Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/26/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
820 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 .DISCUSSION... Latest satellite imagery showing extensive stratus deck through the Snake River Plain this evening and even extending up towards Baker Oregon. Some clearing noted across southern Twin Falls County and into Twin Falls this evening. Trends of the HRRR model and current forecast, keeps this somewhat clear through the evening but brings it back in during the early morning hours. Therefore no updates planned from this afternoons package at this time as models keep the inversion in place the next few days. && .AVIATION... Mostly MVFR to IFR in fog and low stratus, otherwise mostly clear at airports above 6000ft MSL. Fog and low stratus will likely continue to expand across all valley locations overnight. Surface winds: variable 10kt or less. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NE 10-20kt becoming N-NW 15-25kt by 12z/Wed. && .AIR STAGNATION... A dry northerly aloft will persist through Thursday, followed by an upper ridge Friday and Saturday. The inversion will continue through the period and likely strengthen with the arrival of the ridge later in the week. The inversion will finally completely break early next week as a low pressure system moves into the region. An Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect for Harney County through Friday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A dry north- northwest flow aloft will continue through the period as an upper ridge off the west coast slowly moves inland. The inversion and resultant low stratus/patchy late night-morning fog will persist. Little day-to-day changes to temperatures are anticipated, averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Winds will be generally light (less than 10 mph). LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge will remain over the region and maintain the temperature inversion through the weekend, with areas of low clouds, patchy fog, and below normal temperatures in the valleys. A trough will move south out of the Gulf of Alaska on Monday, bringing a cold front through the region. Snow levels will fall to the valley floors with scattered snow showers continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal across the valleys, with above normal temperatures across the higher elevations until the cold front arrives on Monday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday ORZ061. && $$ DISCUSSION...CR AVIATION.....AL AIR STAGNATION...BW PREV SHORT TERM...BW PREV LONG TERM....KA
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
816 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight, followed by cold high pressure settling into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front and associated coastal low will develop Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 816 PM Tuesday... AS of 01Z, the sfc cold front was located roughly along or just west of the I-85 corridor and will continue to gradually shift south overnight and will be to our east well before daybreak. No precip is expected with its passage. N to NE low level flow will develop behind the front (speeds around 6-10kt with a few higher gusts), with CAA underway as a 1036 MB high centered over the northern Plains begins to move southeastward. As of 8 PM, current temps are in the 40s across central NC. Look for readings to gradually fall through the mid and upper 30s overnight, with perhaps sub-freezing temps spreading southward along the I-95 corridor (thanks to N-NE sfc winds and CAA) during the last few hours just before daybreak. Lows tonight will range from 32-34 west to 28-32 east. Otherwise, latest HRRR shows a layer of 5K ft AGL stratocu developing and spreading southeastward just behind the front overnight. This will have little impact on the temps since tonights temps will be mostly dependent on CAA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Tuesday... A mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes and upstate NY will move off the North Atlantic Wednesday evening, followed by weak mid- level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic by early Thursday. At the surface, the 1035 mb arctic high pressure system over MO will drift east and settle over the Mid-Atlantic into early Thursday. Low-level thicknesses behind the front will be 1280-1300m, resulting in a much colder day and temperatures around 10-13 degrees below normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The low-level RH evident in forecast soundings will favor morning low clouds, though sunshine should start to work in for the afternoon hours. As high pressure settles in Wednesday night, good radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds under the arctic airmass, will promote temperatures well below normal in the upper teens to lower 20s in most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... ...Persistent trough Over the Eastern US will result in a chilly end to January 2022... ...Another round of wintry weather/snow late Friday through early Saturday.... Thursday and Thursday night: In advance of the strong upper level trough digging into the Central US, another low-amplitude southern stream shortwave will become increasingly sheared as it ejects through the SE US. This disturbance aloft could produce some scattered thin mid/high clouds across southern NC during the day, followed by a marked increase in clouds Thursday night. Though weakening/modifying, the cold surface high pressure will linger across the area through Friday morning. Continued chilly, with highs ranging from upper 30s/near 40 north to mid south. Lows in the 20s. Friday and Friday night: Models are coming into better agreement and thus forecaster confidence is increasing. The upper trough over the central and eastern US will reload as yet another strong, amplifying shortwave trough dives SE, potentially deepening into a closed upper low as it moves through the Carolinas late Friday/early Saturday. In response to the incredibly strong synoptic scale ascent, sfc cyclogenesis will quickly spin up off the Florida coast Friday morning and will start to undergo rapid deepening and quite possibly bombogenesis late Friday night/early Saturday as it races north, well off the NC coast. Since there is now increasing model agreement that the low will be well offshore, the onset of rain/precip has slowed down considerably, delayed until the afternoon when BL temps and surface wet bulb temps are above freezing. In fact, it`s entirely possible that central NC could see very little rain from the actual coastal low. Instead, the bulk of lift and precip will be associated with the trailing, amplifying/deepening northern stream trough that will overspread the area from the west/northeast Friday evening/ night, coincident with a surface cold front that will move through the area. Latest runs of the EC and Canadian now suggest that the trough will close off across central NC as it moves through the area Friday night. The resultant deep column cooling will result in a fairly efficient change-over from rain to snow, with any transition p-type of freezing rain/sleet being very short-lived and inconsequential. Very preliminary snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible, highest across north/northeast NC. Stay tune. Saturday: Any lingering snow across the NE coastal plain will exit shortly after daybreak. Expect cold and blustery conditions in the wake of the deepening coastal low lifting up the northern Atlantic coast with another shot of cP air into the SE US. Clouds should scattered out with sunshine returning from west to east during the late morning and into the afternoon. Highs ranging from lower 30s NW to upper 30s/near 40 SE. Very cold Saturday night, especially in areas of solid snow cover. Lows ranging from lower teens north to upper teens south. Sunday through Tuesday: A clipper-style diving through the mid- Atlantic region may produce some cloudiness on Thursday. Otherwise, mid/upper levels heights will rebound early next week. After another chilly day on Sunday, temps will quickly moderate to above normal Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 712 PM Tuesday... Through 00Z Thursday: VFR conditions are currently found across all of central NC, and are expected to remain that way through at least 08Z overnight. In the meantime, a cold front is moving across the region ATTM, so we`ll see current light and variable winds become NW 10-15 kt between 00Z and 04Z...becoming NE after 04Z. When that happens, a layer of MVFR clouds may develop and move south across portions of central NC, with RDU/FAY/RWI most likely seeing these clouds. Then look for any MVFR conditions to lift to VFR by 14Z Wednesday, then remaining VFR through the rest of the TAF period. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. An approaching storm system on Friday night into Saturday could bring sub-VFR conditions in potential wintry precipitation. VFR conditions are expected to return Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...CBL