Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/16/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
933 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Light snow has been reported briefly at Jamestown and Linton, so PoPs were drawn downstream over the next couple hours to match observed trends. Not expecting more than a trace with this snow this evening. Temperatures dropped quickly this evening over the cloud-free north central, but stratus approaches from the west which should keep early morning lows warmer if it persists. No changes to the temperature forecast needed. UPDATE Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Band of light snow through central North Dakota continues to produce sporadic snow reports this evening. RAP guidance shows quickly weakening omega in the DGZ over the next several hours, which will cut off precipitation chances. Extended slight chance PoPs in the forecast with this update over the next couple hours but the remainder of the progression looks good. As previously discussed low temperatures will be a challenge tonight with the uncertainty in clearing stratus, so no changes will be made now but trends will be monitored. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Temperature concerns highlight the short term forecast. Ongoing scattered light snow from southeast Montana into central ND will continue to track northeast, but also sink southward as high pressure builds south from Canada. Not expecting much if any additional accumulations from the activity this afternoon and early evening. Expect considerable cloudiness this evening and into the early overnight hours most areas, but with clearing from north to south late tonight and into Wednesday morning as the high builds south. Current forecast lows tonight range from around zero north to the lower teens southwest, which is probably one of the lower ranges we`ve seen so far. NBM ensemble temperatures show a narrow envelope of solutions and more clouds than not. If we would clear out earlier, temperatures may drop lower than forecast, especially north. Wednesday we will be under the influence of the Canadian High pressure system so expect cold and dry conditions. Although not into Advisory criteria, wind chills will remain cold through the day with a brisk northerly wind. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Clipper systems early in the extended and then a split flow pattern late in the week and early next week with the potential for a wetter and colder pattern early next week. Early in the period, we may need Wind Chill highlights late Wednesday night into Thursday morning over eastern portions of the forecast area as the surface high settles over eastern North Dakota. We then quickly transition back to a southerly flow during the day Thursday ahead of another clipper system. Precipitation chances with this system will be light with northwest and north central seeing the best chances of maybe an inch of snow and mostly trace amounts to maybe a half inch southwest and south central. The Turtle Mountains area will be the most likely area to see more than an inch. At this time the heaviest snow amounts are expected to remain over northeast North Dakota and into Minnesota. It will be a windy day across the forecast area. Signals from the both the NAEFS SA table and the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index pinpoint north central into eastern ND for the strongest winds Friday. Thursday and Friday will bring warmer temperatures to the forecast area with 20s across the north and 30s to lower 40s south. Colder air will spill over northeast portions of the area Friday night, with lows dropping down to maybe around 10 below over the Turtle Mountains, with upper teens in the southwest. Temperatures will rebound quickly on Saturday with upper 40s and 50s expected south and west of the Missouri River. Beginning Saturday we see a split upper flow pattern taking shape with a northern stream clipper bringing us the warm temperatures during the day Saturday, but dragging down a chunk of Arctic air that settles over the Northern Plains Sunday through Tuesday. An eastern Pacific upper low drops down the U.S. West Coast Sunday and Monday, digging out a western upper level trough by Tuesday. It`s during this development or transition stage late Sunday through Monday when we see mid to upper level energy sliding through the Northern Rockies, combined with southwest upper flow aloft and Arctic air dropping south from Canada. At this point in time we`re way to far out for any specifics but it certainly looks like a period of unsettled weather in the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night through Tuesday. But with a split flow pattern like this, there is always the possibility that there will be too much of a separation between the northern and southern streams and North Dakota is left high and dry. The day 6 cluster analysis for the 24 hour period ending 00Z Tuesday shows there that a case can be made for both a wet solution and a dry solution over most of North Dakota, with reasonable participation in both solutions by all forecast model systems. ECMWF and GEFS ensembles are both showing some minor chances for 24 hour snowfall amounts greater than 3 inches over southwest and south central ND during the late Sunday through late Monday timeframe and the NBM ensembles are also waking up a bit with some small chances (20 to 30 percent) for 24 hour snowfall amounts greater than 6 inches during this timeframe. For now, we will message some potential (but a lot of uncertainty) for accumulating snows in the late Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 A weak cold front will cross the state this evening and produce mainly MVFR stratus for most areas, with some isolated IFR possible at times. Cloud cover should dissipate for the most part Wednesday morning, but MVFR cigs could linger at KJMS through much of the day. Northwest winds increase to 10-20 kts tonight in the central and east. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure has shifted to the Middle Atlantic Coast with some ridging reaching back over Ohio. A warm front lifts northward across the region tonight. A strong cold front approaches from the west Wednesday and is expected to move eastward across the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 9:30 PM Update... We have added Marion, Morrow, Knox, and Holmes Counties to the Flood Watch. Coordination with the Ohio River Forecast Center now places Killbuck Creek and the Scioto River above flood stage, and the overall potential for flooding has increased for these areas. Temperatures this evening have fallen into the mid 20s to around 30. Latest surface and RAP analysis places the warm front from central Indiana through southwest Ohio, and as this boundary lifts through in the roughly 06 to 10Z timeframe, temperatures will rise. Downsloping areas near the lakeshore will also start to see S to SE gusts of 20-25 knots after 09Z as the pressure gradient tightens and a 50-60 knot low-level jet develops, although the best mixing will hold off until after 15Z. Low temps and winds remain on track for tonight. 6:30 PM Update... Increased max wind gusts a bit for Wednesday late morning through mid afternoon as the latest HREF ensemble mean max gusts and RAP BUFKIT soundings support better mixing. The strong low- level jet is still on track to develop after 04Z tonight as a warm front lifts through the region with 50-60 knot speeds in the 925-850 mb layer. It will take time for mixing heights to deepen enough to tap into some of these winds, but latest soundings show mixing up to around 900 mb by late morning, so gusts will increase through the morning. Also added Knox, Medina, Summit, and Geauga to the advisory. The rest of the forecast remains on track. Original Discussion... Surface high pressure will continue to make eastward progress towards the northeast coast this evening into tonight. On the backside of the high, a warm front will lift north across the area late tonight, with east-southeast winds quickly becoming southerly with the frontal passage. A tightening pressure gradient will result in strengthening winds overnight allowing for strong warm air advection starting early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will easily rise into the low to mid 50s by Wednesday afternoon, aided by some warming from the sun poking through partly cloudy skies. A strong low-level jet is expected to traverse the area with winds up to 60 knots at the 925 mb level. While there is some uncertainty with regard to mixing depth (especially with a snowpack-cooled surface), think expected partly sunny skies and strong surface gradient/winds should be able to warm surface and low-levels enough to support mixing depths of at least 1 to 1.5kft. Mean wind gusts from ensemble guidance, such as NBM and HREF, also support gusts to 50 mph for the current advisory area. For this reason, a Wind Advisory has been issued for portions of northwest and north-central Ohio, as well as the lakeshore of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, starting early Wednesday morning and lasting through Wednesday evening. Winds diminish a bit after dark as clouds overspread and thicken across the area and we lose boundary layer mixing from daytime heating. However, temperature advection remains strong across the area, counteracting diurnal cooling overnight and preventing temperatures from dropping much. Overnight lows likely won`t be too much lower than Wednesday highs. Rain begins overspreading the area late Wednesday night from the west...more on that and the associated flooding potential below. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A Flood Watch has been issued Wednesday night through late Thursday night across northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania for the potential of flooding. The flood threat will come from a combination of extensive snow melt of the snowpack and forecast heavy rainfall. A slow moving cold front will slowly move southward from the Upper Great Lakes region into the central and eastern Great Lakes region on Thursday. Southwest flow aloft will bring in an abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere parallel to this cold front. Forecast model soundings and atmospheric profile show precip water values peak out near max levels for this time of year between 1" and 1.2" by Thursday afternoon. A strong low pressure will start to develop near the Ozarks Region of the central U.S. and track northeastward on Thursday. Widespread light to moderate rain will develop along and ahead of this slow moving through as it drifts into northwest Ohio. The area of low pressure will track along this boundary from southeast to northeast from roughly west central Ohio through northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Thursday evening. The latest forecast trends keep most of the local area on the warmer side of this system with moderate to heavy rainfall very possible. Temperatures will be in the 50s for most of the day on Thursday. General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected with the highest amounts likely closer to Northwest and north central Ohio. As the center of the low pressure system pulls away Thursday evening, a cold front will sweep through the area with falling temperatures. As the colder air catches up with the precip shield exiting the area, we will transition from rain to a light wintry mix to light snow before the system moves out Thursday night. The area to see some light accumulations of snowfall will be northwest Ohio with a couple inches possible by Thursday. Much colder air filters in the lower atmosphere with 850 mb temps falling to around -15C. We may see a little lake effect or lake enhancement snow on the backside of the exiting low pressure system from the primary and secondary Snowbelt late Thursday night into Friday morning. 1 to 2 inches of snowfall could be possible for the Snowbelt before the LES wraps up midday on Friday. High pressure briefly moves over the region by Friday evening with cold weather again. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and in the teens Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fast moving clipper system will track across the Upper Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday morning. There areas closest to the lakeshore of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania may get brushed with a little light snow from the clipper. The majority of the precip associated with this system will bypass the region to the north. It will be blustery with gusty winds from this clipper system passing by on Saturday. Another area of high pressure will quickly move over the region Saturday night with the last very cold night for a while. High temperatures on Saturday will stay in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens Saturday night. Southerly winds return on Sunday with a start of another warming trend and a warmer weather pattern that may stay around a little longer through early next week. Temperatures will steadily climb each day through Tuesday to above average levels. The next storm system to impact the region will be arriving next Tuesday in the form of rainfall and temperatures in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The main concern with TAFs is low-level wind shear tonight followed by significant surface gusts developing Wednesday morning and peaking during the afternoon. Confidence is high that this scenario will occur with low-level wind shear first developing in the 02 to 04Z timeframe and surface gusts generally starting between 07 and 10Z. However, confidence is medium on how strong the peak gusts will be Wednesday. Wind directions will generally be SE early tonight turning S late tonight and SSW Wednesday morning. Besides the winds, VFR will prevail through the period with gradually decreasing cigs toward the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR expected Wednesday night through Thursday with widespread rain. Rain transitions to a wintry mix and snow Thursday night followed by lake effect snow on Friday bringing periods of non-VFR. Non- VFR is possible with light snow for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Saturday. && .MARINE... Strong southerly winds will increase over the lake starting tonight and last through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front and developing strong low pressure system. Southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots will be likely over the lake with some gusts approaching 40 knots possible at times. Winds do diminish with time by Thursday as the low pressure system becomes closer to the lake. At this time, the low pressure track is a bit uncertain but the computer models are coming closer to a consensus on the track. Cold front slips southeast of the lake Thursday night ushering in much colder air to the area. Winds diminish Friday out of the southwest but begin to increase again by evening as a reinforcing cold front moves east across the lake. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible Saturday behind the cold front. Warmer temperatures and gusty winds will likely cause ice on the lake to break up and shift around dramatically over the few days. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for OHZ003- 006>013-017>021-027>030-036-037-047-089. PA...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for PAZ001>003. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ001. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Saunders SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
940 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 The main change to the evening forecast was to reflect more in the way of cloud cover. We will also mention isolated power outages Wednesday from the gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. IR imagery loops show an extensive area of cold cloud tops headed toward Lower MI. Bufkit overviews suggest these clouds will have bases up around 20k ft tonight. By daybreak...low level moisture will be on the increase as well from the west so we may see some showers starting to show up then. Given the thickening CI clouds moving in...we will trend the forecast towards mostly cloudy skies. A very strong low level jet moves in tonight and stays over the region through much of Wednesday. Several models are showing 70 kts up around 3k ft. Fortunately with snow on the ground and the warmer air moving over the shallow cold air...mixing heights are progged to be limited. Still we should mix into the 30 kt range of winds which commonly leads to at least isolated power outages. The latest HRRR and RAP are trying to mix deeper than the other models which would raise the risk for winds exceeding 40 kts for places like Jackson. This will need to be monitored. For now we will add the risk to the Hazardous Weather Outlook for isolated power outages being possible. I would not rule out some fog from the warmer part of this system into at least part of Wednesday night. The relatively warmer and moist airmass moving over the snow...even with the wind...could support some fog. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 - Rain Wednesday into Wednesday night, Mixed precip late A northern stream low tracking across southern Canada on Wednesday trails a cold front across Lower Michigan and intersects deep moisture transport from the Gulf, with strong isentropic upglide resulting in rain blossoming along front Wednesday afternoon. The axis of heavier rain shifts south and east Wednesday night as the cold front advances. A potential forecast problem here is that forecast thermal profiles indicate shallow cold air will move in on northeast winds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the southern forecast area, including the I-94 corridor, resulting in a period of sleet and freezing rain before the change to snow. Up to a tenth of an inch of incing is possible in this area. Further north, the deep cold air moves in with a quick transition to snow. - Snow Thursday, heaviest in the afternoon We then turn our attention to the southern stream low which is also tapping Gulf moisture as it tracks through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Strong frontogenesis will be across the southern half of Lower Michigan, with a stripe of 6 inches or more of snow expected to result somewhere across our central or southern forecast area by Thursday night. The location is still to be pinned down as the 12Z GFS and ECMWF stubbornly maintain their differences, with the GFS being further north. Because of the model guidance being fairly evenly (and persistently) divided into separate camps, we held off on a Winter Storm Watch. The snow clears the eastern zones Thursday night followed by a cold air on Friday and a clipper bringing a couple inches of snow on Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 618 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Low level wind shear will be the main hazard for the TAF sites into Wednesday. A strong low level jet will be arriving tonight. This will lead to conditions favorable for wind shear. The surface gust will increase on Wednesday...with values over 30 knots likely from the south southwest. The low levels will remain dry through the morning so conditions will remain VFR however during the afternoon...rain will be moving in as the low level moisture increases. MVFR conditions look likely. We will need to monitor the fog risk as surface dewpoint climb over 32 and we still have plenty of snow on the ground. Fog could develop despite the gusty wind conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 South to southwest gales tonight and Wednesday then a slight lull Wednesday night before winds go northeast and increase again to gales on Thursday afternoon and evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Forecast QPF for the rain through Wednesday night ranges from a half inch across the Muskegon and Pere Marquette basins to around an inch across the Kalamazoo and St Joseph basins along with the headwaters of the Grand. Along with snowmelt, this will lead to rises of a couple feet on the tributaries and 1 to 2 feet on the mainstem rivers by the end of the week. The rises on the Muskegon and Grand could also cause ice movement and jams to form, which would freeze in place by the weekend as cold air returns. We will monitor trends in runoff from snowmelt and rainfall, which could have significant impacts on river response, especially across southern Lower Michigan where the amount of rain could be higher than currently forecast. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...Ostuno MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
605 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday. Southerly surface winds will be on the increase Wednesday with gusts above 25kt becoming common by afternoon. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION....Tonight and Wednesday...The ArkLaMs is currently on the western periphery of a surface high pressure ridge centered over the East Coast. The main concern this afternoon continues to be the critical fire weather conditions, as gusty winds are combining with Rh`s around 20 to 30 percent. A Red Flag Warning is in affect until 6PM. The winds will diminish this evening, but will remain breezy overnight. Low temperatures will fall into the 40s across the area tonight. Wednesday the ridge will weaken over the area, as a strong short wave and associated cold front approach the region. Clouds will be on the increase on Wednesday and as the surface gradient increases, the winds will become gusty Wednesday afternoon, especially across the Delta with gusts from 25 to 35 mph. With Rh`s only falling into the 45 to 55 percent range on Wednesday, expect reduced fire weather concerns, but will have to be monitored. /15/ Wednesday night through early next week... The main concern with the long term will be potential for severe weather on Thursday. A negatively tilted upper trough will swing across the Desert Southwest Wednesday night and across the Southern Plains. As this occurs, a surface low will develop across Oklahoma and track northeast across the Mid-South. Southerly winds will be rather brisk through the night as the pressure gradient remains tightened. These winds will only increase during the day on Thursday, which may lend credence to a Wind Advisory in later forecasts. For now, we will start with a limited wind risk for late Wednesday night through Thursday and allow for any upgrades with further guidance. In addition, a low level jet of around 50-60kts will help moisture surge back into the region Wednesday night. This will result in dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid 60s by daybreak on Thursday as well as overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s in the west to upper 50s in the east. Timing with the storms on Thursday remains a little inconsistent with some guidance being faster and some slower. However it still looks to be an event that takes place during the daytime hours with the best timing being around noon to early evening(6pm or so). Models vary in the amount of surface base CAPE available with the NAM being one of the more robust solutions but there should be plenty of instability present given the 50-60kt deep layer wind shear present. Timing will be key as to how storms develop. Recent HRRR run shows a slower solution which could bring a greater severe potential for a larger portion of the area as opposed to a faster solution. Some of the better parameters, better influence of forcing will be north of I-20 and east of I-55. Much of the guidance indicates the the severe weather and the bulk of the precipitation will be to our east by evening Thursday. Cooler air will move in in its wake but this won`t last for long as southerly flow resumes quickly. Temperatures will moderate back into the 60s over the weekend with the 70s by early next week. Dry weather will occur as high pressure moves in though Sunday night. Early next week, another round of rain will be possible ahead of a shortwave trough and developing sfc low. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 48 73 60 75 / 0 13 19 100 Meridian 44 69 57 74 / 0 13 18 100 Vicksburg 49 75 62 76 / 0 13 24 100 Hattiesburg 45 73 59 75 / 1 13 34 100 Natchez 50 75 62 75 / 0 12 24 100 Greenville 48 73 61 74 / 0 2 43 100 Greenwood 49 72 61 74 / 0 5 33 100 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
608 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 603 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Updated forecast to expire Red Flag Warning for the southern tier plains counties in the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 ...A Red Flag Warning will continue to be in effect until 6pm MST for for zones 230, 233, and 237, which includes Baca County and lower elevations of Las Animas County... Key messages: 1) Strong and gusty winds over the southeastern plains, coupled with low relative humidity values, will allow for critical fire weather conditions to be in place for Baca County and the lower elevations of Las Animas County throughout the early evening hours. 2) As a low pressure continues to approach the region, clouds will further increase and ceilings will lower with cooler air moving into southeast Colorado by tomorrow morning. 3) Snow showers will begin over the central mountains by later in the afternoon, and a few snow showers will also be possible over the Rampart Range and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains as well. This will continue to spread southeast throughout the evening. Detailed discussion: Currently... Current satellite imagery displays a broad and dense cirrus shield over the plains due to mountain wave effects, as part of a larger baroclinic leaf over the region. Strong and gusty winds over the southeast plains are going to continue throughout the early part of the evening. Spotty critical fire weather conditions are still possible across other areas, including Huerfano, southern Pueblo and El Paso Counties, and isolated areas across parts of the higher terrain. Critical fire weather conditions are going to continue over Baca County, and the lower elevations of Las Animas County until 8pm MST. After that time, RH recoveries, along with decreasing winds over these areas will allow for critical fire weather conditions to end. Tonight... The major shortwave trough is going to continue to advance towards the region. Clouds will continue to increase in the upper levels over most of the region. The cloud cover should help to inhibit radiational cooling to some extent and not allow temperatures to get as cold as the NBM shows for certain locations. Winds will be weakening and becoming more diurnally driven throughout the night and low temperatures will fall to around the mid 20s over most of the plains, to around the low teens for the San Luis Valley and the higher mountain valleys, to generally in the teens for all other high country and single digits for the highest peaks. Tomorrow... As the low pressure system continues to approach by early tomorrow morning, a weak frontal boundary looks to mover other the area early in the morning. The HRRR shows this moving in around 10Z for El Paso County, and then transition southward slowly to the around 12Z over Pueblo County and over the lower Arkansas River Valley, where it looks to weaken as stall out. This will allow for cooler air to infiltrate southeast Colorado, and additionally with cloud cover, will not allow temperatures to warm as much as what the NBM was displaying. For this reason, the 50th percentile of NBM was utilized. Clouds will continue to lower and increase. The HRRR also suggests that precipitation will begin to start moving in over the most northern extent of the Sawatch Range around 21Z (2pm MST), the NAM 4km brings this in a little earlier at around 19Z (noon) , and over the San Juan Mountains as well. Snow showers will continue to spread further southeastward throughout the afternoon and spread over the CWA and possibly beginning over the plains as early as 22Z (3pm MST). Winds will become easterly after FROPA for most areas over the plains. Highs will top out around the low 40s to low 50s over most of the plains, upper Arkansas River Valley, and San Luis Valley, and in the teens to 30s for high country. -Stewey .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 ...Unsettled winter weather ending early Thursday, than another winter system early next week... A couple of winter weather systems will affect the region during this period. The first system will be ongoing at the beginning of this time period and last into Thursday morning. The second system will move into the mtns on Monday, and may last into Wednesday. The first system will be ongoing at the beginning of this time period with snow likely over a large part of the region. Some locally heavy snow will be possible, especially in Teller county Wednesday evening. Snow will continue into the night and will be ending Thursday morning. Winter weather hilites have been issued for mainly the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region and the eastern mountains. Overall snow totals will be in the 1-3" range over the plains with 2-4 inches near the mtns. Locally heavier amounts will be possible in the N sections of El Paso county, especially NW of Monument. In the E mtns/Pikes Peak 3 to 8" are likely. Contdvd will see amounts of 2 to 6". The SLV may see an inch or two. Some snow may linger THU AM over the s tier and then come to an end by early afternoon. The weekend will be quite nice with the best day being Sunday. Another substantial trough will move into the region starting Monday in the mtns, moving east over the entire region by Monday nite and lasting into mid wee. This is substantiated by the ensemble guidance qpf fields showing the potential for a rather long duration event. Total accums dont look all that spectacular at this time but any precip is beneficial. Given the SW flow trajectory, the southwest mountains may do quite well with this event. There will likely be cold enough air to work with for the event to be a snow event. /Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 308 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds at KALS are currently being influenced by the troughing upstream, which are strong and gusty out of the SW. These winds will continue to decrease by later in the evening. A weak frontal passage looks to occur tomorrow morning at around 10Z for KCOS with a slight windshift from NE`y to a more NNW`ly direction and at KPUB around 12Z with a slight windshift from WNW`y to NNW`ly. Upper level CIGs will continue to lower towards the end of the forecast period as the low pressure system advances closer to the CWA. Winds will also increase again out of the SW again for KALS towards the end of the forecast period, and out of the SE for KCOS as the pressure gradient further tightens from the approaching system. -SHSN could be possible in the vicinity of KCOS and KALS by around 22Z. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ072>075-079>082-084. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...STEWARD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
812 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 812 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Gusty southerly winds continue at this hour in response to an approaching storm system that will start to bring precipitation possibly as early as late tonight. Wind gusts at this hour have dropped below wind advisory criteria across NE OK with several locations gusting between 25 and 35mph. A stray gust to 40mph remains possible though confidence was not high enough to continue with the Wind Advisory thus the advisory was canceled early with this update. Skies were partly cloudy to mostly clear across the southern half of the CWA, but this is expected to change as the night progresses as low level moisture continues to stream into the area overnight raising dew points and increasing low level cloudiness. It`s entirely possible drizzle or light rain begins to fall just before sunrise across far SE OK but low confidence precluded a mention in this forecast update. The bulk of the preliminary precipitation looks to hold off until after sunrise. Temperatures are expected to slowly fall through the night thanks to increasing cloudiness and mixing from gusty winds that will continue through the night. With that said, temperatures were nudged up a touch given the latest trends. An update will be issued shortly. Snider && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 A few showers will be possible during the day Wednesday, especially across the southern and eastern parts of the forecast area, but the main event will hold off until later Wednesday night into Thursday. Elevated convection will likely increase across parts of the area Wednesday evening, with a marginal threat for hail, but the greater severe weather threat will likely be after midnight as a line of showers and storms sweeps east across the area along and ahead of an advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but shear will be strong, so damaging winds will be possible, and perhaps even a weak tornado or two, especially in southeast Oklahoma. Significant model differences persist on the track and intensity of the system, which makes for a difficult forecast with regards to the winter weather potential Thursday. The ECMWF depicts a weaker surface system, and hence a more southern solution with significant winter weather into parts of northeast Oklahoma. The extended range HRRR concurs with this. The rest of the numerical models show a stronger surface system, and a corresponding northward location of significant wintry weather. For now, will show a transition to freezing rain and eventually snow Thursday, with the precipitation ending in the afternoon. The best chances for accumulating ice and snow remains near the Kansas border. After a chilly night Thursday night, a rapid warmup will take place Friday into the first of next week. Another strong cold front is due in by Tuesday, which may set the stage for potentially significant wintry weather across a larger portion of the forecast area later next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 446 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Gusty winds will continue through the forecast period. Stratus will develop and expand northward overnight with MVFR ceilings expected area wide by late tonight into early morning. Expecting a generally widespread and persistent MVFR flight level through the day however localized rises into low VFR levels are possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 70 36 38 / 10 20 100 60 FSM 51 70 57 59 / 0 30 90 60 MLC 55 69 55 57 / 10 30 100 30 BVO 55 71 34 36 / 10 20 100 80 FYV 51 65 54 56 / 10 30 100 70 BYV 52 66 54 56 / 0 30 100 80 MKO 54 69 47 49 / 10 30 100 50 MIO 54 67 35 37 / 0 30 100 80 F10 56 70 45 47 / 0 30 100 40 HHW 53 69 57 59 / 10 50 90 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
820 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Have continued to increase pops and expand them further east on the SD plains early this evening based on radar/observations. Have also upped snow amounts a bit, mainly in the southern Black Hills region as hi-res solutions are painting a little more snow for that area. Amounts are still expected to remain below advisory critieria. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Upper trough stretches across the western CONUS, placing the northern plains in WSW flow. At the surface, low pressure is over eastern WY, with a warm front west to east across western SD, and a cold front pushing in from the west. Breezy northwesterly winds are accompanying the cold front, with some light precipitation trailing behind. Under mostly cloudy skies, southern parts of the area have risen into the 50s, while northwestern SD remains in the 30s. A period of gusty winds is expected just east and southwest of the Black Hills this afternoon and evening as the front squeezes past. Models differ on wind speeds: while some forecast soundings indicate the possibility of 40 to 50 mph winds mixing down, most keep winds below advisory criteria - even CONSMOS and the NBM 90th percentile. Over the past few hours, the HRRR has trended down. Although it is possible that winds briefly reach criteria, will forgo issuing a Wind Advisory. Snow will continue to spread into northeastern WY and southwestern SD tonight and Wednesday, along the area of best lift and moisture. Still expecting up to a couple of inches on the plains, with slightly higher amounts possible over the Black Hills, although upslope enhancement won`t be much of a contributing factor. Little to no snow is expected across most of the western SD plains. After a chilly Wednesday, temperatures will begin to warm through at least Saturday. Upper ridging will set up over the western CONUS, and a period of dry and mild weather can be expected. A passing shortwave could bring some gusty winds to the area Friday. Highs will return to the 40s and 50s by Friday, with some areas near 60 on Saturday. Ensemble temperature spreads increase significantly Sunday, as temperatures will depend on the timing of a cold front. Nudged highs down a bit Sunday. Models continue to show a large upper trough approaching our area early next week, bringing with it much colder air and a chance for some snow. NAEFS and GEFS don`t show temperatures being anomalously cold for this time of year, but compared to the mild temperatures we`ve had, it will be noticeable. It`s too soon to predict snow amounts, but so far this system looks like the best chance we`ve had in a while for widespread accumulating snowfall. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 331 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 A cold front will continue to cross the region this evening, with gusty northwest winds and MVFR cigs becoming fairly widespread from northeast WY into northwest SD. Expect areas IFR VSBYS in light snow across northeast WY and northwest SD this evening, persisting overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions will linger in northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills tomorrow morning, with gradual clearing during the afternoon. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ Update...Johnson DISCUSSION...Pojorlie AVIATION...Johnson