Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/29/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
958 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
As a cold front continues to settle southward across the
area, some light snow showers and flurries will continue through the
early evening hours. Tonight, a strong coastal storm will be
forming off the mid Atlantic coast. This storm will spread some
snow and gusty winds for areas from the Hudson Valley on eastward
for late tonight into Saturday, along with very cold temperatures,
as the storm lifts offshore eastern New England. Behind the
departing storm, it will remain cold and blustery with dry weather
into early next week. Temperatures will gradually moderate towards
the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cold and dry air deepening over eastern NY, and with the storm
developing off the Carolinas and mid Atlantic, the northern and
western edge of the precipitation shield will be sharp. Any snow
from the Capital Region west and north would occur around
daybreak at the earliest. Satellite imagery is showing the
expanding upper cloud shield with cooling cloud tops expanding
into Long Island and eastern New England.
So, some temperature adjustments in northern areas as the cold
air advects in steadily. Otherwise, still consistent signal
from upper air data, surface data and some of the newest 00Z
model data to not make many if any changes to the snow
Surface cold front continues to slowly settle southeast across
the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon. This front has been moving very slowly, thanks to a
weak wave of low pressure that developed further south along the
front across Pennsylvania.
Upstream temps and dewpoints over western and central NY have
fallen into the teens with a northerly wind, while temps
continue to remain well into the 20s with a light south wind
across eastern New York. Satellite imagery continues to show
plenty of widespread cloud cover over the area, however,
clearing can be seen over the Adirondacks and this clearing is
starting to slowly spread southward in the wake of the boundary.
Along and ahead of the boundary, there have been some scattered
snow showers and flurries that have been lifting from southwest
to northeast ahead of the front. MRMS continues to show some
light snow showers over northern PA and the Southern Tier of NY
that have been lifting across the area. Most of this activity
has been occurring across the southern half of the area, such
as over the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Capital Region and
western New England. Low-levels are fairly dry and a lot of this
precip is being lost as virga or just not heavy enough to
accumulate. Still, some coating to half inch amounts are
possible for areas that see a steadier snow shower, especially
for the Catskills or Berkshires. The 3KM HRRR suggests the best
chance for these snow showers will be through the late
afternoon hours, as the front continues to push south and
southeast, so the threat for snow showers should be ending
As the front continues to settle southward, the dry northerly
flow will continue to allow for clearing to build south towards
the Mohawk Valley. While the lower clouds will continue to clear
out for central/southern areas, mid/high level clouds will be
expanding from the south as a storm system begins to rapidly
develop off the coast of the mid-Atlantic States for overnight.
The combination of shortwaves within both the northern and
southern streams phasing over the eastern seaboard, along with
favorable jet dynamics, will allow for a rapidly deepening
surface low to form overnight off the coast of the mid-Atlantic
States. While there continues to be some subtle differences in
the model guidance, the same idea remains in place that the
developing surface low will be just far enough south/east to
avoid a major impact on the bulk of the forecast area (NW CT
will be the one exception).
As the low starts to develop, light precip will pushing
northward along the eastern seaboard for tonight. This light
snow will spread across southeastern areas for after the late
evening hours, although it will be running into a lot of dry
air. While it will likely be snowing for Dutchess/Litchfield
County by midnight, it may take until daybreak for any light
snow to reach as far north as the Capital Region/Southern VT.
Initially, precip will be fairly light, so only expecting a
coating to an inch or two by for NW CT or eastern Dutchess
County, NY by sunrise. Northerly winds will be increasing during
the overnight hours. All areas will be seeing sustained
northerly winds of 10 to 15 with some gusts of 15 to 25 mph for
southern areas by the late night hours.
Overnight lows will be very cold across the entire area with
temps falling into the single digits. Temps may fall a few
degrees below zero over the Adirondacks. Wind Chill Values will
be close to -20 F over the Adirondacks by late in the overnight
and a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for those areas.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The rapidly developing storm will be tracking northeast on
Saturday, and will be passing east of Cape Cod before heading
towards western Nova Scotia by Saturday evening. The powerful
storm will deepen as low as 960-970 hpa during the day on
Saturday. Strong frontogenesis will be ongoing over New England
with a heavy mesoscale snow band likely to form. Based on latest
guidance, this heaviest snowband should remain just east of the
area, but the backside of the steady shield of snow should
expand back far enough west to reach close to the Hudson Valley.
Based on the latest guidance, the back edge of the snow shield
may reach the Capital Region, where an inch or two of snow will
occur. Meanwhile, a few inches is expected for the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley, with 2 to 6 inches for the
Taconics, Berkshires and southern VT. Steady and moderate
snowfall is expected for most of the day in NW CT and snow rates
may get close to 1" per hour there for a time on Sat morning.
As a result, a total of 5 to 10 inches is expected for
Litchfield County, with the highest amounts in eastern parts of
the county, before snowfall taper off for Sat aftn/eve.
In addition, the strong pressure gradient will allow for very
strong winds through the day on Saturday. North to northwest
winds will be 10 to 20 mph across the entire area, with some
gusts of 20 to 40 mph, especially for eastern areas. These winds
will leading to blowing/drifting, especially for western New
England. In addition, with temps remaining in the single digits
and teens, wind chill values will remain below zero for much of
the area through the day.
Behind the storm, any precip will be done with skies starting to
clear out for Saturday night. However, gusty northwest winds
will continue across the entire area, with some gusts over 25
mph through Saturday night. With temps falling as low as 10
below to 5 above, wind chill advisories will likely be needed
for many high terrain areas.
High pressure should allow for mostly dry weather for Sunday
into Sunday night with a partly to mostly clear sky. Winds will
decrease through the day on Sunday and be much lighter by Sunday
night. Daytime temps will be in the teens and 20s for Sunday,
with single digits at night.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long-term forecast period will feature a large scale pattern
change that will result in a mean ridge-trough-ridge sequence with
ridging over the eastern Pacific, troughing over the central U.S.,
and ridging over the eastern U.S. extending into the western
Pacific. Flat ridging and southwesterly winds aloft over the local
forecast area will result in a warming trend over eastern New York
and western New England through mid week. However, a couple of cold
fronts associated with a couple of storm systems will result in a
widespread wintry mix followed by a cool down Friday into next
We start off the extended forecast period on Monday with a broad
surface high pressure system centered over Quebec Canada that will
be shifting east-northeastward and strengthening as it departs
further away from the local area/region. There will be a weak
shortwave embedded within this high. However, the influence of the
aforementioned high will be greater than the shortwave and will
result in dry and tranquil conditions for the area Monday into
Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to
low 30s. Overnight lows will be in the single digits to lower teens.
Tuesday into Wednesday, a storm system, the first of two, is progged
to track from central Canada eastward into eastern Canada. Because
this storm system and the forcing associated with it will be well to
our north, much of the area during this time frame should remain
dry, but with quite a bit of cloud cover. Some computer models do
indicate the southern extent of the precipitation shield from this
storm system getting into areas north of Albany (i.e. Herkimer,
Hamilton, Warren, Saratoga, Washington counties). To take into
account this possibility, have included just low chance PoPs (20-
30%) over these areas during this time period. High temperatures on
Tuesday are expected to be in the low to id 30s along the river
valleys. Overnight lows will be in the 20s most places (low 30s
along the Hudson River Valley.
On the heels of this first storm system, will be a second, more
robust storm system brewing over the central U.S. will have the
chance to bring widespread precipitation to the area Wednesday-
Wednesday night into Friday. This storm system has the potential to
come with quite a bit of moisture as potent energy from the northern
stream wave will phase with energy that will be attached to rich
Gulf moisture from the southern stream wave. To put into
perspective of how much moisture will accompany this storm system,
PWAT values from NAEFS are running 1-3 STDEVs above normal and the
GFS has PWATs topping 1 inch over a good portion of our cwa. Given
how dry it`s been across the area (i.e. precipitation values -1.71"
below normal since Dec. 1 and -1.10" below normal since Jan. 1), any
precipitation that we get will be much needed. With temperatures
running above 32F over the valleys, p-types will be mostly in the
form of rain during the day though we could see a transition over to
a rain/snow mix during the nighttime hours (Wednesday and Thursday
night). For the higher elevations, there`s greater confidence in a
rain/snow mix to all snow given the temperature layout. High
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and low to mid 40s along the river valleys, respectively.
Once the cold fronts push through the area in the Thursday evening
to noon Friday timeframe, colder and drier air will advect into the
region. We could see a transition over to all snow for the entire
area Thursday night into Friday amid the cold fropa. High
temperatures on Friday are expected to climb only into the mid 20s
to low 30s along the river valleys with teens over the higher
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...Currently seeing a mix of MVFR and VFR
conditions at this time. With the exception of GFL, expecting
deteriorating condition`s overnight and through the day
tomorrow as a strong cyclone moves up the east coast. GFL should
improve from MVFR to VFR within the next few hours, with VFR
conditions then continuing through the end of the TAF period.
Expecting snow showers to begin at POU between 3-6z, PSF 4-7z,
and ALB after 9z. Snow becomes steadier overnight and tomorrow,
resulting in reductions in visibility to IFR at POU and PSF,
and possible at ALB. Ceilings should remain MVFR at these TAF
sites during the snow. Snow tapers off for ALB around mid-
morning, but will continue into early afternoon at POU and into
the evening at PSF with continued IFR visibilities. After snow
ends, should see visibilities and ceilings improve to mainly
VFR. When all is said and done, expecting 3-6 inches of snow at
POU and PSF with around an inch or two at ALB.
Winds now are currently light and mainly from the
north/northeast. Winds increase out of the northeast overnight
tonight to around 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt after
midnight. Tomorrow, winds continue to increase from the
northeast during the morning at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25
kts at ALB and GFL with gusts of 25-30 kts at POU and PSF.
Tomorrow afternoon, winds shift to the northwest and remain
strong at around 15 kts with gusts around 30kts possible at PSF
and POU (northwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts
at GFL and ALB tomorrow afternoon). Due to the gusty surface
winds, did not mention wind shear in the TAFs, but will note
here that winds at ALB and GFL around 2000 ft will increase to
35+kt at GFL and ALB, and 40+ kt at POU and PSF from the
north/northeast overnight tonight through tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow afternoon, winds at 2000 ft switch to the northwest
with little change in windspeed.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Cold weather will remain in place through the weekend into early
next week, although temps may start to moderate towards the
middle of next week. With the cold temperatures in place, this
should continue to keep plenty of ice in place on rivers and
A winter storm will impact southeastern areas for tonight into
Saturday. Any precipitation with this system will be in the form
of snow, which will have no immediate impact on rivers and
streams. Behind this storm, dry weather is expected through the
middle of next week, which will keep river levels fairly steady.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
CT...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST Saturday night for
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for
Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1037 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Falling temperatures behind the cold front this evening and
tonight, leading to another period of dangerously low wind
chills overnight tonight and again Saturday night. A warming
trend will develop Sunday into the first half of the work week
with quiet weather expected.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1020 PM Update...
Looking at the latest satellite, radar and hi-res guidance
trends have decided to go with a winter weather advisory for
Pike County. Light snow has already overspread our far
southeastern zones, and although there may be a brief 1-2 hour
lull just before midnight, the steady light to occasionally
moderate snow should pivot back in from the east-southeast
during the predawn hours and continue across Sullivan-Pike
county until midday. With around 12 hours of steady light snow
expected, feel the current 2-4 inch range is certainly attainable,
and the most likely forecast at this time. The NNW winds seem to
be upsloping into the Pocono plateau and this could bump
QPF/Snow amounts a little higher across Pike county compared to
surrounding locations. Also factored in to the decision to
issue the advisory are the falling temperatures (to around 10-15
degrees by daybreak) cold wind chills 0-10 below by morning and
increasing NW winds (15-25 MPH, gusts to 30 mph late morning)
which could cause areas of blowing snow.
Otherwise, the latest 02z HRRR is holding course, bring the
light snow shield as far west as Cooperstown--Binghamton--
Tunkhannock for a few hours Saturday morning. Snow amount will
be light on the western edge of this storm, less than 1 inch.
Also added in areas of blowing snow tomorrow afternoon, evening
and night for areas that are forecast to receive more than 1
inch of new snow, combined with wind gusts over 30 mph.
830 PM Update...
Coastal storm is now developing off the NC coast with a
baroclinic leaf beginning to develop on the latest WV/IR
satellite loops. Not much change in the late afternoon/evening
guidance for this system in our area. Snow amounts were bumped
up across Pike and Sullivan counties, now closer to what WPC has
as well. These two zones should see a period of steady light to
occasionally moderate snow rotate in from the SE after midnight,
continuing through midday or early afternoon Saturday. Now
forecasting 2-4 inches southeast of a Monticello--Honesdale--
Avoca line. This does put Pike County PA especially close to
winter weather advisory criteria. Will evaluate the hi-res near
term guidance and consider going with an advisory here if
amounts still look to average over 3 inches. Other considerations
were: strong gusty northwest winds Saturday afternoon and
evening look to peak with gusts 35-45 mph across the higher
elevations of CNY and NE PA...with perhaps the strongest winds
being over the hills of NE PA. Will need to watch this closely
for potential wind advisory criteria being met, as a 975mb low
deepens southeast of New England and a 1024mb high noses into
Ontario...quite the pressure gradient sets up. 850mb winds peak
around 50-55kts over NE PA around 7PM Saturday, with boundary
layer winds pushing 35 kts.
Wind chill advisories looks good tonight into Saturday morning,
with minimum values between 10 to 20 below in most of the
advisory locations...some locally colder values possible across
northern Oneida county. Overnight lows will be quite cold with
single digits above zero for most...except some below zero
values across the higher elevations of CNY and Oneida county.
Staying very cold on Saturday and blustery. High temperatures
hover in the single digits to mid-teens as strong cold air
advection envelops the area and 850mb temps fall to around -18C.
May very well need to extend the wind chill advisory in time and
area into Saturday night as overnight lows dip back down between -5
and +5F and NW winds remain elevated...should see even colder
wind chill values this period compared to tonight. Will hold off
on any expansions for now and let the next shift take another
looks at winds and temperatures, but confidence is increasing.
320 PM Update...
Cold front has push through BGM and is working its way across NE
PA this afternoon. Very cold air mass coming in behind the
front, and it is squeezing out every little bit of moisture
available to it. Expecting light snow to continue across the
Southern Tier and into NE PA into late afternoon to early this
evening. There is also likely going to be some lake effect
flurries behind the front across the Finger Lakes region through
midnight tonight, however very little accumulations is expected.
The main concern will be the very cold airmass that will be in
place over the region the next couple of days. Not only are the
temperatures cold, but the increased pressure gradient from an
intensifying coastal low will increase winds across the region
tomorrow morning. Wind chill advisories remain posted for a
large portion of the region for tonight through tomorrow
morning. Another advisory will likely be needed at some point
for tomorrow night into Sunday morning, as wind chills again dip
below -20F in some areas.
As for the coastal storm that everyone has been focusing on this
past week, models continue to keep the track of the system too
far east for major impacts to our region. However, our far
eastern counties may get brushed by the western snow shield and
possibly see 1-3 inches of snow across the Poconos/southern
Catskills late tonight through Saturday morning, with the top
end of this range likely into far southeastern Pike County PA
and eastern Sullivan County NY. For now, it appears that
snowfall amounts will remain winter weather advisory criteria,
but if the track of the system ends up just 25-50 miles further
west, then advisories would be needed for at least Pike County,
PA and Sullivan County, NY.
Saturday will remain very cold and blustery through the day,
with temperatures topping from upper single digits to mid teens
and winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. As temperatures fall later in
the day Saturday and Saturday night, the winds will ease up a
bit, but another wind chill advisory is likely going to be
needed through Sunday morning as temperatures dip below zero
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM update...
Lake effect snow will continue across the northern Finger Lakes and
into the Mohawk Valley Sunday morning. An approaching shortwave
trough from the west will change the winds from NNW to W by Sunday
afternoon. This will push the lake effect snow into northern
Onondaga and Oneida counties by Sunday afternoon, tapering off by
very early Monday morning. Models are hinting at some low level
convergence across eastern Lake Ontario which could help increase
snow fall across northern Oneida county, but at this time, not
enough evidence is present to bump snow totals up. Currently, 1-2
inches is expected across the northern Finger Lakes, with up to an
inch across northern Onondaga and Oneida counties.
The shortwave that moves into the area Sunday morning may bring some
scattered snow showers to the western counties, but it looks like
weak high pressure over the area will suppress most of the snow
chances south of the lake effect area. A ridge will build into the
area Sunday afternoon through Monday night, bringing quiet weather
conditions and warmer temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be in the
low 20s and the upper 20s by Monday with lows Monday night in the
mid to upper teens.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM update...
High pressure will remain in place over the
area Tuesday, bringing another quiet weather day and warmer
temperatures. Highs in the mid 30s and lows in the lower 30s are
A low pressure system moving through Ontario Wednesday could bring
some scattered rain and snow showers as isentropic lift associated
with warm air advection over the area meets the energy being pushed
through the area from the low.
The next large weather system looks to impact the area on Thursday
into Friday morning. Current model guidance has not come together in
regards to location or timing and the storm will have different
impacts on the CWA depending on the track it takes through the area.
A western track would bring warm Gulf air into the region with highs
on Thursday in the upper 40s and rain showers for most of the day. A
track east of the area keeps the warm air mostly to the east and
colder air and snow would impact the CWA. Because of the highly
variable nature of this system, the NBM was used for the forecast
during this period.
Once the storm moves out of the area Friday morning, another
blast of arctic air will flow into the area, significantly
dropping temperatures from where they were on Thursday.
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Occasional MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions are possible
overnight following the passage of a cold front, along with some
light snow showers. KAVP will be on the western fringe of the
extent of snowfall from the coastal system, but right now, any
IFR restrictions look to remain east of there. Conditions likely
become VFR at all terminals by late morning/early afternoon
Winds will become gusty, especially during the day on Saturday
with occasional gusts up to 20 to 25 kts possible.
Sunday...VFR early, with a weakening system approaching Sunday
night bringing possible restrictions from light snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR conditions under high pressure.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible as low pressure approaches the
region, especially late Wednesday.
PA...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ038-039-
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for PAZ048.
NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-
.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Low pressure is currently situated off the east central coast of
Florida. This low center will begin to deepen overnight and
rapidly move up the eastern seaboard. This weather system will
bring several types of hazards to the CWA along with some small
chances of accumulating snow at the highest elevations.
Accumulating snow: Orographically induced snow showers are
possible across the higher elevations of north Georgia overnight.
Any accumulations will be light, under an inch and mainly confined
to elevations above 2000 feet. The moisture remains very shallow
across north Georgia, but with strong mid level energy/lift moving
across overnight, a few flurries are possible mainly north of the
I-20 corridor. (By definition, flurries do not accumulate.)
Wind Advisory: Sustained winds on the back side of the low
pressure center will continue to increase overnight along with the
gust potential. Have blended some of the MAV guidance in with the
higher res guidance, as it tends to do better in these
situations. The HRRR also has some 30-35mph gusts across the CWA
and it performed very well in the last high wind event. Sustained
speeds between 15 and 20 mph will be likely. Slightly higher
sustained speeds are possible in the mountains. In addition, gusts
to around 35mph or slightly higher are possible across northeast
GA. Elsewhere, frequent gusts to 30-35mph will be likely. Soils
remain very wet across the area, so downed trees and limbs will be
likely with these kind of wind speeds. Even though outside of
northeast GA is a bit more marginal meeting Wind Advisory criteria
due to speeds, will go ahead and expand the Advisory for the
Wind Chill Advisory: Will go ahead and expand the Wind Chill
Advisory a little further westward this afternoon. Cold
temperatures combined with the windy conditions will create Wind
Chills in the single digits for much of north and northwest GA.
Red Flag Warning: MinRH values will dip down into the teens
tomorrow afternoon. With frequent gusts to over 20mph and low fuel
moistures, we will be meeting criteria for Red Flag Warning. This
is has been coordinated with Fire Officials.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
The long term period kicks off with dry conditions courtesy of
northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure at the surface across
the Southeast for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Portions of
eastern-central Georgia could have minimum relative humidity
values just below 25% for several hours and wind gusts between
15-20 mph on Sunday afternoon, which could warrant a Fire Danger
Wednesday and Thursday will bring a transition to a WAA/moisture
advection regime with southerly-component winds at the low- and
mid-levels. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will swing across the
Four Corners and southern Great Plains with a cold front in tow.
Have chance to likely PoPs on Wednesday and likely PoPs on
Thursday. Still leaving thunder out of the grids as progged
instability remains slim to none. In addition, the best forcing
for ascent looks to remain well to our north, so for now there is
no signal for widespread severe weather. PWATs will be well-above-
normal (surging to 1.25" to 1.50" on Wednesday and Thursday) so
periods of heavy rain could be a potential hazard. The QPF for the
period of 00z Wednesday to 18z Friday is 1.00" to 1.75" for much
of the CWA, with 2.00" to 3.00" roughly along and north of a line
from Rome to Canton to Gainesville. The GFS and ECMWF depict the
FROPA occurring Thursday night into Friday morning.
For Monday through Thursday, high temps will run as much as ~10
degrees above average and lows as much as ~20 degrees above
average, courtesy of the WAA/moisture advection regime.
Cigs still showing up as mid level this afternoon and have
delayed the onset of the bkn/ovc MVFR. Some light -sn (flurries)
are possible early this evening. Winds will also begin to pick up
and become very gusty late this afternoon and linger into
tomorrow. Winds will remain on the west side. Rapid clearing after
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence flurries. High confidence remaining elements.
SCT/BKN cloud decks currently over the area with CIGs generally
between 3-6kft, through 05Z with models pushing an MVFR CIGs in
Atlanta area through 10Z. Winds will be blustery out of the
northwest between 10-20 kts with gusts up to 27-33 kts at times
through 22Z tomorrow. Some occasional light snow flurries are
also possible between 02-07Z for the ATL area, but no
accumulations are expected. Rapid clearing after 12Z.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high on MVFR CIGs and snow flurries tonight.
High on all other elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 25 40 22 53 / 20 0 0 0
Atlanta 23 36 25 53 / 10 0 0 0
Blairsville 13 29 17 47 / 30 0 0 0
Cartersville 20 37 20 53 / 10 0 0 0
Columbus 25 43 22 59 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 22 36 22 50 / 30 0 0 0
Macon 27 43 20 58 / 5 0 0 0
Rome 18 38 19 55 / 20 0 0 0
Peachtree City 23 39 20 55 / 10 0 0 0
Vidalia 29 44 23 57 / 5 0 0 0
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM EST Saturday for the
following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for the following zones:
Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Saturday
for the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for the following zones:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
903 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
An upper low pressure system and associated cold front will cross
the region tonight. Dry high pressure will build over the region
from the west through the rest of the weekend. A weak clipper system
will cross the southern Appalachians on Monday, but with limited
moisture. A more potent storm system will arrive from the west mid
to late week with more abundant moisture.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 850 pm EST Friday: Water vapor imagery shows the deep upper
trough just west of the southern Appalachians and poised to move
east across the region overnight. Coastal cyclogenesis is underway
off the NC Outer Banks, but this moisture remains limited to coastal
regions. The main forcing and moisture source for our area will be
with the trough itself, and steepening lapse rates aloft should
permit precipitation rates to increase along and near the I-77
corridor through late evening. Recent HRRR runs are indicating
better reflectivity and snow rates within the Piedmont Winter
Weather Advisory area through midnight. The main limiting factor
thus far has been warm surface wet bulb temperatures, but these are
now cooling quickly late this evening, so no adjustments are planned
to the current Piedmont Winter Weather Advisory. An SPS has been
posted for spotty light accums and freezing temperatures just west
of the advisory. High elevation warning/lower valley advisory
conditions remain on track across the mountains with deep northwest
flow moisture wringing out accumulating snow there. A sharp gradient
of accumulations will persist east of the Blue Ridge and the current
hazard cutoff seems reasonable.
850 mb flow of 40 to 45 kt in the peak cold advection overnight
through Saturday morning will bring advisory gusts to the mountains
and the existing Wind Advisory has this covered. Wind Chill
Advisories exist east of the Winter hazards but these may need to be
expanded throughout the mountains as the winter storm hazards expire
around daybreak. An SPS for black ice may be needed in areas outside
of existing hazards for freezing conditions and wet roadways
overnight as temperatures dip into the teens and 20s.
Gusty winds and cold conditions will continue despite increasing
sunshine in the wake of the trough passage Saturday afternoon, with
highs generally in the 20s in the mountains and 30s east of the
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Friday: The rest of the weekend and into the first
part of the next week looks fair and quiet, in spite of continued
mean mid/upper troffing over the east and the passage of a few short
waves. Weakening high pressure should settle down across the region
Saturday night, giving us one of our coldest nights of the season,
with temps dropping down into the teens across the mtns and out over
the NC foothills/wrn Piedmont. The high moves offshore on Sunday,
though, and temps start to rebound back toward normal. One short
wave should pass overhead late Sunday and the next on Monday, but
most will hardly notice. There could be an increase in clouds on
the TN border Sunday night behind the first wave, and the second
wave should bring some thicker high clouds overhead on Monday. Even
with the higher clouds, temps will probably climb up to a category
or so above normal for highs Monday afternoon. By Monday night,
heights rise as the eastern trof pulls out, establishing a nearly
zonal flow aloft.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 214 PM Friday: Nearly zonal flow aloft on Tuesday will
gradually come around to southwesterly by Wednesday as the next
upper trof digs down over the high Plains and ridging builds off
the Eastern Seaboard. Models suggest this will open up the Gulf
of Mexico for moisture transport into our region, with increasing
precip chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. The first issue is
the onset of light precip early Wednesday morning relative to
low temperatures. Operational runs keep us dry through daybreak
Wednesday while blends incorporate enough alternate scenarios to
introduce a small precip prob over the mtns. If precip begins
that early, however, it will be in concert with strong warm
advection, especially at the high elevations that will stick up
into the developing southerly flow aloft, the implication being
that wintry precip would be unlikely in that event. By Wednesday
afternoon, the models agree with a setup that continues to favor
strong temp/moisture advection from the south and is unfavorable
for cold air damming. From Wednesday night, through Thursday,
into Thursday night, the guidance shows some differences in the
strength and timing of low pressure that develops out ahead of the
mid/upper trof over the Plains, but not the track. Models have
a sfc low moving up to the west of the Appalachians, which has
good support in the ensembles. In this situation, we would remain
un-wedged and warm-sectored, thus open to the possibilities of
severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall, and with above normal
temps. For the time being, the GFS shows very modest sfc-based CAPE
with little support for anything more than a hundred J/kg in the
GEFS, but shear should be impressive on Thursday afternoon as a low
level jet moves overhead. The 12Z ECMWF is similarly unimpressed
thus far. This suggests that perhaps heavy rain might be the bigger
concern, what with model precipitable water over 1.5 inches east
of the mtns on Thursday, which is up in record territory. That
we would lack the protection of cold air damming suggests that we
keep an eye on this situation, but for now confidence is too low
to mention in the HWO. Cold air should move in behind the trailing
cold front Thursday night and into Friday. Model blends naturally
smear out the departure of the precip and the arrival of the cold
air, allowing for a non-specific changeover to snow at the high
elevations early Friday. We retain some low precip chances across
the region for Friday, but a large cool continental high could
easily build in by daybreak and keep Friday dry everywhere.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Steeper lapse rates moving over the deeper
moisture in the NC foothills and Piedmont should lead to briefly
heavier snow showers at KHKY and KCLT this evening before the
activity moves east overnight. Precipitation appears done for the
Upstate TAF sites, with mainly occasional vicinity snow showers
reaching near KAVL through the night in moist northwest flow in the
French Broad Valley. Anticipate occasional IFR to MVFR cigs under
the snow area, but with mostly VFR conditions elsewhere. Gusty north
to northwest winds will get stronger through the night, with G20+ kt
outside of the mountains and G30+ kt at KAVL. Gusty winds will
persist through Saturday, but with clouds scattering and clearing
behind the departing wave of low pressure.
Outlook: Drier high pressure will return through Sunday. Mainly dry
VFR conditions will persist early next week, but with a moist system
beginning to return from the west by Wednesday. Restrictions and
brief mixed precipitation could be possible.
In the wake of low pressure moving away, a very dry air mass
will move into the region on Saturday. Even though temps will
be cold, afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop down
into the teens and lower 20s percent in the afternoon east
of the mountains. Northwest winds will be breezy as well, with
occasional gusts up to around 25 mph through much of the day. Light
precipitation is expected to fall across much of the region
tonight, but failing that, fuels could dry out even more during
the afternoon. Some coordination with land management agencies
might be needed to address the increasing fire danger for Saturday.
GA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ033-048>053-058-
Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet until 7 AM EST
Saturday for NCZ033-048>052-058.
Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet until 7 AM EST Saturday
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ036-037-
Wind Chill Advisory above 3500 feet until noon EST Saturday
SC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for SCZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for SCZ009-014.