Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/26/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
.AVIATION... (26/00Z TAFs)
At the I-35 sites, MVFR CIGs, except brief low end VFR at KAUS early
this evening, lower to IFR by Saturday morning as periods of -RADZ
impact the sites. There is a potential of even lower CIGs/VSBYs on
Saturday, however, chances too to mention, for now. Northerly winds
of 7 to 14 KTs prevail with a few gusts to 22 KTs.
At KDRT, low end VFR CIGs gradually lower to MVFR overnight. East to
southeasterly winds 6 to 10 KTs prevail.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
This afternoon, RAP analysis indicates a 1040mb sfc high over the
central Plains that is forecast to weaken somewhat as it slowly
shifts eastward. Locally, flow is SW aloft but more out of the SSW
to S at 850mb over a low level inversion. Cold N to NNE sfc winds
will continue through the short term for our central and eastern
areas. Isolated drizzle has been observed through the day, but
increasingly moist isentropic upglide tonight over the shallow cold
airmass will lead to a gradual increase in coverage of drizzle and
eventually isolated to scattered light rain showers from SE to NW.
Temperatures are at or above freezing across the region this
afternoon, however we do anticipate that temperatures in much of the
Hill Country may fall into the 30-32 degree range after 1am
Saturday. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain as a result, mainly on elevated roadways in the region
north of Rocksprings to Boerne to Burnet, with the heavily-populated
I-35 corridor safely outside the risk area. However, sfc dew points
will take a bit of time to moisten up in the Hill Country, and QPF
in the region is anticipated to be less than 0.02". Confidence in
any ice accretion is low at this time, but cannot be ruled out in
the 3am-9am time frame. Given this, for now we`ll have an SPS in
place for the potential for isolated slick spots on roadways in the
AM, but we will monitor through the evening and overnight as a
Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if chances for impacts
increase. We`d like to advise against taking hi-res model ice
accumulation maps at face value, as they`ve consistently been
overblown this week and during most of our winter events this season.
Temperatures should rise back above freezing areawide by mid to late
morning, on our way to highs near 40 northeast and in the low to
potentially mid 50s along the Rio Grande. Scattered shower activity
will continue mainly east of US-281, although a brief sprinkle can`t
be ruled out as far west as Uvalde. PWATS along and east of I-35
will exceed 1" for a time on Saturday afternoon. However, with dry
SW flow aloft, saturation will never exceed 7-8 kft so most of the
activity should remain light. Drier air will trickle in from NNW to
SSE through Saturday night and so showers will be mainly relegated
to the Coastal Plains after midnight. In all, most areas will see
less than 0.10" of precip with a few locations perhaps picking up
close to 0.25" east of I-35 and north of I-10.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Finally some relief in the cold weather is in sight! Clearing is
expected to take place from north to south Sunday morning, with
sunshine in the afternoon and high temperatures climbing into the
upper 50s east to mid 60s west. The clear skies and light winds
will allow for favorable radiational cooling Sunday night. But after
a cold start Monday morning temperatures are forecast to rebound
into the 60s across the entire area in the afternoon. A continued
warming trend is expected through the week.
There remains disagreement in the models with the handling of an
upper level system across the Desert Southwest Tuesday and its
evolution eastward and potential for rain chances across South
Central Texas Wednesday into Thursday. We have followed closer to the
NBM PoPs and for now will keep mention of showers out of the
forecast until better clarity in the guidance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 34 43 36 57 33 / 30 60 40 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 34 43 35 57 30 / 30 60 50 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 33 44 36 60 32 / 30 60 50 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 32 40 32 57 30 / 20 60 20 - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 39 54 42 67 38 / 0 10 - - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 33 42 34 57 30 / 30 60 40 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 34 48 37 64 31 / 20 30 30 10 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 33 43 35 59 30 / 30 60 50 10 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 37 45 38 57 32 / 40 70 60 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 34 44 38 60 35 / 30 50 40 10 0
Stinson Muni Airport 37 47 40 63 35 / 30 50 40 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Oaks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
901 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The final band of snow continues to drop south across the area
and will allow for up to an additional couple of inches
accumulation before it is all said and done. Dry and seasonable
weather is expected for the weekend before a strong cold front
crashes through the region Sunday evening. Snow showers, some
heavy, and gusty winds will accompany it. Temperatures will fall
into the single digits below zero in the mountains and single
digits above zero south. Monday will only teens temperatures
topping out in the teens and 20s. Below normal temperatures are
expected to remain in place through the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 PM Update... With snow coming to an end... and visibilities
fast improving... have taken down the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory for this event. Temperatures continue
to dive especially toward the north so have done another spruce
up of overnight temperatures to account for this. Satellite
shows the back edge of the upper level cloud deck is approaching
the international border, so am expecting stars to make an
appearance on this chilly night... fresh snow will likely allow
temperatures to dive even more where the clouds clear out.
555 PM Update...
Quick update for the next aviation forecast, focusing on winds
trending down through the overnight period. Also touched up
temperatures... low pressure rapidly deepening south of Nova
Scotia has pulled around a cold ageostrophic wind from the north
with temperatures tumbling into the single digits this evening.
The PoP forecast is well on track. The broad shield of
stratiform snow accompanying the upper level trough is
decreasing in intensity according to reflectivity (and a check
out the window). Won`t pull down the headlines quite yet... as
some areas of poor visibility in snow are still being observed
over the populated corridor.
Previously...
Surface low south of Nantucket will pull east through this
evening as short wave crosses northern New England. This short
wave will allow for a surface trough to extend northwestward
from the low to keep snowfall going across much of the area for
the rest of the afternoon with snowfall ending between 5 and 7
PM. Latest radar has shown persistent snowband over northern New
Hampshire into the western Maine mountains with surface obs
reporting moderate to heavy snow under this band. Latest RAP
analysis shows this band is associated with a deepening DGZ with
large dendrites observed on area webcams contributing to
visibility reduced to 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times. This band is
expected to pivot and slide southeastward over the next couple
of hours with continued difficult travel expected into the
evening commute with the potential for snowfall rates greater
than 1 inch per hour.
Additional snowfall is expected to range from 1-3 inches with
locally higher amounts in areas with greater residence time
under the pivoting heavy snow band. Will continue to hold onto
the Winter Storm Warnings and Advisory with this package due to
continued impacts expected into this evening.
Low pressure continues to track east into the western Atlantic
tonight with drier air working into the region on north winds. Skies
will turn mostly clear towards Saturday morning with lows dropping
into the single digits below zero across the north and single digits
above zero across the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will nose in from the west Saturday for fair
weather with highs ranging from the upper teens north to upper
20s across the south. High pressure will then sink southward
Saturday night as a cold front starts to approach from the NW
towards Sunday morning. This approaching cold front will bring
increasing clouds across the north with winds shifting out of
the southwest. Lows Saturday night will generally be in the
teens area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Largely at of
below normal temps expected thru the extended. A couple strong
shots of colder air will also ensure a more continental air mass
origin and drier than normal conditions.
Impacts: Main concern will be shot of very cold air Sun night
into Mon. Given the magnitude of cold and gusty winds that
accompany it some apparent temps near 20 below are possible in
the mtns. Also some areas of moderate freezing spray are
possible on the coastal waters. Will finally have to keep an eye
on snow squalls Sun evening that may affect end of vacation week
travelers.
Forecast Details: The most impactful weather looks to be at the
beginning of the extended. A strong but brief shot of bitterly
cold air will drop out of the Arctic and cross the region Sun
into Mon. While Sun may be seasonably mild...Sun night things go
downhill. Strong CAA will drop temps into the low teens at the
coast and below zero in the mtns. Gusty winds will lead to some
wind chills approaching 20 below. A wind chill advisory may be
necessary for some zones Sun night. Temps Mon do little in the
way of significant warming. Despite stronger late Feb sun...we
will still struggle into the 20s south of the mtns...teens
north. Given the strength of the cold front some snow squalls
are also possible. While there are not many hi-res models that
have a window into the frontal passage yet...the 3 km NAM does
show convective elements along the front. With the main
shortwave pushing thru western Maine...this would also be the
focus for squalls.
Things beyond Sun/Mon look quite tame in comparison. Another
shortwave is expected to cross the area Wed/Thu and may bring
some light snow to the area...but again large amounts of QPF are
not anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot is expected behind
that...but not quite as cold as Sun/Mon.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Snow and low cigs will bring continued IFR/LIFR
conditions until 00Z this evening. Conditions will gradually improve
after 00Z with VFR expected by early Saturday morning. VFR is
expected Saturday into Saturday night as high pressure builds into
New England.
Long Term...Isolated IFR or lower conditions possible south of
the mtns...with areas of IFR or lower conditions north as a cold
front crosses the region Sun. SHSN will be most persistent north
of the mtns...but cannot rule out some making it to the coast
especially with the boundary itself. Surface gusts near 25 kt
possible into Mon with CAA. VFR conditions expected thru
midweek.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure south of Nantucket will trek east into the
western Atlantic with northeast winds turning northerly in its wake
and SCA conditions expected into Saturday morning. High pressure
builds in from the west Saturday with winds and seas dropping below
SCA conditions. A cold front approaches northern New England late
Saturday night with increasing SW flow ahead of the front.
Long Term...Strong cold front crossing the waters Sun may bring
a round of gale force gusts outside of the bays into Mon. Much
colder air will also bring a risk of moderate freezing
spray...especially north of Cape Elizabeth. Winds and seas
gradually diminish into mid week before another round of SCA
conditions is possible late in the week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
604 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR ceilings are mostly prevailing this evening, however a return
to MVFR is expected overnight in the north. A mix of MVFR and VFR
is possible elsewhere. Most all sites should return to VFR for
tomorrow, with the Delta lingering longer into the day with MVFR.
Some light rain will be possible at KGLH/KGWO overnight into early
tomorrow but other sites may remain dry. /28/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight & Saturday...
Tonight: As strong sfc high builds SE out of the Plains through the
Ozarks, digging shortwave trough & strengthening upper jet dynamics
will aid in favorable synoptic pattern. Moist, low-level
isentropic ascent will keep moisture around +1 inch PWs streaming
in, keeping widespread cloudiness through the period. Some
increase in rain chances across the Delta, particularly in extreme
SE Arkansas, might support a very brief period of some brief
freezing drizzle around or just after daybreak. HRRR indicates
this potential & very low probs from WPC in the far NW Delta.
However, such shallow moisture depth & only being right around
freezing limits confidence of development &/or impacts. For now,
will hold off any mention. With cold air & strong high pressure
building in, lows will fall into the low 40s SE to mid-upper 30s
elsewhere.
Saturday: As sfc high builds into the TN Valley, moist ascent
will persist, helping moisten the column more into the aftn hours.
This will help PWs climb to around 1.2 inches by mid-aftn. This
will support more scattered rain shower coverage for areas NW of
the Natchez Trace. With NE CAA & cloudy skies, another raw day
will be in store. Highs will only fall into the low 40s along & NW
of the Natchez Trace to low 60s in the SE. Leaned towards raw
guid for highs. /DC/
Saturday night through Friday...
Saturday night into Sunday, after a brief period of mostly dry
conditions over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave will initiate
southerly flow into the region. This will allow for a restoration of
surface moisture Saturday night, when precipitation chances will
increase from the northwest as reach PWATs ~1.0 inch across MS. This
weak line of showers will move out of the CWA by early Sunday
afternoon. Some guidance is in disagreement about timing, however
weak forcing and a lack of deep layer moisture should inhibit
development in the afternoon hours.
By Monday, the shallow, moist airmass will quickly be replaced by
drier continental airmass as northerly flow is directed into the
region. A high pressure building from the west will enable dry
conditions throughout the work week. A warming trend will also be
present throughout the week. Highs on Sunday will range in the
lower to mid-50s, while Sat-Tues, highs will be in the 60s. By
Wednesday into the remainder of the week, highs will top off in
the 70s. /AJ/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 39 52 40 52 / 3 15 62 50
Meridian 39 57 43 53 / 2 7 46 66
Vicksburg 37 47 38 53 / 6 32 76 34
Hattiesburg 43 63 47 56 / 1 4 27 54
Natchez 38 53 39 52 / 4 15 61 37
Greenville 33 42 36 50 / 13 53 85 18
Greenwood 36 44 39 50 / 9 35 88 34
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022
...AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
LATE TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...
The weak, dry cold front is located over the northwest zones this
evening noted by a fine line in the radar imagery from KVAX radar.
The frontal zone will have some scattered clouds associated with
it but no precip expected as it shifts south-southeast overnight
into Saturday morning. A west-southwest low level flow off the
GOMEX will set the stage for some patches to areas of fog/low
stratus tonight mainly affecting the I-75 corridor, but this area
of fog will slowly seep southeastward ahead of the frontal zone.
Current forecast on track with just some increase the fog
potential based on the HRRR and HREF guidance, and have shown
areas of dense fog from southern Columbia and Suwannee Counties
southward to western Marion county. The fog may be transient in
some locations given the veering of the low level flow from the
southwest-west then northwest by early morning. Lows tonight
generally 55-60 deg under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
.MARINE...
Current marine forecast on track with little change for this update.
Seas generally in the 2-4 foot range tonight with periods around
10-11 seconds. Winds near 5-10 kt will shift from south to north
overnight as a weak cold front moves through the area, then
strengthening to near 15 kt Saturday over parts of the marine
zones as the front moves south of the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [655 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...
Ridging aloft centered over south FL will continue to gradually
flatten as troughing digs southeastward from the Plains states and
the Desert Southwest across Texas and towards the lower
Mississippi Valley. This change in the previously stagnant weather
pattern will drive a weakening cold front through southeast GA
this evening, with this boundary passing south of the I-10
corridor by the predawn hours as it decelerates. A narrow ribbon
of enhanced moisture along the cold front this afternoon will
shift quickly eastward off the Carolina coast this evening,
resulting in a dry frontal passage, with low stratus cloudiness
and possibly some patches of locally dense fog advecting east-
southeastward off Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf of Mexico
across southern portions of the Suwannee Valley as well as north
central FL overnight. Cool air advection will lag this frontal
passage, and lows tonight will likely only fall to the mid and
upper 50s, except around 60 at the northeast FL coast.
Ridging aloft will continue to flatten, but the frontal boundary
will continue to decelerate on Saturday morning along the
Interstate 4 corridor in central FL as a zonal flow pattern takes
shape over our area. Meanwhile, arctic high pressure will weaken
over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, but this feature will briefly
wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Saturday morning,
resulting in a tightening local pressure gradient and creating
breezy north-northeasterly winds at coastal locations on Saturday
afternoon. These winds over the still relatively cool Atlantic
shelf waters will keep highs at coastal locations mostly in the
70-75 degree range. A dry air mass, plenty of sunshine and zonal
flow aloft will keep warm temperatures in place throughout north
central FL, where highs will again reach the mid 80s. Very weak
cool air advection will keep highs elsewhere in the mid to upper
70s.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Monday Night]...
Troughing will gradually dig into the southeastern states, pushing
a stronger cold front southward late this weekend. Warm air
advection will develop ahead of this next frontal boundary
beginning on Saturday night, possibly resulting in low stratus
cloud cover and even fog development towards sunrise as our local
pressure gradient loosens and the stalled boundary over central FL
dissolves. Decoupling winds may allow for slightly cooler low
temperatures on Sunday morning, but values will still remain in
the 50s area-wide, which is about 5-10 degrees above late February
climatology.
Southwesterly low level flow will strengthen ahead of the next
cold front on Sunday afternoon, boosting highs back to the low to
mid 80s at inland locations, except 75-80 along the coast and for
locations near upper portions of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee/Alapaha
Rivers, where isolated showers may develop towards sunset as cloud
cover gradually increases during the afternoon hours.
Forecast confidence decreases by Sunday night and Monday as the
cold front crosses our area and low pressure then potentially
develops along the boundary near Cape Canaveral. Operational runs
of the ECMWF continue to depict a more potent shortwave digging
southeastward towards our region on Sunday night and Monday than
compared with recent GFS runs, and thus the ECMWF solution
promotes the development of beneficial rainfall across much of our
area by Monday. Model blends are splitting the difference between
these two solutions, depicting scattered showers along and behind
the front from Interstate 10 northward on Sunday night, with
scattered shower chances area-wide on Monday. Cold air advection
in the wake of the frontal passage will drop lows back to the
upper 40s across inland portions of southeast GA on Sunday night,
while 50s remain in place elsewhere to the south of the advancing
front. Highs on Monday should remain in the 60s as breezy north-
northeasterly winds develop at coastal locations, except north
central FL, where maxes around 70 may occur late in the morning
before the front pushes through.
Low pressure may linger off the FL Atlantic coast on Monday night,
with breezy north-northeasterly winds continuing at coastal
locations, where isolated to widely scattered showers may
continue. A drier air mass will filter into inland portions of
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley overnight, and clearing skies
will allow lows to fall back to around climatology at these
locations, with low to mid 40s forecast. Breezy onshore winds will
keep coastal lows in the low to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through next Friday]...
The shortwave trough will progress offshore early on Tuesday,
leaving a dry northwesterly flow pattern in place locally through
Thursday as broad longwave troughing remains positioned over the
eastern half of the nation, while ridging briefly builds over
the Desert Southwest and progresses eastward across Texas by
midweek. Breezy onshore winds will likely persist at coastal
locations on Tuesday as surface ridging builds along the northern
Gulf coast and low pressure accelerates away from our region. A
few coastal showers will remain possible early in the day, and
highs at coastal locations will likely remain in the 60s. Highs
elsewhere will climb back into the lower 70s, except mid 70s in
north central FL.
Temperatures will continue to moderate on Wednesday and Thursday
as ridging aloft begins to take shape just west of our region,
while persistent onshore winds keep coastal highs closer to 70.
The next trough progressing across the Rockies and the Desert
Southwest late next week will result in rising heights aloft, and
strengthening high pressure east of the Carolina coast will
produce a deepening onshore wind flow. Inland highs will approach
80 towards the end of next week, while breezy onshore winds keep
coastal highs in the 70s. Inland lows in the low to mid 40s around
midweek will moderate towards 50 by week`s end, with 50s
continuing along the coast.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]
VFR conditions expected for most sites tonight even though a
weak, dry cold front moves in from the northwest-north. However,
Some fog and stratus is expected around GNV as it moves in from
the Gulf of Mexico with a chance of IFR indicated for now after
about 07Z, with much lesser chances for fog or stratus at VQQ,
SGJ, and CRG but some MVFR vsby is still possible at these
terminals. Any fog and stratus expected to dissipate Saturday by
14Z. Scattered cumulus is expected to develop Saturday with low
chances for an MVFR ceiling in the aftn and early evening. For
now, ceilings around 4-5 kft were included for the late afternoon
for the coastal TAF sites. Light west- northwest sfc winds
expected inland this evening for GNV, VQQ, and JAX and sea breeze
winds from southeast to south at rest of the sites. After frontal
passage early Saturday, winds will be north then becoming northeast
up to near 8-12 kt after about 15Z.
.MARINE...
A weakening cold front will push across our local waters overnight,
with southerly winds this evening shifting to northwesterly
before sunrise on Saturday. Northerly winds will briefly increase
in the wake of this cold frontal passage on Saturday. The front
will stall across central FL on Saturday night, and onshore winds
will weaken on Saturday evening and will shift to southerly by
Sunday morning. Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail both near shore and
offshore through the weekend.
A stronger cold front will then approach our local waters late on
Sunday night and Monday, and weak low pressure may develop near
Cape Canaveral, which will result in increasing shower chances
early in the week. Northerly winds will increase in the wake of
this frontal passage and will shift to northeasterly by Monday
evening. Winds and seas may reach Caution levels of 15-20 knots
offshore on Monday and Monday night, and seas will briefly build
to 4-6 feet. Seas near shore should remain in the 3-5 foot range
through midweek. Onshore winds will then gradually decrease
towards midweek as high pressure builds along the northern Gulf
coast, allowing winds and seas to fall below Caution levels
offshore.
Rip Currents: A persistent easterly ocean swell will keep a
moderate rip current risk in place at area beaches through
Sunday. Strengthening onshore winds will keep a moderate risk in
place early next week.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Surface and transport winds will shift to northwesterly overnight
across southeast GA, with light winds forecast for northeast and
north central FL. Surface and transport winds will shift to
northerly and then northeasterly after sunrise on Saturday, with
low speeds over inland southeast GA resulting in low daytime
dispersion values. Northeasterly surface winds will become breezy
at coastal locations during the mid to late morning hours on
Saturday. Northeasterly surface and transport winds will diminish
on Saturday night and will then shift to easterly and then
southeasterly after sunrise on Sunday. Surface and transport winds
will then shift to southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, with speeds
gradually increasing and creating good dispersion values across
much of our area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 55 76 52 78 48 / 0 10 0 10 50
SSI 59 70 57 75 52 / 0 10 0 10 50
JAX 58 76 58 82 53 / 0 10 0 0 30
SGJ 59 73 59 79 54 / 0 10 0 0 20
GNV 57 84 57 83 53 / 0 10 0 0 10
OCF 58 85 58 83 56 / 0 10 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Fri Feb 25 2022/
DISCUSSION...
A gloomy and chilly day across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are once again below guidance and have actually
cooled throughout the afternoon. Temperatures range upper 20s over
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to near freezing
along the I-40 corridor. Above freezing temperatures can be found
across all of north Mississippi. Wind chills have been
particularly chilly in the teens and lower 20s today.
Latest GOES satellite visible image shows some slight thinning of
the clouds over north Mississippi, with overcast skies across the
rest of the area. Cloud cover will continue and keep temperatures
from falling too much overnight. Expect lows near freezing over
north Mississippi with mid to upper 20s north.
Two shortwaves will phase over the Central Plains tomorrow. This
wave will take a southeast track through the Lower Mississippi
Valley and place the Mid-South in the right exit region of a 130
knot jet. There is some uncertainty as to how far south this wave
will dive tomorrow. The latest HRRR shows all precipitation
staying along and south of I-40 tomorrow, with a couple of global
models showing precipitation blooming north of I-40. The more
north track scenario would result in a wintry mix for several
hours tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures will once again
play a critical role on if any accumulations do occur. They will
hover in the Uncertainty remains higher than expected just 24
hours out, but feel that the wintry weather threat is decreasing.
Rain will continue through Sunday afternoon, mainly south of
I-40. QPF totals may approach an inch. This should have little
impact on flooding concerns, as many rivers have already crested
today.
Beyond Sunday, the forecast and mood improves considerably. Surface
high pressure will remain in full control and temperatures will
warm into the 70s by late week with no rain.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Relative steady-state expected for the overnight aviation
weather, with well-mixed Arctic airmass, centered over the
mid-MS River valley.
Main challenge is MVFR CIGs, which will fluctuate near the FL020
amendment criteria for alternate fuel. JBR will will first to lose
the MVFR CIGs, but short term guidance from the LAMP and NBM may
be a bit too optimistic on timing overnight.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
903 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022
PoPs and sky coverage values were brought down for early this
morning until 5 am due to the weak upper level shortwave
amplification deteriorating more rapidly that originally
anticipated. -Stewey
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022
...Banded snow with light accumulations for the Pikes Peak region
and central mountains tonight...
Elongated east west oriented upper trough will continue to settle
southward across CO spreading banded snow into the central mountains
and southeast plains. Moisture is rather limited with this with dew
points still in the single digits to around 10 degrees across the
Pikes Peak region. Snow bands have been developing out west along
the Continental Divide and these should spread eastward into the
late afternoon and evening as the upper trough shifts southeastward
bringing a period of QG lift to the region. Best window for some
light accumulations will be on the 00z to 06z time frame with most
models suggesting only some light accumulations with the very dry
HRRR holding its ground each run as the dry outlier. Even NBM mean
and 75th percentile is fairly dry, thus leaning the forecast towards
a spotty trace to around an inch of accumulation in spite of some of
the deterministic models suggesting up to 2 inches. Did increase
pops across the central mountains and Pikes Peak region though think
impacts will be limited from this moisture starved system.
Otherwise, remainder of the forecast area will remain dry tonight
with clearing towards morning allowing for another cold night across
the interior and western valleys. Dropped low temperatures
considerably over model blends, especially in the Creede area where
overnight lows last night were down around -10.
Saturday will be sunny and dry with rebounding temperatures and
relatively light winds. Some breezy northwest winds will mix down
across the higher elevations in the afternoon with gusts to around
25 mph. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022
Saturday night through Wednesday...An upper ridge of high pressure
will generally be in place across the southwestern US through
midweek, though a quick upper disturbance will cross the northern
plains of the US on Monday. This disturbance still looks like it
will be too far north to have any big effect on the forecast area
save for a slight bump in westerly surface winds. Therefore, plan on
continued dry and steadily warming conditions through much of the
extended period, with about 15 degrees of warming from Sunday
through Wednesday. Look for highs in the 50s across the high valleys
by Wednesday, and the 60s to around 70F across the plains.
Thursday and Friday...Long range models still point to another low
pressure system approaching the region towards the end of the next
work week. The flow aloft begins to increase and shift to a more
west to southwest direction across the Four Corners on Thursday, and
even though precipitation is expected to move back into western CO
Thu afternoon and evening, Thursday will be the warmest day of the
forecast for the forecast area. High temps are forecast to climb
into the 50s to near 60F for the high valleys, and into the mid 60s
to mid 70s across the plains. As the system tracks across the
Rockies, precip starts to move across the mts to the adjacent plains
Friday morning and afternoon, while a cold front pushes south, and
maximum temps on Friday are expected to drop about 10 to 15 degrees
as compared to the previous day. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 301 PM MST Fri Feb 25 2022
VFR conditions will persist this evening and overnight for both KPUB
and KALS. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 kts will gradually decrease
towards 02z with light winds overnight. KCOS may see some MVFR
conditions with -SN between 02-04z with banded snow spreading off
the mountains but accumulations should remain light with a dusting
to up to 1/2 inch on the highest end of the spectrum. Skies will
clear overnight with VFR at all three terminals for Saturday with
light winds. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWARD
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT