Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/24/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
747 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 736 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Another fast moving weather system will move through the region tonight and Monday, bringing a chance of light snow. A few inches of snow is possible over northern Illinois, with areas close to I-74 seeing a dusting of snow. Much colder air will arrive behind this system from Monday night through Wednesday night, with dry weather prevailing. && .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Area of light snow is tracking southeast across eastern Iowa this evening, though surface observations suggest this is mainly north of I-80 currently. A fairly substantial dry layer was observed on our evening upper air sounding between 850 and 700 mb, so some moistening will initially take place as this snow area moves into the Illinois River Valley toward midnight. Greater snow enhancement again will be over northern Illinois overnight, with areas near and north of I-74 being sideswiped. Latest HRRR would suggest the period from 3-7 am with the greatest potential for any minor accumulations in this area. Much of the precipitation should be out of the forecast area before mid morning, though the hi-res models show some light rain developing toward midday near and south of I-70 as the front passes. Updates were done to add some 20% PoP`s for Monday afternoon in that area, while minor tightening of the overnight and early morning PoP`s was done elsewhere. Winds are starting to shift around to the west/southwest, and our low temperatures should generally be over the next couple hours. Temperatures still projected to slowly rise over the CWA after midnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Mid afternoon surface map shows 1007 mb low pressure near the OH/PA border with a cold front extending sw through central parts of KY/AR. Weak 1020 mb high pressure was over northeast MO and southeast IA and west central IL. MVFR clouds were scattering out north of I-72 and across southern IL at 3 pm while band of mid level clouds spreading se from central/western IA and northern MO into west central IL. Radar mosaic and surface obs show light snow and flurries have shifted east of CWA into central/northern IN and far ne IL south of Cook county/Chicago area. Aloft IL remained in a nw upper level flow with large upper level trof over eastern North America and upper level high/ridge off the west coast. High res models bring weak high pressure into southern IL by mid evening and into the TN river valley overnight, while a clipper system over the Northern Plains track se through central WI/IA by late tonight. This will spread a band of light snow into northern half of IL overnight into Monday morning, especially from I-74 north. Snowfall amounts still appear less than 1 inch over northern/ne counties from I-74 north with over 1 inch amounts along north/NE of a LaSalle/Peru to Lafayette, IN northward where winter wx advisory posted after 3 am tonight through Monday morning. The light snow could mix with light rain early Mon afternoon before ending late Mon afternoon. Lows tonight to be reached this evening in the mid teens northern CWA and lower 20s south of I-70. Brief warm-up Monday with breezy SSW winds ahead of the cold front, with highs in the mid 30s from Peoria north and low to mid 40s sw CWA and southeast IL. With cold front passing through IL river valley late Mon morning, and through se IL late Mon afternoon, we will see falling temperatures behind the front over central IL like what we experienced this morning. && .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A strong 1040 mb Canadian high pressure to settle se into the Northern Plains/upper Midwest Tue afternoon and over MO/IL by midday Wed. This will bring another cold snap to the area Monday night through Wed night. Lows Monday night to range from near zero by Galesburg (wind chills 10-15 below zero) to mid to upper teens in southeast IL. Highs Tue 10-15 from IL river nw, and mid 20s in southeast IL and colder wind chills with brisk NW winds. Coldest air to arrive Tue night with lows in the sing digits below zero from I-72 north with Galesburg near 10 below, while lows around 5 south of I-70. Wind chills to reach 10-20 below zero Tue night into mid Wed morning north of I-70, coldest northern/nw CWA where a wind chill advisory will eventually be needed. Wind chills of 5 to 10 below zero in southeast IL. Another very cold day Wed with highs in the upper teens to near 20F in central IL and lower 20s in southeast IL. Lighter winds on Wed as high pressure settles into the area. As high pressure shifts into the southeast states Thu, a quick warm up is expected with breezy sw winds. Highs Thu in the mid to upper 30s, with sw CWA around 40F. A cold front to push se through IL Thu afternoon into Thu evening and could bring small chances of light snow, possibly mixed with light rain Thu afternoon. Not a lot of moisture to work with this far sw as gulf is cut off and stronger dynamics are ne of central IL, so any pcpn amounts if they occur will be light. Colder highs Fri in the lower 20s northern CWA and upper 20s to near 30 in southeast IL and dry as high pressure settles se into IL/MO by sunset Fri. But not as cold as the cold air mass Tue/Wed. Temps modify over the weekend as high pressure shifts into southeast states and get back into a south to SW flow. Highs Sat in the low to mid 30s, with upper 30s from Springfield sw. Highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s next Sunday with next cold front moving in next Sunday afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 527 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Another clipper system will be tracking southeast into the area overnight. Main visibility impacts will remain further north of the central Illinois TAF sites, but some heavier snow showers will bring visibility down to around 4-5 miles at KPIA overnight. While ceilings go down to around 4000 feet after 06Z, widespread MVFR conditions should hold off until around midday. Northwest winds will quickly trend toward the south this evening, before shifting back northwest behind a cold front late Monday morning into the afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...07/Geelhart SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
813 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 The forecast trends for tonight look on track. The center of the surface high is now in southern IL and it will continue to retreat eastward overnight with increasing south-southeasterly boundary layer flow in it`s wake, topped by an increasing west-southwesterly LLJ around 0.5-1.5 km AGL. The resultant WAA regime along with thickening clouds should stop any additional temperature fall by midnight or so, and then lead to slowly warming temperatures overnight. The only more prominent change I have made is to add some low pops for late Monday morning into Monday afternoon, starting in northeast MO and west central IL and shifting southeast with time. The RAP, NAM12, and recent runs of the HRRR have been showing potential for a narrow band of light rain associated with low-mid level frontogenetical forcing attendant with the cold front. Glass && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front associated with this morning`s Alberta Clipper has made its way through most of the forecast area, cooling temperatures from their morning peaks. A surface high will quickly slide through the region this evening into the overnight period, the associated calm winds and clear sky allowing for the best radiational cooling during the first half of the evening. By the early morning winds will return to the south ahead of another approaching clipper system, and the associated WAA along this flow will start to warm temperatures. This second clipper will follow the same path as the one this morning, passing through Iowa and northern Illinois, safely north of our forecast area. Conditions tomorrow morning will be wildly similar to today. So while the main area of precipitation will be along and north of the clipper`s low, I can`t rule out some brief drizzle/freezing drizzle across the northern most CWA as the low interacts with the WAA. The area will warm overnight and into the day Monday, before the attendant cold front associated with the clipper moves through the CWA Monday afternoon. By the time the cold front makes it to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Monday evening, temperatures will have peaked in the low to mid 50s. The cold front will usher in an Arctic air mass, causing the bottom to rapidly fall out of the temperatures. Surface temperatures will drop 30-40 degrees F between noon on Monday to 6am on Tuesday as the robust CAA cools the lower atmosphere 10-15 C. MRM .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A surface high will move into the region in the wake of the cold front and, with the Arctic airmass, will linger across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures will drop into the negative teens, near the 10th climatological percentile for this time of year. High temperatures will peak in the teens to 20s across most of the area and low temperatures bottoming out in the single to negative single digits Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon the surface high will shift to the east, throwing the region back into southwesterly flow and a WAA regime, helping temperatures begin to rebound starting overnight into Thursday. Southerly flow will continue during the day Thursday ahead of an approaching mid-level trough and surface low moving into the area Friday. The persistent dry conditions during the week appear that they will continue into the weekend. Moisture associated with this system is very limited, and current forcing is not expected to be robust enough to produce measurable QPF over the forecast area. Only a small number of ensemble members indicate measurable precipitation. MRM && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 The main issue tonight will be a period of LLWS. Surface high pressure currently centered over the area will retreat eastward tonight resulting in the development of light southerly winds. Aloft a west-southwesterly LLJ will bring LLWS conditions for a period overnight into early Monday morning. Otherwise a mix of mid-high clouds tonight will bring VFR flight conditions. A strong cold front will push through the area on Monday afternoon accompanied by increasing northwest winds. Post-frontal stratus will bring MVFR flight conditions to KUIN on Monday afternoon, and these should eventually move into the other terminals beyond the current valid TAF period on Monday evening. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
925 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 .UPDATE... ...Freeze Warning With Widespread Frost for Lake/Inland Volusia Counties Overnight... ...Near Freezing Temperatures And Areas of Frost For Much of the Remainder of the Area... Temperatures continue their quick post-sunset fall across ECFL this evening. Already seeing M-U30s across NE Lake/NW Volusia as of 9PM, with L-M40s southward into Osceola-Brevard and U40s-L50s from Palm Bay-Melbourne south to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast where stubborn low clouds continue to hang tough. Initial temp drop was a few degrees faster than previously advertised, so made some tweaks to compensate in the 0-3hr time frame. With T-Td spread narrowing significantly, nocturnal temp fall should slow in these areas. The lingering low overcast over the SE CWA will continue to erode from the N-W, allowing for a steady, slightly faster fall in temps to occur there. Light NW drainage wind expected to drop off toward sunrise as GOMEX ridge continues to settle SE into FL. 00Z HRRR shows a small piece of the eastern flank of the ridge pinching off over the peninsula after 09Z, which would allow for more widespread frost to develop than is typical for a regime where SFC-H85 winds average near 10kt as in this case. Overall, the forecast is in great shape, along with ongoing Warning/Advisory for freezing temps/frost. && .AVIATION...Back edge of the stratus deck (OVC008-012) from just SE of KMLB to KOBE and continues to plague the VRB-FPR-SUA corridor. The deck will will continue to erode/dissipate from NW-SE, but do so slowly. Current timing looks to be about 05Z@VRB, 06Z@FPR and 08Z @SUA, perhaps an hr later. Otherwise VFR SKC becoming AOA SCT-BKN200 by Mon afternoon. & .MARINE...Given current buoy obs at 41009/41010/41114,winds/seas are subsiding a bit more quickly than previously indicated. As such will pare back a little more of the SCA then was scheduled for 02Z/9PM, changing the nearshore Treasure coast leg to a Cautionary Statement. Winds/seas across the remaining SCA area will drop below 20KT/7FT by 09Z/4AM. && Cristaldi/Combs && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 347 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022) Monday... Surface low pressure over Texas will continue to build its axis across the Florida peninsula through the time period, with the center shifting eastward along the Gulf states and into the Florida panhandle by the afternoon. Locally, winds will be northwest and light, with winds around 5 mph or less. After a cold and frosty start to the day, afternoon highs will only reach in the low to mid 60s areawide. Rain chances will remain out of the forecast through the time period as forecast soundings show a substantial dry layer from the low to upper levels with PW values less than 0.30". This dry air will also limit any cloud development for Monday, with skies remaining sunny to mostly sunny through the day, with a few high clouds possible, especially across the north. Tuesday...A weak area of high pressure crosses the area, allowing for a chilly morning with clear skies and calm winds. Temperatures in the low to mid 40s only increase into the upper 50s to low 60s along and north of I-4, while the Treasure Coast gets a nice warmup into the low 70s. The next system to impact our area is a a high- energy mid-level shortwave that quickly crosses the GOMEX Tuesday, then moves across the FL peninsula Tuesday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure develops just off the TX coast in the morning, rapidly crossing the Gulf through the afternoon, then across the central/southern FL Tuesday night. The wave quickly shears out depriving the surface low of its needed upper-level support. Most models indicate the low weakens by the time it reaches FL, but still brings in significant increase in moisture. A few showers possible north of I-4 by early afternoon, then scattered to numerous showers cross the area in the evening and overnight. Have bumped up rain chances to 60-70pct. Dynamics are not favorable for lightning storms, but cannot completely rule out a rumble or two. Wednesday-Thursday...As a strong ridge across the Northeast U.S. moves offshore into the western Atlantic, a backdoor front slides from the Carolinas south to the waters east of FL. This front should absorb the remnants of the low that crossed FL the day prior, though some of the guidance does hint at a secondary low developing and moving east away from FL. Regardless, increasing pressure gradient and lingering low-level moisture result in scattered onshore moving showers Wednesday and Thursday as an inverted surface trough develops. Rain chances are at 30pct for the coast and 20pct inland on Wednesday, decreasing to 20 pct for the coast and dry inland on Thursday. Near normal temperatures for mid week, highs ranging up from upper 60s to mid 70s, and morning lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Friday-Next Weekend...Models remain in great agreement on the next significant system moving through the region late Friday as a high amplitude trough digs into the northern Gulf Coast. Models do not show a surface low developing anymore, rather indicating a strong cold front rapidly crossing the peninsula on Saturday. A blast of cold air behind the front drops temps well below normal next weekend, with potential for near-freezing temps Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Monday... High pressure ridge will continue to be over the local area, providing sunny to mostly sunny skies and no rain chances. Improving boating conditions expected Monday with wind and sea conditions continuing to improve through the day. Seas will start off 4-6 ft in the morning before subsiding to 3-5ft by late afternoon. Northwest winds around 15 KT in the morning will decrease to around 10 KT by the afternoon. Tuesday-Friday...Poor boating conditions are likely across the local waters for much of next week. A weak area of low pressure crosses the central FL peninsula Tuesday, then pressure gradient over our area increases Wednesday and Thursday as a backdoor front stalls east of FL. Scattered to numerous showers with a few lightning storms are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, then decreasing Thursday, with dry conditions on Friday. South/southeast winds around 10KT Tuesday become north and increase to around 20KT Wednesday afternoon as the front moves into the local waters. Winds veer NE at 15-20KT Thursday. Seas 3-5FT through mid week, then swells build to 6-9FT late Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 33 62 42 62 / 0 0 10 60 MCO 34 65 45 64 / 0 0 10 60 MLB 36 64 43 67 / 0 0 10 50 VRB 36 67 41 70 / 0 0 0 40 LEE 32 63 44 60 / 0 0 10 60 SFB 35 64 44 62 / 0 0 10 60 ORL 35 65 47 63 / 0 0 10 60 FPR 37 65 41 71 / 0 0 0 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM Monday for Coastal Volusia- Northern Brevard-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole- Southern Brevard. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM Monday for Inland Volusia- Northern Lake-Southern Lake. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM Monday for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
906 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Several weak clipper systems will pass across the region tonight through Tuesday night. Strong high pressure builds in from the west Wednesday through Thursday, then moves offshore on Friday. A potential coastal storm may affect the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The first bit of light snow put down a sporadic 1/2 inch to an inch west of the I95 with mainly trace amounts along and near it. The back end of the light snow is moving off the coast now. A few 1/10ths could accumulate in spots across Ocean south through Atlantic county. The second batch of snow to our west is decaying as expected, but more quickly. The HRRR is suggesting only the southern Poconos will pick up any additional accumulation. The cold air advection is not expected to be particularly strong tonight, so temperatures probably won`t be much different than Saturday night south of I-78 (around 15- 20 degrees). Single digits are expected in the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey though. Skies will begin to clear overnight as well. On Monday, a surface ridge axis will pass through the region with the flow turning southerly in its wake late in the day. Expect high temperatures mostly in the 30s (mid to upper 20s in the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey) and a light breeze. Skies will be mostly clear during the daytime, but will start to increase again later in the day as the next clipper system approaches from the west. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak clipper system moves through the Great Lakes Monday night and should be over Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning before lifting through northern New York state and into eastern Canada during the day Tuesday. A strong vort max passes through eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey just ahead of the clipper Monday night, and although conditions will be fairly dry with surface dew points in the teens, it should be enough to kick off some light snow across the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, and possibly down into the Lehigh Valley. Although QPF will be minimal, generally a few hundredths of an inch, snow ratios will be around 15-20:1. As much as 1-2 inches of snow will be possible across Carbon and Monroe counties, and less than an inch down to the Lehigh Valley. Another shortwave will rotate around the departing clipper system. The base of a deep H5 trough will extend down to Tennessee Valley and Southeast, and models indicating a weak area of low pressure forming around the Mid-Atlantic area. This may touch off some more precip in the late morning and early afternoon. In terms of ptype, snow is possible to the far north, while a wintry mix is possible for most of the rest of the area. Precip should change to rain in the late morning south of the Fall Line. Lows Monday night will range from the teens up north to the 20s otherwise. Highs on Tuesday will range from the 30s up north to the 40s south of the Fall Line. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front passes through Tuesday night and any lingering precip tapers off early in the evening. Strong cold air advection will spread into the region starting Tuesday night. Canadian 1038 mb high pressure then builds in from the west and will be centered over the Midwest on Wednesday before moving nearly overhead on Thursday, and then out to sea on Friday. During this time it will be cold and dry with below normal temperatures. Highs will be in the 20s to low 30s Wednesday and Thursday before warming closer to normal by some 10 degrees on Friday. Going into the end of the week, a deep, positively H5 trough will dig through the nation with the base of the trough digging into the Gulf Coast by Friday. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it over the Southeast, then lifts towards the Mid- Atlantic. Highly uncertain as to what happens from there. The 12Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF has a far offshore track with the low, whereas the 12Z CMC is much closer to the coast with a significant snowstorm. Will continue to follow the NBM guidance with slight chance PoPs throughout and low chance PoPs along the New Jersey shore. Will also point out that all members but one of the GEFS keep the storm offshore. For the most part, the last several runs of models have overall kept the storm offshore, but there have been a few runs, including the 12Z CMC, that bring it much closer to the coast with the potential for significant impacts. While chances are increasing that a storm will develop next weekend, it remains to be seen exactly where it will be. It will take some time over the next couple of days for the models to pick up on the details that will show whether it will track offshore or closer to the coast. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 06Z...Snow showers will remain isolated and light. Some visibility restrictions to MVFR are expected at times, mainly at RDG and ABE. Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence. Overnight...VFR with lower ceilings beginning to lift and scatter out through 12Z. Winds becoming northwesterly around 5 kts or less. High confidence. Monday...VFR with scattered mid-level and cirrus clouds. Winds initially north to northwesterly around 5 kts. Winds will become light and variable around 18Z then settle out of the south between 21-00Z around 5 kts or less. High confidence. Outlook... Monday night...VFR overall, but some light snow showers possible at KRDG/KABE with brief sub-VFR conditions. S winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence. Tuesday...VFR overall. A light wintry mix possible in the morning with snow possible at KRDG/KABE, and the wintry mix could change to plain rain by late morning. Overall chances are fairly low. Brief, sub-VFR conditions possible in precip. W winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR. NW winds less than 10 kt Tuesday night, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Wednesday, becoming N less than 10 kt Wednesday night. Moderate confidence. Thursday...VFR. LGT/VRB winds, becoming S less than 10 kt. High confidence. Friday...VFR. W winds less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated through Monday. Winds southwest to west around 10-15 kts. The winds will then shift gradually to north to northwesterly overnight then shift southerly late Monday afternoon and evening. Seas around 3-4 feet. A period of light snow is possible late this evening north of Atlantic City. Outlook... Monday night...Overall, sub-SCA conditions, but a few gusts to 25 kt possible on the ocean and seas may briefly build close to 5 feet. Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions. Wednesday...Occasional NW winds gusting to 25 kt possible. Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...MPS Near Term...Kruzdlo/Staarmann Short Term...MPS Long Term...MPS Aviation...Kruzdlo/MPS/Staarmann Marine...MPS/Staarmann