Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/14/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
948 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will remain straddled across the area until a ridge enters the region overnight to move this feature northeast. High pressure will continue to build into the area on Monday before becoming centered overhead on Tuesday. High pressure slides east Tuesday night, allowing a warm front to move across the region by Wednesday morning. Low pressure over northern Ontario will race northeast and extend a cold front across the Great Lakes region for mid-to-late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 9:30 PM Update... The last push of lake enhanced snow is moving across the area now from Ottawa and Erie Counties through much of north central and NE Ohio. This is associated with the mid/upper trough axis swinging across the region and finally pushing the surface trough south. low-level convergence and strong lift through a moist DGZ is generating squalls of heavy snow within this area of light snow. Increased PoPs through 06Z, but after that, drier air and a lowering inversion is still expected to diminish the activity to scattered flurries as surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Additional snow amounts early tonight will generally be 1 inch or less, but an isolated 2 inch amount is possible. The rest of the forecast remains on track. 6:30 PM Update... It`s been an interesting afternoon and evening as a meso low in a weak boundary layer flow regime has slowly progressed ESE across north central and NE Ohio bringing enhanced bands of heavy lake-effect snow. Most spotter reports have been 1-3 inches over the past 12 hours, but some areas west and south of Cleveland have likely exceeded 4 or 5 inches. The meso low tracked along a surface trough that has been draped from southern Michigan through north central Ohio all day. An approaching mid/upper trough from Michigan has raised inversion heights over 10,000 feet and generated lots of moisture and lift through the DGZ, along with dropping 850 mb temps to around -20 C leading to moderate to extreme lake induced CAPE. This combined with convergence along the aforementioned surface trough and meso low has led to these localized higher snowfall amounts since the snow is fluffy with 20:1 ratios. The axis of the mid/upper trough is now moving into western Lake Erie, and this will finally begin to push the surface trough south by mid to late evening. Before that happens, continued lift from the mid/upper trough passage through a saturated DGZ will continue to bring widespread light lake enhanced snow with periodic bursts of heavier snow. Increased PoPs to cover this activity. We are beginning to lose the best convergence since the meso low is exiting, but we still have enough in the presence of the surface trough for the occasional heavy bursts. Generally expect an additional 1-2 inches this evening across north central Ohio with less across NE Ohio and NW PA. RAP BUFKIT soundings and plan views show moisture and lift rapidly decreasing after 04Z from west to east as surface high pressure builds in and the trough moves out, so expect snow showers to diminish to flurries before ending by 10Z. Original Discussion... Main focus of the forecast is a surface trough across the area, stretching from southern Lower Michigan to North Central Ohio to Southwest Pennsylvania. Along this trough in northern Ohio, a mesolow, along with added lake influence from relatively open waters of west central Lake Erie, has allowed for snow to be persistent across Erie, Huron, and Lorain counties with one inch per hour snowfall rates. Snow is high ratio, "fluffy" snow which allowing for accumulations in this area to rack up, but general impacts are more limited to visibility changes moreso than impact from total snowfall amounts. These features will promote good snowfall rates over the next couple of hours and will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory as is for now. The surface trough will remain across the area as a shortwave trough aloft moves through the Great Lakes region. Enhancement of snow with this upper trough is being noted across the Lake Michigan region into southwest Lower Michigan and will push east along the surface trough into the forecast area this evening and tonight. Have increased PoPs across the area to a mix of likely to categorical given upper support and great surface convergence with the surface trough. Suspect an inch to maybe two inches of snow (especially where we have had issues so far today) with this feature later this evening and travel tonight could be hazardous in some locations. Trended temperatures tonight up with widespread cloud cover across the area but a chance to decouple late - higher single digits are more likely than temperatures closer to zero than what some guidance is showing, which has not gone well in this pattern. High pressure builds in for Monday and will push the surface trough northeast, allowing for dry weather. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the 20s. One final push of moisture will move across the region on Monday night as the trough continues northeast and there will be a window for lake effect snow over the eastern portion of the lake, which looks to mainly impact western NY but some snow could get into Erie PA. Low temperatures on Monday night will remain cold in the single digits for most. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move into place on Tuesday but will quickly exit the region. As high pressure moves eastward, southerly flow will lead to warming across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next system. It should remain dry through into Wednesday ahead of the next system. Low pressure moving eastward across the northern Great Lakes will swing a cold front across the Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will increase and become gusty Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of this cold front. Wind gusts could reach 30 to 40 miles per hour Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially in the western half of the CWA. There still remains some uncertainty as to the exact location of the cold front as another low pressure center approaches from the southwest. Regardless of the placement of the cold front, substantial moisture will advect into the region by late Wednesday with the approaching low pressure system from the southwest. Both high and low temperatures on Tuesday will remain normal for this time of year. By Wednesday, strong southerly flow will lead to high temperatures rising to the low 50s across the region. With above average temperatures on Wednesday will lead to much of the remaining snow to melt ahead Low temperatures Wednesday night will vary from west to east associated with the arrival of the cold front. Temperatures in the western most locations of the CWA will be near freezing with the remainder of the region experiencing lows near 40 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The placement of the cold front on Thursday continues to vary between models. Where the front is located will heavily determine precipitation type on Thursday. Regardless of the fronts location, plenty of moisture will be available leading to substantial precipitation to fall across the region by Thursday afternoon. QPF amounts look to range between 1 to almost 1.5 inches across the region. These liquid amounts plus any snowmelt that takes place on Wednesday could lead to flooding issues across much of the region. The system looks to move quickly out of the region by Friday morning with a chance for lingering precipitation late Thursday evening through early Friday morning. Winds behind the low will be northerly, bringing cooler air into the area Thursday evening. This will cause any lingering precipitation to transition from rain to snow. Temperatures on Thursday will be lower in the extreme western sites of the CWA, near 40 degrees. Highs will be in the mid 50s across the eastern CWA. We will remain briefly dry on Friday behind this system and ahead of a clipper on Saturday. High pressure moves into the region for Friday. High and low temperatures on Friday will be below average. A clipper system will move north of the region Saturday into Saturday afternoon and bring another shot of snow for extreme northeast Ohio and NW PA. Sunday brings in yet another high pressure system and will keep the area dry. Temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday will remain seasonal. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Periods of light snow will continue to impact the terminals this evening along with periods of MVFR cigs and vis. A few bursts of briefly heavy snow are possible bringing vis as low as 1/2 mile at times. This is most likely at YNG, CLE, and CAK. The snow coverage will diminish from west to east after 05Z, but a few light flurries or snow showers will continue most of the night at CLE, CAK, YNG, and ERI, but nothing heavy. TOL and FDY have already gone to prevailing VFR, and expect this to continue through the night. However, periods of MVFR will hold through the night at the other sites. All sites will return to VFR Monday as high pressure builds in. Light N to NW winds of 5-10 knots this evening will become W Monday with similar speeds. Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday night through Friday. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds continue over the lake through Monday afternoon. High pressure moves into the region on Monday and will cause winds to become westerly between 5 and 10 knots. By late Monday winds will become northeasterly between 10 and 15 knots. Winds become light and variable Tuesday afternoon before becoming easterly overnight Tuesday ahead of a cold front. A surface trough approaches Lake Erie during the day Wednesday. This will cause winds to become southerly and increase throughout the day Wednesday. Winds will range between 20 and 30 knots Wednesday evening. After the surface trough passes, winds will dissipate to 10 to 15 knots and become westerly by Thursday afternoon. Overnight Thursday winds will shift to become southeasterly and will increase to 15 to 25 knots and remain southeasterly through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, winds diminish becoming between 5 and 10 knots and westerly. As for waves, they will remain insignificant until mid week. As southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon and evening, waves offshore will range between 3 and 7 feet across the open waters east of The Islands. After the low pressure system on Wednesday moves away from the region, waves will subside. Another brief period of significant waves occurs overnight Thursday into Friday with have heights ranging between 3 and 5 feet east of The Islands. These higher wave heights subside by early Friday afternoon. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for OHZ009- 010-019-020. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Iverson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 236 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows the CWA underneath the front part of an upper air ridge to the west and having a northwesterly flow. Current satellite imagery is showing mostly clear skies across the CWA. Going into Sunday night, model guidance shows the flow turning more west-northwesterly as the ridge progresses eastward. At the surface, dry conditions and clear skies look to persist through the remainder of Sunday with winds slowing a bit going into the evening as a weak surface low passes quickly through the CWA. Overnight lows for tonight look to be in the lower to upper 20s range. On Monday, forecast models show the CWA between the ridge progressing eastward in the north with a subtropical trough moving eastward just south of the CONUS. This pattern looks to cause the CWA`s flow aloft to start off mostly westerly during the daytime and then to change to a northwesterly direction by the evening hours. At the surface, the aforementioned departing low looks to swing a cooler air mass behind it into the CWA during the morning hours that moves out in the late afternoon as models show a warm air mass pushing it out from the south-southwest. Dry conditions expect to continue with some breezy winds from the south during Monday. Daytime highs on Monday look slightly cooler than Sunday`s being in the middle 50s while overnight lows expect to be in the lower to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 123 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Main focus for this part of the forecast will continue to be the trough moving onto the Plains mid week. Tuesday a short wave ridge will move over the forecast area ahead of the next trough. Latest model data has a warm front nosing up into the southern part of the forecast area, around Highway 40. South of the warm front temperatures will be in the 70s, and southwest winds will be breezy. North of the front temperatures will still be much warmer than normal, however the southerly winds will be lighter. Tuesday night a strong cold front moves through the forecast area. Behind the front north winds will be breezy. Overnight precipitation may begin to move in from the west as the dew point depressions in the atmosphere lessen. Wednesday the closed low at the south end of the long wave trough will change direction and head east instead of southeast. This eastward movement will direct dry air over the forecast area during the afternoon, pushing the lower dew point depressions to the west. Precipitation will be directed more to the west of the forecast area as a result. However latest model consensus has chances for precipitation further east than expected. It could happen, however confidence isn`t very high that it will. With continued CAA through the day, am doubtful temperatures will warm much from the night. Lowered highs from model consensus to account for this. Northerly winds will be breezy through the day. Wednesday night the long wave trough continues eastward. This may allow the precipitation west and northwest of the forecast area to move through. Meanwhile CAA will continue over the forecast area. Regarding precipitation, there could be a short timeframe Wednesday morning of freezing drizzle as the cold air mass deepens. However, am not confident enough to place a mention in the forecast at this time. Further east rain is mentioned in the forecast, however am doubtful that will happen due to the CAA through the day. At the very least any rain should last shorter than currently forecast. Snow amounts continue to go down. Regarding model performance, both the GFS and ECMWF have been quite consistent with the track/speed of the trough over the last 4 model runs or so. The ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS, however both have the trough well south of the forecast area. Thursday CAA will continue as the trough moves east of the forecast area. Wind chills in the morning will be -5 to -10F. Lowered highs from model consensus to account for this. CAA should end during the night. Friday through Sunday WAA occurs as the ridge builds in from the west. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 357 PM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 VFR conditions expected for both terminals thru the forecast period. Winds for KGLD, southwest around 10-20kts diminishing to around 10kts and shifting west-northwest by 05z-07z Monday. By 14z, shift to south-southwest around 5-10kts, gusts 20-25kts from 19z onward. Winds for KMCK, southwest 10-15kts becoming northwest by 04z Monday. By 12z, light/variable becoming southeast by 16z around 10-20kts, strongest after 19z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 915 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2022 Reinforcing cold front is arguably just south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, and we have seen some snow showers with it mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. Impacts so far have been minimal as we just haven`t seen the intensity that had previously concerned us. The better lapse rates have remained primarily to our north and east, but we have received reports of a quick dusting around Cynthiana. Could continue to see a few flurries or even some light snow showers through about midnight. The window for impactful accumulations or visibility problems has largely closed in central Kentucky, but can`t rule out a few slick spots north and east of Lexington. Will tweak hourly temp trends a tick lower but any updates to legacy forecasts will hold off until we are tapered down to flurries. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Regional radar mosaic shows light snow showers falling across central Indiana/Illinois this afternoon. Surface observations confirm these light snow showers as a mid-level shortwave and associated vort max works across the region this afternoon and evening. These snow showers will eventually slide in across our southern IN/northern KY counties by late afternoon and early evening. Model soundings continue to suggest steep low-level lapse rates and good saturation through the DGZ and up to 800-750mb this afternoon. RAP snow squall parameter approaches 1.5 to 2 across southern IN/northern IN later this afternoon/evening but around the same time we lose the steep low level lapse rates. Given that we lack any good forcing and instability, main impact from any snow showers will be possible slick conditions and at times lower visibility if we see more intense bursts. This is also a concern given higher traffic expected later this evening due to the big game. Expect a skiff of snow for most location along or north of I- 64 as QPF is just around a few hundreths of an inch, but a few spots could see a quick half an inch depending on snow shower intensity. Snow exits out off to the east by Midnight east of Lexington as clouds break a bit overnight. A second weaker shortwave will slide through the area by early morning on Monday. Just a few light snow showers or flurries are possible by daybreak with no accumulation expected. Lows will be in the upper teens to near 20 thanks to linger clouds. Surface high pressure builds in over the region tomorrow as skies clear out and temperatures turn a little warmer than today with highs ranging from the mid/upper 30s across southern IN and the Bluegrass with low 40s south and along the Western Kentucky and Blue Grass Parkways. .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Summary: Expect dry weather with moderating temperatures for the first half of the week, very warm and gusty on Wednesday. Widespread rain Wednesday night through Thursday, ending as brief light snow Thursday night. Dry weekend with seasonable temperatures. Details: --- Monday night - Wednesday --- This period will be dry with moderating temperatures as high pressure translates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. By Wednesday winds right out of the south gusting to 30-35mph will carry afternoon temperatures into the 60s, about ten degrees below record highs for the date. Went on the warm side of guidance as a result. --- --- Wednesday night - Thursday Night --- Confidence: Rain: Very high confidence in widespread moderate rains Flooding: Low-medium Severe storms: Low Snow accumulation on the back side of the storm: Medium Well-advertised large scale storm system will sweep from the Plains to the East Coast during this period. Precipitation will enter from the west late Wednesday night, cover the region Thursday, then move off to the east Thursday night. On Thursday a deepening surface low just ahead of a digging upper trough will travel from Arkansas to Ohio, bringing plenty of warmth and moisture northward ahead of it. By afternoon surface dew points will approach 60 with precipitable water values at the top of the climatology around 1.2-1.5". Shift of tails for QPF is slightly above zero with EFI around .7, signaling an unusually rainy event, but not necessarily an extreme one. Right now QPF is in the 1 1/2 to 2 inch range over 24-30 hours, with 6hr FFG on the order of 2 to 3 1/2 inches. The greatest 6-hourly rainfall rates should be around an inch. Soils across Kentucky as of yesterday were wetter than normal, but we`ll have a few a few days of good drying before the rain arrives, and any light snows we might see tonight-tomorrow will not add appreciably to soil wetness. All this is not to say that there`s no threat of flooding, but it may take training bands of moderate rain to create local flooding issues. As for river flooding, GEFS/NAEFS/HEFS indicate it is unlikely, with the possible exception of the lower Green where the probabilities of minor flooding are around 30-40 percent next weekend. SPC has pulled the Day 5 15% contour back to the southwest a bit, ahead of a strong vort max ejecting out of the mean upper trough into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Lapse rates to the northeast in our neck of the woods look to be weak (but enough for some possible embedded thunder), and various CAPE values look low, around 100-300 J/kg. Local soundings are saturated. Stronger instability will be found to our southwest and south, from east Texas into Louisiana Wednesday night and Louisiana to Alabama Thursday. Lightning density and convective precip progs also suggest widespread thunderstorm activity to our south, possibly robbing us of some moisture and instability. Still, deep layer shear will be very strong and GFS is showing large, looping hodographs, so it will be important to continue to monitor this system for any increase, even slight, in instability. Similar to Wednesday, Thursday should be another breezy day with gusts of 30-35 mph a possibility...with enhanced gusts in the more robust showers. Thursday night cold air sweeping in behind the system will chase the departing precipitation. At this time it looks like any snows Thursday night would be light, possibly creating a dusting in grassy areas. Any light snow should be over by the time of the Friday morning commute. --- --- Friday - Sunday --- The weekend looks dry with seasonable temperatures. A clipper may scoot through the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday, but otherwise our weather will be controlled by high pressure. --- && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 VFR conditions with W winds in the process of shifting to NW, and mainly mid-level ceilings in place. Expect ceilings to build down as the cold advection takes over this evening, and there is some question as to how far the snow showers noted over Indiana can push southward. We have seen some IFR vis restrictions to our north but echoes are just not as strong as the snow shield tries to push into southern Indiana. Will be an issuance time decision whether to include any restrictions to vis in SDF or LEX, but either way can`t rule out at least some brief MVFR vis. More confident in ceilings building down into MVFR, but expect that to stay above 2000 ft. Should be VFR across the board by midnight tonight, with winds going light/variable overnight. Skies will clear and winds back to due west again Monday mid/late morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...RAS Short Term...BTN Long Term...13 Aviation...RAS