Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/25/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
902 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Light snow continues over far southwest North Dakota this evening, as seen on the Bowman ARB radar and ND DOT road cameras. Recent high-res guidance runs keep light snow in this area until early Tuesday morning, and POPs were adjusted to match. Temperatures and wind chills continue to fall, and headlines remain in good shape. UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Light snow continues over Bowman county this evening, as a 925-850mb baroclinic zone lingers. This baroclinic zone will gradually push southwest through the night as cold air continues to move in, with light snow chances continuing into late this evening until this front exits the area. Adjusted snow chances this evening based on RAP lower level theta-e gradient progression. Wind chill headlines remain in good shape this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Temperatures have failed to rise much, if at all today, due to Arctic Canadian high pressure that continues filtering colder air into the region. In addition, skies have been continuously clearing across the forecast area and are expected to be nearly all clear by Tuesday morning. A few lingering light snow showers or flurries continue over far southwestern North Dakota, but should abate within the next few hours. Aforementioned high pressure will dig further south tonight and become centered over central North Dakota Tuesday morning. The NBM doesn`t fully produce calm winds, but expect they are likely to occur during the morning hours, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area. Therefore, used HRRR winds from 6 to 18Z to realize this in the forecast. In addition, due to lowering wind speeds a few mph, also lowered temps for central North Dakota where these lightest winds are expected to occur. The result being lows near 30 below in north central North Dakota to near 0 in southwestern North Dakota. Overall, expect very cold wind chills tonight through Tuesday night, with the coldest wind chills residing over central North Dakota Tuesday morning. Inherited headlines have been left in place with a Wind Chill Warning tonight through Tuesday morning for most of the eastern and northern forecast area. A Wind Chill Advisory is in place for another tier of counties further west of the Wind Chill Warning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 The extended period will feature a common pattern as of late, where a west CONUS ridge and east CONUS trough dominate resulting in northwestern flow aloft for the area. This tends to produce warmer air in southwestern North Dakota and cooler air to the north and east. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as a whole with highs peaking out in the 30s across most of the area, although this weekend will likely be the warmest for the southwestern part of North Dakota when the warm/cold southwest to northeast divide is the most prevalent. Another result of northwest flow is multiple shortwaves that could create further precipitation chances. The initial one being Wednesday night with additional chances possible towards the tail end of the weekend. Wednesday will feature gusty westerly winds, especially in the eastern and northern forecast area, as high pressure previously over the region moves to the southeast and the pressure gradient tightens. As of now, it appears the tightest pressure gradient for most of the area will actually occur Tuesday night. If so, then by the day Wednesday, the gradient will loosen a bit over the area. This would result in less than ideal timing for maxing out the wind gust potential. That said, depending on how things evolve over the next couple days, just how strong the winds become are still in question. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Generally VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period, though can`t rule out some patchy fog developing early Tuesday morning. VFR cloud cover remains over southwest North Dakota, and will erode to the southwest through the night. Some very isolated MVFR ceilings may be found in this cloud cover, but mostly VFR. SKC expected Tuesday with 5-15 kt westerly winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001-009-017>020-034-046. Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for NDZ002>005-010>013- 021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...Telken LONG TERM...Telken AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
830 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 It seems to me our forecast is on track. We do have that snow band near the Lake Michigan shore from north of TVC to near LWA, developing and strengthening as I write this. Looking at our regional composite radar image loop, and in combination with that the IR image loop is is now clear we have dominant snow band developing from near the Leelanau Peninsula, across Big and Little Sable Point to just off shore of Holland, coming on shore near Glenn is southern Allegan County. LDM in the past 2 hours has had periods of heavy snow. The MiDrive map shows major slow downs along US-31 from Ludington to Whitehall and from just south of Holland to South Haven. Cloud tops are cooling quickly over the northern 1/3 of the band, and based on a combination of model sounding and IR cloud to temperature, the snow showers may be as deep as 8000 ft. The latest RAP model shows the strong lift in the DGZ is currently over our northern CWA, however between 1 am and 3 am it should shift to the southern CWA. This leads me to believe our Advisory remains largely on target. Maybe one could say Muskegon County is less threatened now but winds turn more northwest Tuesday, so they will likely see the better snows there then. My bottom line is our forecast looks on track as it is now. So, no changes are expected. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 258 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 - Cold with snow showers Tuesday and another clipper on Thursday CLipper moving east this afternoon and synoptic, lake enhanced snow tapering off and transitioning to northwest flow lake effect snow showers tonight. Current advisory is on track and no changes made. We expect another 2 to 4 inches across the southwest zones with accums limited by a shallow dendritic growth zone near the ground and inversion heights at or below 5 kft. The snow showers taper off later Tuesday night as heights rise and warm advection begins. Snow returns for Thursday as another clipper/arctic front moves through with a similar scenario of what we have just experienced. The flow goes northerly behind the passage of the clipper so lake effect snow should be limited to very near the Lake Michigan coast. With northerly flow, some clearing is possible which would allow temperatures to plunge below zero Friday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 651 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 This is a hard forecast since we will have persistent snow showers into Wednesday near and west of US-131, more so US-31. Timing of the snow showers is problematic at best. The timing in the TAFs are largely based on the NAMNEST and HRRR 18z model runs. Truth is for locations like MKG they could be LIFR at times into Wednesday but timing that is beyond our skill. It does seem MKG should be near the snow shower band most of the time from 06z on into Wednesday. Anther issue we face is the north northwest winds into Tuesday evening. That typically clears the sky inland of US-131. That would suggest GRR, LAN, and JXN may go clear between 08z and 15z. Once the sun comes up and heats the air cumulus clouds should for form (model sounding show this ) and given the DGZ is in the cloud layer, snow showers would be more than possible at all of these locations, so while not in the TAFs, know they are more than possible. As for AZO and BTl, we have that I-94 convergence zone issue and just how that plays out will determine where those snow showers go. While the wind will be north northwest in that area too, we have the cold air around the bottom of the lake trying to bend the southern end of the snowband to the right (east). I have them mostly VFR after 06z but I could see the snow showers coming in and out of that area too. The bottom line to all of this is I would think after 06z most of our inland TAF sites will be VFR most of the time (except of the hit and miss snow showers in the afternoon). However, it could well be MVFR, and IFR will happen at any of our TAF sites (JXN least likely to see this) into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Much of the week will see winds and waves being hazardous to small craft as well as freezing spray and increasing amounts of ice on the river outlets and shore. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...WDM MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 ...Widespread snow tomorrow, but how much?... Currently... Another nice day across the region. Temps on the plains ranged from the mid 40s to mid 50s, while in the san Luis valley the temps ranged in the mid 30s where there is snow on the valley floor to mid 40s where there is no snow. Mtns were generally in the teens and 20s. Except for some high cloudiness here and there, skies were mostly sunny. On the larger scale, the system which promises to bring us widespread light snow to the fcst area was up over ID/W MT and was pushing south-Southeast. Discussion... Not an easy forecast! All the guidance indicates that it is going to precipitate, but how much is the concern. Based on the guidance, the main disagreement appears to be on how strong a 700 mb low center is going to be on the plains tomorrow. The HRRR is pretty gung-ho with this feature and it has the potential for some heavier precip along and just east of the I-25 corridor (especially the southern corridor) while the other guidance products are not as strong with this low center. Give the synoptic set-up (trough dropping due south across UT), I am leaning against the HRRR guidance and leaning more with the ensemble output. The overall best chance of snow will be across the eastern slopes of our eastern mtns, with a secondary max over eastern Kiowa county. If the HRRR should be correct and the 700 mb flow is a bit stronger (and better upslope), then the northern El Paso county and the east slopes of the mtns may see heavier amounts than what is currently in the forecast. I plan to emphasize to the evening crew that the fcst may have to be adjusted upward if trends in the HRRR materialize. Tonight... Clouds will be on the increase most areas, with the far eastern plains seeing some low clouds developing while the rest of the area sees gradually increasing high clouds. temps tonight will be in the 20s plains and single digits valleys with 10s mainly in the mtns. We will likely see a weak east wind through the night lower elevations. Cant rule out some very light precip over the plains east of the interstate tonight, but it will likely not be measurable. Tomorrow... Expect to see snow beginning across the central mtns late tonight and then moving into the Palmer Divide by sunrise. initially, the best banding is likely going to set up over the Palmer Divide and then extend east-southeast into Kiowa county. By late morning expect to see steady snow over N El Paso and parts of the northeaster sections of the southeast plains (E Kiowa county). As the afternoon progresses, things have the potential to get interesting per earlier discussion. If the 700 mb circulation does wrap up then the potential for more heavier snow will occur on the east facing slopes of the mtns with bands of snow occurring from KLHX down the KTAD. if this feature is weaker, these areas will still see snow, but lesser of it. For now, all of the plains has accumulating snow forecasted, with the heavies amounts on the plains over the far east plains across Kiowa county. 4-8 amounts are noted over the east slopes of the mtns while generally 1-4 inches is fcst over the plains (with the least of S El Paso and N Pueblo counties). /Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Key Messages: 1) Winter weather is possible Thursday, with the mountains having the greatest chance at this time of seeing snow. Wednesday... A quiet mid week is expected before the next system. The short wave that will bring inclement to southern Colorado Tuesday will begin exiting the region. Behind this feature, subsidence will increase and synoptic conditions unfavorable for precipitation. Lingering snow still present during the morning is expected to dissipate from the north to south, with most, if not all, precipitation gone by the afternoon. Skies will also slowly clear out during the day, with some high cirrus still likely. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average across the forecast area. The plains will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s, the valleys rising into the 30s, and the mountains reaching into the 10s and 20s. Thursday... The next active weather day arrives during Thursday. A trough will start to dig southward across the Colorado area during the day. As the trough digs over the region, synoptic level support and dynamics will increase over southern Colorado. Mid to upper level winds will also rise in magnitude, strengthening orographic forcing over the mountains. Closer to the surface, a cold front will drop southward during the day. Winds behind this front are expected to maintain a mostly northerly component, though weak northeasterly winds are possible along and west of the I25 corridor. With the synoptic level aid and the stronger orographics, snow is expected to develop over the mountains during the day as this system pushes to the southeast. Currently, moisture quality looks more limited for this system, so snow totals will likely be lighter, with totals 1-3 inches for the mountains. Given the possibility of modest surface upsloping along the eastern mountains though, slightly higher totals will be possible along those terrain features. Also given the stronger synoptic dynamics and the possibility of surface upsloping, lighter stratiform snow may also develop further out over the eastern plains, though snow totals are anticipated to be less than 1 inch. Precipitation will quickly dissipate during the overnight hours, as the trough quickly pushes out of the region. Friday - Monday... The rest of the long term period is expected to remain quiet weather wise, with a caveat though. The GEFS and EPS ensembles are still in agreement that a ridge of high pressure builds across the western US and maintains a dominant presence. This feature will keep precipitation chances low across the Pueblo forecast area. A warming trend will also be expected, with temperatures likely warming to above average values for this time of year. The caveat remains with the rogue system drifting in the overall synoptic flow. The ensemble and deterministic models seem to have come into better agreement that a cutoff-low will develop late Saturday near southern California and push eastward during Sunday into Monday. As of now, this low appears to remain far enough south of southern Colorado to be no real major influence. With that said though, if this feature were to drift or develop further north than currently shown, then the influence of this feature would be greater and precipitation chances would increase and temperatures cooled down for around the Sunday timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Snow is likely starting tomorrow at all the taf sites. It will develop at KCOS by mid morning, KPUB by early afternoon and KALS by late afternoon. Accumulating snow is likely but amounts are expected to be light. MVFR conditions are near certain, with IFR possible due to the lower cigs. Given a N component to the wind, conditions are not expected to get too messy at KCOS as cigs should stay in the 020- 030 range. Cigs could get down to LIFR at KPUB later in the day. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for COZ095-096-098. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 2 AM MST Wednesday for COZ072>075-079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH