Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/06/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
448 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 329 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) The high wind event and remaining wind warnings will be ending this evening. The wind prone areas may continue to see elevated winds with gusts up to 45 mph into the late evening hours. 2) A weak frontal boundary will bring some snow/snow showers this evening. Some areas of brief bursts of heavy snow may occur across the northern I-25 corridor and the Snowy Range/Sierra Madre Mountains. Some light snow may also be possible across Cheyenne and portions of the western NE panhandle. 3. Quiet and dry conditions with warming temperatures through Monday. Weather Details: Been tracking area observation sites throughout the afternoon and the trend has been a gradual decrease of wind gusts across all areas, and this trend was consistent enough to warrant the expiration of the high wind warning for all the lower valley zones to occur 3 hours earlier. Wind gusts across the wind prone areas have come down but some sites were still hitting criteria so those high wind warnings will continue to the slotted 5 PM MST expiration time. Winds across the entire area will have a sharp falloff after sunset and a quiet wind period will ensue. Outside the wind forecast, the main weather feature will be the passage of an upper level trough and weak frontal boundary that will move north to south across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska this evening. Upper level dynamics are very strong as noted by a strong jet max rounding the trough axis. This should be enough to overcome the limited moisture available to initiate some areas of snow/snow showers along the frontal boundary and across the north facing upslope regions of the Laramie Range. HI- RES models have been consistent from run to run in showing some weak banding features developing late tonight. Both the HRRR and RAP have a weak band pushing into Cheyenne just after midnight, and could initiate some light showery snow that could be enough to coat the roadways. This frontal boundary will also bring in some colder temperatures overnight and make for a cool day on Sunday with most everyone seeing temperatures below normal. Heading into Monday, northwest flow aloft remains in place but with no embedded shortwaves or vorticity maxima`s of note, expect and quiet and dry day on Monday with rebounding temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 329 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Overall mostly dry and windy pattern setting up across much of the long term forecast with slight variations to previous runs. A few shortwave troughs are expected to pulse through the region, turning the dominate northwesterly flow more westerly and kicking up the wind speeds along the way. Confidence has remained steady for the next couple of wind events with the deterministic GFS gaining support from the NBM v4.1 Probability of Exceeding 48kts indicating a high likelihood of strong winds along the Central Laramie Range and eastward into Bordeaux through 06z Tuesday, and the 06z Wednesday run extending westward to include Arlington. As a result, went ahead and nudged the winds towards high wind criteria with possible highlights needed once we get closer into the beginning of the week. With the frontal passage expected on Tuesday from the associated shortwave, precipitation chances remain unclear with a fair amount of model uncertainty. The GFS have continued to be the strongest advocate of higher moisture advection into the region, pushing upwards to 1-2 inches of snow across the high plains by the afternoon hours, the Euro keeping most totals across the high plains to just under an inch, and the NBM having a dry solution. At this time, left most of the higher POPs across the higher terrains where upslope will play a likely role, and will need to keep an eye on the progression of this next system to determine specific impacts, if any. Nevertheless, should see a modest temperature drop Tuesday through Thursday, before temperatures rebound by the late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 439 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 VFR conditions currently across area terminals with increasing cloud cover headed into this evening. Winds have been decreasing late this afternoon and will continue to do so over the next few hours. SE WY terminals could see wind gusts around 25 kts stick around slightly longer than other sites in the area. Chance for snow showers will increase mainly after 06z, but coverage still remains scattered off latest hi-res guidance. Decided to keep VCSH in the TAFs for now, but may need to make AMD later tonight once these snow showers develop across the area. Could see brief reductions to ceiling and visibility, possibly to IFR conditions between 06z and 12z. Skies will begin to clear Sunday morning, but gusty winds will return by midday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 AM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 No fire weather concerns this weekend through most of next week as a progressive northwest flow pattern stays over the northern and central Front Range. This will result in several Canadian cold fronts moving southeast across the area beginning Today and again on Tuesday. Periods of colder temperatures with a chance of light snow possible through Wednesday evening. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106-110. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AW LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MB FIRE WEATHER...TJT
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 234 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2022 Key Points: * Dry and seasonal temperatures expected over the next seven days. Detailed discussion... Gusty southwest winds have developed across the area today with momentum mixing down from aloft. 35-40 knots at 925 hpa is expected to last through the evening hours. Weak surface inversion will try to set up limiting gust through the overnight, but have raised surface temperatures through the overnight with strong flow aloft. Dry cold front is expected to move through the region on Sunday, though models are hinting at the potential of stratus behind the front. NAM is the most aggressive with the stratus, but has some support from the short term hi-res HRRR and RAP. Have raised cloud cover a bit over the blend. With dry conditions and gusty winds over bare ground, will see an elevated fire danger across northwestern Missouri. Fire danger moderates across the rest of the area with snow cover limiting potential. With surface high pressure nosing into the area, expected winds to decrease Sunday night and lead to good radiative conditions as long as clouds can clear. Warming trend expected Monday into Tuesday with southwest flow developing once again. Warming potential will be limited by lingering snow cover, but in areas that are snow free, temperatures could approach 60 degrees. Concerned that timing of weak cold front Tuesday may limit the heating potential across much of the snow free area across northern and western Missouri. A series of disturbances are expected to drop into the center of the country from the northwest, but limited amounts of moisture will limit potential impact. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal if not mild with highs generally in the 40s and lows near freezing. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 519 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2022 VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. Gusty south- southwesterly winds will decrease after sunset. There is some concern about LLWS with strong winds aloft. But both the change in direction and the speed increase look gradual so will keep mention out for now. Tomorrow, a front will move south through the area and shift winds to the northwest. There will be some lower- level clouds move in behind the front. These look to be on the lower end of VFR but can`t rule out some MVFR cloud bases. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...BT Aviation...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
552 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a clipper system moving into far northern Minnesota early this afternoon. Warm advection is occurring ahead of the clipper across the northern Great Lakes, which is leading to a swath of light snow from central Wisconsin to the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Visibilities in the light snow are mainly in the 1-2sm range, so believe snowfall amounts up to about 2 inches remains on track (highest near the U.P. border). The swath of snow will lift northeast over the rest of the afternoon and exit most areas by the end of the afternoon. As a cold front moves into the region, light snow chances/trends are the focus of this forecast. Tonight...The compact shortwave trough will move across far northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula this evening. Decent forcing will accompany the trough and upstream obs support keeping a chance of light snow in the forecast through the evening across the far north. The cold front then moves into northeast WI after midnight. While low level moisture remains, mid-level moisture scours out and think chances of snow are low enough to remove from the forecast. South winds will continue tonight and combined with the clouds, temps shouldn`t fall much. Lows ranging from the upper single digits to mid teens. Sunday...The cold front will slow as it moves across northeast Wisconsin. Arrival of additional shortwave energy will give it a boost forward in the afternoon, but will also bring back a chance of light snow as moisture deepens within the column. Accumulations should be light as forcing is relatively weak. Highs will warm to around 20 degrees in the north and low 30s in the south. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Northwest upper flow is forecast to continue through at least the end of next week by the medium range models, with a few shortwave troughs producing CLipper like systems Wednesday and Thursday night or Friday. Since there is very little moisture available, there is little chance of heavy snow next week. The best chance of a few inches of snow looks to be Thursday night into early Friday. Southerly winds ahead of the Clipper systems will bring a couple warmer than average days, while northwest flow behind the systems will bring a few colder than average days. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Snow has temporarily tapered off across all but far northeast WI early this evening, but another round of snow showers was moving through far northwest WI, and headed toward the northern part of the forecast area. These were associated with a potent short-wave trough. These may impact the RHI TAF site for a couple hours this evening. Lingering light snow or freezing drizzle could continue into the early overnight hours over far northern WI. Ceilings had improved to VFR at most locations early this evening, but as a cold front advances into northeast Wisconsin, models lower ceilings to MVFR again tonight into Sunday. There may be a period of light snow over the southeast TAF sites Sunday afternoon. LLWS will impact the TAF sites tonight, ending toward midnight at the western TAF sites and late tonight at the eastern sites. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 214 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 The dry slot associated with a passing clipper system across central and northern MN has allowed for clearing and ample sun for a few hours across much of the region. A cold front and wrap around clouds will swing through early this evening. Some light snow showers could accompany the cyclonic flow north of I-94, but no accumulations are expected. Another cold front and surge of colder air will pass through very late tonight. The low levels will be moist but the depth of the moist DGZ will only extend up to about 5kft. There could be some sporadic light snow or flurries, but nothing particularly organized or noteworthy heading into Sunday morning. The polar air will retreat to the northeast during the beginning of the week. A north-south warm front on the leading edge of the milder air to the west could produce some light snow or flurries across MN late Sunday night into early Monday afternoon. Little or no accumulation is expected, but had to increase PoPs to at least slight chance. Mild Pacific air engulfs the region Tuesday. Highs should reach the upper 30s to mid 40s, but could be a bit warmer than that based on past warm ups this season. Consistency degrades toward the end of the week with northwest flow, but there are some signs of increasing confidence. A more impressive clipper riding down the tight baroclinic zone is likely to bring precip somewhere, but it is subject to the track. Canadian and ECMWF are quite a bit farther northeast with the track than the GFS. ECMWF EPS temperature spread is actually tightly clustered with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s late week. Thus, it appears more likely the track will be to our northeast, taking much of the precip with it. Aside from the nuisance chances for light snow early week and the system late week, it doesn`t appear we`ll have any decent chances for accumulating snow through the middle of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 We have the first batch of MVFR/VFR stratus over MN to start this period that will be clear EAU around 6z. There`ll be a brief period of little cloud cover this evening before another round of MVFR or lower stratus currently up in NoDak drops southeast into MN on a secondary cold front. We`re seeing the HRRR and HopWRFs showing a little light snow with this front dropping south across western/southern MN, so did add tempo groups for snow to RWF/MKT. If we were to see anything, it looks very brief and of very minimal impact/accumulation. Lower confidence on how long MVFR stratus sticks around behind this secondary front, but even the most aggressive model with clearing the post frontal moisture out, the GFS, has stratus hanging out through most of the day on Sunday. KMSP...Have kept any snow mention out of MSP, with that threat looking greatest along the MN River Valley. Hard to say how long into the day post frontal stratus will linger, so basically kept what we had going, though a return to SKC conditions could come as late as 9z Monday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR bcmg MVFR. Wind S at 10G20 kts bcmg WNW at 5-15 kts. Wed...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind WNW at 10-15G25 kts && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...MPG