Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/14/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
948 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022
A surface trough will remain straddled across the area until a
ridge enters the region overnight to move this feature northeast.
High pressure will continue to build into the area on Monday
before becoming centered overhead on Tuesday. High pressure
slides east Tuesday night, allowing a warm front to move across
the region by Wednesday morning. Low pressure over northern
Ontario will race northeast and extend a cold front across the
Great Lakes region for mid-to-late week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...
The last push of lake enhanced snow is moving across the area
now from Ottawa and Erie Counties through much of north central
and NE Ohio. This is associated with the mid/upper trough axis
swinging across the region and finally pushing the surface
trough south. low-level convergence and strong lift through a
moist DGZ is generating squalls of heavy snow within this area
of light snow. Increased PoPs through 06Z, but after that, drier
air and a lowering inversion is still expected to diminish the
activity to scattered flurries as surface high pressure builds
into the Ohio Valley. Additional snow amounts early tonight will
generally be 1 inch or less, but an isolated 2 inch amount is
possible. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
6:30 PM Update...
It`s been an interesting afternoon and evening as a meso low in
a weak boundary layer flow regime has slowly progressed ESE
across north central and NE Ohio bringing enhanced bands of
heavy lake-effect snow. Most spotter reports have been 1-3
inches over the past 12 hours, but some areas west and south of
Cleveland have likely exceeded 4 or 5 inches. The meso low
tracked along a surface trough that has been draped from
southern Michigan through north central Ohio all day. An
approaching mid/upper trough from Michigan has raised inversion
heights over 10,000 feet and generated lots of moisture and lift
through the DGZ, along with dropping 850 mb temps to around -20
C leading to moderate to extreme lake induced CAPE. This
combined with convergence along the aforementioned surface
trough and meso low has led to these localized higher snowfall
amounts since the snow is fluffy with 20:1 ratios. The axis of
the mid/upper trough is now moving into western Lake Erie, and
this will finally begin to push the surface trough south by mid
to late evening. Before that happens, continued lift from the
mid/upper trough passage through a saturated DGZ will continue
to bring widespread light lake enhanced snow with periodic
bursts of heavier snow. Increased PoPs to cover this activity. We
are beginning to lose the best convergence since the meso low
is exiting, but we still have enough in the presence of the
surface trough for the occasional heavy bursts. Generally expect
an additional 1-2 inches this evening across north central Ohio
with less across NE Ohio and NW PA. RAP BUFKIT soundings and
plan views show moisture and lift rapidly decreasing after 04Z
from west to east as surface high pressure builds in and the
trough moves out, so expect snow showers to diminish to flurries
before ending by 10Z.
Main focus of the forecast is a surface trough across the area,
stretching from southern Lower Michigan to North Central Ohio
to Southwest Pennsylvania. Along this trough in northern Ohio, a
mesolow, along with added lake influence from relatively open
waters of west central Lake Erie, has allowed for snow to be
persistent across Erie, Huron, and Lorain counties with one inch
per hour snowfall rates. Snow is high ratio, "fluffy" snow
which allowing for accumulations in this area to rack up, but
general impacts are more limited to visibility changes moreso
than impact from total snowfall amounts. These features will
promote good snowfall rates over the next couple of hours and
will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory as is for now. The
surface trough will remain across the area as a shortwave trough
aloft moves through the Great Lakes region. Enhancement of snow
with this upper trough is being noted across the Lake Michigan
region into southwest Lower Michigan and will push east along
the surface trough into the forecast area this evening and
tonight. Have increased PoPs across the area to a mix of likely
to categorical given upper support and great surface convergence
with the surface trough. Suspect an inch to maybe two inches of
snow (especially where we have had issues so far today) with
this feature later this evening and travel tonight could be
hazardous in some locations. Trended temperatures tonight up
with widespread cloud cover across the area but a chance to
decouple late - higher single digits are more likely than
temperatures closer to zero than what some guidance is showing,
which has not gone well in this pattern.
High pressure builds in for Monday and will push the surface
trough northeast, allowing for dry weather. Temperatures will be
similar to today with highs in the 20s. One final push of
moisture will move across the region on Monday night as the
trough continues northeast and there will be a window for lake
effect snow over the eastern portion of the lake, which looks to
mainly impact western NY but some snow could get into Erie PA.
Low temperatures on Monday night will remain cold in the single
digits for most.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into place on Tuesday but will quickly exit
the region. As high pressure moves eastward, southerly flow will
lead to warming across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of
the next system. It should remain dry through into Wednesday ahead
of the next system. Low pressure moving eastward across the northern
Great Lakes will swing a cold front across the Great Lakes region
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will increase and become
gusty Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of this cold front. Wind
gusts could reach 30 to 40 miles per hour Wednesday afternoon and
evening, especially in the western half of the CWA.
There still remains some uncertainty as to the exact location of the
cold front as another low pressure center approaches from the
southwest. Regardless of the placement of the cold front,
substantial moisture will advect into the region by late Wednesday
with the approaching low pressure system from the southwest.
Both high and low temperatures on Tuesday will remain normal for
this time of year. By Wednesday, strong southerly flow will lead to
high temperatures rising to the low 50s across the region. With
above average temperatures on Wednesday will lead to much of the
remaining snow to melt ahead Low temperatures Wednesday night will
vary from west to east associated with the arrival of the cold
front. Temperatures in the western most locations of the CWA will be
near freezing with the remainder of the region experiencing lows
near 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The placement of the cold front on Thursday continues to vary
between models. Where the front is located will heavily determine
precipitation type on Thursday. Regardless of the fronts location,
plenty of moisture will be available leading to substantial
precipitation to fall across the region by Thursday afternoon. QPF
amounts look to range between 1 to almost 1.5 inches across the
region. These liquid amounts plus any snowmelt that takes place on
Wednesday could lead to flooding issues across much of the region.
The system looks to move quickly out of the region by Friday morning
with a chance for lingering precipitation late Thursday evening
through early Friday morning. Winds behind the low will be
northerly, bringing cooler air into the area Thursday evening. This
will cause any lingering precipitation to transition from rain to
Temperatures on Thursday will be lower in the extreme western sites
of the CWA, near 40 degrees. Highs will be in the mid 50s across the
eastern CWA. We will remain briefly dry on Friday behind this system
and ahead of a clipper on Saturday. High pressure moves into the
region for Friday. High and low temperatures on Friday will be below
A clipper system will move north of the region Saturday into
Saturday afternoon and bring another shot of snow for extreme
northeast Ohio and NW PA. Sunday brings in yet another high pressure
system and will keep the area dry. Temperatures for both Saturday
and Sunday will remain seasonal.
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Periods of light snow will continue to impact the terminals
this evening along with periods of MVFR cigs and vis. A few
bursts of briefly heavy snow are possible bringing vis as low as
1/2 mile at times. This is most likely at YNG, CLE, and CAK.
The snow coverage will diminish from west to east after 05Z, but
a few light flurries or snow showers will continue most of the
night at CLE, CAK, YNG, and ERI, but nothing heavy. TOL and FDY
have already gone to prevailing VFR, and expect this to continue
through the night. However, periods of MVFR will hold through
the night at the other sites. All sites will return to VFR
Monday as high pressure builds in.
Light N to NW winds of 5-10 knots this evening will become W
Monday with similar speeds.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night through Friday.
Light and variable winds continue over the lake through Monday
afternoon. High pressure moves into the region on Monday and will
cause winds to become westerly between 5 and 10 knots. By late
Monday winds will become northeasterly between 10 and 15 knots.
Winds become light and variable Tuesday afternoon before becoming
easterly overnight Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
A surface trough approaches Lake Erie during the day Wednesday.
This will cause winds to become southerly and increase
throughout the day Wednesday. Winds will range between 20 and 30
knots Wednesday evening. After the surface trough passes, winds
will dissipate to 10 to 15 knots and become westerly by
Overnight Thursday winds will shift to become southeasterly and will
increase to 15 to 25 knots and remain southeasterly through Friday
morning. By Friday afternoon, winds diminish becoming between 5 and
10 knots and westerly.
As for waves, they will remain insignificant until mid week. As
southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon and evening, waves
offshore will range between 3 and 7 feet across the open waters east
of The Islands. After the low pressure system on Wednesday moves
away from the region, waves will subside. Another brief period of
significant waves occurs overnight Thursday into Friday with have
heights ranging between 3 and 5 feet east of The Islands. These
higher wave heights subside by early Friday afternoon.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for OHZ009-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022
At the beginning of the short term period, current RAP analysis
shows the CWA underneath the front part of an upper air ridge to the
west and having a northwesterly flow. Current satellite imagery is
showing mostly clear skies across the CWA. Going into Sunday night,
model guidance shows the flow turning more west-northwesterly as the
ridge progresses eastward. At the surface, dry conditions and clear
skies look to persist through the remainder of Sunday with winds
slowing a bit going into the evening as a weak surface low passes
quickly through the CWA. Overnight lows for tonight look to be in
the lower to upper 20s range.
On Monday, forecast models show the CWA between the ridge
progressing eastward in the north with a subtropical trough moving
eastward just south of the CONUS. This pattern looks to cause the
CWA`s flow aloft to start off mostly westerly during the daytime
and then to change to a northwesterly direction by the evening
hours. At the surface, the aforementioned departing low looks to
swing a cooler air mass behind it into the CWA during the morning
hours that moves out in the late afternoon as models show a warm
air mass pushing it out from the south-southwest. Dry conditions
expect to continue with some breezy winds from the south during
Monday. Daytime highs on Monday look slightly cooler than Sunday`s
being in the middle 50s while overnight lows expect to be in the
lower to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022
Main focus for this part of the forecast will continue to be the
trough moving onto the Plains mid week.
Tuesday a short wave ridge will move over the forecast area ahead of
the next trough. Latest model data has a warm front nosing up into
the southern part of the forecast area, around Highway 40. South of
the warm front temperatures will be in the 70s, and southwest winds
will be breezy. North of the front temperatures will still be much
warmer than normal, however the southerly winds will be lighter.
Tuesday night a strong cold front moves through the forecast area.
Behind the front north winds will be breezy. Overnight
precipitation may begin to move in from the west as the dew point
depressions in the atmosphere lessen.
Wednesday the closed low at the south end of the long wave trough
will change direction and head east instead of southeast. This
eastward movement will direct dry air over the forecast area during
the afternoon, pushing the lower dew point depressions to the west.
Precipitation will be directed more to the west of the forecast area
as a result. However latest model consensus has chances for
precipitation further east than expected. It could happen, however
confidence isn`t very high that it will. With continued CAA through
the day, am doubtful temperatures will warm much from the night.
Lowered highs from model consensus to account for this. Northerly
winds will be breezy through the day.
Wednesday night the long wave trough continues eastward. This may
allow the precipitation west and northwest of the forecast area to
move through. Meanwhile CAA will continue over the forecast area.
Regarding precipitation, there could be a short timeframe Wednesday
morning of freezing drizzle as the cold air mass deepens. However,
am not confident enough to place a mention in the forecast at this
time. Further east rain is mentioned in the forecast, however am
doubtful that will happen due to the CAA through the day. At the
very least any rain should last shorter than currently forecast.
Snow amounts continue to go down.
Regarding model performance, both the GFS and ECMWF have been quite
consistent with the track/speed of the trough over the last 4 model
runs or so. The ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS, however both
have the trough well south of the forecast area.
Thursday CAA will continue as the trough moves east of the forecast
area. Wind chills in the morning will be -5 to -10F. Lowered highs
from model consensus to account for this. CAA should end during the
Friday through Sunday WAA occurs as the ridge builds in from the
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 357 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022
VFR conditions expected for both terminals thru the forecast
period. Winds for KGLD, southwest around 10-20kts diminishing to
around 10kts and shifting west-northwest by 05z-07z Monday. By
14z, shift to south-southwest around 5-10kts, gusts 20-25kts from
19z onward. Winds for KMCK, southwest 10-15kts becoming northwest
by 04z Monday. By 12z, light/variable becoming southeast by 16z
around 10-20kts, strongest after 19z.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022
Issued at 915 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2022
Reinforcing cold front is arguably just south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, and we have seen some snow showers
with it mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. Impacts so far
have been minimal as we just haven`t seen the intensity that had
previously concerned us. The better lapse rates have remained
primarily to our north and east, but we have received reports of a
quick dusting around Cynthiana.
Could continue to see a few flurries or even some light snow showers
through about midnight. The window for impactful accumulations or
visibility problems has largely closed in central Kentucky, but
can`t rule out a few slick spots north and east of Lexington. Will
tweak hourly temp trends a tick lower but any updates to legacy
forecasts will hold off until we are tapered down to flurries.
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022
Regional radar mosaic shows light snow showers falling across
central Indiana/Illinois this afternoon. Surface observations
confirm these light snow showers as a mid-level shortwave and
associated vort max works across the region this afternoon and
evening. These snow showers will eventually slide in across our
southern IN/northern KY counties by late afternoon and early
evening. Model soundings continue to suggest steep low-level lapse
rates and good saturation through the DGZ and up to 800-750mb this
afternoon. RAP snow squall parameter approaches 1.5 to 2 across
southern IN/northern IN later this afternoon/evening but around the
same time we lose the steep low level lapse rates. Given that we
lack any good forcing and instability, main impact from any snow
showers will be possible slick conditions and at times lower
visibility if we see more intense bursts. This is also a concern
given higher traffic expected later this evening due to the big
game. Expect a skiff of snow for most location along or north of I-
64 as QPF is just around a few hundreths of an inch, but a few spots
could see a quick half an inch depending on snow shower intensity.
Snow exits out off to the east by Midnight east of Lexington as
clouds break a bit overnight. A second weaker shortwave will slide
through the area by early morning on Monday. Just a few light snow
showers or flurries are possible by daybreak with no accumulation
expected. Lows will be in the upper teens to near 20 thanks to
Surface high pressure builds in over the region tomorrow as skies
clear out and temperatures turn a little warmer than today with
highs ranging from the mid/upper 30s across southern IN and the
Bluegrass with low 40s south and along the Western Kentucky and Blue
.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022
Summary: Expect dry weather with moderating temperatures for the
first half of the week, very warm and gusty on Wednesday. Widespread
rain Wednesday night through Thursday, ending as brief light snow
Thursday night. Dry weekend with seasonable temperatures.
Monday night - Wednesday
This period will be dry with moderating temperatures as high
pressure translates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
By Wednesday winds right out of the south gusting to 30-35mph will
carry afternoon temperatures into the 60s, about ten degrees below
record highs for the date. Went on the warm side of guidance as a
Wednesday night - Thursday Night
Rain: Very high confidence in widespread moderate rains
Severe storms: Low
Snow accumulation on the back side of the storm: Medium
Well-advertised large scale storm system will sweep from the Plains
to the East Coast during this period. Precipitation will enter from
the west late Wednesday night, cover the region Thursday, then move
off to the east Thursday night.
On Thursday a deepening surface low just ahead of a digging upper
trough will travel from Arkansas to Ohio, bringing plenty of warmth
and moisture northward ahead of it. By afternoon surface dew points
will approach 60 with precipitable water values at the top of the
climatology around 1.2-1.5". Shift of tails for QPF is slightly
above zero with EFI around .7, signaling an unusually rainy event,
but not necessarily an extreme one. Right now QPF is in the 1 1/2 to
2 inch range over 24-30 hours, with 6hr FFG on the order of 2 to 3
1/2 inches. The greatest 6-hourly rainfall rates should be around an
inch. Soils across Kentucky as of yesterday were wetter than normal,
but we`ll have a few a few days of good drying before the rain
arrives, and any light snows we might see tonight-tomorrow will not
add appreciably to soil wetness. All this is not to say that there`s
no threat of flooding, but it may take training bands of moderate
rain to create local flooding issues. As for river flooding,
GEFS/NAEFS/HEFS indicate it is unlikely, with the possible exception
of the lower Green where the probabilities of minor flooding are
around 30-40 percent next weekend.
SPC has pulled the Day 5 15% contour back to the southwest a bit,
ahead of a strong vort max ejecting out of the mean upper trough
into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Lapse rates to the northeast in our
neck of the woods look to be weak (but enough for some possible
embedded thunder), and various CAPE values look low, around 100-300
J/kg. Local soundings are saturated. Stronger instability will be
found to our southwest and south, from east Texas into Louisiana
Wednesday night and Louisiana to Alabama Thursday. Lightning density
and convective precip progs also suggest widespread thunderstorm
activity to our south, possibly robbing us of some moisture and
instability. Still, deep layer shear will be very strong and GFS is
showing large, looping hodographs, so it will be important to
continue to monitor this system for any increase, even slight, in
Similar to Wednesday, Thursday should be another breezy day with
gusts of 30-35 mph a possibility...with enhanced gusts in the more
Thursday night cold air sweeping in behind the system will chase the
departing precipitation. At this time it looks like any snows
Thursday night would be light, possibly creating a dusting in grassy
areas. Any light snow should be over by the time of the Friday
Friday - Sunday
The weekend looks dry with seasonable temperatures. A clipper may
scoot through the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday, but
otherwise our weather will be controlled by high pressure.
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022
VFR conditions with W winds in the process of shifting to NW, and
mainly mid-level ceilings in place. Expect ceilings to build down as
the cold advection takes over this evening, and there is some
question as to how far the snow showers noted over Indiana can push
We have seen some IFR vis restrictions to our north but echoes are
just not as strong as the snow shield tries to push into southern
Indiana. Will be an issuance time decision whether to include any
restrictions to vis in SDF or LEX, but either way can`t rule out at
least some brief MVFR vis. More confident in ceilings building down
into MVFR, but expect that to stay above 2000 ft. Should be VFR
across the board by midnight tonight, with winds going
light/variable overnight. Skies will clear and winds back to due
west again Monday mid/late morning.