Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/11/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
558 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Storm system tonight promising accumulating snow this evening, then potential for snow/drizzle (freezing?) chances but minimal accumulations overnight into Friday. Windy pre and post the system. FORCERS: upper level shortwave trough still on track to drop from northwest Canada and across the Upper Mississippi River Valley overnight/Fri morning. Associated sfc low moves over the MN arrowhead by this evening, pulling a warm front across the region as it moves across the U.P. of Michigan during the overnight. Strong, but somewhat narrow north-south running band of low level warming ahead of the front, evident in 850 mb warm air advection and upglide on the 280:295 K sfcs. This is maxed across the local area between 00-06z. Narrow fgen band in the same region, focused from 00-03z. Farther aloft, still some aid expected with the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak. The system`s cold front hangs due west of the low and on track to drop south/southeast across the local area Fri morning and should clear by 18z. Some fgen with the boundary while low level lapse rates (1000:850 mb) remain perky through the afternoon hours - suggesting some convective snow showers will be possible. All in all, the system continues to look essentially the same as it did a few days ago, with similar timing. SATURATION: no tap to southerly moisture, although some eastward push of 850 mb moisture transport into the north-south running warm front. Bufkit soundings and time/height x-sections show ample saturation as the system moves in, but starts to shallow out overnight as mid level drying knifes in - likely removing ice from the cloud. Saturation deepens with the approach of the cold front, with enough cold air also moving in to bring ice back into the cloud layer. TEMP: non-diurnal curve to the temp profile tonight as temps climb post warm front this evening. Cold front then drops southward across the forecast area mid morning Fri, with push of cold air in its wake. Temps look to fall through the day. So, highs today will be at midnight, with highs Friday likely just a few minutes after that. Fri lows will be closer to midnight. PCPN TYPES/AMOUNTS: snow will be the pcpn type with the thermodynamics this evening, with highest accums still holding north of I-94 (2-4"). Amounts generally an inch or less south of there. The snow will likely last about 3 to 4 hours at most locations, with rates nearing 1" per hour in the heaviest snow. Post the band, the shallowing of the cloud depth removes ice, thus a change over to liquid. However, sfc temps are also on the climb post the eastward advancing warm more likely drizzle rather than freezing. Still, see a short window for freezing potential and that will have to monitored. Snow showers could return early Friday morning as cloud layer deepens/cooling a loft and cold front drops through. Additional accums look minimal at this time. Not seeing a need to expand current winter weather advisory at this time. WIND: breezy to blustery, depending on perspective. Southerly fetch increasing through the afternoon/early evening as pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching warm front. Winds swing to the west with warm front passage, then northwest later Fri morning as storm system`s cold front drops through. Still looking sub advisory with gusts generally under 40 mph expected. With relatively wet nature of the expected snowfall, and existing snow pack having picked up water over the last few days, blowing/drifting snow not expected to be an issue. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 The surface low pressure shifts off to the Great Lakes on Saturday following suit of the driving upper level trough. Lobes of mid level vorticity advect on the nose of a subsequent upper level jet streak, providing adequate forcing for possible light snow Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, sensible weather concerns will be colder temperatures as 925 mb temperatures reach -25C for much of the forecast area according to the RAP (10.15Z). A surface high pressure will result in light winds, keeping already low surface temperatures, 5 to -5F, from reaching wind chill criteria at this time. Have also increased precipitation chances for Sunday night as as a slight kink advects along the northwest jet streak, and isentropic upglide at the 270K surface hovers near 5 ubar/s across central Wisconsin. Temperatures return to seasonable Monday, max temperatures in the 20s, with a mid level ridge across the Mountain West and a slight perturbation upstream over the Pacific Northwest as evident in cluster analysis. Further cluster analyses breakdown in agreement regarding the treatment of this perturbation on Tuesday. While mean analysis places a positively tilted trough over the Southwest U.S., European-leaning clusters close this low while further disagreeing on placement of the downstream ridge. Longer term deterministic models (GFS/ECMWF) demonstrate this disagreement in the upper level pattern and applicable sensible weather differences. Irregardless of specific trough location, the southerly placement of the shortwave energy results in tapping and convergence of Gulf moisture into the Midwest U.S. through midweek. Cluster QPF analysis places impacts from Texas to Maine, dependent on cluster (i.e. trough locale). GEFS/GFS Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) exhibits an atmospheric river with 500/1200 kg /ms, 97th percentile according to NAEFS/ENS... quite substantial moisture transport. The current forecast package places primary impacts to our forecast area Thursday into Friday from the deformation band of a deepening surface low traversing the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Nailing out any specific details at this time is futile, however, should be kept an eye on as placement and direction of this substantial moisture transport can result in a firehose of equally substantial impacts. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 A potent storm system will bring a wintry mix of precipitation and strong winds to the TAF sites this evening with MVFR/patchy IFR conditions. Bands of snow and a snow/sleet mix with some rain mixed in or changing to drizzle. Additional precipitation possible overnight, however looks to be transient. South winds 20 to 25kts with gusts 30 to 40kts becoming southwest this evening. Did include a period of low level wind shear due to the directional sheer and wind of 50 to 55kts aloft. The winds shift to the west and northwest 15 to 20kts with gusts 20 to 30kts after midnight. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Friday for WIZ017. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rieck LONG TERM...JAR AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
842 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 .DISCUSSION...Many areas broke the inversion today and temps warmed into the 50s and 60s. Models show higher surface pressure Friday indicating cooling but the breakthrough today was not forecast by yesterday`s models. HRRR came closest yesterday and is showing about 5 degrees cooling Friday. Other models and our forecast are cooling about 10 degrees. We hesitate to update as the HRRR is an outlier. For now we will stay with our current forecast but confidence is low. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Patchy MVFR/IFR in fog/low stratus is expected late tonight and Friday morning in the KBKE and KMYL areas and the Lower Treasure Valley (KEUL, KONO). Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: northwest 20-40 kt. Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR with light winds. Patchy late night and morning valley fog and stratus. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...A continued ridge of high pressure building in from the west will allow for dry and mostly clear conditions through the weekend. Patchy fog and low clouds are still expected in the lower Treasure Valley tonight and Friday night as the temperature inversion continues in the valleys. Normal or slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as an extensive upper level trough passes to our east and a slight shortwave trough passes to our southwest, bringing slightly colder air into southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...An upper level trough forming south of the Aleutians will deepen as it moves over the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. Models continue to show the system moving inland over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, then diving south over Nevada and California Monday night and Tuesday. Current timing has precipitation spreading across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho from the north on Monday and ending in most areas by Tuesday morning. Snow showers could continue over the mountains through Tuesday evening. Precipitation totals are still uncertain, but relatively light amounts are expected in the valleys, falling as a mix of rain and snow. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be above normal in the mountains and southeast Oregon and near normal in the valleys through Monday. Temperatures will be near normal across the area Tuesday through Thursday. .AIR STAGNATION...A prolonged ridge of high pressure in our region is leading to lower mixing heights and light surface winds. This will continue hazy conditions with patchy fog and low clouds in the lower Treasure Valley. This will last through the weekend, until a cold front moves through Monday with stronger surface winds and cooling aloft for better ventilation. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....BW PREV SHORT TERM...SA PREV LONG TERM....JT AIR STAGNATION....LC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
515 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 As expected, it`s mild across the plains this afternoon. Temperatures today have generally hit the mid 50s to low 60s, with the warmest temperatures observed from Boulder down into the Denver metro. Even Greeley managed to make it into the upper 40s to low 50s. Temperatures should remain mild this evening with downslope winds continuing. The first forecast challenge comes late this evening and overnight as a mountain wave amplifies. Cross-barrier flow increases to about 40kt after about 9pm tonight, with a robust stable layer near mountain top. The HRRR has been advertising gusts into the 70-85mph range above timberline in the Front Range, while other CAMs are a little more muted with the high wind signal. While the confidence in near-criteria wind gusts is high (HREF mean winds near 70mph), I still don`t think we`ll see widespread gusts above 75mph and have held off on any highlights. Still, gusts into the 65-70mph range will cause a good amount of blowing snow across the higher elevations tonight. A few gusts will also likely make it into the wind prone areas of Boulder and Jefferson counties, where a couple of gusts above 60 mph will be possible. Downslope flow will quickly be replaced by north-northeast winds early tomorrow morning as a cold front arrives. Gradual moistening of the low and mid-levels will take place through the morning and much of the early afternoon, with cloud cover increasing through the day. High-resolution guidance has reluctantly shifted towards a wetter solution, with HREF Probability Matched Mean QPF now showing a swath of 0.1-0.25 inches of liquid from BDU to DEN and south into the Foothills/Palmer. Model soundings show shallow upslope flow... extending up to about 750-700mb or so... and coupled with synoptic scale ascent from a nearby jet, should be enough for snow to develop in the mid-afternoon hours. Temperatures are fairly marginal and the best lift is below the DGZ, but we still could see a slick afternoon commute, especially for those heading up into the Foothills/Mountains in the evening hours. The current forecast made a minor bump up to snowfall totals in the area but no highlights are planned at this point. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 We`ll see drying from the north early Friday evening, with snow quickly becoming limited to areas from Denver west and south, and then fading out in those areas by midnight. There`s sharp warm advection and subsidence in mid levels after midnight which should result in quick clearing, but then some clouds will develop as the zone of warm advection lowers into the 600-500 mb layer where there is some moisture by Saturday morning. The combination of these clouds and the lack of wind on the plains may restrain the warming a bit on Saturday, though areas in and near the mountains where there will be some wind may fare better. Sunday through Tuesday will be dry and warm as a flat ridge moves over. Our forecast will remain nearer the warm side of the guidance envelope with highs near 60 in Denver. We should see some shallow valley inversions redeveloping, but starting from a fairly warm place and with lots of sun, those areas will just not be as warm as everywhere else. On Tuesday there may be some weak cyclogenesis beginning somewhere in eastern Colorado, but with the next system continuing to look a little slower, it doesn`t look like there will be a real cold front until at least Tuesday night. The model spread on the midweek system is not bad for this time range. There`s pretty good agreement on a substantial trough passing south of us on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the solutions currently show the strongest lift/best precipitation south of us, but this could come back either through less digging or a sharper trough that kicks the low out on a more south-to- north path. We should get a deep frontal zone with moist upslope flow which should be cold enough for snow at some point. Uncertainty about when will limit our PoPs for now, but there will likely be at least a little snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. This is a good candidate for a period of moderate snow, and heavy snow is not out of the question though it`s appearing that areas further south have better chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 515 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 VFR conditions through early Friday afternoon. Moderate westerly winds have developed this afternoon with some gustiness from time to time. Winds are expected to weaken at DEN and APA later this evening and turn more towards drainage. A mountain wave will reach BJC this evening with gusty westerly winds occurring sporadically throughout the night. A cold front will arrive tomorrow morning with a shift to gusty N/NE winds. A band of mid level frontogenesis will move over the terminals around 18-19Z tomorrow which will create light snow showers. Ceilings and visibility will drop into MVFR at least and will likely drop into IFR at some point during a heavier snow band. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 At the start of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows the CWA having a north-northwesterly flow aloft as the back part of a trough is over the CWA. Satellite imagery shows some high clouds traveling southward over a good portion of the CWA. Late Friday, models show the upper air flow turning more northwesterly as the trough starts to reorient itself. At the surface, dry conditions expect to continue through the overnight hours with surface winds turning northwesterly during the night around 10 to 15 kts. Overnight lows on Thursday range between the upper 20s and middle 30s. For Friday, forecast guidance shows the base of a reoriented upper air trough over the CWA yielding a west-northwesterly flow aloft. Closer to the surface, a cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes moves begins to move through the CWA during the morning hours. Behind this front, the CWA looks to see north-northwesterly winds that may gust up to between a possible 35- 40 kts with sustained winds possibly between 25 to 30 kts according to forecast model soundings during the afternoon hours. While the minimum RH values seen stay above 20 percent, there is a potential for elevated fire weather with these winds as the GDFI looks to be in the mid 30s for a good portion of the area. There looks to be a chance for light snow associated with a shortwave disturbance traveling through the flow aloft for the southwestern half of the CWA though minimal accumulation is expected. Daytime highs for Friday look to range between the lower 40s and lower 50s with overnight lows in the middle teens to lower 20s. The western portion of the CWA may see wind chill values in the single digits overnight as well. On Saturday, models show the back part of the upper air trough moving over the CWA causing a northerly flow aloft through the entire day. At the surface, there looks to be a surface low moving southeast through central NE during the day which may cause some breezy west-northwesterly winds during the afternoon around 15 kts. Dry conditions are expected throughout the day. Saturday`s daytime highs look to be in the middle 40s while overnight lows look to be around the 20 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 309 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 The first half of this time period will have rather benign weather as a short wave ridge builds over the Plains ahead of the next storm system. Highs will gradually warm each day through Tuesday when the ridge is overhead. Relative humidity values will approach threshold for fire weather concerns on Monday and Tuesday for East Central CO. During the latter half of the week the weather pattern will change as a closed upper level low moves over the Southern Plains. The last six model runs have been fairly consistent with placing a trough over the Central Plains Thursday. However the disagreement comes to what kind of trough will take shape. The data ranges from an open wave to a closed low. Looking at the GFS and ECMWF model ensemble data, there is a 30-40% chance for .1" or more of precipitation occurring, with higher chances to the east of the forecast area. This closed low is not too far south of the route that would be best for producing heaving snow for the forecast area. (Current forecast has rain changing to snow. Am doubtful there will be much rain given the CAA occurring.) Accompanying the closed low will be a strong cold front. Behind the front northerly winds will be windy. This will be a dramatic change in the weather from earlier in the week. Wind chills Thursday at sunrise will be in the single digits, which is likely not cold enough. Am expecting lows Wednesday night and highs Thursday to end up being cooler than the current forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 355 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 KGLD expects to see VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period beginning with west-southwesterly winds around 11 kts before northwesterly LLWS of 45 kts at 2 kft begins at 04Z. At 05Z, KGLD winds turn northwesterly around 13 kts with the LLWS increasing to 50 kts. By 11Z, LLWS near KGLD ends as winds turn north- northwesterly at 15 kts with a cold front passing through the area. Winds for KGLD look to increase to 17G28 kts at 15Z and speed up even more to 23G33 kts at 19Z. KMCK looks to see VFR conditions as well during the 00Z TAF period starting with west-southwesterly winds around 11 kts before the winds turn westerly with westerly LLWS of 40 kts at 2 kft at 05Z. At 07Z, KMCK winds turn west-northwesterly around 13 kts followed by them slowing to 7 kts by 09Z. Winds at KMCK turn north-northwesterly at 14Z with the cold front moving towards the area then speed up to around 23G35 kts at 16Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...076|
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1017 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers are gradually coming to an end over the mountains tonight. Deep southwest flow develops Friday and continues into Saturday, continuing warm temperatures across the region. A strong cold front will cross the area late Saturday into Sunday and return high temperatures in the region to the 20s. Low pressure likely passes to our east and out to sea Sunday night and early Monday. High pressure brings cool and dry weather to the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 1020 PM Update... Temperatures remain slow to cool tonight, so have made another round of tweaks to bring lows up. Otherwise, conditions are clearing south of the mountains while upsloping showers and clouds cling to the mountains. Cleaned up PoP/sky trends again to account for observations. 645 PM Update... The cold front has shipped east out of the area this evening with showers coming to an end. Cyclonic flow and upsloping will continue to support scattered showers near the international border, but things are quieting down with a westerly breeze developing. For the forecast... brought temps up by a couple degrees overnight with mixing expected to continue overnight in CAA. Also made a few tweaks to PoP and skies to better align with observed trends. Previously... A surface cold front and a short wave aloft cross the region this evening. Scattered light snow showers will continue across the far north with possibly a heavier snow shower across the far northern, higher terrain. This is supported by the latest 3 km Nam, HRRR and radar trends in a steep lapse rate environment. Snow squall parameters continue to run on the high side for early this evening across the far north. Latest observations, model soundings and GYX probability plots continue to support the precipitation in the form of rain over much of the rest of the forecast area. Surface temperatures will continue to be very mild through the evening hours before readings fall in a cold air advection environment. By late tonight, temperatures will fall into the 20s allowing for locally icy conditions on some untreated surfaces. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will gradually increase, thicken and lower on Friday as a broad area of warm air advection enters the Northeast. However, model soundings suggest the atmosphere will be initially dry across the region so the precipitation will likely hold off until Friday evening. Low pressure passes by to our north Friday night. It will continue to be on the mild side with above normal temperatures and mainly scattered rain showers across the region. Some snow shower activity can be expected over the northern, higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overview... Temperatures peak at the beginning of the extended period before a cold front pushes through the area Saturday afternoon. Another low pressure system approaches from the south on Sunday bringing a dusting of snow to the coast and Southern NH. High pressure takes over for early next week ahead of an approaching low pressure system at the end of the week bringing the best chance of widespread precip for the extended period. Details... Southwesterly flow peaks temperatures Saturday ahead of a cold front passing in the early afternoon. Highs are expected to peak in the mid 40`s with southern and coastal areas approaching 50. With dewpoints climbing into the 30`s in the warm sector, conditions will be favorable for snow melt, especially in areas south of the mountains. With the cold front passing, bringing in cold air for Saturday night, the melt-water will refreeze and could cause icy conditions in poor drainage areas. Snow and rain showers will likely be making their way into the mountains from the northwest over Saturday morning into the afternoon ahead of the cold front. These showers will be light and starting as snow. As temperatures climb through the morning, snow will transition to rain and a rain/snow mix before the cold front clears showers up, possibly changing some rain showers back to snow before they stop. Clouds will start to build back in Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the south offshore. Effects from this offshore system will be mostly felt along the coast and Southern NH in the form of heavy flurries to possibly and inch or two of snow Sunday evening through Monday. Ensemble consensus over the last 24 hours has been pointing to a low impact offshore event with low snowfall totals. High pressure takes over for early next week before a shortwave trough moves northeast from the lower midwest at the end of the week. For a day 8 storm, there is fairly good consensus between deterministic and ensemble models of an elongated warm front extending across the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence with a widespread stratiform precip shield. The development and strength of this system will be something to monitor as it comes closer, however at the moment widespread precip seems likely. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Scattered rain and snow showers will continue across the region through early this evening with the snow limited to northern areas. Areas of MVFR conditions expected with possibly a brief period of LIFR conditions in any heavier snow showers across the high terrain in the north. Conditions improve this evening from south to north to VFR. VFR conditions expected on Friday, before more light precipitation enters the region Friday night with MVFR conditions mainly confined to northern areas. Long Term...A cold front passing Sat could bring scattered SHRA/SHSN to the north and mountains bringing possible MVFR conditions before returning to VFR. The HIE area could experience periods of IFR or lower conditions. Another chance of restrictions is possible in coastal locations Sunday evening into Monday as a coastal low passes offshore with snow showers along the coasts. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA winds and seas persist overnight tonight behind the front as winds veer to the west from the southwest. SCAs conditions develop again Friday and Friday night over the outer waters as a southwesterly gradient redevelops over the region. Long Term...Marginal SCA conditions are possible Saturday with wind gusts approaching 25-30 kts offshore. SCA conditions diminish Sunday morning before returning late Sunday into Monday as a stronger low pressure system passes offshore. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150- 152>154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ151. && $$ UPDATE...Casey NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Thunberg
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Given the dry air mass still in place, the MinT`s were nudged slightly cooler tonight. Temperatures should generally remain above freezing tonight, although a few patches of frost could develop in a few spots where winds are lightest. Looking at observational trends over the last few days, prime heating and mixing conditions have seen deep mixing conditions dry out dew points to the low end of guidance each day, as well as boost winds and temps a little over guidance during the peak mixing period. Even with the lower level flow taking on a little more southerly direction, mid-level trajectories will be from a more westerly direction and help to advect in warm, dry air from the Southern High Plains. MaxT`s Friday should be a few degrees warmer than today, with dew points only seeing a slight uptick. Blended a mix of latest RAP and HRRR dew points through the afternoon tomorrow, which yields minimum relative humidity values once again around 25% (give or take). With an approaching cold front, a stronger pressure gradient will help keep winds breezier tomorrow. The combined humidity and wind values through the ArkLaMiss Delta will approach critical fire weather thresholds for our area, and additional messaging may be needed in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and fire wx products for tomorrow. We`ll evaluate the latest suite of 00Z guidance, but suffice to say conditions will be dry and windy tomorrow. Several parish and county burn bans were added in the region today, and any activities that produce flames or sparks near vegetation are discouraged. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Friday: Temperatures tonight will be notably warmer with winds increasing and becoming southwesterly. Lows tonight fall into the lower 40s F, about 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Behind a departing shortwave trough, winds aloft will remain northwesterly and overall the sensible weather will remain similar on Friday as compared to today. Dry air and high pressure will be in control and temperatures will warm quickly into the lower 70s F for most. While southerly winds may help keep our dewpoints into the 30s F as opposed to the 20s F seen in previous days, the additional wind and warmer temperatures will serve to continue hazardous fire weather conditions. The Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) product will continue to advertise this risk with an Elevated (2/4) risk for increased wildfire danger. Winds will likely be gusty Friday, and some areas of the Mississippi River Delta could see wind gusts between 20-25 mph with 15-20 mph gusts possible elsewhere. /86/ Friday night through Wednesday: Come Friday evening a dry cold front will be approaching our CWA from the northwest. This cold front will be driven by a deepening upper level trough diving through the Plains. The cold front is expected to move into our northwest most zones prior to sunrise Saturday morning and be nearly along the Natchez Trace by noon. Although the cold front will be dry, a potent northern stream shortwave helping to deepen the upper level trough will try to squeeze out some anafrontal precipitation across our western zones by late morning. There remains differences in the models with the amount of precipitation if any that will fall in our CWA. Very cold air aloft will be moving over our CWA while surface temperatures drop and drier air moves into our CWA in the wake of the cold front. The cold front is expected to push southeast of our CWA by evening and the precipitation is expected to remain generally along and north of the Natchez Trace. There will be a brief period early Saturday evening in our northeast where the light rain may mix with light snow before tapering off but no accumulations are expected. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the front during the day Saturday and continue Saturday night with morning lows back below freezing areawide Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected to continue through Tuesday night. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Saturday night through Monday night but temperatures will warm back above normal Tuesday and continue above normal through Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system that will bring a chance of rain by Wednesday afternoon. /22/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions should prevail through the period at all TAF sites, however some brief reductions in visibility from smoke or haze cannot be ruled out due to some fires burning in the region. Light southwesterly winds before 12Z Friday will increase to around 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts by 15Z Friday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 39 73 42 59 / 0 0 0 11 Meridian 38 73 43 62 / 0 0 0 6 Vicksburg 39 74 43 57 / 0 0 0 17 Hattiesburg 37 72 41 68 / 0 0 0 5 Natchez 39 73 42 60 / 0 0 0 11 Greenville 40 73 42 50 / 0 0 0 19 Greenwood 40 73 43 52 / 0 0 0 17 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/22/LP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
942 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Overall, the forecast remains on track this evening with the axis of warm advective precipitation approaching the area from the northwest. Did nudge down the total QPF thanks to lingering dry air in the lower levels out ahead of it which has kept the area of precipitation a bit more splotchy. Evening 00Z model guidance has also depicted a shorter window for the burst of snow before things transition fully to rain, which could act to limit our accumulations. Am hesitant to make big changes to the timing of the full change over to rain since wet bulbing could help keep temps down a bit longer. Thus, the forecast snowfall amounts were nudged down mainly due to the lowering of QPF. We are still expecting a quick burst of snow during the 12am-3am timeframe with associated visibility reductions and slushy accumulations up to 0.5" and locally to 1". Temperatures will also be on the increase through the remainder of the overnight hours as strong warm advection continues with southwest winds gusting to 30-35mph. This will in turn begin melting any snow that does accumulate and help limit impacts during the Friday morning commute. There may still be patchy slick spots out there though, especially on untreated roadways. No changes were made for the daylight hours Friday with a period of drizzle/light rain possible in the morning with snow showers developing behind the cold front late afternoon into the evening. Petr && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Through Friday night... The primary concerns for the short term forecast are: * High confidence in a 2-3 hour period of wet snow between 10 PM and 3 AM tonight, with an inch plus of quick accumulation in parts of northern Illinois; impacts expected to diminish quickly into daybreak with rising temperatures * Mild to start Friday with areas of drizzle and spotty rain showers through early afternoon Friday, then scattered snow showers developing mid to late afternoon into evening, which could briefly but sharply reduce visibility and lead to spotty light accumulation The digging, closed upper low of interest for tonight is moving into northern Minnesota as of this afternoon. It`s warm advection wing extends to its south and has consistently been producing a fairly narrow corridor of snow throughout today as it shifts east- southeast. Little will change with the character of this wave as it progresses into the central Great Lakes, so expecting this snow to translate over the area. The strongest forcing for ascent under the left exit region of the digging upper jet, as well as the most robust saturated isentropic ascent, are focused north of I-80. While it will snow south, the best chance for 1+ inch accumulations is north, including Chicago. Snowfall rates look to be stout within this, aided by instability aloft as shown by 850-600 mb lapse rates of 7.5 C/km on forecast soundings. Observed radar reflectivity and visibility upstream confirm this, with several Upper Midwest sites having dropped below 1 SM in the snow, and even a few 1/4SM observations. Finally, this snow will occur concurrently with gusty southwest winds, induced by 9 mb/6 hr pressure falls over the area by midnight. This will further assist in briefly but sharply reducing visibility. The duration and the timing of occurrence of this both help to limit the degree of impacts. With the snow likely having ended or transitioned to drizzle/light rain by 3 AM or shortly after, along with temperatures and dew points rising above freezing, roads are much more favored to be lightly slush covered than icy. That also may be more secondary roads than primary ones given a few hours between end of snow and the commute time, allowing snow removal operations to get ahead of things. If this was four hours earlier or later, an impact-based Winter Weather Advisory would be strongly considered. But with the timing, will message it into this evening, and have issued an SPS. The forecast area will remain under cyclonic flow into Friday, with another short wave digging and phasing into the main wave, causing a further deepening of the system as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes. The warm sector will prevail over the area during the morning into early afternoon, with temperatures likely to peak at 40 in many places. Morning pockets of drizzle, especially early, and spotty light rain showers are expected. These showers may be persist for a few hours along/east of I-57, where the upper jet forcing looks to linger longer. During the afternoon as the next wave digs in, the cold front will sweep into the forecast area. Low-level lapse rates will steepen markedly within the cold air advection regime, and some shallow CAPE (mainly less than 30 J/kg) is forecast to develop on the RAP and HRRR. Convection allowing models (CAMs) do indicate scattered convective echoes gradually developing during the latter half of the afternoon along/near the cold front. Conceptually this makes sense with the mid-level vorticity maximum also overhead. With thermal profiles quickly cooling, there would be an increasing propensity for some of these showers to be snow showers. While temperatures will be above freezing at the surface, the convective nature of such showers could result in brief quick accumulation of a few tenths under these showers, as well as sharply reduced visibility. Confidence is not that high yet on what coverage of these will be, and if it will align just right thermally for snow showers given how mild it will start on Friday. Confidence is high though in northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph behind the front. The incoming cold air will send wind chills down to the single digits above zero by late Friday evening, and to below zero by daybreak Saturday. In addition, lake effect snow showers should develop into northwest Indiana, especially Porter County, by overnight Friday night. These are likely to be of a mainly disorganized nature, but still be able to produce accumulation of up an inch or so by daybreak Saturday. MTF && .LONG TERM... Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Saturday through Thursday... Lake effect snow may linger across Porter County in northwest IN on Saturday morning. A quick moving area of high pressure will move south of the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, allowing winds to turn more westerly during the day, which should push any remaining lake effect snow east of the area by Saturday afternoon. Saturday looking rather chilly with highs likely struggling to reach the lower 20s. A fast moving clipper system will move across the area Sunday morning and the current track of this system may bring most of the snow southwest of the area, where a narrow band of perhaps up to an inch of snow is possible. Given the current track, opted to only include low chance pops for Sunday morning, but this time period will need to be monitored with higher pops possible, especially across the southern cwa. As this system departs Sunday afternoon, there is another potential for lake effect snow showers Sunday afternoon, possibly lingering into Sunday evening across northwest IN. Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with moderating temps and then a storm system looks to affect the region during the middle of next week. Still several days away and too early for specifics. But the current consensus track would bring accumulating snow near the northern cwa with a possible mix in part of the area, on the back side. Prior to any winter precip, there will be the potential for rain and perhaps a period of moderate to heavy rain as precipitable water values are into the one inch range by Wednesday night. Made no changes to the blended forecast and the only change from those was to lower pops on Wednesday, which seems in line with the 12z guidance showing any precipitation on Wednesday looking rather light. Strong winds are likely during this period as well and if they are southerly, this may allow dewpoints to reach well into the 40s, which would quickly melt the existing snowpack across the southern two thirds of the area. That combined with any heavy rain would increase the risk of flooding, especially localized ice jam flooding on rivers if there were quick rises. cms && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Aviation Forecast Concerns: * Strong southwest winds developing with gusts around 30 kt overnight. LLWS conditions as well, with WSW winds to 55 kts at 2000` AGL overnight. * Short period of snow between 05-09Z with IFR visibilities likely before changing to drizzle which lingers with MVFR ceilings into Friday morning. * Cold front pushes across the area Friday afternoon, winds shifting west with gusting AOA 30 kts again along with a period of convective snow showers into Friday evening. Sub-1000 mb low pressure along the MN/MT border will move southeast across the northern Great Lakes through the forecast period. Strong southwesterly low level flow will develop across the terminals this evening in response to strong pressure falls associated with the low. Surface winds may gust near 30 kts during the late evening/early overnight hours, with LLWS conditions as well with winds at around 2000` AGL increasing to around 55 kts. Within the strong flow and associated warm advection, a band of snow will spread across the area during the late evening, persisting a few hours with IFR visibilities and some quick accumulations possible. Strong warm advection will eventually change precipitation over to rain, and will quickly diminish to drizzle which will linger into Friday morning along with MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings may scatter for a time during the day Friday, though confidence in this is low at this time. As the low tracks east on Friday, its trailing cold front will push east across the terminals during the afternoon. This will produce a wind shift to the west, along with a renewed increase in wind speeds/gusts to around 30 kt again later in the day. Scattered convective snow showers and MVFR ceilings also appear likely, especially toward 00Z as the column cools and low level lapse rates steepen. Ratzer && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 With the approach of a strong disturbance, southwest winds will sharply increase this evening peaking during the overnight. Gales remain likely on the Illinois nearshore and cannot rule out a few even near 40 kt. This will be concurrent to a 2-3 period of heavier snow, so visibility will drop sharply in the nearshore. For the Indiana nearshore, some overnight gale force gusts may occur a few miles offshore. On Friday late afternoon, a strong cold front will move across southern Lake Michigan. The northwest winds behind this will gust to 30 kt and a few gale force gusts are possible late the day into Friday evening for both the Illinois and Indiana nearshores. Waves along the Indiana nearshore (which is now more largely ice free) will build up to 10 ft and occasionally higher. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Gale Warning...IL nearshore waters until 6 AM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 3 PM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
746 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 344 PM EST THU FEB 10 2022 Lake effect snow showers have tapered off across the northwest wind snow belts over the last few hours. And, there has been some clearing across the southern portions of Upper Michigan. But, that will quickly fill in as focus turns to the next Clipper system this evening. HRRR/RAP analysis this afternoon is trending toward light snow entering the far western counties over the next few hours, which correlates well with the current radar mosaic. By 00Z, snow chances will spread into central portions of the UP with categorical Pops over the western counties. In addition, southerly winds will ramp up this evening with sustained speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range, gusting to 30 mph. Currently, temperatures across the forecast area are generally in the low to mid 20s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 324 PM EST THU FEB 10 2022 Tonight, a clipper system with a strong mid-level fgen band out ahead of it will dive southeastward through the Boundary Waters and across Lake Superior. Models show a few hours of strong isentropic lift on the 285 K surface (around 700-800 mb) this evening. Most areas should see around 0.15-0.25" of QPF with SLRs around 15:1 leading to 2-4" of snow. One exception will be right along the Lake Superior shoreline where strong southerly downslope winds will eat away at some of precip, keeping them right around 2" or just under. The other exception will be in Schoolcraft County, particularly in and around Manistique, where southerly flow enhanced by Lake Michigan moisture/instability will boost QPF to nearly 0.5" per the LPMM of the SPC HREF QPF. Therefore, could see snow totals flirt with warning criteria down there, especially if the 12z HRRR (which was a significant wet outlier) verified. However, the plan right now is to maintain the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory, with a possible upgrade to warning not off the table. Tomorrow, as colder air rushes in behind the system, northerly flow lake effect snow will expand across the north wind snow belts through the morning and afternoon. There could be a short window for upslope-driven freezing drizzle before colder air returns, but because any possible FZDZ would be falling on top of a few inches of fresh snow, it is not expected to be impactful. Once the cold air arrives, strong northerly/upslope flow along with hefty lake-based instability (sfc-850 mb delta T`s around 20 C) and several hours of deep moisture should lead to a period of moderate to heavy upslope/lake effect snow in the afternoon and evening, mostly clinging to the higher terrain. Also of note is that based on the model sfc T fields, it appears most if not all CAMs are overdoing the coverage of ice on Lake Superior east of the Keweenaw Peninsula, which likely translates to an underestimate in moisture and sensible heat flux and thus could argue for going even higher on QPF. WPC QPF was already near or above the 75th percentile of guidance in the north wind lake effect belts, so did not add much or anything at all to it, but will note that a further upward adjustment is possible. Additional snow amounts from lake effect/upslope snow (from 12z Fri to 12z Sat) should end up in the 4-8" range in the north wind snow belts, with a few localized amounts up to 10" possible. Blowing snow will also be a concern with the strong north wind, as will reduced visibility as the column cools so much that dendritic growth ends and flake sizes become much smaller. Therefore, have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to cover the entire CWA. Amounts will be marginal for reaching advisory criteria in Iron, Dickinson, and Menominee Counties where there will be little if any lake effect snow, but the intensity of the snow tonight along the blowing snow tomorrow justifies it. Lake effect showers will last into Saturday morning, although lesser coverage than Friday night and evening. These northerly wind snowbelt showers warranted changes from the National Blend through the weekend with a more scattered nature likely. A clipper passing mainly west of the U.P. Saturday night will shift winds back to northerly. Those northerly winds, cold and semi-moist low levels could create another round of northerly wind snowbelt LES showers into Sunday. While some scattered LES showers are possible Saturday night, much of the region remains on track to experience some well sub zero low temperatures. Interior west parts of the U.P. and other higher terrain basins remain on track for lows down to fifteen below, and more towards zero closer to the shorelines. Temperatures slowly warm into the start of next week as two more progressive shortwaves could pass over the area from current progs. Ensemble guidance supports the west-northwesterly wind snowbelt lake effect showers in the wake of the Monday shortwave with some manual PoP adjustments made away from the NBM guidance. These would keep the northwesterly mid-level flow across the region for the most part. There are early indications of stronger southerly flow by mid- next week leading to a potential warm-up again. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 701 PM EST THU FEB 10 2022 Snow has already moved into the western U.P. early this evening in advance of the approaching Clipper system over northern MN. Conditions have already lowered to IFR at IWD in snow and expect the same to occur at CMX between 01-02Zz and at SAW btwn 02-03Z. Look for improvement to MVFR conditions at IWD and SAW mainly after 09Z tonight as snow tapers off from west to east as the surface low moves over the area. Cold air pushing in Friday in the wake of the system will generate north winds lake effect snow bands. The snow bands and blowing snow caused by gusty north winds to 30 knots or higher will lower categories down to IFR or LIFR beginning late Friday morning at IWD and CMX and by early Fri afternoon at SAW. The best chance for sustained LIFR conditions will be at IWD and CMX. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 324 PM EST THU FEB 10 2022 Southerly gales tonight to 35 knots across the central part of Lake Superior. Winds shift northerly Friday morning. The strongest winds from Friday afternoon through night will see some storm force gusts to 50 knots across the central part of the lake and strong gales to 45 knots elsewhere. Freezing spray will continue to come into play tonight, and again Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Northerly winds decrease Saturday then shift to southwesterly Sunday. Northwesterly winds around 20 knots are possible again by Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for MIZ001>007-009-084-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday for MIZ010>014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>251-264>267. Gale Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-240>242-263. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 4 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...RC/NLY AVIATION...Voss MARINE...NLY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
832 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 .UPDATE... Updated forecast to issue a dens fog advisory for most of the Snake Plain into the Teton Valley through 10 am Friday. Most models show visibilities tanking throughout the night in these areas as winds weaken and gradually turn downvalley. Expect to see a rapid expansion and lowering of the low stratus area that is present this evening across the upper Snake Plain. Visibilities less than 1 mile and lower than 1/4 mile are likely at times tonight. Models are a little uncertain if the stratus/fog will make it to I-84 or not, but thinking is that with the downvalley winds that they will make it although it could be late in the night. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. Satellite imagery shows weak upper shortwave passing through East Idaho, leaving behind low stratus/fog across many low elevation areas. Surface based inversions look to remain well entrenched across the region, with some 20-30 degree difference between valley locations and some higher elevation observations in the central mountains. Expect these conditions to continue under influence of high pressure through the short term and into the weekend. DMH LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. It appears the deterministic models are backing off on timing of the onset of precipitation Monday until later in the day. We continue to see a split flow developing with a cutoff low headed into southern California. This is a bit further west than previous runs have been showing, and explains the slower timing of onset of precip. Ensemble clusters show varying trough split scenarios, with about a quarter of the ensemble members clustering around the cutoff in southern CA. The majority of the members favor a cutoff over NV/UT Tuesday. The result on the forecast is that we`re looking a little drier for the Mon-Wed period. With a split flow, models maintain most of the moisture in the vicinity of the cutoff low. Otherwise, temperatures should be approaching climate normals in the long term periods. A northwest flow pattern resumes as the upper trough exits to the east Wednesday or Wednesday night. Hinsberger AVIATION...A dry northwesterly flow prevails over the region. This bodes well for KSUN, which is expected to remain VFR through the period. There is a lot of uncertainty for the other terminals though. Current satellite imagery shows some upper level clouds obscuring the fog/stratus layer, so it`s hard to determine the extent of it. HRRR and HREF are suggesting widespread fog/stratus with HREF spreading LIFR conditions all through the Snake Plain. Guidance has generally been overdoing the fog this week, but if mid and upper level clouds clear, it may indeed drop to LIFR. Again, uncertainty is high with respect to the flight categories, and I anticipate we`ll cig/vis fluctuating through the period. Hinsberger && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Friday for IDZ051>055-065-068. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
645 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Have updated the forecast to bump up snow totals across the Pikes Peak region and eastern mtns/I-25 corridor from late tomorrow and tomorrow night. For some reason, the HRRR looks UNDERdone wrt snowfall amounts and have leaned more to a blend of NBM with a heavier weight to the NAMnest and 90% NBM qpf (with a bit of human massaging). Overall accums went up an inch or two especially in the normally snowier areas. Also, I believe our temps up in the Pikes Peak region were to warm tomorrow afternoon and have bumped these down. /Hodanish && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 High level cloudiness was spreading over the area this afternoon ahead of nrn Rockies short wave, while temperatures have responded to increased mixing and warmer mid-levels, with readings as warm as 60f in a few spots across the plains. Tonight, should see slightly milder min temps at many locations as breezy downslope winds persist and occasional bouts of mid/high level cloudiness move through. Some mixed messages on fog potential in the San Luis Valley overnight among various short range models, though suspect enough cloud cover will be overhead to keep any fog rather patchy and short-lived. On Friday, cold front comes through the plains in the morning, bringing gusty north winds and cooler temperatures to most locations along and east of the mountains. Clouds will thicken and lower during the afternoon as low level flow takes on an easterly component, though models aren`t particularly enthused about precip chances prior to 00z, as upward motion associated with the upper trough will be slow to arrive. As a result, trimmed back srn extent of snowfall Fri afternoon, and delayed the onset or precipitation by just a couple hrs. Best bet for snow during the daytime hrs will be over the central mountains and the Pikes Peak/Palmer Divide, where at least some light snow will develop after 3 pm. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 Key Messages: 1) Light snow likely along the eastern mountains Friday night. 2) Another storm system will possibly impact the southern Colorado region mid week next week, bringing increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. Friday Night... During the overnight hours, a short wave trough will be pushing southward across the eastern part of Colorado. As this feature quickly pushes southward, synoptic support will increase across the region, which will aid in the development of light stratiform precipitation. Winds aloft will also increase, and orographics will become stronger, especially over the eastern mountains. Surface winds behind a cold front will be mostly northerly, though immediately along west of the I25 corridor winds will have an easterly component, and weak surface upsloping will materialize. With this, light snow is expected to develop/continue along the eastern mountains overnight. Pockets of light snow are possible across the eastern plains as well given the synoptic support moving across the area. The eastern mountains will see the most snow, with snow totals 1-1.5 inches. As for the eastern plains, snow totals will likely be less than 1 inch. As this feature exits the region by Saturday morning though, precipitation will decrease from north to south. Elsewhere across the forecast area though, precipitation chances will remain low. Saturday - Tuesday... The majority of the long term period will stay quiet weather wise. The GEFS and EPS ensemble models are in strong agreement that a ridge of high pressure will develop over the western US and expand over Colorado. The strong agreement between the models leads to greater confidence in the overall forecast. Given the ridge, synoptic descent will overspread southern Colorado, and will allow for a stretch of quiet days. Precipitation chances will remain low for the forecast area, with precipitation chances less than 10%. Temperatures will also begin a warming trend, with Saturday near to slightly above average, and then Sunday through Tuesday above average for all of southern Colorado. Temperatures will likely warm to 10-15F above average for this time of year. Wednesday - Thursday... Near the end of the long term period, a pattern shift appears likely, bringing more active weather to southern Colorado. The ensemble models remain in agreement that a large troughing pattern will materialize mid week next week. The models are slightly slower and further south than yesterday, but still in agreement with a system digging southward over the region. Trends with this system will need to be monitored closely, as the ultimate evolution of the system will mean different outcomes for the area. Trends with a more northerly track, slower system, and/or more closed system would favor greater precipitation chances. Trends that would be less favorable for precipitation chances would be a more southerly track, faster system, and more open system. With all that said though, the main point at this time is that this type of pattern will bring increased precipitation chances to the forecast area, especially for the mountains. Temperatures will also be expected to drop across the region, to near and possibly below average values. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 325 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Low risk of some stratus/fog early Fri morning at KALS, though will only include a sct001 group for now, as increasing high cloudiness, t/td spreads around 3-5f and weak west wind toward 12z argue against widespread low cloudiness/reduced visibility. Cold front moves through KCOS and KPUB Friday morning, with north wind gusting 20-25 kts at both sites after 12z-14z. VFR cigs will lower at KCOS after 18z Fri, with a low risk of a vcsh after 22z. Better chance for snow and a brief period of IFR cigs/vis at KCOS will likely come after 00z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...PETERSEN