Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/07/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
910 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with
dry conditions through Monday along with moderating
temperatures. A coastal low will bring a chance of snow to
eastern Vermont Monday night into Tuesday, followed by more dry
weather and warmer temperatures for Wednesday. A series of
clippers will renew chances for snow showers Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 908 PM EST Sunday...You may notice some returns from the
KCXX and KTYX radars this evening but rest assured we aren`t
expecting any snow this evening. Model soundings off the HRRR
and RAP show a pronounced dry layer from the surface up to
around 800 mb. Any snow that tries to fall through this layer
will evaporate prior to making it to the ground so we are only
expecting virga through the evening hours. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track and we continue to watch for the
potential of minor icing in the Connecticut River Valley
tomorrow evening.
Previous Discussion...Surface high pressure continues to move
further east of the region overnight. A clipper type low
pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes region. In
between these two feature will be some brisk southerly flow,
especially along Lake Champlain where winds have been gusting to
30 kts. Some virga is evident on radar north of the
international border, but the precipitation is falling into very
dry air at the surface. Our region should remain dry overnight.
Will have clouds across our northern zones associated with this
aforementioned activity. Our southern zones will have some
clearing early, with clouds increasing through the night. This
will lead to temperatures more mild than last night, especially
aloft as temps will be warming at 925mb and 850 mb. Low
temperatures will range from the single digits above zero in the
Connecticut River valley to the teens to even low 20s in the
higher elevations.
Monday will be quite mild compared the the last several days as
weak clipper low over the Great Lakes along with an upper level
trough will push eastward while another developing low pressure
system off the Carolinas will begin to track northeastward.
Despite widespread cloud cover from the two systems, high
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30s. Our weather will
be dry on Monday across most of the region, exception will be
eastern Vermont where a chance for some light rain or snow is
mentioned due to a surface trough lifting moisture into New
England which is out ahead of another stronger coastal low still
off the Carolinas. Monday night will have continued chance for
light snow east of the Greens, along with mild temperatures as
extensive cloud cover remains in place. Lows will range from the
teens across Northern New York to the mid 20s in Vermont where
cloud cover is most extensive. Snow totals will be around an
inch or less, with the best chance in Eastern Windsor County and
Eastern Essex County in Vermont. Models are still not in good
agreement with respect to how far west the precipitation will
make it into Vermont, but most of the snow should remain east of
the Greens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EST Sunday...By Tuesday, the coastal low is
expected to eject off into the Atlantic while another low
pressure system lifts across the Great Lakes. At this time, it
still looks to be a messy pattern aloft with multiple distinct
shortwaves embedded within the flow aloft. The exact evolution
of these shortwaves proves to be a forecast challenge, but
ultimately, should bring lingering chances for snow to the North
Country throughout the day Tuesday. A weak cold front will pass
across the region on Tuesdays as its parent low lifts well to
the north through Quebec, Canada. While moisture will be
somewhat lacking as high pressure quickly begins encroaching
from the south, we still may see light mountain snow showers or
possibly freezing drizzle. With that said, precipitation chances
have been increased across the forecast area for Tuesday. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s to low 30s with
lows dropping into the low teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 308 PM EST Sunday...High pressure will settle across the
region on Wednesday, but this will be short-lived. Southerly
flow will become established by Wednesday evening and
temperatures will be on the rise. Therefore, expect partly
cloudy skies and high temperatures in the mid 30s. By Thursday
we will again see the approach of a low pressure system and
increasing chances for snow. A warm front will lift across the
North Country Wednesday night accompanied by shortwave energy
aloft. This will bring initial chances for snow before the cold
front arrives sometime during the day on Thursday. At this time,
there remains relatively good agreement among global
deterministic guidance regarding this feature, and thus
precipitation chances have been increased to 40-50% for
Thursday. The biggest difference at this point is in regards to
the timing of the frontal passage. High temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s, then dropping into
the low teens Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. The
active pattern will continue for the end of the week with
additional chances for precipitation Friday into Saturday with
temperatures trending colder then again thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period with scattered to broken ceilings in the
12-15 kft range. Gusty winds will continue through the overnight
period but will steadily weaken after 12Z with most places
seeing 8 knots or less of southerly winds by 21Z Monday. Some
wind shear is possible near the international border through 4Z
as a low level jet exits the region.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Clay
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
234 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday Night...
Strong upper level ridge is extending from the Pacific NW across
the northern Rockies. Downslope warming is on and we are seeing
temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Winds along the western
foothills are elevated with gusts of 35-45 mph.
Satellite imagery shows a Pacific wave off the coast of BC. This
feature will track thru SW Canada tomorrow and into the northern
plains to our east by Tuesday. This track is a poor one for our
region and thus we will remain dry over the next couple days.
However there will be plenty of wind.
Next dose of lee side pressure falls will favor the gap areas for
60 mph gusts beginning later tonight and continuing thru Monday
evening (after which the cold advection will result in mixed
westerly winds). 50-60 knot 700mb flow, pressure tendencies and
some mixing will give Big Timber and Harlowton a period of strong
gusts tomorrow afternoon, and overall will make no changes to any
of our existing wind highlights. There is some question as to how
deeply we will mix tomorrow. HRRR forecasts show deep mixing and
boundary layer drying across lower elevations (and cannot rule
this out as we are w/o snow cover), whereas the lower res models
show a persistent strong inversion around 800mb. Synoptically, we
will be underneath ascent Monday afternoon, then subsidence behind
the aforementioned wave that night. So timing of the cold front
is not ideal to produce deep mixing and wind, whether it be in
Sweet Grass & Wheatland Counties or the lower elevations to the
east. For this reason will keep lower elevation winds in check and
not expand the wind highlights east of the foothills, expecting
less wind the further east you go across our cwa. This will also
affect temperatures. Have raised temps above the usual NBM
guidance for highs Monday, w/o going for widespread 60s which
would happen w/ good mixing. Will be interesting to watch. Either
way, the daily record of 59F at Miles City could be challenged.
Monday night into Tuesday will be post-frontal and breezy. Temps
on Tuesday will "cool" to the 40s to lower 50s...still several
degrees above normal. Foothills winds will be gusty through
Tuesday night, but should remain at or below 50 mph at the usual
windy spots.
JKL
Wednesday through Sunday...
Little in the way of changes for the extended forecast period, as
models upper ridging, centered to our west, dominates the weather
pattern. This keeps us under northwest flow aloft, resulting in
mainly dry and breezy conditions across the region. The only
interruptions to the dry pattern appears to be a wave completing
passage through southeastern zones Wednesday, and a backdoor front
sliding into the region Thursday night and out again through
Friday evening. These systems look to bring some more mountain
snow, but mostly rain and rain/snow mix across lower elevations.
A slightly cool off is expected for Friday, behind the cold
front, and under cloud cover and showers. This may be a bit under
done, but currently coldest air appears to be well east of our
area, so we continue to watch how this system develops.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period, with
Thursday being the warmest, with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Friday conversely, will be the coolest day, with highs in
the 30s and 40s, behind the cold front and under some cloud cover
with rain and snow potential. Otherwise, the remainder of the
extended will see highs mainly in the 50s.
Winds are expected to be up the majority of the period, with
several opportunities for near Advisory level winds over the
western foothills (Wednesday morning, Thursday ahead of the
front, and again Saturday night and Sunday). Gilstad
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusty W winds across much of the area will subside this evening
after sunset. SW winds gusting to 35-40 kts will continue at
KLVM, likely throughout the TAF period, with gusts to 55 kts
starting around midnight. Other than some passing high clouds,
skies will remain mostly clear. VFR will prevail throughout the
period.
Behringer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/059 034/052 033/052 035/059 034/046 026/049 031/053
00/N 00/N 01/B 00/N 22/W 11/U 11/B
LVM 033/055 030/046 031/047 032/051 031/043 024/047 029/049
00/N 00/N 11/N 00/N 12/W 11/U 10/N
HDN 027/060 032/052 029/051 032/059 031/046 023/050 027/054
00/U 00/U 12/W 10/B 22/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 029/057 034/048 030/047 032/057 033/043 022/045 028/050
00/N 00/N 12/J 00/N 22/W 11/B 10/B
4BQ 029/060 034/048 031/046 032/056 033/044 023/046 029/050
00/U 00/N 12/W 11/N 22/W 11/B 10/B
BHK 027/054 030/043 026/040 029/052 028/038 018/041 025/045
00/N 00/N 02/W 10/N 12/W 11/B 00/B
SHR 027/062 032/049 029/047 029/057 030/043 020/048 026/052
00/U 00/N 13/W 10/B 22/W 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect from 9 AM Monday to midnight MST
Monday night FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Tuesday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1055 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Pennsylvania will remain in a generally dry northwest flow
pattern aloft for the next week with a series of moisture-
starved Clippers tracking north of the area and bringing a bit
of light snow at times for primarily the northern and western
mountains of the state.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The focus tonight will be on a weak area of low pressure,
located just off of Virginia Beach at 03Z, which is progged to
slowly lift north overnight. An easterly flow ahead of this
system is transporting low level moisture into the Delmarva this
evening, where a bit of spotty light rain/drizzle is showing up
on radar. Near term models indicate the spotty light precip
could potentially reach Lancaster County late tonight, where
surface temps will be below freezing. Confidence in measurable
freezing drizzle is still below 50pct at this point, but will
have to monitor for a possible advisory or SPS for the morning
commute.
Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure, centered over eastern Pa,
will provide the region with fair and seasonably cold conditions
overnight. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cirrus, especially over the northern mountains, as warm
advection aloft arrives ahead of upstream trough. NBM min temps
are in the mid to upper teens for much of the forecast area.
However, some valleys of north central Pa with fresh snow cover
could dip to around 10F as the latest RAP indicates. Across
Lancaster County, arriving stratus will likely hold temps to the
mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any threat of freezing drizzle across the extreme southeast part
of the forecast area should end by midday, as weak low pressure
lifts north toward Long Island and surface temps rise above
freezing.
Warm advection/southerly flow ahead of approaching upper trough,
combined with a fair amount of cirrus-filtered sunshine, should
push temperatures a few degrees above normal Monday afternoon.
Expect highs to range from 35-40F over the northern mountains
and into the low 40s in the south.
A cold front will approach northwest PA late Monday, and a
second, stronger surface low developing east of Cape Hatteras
will move NNE off the coast. The moisture starved cold front
appears unlikely to produce any precipitation over the northwest
counties, but shallow post-frontal moisture and orographic
forcing could produce some spotty, very light snow over the
Alleghenies Monday night into Tuesday morning. The bulk of
latest model guidance, including the 00Z HREF, currently track
the coastal low too far east to affect the forecast area.
However, it`s close enough to justify mention of a slight
chance of light rain/snow over parts of Lancaster County Monday
evening.
The arrival of high pressure ridge and low-pwat air mass should
result in fair and seasonable weather Tuesday into early
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A pair of clippers are progged to track north of PA during the
second half of next week. Warm advection and upsloping
southwesterly flow ahead of the first clipper could produce
a bit of very light snow over the Allegheny Plateau Wed evening
into Thursday. The second clipper is also progged to pass north
of Pennsylvania, possibly producing another round of light snow
Friday into early Saturday. Orographic enhancement in southwesterly
flow should favor the northwest mountains for the best chance
of a light accumulation. Lingering lake-enhanced upslope snow
showers are possible into early Sunday across the north and
west. However, a largely frozen Lk Erie and low inversion
heights should keep any accums very light.
A southwesterly flow ahead of the late week clippers should
help usher in relatively mild weather the second half of next
week. GEFS 2m temp anomalies support highs several degrees
above average. However, a return to below normal temps appear
likely for the second half of next weekend behind a Saturday
cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to prevail across most of the central PA
airspace through tonight and likely Monday as well, as high
pressure slides off the East Coast and very limited/mainly mid-
level moisture is aimed at us from the Midwest.
There is a chance that we could see some MVFR or upper end IFR
ceilings approach LNS and perhaps MDT after midnight tonight,
and persist through much of Monday as llvl moisture off the
Western Atlantic and Bays to the south gets pulled north and
inland ahead of a very weak low pressure system at the coast.
There could also be some FZDZ across southern and eastern
Lancaster county early Mon morning.
MVFR or IFR cigs and a chance for light snow showers will move
into northern and western airfields Mon night into Tue, while
VFR will be likely in the SE.
Outlook...
Wed-Fri...-SHSN poss NW
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
433 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
Key Impact Messages:
1) Elevated to high winds may develop across the wind prone across
the Snowy Range Foothills and around Arlington. A High Wind Watch
has been issued beginning Monday morning. Wind gusts in these
areas will approach 60 mph.
2) Breezy and dry conditions coupled with dry fuels across the NE
panhandle may lead to the develop of critical fire weather
conditions Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary.
Weather Details:
High winds may develop Monday morning across the Snowy Range
Foothill wind prone areas. This setup is not a clear slam dunk,
but parameters have come together this afternoon in the latest
model runs. In-house models have continued to show a 45-50%
probability for high winds to develop. The main limiting factor
will be whether a meso-high develops across the Laramie range
which would back the winds to a more SW vector which would limit
the high wind potential. Both the HRRR and the 4km NAM are the
most aggressive with this meso-high feature developing and are
consistent with weaker overall wind speeds some 10-15kts weaker
compared to those who suggest a stronger high wind signal. WY
zones 106 and 116 will need to be monitored for potential wind
highlights. Again, the limiting factor is the 700-750mb wind
vectors and low end omega values. But omega values are progged to
increase during the day on Monday with 700mb winds increasing to
50kts. Decided to keep those zones out given the higher confidence
with the wind vectors remaining in the less than ideal direction.
Outside of the high winds, there is a chance for some critical
fire weather conditions to develop across the NE panhandle Monday
and Tuesday ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary. Low RH
values are expected to in place and with a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the front, winds should turn breezy and coupled
with low RH and dry fuels, fire weather concerns are increasing.
As mentioned, this frontal passage will be dry and will only
slightly reduce temperatures on Monday before rebounding on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
Mostly dry and windy pattern has remained on track with a prominent
northwesterly flow as a blocking ridge of high pressure begins to
set up across the western seaboard and a near stationary trough
stretching southwesterly across the Great Lakes. Fair amount of
uncertainty in terms of wind and any precipitation on Wednesday,
with both in house model guidance and the NBM v4.1 Probability of
Exceeding 48kts indicating a lesser likelihood of strong winds to
exceed 48 knots. As a result, went ahead and nudged the winds
towards slightly upwards with a max wind gust around 46 knots. In
terms of any precipitation chances beginning Wednesday, most
solutions have remained unclear with a fair amount of model
uncertainty and the upper level dynamics/moisture advection pushing
a drier solution. Should start to see temperatures rebound by the
late week, with daytime highs soaring into the low to mid 50s,
before dropping to the low 40s this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 422 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Wind gusts
have already died off for the most part, and should remain fairly
light tonight, except at KRWL and KCYS where gusts could start to
increase again after midnight. Breezy conditions Monday afternoon
for most terminals with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
Low humidity values hovering around 25-30% will be common across
much of the NE panhandle. Fuels across the western NE panhandle
are dry and are ready to burn if fire weather reach critical
conditions. Elevated winds ahead of a weak surface boundary will
be possible across the entire region and conditions may need to
monitored across western NE Monday into Tuesday for the
development of critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
WYZ110.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MN
FIRE WEATHER...AW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
647 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022
Have updated to increase pops, expand the coverage of freezing
drizzle and adjust snow/ice accumulations. The combination of the
slow moving cold front and the approach of a fairly potent short-
wave trough have combined to produce numerous snow showers across
parts of north central and far northeast WI, and areas of freezing
drizzle across central WI. The freezing drizzle is expected to
shift east into the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas in the next
couple hours. Eventually, enough cold air will advect into the
region to change any lingering mixed precipitation to snow. The
precipitation should gradually taper off from west to east, ending
along the lakeshore by around 09z/Mon. Snow accumulations of
around an inch are possible in far northeast WI, including Door
County. Ice accumulations should only be a few hundredths of an
inch or less, but enough to ice up any untreated roads. Falling
temperatures later this evening and overnight will result in
melting agents becoming less effective for treating roads, so
hazardous travel conditions may linger overnight.
Will continue to issue Special Weather Statements to cover the
wintry precpitation this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a
shortwave trough over Minnesota and an associated cold front
positioned northeast to southwest across Wisconsin. Areas of light
snow have taken on a convective appearance, particularly over
central to northeast WI where vsbys have fallen below 3/4sm in the
heavier snow showers. A dusting to a half inch of snow looks
possible at many locations this afternoon. While temperatures
range through the 20s across northeast WI, much colder air with
temps only in the single digits are diving southeast over northern
Minnesota where skies are partially clearing. Forecast concerns
mainly revolve around snow trends, followed by clouds/temps.
Tonight...The cold front will be exiting over northern Lake
Michigan by mid to late evening, and think the light snow will be
ending by around 9 pm over northeast WI with loss of mid-level
moisture. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the front, and
likely bring in scattered snow showers into Vilas county into
early overnight. Thereafter, the surface ridge axis will drift
into western Wisconsin, which will result in partial clearing for
much of central to northeast WI. Some decoupling is possible over
the northwoods late, and therefore lowered the temps in the cold
spots.
Monday...High pressure will be over the area, which should lead to
quiet conditions for the most part. Another shortwave will move
into the state during the afternoon and it`s possible that light
snow could approach central WI. But because of the dry air within
the surface high, opted to keep the forecast dry. Temps will be
colder than today, but just a little below normal.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022
Not too many changes to the long range forecast for the week.
Northwest upper flow will make for slightly colder than average
temperatures, though there will be a couple of mild days in the
southerly flow ahead of clipper systems. The coldest weather looks
to be Saturday and Sunday.
Speaking of clipper systems, one that passes well north of here
should bring some scattered snow showers Wednesday. There is very
little moisture so the snow showers will mostly be the result of
cyclonic and upslope flow in the higher terrain of central and
north central Wisconsin.
A stronger clipper system should bring more significant snow Thursday
night and early Friday. There are big differences in the intensity
of the upper tough and surface systems, so confidence is low in snow
amounts but good that there will be some snow. The GFS forecasts
what would be an advisory snow of 3 to 5 inches with gusty winds,
while the other medium range models are much weaker.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 610 PM CST Sun Feb 6 2022
Snow showers, areas of freezing drizzle and MVFR/local IFR flight
conditions will occur this evening as a cold front and upper level
disturbance move through the region. The freezing drizzle will be
most prevalent across central and east central WI this evening.
The precipitation will taper off from west to east, ending in the
western of part of the forecast area by mid-evening, but lingering
into the early overnight hours in the east. Drier air will push
into the region from the west, resulting in rising ceiling heights
and eventually some clearing late tonight into early Monday. VFR
conditions are anticipated for most areas late tonight into
Monday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1023 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
Still expecting light precipitation to break out after 3 or 4 am
as the cold front and associated low clouds pour into the area.
Latest HRRR soundings continue to suggest a brief period of
freezing drizzle is possible between roughly 4 am and 8 am when
the cloud layer is warmer than -10C with some omega/lift present.
There have been a few reports of freezing drizzle mixed in with
the light snow upstream in WI this evening but still not
confident enough in coverage/amounts over wrn Lwr MI to issue an
advisory for light icing for early Monday morning. Other concern
is that snow grains could end up being the primary precip type,
which wouldn`t result in much impact. The main risk if it happens
appears to be near and west of Hwy 131; sort of a lake-effect
freezing drizzle scenario.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
- Overall little pattern change for the next 7 days -
There is little change in the overall pattern this week as we
remain locked in a northwest flow. This setup will provide clipper
systems about every other day moving through the Great Lakes
region (Monday, Wednesday and Friday). Each system will bring a
burst of light synoptic scale light snow followed by a brief
period of lake effect snow. The strongest system of the week will
be the one at the end of the week on Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures for much of the work week will be near normals, but
that changes into next weekend as colder air is tugged down from
Canada behind the Friday clipper system.
- First Clipper system tonight into Monday -
The clipper tonight into Monday will not bring heavy
precipitation. Most areas will see trace amounts to maybe a half
inch of snow through Monday evening. The exception will be towards
Lake Michigan where up to around an inch of snow is possible by
Monday evening as lake effect kicks in on the backside of of the
low for Monday.
There is a small chance at some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning ahead of the cold front. From about 400am through 800am
for places like Holland, Grand Rapids, South Haven and Kalamazoo,
there may be a brief 1-3 hour window of some freezing drizzle. The
freezing drizzle is associated with a pocket of lift in the
925-850mb layer ahead of the cold front. This lift is coincident
with an unsaturated DGZ. So, there may be a brief window of some
freezing precipitation tomorrow morning. Given the small time
frame we have decided to hold off on any headlines at this time.
We will be monitoring this as we work through the evening and
overnight.
- Second Clipper on Wednesday -
The next clipper in the series moves through Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Precipitation with this system looks to
potentially be a bit heavier. The light synoptic snow will end as
a bit of lake effect Wednesday night into Thursday morning before
ending. There may be a period Wednesday afternoon and evening with
some accumulation likely with a couple inches possible across
western portions of the forecast area, along and west of Highway
131.
- Strongest Clipper still set for Thursday night and Friday -
The strongest clipper will move through Thursday night and Friday.
We could see a bit higher accumulations with this system given
deeper moisture and a stronger shortwave. The track of the system
is a bit tough to nail down this far out, but will side with the
further north ECMWF at this point. Several inches of snow
accumulation appears possible with this system but its a bit early
to be talking amount specifics with a clipper 5 days out.
Colder air pours in, in the wake of the Friday clipper. Saturday
850mb temperatures plunge to -21C which will yield very cold
surface temperatures likely holding in the teens F.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 712 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
VFR conditions prevail this evening but conditions will trend down
overnight as the arrival of a cold front brings widespread IFR
ceilings into the area.
Accompanying these low clouds below 1000 ft will be occasional
light snow and possibly even some freezing drizzle, especially
west of LAN and JXN, after about 09Z. Plan for icing in the
clouds Monday morning; possibly at the sfc as well.
If any patchy freezing drizzle does develop early Monday morning,
it should end by around 15Z as the arrival of colder air behind
the cold front changes the precip type over to all snow. IFR
conditions are expected to improve to MVFR after 15Z Monday as
well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
We have opted to extend the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through
Monday evening. Models for a couple days now have shown very
little break in the winds and the waves. So, the SCA is now valid
through 10pm on Monday. Stronger southwest winds will continue
into this evening, followed by a short lived lull in the middle of
the night. By morning stronger northwest winds of 15-25 knots are
occurring which will last into the midday hours. It will take into
Monday evening before the winds and waves fall below SCA
thresholds. The 3km NAM at the mid lake forecast point shows the
winds the best via the overview.
We will see a lull in the wind and waves Monday night into Tuesday
morning, but after that much of the rest of the week will be
active. 15-25 knot winds and higher waves look likely between
Tuesday and Thursday. The strongest system of the week (Thursday
Night into Friday) will likely have gales.
Webcams and satellite imagery today continue to show mainly
shore-fast ice in our area with open water in the bulk of the
nearshore zone. That may change though tonight, especially south
of Holland as the southwest winds are pushing ice from IL and IN
towards the MI shoreline (as seen in the Day Cloud Phase RGB Imagery
from GOES-16). This ice may pack in for a time, but it will
likely remain mobile pushed by the winds through the course of the
week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1057 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
Status deck, seen on GOES16 Night Fog product over northwestern
Illinois and northern Missouri will move in from northwest to
southeast overnight with the cold front and approaching upper
trough. HRRR soundings were showing moisture limited to 900
millibars and lower in the atmosphere. Feel this is too shallow to
mention flurries or freezing drizzle but would not completely rule
it out over northern sections.
With the clouds rolling in and southwesterly winds most or all of
the night, in the case of southeastern sections, do not think the
temperature will drop below the upper teens and lower 20s.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
...Low Chance for Light Freezing Drizzle or Flurries early Monday...
Continue to be at least slightly concerned about possibility for a
brief window of flurries or freezing drizzle late tonight into
daybreak Monday. Forecast soundings, however, are not as deeply
saturated in the low levels as they were yesterday - with most
capping moisture at around 900 mb as opposed to 850 or just above.
Will continue with a slight chance pop sweeping across roughly the
northern third to half of the area from 06z to around 14z Monday, as
it appears potential at any one location may be limited only to a
couple/few hours.
Low level temperatures are borderline for ice nucleation, but
frequently does occur in such regimes, so will continue with the -
FZDZ *OR* -SN mention in the grids.
Low clouds may struggle to get out of the area Monday, with shallow
but steep low level lapse rates beneath a stout inversion, although
some breaks of sun look likely later in the day before additional
cloud cover develops Monday night as another weak upper wave passes
through the region. GFS saturates in the dendritic layer with this
wave but appears to be the outlier as other models are far drier
aloft and weaker with the disturbance itself. Will keep a dry
forecast for now and just enhance the sky cover.
With cold advection beginning within the morning period for most of
the area tomorrow, will lean toward colder raw model blend numbers
for highs on Monday in the low 20s to around 30. This may even be a
bit warm in spots depending on how much the low cloud manages to
erode tomorrow. Blend looked good for lows tonight and Monday night.
&&
.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
- Northwest flow and mainly seasonable temperatures expected this
week
- Best chances for precipitation will be this weekend.
Models continue to suggest strong ridging in place across the
Western United States through the week. This results in continued NW
flow in place aloft through the week with several clipper like waves
poised to push through the region during this time. Short waves look
to pass on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday...but each wave will be
moisture starved, as gulf moisture remains effectively blocked off
by surface high pressure across the deep south. Also the ensemble
cluster analysis suggests dry conditions through much of the
workweek. Thus will aim for a dry forecast with seasonable
tempertures.
Models suggest a stronger cold front passing across the area on
Friday that may have access to some gulf moisture with southerly
flow ahead of the system. A well organized low appears to be pushing
across the great lakes on Friday as the associated cold front passes
across Indiana. Thus will continue to aim for some pops chances on
Friday.
Dry weather should return on Saturday and Sunday as another strong
area of surface high pressure is suggested to build across Indiana
from the upper midwest.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1057 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
IMPACTS:
- VFR ceilings expected to deteriorate to MVFR after 08z-11z.
IFR possible 10z-14z, mainly at KIND and KLAF. Conditions
may improve to VFR after 11z-13z at KHUF and KBMG.
- Brief flurries or freezing drizzle can not be ruled out
at KLAF and KIND 07z-10z, but chances too low to mention.
- Winds 210-250 degrees 6 knots or less through 11z or so.
Then, winds 270-300 degrees 10 knots or less.
DISCUSSION:
A cold front will dive southeast across the terminals overnight and
an upper trough will follow during the day. However, moisture will
be shallow and only perhaps a few flurries or freezing drizzle is
possible overnight and KIND and KLAF. Otherwise, an MVFR or worse
stratocumulus deck will settle in from the northwest.
Winds will shift from southwest to west and northwest behind the
cold front with speeds 10 knots or less.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...MK
Short Term...Nield
Long Term...Puma
Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1100 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
Patchy light snow and freezing drizzle are possible late tonight
and may lead to slick spots on roads and parking lots.
Additional chances for light snow are expected throughout the
week. After one more cold night Monday night...temperatures will
moderate for the rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
The first of a long train of upper level troughs will be impacting
the area this period. The evening will by dry with temperatures
falling to more seasonable levels in the upper teens to around 20.
The best overall dynamics and moisture will reside further north
closer to the sfc low that will track across northern Lower Michigan
but still enough expected with the southern extent of the trough and
associated cold front to give small chance for some precipitation,
especially N and W. Any moisture and lift will be confined below
850 mb with the limited DGZ between 600 and 700 mb. The result
will be little/no ice production and a subsequent threat of
freezing drizzle. NW flow off Lk MI will help overcome some of
this with previous grids showing either light snow or freezing
drizzle still working out well late tonight into Mon AM before the
colder air (albeit it nothing like past surges) arrives and gives
a slightly more favorable thermal profile for all snow. While
some slick spots will be possible, no widespread or significant
travel issues are expected at this time. Consensus has been to
keep pops confined to slight chc away from the lake and low end
chc where lake contribution will increase the potential for a
dusting to maybe half inch of snow (mainly across Berrien county
and from a combination of synoptic and maybe a bit of lake
effect).
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
Atmospheric train tracks will remain active with several more
troughs set to impact the area in some fashion, each becoming more
amplified with time and potentially greater impacts. Before getting
there, 12Z GFS remains fixed on some light QPF on the warm front
late Mon night into Tuesday morning with all other models in the dry
camp. As a result, will maintain a dry forecast Tuesday morning.
The next trough will arrive Weds but model trends for the 12Z
package look even drier with no model showing precip Wednesday and
only limited chcs for some lake response Wed night. Will therefore
go dry for Wednesday and keep a more muted lake response Wed night
for the time being.
Some timing issues exist in the 12Z model suites regarding the next,
stronger trough to impact the area late Thurs night through the rest
of the period but higher confidence for impactful synoptic and lake
effect snowfall. GFS is a bit slower (more Fri afternoon) with
Canadian and EC more in line with past thinking. Given we are
several days out and model fluctuations are guaranteed (in track
and timing) will leave forecast alone mid to high chc pops along
with a token 6 hour likely pop in the far N/NW late Thurs night.
With regards to temperatures, much less dramatic temp swings are
expected with each of these waves until we get into the weekend when
a return to colder values occurs. With highs near or above freezing,
the snowpack across the area will continue to compact and melt to
some extent but likely remain intact in some fashion or another
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 1100 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
HRRR continues to stress IFR ceilings to develop late tonight
across northern Indiana with cooling/saturation behind surface
frontal passage. Secondary trough and mid level vorticity
advection should be sufficient to generate very light
precipitation in the morning hours. Cloud top temperatures in the
M10-12C range support a mix of ice and supercooled droplets,
lending FZDZSN as a distinct possibility at KSBN. Confidence wanes
with lower probabilities of precipitation with time and eastern
extent such that threshold for specific tempo mention at KFWA not
met and will cover any spotty potnetial with VCSH mention.
Ceilings improving out of fuel/alternate by late Monday afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Murphy
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1009 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through this evening
before low pressure develops off the coast late tonight into
Monday. High pressure builds back over the area from the west
late Tuesday through late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1005 PM Sun...Weak band of showers associated with low-
level WAA is slowly lifting across southeastern NC towards
Onslow and Duplin counties and will likely result in light rain
and drizzle for the next couple of hours. Raised PoPs
accordingly, but otherwise forecast is in good shape.
Prev disc...The main features impacting the sensible wx across
Eastern NC through tonight will be high pressure over New
England nosing south into the Carolinas while a weak surface low
slowly develops off the FL/GA coast. Stronger gradient winds
have begun to relax a bit this afternoon, and should diminish to
5-10 mph for inland locations and 10-15 mph for coastal
portions overnight. Increasing clouds and chances for
precipitation from south to north late tonight into early Monday
morning. Inland minimum temps fall into the mid 30s with temps
in the upper 30s to lower 40s for southern/coastal locations at
the onset of precip early Monday morning. Do not anticipate
p-type issues as near-surface layer should be sufficiently above
freezing along with forecast soundings taking a while to
saturate and by then, we`ll be well above freezing into the
mid/upper 40s later into Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 335 PM Sunday...The surface low off FL/GA gradually
develops as it lifts northeast off the SC/NC coast on Monday. No
big changes to the forecast for this event. The low will pass
offshore with PoPs becoming high likely inland to categorical
along the coast, closer to moisture convergence on the western
periphery of the surface low. Rainfall amounts range one
quarter to one half of an inch. Clouds and precip will prevent
much insolation, with max temps only building into the mid 40s
inland to mid 50s along the immediate coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 AM Sat...Subtle changes to the forecast from yesterday.
Beyond Tuesday the long term is dry and seasonal until late in the
week when model guidance diverges significantly with very wide
spread in the data. Increased PoPs slightly for now but will have to
wait for more details to emerge.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 735 PM Sun...Tricky and lower than average confidence
forecast this evening. Main challenge is in the immediate term
regarding a broken MVFR stratus deck courtesy of low-level
onshore flow. The HRRR and NAM are best handling this feature
and suggest cigs will bounce between VFR and MVFR for the next
few hours and remain sct through much of the overnight hours.
Set up TEMPO groups closely following HRRR guidance. No IFR
conditions expected with this feature.
Developing low pressure off the southeast coast is expected to
lift toward the Carolinas overnight and tomorrow, bringing
increased moisture with it. Sct MVFR conditions are likely
overnight with widely sct shower activity, but bulk of rainfall
will hold off until after 13z Mon. Low MVFR to IFR conditions
then forecast for the remainder of the period.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 235 AM Sat...As with the public forecast the main concern in
the long term will be the system moving through the area Monday
into Tuesday. Expect periods of sub-VFR conditions with light
to moderate rain expected at all terminals. Winds however do not
appear to be as big of a concern with this system, staying in
the 5-10 kt gusting to an occasional 15 kts with a northerly
component. VFR conditions return for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 340 PM Sunday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate the
NNE to N gradient winds have finally diminished a bit for the
coastal waters and Sounds. Current obs now only an occasional
gust above 25 kt for the coastal waters and eastern end of the
Pamlico Sound. Have adjusted Small Craft Advisories in line with
recent trends, and expect winds to fall below SCA levels for the
Pamlico Sound and coastal waters this evening, with seas
lingering at or above 6 ft for the outer portions of the coastal
waters until later tonight.
Improving conditions later tonight with winds remaining NNE/N
5-15 kt and seas subsiding 3-5 ft through Monday. On Monday, a
surface low will track off the NC coast, but will remain rather
unremarkable in strength - most guidance indicates a 1013-1015
mb low at min pressure as it passes offshore. Gradient winds
begin to pick back up closer to 20 kt by Monday evening,
especially for the northern and central waters.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 235 AM Sat...With low pressure system offshore on Monday and
Tuesday expect seas and winds to come up and approach SCA criteria
in the central waters but at this time guidance points to
values just below criteria with seas of 3-5 feet and winds
gusting in the 20-25 kt range. A gradual improvement is expected
thereafter, with seas dropping to 2-3 feet and winds 10-15 kts
becoming southwesterly.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/MS
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/MS/RCF
MARINE...DAG/RTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
508 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system passing by to our east this evening
will result in dry and breezy conditions through Monday. A warming
trend is then expected through midweek as high pressure builds
across the intermountain West. No measurable precipitation is
anticipated for at least the next seven days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest RAP streamline analysis and water vapor imagery depict an
energetic northerly flow across Arizona between a mid-level
anticyclone across northern California and a short-wave trough
dropping southward through New Mexico. PWATs remain below average
and no precipitation is expected from this trough. Instead, breezy
to occasionally windy conditions will be the main hazard early
this evening.
Upstream observations from northern Arizona indicate wind gusts
as high as 35-45 mph. Although winds of this magnitude are not
anticipated across the Valley, latest HREF ensemble max suggests
gusts could reach as high as 30-35 mph across the foothills and
higher terrain north and east of Phoenix this evening. Forecast
winds were consequently nudged upward and towards the experimental
NBM and the upper quartile of the current NBM. The pressure
gradient will remain tight overnight as a strong surface high
builds across the intermountain West. This will result in the
breeziness persisting through Monday, with occasional gusts
reaching 20 mph in the Valley as the atmosphere mixes out during
the late morning.
Slightly cooler conditions are likely Monday in the wake of the
trough. Thereafter, a warming trend is anticipated through the
week as a series of ridges build across the eastern Pacific and
western CONUS. Although the strongest height anomalies will be
positioned to our north, above normal temperatures are expected
for at least the next 7 days.
The NBM continues to suggest the warmest day across central
Arizona will be Thursday. There is currently a 70 percent of
hitting 80 degrees in Phoenix, which on average occurs for the
first time on February 3rd. Even warmer conditions are likely
across southeastern California, where there is a slight chance
(10%) El Centro could take a run at 85 degrees towards the end of
the week.
Latest ensemble suites are exhibiting only slight differences in
the clusters, which is a reflection of the strong model agreement.
Initially it appeared there could be another short-wave riding
down the eastern flank of the ridge Thursday, though that is no
longer the case. Consequently, a period of gusty conditions
Thursday afternoon appears even more unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0008Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
A dry weather disturbance moving through the region will lead to
strengthening northeasterly flow in the lower levels late this
afternoon/early evening. At the surface, winds have been westerly
but anticipate a distinct shift to northeast as early as 00Z and
as late as 02Z. Gusts of 20-25 kts will be common this evening
though there may be times when gusts are infrequent. Anticipate
lighter northeast and east surface winds aft 07Z. However, above
the surface, but within 2kft AGL, northeast winds of 25-35kts can
be expected tonight through at least 16Z. Thus, conditions may
approach or even reach LLWS criteria. Locations that have surface
winds that are not in the northeast quadrant tonight into Monday
morning could very well be experiencing LLWS conditions. At this
time, that appears more likely at KSDL and KIWA than KPHX and
KDVT. By 17Z or so, anticipate the surface inversion to break and
easterly winds to prevail along with some minor gustiness before
weakening during the latter half of the afternoon. Otherwise,
clear skies.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Moderate to strong northerly winds in the lower troposphere will
trend to northeasterly and then weaken after midnight. Northerly
surface winds will weaken this evening and trend toward light
downvalley westerly at KIPL. But northerly winds will continue
this evening at KBLH but not be quite as strong before weakening
further by 07Z. LLWS is not anticipated due to weakening flow
above the surface. Anticipate a resumption of north and
northeasterly surface winds by 18Z but lighter than they were
today. Otherwise, clear skies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Light winds are expected through Wednesday before another dry
weather disturbance glancing the area for Thursday may deliver
enhanced breeziness once again. Temperatures are expected to go
into a warming trend as we head throughout the week, with highs
forecast to be several degrees above normal. Min RH values
throughout the period will be mostly between 10-20% while max RHs
will be mostly between 25-45%.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ561-564-
568-570.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php