Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/10/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 600 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

REST OF THE AFTERNOON: Upper level shortwave trough, sfc cold front
sinking southward across the forecast area this afternoon, likely
exiting near 00z. With decent low level lapse rates (and some
instability indicated via RAP bufkit soundings), should see some
continued showers along/ahead of front. Mostly snow, but enough
warming in south where some rain isn`t out of the question.

THU/FRI STORM SYSTEM: Still shaping up as a fairly messy system with
a lot of moving parts that will have impacts on pcpn types, amounts
and related impacts.

FORCERS: models remain in good agreement with dropping an upper
level shortwave trough out of Canada and across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley by 12z Fri, slipping east/southeast by 00z.
Associated sfc low progged to swing across the MN arrowhead thu
night, with a warm front running due south of it. System`s cold from
lags to the west, and should take a west-east orientation as it
drops through Fri morning. The deeper, stronger QG convergence
continues to lie to the north, focused on Thu evening. Strong slug
of low level thermodynamics ahead of the shortwave, along warm
front, evidenced via 850 mb temp advection and upglide on the
280:295K sfcs, also focused in the 00-06z Fri time frame. Higher a
loft, still some signal that the left exit region of a 300 mb jet
streak will enhance the lift Thu night.

SATURATION: despite swing to a southerly fetch by Thu afternoon, not
expecting much/if any tap into southerly moisture. Rather, system
looks to bring its own saturation with it. In addition, models
continue to suggest some push of 850 mb moisture transport, mostly
westerly and impinging on the north-south running warm front as it
tracks across the region. Of more concern is the erosion of the
mid/upper cloud layer with dry mid level punch post the warm front.
Bufkit soundings and west-east running x-sections show this, and its
been a persistent signal in the models. This would result in a loss
of ice and a swing to liquid for pcpn types. Mostly lower saturation
with the cold front Fri morning.

TEMPS: surge of low level warming Thu night as warm front moves
through. Temps are expected to rise through the night, with Thu
highs likely at midnight. Conversely, many locations will have their
Friday highs early that morning as cold air them pushes in from the
north starting Fri morning. Fri lows will follow a similar non-
diurnal pattern, occurring by midnight Fri.

PCPN TYPES/AMOUNTS: depth of saturation and temp profile favors snow
with the brunt of the thermodynamic lift. Much of the associated QPF
is also associated with this lift (thu evening). Loss of ice
overnight with decreasing depth of saturation makes liquid much more
likely. Sfc temps will be climbing though, so there will be
drizzle/freezing drizzle (or rain) possibilities. As we move into
the mid morning hours Fri, colder air with cold front along with
steeper lapse rates makes ice in the cloud and snow more likely. QPF
will be fairly minimal during the higher freezing potential, so if
it is realized, how impactful (and widespread) is uncertain.

For snow, still looking at about 1 to 3" north of I-94, dropping off
south/west of there. Most of that will fall Thu night. The threat
for freezing pcpn still there as the main snow band exits, but will
have limitations with sfc temps warming and  lower qpf. However, if
cloud depth shallows sooner and/or warming doesn`t occur as quickly,
the threat for freezing pcpn impacts would increase. Keep an eye on
it. As it stands, might need a winter wx adv for counties north of I-
94 Thu night.

WINDS: winds will be on the increase from the southern later Thu
afternoon, swinging westward with warm front passage that night. A
few hours of stronger gusts expected, moreso from late afternoon
into early evening. Relative decrease in speeds overnight will see a
upward tick as low departs and gradient tightens (again) for Fri.
Not wind advisory strong, but will add some bite to the air. With
the relatively mild conditions adding some moisture to the existing
snow pack, and relatively low snow ratios expected, blowing and
drifting snow not expected to be an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

Little in the way of a pattern shift into early next week as mean
upper ridge remains anchored over western CONUS. Then after that
some signs that significant short wave trough could dive through
pattern before it re-establishes itself in typical la nina fashion.

Saturday and Saturday night will be that colder, quiet period
between waves with basically nil weather.

By Sunday, a much sharper short wave trough is shown by the medium
range guidance to drop through the area. Stronger forcing signals
appear to slide by just to our west and southwest, but this is many
days out yet. Ensembles suggest possibility of some light
accumulations but blended QPF and precipitation chance remains
rather lean. For now left idea of flurries in for Sunday but would
not be surprised if precipitation threat increases and some light
accumulations materialize.

First half of next week is looking rather pleasant with some shift
in pattern and ridging. Temperatures will moderate nicely to
seasonal or slightly above normal values. But evolution of overall
pattern will be watched closely with signal of wave dropping into
southwest U.S. and then ejecting into central CONUS with elongated
baroclinic zone and threat for much higher precipitation regime.
Southern forecast areas at higher risk for impact that far out, but
there is a chance this could all remain south as well like what
happened the last few weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

MVFR/patchy VFR ceilings with light snow or a drizzle/snow mix
pushing east early this evening. MVFR ceilings should fill back
in again with the low level moisture and continued cyclonic flow.
Ridging builds in later Thursday morning and should see a break
with VFR conditions before the deteriorating conditions re-develop
with a wintry mix developing at the end of the TAF period. Brisk
northwest winds 15 to 20kts with gusts 20 to 30kts decreasing to
10 to 15kts by midnight with some stronger gusts at KRST.
Thursday...surface winds turn to the west and southwest and
eventually the south. Low level wind shear looks to develop toward
23Z at RST with strengthening south winds.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM...Shea
AVIATION...Zapotocny



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

 633 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

Updated this evening`s forecast to increase POP for most areas
along and east of the mountains. Quick moving upper level
disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft will dig south
across the plains into tonight. Bands of light snow/rain are
quickly moving south along the I-80 corridor. Not really expecting
much with this activity with maybe a dusting of snow possible, but
visibility may be reduced to 1 mile at times in the more moderate
bands. Otherwise, current forecast with the potential for strong
winds looks on track for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

A chance of snow showers and flurries is possible tonight across
portions of the Nebraska panhandle and southeast Wyoming. Hi-Res
guidance including the HRRR and NAM Nest bring in some showery
precip late this afternoon and into the first part of the overnight.
No accumulation is expected in the lower elevations. The mountains
may pick up an inch or two.

Inherited a High Wind Watch for the wind prone areas from the
midnight crew that goes into affect early Thursday morning. Decided
to upgrade these to High Wind Warnings. Pressure gradients along and
west of the Laramie Range steepen through the morning hours on
Thursday. 850 and 700 mb height gradients also remain fairly steep
during the day Thursday. Downward omegas over ARL and the Laramie
Range are strong enough to warrant mixing of strong winds down to
the surface. GFS 700 mb winds have weakened considerably compared to
some of the model runs yesterday. However, it still looks pretty
good for the wind prone areas hitting criteria. Still have concern
regarding the south Laramie Range foothills and central Laramie
County Thursday night. 750 mb winds are ~55 kts over these areas
with good subsidence. GFS also displays somewhat of a weak mountain
wave signature. This posed enough of a concern to issue a High Wind
Warning for these areas as well. Aside form the wind, well-above
average temperatures are expected Thursday. Downslope winds combined
with 700 mb temperatures hovering around 0C should help temperatures
moderate to 10 to 20 degrees above average for areas east of the
Laramie Range.

Friday morning, a cold front and associated clipper system drop down
from the north, cooling high temperatures off by about 10 degrees.
This should also put an end to the high winds in the wind prone
areas. However, wind still is the main issue on Friday, with the
potential for the Nebraska panhandle to see strong winds. The GFS is
hinting at a Bora like event with strong northerly winds 35 to
almost 45 kts at 850 mb. Will be keeping an eye on this to see if
winds continue to strengthen. Besides the wind, there is the
potential for some scattered snow showers on Friday. Once again
little accumulation is expected for the lower elevations, while the
mountains may pick up an inch or two.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

Upper shortwave with a clipper system clears the CWA early
Saturday morning...ending any lingering snow showers over the area
from north to south. Northwest flow remains over eastern Wyoming
and Nebraska Panhandle through the weekend with no appreciable
shortwaves moving through this northwest flow. Will need to keep
an eye on this...but for now...have dry conditions in the
forecast.

Next chance for snow Tuesday evening as a low pressure system
moves into the 4 corners area. Will need to watch the progression
of this low into Wednesday. Good position for a Colorado low to
develop. For now...looks like the heavier snow remains south of
the Cheyenne CWA area...but that could change as we get closer to
the event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 401 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

Gusty winds associated with a weak frontal passage continue across
southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Some light rain
showers are also moving across the Nebraska panhandle currently,
they will transition to light snow showers behind the frontal
passage in the next hour or so, likely only at KCDR. MVFR to IFR
conditions are possible in the Nebraska panhandle behind the
front as well due to low stratus, that will persist until around
10Z. Winds pick up Thursday afternoon across all of southeast
Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle where multiple High Wind
Warnings are in effect for likely wind gusts greater than 50
knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

A weather disturbance will move across the region this afternoon and
evening, accompanied by light rain and snow. It will be breezy to windy
through Friday, with strong winds possible for the wind prone areas
late tonight through late Thursday night. Milder temperatures are
expected Thursday ahead of a cold front and weather disturbance, which
will move through Friday. Fire weather concerns will be low with minimum
relative humidities above 30 percent.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
     WYZ106-110-116.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
     WYZ117-118.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...LK
FIRE WEATHER...MJ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 332 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

At the start of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows
the CWA having a northwesterly flow aloft being under the back
part of the base of an upper air trough. Satellite imagery shows
some high clouds currently moving into Yuma county as well as the
NE counties from the northwest along with the snow pack still
being present in the CWA from northern Kit Carson county
southeast down into northern Scott county. Going into the
evening, models show a shortwave disturbance moving through upper
air flow in the trough over the CWA which looks to bring chances
for light rain with some light snow mixed in as temperatures get
cooler. Better chances for this precipitation appear in the
eastern portions of the CWA, but little accumulation is expected
with chances for the precipitation tapering off after midnight.
Overnight lows on Wednesday expect to be in the lower to upper
20s range.

On Thursday, models show the CWA with a north-northeasterly flow in
the morning that turns north-northwesterly by the evening as the
back part of the trough reforms into the base of a new trough
through the day courtesy of an upper air low over the Hudson Bay
area. At the surface, dry conditions are expected throughout the day
with slightly warmer temperatures possible while a surface trough
passes through the CWA by the evening. Daytime highs look to be in
the middle 50s to the lower 60s followed by overnight lows in the
upper 20s to middle 30s range.

For Friday, models show the flow over the CWA being northwesterly in
the morning and becoming west-northwesterly by the late afternoon
and evening as the base of the trough moves over the CWA. At the
surface, a cold front associated with a surface low over the Great
Lakes region is expected to move across the CWA beginning in the
morning. With this frontal passage, windy conditions are expected
during the day as current model forecast soundings showing suggest
the possibly of wind gusts around 30 to 35 kts during the
afternoon. The NBM 90th percentile was used for winds here though
this could still be a bit low particularly in the northern
portions as neighboring WFOs have seen downward momentum transfer
values in their soundings that may support stronger winds. Not
enough confidence to boost these up just yet, but still remains
possible. Areas along and west of the CO border may see a slight
chance for precipitation on Friday afternoon and evening
associated with a shortwave disturbance aloft. Not the greatest
confidence for this precipitation at the moment as some models
suggest coverage staying just west of the CWA. Currently, little
accumulation is anticipated should this precipitation occur.
Cooler daytime highs on Friday in the middle 40s to the lower 50s
are expected behind the front with lows seen overnight drop to the
middle to upper teens. Single digit wind chills are possible for
areas along and west of the CO border.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

For the extended period, the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both
show upper level ridging over the western portion of the country to
start off the upcoming weekend, shifting east into the Plains region
by Monday into Tuesday. From there, the models do differ with the
upcoming midweek system. They start by bringing a closed upper low
in the desert southwest, from there, the GFS does bring it thru the
Plains as a open wave late Tuesday into Wed/Wed night. The ECMWF
keeps this system as a closed/elongated low as it works towards the
southern Plains.

At the surface, dry conditions are expected this weekend into next
Tuesday before the approach of the next system Tuesday night into
Wed/Wed night. The dry weather will bring about elevated fire wx
concerns for portions of the area Sunday thru Tuesday. Based on
criteria, the areas most at risk right now are Highway 27 and west
on Sunday, then areas south of I-70 and along/west of Highway 27 for
Mon/Tue. Winds close to criteria and rh dropping into the upper
teens.

For the upcoming system midweek, the GFS seems the outlier with the
surface front/low too far ahead of the upper support, and the ECMWF
seems plausible at this time. With the low south, warmer air will
wrap into the area from the east. This will allow a transition from
light snow to light rain from east to west. Overall qpf is low
around 0.10" or less, so looking for a few tenths of an inch snow
accum before going to light rain.

For temps, slightly colder air in place to start off the upcoming
weekend. Daytime highs on Saturday will range in the 40s. By Sunday
and next Monday, warmer in the 50s. Going into Tuesday, mid 50s west
to the mid 60s east. Colder air will wrap in around the expected low
pressure system for midweek, resulting in a downtrend for highs.
Will be looking for highs to range in the mid 30s west to the mid
40s east.

Overnight lows during the upcoming weekend will range in the 20s. On
Monday night, mid 20s to the lower 30s warmest east. By Tuesday
night, upper teens to the mid 20s are expected. The passage of the
low pressure system midweek will bring decent caa carrying into the
evening hours Wednesday night with lows in the lower to mid teens
expected.

Wind chill readings during the overnight periods will range mainly
in the teens over the weekend, 20s for Monday night then lower on
Tuesday night with a range from the upper single numbers above zero
west, to the upper teens east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 329 PM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

KGLD looks to begin the 00Z TAF period under VFR restrictions with
a broken cloud ceiling at 7 kft and westerly winds around 7 kts
that look to turn northerly by 03Z. At 08Z, KGLD winds turn
northwesterly with near-MVFR conditions as the cloud deck drops to
around 4 kft. By 11Z, westerly winds return to at KGLD with VFR
conditions seen with the clouds rising to around 25 kft. At 18Z,
KGLD winds look to increase to 14G22 kts for the remainder of the
period.

KMCK starts the 00Z TAF period with VFR conditions as well with
seeing north-westerly winds around 8 kts and a broken cloud
ceiling at 9 kft. Vicinity showers look to begin around 02Z at
KMCK before ending at 05Z with overcast clouds dropping to 5 kft.
At 09Z, KMCK winds turn northwesterly before turning westerly by
13Z. At 19Z, winds at KMCK expect to speed up to 16G24 kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...076



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

 1050 PM EST Wed Feb 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the region Thursday bringing scattered
rain and snow showers. Southwesterly flow develops Friday into
Saturday, continuing the mild period of weather for New England.
A cold front brings a few snow showers Saturday night and
colder temperatures for Sunday. Low pressure likely passes to
our east and out to sea Sunday night and early Monday, but may
bring snow to the coastline. Dry and cold weather will follow
on Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM Update... Just a few more small tweaks to temperature
and PoP trends through tonight.

715 PM Update... Made some very minor tweaks to overnight
temperature trends to better match the relative warmth we`re
experiencing now as clouds continue to increase in coverage.
Also made some adjustments to PoP to bring in hires trends in
guidance for timing.

Previously...
Light onshore winds will diminish after sunset along the
coastline with relatively light winds continuing across the
interior as well. Temperatures will fall quickly this evening
under clear skies.

A weak prefrontal trough will cross the region late tonight. The
latest HREF does have some low level moisture advecting into the
region with the most cloud cover over northern portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
715 Update... Did a pass of PoP and wind updates for tomorrow,
using primarily the HRRR for the latter. Thus gusts are a little
stronger tomorrow with and behind the crossing front, to 20-25
mph with steepening low-level lapse rates.

Previously...
Cold air advection will develop on Thursday as a weak trough
crosses the region. Temperatures will be on the rebound during
this period. GYX probability plots suggest there will be mainly
rain showers across southern portions of the forecast area with
snow showers in the north. Some light accumulations of snow are
possible, mainly across the higher, northern terrain.

Snow squall parameters do increase during the afternoon. This
will be mainly focused to the mountains beginning around 20Z.
This precipitation is also supported by the latest 3 KM Nam
solution.

Afternoon will reach the 40s outside the mountains with readings
in the 30s across the far north. Any scattered, light
precipitation will exit Maine and New Hampshire Thursday night
as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into New England from
the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview... The synoptic pattern of the extended forecast will be
driven by a longwave trough slowly moving east with several
shortwaves passing through, eventually giving way to ridging late
Tuesday.  These shortwaves will be reflected as low pressure passing
to our north Saturday with another system passing offshore to our
southeast Sunday evening through Monday.

Details... The extended period starts off with southwesterly flow
setting up as a low pressure system moves in from the east passing
to the north, keeping the CWA in the warm sector.  Warm air
advection will bring warmer temperatures through Saturday with highs
peaking in the 40`s approaching 50 Saturday.  Dewpoints will also be
climbing into the 30`s for most areas Saturday morning and this
combination could lead to significant warming of the snowpack and
melting.  With freeze-thaw diurnal cycles up through Saturday,
drains may be blocked by snow and ice and melt off could build up.
Scattered snow showers are possible mainly in northern and mountain
regions Saturday morning with light accumulations. Any snow showers
will transition to rain in the late morning.  A cold front will
sweep through Saturday afternoon bringing cold air back into the
area and clearing up precipitation in the north.

Another low pressure system approaches from the south Sunday into
Monday, traveling up the East Coast. This will be another
offshore system where the main impacts will be felt along the
coasts. Ensemble guidance is still showing support for light QPF
along the coasts with the Canadian showing the wettest
solutions of up to half an inch. Temperatures will remain below
freezing for this storm so all precip will likely fall as snow.
The question of how much snow will be largely driven by the
storm`s proximity to the coast. The largest contribution to
ensemble variability at this point is a large scale amplified
wave centered over the Gulf of Alaska. Cluster analysis has
been showing the CWA to be drier than the ensemble mean in the
first 2 clusters for the last several model runs. The main
trends have been that the storm is further offshore and weaker
than what the ensemble mean is showing for QPF. More certainty
in the storm track will develop as the event draws closer.

High pressure takes over for the rest of the extended period with
potential for low pressure to move in late next week.  Temperatures
will remain below freezing until warm air starts to move in mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions tonight with mainly clear skies and
just some high level moisture. Towards morning, MVFR conditions
will develop over western and northern portions of the forecast
area as a weak front passes over the region. MVFR conditions
expected along with scattered rain or snow showers. The
precipitation will exit the region Thursday night with VFR
conditions.

Long Term... A cold front passing Sat could bring snow showers
to the north and mountains bringing possible MVFR conditions
before returning to VFR. Another chance of significant
restrictions is possible in coastal locations Sunday evening
into Monday as a coastal low passes offshore with snow showers
along the coasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A southwesterly gradient increases over the waters
Thursday. This will allow for winds to gust above SCA thresholds
with seas building to 3 to 5 feet. SCAs will continue Thursday
night and will likely be extended for the rest of the work week
and into this weekend as a southwesterly gradient continues
over the waters.

Long Term... Marginal SCA conditions are possible Fri afternoon
through Sat night with wind gusts approaching 25-30 kts outside
the bays. SCA conditions diminish Sunday morning before
returning late Sunday into Monday as a stronger low pressure
system passes offshore.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Thunberg



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 849 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

Isolated rain or snow showers will be possible through this
evening as a cold front passes through central Illinois. Low
temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 20s. Cold and
dry weather will be on tap for Thursday with afternoon highs only
reaching the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

A cold front is advancing across Illinois this evening. A weak
mid-level shortwave accompanying the front is triggering very
light snow or sprinkles across central and NE Illinois. Gusty NW
winds are occuring along and behind the front, with speeds of 15
to 25 mph at times. Colder air will settle into Illinois the rest
of the night, with wind gusts eventually decreasing a bit toward
sunrise. Cloud cover will thicken and lower in the post-frontal
air mass. Mostly cloudy skies will linger through mid-day, then
begin clearing from west to east Thursday afternoon.

Low temps tonight will reach the low 20s in most areas, with mid
20s south of I-70. Wind chills will be in the single digits above
zero later tonight through the morning tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

20z/2pm surface analysis shows a 996mb low over Lake Superior with
a cold front extending southwestward into Iowa. Radar
imagery/surface obs indicate scattered snow showers in the
vicinity of the low, but little to no precip further south along
the front. CAMs continue to suggest a few rain showers developing
and spreading into north-central Illinois over the next couple of
hours, then persisting through the evening before gradually
dissipating/shifting into Indiana toward midnight. Given current
trends, think areal coverage will remain quite low, so will use
isolated wording in the forecast. Once the very light precip ends
and winds veer to the northwest, overnight lows will dip into the
lower to middle 20s. Despite high pressure building into the
region behind the front, ample upstream cloud cover will likely
keep conditions partly to mostly cloudy across much of central
Illinois on Thursday. Thanks to the cloud cover and northwesterly
flow, high temperatures will stay in the lower to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

The next in a series of fast-moving systems skirting across the
northern tier of states will push a warm front into central
Illinois Thursday night. The atmosphere will initially be cold
enough to support a brief period of snow: however, as conditions
warm, the snow will change to rain across the board before dawn
Friday. Any snow accumulation will be minimal and likely confined
to locations along/north of I-74. Temperatures will start off in
the upper 20s and lower 30s in the early evening, then will rise
into the middle to upper 30s by early Friday morning. A
showery/mild day will be observed on Friday with highs climbing
well into the 40s. Once the parent low tracks toward New England,
a trailing cold front will sink through the region late
Friday...setting up a cold/dry weekend. Resulting highs will drop
back into the 20s, with lows bottoming out in the single digits
and lower teens by Sunday morning.

After that, the persistent upper ridge centered along the West
Coast will break down...with ridging building eastward into the
Midwest/Great Lakes early next week. Models are in good agreement
that a deep trough will dig over the western CONUS, but disagree
as to how amplified the flow will become and how strong the
downstream ridge will build along/east of the Mississippi River.
The exact amplitude will determine when the next significant
chance for precipitation arrives by the middle/end of next week.
For now, will keep things dry through Tuesday followed by rain
chances returning by Wednesday. The main story in the extended
will be the pronounced warming trend that could see temps climbing
into the 50s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential MVFR ceilings
tonight into Thursday morning. Current satellite imagery shows
MVFR clouds advancing across Iowa into far NW Illinois as of 00z/6
pm. Winds are presently W/SW at 10-15kt, but will veer to W/NW
this evening as a cold front passes. An isolated shower will be
possible with FROPA, but areal coverage will remain limited and
therefore only warrants VCSH in the TAFs. Once the front exits and
W/NW winds develop, more widespread MVFR clouds will overspread
the terminals overnight. HRRR soundings continue to support
arrival of MVFR near PIA just after 06z, and expanding ESE each
hour after that, reaching KSPI by around 10z. Based on upstream
satellite trends, it appears SCT-BKN low clouds will remain in
place through at least 18z Thu, then clear out from west to east
Thur afternoon.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon