Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/28/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the eastern Great Lakes tonight will
drag an arctic cold front across the region. High pressure will
slide into the Ohio Valley late Friday through Saturday, moving
east Sunday allowing a clipper system to progress through the
Great Lakes. High pressure will return early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
At 10 PM the approaching cold front was located across Southeast
Michigan accompanied by a broad area of light snow. A better
band of west to east oriented snow is developing across Central
Lake Erie where there is some enhanced convergence ahead of the
front. We did get a few reports of freezing drizzle in NW Ohio
where mid-level moisture may not have been sufficient for ice
nuclei in the cloud. Continued with a slight chance of freezing
drizzle in the forecast ahead of the front although moisture is
returning aloft and chances will likely diminish over the next
couple hours. Snow will move in off Lake Erie after midnight as
the cold front crosses the lake. The quality of snow may not be
great initially as lift is focused beneath the dendritic growth
zone. Lowered snow ratios initially to account for this. By
morning, flow across Lake Erie will become northeasterly and
focus snow showers across the Cleveland Metro area and perhaps
into north central Ohio. Raised pops into Friday afternoon and
despite moisture decreasing aloft, we can not rule out scattered
snow showers persisting into Friday night as the dendritic
growth zone lowers below 4K feet.
Previous discussion...Mid/upper longwave troughing continues to
dig across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon
downstream of a sharp ridge over the west coast of the U.S. The
leading shortwave is currently analyzed on water vapor loops
over the central Great Lakes and will continue to progress
through the eastern Great Lakes this evening and tonight. This
will drag an arctic cold front southeastward across northern
Ohio and NW PA late this evening through the overnight. An
initial wave of light snow moved through most of the region
early this afternoon tied to the left exit of a 110-115 knot H3
jet over the lower Ohio Valley which is rounding the base of the
shortwave trough. Most of this has exited the west half of the
CWA, but light snow continues east of I-77. A lull in the snow
is still expected behind this initial wave from late afternoon
through most of the evening ahead of the arctic front. It is
during this time when NAM and RAP BUFKIT forecast soundings have
consistently showed a loss of moisture and lift above 5000 feet
or so while deeper moisture persists in the low-levels well
below the DGZ. This supports periods of freezing drizzle which
will lead to slick spots on untreated surfaces. Temps through
the evening will hold in the mid 20s ahead of the front.
For tonight, deeper moisture will return from north to south as the
arctic front crosses the area. An initial west-southwest flow over
Lake Erie will veer westerly around 03Z then northerly in the
roughly 09 to 12Z timeframe. The lake is quickly icing over, but 850
mb temps cooling to -12 to -15 C, open water remaining east of
Cleveland, and strong south shore convergence with the wind shift
will lead to a band of brief, heavy lake-enhanced snow with the
frontal passage. Inversion levels are quite low around 5000 feet,
but BUFKIT soundings depict a surge in Omega within a saturated DGZ
as the arctic boundary crosses, so this gives confidence in a quick
burst of heavy snow. The latest HREF members have a consensus of
this band reaching Erie County PA around 03Z then pushing
south/southwest through the primary and secondary snowbelts of NE
and north central Ohio between 07 and 12Z. This will put down a
quick 1 to 2 inches of snow over a 1 to 2 hour window along with
visibilities dropping to under a half mile at times. However,
confidence on the exact timing of this band is low to medium.
Outside of this lake enhanced band, general light snow will continue
through Friday morning over most areas east of roughly I-71 as the
axis of the mid/upper trough and associated jet support slowly
rotate east. Lows tonight will drop into the low/mid teens over NW
and north central Ohio with upper teens farther east.
By Friday afternoon, the axis of the deep mid/upper trough will be
centered over the Ohio Valley supporting a strong surface cyclone
moving up the east coast late Friday through Friday night. Deep
northerly flow between this Nor`Easter and a 1025 mb arctic
high building east from the Midwest will keep scattered, weak
lake-effect snow showers going across the secondary and primary
snowbelts inland from the lakeshore (mainly in the hills). There
continues to be agreement among HREF guidance for a Lake Huron
connection to bring a little more snow to Lorain, Medina, and
Cuyahoga Counties, but significant ice on Lake Erie,
increasingly anticyclonic flow, drying profiles, and inversion
levels dropping below 5000 feet will keep amounts very light.
Additional accumulations in the aforementioned hills will only
be an inch or less Friday afternoon. The arctic high building
overhead Friday night will shut down any remaining lake- effect,
although east-northeast flow and some rare moisture from Lake
Ontario could keep some flurries going near Erie, PA. Highs
Friday will be limited to the mid/upper teens with lows Friday
night falling into the low single digits and even below zero
again in western areas as skies clear. Wind chill values will
reach or exceed -10 F again in western and southern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We start the weekend cold but largely dry. A north-northeast
flow on the backside of a strong low pressure off the New
England coast may continue some minor lake effect into Saturday
morning into parts of Northeast OH and Erie County PA before
high pressure moves in through Saturday and causes the inversion
to clamp down. For now introduced some <20% POPs for parts of
the Snowbelt Saturday morning. If this lake effect occurs it
should be minor with an inversion height below 5000 feet and an
icy lake, but NAM forecast soundings for KERI show moisture and
a bit of instability and lift through the dendritic growth zone
(DGZ) so can`t rule out some flakes. Elsewhere, it`ll be a dry
but cold Saturday. Highs will probably stay in the 10s.
High pressure slides through quickly Saturday evening. There will be
favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling again the first
half of the night, before clouds and a bit of a pressure gradient
spread in from the west overnight ahead of an approaching clipper
system. Lowered temps a bit east of I-71 for lows Saturday night,
with negative values in the forecast once again for southeastern
portions of our CWA. If the pressure gradient/wind pick up quickly
enough into early Sunday before we start warming up, wind chills may
flirt with advisory criteria east of CLE and BJJ late Saturday night
into early Sunday.
Models are in fairly good agreement in dropping a vort max with a
modest clipper system through the upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. Weak
mid-level warm-air advection / isentropic left beneath the left-exit
quadrant of an upper-level jet streak may be enough to squeeze out
some light snow on Sunday, especially from northern and eastern OH
points east into PA. Most of the operational models have some light
(<0.05" of QPF) and the GFS and Canadian model ensembles have fairly
decent odds of non-zero QPF on Sunday. Forecast soundings from the
NAM and GFS from CLE and CAK points east also indicate weak lift at
times in a saturated DGZ. Given this, brought POPs up to "chance"
for snow on Sunday from roughly CLE and CAK points east, with
"slight chance" added farther south and west. This won`t be anything
exciting but a Coating to 1" is possible in parts of Northeast OH
and Northwest PA with this system as it looks. Pretty small / minor
system so want it to be consistent another couple of cycles before
ramping POPs up too much more. Highs on Sunday a bit more tolerable,
mid to upper 20s. Not cold enough aloft for any lake effect off the
icy lake behind this system Sunday night, so we should dry out as
the synoptic lift exits. Lows Sunday night into the 10s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We start the long term on Monday and through Tuesday with a relative
break in "the weather". Departing high pressure will keep us dry to
start next week, with highs nearing freezing on Monday. If we do
manage to stay a bit below freezing on Monday, we`ll surge past it
on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 40s in the forecast. Showers
may get into the I-75 corridor late in the day Tuesday, but much of
the day will be dry with high pressure and a very dry airmass
gradually departing to the east.
The Tuesday night - Thursday period will turn busy once again.
Deterministically there`s not a ton to say as models and ensembles
are all over the place in terms of when our best windows for
precipitation are and when we`re warm enough for rain, cold enough
for snow, or perhaps seeing mixed precipitation. For now we can say
that likely POPs are in the forecast from late Tuesday night or
early Wednesday through Wednesday night and Thursday. Occasional
precip is likely through that time period. We have rain and some
snow in the grids for that period, but it`s really a fool`s errand
to try to pin down when or where each type will fall at the moment,
so expect refinement. In general, you`re probably more likely to see
snow or mixed precipitation at times the closer to Northwest Ohio
you are and more likely to see rain the farther south and east you
head.
The general set-up is fairly well-agreed upon by our models and
ensemble guidance, with a deep trough carving out into the western
US early-mid week as a ridge builds over the southern and eastern
US. Anomalously warm and moist air will build under the ridge with a
prolonged flow off the Gulf, with Arctic air over Canada and
dropping into the trough to our west...some models show a 1050mb
high dropping into the northern Plains later next week. This will
set-up a sharp frontal boundary / thermal gradient *somewhere* over
or near our region mid-late next week. How the trough ejects out of
the west is what`s not agreed upon consistently on the models and
will make a big difference in our sensible weather. The western
trough ejecting in one piece would likely cause a stronger storm to
cut into the Great Lakes Wednesday or Thursday, bringing us more
warmth and rain than anything else with colder weather returning by
the weekend. However, if the trough comes out in smaller pieces, the
Arctic air pressing in to our north and northwest may push the
frontal boundary far enough south to introduce colder weather and
more wintry precip into at least northern portions of our forecast
area. Regardless of precipitation type, a fair amount of QPF is a
possibility across our area mid-late week. With now-frozen rivers, a
surge of milder air and rain possibly releasing some of the water
contained in our snow pack could cause flooding concerns from ice
jams and increasing run-off into our waterways. Most areas east of I-
71 have over an inch of water in the snow pack, with 2-3"+ of
water held in the snow in the Snowbelt.
We could spend another couple of paragraphs speculating on if we`ll
see any winter / mixed precip issues and / or hydro issues mid-late
next week, but we`ll save it for now until we get some more clarity
on how much precip and when, and in what form it falls. I`ll leave
this with the tidbit that today`s 12z European has high temperatures
in the low-mid 50s on Thursday for our entire area, while 60% of the
European ensemble members have temperatures below freezing at KCLE
at 1 PM Thursday. So, there`s plenty of uncertainty in how this
goes.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Initial round of snow has exited the area with MVFR ceilings in
place at most terminals. A cold front extends across lower
Michigan to South Bend and will settle south into northern Ohio
after 02Z. Scattered snow showers may accompany the front with
the best coverage expected from Cleveland east to Erie after
05Z. Visibilities may occasionally drop to MVFR in snow showers
at eastern terminals with IFR visibilities. The flow will shift
to northeast off Lake Erie by Friday morning and scattered snow
showers may continue at CLE through the morning. Ceilings will
gradually improve to MVFR through the morning on Friday. Winds
will be out of the southwest ahead of the front at 5-10 knots this
evening, veering to north with the passage of the cold front
overnight.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely with occasional snow showers and lower
ceilings Friday afternoon. Non-VFR may return across NE OH and
NW PA late Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty southwest winds will turn north-northeast late tonight into
early Friday as a cold front drops across the lake. Breezy north-
northeast flow then continues across the lake Friday - Friday night
as low pressure moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Winds turn southerly
Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a weak low pressure, with gusty
southerly winds over the lake early next week on strong / persistent
warm air advection. Much of the lake is ice covered and winds are
expected to be sub-gale for the next several days, so no concern for
any marine headlines for the foreseeable future.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...KEC/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022
.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CST THU JAN 27 2022
Key Messages:
- Flurries/light snow looks possible late this evening/overnight across
eastern KS and western MO.
- Trending near to above normal for Saturday - Monday.
- Eyeing the potential for a winter storm mid next week.
Tonight: Surface winds have shifted to the north behind a surface
trough. Colder and drier air will begin to advect into the area this
evening. A clipper system will move southeast across the area
tonight and bring with it a chance for flurries or light snow. This
system will really be fighting the drier air but there appears to be
fairly strong lift around 900mb, at the base of the dendritic growth
layer, that helps to saturate the atmosphere between about 2500 feet
and 10000 feet. With the sounding completely below freezing and good
potential for ice crystal growth, there is at least a chance for
flurries and potentially some light snow. Have added some slight
chance PoPs based mainly on the HRRR and the NAMnest that had this
area of light snow persisting the farthest southeast. Other models
had light precipitation dissipating before making it into the area.
This Weekend - Early Next Week: A broad upper ridge will expand
eastward in the wake of the trough moving through tonight. Our area
will be in northwesterly flow aloft with southwesterly flow in the
lower levels. This will support warmer temperatures Saturday into
Monday. Highs Saturday should be able to climb into the low to mid
50s over eastern KS and western MO as a result. Temperatures will
be stuck in the lower 40s further northeast towards the
Kirksville area. Temperatures will likely cool down a bit for
Sunday with high pressure sitting over the area limiting mixing
potential. Southwesterly low-level flow will kick in again Monday
and allow temperatures to climb into the 50s to near 60 degrees
across much of the area.
Middle of Next Week: Will go ahead and lump Tuesday into this as
it`s a bit of mess, like the rest of the forecast potentially will
be. As the trough that will eventually bring us our mid-week storm
deepens over the Intermountain West on Tuesday, it will lead to
tightening baroclinic zone from the High Plains eastward. This is
where models really begin to diverge and that has really profound
impacts on the forecast. The GFS is further north with this front,
splitting the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. South of the front it
shows temperatures climbing into the 50s with temperatures falling
into the 30s behind the front later in the afternoon. The ECMWF has
already pushed the front south of the area with temperatures 10 to
15 degrees colder. Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the upper wave
begins to move into the Plains, the GFS shows the surface
temperature gradient strengthening with strong mid-level warm
advection being undercut by strong low-level cold advection. Where
there is that warm air aloft, there will be potential for mixed
precipitation and some icing. However, the colder ECMWF has almost
no warm air aloft over the forecast area, favoring more potential
snowfall. With critical temperatures thresholds potentially
sitting right over the forecast area, there remains a large amount
of uncertainty with this system.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST THU JAN 27 2022
VFR conditions are likely for the entire forecast. Scattered to
broken mid and high level clouds will move through the area
through the period. Tomorrow, will need to watch for either low
VFR or MVFR ceilings in eastern KS that could possibly affect the
terminals. Forecast soundings and model relative humidity fields
show higher humidity values, indicating potential for the lower
clouds, in the 2000 to 4000 ft level. Confidence in this affecting
the terminal sites isn`t high enough to mention at this time but
will need to be watched if it shifts east. Winds will be from the
northwest to the north through the forecast and be strongest this
afternoon before diminishing overnight into tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB