the north and single digits above zero across the south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will nose in from the west Saturday for fair weather with highs ranging from the upper teens north to upper 20s across the south. High pressure will then sink southward Saturday night as a cold front starts to approach from the NW towards Sunday morning. This approaching cold front will bring increasing clouds across the north with winds shifting out of the southwest. Lows Saturday night will generally be in the teens area wide. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: Largely at of below normal temps expected thru the extended. A couple strong shots of colder air will also ensure a more continental air mass origin and drier than normal conditions. Impacts: Main concern will be shot of very cold air Sun night into Mon. Given the magnitude of cold and gusty winds that accompany it some apparent temps near 20 below are possible in the mtns. Also some areas of moderate freezing spray are possible on the coastal waters. Will finally have to keep an eye on snow squalls Sun evening that may affect end of vacation week travelers. Forecast Details: The most impactful weather looks to be at the beginning of the extended. A strong but brief shot of bitterly cold air will drop out of the Arctic and cross the region Sun into Mon. While Sun may be seasonably mild...Sun night things go downhill. Strong CAA will drop temps into the low teens at the coast and below zero in the mtns. Gusty winds will lead to some wind chills approaching 20 below. A wind chill advisory may be necessary for some zones Sun night. Temps Mon do little in the way of significant warming. Despite stronger late Feb sun...we will still struggle into the 20s south of the mtns...teens north. Given the strength of the cold front some snow squalls are also possible. While there are not many hi-res models that have a window into the frontal passage yet...the 3 km NAM does show convective elements along the front. With the main shortwave pushing thru western Maine...this would also be the focus for squalls. Things beyond Sun/Mon look quite tame in comparison. Another shortwave is expected to cross the area Wed/Thu and may bring some light snow to the area...but again large amounts of QPF are not anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot is expected behind that...but not quite as cold as Sun/Mon. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Snow and low cigs will bring continued IFR/LIFR conditions until 00Z this evening. Conditions will gradually improve after 00Z with VFR expected by early Saturday morning. VFR is expected Saturday into Saturday night as high pressure builds into New England. Long Term...Isolated IFR or lower conditions possible south of the mtns...with areas of IFR or lower conditions north as a cold front crosses the region Sun. SHSN will be most persistent north of the mtns...but cannot rule out some making it to the coast especially with the boundary itself. Surface gusts near 25 kt possible into Mon with CAA. VFR conditions expected thru midweek. && .MARINE... Short Term...Low pressure south of Nantucket will trek east into the western Atlantic with northeast winds turning northerly in its wake and SCA conditions expected into Saturday morning. High pressure builds in from the west Saturday with winds and seas dropping below SCA conditions. A cold front approaches northern New England late Saturday night with increasing SW flow ahead of the front. Long Term...Strong cold front crossing the waters Sun may bring a round of gale force gusts outside of the bays into Mon. Much colder air will also bring a risk of moderate freezing spray...especially north of Cape Elizabeth. Winds and seas gradually diminish into mid week before another round of SCA conditions is possible late in the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154. && $$ UPDATE...Casey NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
604 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR ceilings are mostly prevailing this evening, however a return to MVFR is expected overnight in the north. A mix of MVFR and VFR is possible elsewhere. Most all sites should return to VFR for tomorrow, with the Delta lingering longer into the day with MVFR. Some light rain will be possible at KGLH/KGWO overnight into early tomorrow but other sites may remain dry. /28/ && .DISCUSSION... Tonight & Saturday... Tonight: As strong sfc high builds SE out of the Plains through the Ozarks, digging shortwave trough & strengthening upper jet dynamics will aid in favorable synoptic pattern. Moist, low-level isentropic ascent will keep moisture around +1 inch PWs streaming in, keeping widespread cloudiness through the period. Some increase in rain chances across the Delta, particularly in extreme SE Arkansas, might support a very brief period of some brief freezing drizzle around or just after daybreak. HRRR indicates this potential & very low probs from WPC in the far NW Delta. However, such shallow moisture depth & only being right around freezing limits confidence of development &/or impacts. For now, will hold off any mention. With cold air & strong high pressure building in, lows will fall into the low 40s SE to mid-upper 30s elsewhere. Saturday: As sfc high builds into the TN Valley, moist ascent will persist, helping moisten the column more into the aftn hours. This will help PWs climb to around 1.2 inches by mid-aftn. This will support more scattered rain shower coverage for areas NW of the Natchez Trace. With NE CAA & cloudy skies, another raw day will be in store. Highs will only fall into the low 40s along & NW of the Natchez Trace to low 60s in the SE. Leaned towards raw guid for highs. /DC/ Saturday night through Friday... Saturday night into Sunday, after a brief period of mostly dry conditions over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave will initiate southerly flow into the region. This will allow for a restoration of surface moisture Saturday night, when precipitation chances will increase from the northwest as reach PWATs ~1.0 inch across MS. This weak line of showers will move out of the CWA by early Sunday afternoon. Some guidance is in disagreement about timing, however weak forcing and a lack of deep layer moisture should inhibit development in the afternoon hours. By Monday, the shallow, moist airmass will quickly be replaced by drier continental airmass as northerly flow is directed into the region. A high pressure building from the west will enable dry conditions throughout the work week. A warming trend will also be present throughout the week. Highs on Sunday will range in the lower to mid-50s, while Sat-Tues, highs will be in the 60s. By Wednesday into the remainder of the week, highs will top off in the 70s. /AJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 39 52 40 52 / 3 15 62 50 Meridian 39 57 43 53 / 2 7 46 66 Vicksburg 37 47 38 53 / 6 32 76 34 Hattiesburg 43 63 47 56 / 1 4 27 54 Natchez 38 53 39 52 / 4 15 61 37 Greenville 33 42 36 50 / 13 53 85 18 Greenwood 36 44 39 50 / 9 35 88 34 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 ...AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT... .UPDATE... The weak, dry cold front is located over the northwest zones this evening noted by a fine line in the radar imagery from KVAX radar. The frontal zone will have some scattered clouds associated with it but no precip expected as it shifts south-southeast overnight into Saturday morning. A west-southwest low level flow off the GOMEX will set the stage for some patches to areas of fog/low stratus tonight mainly affecting the I-75 corridor, but this area of fog will slowly seep southeastward ahead of the frontal zone. Current forecast on track with just some increase the fog potential based on the HRRR and HREF guidance, and have shown areas of dense fog from southern Columbia and Suwannee Counties southward to western Marion county. The fog may be transient in some locations given the veering of the low level flow from the southwest-west then northwest by early morning. Lows tonight generally 55-60 deg under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. .MARINE... Current marine forecast on track with little change for this update. Seas generally in the 2-4 foot range tonight with periods around 10-11 seconds. Winds near 5-10 kt will shift from south to north overnight as a weak cold front moves through the area, then strengthening to near 15 kt Saturday over parts of the marine zones as the front moves south of the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION [655 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]... Ridging aloft centered over south FL will continue to gradually flatten as troughing digs southeastward from the Plains states and the Desert Southwest across Texas and towards the lower Mississippi Valley. This change in the previously stagnant weather pattern will drive a weakening cold front through southeast GA this evening, with this boundary passing south of the I-10 corridor by the predawn hours as it decelerates. A narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture along the cold front this afternoon will shift quickly eastward off the Carolina coast this evening, resulting in a dry frontal passage, with low stratus cloudiness and possibly some patches of locally dense fog advecting east- southeastward off Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf of Mexico across southern portions of the Suwannee Valley as well as north central FL overnight. Cool air advection will lag this frontal passage, and lows tonight will likely only fall to the mid and upper 50s, except around 60 at the northeast FL coast. Ridging aloft will continue to flatten, but the frontal boundary will continue to decelerate on Saturday morning along the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL as a zonal flow pattern takes shape over our area. Meanwhile, arctic high pressure will weaken over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, but this feature will briefly wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Saturday morning, resulting in a tightening local pressure gradient and creating breezy north-northeasterly winds at coastal locations on Saturday afternoon. These winds over the still relatively cool Atlantic shelf waters will keep highs at coastal locations mostly in the 70-75 degree range. A dry air mass, plenty of sunshine and zonal flow aloft will keep warm temperatures in place throughout north central FL, where highs will again reach the mid 80s. Very weak cool air advection will keep highs elsewhere in the mid to upper 70s. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Monday Night]... Troughing will gradually dig into the southeastern states, pushing a stronger cold front southward late this weekend. Warm air advection will develop ahead of this next frontal boundary beginning on Saturday night, possibly resulting in low stratus cloud cover and even fog development towards sunrise as our local pressure gradient loosens and the stalled boundary over central FL dissolves. Decoupling winds may allow for slightly cooler low temperatures on Sunday morning, but values will still remain in the 50s area-wide, which is about 5-10 degrees above late February climatology. Southwesterly low level flow will strengthen ahead of the next cold front on Sunday afternoon, boosting highs back to the low to mid 80s at inland locations, except 75-80 along the coast and for locations near upper portions of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee/Alapaha Rivers, where isolated showers may develop towards sunset as cloud cover gradually increases during the afternoon hours. Forecast confidence decreases by Sunday night and Monday as the cold front crosses our area and low pressure then potentially develops along the boundary near Cape Canaveral. Operational runs of the ECMWF continue to depict a more potent shortwave digging southeastward towards our region on Sunday night and Monday than compared with recent GFS runs, and thus the ECMWF solution promotes the development of beneficial rainfall across much of our area by Monday. Model blends are splitting the difference between these two solutions, depicting scattered showers along and behind the front from Interstate 10 northward on Sunday night, with scattered shower chances area-wide on Monday. Cold air advection in the wake of the frontal passage will drop lows back to the upper 40s across inland portions of southeast GA on Sunday night, while 50s remain in place elsewhere to the south of the advancing front. Highs on Monday should remain in the 60s as breezy north- northeasterly winds develop at coastal locations, except north central FL, where maxes around 70 may occur late in the morning before the front pushes through. Low pressure may linger off the FL Atlantic coast on Monday night, with breezy north-northeasterly winds continuing at coastal locations, where isolated to widely scattered showers may continue. A drier air mass will filter into inland portions of southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley overnight, and clearing skies will allow lows to fall back to around climatology at these locations, with low to mid 40s forecast. Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal lows in the low to mid 50s. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through next Friday]... The shortwave trough will progress offshore early on Tuesday, leaving a dry northwesterly flow pattern in place locally through Thursday as broad longwave troughing remains positioned over the eastern half of the nation, while ridging briefly builds over the Desert Southwest and progresses eastward across Texas by midweek. Breezy onshore winds will likely persist at coastal locations on Tuesday as surface ridging builds along the northern Gulf coast and low pressure accelerates away from our region. A few coastal showers will remain possible early in the day, and highs at coastal locations will likely remain in the 60s. Highs elsewhere will climb back into the lower 70s, except mid 70s in north central FL. Temperatures will continue to moderate on Wednesday and Thursday as ridging aloft begins to take shape just west of our region, while persistent onshore winds keep coastal highs closer to 70. The next trough progressing across the Rockies and the Desert Southwest late next week will result in rising heights aloft, and strengthening high pressure east of the Carolina coast will produce a deepening onshore wind flow. Inland highs will approach 80 towards the end of next week, while breezy onshore winds keep coastal highs in the 70s. Inland lows in the low to mid 40s around midweek will moderate towards 50 by week`s end, with 50s continuing along the coast. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] VFR conditions expected for most sites tonight even though a weak, dry cold front moves in from the northwest-north. However, Some fog and stratus is expected around GNV as it moves in from the Gulf of Mexico with a chance of IFR indicated for now after about 07Z, with much lesser chances for fog or stratus at VQQ, SGJ, and CRG but some MVFR vsby is still possible at these terminals. Any fog and stratus expected to dissipate Saturday by 14Z. Scattered cumulus is expected to develop Saturday with low chances for an MVFR ceiling in the aftn and early evening. For now, ceilings around 4-5 kft were included for the late afternoon for the coastal TAF sites. Light west- northwest sfc winds expected inland this evening for GNV, VQQ, and JAX and sea breeze winds from southeast to south at rest of the sites. After frontal passage early Saturday, winds will be north then becoming northeast up to near 8-12 kt after about 15Z. .MARINE... A weakening cold front will push across our local waters overnight, with southerly winds this evening shifting to northwesterly before sunrise on Saturday. Northerly winds will briefly increase in the wake of this cold frontal passage on Saturday. The front will stall across central FL on Saturday night, and onshore winds will weaken on Saturday evening and will shift to southerly by Sunday morning. Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through the weekend. A stronger cold front will then approach our local waters late on Sunday night and Monday, and weak low pressure may develop near Cape Canaveral, which will result in increasing shower chances early in the week. Northerly winds will increase in the wake of this frontal passage and will shift to northeasterly by Monday evening. Winds and seas may reach Caution levels of 15-20 knots offshore on Monday and Monday night, and seas will briefly build to 4-6 feet. Seas near shore should remain in the 3-5 foot range through midweek. Onshore winds will then gradually decrease towards midweek as high pressure builds along the northern Gulf coast, allowing winds and seas to fall below Caution levels offshore. Rip Currents: A persistent easterly ocean swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place at area beaches through Sunday. Strengthening onshore winds will keep a moderate risk in place early next week. .FIRE WEATHER... Surface and transport winds will shift to northwesterly overnight across southeast GA, with light winds forecast for northeast and north central FL. Surface and transport winds will shift to northerly and then northeasterly after sunrise on Saturday, with low speeds over inland southeast GA resulting in low daytime dispersion values. Northeasterly surface winds will become breezy at coastal locations during the mid to late morning hours on Saturday. Northeasterly surface and transport winds will diminish on Saturday night and will then shift to easterly and then southeasterly after sunrise on Sunday. Surface and transport winds will then shift to southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, with speeds gradually increasing and creating good dispersion values across much of our area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 76 52 78 48 / 0 10 0 10 50 SSI 59 70 57 75 52 / 0 10 0 10 50 JAX 58 76 58 82 53 / 0 10 0 0 30 SGJ 59 73 59 79 54 / 0 10 0 0 20 GNV 57 84 57 83 53 / 0 10 0 0 10 OCF 58 85 58 83 56 / 0 10 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022/ DISCUSSION... A gloomy and chilly day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are once again below guidance and have actually cooled throughout the afternoon. Temperatures range upper 20s over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to near freezing along the I-40 corridor. Above freezing temperatures can be found across all of north Mississippi. Wind chills have been particularly chilly in the teens and lower 20s today. Latest GOES satellite visible image shows some slight thinning of the clouds over north Mississippi, with overcast skies across the rest of the area. Cloud cover will continue and keep temperatures from falling too much overnight. Expect lows near freezing over north Mississippi with mid to upper 20s north. Two shortwaves will phase over the Central Plains tomorrow. This wave will take a southeast track through the Lower Mississippi Valley and place the Mid-South in the right exit region of a 130 knot jet. There is some uncertainty as to how far south this wave will dive tomorrow. The latest HRRR shows all precipitation staying along and south of I-40 tomorrow, with a couple of global models showing precipitation blooming north of I-40. The more north track scenario would result in a wintry mix for several hours tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures will once again play a critical role on if any accumulations do occur. They will hover in the Uncertainty remains higher than expected just 24 hours out, but feel that the wintry weather threat is decreasing. Rain will continue through Sunday afternoon, mainly south of I-40. QPF totals may approach an inch. This should have little impact on flooding concerns, as many rivers have already crested today. Beyond Sunday, the forecast and mood improves considerably. Surface high pressure will remain in full control and temperatures will warm into the 70s by late week with no rain. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Relative steady-state expected for the overnight aviation weather, with well-mixed Arctic airmass, centered over the mid-MS River valley. Main challenge is MVFR CIGs, which will fluctuate near the FL020 amendment criteria for alternate fuel. JBR will will first to lose the MVFR CIGs, but short term guidance from the LAMP and NBM may be a bit too optimistic on timing overnight. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
903 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022 PoPs and sky coverage values were brought down for early this morning until 5 am due to the weak upper level shortwave amplification deteriorating more rapidly that originally anticipated. -Stewey && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022 ...Banded snow with light accumulations for the Pikes Peak region and central mountains tonight... Elongated east west oriented upper trough will continue to settle southward across CO spreading banded snow into the central mountains and southeast plains. Moisture is rather limited with this with dew points still in the single digits to around 10 degrees across the Pikes Peak region. Snow bands have been developing out west along the Continental Divide and these should spread eastward into the late afternoon and evening as the upper trough shifts southeastward bringing a period of QG lift to the region. Best window for some light accumulations will be on the 00z to 06z time frame with most models suggesting only some light accumulations with the very dry HRRR holding its ground each run as the dry outlier. Even NBM mean and 75th percentile is fairly dry, thus leaning the forecast towards a spotty trace to around an inch of accumulation in spite of some of the deterministic models suggesting up to 2 inches. Did increase pops across the central mountains and Pikes Peak region though think impacts will be limited from this moisture starved system. Otherwise, remainder of the forecast area will remain dry tonight with clearing towards morning allowing for another cold night across the interior and western valleys. Dropped low temperatures considerably over model blends, especially in the Creede area where overnight lows last night were down around -10. Saturday will be sunny and dry with rebounding temperatures and relatively light winds. Some breezy northwest winds will mix down across the higher elevations in the afternoon with gusts to around 25 mph. -KT .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 301 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022 Saturday night through Wednesday...An upper ridge of high pressure will generally be in place across the southwestern US through midweek, though a quick upper disturbance will cross the northern plains of the US on Monday. This disturbance still looks like it will be too far north to have any big effect on the forecast area save for a slight bump in westerly surface winds. Therefore, plan on continued dry and steadily warming conditions through much of the extended period, with about 15 degrees of warming from Sunday through Wednesday. Look for highs in the 50s across the high valleys by Wednesday, and the 60s to around 70F across the plains. Thursday and Friday...Long range models still point to another low pressure system approaching the region towards the end of the next work week. The flow aloft begins to increase and shift to a more west to southwest direction across the Four Corners on Thursday, and even though precipitation is expected to move back into western CO Thu afternoon and evening, Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast for the forecast area. High temps are forecast to climb into the 50s to near 60F for the high valleys, and into the mid 60s to mid 70s across the plains. As the system tracks across the Rockies, precip starts to move across the mts to the adjacent plains Friday morning and afternoon, while a cold front pushes south, and maximum temps on Friday are expected to drop about 10 to 15 degrees as compared to the previous day. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 301 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022 VFR conditions will persist this evening and overnight for both KPUB and KALS. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 kts will gradually decrease towards 02z with light winds overnight. KCOS may see some MVFR conditions with -SN between 02-04z with banded snow spreading off the mountains but accumulations should remain light with a dusting to up to 1/2 inch on the highest end of the spectrum. Skies will clear overnight with VFR at all three terminals for Saturday with light winds. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...STEWARD SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...KT