Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/15/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 115 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated low amplitude
ridge was centered over the northern Rockies with closed low
circulation digging into the Pacific Northwest. This system will be
the primary driver of more active weather across the Plains during
the middle of this week. A weak short wave trough was also noted
moving over the Goodland CWA, but given the very dry airmass and
overall stable conditions already in place, think this system will
result in little in the way of sensible weather.
Late afternoon and Tonight...Expect surface trough to continue to
deepen as sfc high is displaced to the east, resulting in breezy
southerly winds through the early evening. With increasing flow
across the mountains expect lee trough to maintain it`s strength if
not deepen somewhat overnight. Net result will be for winds to stay
up in several locations overnight, resulting in warmer temperatures
than the past few mornings. These winds will not be uniform however
and any area that decouples will likely be several degrees colder
than surrounding area.
Tuesday-Tuesday night...Flow aloft will switch to more southwesterly
direction as west coast storm system digs towards the four corners
region. Initially fairly quiet weather is expected across the region
with well above normal temperatures and very dry conditions
expected. Cold front will sweep across region after 00z Wednesday
ushering much colder weather. Could potentially see snow enter
eastern Colorado by sunrise Wed, but given how dry the airmass is
expected to be ahead of the front this does not seem to be a pattern
where precipitation onset would be fast.
With temperatures climbing into the 60s and a prevailing dry airmass
fire weather concerns remain. However, some concern that the winds
may not be realized across much of the area due to proximity to
trough axis. While winds may approach 25 mph gusts in the extreme
east, threat seems low. In fact latest cycle of data would suggest
strongest winds occurring in western part of CWA where deep mixing is
the most likely. Given the marginal wind speeds and overall
humidity values above 15% have opted not to issue any fire watches
or warnings at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
Wednesday, the upper flow aloft will shift to the SW as a surface to
300 mb stacked area of low pressure moves over the Great Basin and
into the Four Corners region. The latest guidance has the low
associated with the lee trough sitting along the Front Range moving
over the Tri-State area early Wednesday morning as a cold front
moves south across the Plains. With the approaching front and
movement of the low, there is potential for some light snow
Wednesday morning mainly in Eastern Colorado; however, an Arctic
surface high will be expanding SW into the area behind the front,
limiting the amount of moisture available. During the day, the low
over the Front Range is expected to continue east across the Plains,
going around the nose of high pressure. Current guidance has the
high shifting the path of the low mainly to Southern Kansas and the
Panhandles. With limited moisture advecting in from the NW on the
western edge of the high, the area is expected to see mainly
flurries with the best chance for any measurable snow in eastern
Colorado with a possible second max along and south of US-40. How
far east and north the moisture is able to go will depend on how far
south the high pushed The surface system is expected to move away
from the area Wednesday night while the upper trough stalls over the
Rockies. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s
for highs with overnight lows in the teens.
While the upper trough sits over the Rockies on Thursday, it is
expected to become positively-tilted as the northern extent of the
trough moves towards the Great Lakes. The Tri-State area is expected
to be dry Thursday for much of the day with a brief surface ridge
moving across the Plains during the day. A few straggling areas of
light snow/flurries are possible Thursday morning south of US-40;
however, confidence is not very high. The ridge will be pushed along
by a weak surface trough extending into the area from the Canadian
border Thursday night. The upper trough is expected to move east
Thursday night through Friday. Dry conditions are expected to
continue on Friday. Cooler temperatures will stick around on
Thursday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. These temperatures
could be slightly cooler depending on the amount of snow the area
receives. Overnight lows are currently forecast to drop into the
teens to low 20s. Friday`s temperatures are forecast to range in the
50s for highs and the be mainly in the 20s overnight.
Saturday, the area will be under an upper ridge that is expected to
flatten with the upper flow nearly zonal Saturday night into Sunday
morning due to a cut-off low moves over the Great Basin. The GFS and
ECMWF are struggling to agree on the placement and strength of the
low as it moves east. Dry conditions are expected over the weekend.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS have the upper trough moving through the
area Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures in the 50s to low 60s
are expected Saturday with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s.
Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the period with highs in the
60s across the area. Overnight lows are expected to be similar to
Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures return Monday with highs
in the lower 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the teens to low
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions through the period. A south wind around
13kts at taf issuance will continue through much of the night
under gradually increasing high clouds. On Tuesday, south winds of
9-13kts are expected, highest in the afternoon under broken high
cloudiness.
KMCK...VFR conditions through the period. A south-southeast wind
around 11kts is expected from taf issuance through much of the
night is expected under gradually increasing high clouds. On
Tuesday, south-southeast winds of 10-12kts are expected under
broken high cloudiness.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
217 PM PST Mon Feb 14 2022
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A cold front is
over the forecast area. Surface observations and satellite would
place the front somewhere along a line from Connell-Hermiston-
Prineville. Precipitation amounts so far have been less than 0.10
inch in our forecast area, but there have been some embedded
45-50 dBZ returns that indicate heavier showers. Web cams at Spout
Springs and Meacham are now showing the roads turning white.
Forecast thoughts remain the same--snowfall amounts with this
system will range from around 2-5 inches in the northern Blues and
the east slopes of the WA/OR Cascades but the Cascade crest from
Mt. Adams south to Mt. Bachelor as well as the Eagle Cap
Wilderness will have considerably heavier accumulations of 6-12
inches. Since the heavy snow will occur along the higher peaks, no
winter highlights are required for tonight. I removed the slight
chance of thunderstorms over central and north Oregon this
evening, as SPC`s Mesoscale Analysis shows instability is marginal
at best, and the strong shear at 80 kts from 0-6 km would just
shear off the top of any vertical developing cumulus. The HRRR is
not showing any convective cells greater than 50 dBZ this evening.
Winds vary across the area and are locally windy with strongest
winds down in the Deschutes River Basin where gusts 30-40 mph have
been observed. Winds will diminish overnight after the frontal
passage and surface winds decouple from winds aloft.
Scattered mountain snow showers Tuesday morning will end during
the afternoon and evening. Although Tuesday will be the coolest
day of the 7-day forecast period, the temperatures are near
seasonal with highs in the 30s in the mountains and 40s to lower
50s in the lower elevations.
The rest of the short term period will be quiet weather wise. The
high pressure ridge will rebuild off the eastern Pacific, leaving
the PacNW under a northerly flow aloft. There may be occasional
flurries or a light snow shower along the Cascades Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, models have been hinting at a shortwave moving south
across ID that could bring light snow to the Wallowa Mountains. At
this time, it looks like a slight chance but bears watching as the
low level upslope may result in more accumulations than
advertised by the models. Wister/85
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The long term is
characterized by high pressure ridging controlling the PacNW
initially that will be broken down by a small cutoff upper level
low that isn`t expected to bring major significant weather, but
will pave the way for a deeper and stronger trough during the
weekend that will increase our precipitation chances by the end of
the forecast period.
To begin the extended period, high pressure offshore of the PacNW
will be mostly in control of the region, while a trough pattern
over the Rockies and Central US will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten. This will produce some breezy winds while also
promoting mild to seasonably warm temperatures with lower
elevations in the low to upper 50`s. Into Friday, deterministic
models are in agreement that a low will form off of a trough
stretching off of Alaska that will make its way down into the
region and break up some of the ridging pattern. Models do show
this system being moisture starved, leading to limited significant
impacts aside from a breakup of the upper level pattern that will
be followed by a deeper trough with more noteworthy impacts
during the weekend.
Much like the previous forecast mentioned, there is some
uncertainty in the arrival of the weekend system across our CWA,
as ECMWF members show a shallower trough arriving earlier, while
the GFS shows a deeper and more impactful system arriving further
into Sunday. Cluster phase space analysis of the ensembles
continues to show a tighter agreement between the GFS and its
ensembles, leading to this remaining the favored solution for this
system. In either case, the mountains will see mostly snowfall
while the lower elevations experience rainfall from this, though
cooler temperatures from this mostly continental based system
should help to lower snow elevations and allow some of the valleys
to receive more snow compared to previous systems. Goatley/87
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours as precipitation continues to make
its way across the region. Showers end for BDN/RDM by 06Z, with
lingering precipitation possible for PDT/ALW through 12Z. Gusty
winds continue as the front makes its way across, lessening for
all sites by around 06Z. Some stronger winds have been seen for
RDM after mixing down this afternoon. Goatley/87
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 32 49 31 50 / 20 10 0 0
ALW 35 50 34 50 / 30 20 0 0
PSC 34 53 33 54 / 30 0 0 0
YKM 28 52 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
HRI 34 53 34 53 / 20 10 0 0
ELN 30 46 30 47 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 25 47 26 47 / 30 0 0 0
LGD 30 39 27 40 / 60 20 0 0
GCD 28 42 27 42 / 50 20 10 0
DLS 38 53 39 53 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...85
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
248 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for zones 230, 233, and 237,
which includes Baca County and lower elevations of Las Animas
County, from 11am to 6pm MST for Tuesday...
Key messages:
1) Stronger westerly winds will be felt over the higher peaks of the
Sawatch Range and then increase over the Sangre de Cristo and San
Juan Mountains later tonight due to troughing upstream.
2) Winds will continue to increase tomorrow out of the west for the
higher locations and southwest for the lower elevation, becoming
rather strong and gusty, which will allow for critical fire weather
conditions to be in place for southern areas of the plains.
3) High temperatures will be well above the seasonal average for
most of the CWA tomorrow, especially over the plains, as
southwesterly flow results in adiabatically warming downsloping
winds.
Detailed discussion:
Currently...
High pressure conditions are in place and satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies over southeast Colorado. Southerly winds have
allowed for high temperatures to be quite mild for many locations
and above the seasonal average, especially over the plains. These
winds will continue to
Tonight...
High pressure conditions will be in place with mostly clear skies
and this will allow for radiational cooling to bring down
temperatures close to the seasonal average for most locations. Due
to the troughing upstream, winds will continue to increase over the
higher elevations and over some areas of the plains throughout the
night. The downsloping winds will cause these locations to be
slightly warmer, especially over the southeastern plains. Over the
plains, lows will be anywhere from the low 20s on the lower Arkansas
River Valley where it will be more wind protected, to around 40 over
areas of eastern Las Animas County which will be impacted by the
winds. Low will generally be in the single digits for the San Luis
Valley and the highest mountain valleys, and in the teens and 20s
for all other high country.
Tomorrow...
As the ridge further breaks down and the longwave trough over
central CONUS deepens to allow for a major shortwave trough upstream
over the northwestern states to propagate towards the region, the
tightening of the pressure gradient will cause winds to continue to
increase over the plains throughout the day. Combination of this
with dry conditions in place over the southern plains will result
in critical fire weather conditions to be in place beginning
around 1 pm and persist until around 8pm for the lower elevations
of Las Animas County, as well as Baca County. The HRRR shows winds
reaching criteria beginning around 18Z (11am local time) around
the most southern areas of Las Animas County near the Colorado/New
Mexico border, and then advancing northward throughout the
afternoon. Due to this, a Red Flag Warning (RFW) has been issued
for Winds and RH values will also be in criteria for Huerfano
County, however, fuels are not receptive yet in this area due to
recent snowfall and therefore was left out of the RFW. These
conditions are expected to improve with RFW criteria ending around
6pm.
The downsloping nature of these winds will also allow for
temperatures to become very warm and well above the seasonal average
for this time of year, especially over the plains. Highs over the
southeastern plains and lower Arkansas River Valley will get over 70
degrees in certain locations, and generally be in the mid to upper
60s for the rest of the plains. High temperatures will be in the 50s
in the upper Arkansas River Valley and mid 40s to low 50s in the
San Luis Valley, and generally in the 30s to 40s for high country
with upper teens to 20s for the highest peaks. -Stewey
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
...Unsettled winter weather Wednesday into midday Thursday...
The primary concern during this forecast time period will be a bout
of wintry weather starting Wednesday and lasting into midday
Thursday. Snow will ramp up over the high terrain Wednesday morning
and push east by afternoon, with likely snow by early evening over
the I-25 corridor. Snow will occur regionwide Wednesday night and
decrease early Thursday. The snow may linger along the CO/NM high
terrain into later Thursday. Another stout mid level trough will
affect the region Monday night into Tuesday.
For Wednesday, a primary concern will be the potential for some
freezing precip occurring over the Palmer Divide, especially
Wednesday afternoon. Precip values are not expected to be
significant, but any freezing precip on exposed surfaces could be a
concern. Per sounding data, the atmosphere should saturate aloft and
this should allow the precip to change over to all snow. There is a
good chance that rush hour Wednesday will see the highest impacts
from this event as this is the time we will see the heaviest precip
along the entire I-25 corridor.
Although this will be a widespread event (and confidence is high
that it will occur), the impacts from this event will likely be less
than the storm we saw about 2 weeks ago. Although there is some cold
air with this event, it is not arctic in nature, and the system will
not last as long. Overall, snow amounts should be 4 to 7" in the
mountains and an inch or two on the plains and San Luis Valley. the
I-25 corridor region and the higher interior valleys should see 2 to
4".
Thursday will be quite cool with gradually clearing skies, with
lingering snow showers over the higher terrain along the CO/NM
border.
Very mild/dry weather is expected this weekend with the warmest
weather Sunday. Another weather system will move in late Monday into
Monday night. May see some fire weather issues on Monday. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022
VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB)
throughout the forecast period. Winds will be generally light and
diurnally driven at all terminals. Winds will become slightly
influenced by troughing upstream later in the morning tomorrow,
towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for COZ230-233-
237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...STEWARD