Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/04/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
739 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will begin to accumulate more across the Finger Lakes as
colder air filters into the area behind a cold front. A wintry
mix of precipitation will spread into the Twin Tiers this
evening, and Northeast Pennsylvania later tonight. Significant
snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulations are expected. Quiet
but cold weather will prevail heading into the weekend, with
some lake effect snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
739 PM update...
Warm nose aloft making a slight push to the north across ne PA
and into south-central NY this evening. At the same time, a
relatively deep layer of cold air right near the surface is
plunging to the south, undercutting this warm nose and creating
very favorable conditions for high-elevation freezing rain and
valley sleet this evening and into the overnight hours. Have
made some minor adjustments to the weather-type forecast, and
a slight decrease to snow amounts within and ahead of the
corridor of wintry mix from near Towanda to Binghamton to
Oneonta.
There is some concern for how far south the cold wedge will make
it underneath the warm nose aloft, which could allow for more
freezing rain above 1300 feet, and a good deal more sleet in the
valley locations. Will continue to monitor the situation in
real-time and make adjustments to the forecast as the conditions
warrant.
245 PM Update:
Cold front has slowed to a crawl across the CWA, and currently
runs from somewhere between Elmira and Towanda PA, and more or
less along or just north of the Susquehanna through Broome
County, and up the Unadilla River before curving up into the
Adirondacks. Freezing temperatures are lurking just behind the
front. Despite hovering right around 32 degrees at BGM, we`ve
yet to change over to snow or even a mix. Snow seems to be
struggling to stick to the ground around Elmira and Ithaca.
Based on the 19Z RAP initialization, the only area that might be
seeing a warm nose over the front is in western Bradford County
PA right now. The front looks to just crawl slowly SE over the
next few hours, then finally speed up a little after dark.
Latest runs of the HRRR seem to have a good handle on the
progression of the front and freezing temperatures over the next
6-12 hours, while earlier runs (12Z) were a little too fast. The
NAM, which was the stalwart warm model yesterday, now is running
a little too cold, too fast.
By 6 PM, we should start to see the cold air drop southeast a
little faster, with the overlying warm nose finally taking shape
behind the front, with mixed precipitation in a strip across
most of Bradford PA and Broome Counties, and on up across the
upper Susquehanna. The freezing temperatures, with overlying
warm nose, will spread into the Wyoming Valley, Poconos, and
Catskills (especially Sullivan County NY) after 11 PM or
Midnight, with light snow taking over in the Wyoming Valley
around dawn.
All told, the heaviest snow will be north of a Corning-Whitney
Point-Norwich-Cooperstown Line, with 10-12 inches across the
Finger Lakes and into the Thruway Corridor. There will be a very
sharp gradient in snowfall amounts right along the Susquehanna
in NY, with 2 to 4 inches of mostly sleet and some light
freezing rain in the Tri-Cities. As suspected yesterday, most of
Broome County except for the far north may not see Winter Storm
Warning criteria snow, but with the risk of light freezing
rain, copious amounts of sleet, and the extremely sharp
gradient, it would be foolish to downgrade to an Advisory at
this time and only confuse the messaging, which is best
expressed with the Storm Total precip graphics rather than
county based wwa products.
Over NE PA and into the Catskills, including the Wyoming Valley,
rain will slowly change over to a mix of sleet and freezing
rain, with some snow mixed in, later tonight, from north to
south. Soundings suggest the cold air depth will be sufficient
for refreezing to sleet much of the time, though this may vary
on elevation, with potentially more glazing in the higher
elevations than in the valleys once the cold air finally gets
in. Freezing rain totals have been incremented up slightly, with
areas of 0.25 to 0.45 inches of flat ice possible in the higher
terrain areas of the Catskills, Poconos, and mountains
surrounding the Wyoming Valley. The valley itself will see
varying amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 inches, with locally a half
inch to an inch of sleet.
Some model precip type graphics on various websites suggest the
potential of greater ice amounts in some areas, which can`t be
completely discounted, though it`s difficult to know how these
products are deciding and accumulating precip types (they could
be robust or very crude methods). Forecast soundings are
generally more favorable for freezing rain changing to sleet as
the colder air depth increases behind the front.
500 AM Update:
Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for most of Central NY, as
well as Bradford County, PA. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for the rest of the forecast area (southern Catskills and
the rest of Northeast PA).
Temperatures early this morning continue to be a bit warmer than
previously forecast, but are slowly falling as a slow moving
cold front moves through the Finger Lakes Region. Light rain
has changed to snow across northern Oneida and well as parts of
western Steuben county. Rain will continue to changeover to snow
from west to east across the Finger Lakes Region to the western
Mohawk Valley as the morning progresses. Precipitation will
remain mainly light rain this morning for the Twin Tiers-
Southern Catskills southward into Northeast PA.
As the frontal boundary slowly moves south and east, shallower
cold air will undercut warmer air just aloft. Along this
boundary, a wintry mix of mainly light snow, sleet, and
freezing rain is expected to develop by the late morning/early
afternoon along a line stretching from Bradford County, PA
through the Southern Tier of NY and along the I-88 corridor.
North and west of this diagonal line, precipitation this
afternoon will mainly be in the form of light to moderate snow.
South and east of this line, precipitation this afternoon will
be mainly rain.
The bulk of the impacts from this long duration winter storm
will be seen tonight into Friday morning. An elongated area of
low pressure will ride along the slowly moving frontal boundary,
leading to moderate to heavy precipitation. Meanwhile, a warm
nose aloft will result in an area of sleet for parts of the
Southern Tier of NY and rest of Central NY (perhaps as far north
as the southern Finger Lakes). Just south of this area, mainly
freezing rain is expected for much of Northeast PA to the
eastern parts of the Southern Tier of NY to the Catskills.
Moderate to heavy snow is expected across much of the Finger
Lakes region to the western Mohawk Valley. This zone of a wintry
mix will work its way southeastward through the rest of
Northeast PA as the night progresses, with precipitation
changing over to snow behind it.
This is a very tricky forecast, as there will be a very sharp
gradient between precipitation types (and therefore a sharp
gradient in snow and ice amounts). While confidence is high in
seeing mostly, if not all snow across the Finger Lakes Region
to the Western Mohawk Valley, confidence in specific
precipitation types is rather low for most of the rest of the
area. Either way you slice it, hazardous travel conditions are
expected tonight into Friday morning area-wide with either
significant snowfall accumulations, ice accumulations, or a
combination of both. With the sharp gradient expected, it is
certainly possible snow and/or ice forecasted amounts go up or
down in our forecast updates today.
On Friday, the cold front will finally finish pushing through
the remainder of our area (Poconos-Catskills), changing any
remaining wintry mix to snow for the rest of the area. As the
front moves east of the area, snowfall intensity and coverage
will gradually diminish, especially by the afternoon. With cold
air advection behind the front, temperatures will remain nearly
steady in the upper teens to lower 20s for most of the area,
with 20s for the Poconos-Catskills.
Right now, storm total snowfall is expected to be mainly in the
8-12 inch range for most of the Finger Lakes Region, with some
amounts over a foot across the higher elevations. Locally higher
amounts will be possible in any heavier snow bands. Farther
south and east, forecast snow amounts come with a lot of
uncertainty, depending on how much of a wintry mix occurs. Right
now expecting a narrow stripe of 4 to 8 inches from Chemung-
Tioga- northern Broome- Chenango- Otsego counties, but this
could be considerably lower if more sleet or freezing rain mixes
in. Farther south and east, mainly 2 to 4 inches of snow is
expected with greater ice accumulations. Our far southeastern
zones (Poconos-Sullivan County NY) may even struggle to see 1
inch of snow.
While our southeastern areas will see less snow, these same
areas will see more ice. Right now expecting a large swath of
0.10"-0.25" of ice accumulation for most of Northeast PA to the
Catskills and even as far west as parts of the Southern Tier of
NY. It is certainly possible ice amounts could locally be higher
than this range, especially at the higher elevations of
Northeast PA.
All Winter Storm Warnings that were in place before remain in
effect. Also added Bradford County, PA into the warning as well
with heavy mixed precipitation expected. Elsewhere, after
coordinating with our surrounding offices, converted any Winter
Storm Watches to Winter Weather Advisories as confidence in
seeing warning criteria snow or ice is much lower at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM Update...
Lake effect snow showers linger Friday night into early Saturday
with chilly northwest flow behind the exiting cold front. Soundings
are moist enough through the DGZ to indicate some additional light
accumulations, especially if we can get some more localized
enhancement downwind of the Finger Lakes or in the higher terrain
south of Syracuse. However, accumulations should generally be below
an inch. Snow showers taper off into Saturday with drier air and
high pressure building in, ensuring dry weather the rest of the
weekend.
Temperatures will start off chilly Saturday, falling into the single
digits and only peaking in the teens to lower 20s even as skies
clear out. With the ridge moving overhead Saturday night into
Sunday, temperatures aloft will be warming. However, cold air
remains locked in at the surface, and with clear skies and light
winds as well as a fresh snowpack, it is looking like an ideal
radiational cooling night. Expect temperatures to fall several
degrees farther than the previous night, generally into the single
digits below 0F by early Sunday morning.
Dry and sunny weather continues Sunday with high pressure in control
and warmer temperatures peaking in the 20s. Clouds start to work
back in from the west Sunday night as a clipper system begins to
move in from the Great Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM Update:
A period of quiet and generally dry weather is expected into the
work week. Clouds will linger Monday as a weak, moisture-starved
cold front grazes the area. With better forcing and moisture to our
north, we should generally be dry. However, with westerly flow
setting up behind this exiting system overnight into Tuesday, a few
lake effect snow showers cannot be ruled out mainly north of the
Thruway. A ridge builds back in for the middle of the week with
clearing skies. Temperatures for the rest of the period will range
in the teens for morning lows, peaking in the 30s during the
afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The messy system continues to cause headaches with the precip
types this evening. The warm layer aloft has made it almost to
ITH and may get there this evening. BGM has so far stayed mostly
freezing rain and will likely continue as that for a few more
hours as the deeper cold airmass slowly oozes south. A period of
PL is likely before changing to all SN by around 12z. ELM has
seen mostly PL with some SN mixing in at time and with the front
stalled that will continue most of the night as well. SYR and
RME are well north of the cold air and stay all snow with
intermittent heavier bands move through. ITH is still fairly
uncertain with the warm nose aloft knocking at the terminals
doorstep. Right now it should stay mostly SN with brief periods
of PL at times improving vis greater than forecast but the
threat of heavier snow bands at the same time lead to the tempo
of lower vis from SN. AVP stays all RA till around 4z when the
cold air finally makes it and changes to FZRA. There is
uncertainty in the depth of cold air so a mix of PL and FZRA was
added after 9Z.
Tomorrow morning the warm air advection weakens as the elongated
low propagates further NE with the cold front surging south and
all terminals changing to SHSN. CNY terminals will hold on to
lower cigs with SHSN through the early afternoon. AVP dries out
the lower atmosphere with snow showers ending but MVFR cigs
continuing into the evening.
Outlook...
Friday...IFR or worse restrictions expected early, then gradual
improvement with snow winding down through the day.
Friday night...Restrictions possible with lingering lake effect
snow showers.
Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for PAZ038.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for PAZ039-040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...AJG/HLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
531 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS persist tonight and into Friday. Showers continue to
impact eastern sites, but will be moving out of VCT within the
next hour or two. CRP and VCT will hold onto precipitation longer.
Victoria temperatures are right at freezing, so what is falling
there is likely freezing on contact with especially elevated
surfaces. Sleet will also mix in there at times. Corpus Christi is
holding at 35 degrees, but should continue to creep down, and
could change over to freezing rain for a time between now and
midnight. Small chance another narrow band of precipitation
develops after midnight, but will not include additional chances
as probabilities are very low. If it does occur, this would mainly
impact CRP. Gusty north winds will continue through the period.
CIGS should lift late in the period from west to east.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Cold air advection continued to pour south this afternoon
following last night`s arctic front. As of 3 PM, the freezing
line was on the doorsteps of most of our northernmost counties and
will continue to slowly expand south in the coming hours. Precip-
wise, the focus remains on a narrow band of mid-level ascent
bisecting the region ahead of a shortwave trough exiting the Big
Bend region. This wave is maintaining a corridor of Fn ascent
within the 700-500mb layer which resides within the saturated
dendritic growth zone. As the shortwave trough and saturated DGZ
depart our region early this evening, South Texas will be left
with mostly low stratus and not much saturation aloft to aid in
precip generation.
Barring some light freezing drizzle developing within the stratus
layer later this evening, the next opportunity for precip
overnight arrives courtesy of another shortwave trough that became
fragmented from the lead wave. The HRRR is generally the only
model keying on renewed saturation aloft with this latter wave,
and with enough run-to-run consistency this seems reasonable to
include 30% PoPs for the Coastal Plains around midnight tonight
before deeper subsidence arrives late tonight/early Fri morning
and pushes precip offshore. Decided to end the Winter Weather
Advisory at 9 AM as precip should be long gone by this time.
Temps around midnight should be freezing most everywhere under
this band of renewed lift, so very light ice and or sleet would be
the dominant p-type. We anticipate launching a 06Z balloon to
sample this critical thermal profile.
Despite clearing skies from W-E through the day Friday, continued
cold but drier conditions are on tap as cold surface ridging and
blustery N winds remain fixed over the region. Highs were kept
coldest (upper 30s) over the eastern 1/3 of the region where
clouds will be last to clear. Unfortunately, mostly clear skies
and diminishing winds Friday night are pointing to even colder
lows with a Hard Freeze not out of the question for most of our
inland areas. Opted to keep our regular Freeze Watch intact to
limit product complexity and confusion at this point, but later
forecasts will adjust as necessary.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
High pressure centered over Central Texas Saturday will gradually
move eastward through the weekend as the next upper level
disturbance approaches the area. Models are showing an upper level
trough digging across the Rockies Sunday, before absorbing an upper
level low Sunday night. The upper level low will slide across the
area Monday/Tuesday increasing our rain chances beginning Sunday
night and lingering through Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will filter
into the area Tuesday night with PWATs less than 0.5 inches bringing
an end to our rain chances as high pressure settles into the region.
Temperatures are expected to remain rather chilly Saturday with
max temperatures ranging between the upper 40s and mid 50s. A
gradual warming trend begins Sunday before most of the area
returns to the 60s by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon. Saturday night
will feature the last night with widespread freezing temperatures
across South Texas. Low temperatures are expected to gradually
warm throughout the week returning back to the 40s by Wednesday
night.
MARINE...
Very strong northerly flow will continue through Friday afternoon
over the waters with frequent gusts to gale force. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely over the bays this evening through
Friday. A band of light rain should overspread the bays and waters
early this evening, with the potential for light sleet or freezing
rain at times near the coast. This precipitation will end Friday
morning as much drier air arrives. Moderate to strong northerly
winds are expected Saturday morning gradually decreasing
throughout the day, before subsiding to a weak to moderate
northeasterly flow by late Saturday night. With another upper
level disturbance next week, moderate to strong winds winds are
expected to return resulting in small craft exercise caution and
Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday before returning back to
weak to moderate by Tuesday night. With the upper level
disturbance next week, there will be a chance for showers Sunday
night through Tuesday afternoon, with dry conditions thereafter.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 27 38 26 49 35 / 30 10 0 0 0
Victoria 25 38 24 49 29 / 30 10 0 0 0
Laredo 29 42 26 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 28 40 24 52 32 / 20 0 0 0 0
Rockport 28 40 29 49 38 / 30 20 0 0 0
Cotulla 26 42 22 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 28 40 25 50 33 / 30 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 29 39 31 48 41 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning For
the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun
Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland
Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San
Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...La Salle...Live
Oak...McMullen...Nueces Islands...Victoria...Webb.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Friday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun
Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
Patricio...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland San
Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday For the
following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
Coastal Aransas...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Inland Kleberg...Inland
Nueces...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
Islands...Nueces Islands...Webb.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the following
zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg
Islands...Nueces Islands.
Wind Chill Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday For
the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun
Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland
Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San
Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...La Salle...Live
Oak...McMullen...Nueces Islands...Victoria...Webb.
Freeze Warning until noon CST Friday For the following zones:
Bee...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Refugio...Goliad...Inland
Calhoun...Inland Refugio...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...
Victoria.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
Friday For the following zones: Duval.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday For the following
zones: Inland Calhoun...Inland Refugio.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday For the following
zones: Bee...Goliad...Live Oak...McMullen...Victoria.
GM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST Friday For the following zones:
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening For the following
zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor.
&&
$$
PH/83...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
953 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
Latest radar trends northwest of Indianapolis suggest this Winter
Storm may not be quite done yet. Culprit is a secondary area of 850-
700 millibar frontogenesis. The main area of frontogenesis was over
northern Kentucky. Both of these gradually move off to the east
overnight and with it should take most of the snow. That said, could
see it linger over the far south into Friday as the upper trough
moves in. Tight surface pressure gradient on the back side of the
departing surface system will keep winds gusting to 30 mph overnight
which will be no help to snow removal crews. Will let the Winter
Storm Warning continue through 1 AM if for nothing else than the
blowing snow and then possibly extend headlines. It will also be
much colder than last night with the Arctic air fully entrenched.
Overnight lows could reach the single digits over northwestern
sections, and with the winds should see below zero wind chills over
all but far southern sections.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 231 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN TONIGHT...
Highlights:
* Highest new totals will be along and south of a
Sullivan...Spencer...Beech Grove...New Castle Line.
* Snow will end from NW to SE this evening and early overnight.
* Very cold temperatures tonight and Saturday morning including
possible sub-zero Wind chill values.
Messaging Recommendations:
* Snow will continue this afternoon and evening...including the
evening rush hours...especially south of I-70. This will result in
continued very difficult travel conditions.
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad trough of low
pressure stretching from West VA across KY and TN to Mississippi.
Strong arctic high pressure was found over MN. These two systems
were providing a cold NE surface flow across Central Indiana. Water
vapor continues to show a broad and large tropical plume of moisture
stretching from eastern TX to the Ohio Valley...providing an ample
moisture source on our cold side of this system. Radar continues to
show widespread echos beneath the plume...with some bright banding
going on across southern Indiana during the middle of the afternoon.
The back edge of precip was found over NW Indiana and NE Illinois.
Models tonight show a continued slow SE progression of our Low
pressure system...allowing the surface high to the northwest to
slowly build SE into the Ohio Valley. HRRR shows the associated
plume and precipitation shield sagging southeast. 290K Isentropic
surface shows up glide ending across our forecast area by
00z...allowing the frontogenesis zone to also drift SE as northerly
flow and decent begins to become more dominate. Thus will keep high
pops for the first few hours of the evening period as ascent looks
to continue for just a bit longer. Again precip will end from NW to
SE late this evening as as dry air begins to arrive and best lift
and forcing departs to the SE. Forecast soundings and time heights
agree...showing a deeply saturated column through 00Z...but dry air
begins to arrive aloft this evening and begins to descend within the
column overnight.
Pressure gradient across the area will continue to provide gusty
winds this evening and given the powdery nature of the
snow...blowing a drifting overnight will remain...although precip
will end. Given the strong cold air advection will trend lows at or
below the NBM.
On Friday...
An upper trough will still be approaching Indiana from the NW...but
by that time...moisture ahead of the system will be diverted well SE
of Indiana toward the Carolinas. Forecasts soundings show dry air
arriving within the column indicating subsidence and dry air.
Meanwhile within the lower levels the arctic surface high over MN
will reorganize through mid mississippi valley and continue to
provide strong cold air advection on north winds. 850mb temps are
expected to be near -8C on Friday morning. Given this and expected
trapped stratocu post this system will trend highs at or below the
NBM. Wind chill values on Friday morning will remain in the negative
single digits.
On Friday Night...
More very cold and dry weather will be expected as the surface ridge
associated with the approaching high to the west extends across
Indiana. Cold air advection continues in to the evening...leading to
850mb temps near -16. given the expected clear skies...light winds
and fresh snow cover...some of the coldest temps of the season may
be reached...below zero. Again will trend temps at or below the NBM
along with clearing skies through the night.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
Dry and cool conditions are expected for the long term period with a
slowly melting snowpack across central Indiana. A frigid start to
the day is expected Saturday morning with sub-zero temperatures
early in the morning which will combine with winds around 10 mph to
create wind chills near -15. Temperatures will only rise into the
upper teens in the north and upper 20s in the south. This
significant north to south temperature spread will continue into the
middle of next week as a result of the snow across the northern
counties limiting the radiational heating.
A weak trough will move through the area Sunday night into Monday
but don`t expect anything other than enhanced cloud cover with
little to no forcing associated the the jet aloft as the majority of
the jet`s energy remains well north in the Upper Great Lakes. The
pattern will begin to shift Tuesday into Wednesday as the next
clipper system starts to move in from the northwest. While
southerly flow returns Wednesday, the connection to the Gulf of
Mexico isn`t quite there with a residual stalled front across the
Southern Gulf states, but even with that flow cut off, WAA should be
strong enough to help temperatures rise above freezing and allow for
faster melting of snow in areas where snow still persists.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
IMPACTS:
- Poor flying conditions may improve to VFR at KLAF after 04z.
However, blowing snow may delay the improvement to the
visibility. Conditions will not improve to VFR at KIND and
KHUF until after 12z Friday and at KBMG until after 15z.
Once again, the caveat may be a delay in the improvement to
the visibility due to blowing snow.
- The snow will end at or shortly after issuance time at KLAF
and not until after 03z at KIND and KHUF and after 15z at
KBMG.
- Winds from 360 to 030 degrees through the TAF period. Wind
speeds to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots will drop off after
04z at KLAF and after 08z-12z at the other sites.
DISCUSSION:
The winter storm will be winding down late tonight and
overnight. Poor flying conditions and the snow will be ending.
However, blowing snow could put a delay in improvement until
the morning.
Winds will continue to gust near to neat 25 knots but decrease
overnight into Friday morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
Update...MK
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...White
Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
858 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022
.UPDATE...
The forecast is on track this evening. South-southeast winds will
become southerly overnight and remain around 10-15 mph at the coast
and 5-10 mph inland under fair skies as some mid level clouds along
and west of Highway 301 lift northward in the southerly low level
flow and then erode well after midnight. Lows will be mild in the
lower 60s to near 60 degrees area wide.
Have been monitoring wind and RH trends at St Simons Island with
winds in the 5-10 mph and RH levels around 90 percent could still
see some potential for patchy sea fog, but none has developed yet.
Any patchy sea fog that forms over the nearshore coastal waters
should stay offshore and advect north and east paralleling the GA
coast late tonight through sunrise per last several runs of the HRRR
model and boundary layer winds turning more southwesterly late this
evening.
A cold front will appraoch from the west on Friday with warm and
breezy conditions ahead of the front with highs near 80 along
I-95 in SE GA and low 80s south along St Johns basin of NE FL with
upper 70s farther inland. Increasing clouds and numerous to
widespread showers will overspread SE GA by midday into the early
afternoon with isolated to scattered storms north of I-10. A small
potential exist for a brief strong to marginally severe storm to
develop over SE GA during peak heating of the day possibly
bringing a threat for wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, but the threat
will dimish quickly as the sun goes down and showers and the front
pushes south and east into NE FL after sunset with shower
coverage dimishing farther south of I-10 through Friday night.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [658 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Breezy Southeast to South winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 35
to 30 mph will continue this afternoon, then drop off to 5 to 10
mph after sunset. Otherwise frontal boundary will continue to
track slowly across the SE US tonight with generally partly cloudy
skies through the overnight hours. Surface winds from the south at
5 to 10 mph will likely be enough to prevent much land based fog
formation, but dewpoints in the lower 60s over-riding the cool sea
surface temps in the mid/upper 50s along the coast from JAX
northward to Brunswick may be enough to produce some patchy sea
fog tonight if a brief lull in the winds can occur. So far Hi-Res
models have slowly backed off any widespread dense sea fog
tonight. Low temps will remain well above normal tonight,
generally around 60 degrees in most locations.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Models in good agreement for broken line of pre-frontal convection
to reach inland portions of SE GA by the late morning, then
potentially intensify during peak heating in the early/mid
afternoon hours across the rest of SE GA and even southward along
the I-10 corridor of North Florida by the late afternoon hours. A
fairly good push in the mid-levels from the West may be enough for
isolated strong/severe storms that briefly bow out with strong
wind gusts of 50-60 mph in the most intense activity, but timing
of the broken squall line will be key if any severe weather can
occur. Otherwise increasing clouds and warm conditions are
expected with Max temps dependent on how early any convection
develops in your location, with mid/upper 70s across inland SE GA
and the Suwannee Valley of North Florida, while widespread lower
80s are expected closer to the I-95 and St Johns River Basin.
While a few lingering storms will be possible during the evening
hours, the loss of heating will dampen any severe threat,
meanwhile numerous shower activity will continue as the actual
cold frontal boundary presses southward through the area and
pushes into Central Florida by sunrise Saturday Morning, rainfall
will subside in coverage across SE GA after midnight. Steady
falling temps are expected behind the frontal boundary as
Northwest to North winds continue at 10-15 mph. Lows will
generally fall into the 40s by Saturday Morning, with a few lower
50s from Ocala to Palm Coast. Saturday will feature breezy
Northeast winds developing which will continue widely scattered
showers along the NE FL Coastal areas, while mainly partly cloudy
and dry conditions will exist inland. Much cooler daytime temps
are expected with lower/middle 50s across SE GA and mid/upper 50s
across NE FL. Low pressure begins to develop off the Florida East
Coast and will continue the breezy/onshore Northeast Flow and
rainfall chances will increase along the I-95 corridor and coastal
areas with scattered to numerous shower activity, while only
isolated showers are expected over inland areas. While some mid to
upper 30s are expected across inland SE GA, elevated winds and
cloud cover will prevent any frost formation, and lows generally
in the 40s are expected elsewhere.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Sunday...Models continue in fair agreement with low pressure
development off the Florida East Coast that will track slowly
towards the North-Northeast and about 100 miles east of JAX by
early Monday Morning. Rainfall coverage and intensity on Sunday
will depend on track of low pressure but overall still expect
breezy onshore/NE winds along the Atlantic Coast with numerous
showers, then lesser winds/rainfall coverage as you track inland
across NE FL/SE GA. Max temps will continue below normal levels in
the lower 50s across SE GA and mid/upper 50s across NE FL and as
mentioned in the Marine section below, likely a high risk of rip
currents at the beaches, along with potential for high surf with
breakers in the 5-7 ft range.
Monday...Again models in fair agreement with a break in between
weather systems as low pressure tracks NE away from the region and
only slight chance of showers is expected at this time while skies
remain Mostly Cloudy and winds become more Northwest to North at
lesser speeds than the weekend. Max temps remain below normal but
slightly above Sunday levels with highs in the lower/middle 50s
across SE GA and upper 50s/lower 60s across NE FL.
Tue/Wed/Thu...Long range models continue to differ on next wave of
energy and low pressure system track along old frontal boundary
across the FL Peninsula and this will impact any sensible weather
and chance for rainfall this period. For now in general, expect
rainfall chances of 30-50% for NE FL on Tue/Wed, with 10-30%
chances for SE GA Tue/Wed with slightly below normal temps and
highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Better agreement that Thursday
may end of being dry as high pressure builds in behind departing
systems and highs return to normal in the 60s.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]
VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period as a cold
front approaches from the west on Friday near the end of the
period. Breezy southeast winds this evening at the coastal TAF
sites will lower slightly to around 10 knots overnight with
lighter values at the inland TAF sites around 5 knots and mid
level clouds 6.0-8.0 kft that formed from convergence along the
gulf coast seabreeze lifts up mainly north and west of the
terminals. Appears any sea fog near the Southeast GA coast will
be patchy due to elevated winds and likely stay offshore of KSSI
overnight. Winds will become southwesterly on Friday after 14Z as
the cold front approaches with increasing clouds in the late
afternoon with southwest winds 10-15 knots expected. Have SHRA and
VCTS at KSSI after 21Z as a broken line of showers and storms
progresses ahead of the cold front moving through the area that
will bring VCSH to the duval county terminals between 21Z-23Z with
overcast mid level clouds encroaching over KGNV and KSGJ to end
the period.
.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the region tonight and Friday, then
cross the waters Friday Night. A few thunderstorms with gusty
winds are possible Friday evening, otherwise Small Craft Advisory
conditions will develop after midnight with strong North winds
becoming Northeast on Saturday as high pressure builds north of
the region. Strong Northeast winds will continue on Sunday as low
pressure develops on old frontal boundary and tracks just East of
the local waters on Monday. Winds and seas subside slightly on
Tuesday as weak high pressure builds into the region from the West.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips continues through Friday with
surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. With the shift to N-NE flow on
Saturday a high risk of rips will be possible along with breakers
building into the 4-7 ft range by Sunday and high surf advisories
may need to be posted.
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals through the weekend are expected to be widespread
0.25" to 0.50" totals with localized 0.75" to 1.25" totals
possible across portions of SE GA. No significant flooding issues
are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 75 40 55 36 / 0 90 70 10 20
SSI 58 72 45 54 44 / 0 60 80 20 50
JAX 60 81 46 56 45 / 0 50 70 20 50
SGJ 60 80 50 59 49 / 0 10 50 20 60
GNV 59 80 49 59 46 / 0 20 50 20 40
OCF 59 83 52 62 48 / 0 10 40 20 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&