Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
902 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Light snow continues over far southwest North Dakota this evening,
as seen on the Bowman ARB radar and ND DOT road cameras. Recent
high-res guidance runs keep light snow in this area until early
Tuesday morning, and POPs were adjusted to match. Temperatures and
wind chills continue to fall, and headlines remain in good shape.
UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Light snow continues over Bowman county this evening, as a
925-850mb baroclinic zone lingers. This baroclinic zone will
gradually push southwest through the night as cold air continues
to move in, with light snow chances continuing into late this
evening until this front exits the area. Adjusted snow chances
this evening based on RAP lower level theta-e gradient
progression. Wind chill headlines remain in good shape this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Temperatures have failed to rise much, if at all today, due to Arctic
Canadian high pressure that continues filtering colder air into
the region. In addition, skies have been continuously clearing
across the forecast area and are expected to be nearly all clear
by Tuesday morning. A few lingering light snow showers or flurries
continue over far southwestern North Dakota, but should abate
within the next few hours.
Aforementioned high pressure will dig further south tonight and
become centered over central North Dakota Tuesday morning. The NBM
doesn`t fully produce calm winds, but expect they are likely to
occur during the morning hours, especially over the eastern half
of the forecast area. Therefore, used HRRR winds from 6 to 18Z to
realize this in the forecast. In addition, due to lowering wind
speeds a few mph, also lowered temps for central North Dakota
where these lightest winds are expected to occur. The result being
lows near 30 below in north central North Dakota to near 0 in
southwestern North Dakota.
Overall, expect very cold wind chills tonight through Tuesday
night, with the coldest wind chills residing over central North
Dakota Tuesday morning. Inherited headlines have been left in
place with a Wind Chill Warning tonight through Tuesday morning for
most of the eastern and northern forecast area. A Wind Chill
Advisory is in place for another tier of counties further west of
the Wind Chill Warning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
The extended period will feature a common pattern as of late,
where a west CONUS ridge and east CONUS trough dominate resulting
in northwestern flow aloft for the area. This tends to produce
warmer air in southwestern North Dakota and cooler air to the
north and east. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as a whole
with highs peaking out in the 30s across most of the area,
although this weekend will likely be the warmest for the
southwestern part of North Dakota when the warm/cold southwest to
northeast divide is the most prevalent. Another result of
northwest flow is multiple shortwaves that could create further
precipitation chances. The initial one being Wednesday night with
additional chances possible towards the tail end of the weekend.
Wednesday will feature gusty westerly winds, especially in the
eastern and northern forecast area, as high pressure previously
over the region moves to the southeast and the pressure gradient
tightens. As of now, it appears the tightest pressure gradient
for most of the area will actually occur Tuesday night. If so,
then by the day Wednesday, the gradient will loosen a bit over the
area. This would result in less than ideal timing for maxing out
the wind gust potential. That said, depending on how things
evolve over the next couple days, just how strong the winds become
are still in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Generally VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period,
though can`t rule out some patchy fog developing early Tuesday
morning. VFR cloud cover remains over southwest North Dakota, and
will erode to the southwest through the night. Some very isolated
MVFR ceilings may be found in this cloud cover, but mostly VFR.
SKC expected Tuesday with 5-15 kt westerly winds.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001-009-017>020-034-046.
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...Telken
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
830 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022
It seems to me our forecast is on track. We do have that snow band
near the Lake Michigan shore from north of TVC to near LWA,
developing and strengthening as I write this.
Looking at our regional composite radar image loop, and in
combination with that the IR image loop is is now clear we have
dominant snow band developing from near the Leelanau Peninsula,
across Big and Little Sable Point to just off shore of Holland,
coming on shore near Glenn is southern Allegan County. LDM in the
past 2 hours has had periods of heavy snow. The MiDrive map shows
major slow downs along US-31 from Ludington to Whitehall and from
just south of Holland to South Haven. Cloud tops are cooling
quickly over the northern 1/3 of the band, and based on a
combination of model sounding and IR cloud to temperature, the
snow showers may be as deep as 8000 ft.
The latest RAP model shows the strong lift in the DGZ is currently
over our northern CWA, however between 1 am and 3 am it should
shift to the southern CWA. This leads me to believe our Advisory
remains largely on target. Maybe one could say Muskegon County is
less threatened now but winds turn more northwest Tuesday, so they
will likely see the better snows there then.
My bottom line is our forecast looks on track as it is now. So,
no changes are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022
- Cold with snow showers Tuesday and another clipper on Thursday
CLipper moving east this afternoon and synoptic, lake enhanced
snow tapering off and transitioning to northwest flow lake effect
snow showers tonight. Current advisory is on track and no changes
made. We expect another 2 to 4 inches across the southwest zones
with accums limited by a shallow dendritic growth zone near the
ground and inversion heights at or below 5 kft. The snow showers
taper off later Tuesday night as heights rise and warm advection
begins.
Snow returns for Thursday as another clipper/arctic front moves
through with a similar scenario of what we have just experienced.
The flow goes northerly behind the passage of the clipper so lake
effect snow should be limited to very near the Lake Michigan
coast. With northerly flow, some clearing is possible which would
allow temperatures to plunge below zero Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022
This is a hard forecast since we will have persistent snow
showers into Wednesday near and west of US-131, more so US-31.
Timing of the snow showers is problematic at best. The timing in
the TAFs are largely based on the NAMNEST and HRRR 18z model runs.
Truth is for locations like MKG they could be LIFR at times into
Wednesday but timing that is beyond our skill. It does seem MKG
should be near the snow shower band most of the time from 06z on
into Wednesday.
Anther issue we face is the north northwest winds into Tuesday
evening. That typically clears the sky inland of US-131. That
would suggest GRR, LAN, and JXN may go clear between 08z and 15z.
Once the sun comes up and heats the air cumulus clouds should for
form (model sounding show this ) and given the DGZ is in the cloud
layer, snow showers would be more than possible at all of these
locations, so while not in the TAFs, know they are more than
possible.
As for AZO and BTl, we have that I-94 convergence zone issue and
just how that plays out will determine where those snow showers
go. While the wind will be north northwest in that area too, we
have the cold air around the bottom of the lake trying to bend
the southern end of the snowband to the right (east). I have them
mostly VFR after 06z but I could see the snow showers coming in
and out of that area too.
The bottom line to all of this is I would think after 06z most of
our inland TAF sites will be VFR most of the time (except of the
hit and miss snow showers in the afternoon). However, it could
well be MVFR, and IFR will happen at any of our TAF sites (JXN
least likely to see this) into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022
Much of the week will see winds and waves being hazardous to small
craft as well as freezing spray and increasing amounts of ice on
the river outlets and shore.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022
...Widespread snow tomorrow, but how much?...
Currently...
Another nice day across the region. Temps on the plains ranged from
the mid 40s to mid 50s, while in the san Luis valley the temps
ranged in the mid 30s where there is snow on the valley floor to mid
40s where there is no snow. Mtns were generally in the teens and
20s. Except for some high cloudiness here and there, skies were
mostly sunny.
On the larger scale, the system which promises to bring us
widespread light snow to the fcst area was up over ID/W MT and was
pushing south-Southeast.
Discussion...
Not an easy forecast! All the guidance indicates that it is going to
precipitate, but how much is the concern. Based on the guidance, the
main disagreement appears to be on how strong a 700 mb low center is
going to be on the plains tomorrow. The HRRR is pretty gung-ho with
this feature and it has the potential for some heavier precip along
and just east of the I-25 corridor (especially the southern
corridor) while the other guidance products are not as strong with
this low center. Give the synoptic set-up (trough dropping due south
across UT), I am leaning against the HRRR guidance and leaning more
with the ensemble output. The overall best chance of snow will be
across the eastern slopes of our eastern mtns, with a secondary max
over eastern Kiowa county.
If the HRRR should be correct and the 700 mb flow is a bit stronger
(and better upslope), then the northern El Paso county and the east
slopes of the mtns may see heavier amounts than what is currently in
the forecast. I plan to emphasize to the evening crew that the fcst
may have to be adjusted upward if trends in the HRRR materialize.
Tonight...
Clouds will be on the increase most areas, with the far eastern
plains seeing some low clouds developing while the rest of the area
sees gradually increasing high clouds. temps tonight will be in the
20s plains and single digits valleys with 10s mainly in the mtns. We
will likely see a weak east wind through the night lower elevations.
Cant rule out some very light precip over the plains east of the
interstate tonight, but it will likely not be measurable.
Tomorrow...
Expect to see snow beginning across the central mtns late tonight
and then moving into the Palmer Divide by sunrise. initially, the
best banding is likely going to set up over the Palmer Divide and
then extend east-southeast into Kiowa county. By late morning expect
to see steady snow over N El Paso and parts of the northeaster
sections of the southeast plains (E Kiowa county).
As the afternoon progresses, things have the potential to get
interesting per earlier discussion. If the 700 mb circulation does
wrap up then the potential for more heavier snow will occur on the
east facing slopes of the mtns with bands of snow occurring from
KLHX down the KTAD. if this feature is weaker, these areas will
still see snow, but lesser of it. For now, all of the plains has
accumulating snow forecasted, with the heavies amounts on the plains
over the far east plains across Kiowa county. 4-8 amounts are noted
over the east slopes of the mtns while generally 1-4 inches is fcst
over the plains (with the least of S El Paso and N Pueblo counties).
/Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022
Key Messages:
1) Winter weather is possible Thursday, with the mountains having
the greatest chance at this time of seeing snow.
Wednesday... A quiet mid week is expected before the next system.
The short wave that will bring inclement to southern Colorado
Tuesday will begin exiting the region. Behind this feature,
subsidence will increase and synoptic conditions unfavorable for
precipitation. Lingering snow still present during the morning is
expected to dissipate from the north to south, with most, if not
all, precipitation gone by the afternoon. Skies will also slowly
clear out during the day, with some high cirrus still likely.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below average across the
forecast area. The plains will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s, the
valleys rising into the 30s, and the mountains reaching into the 10s
and 20s.
Thursday... The next active weather day arrives during Thursday. A
trough will start to dig southward across the Colorado area during
the day. As the trough digs over the region, synoptic level support
and dynamics will increase over southern Colorado. Mid to upper
level winds will also rise in magnitude, strengthening orographic
forcing over the mountains. Closer to the surface, a cold front will
drop southward during the day. Winds behind this front are expected
to maintain a mostly northerly component, though weak northeasterly
winds are possible along and west of the I25 corridor. With the
synoptic level aid and the stronger orographics, snow is expected to
develop over the mountains during the day as this system pushes to
the southeast. Currently, moisture quality looks more limited for
this system, so snow totals will likely be lighter, with totals 1-3
inches for the mountains. Given the possibility of modest surface
upsloping along the eastern mountains though, slightly higher totals
will be possible along those terrain features. Also given the
stronger synoptic dynamics and the possibility of surface upsloping,
lighter stratiform snow may also develop further out over the
eastern plains, though snow totals are anticipated to be less than 1
inch. Precipitation will quickly dissipate during the overnight
hours, as the trough quickly pushes out of the region.
Friday - Monday... The rest of the long term period is expected to
remain quiet weather wise, with a caveat though. The GEFS and EPS
ensembles are still in agreement that a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western US and maintains a dominant presence. This
feature will keep precipitation chances low across the Pueblo
forecast area. A warming trend will also be expected, with
temperatures likely warming to above average values for this time of
year. The caveat remains with the rogue system drifting in the
overall synoptic flow. The ensemble and deterministic models seem to
have come into better agreement that a cutoff-low will develop late
Saturday near southern California and push eastward during Sunday
into Monday. As of now, this low appears to remain far enough south
of southern Colorado to be no real major influence. With that said
though, if this feature were to drift or develop further north than
currently shown, then the influence of this feature would be greater
and precipitation chances would increase and temperatures cooled
down for around the Sunday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022
Snow is likely starting tomorrow at all the taf sites. It will
develop at KCOS by mid morning, KPUB by early afternoon and KALS by
late afternoon. Accumulating snow is likely but amounts are expected
to be light. MVFR conditions are near certain, with IFR possible due
to the lower cigs. Given a N component to the wind, conditions are
not expected to get too messy at KCOS as cigs should stay in the 020-
030 range. Cigs could get down to LIFR at KPUB later in the day.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for
COZ095-096-098.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 2 AM MST Wednesday
for COZ072>075-079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH