Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/22/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
537 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A good amount of weather heading at us with the first of three snow- producing systems moving through tonight. Current surface analysis has a strong warm front oriented from eastern ND into central NE with about a 15-20F temperature rise behind it /so, the area will be warming all night/. GOES water vapor imagery showing more impressive darkening over nwrn ND within the parent shortwave trough circulation located over swrn Saskatchewan. An INCREDIBLY dry air mass is found in the morning regional soundings with 30C dewpoint depressions below 500mb in the pre-wave environment. Impressively, the radar and surface observations are showing this band of forcing producing snows in the 1/2-2SM range in the Dakotas /and increasing in coverage over the past two hours/...impressive work to saturate that dry air. This snow band from MN-NE is well correlated with low- level warm advection ahead of the warm front. Winds have been on the increase and as this front approaches, expect gusts to increase to 30 mph west of the Miss river. Post-warm front, winds shift to W-NW with many gusts to 40mph over the Dakotas. The forecast is pretty much on track with accumulating snow with the snow band moving in this evening and shifting quickly east and out by sunrise Saturday. With the moderate QG forcing and isentropic lift / warm advection working together, and this continuing to mature as the shortwave trough shifts southeast, feel that the snow totals are on track with generally 1" or less southwest of I-94, 1- 2" along and north of I-94. Winds are a bit of a challenge with this system as the flow just above the surface is racing into the 40-50kt range this evening. The majority of model soundings stabilize in the boundary layer this evening and really arent mixing to realize this potential. Thus, have lowered the gust speeds tonight a fair amount. This is of lower confidence as the lapse rates are very close to mixing deeper. This will need to be monitored. Once the front passes later tonight, lapse rates in the lowest 1km become steeper but the low-level wind field has decreased, and it still seems to allow gusts of 25-30 mph in the sunrise hours. So, have forecast that ramp down this evening in the gust speed with another ramp up around sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 The shortwave parade continues into Monday, with a couple more shots for accumulating snows. While none of the systems over the next few days will bring an "appreciable" amount of snow, by Monday morning most of the area could/will have a fresh 3 to 5 inches. SAT/SAT NIGHT: bits of upper level energy slated to quickly follow the system from tonight, swinging across the local forecast area around 06z Sun, exiting southeast around 12z Sun. Models in good agreement with taking the associated sfc low across IA, placing the system`s deformation region from southern MN, across northeast IA and through northern IL (generally southwest of I-94). Slug of low level thermodynamics in this region (evidenced with upglide on 280- 295K sfcs) along with sloping southwest to northeast frontogenetic forcing (in this case, more punchy in the 900:800 mb layer). Ample lift with enough saturation for snow production. Amounts? Current track would place the main band from southern MN, across northeast IA and southeast of there. DGZ via RAP bufkit soundings could be in excess 250 MB while the NAM and GFS would favor 50-100 mb. Disagreement centers on differences in temps a loft. Will lean toward something in the middle for now, with snow ratios generally 15/20 to 1. Where it snows, time in residence will help with the deformation region running along the same track as system movement. Overall, currently looking at 1 to 3 inches, but see some potential for some higher amounts in a more compact region, which could lie just southwest of the local area (per latest HRRR/RAP). SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING: similar to Sat night with another shortwave sliding across the region with a slug of low level thermodynamics. Track is more northward with decent agreement between the models sliding the associated sfc low southeast across central MN into central WI between 00-09z Mon. Frontogenetic support runs mostly north-south, ahead of the sfc low. Bulk of the associated snow would fall along/northeast of I-94 in this scenario. Snow ratios likely somewhere in the 15/20 to 1 range. Totals from 1 to 3 inches also favored at this time. OVERALL: the locations that get the bulk of the snow Sat night will flip flop with the areas that don`t for Sun night. With some locations expected to get around 3", slight shift in system track and/or increase in snow ratios could push those locations up into Winter Weather Adv criteria. Something to keep an eye on. TEMPS: at or below normal for the much of the new week with the upper level pattern holding (more or less) with ridge across the west coast and troughing in the east. Various shortwave troughs will reinforce the trough while also pushing slugs of cold air across the region. Interludes of shortwave ridging favor closer to normal temps...but these are brief. Working into the weekend, previous GFS and EC runs were at odds with how amplified the upper level pattern will be and positioning of ridge/troughing (and thus how cold/warm it could be). Current 12z runs in better agreement. However, EC ensemble members showing quite a much as a 30 degree spread between low-high end for temps. Confidence lower in this period as a result. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A band of accumulating snow will move across the area this evening into tonight. IFR visibilities are likely for a couple of hours as the snow begins and will gradually improve as the snow rates decline. MVFR ceilings are also likely through the overnight hours. Northwesterly winds will return tomorrow morning with 15-25kt gusts mainly in the morning. Low-level wind shear is also in place this evening at RST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baumgardt LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION...KAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
903 PM MST Fri Jan 21 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM MST Fri Jan 21 2022 The cold front finally progressed south through the Denver metro this evening, with a corresponding north wind shift that generated a brief spurt of localized snow showers for the western and southern metro. Light westerly downslope winds suppressed much of the wintry activity east of the Front Range earlier this afternoon, with generally a dusting to 2 inches reported along the southern urban corridor. Not expecting any meaningful additional snowfall east of the foothills this evening, so went ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for eastern Boulder and Jefferson Counties. Moderate snowfall has been much more persistent across the foothills, including I-70 from Golden to the Eisenhower Tunnel. Expect snow to continue for these areas through the next 2-3 hours, gradually dwindling in coverage and intensity. With considerable weekend traffic in the mountains and continued snow showers, will maintain the advisory for these areas, which still runs through midnight. Skies will clear quickly tonight, and combined with light winds, could lead to a few areas of fog across the plains late tonight into Saturday morning. Have therefore added a mention of patchy fog in this evening`s forecast update for portions of the plains. Lows will generally be in the teens east of the mountains (pushing closer to 20 F around the metro), with single digits and a few sub-zero values likely in the high country, coldest in/around typical high valley cold pools. Dry and milder Saturday, with mostly sunny conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 120 PM MST Fri Jan 21 2022 Light and at times moderate snow is occurring in many spots across the area, in particular within the winter weather advisory. The latest HRRR has backed off snow amounts in zone 39 (Boulder to west metro Denver), but with cold road temperatures even 1-3" of snow will cause issues for travel this evening. There are still good signs pointing to convective instability moving south along the Front Range later this afternoon and evening, which with increased snow rates we still expect that could/should make for a messy rush hour--especially in the foothills above 6,500 feet all along the Front Range and the west part of the Palmer Divide. The advisory looks like the right highlight through midnight for now. Elsewhere a decent snow is possible along the higher elevations of the Front Range and in the mountains along and south of I-70, with 2-6" possible through midnight. The Park and Gore Ranges may only see an inch or two as instability is lacking in that area and there really isn`t any upslope flow. The northeast plains won`t see much snow either, because of the downslope flow off the Cheyenne Ridge, especially eastern Larimer, Weld, and points eastward. Closer to the terrain of the Palmer Divide may see a half inch of snow. Snow should end tonight from north to south, by midnight if not sooner as the upslope weakens and the trough moves even further south of us into Arizona. The mountains in Park County and the Palmer Divide near the El Paso line may hang onto light snow for a few hours more, but no significant additional accumulation are expected after midnight. Any lingering icy/snow covered roads will quickly recover/improve Saturday morning with no chance of snow, mostly sunny skies, and much warmer temperatures advected from the northwest. Expect highs in the 40s for the plains and I-25 urban corridor, with 30s in the mountains valleys other than North and Middle Parks. It looks like the inversions will hold strong on Saturday without much wind to scour out the cold air. Highs will remain in the low to mid 20s there. Winds will be weak across the area other than the far northeast plains where west winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected during the afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 120 PM MST Fri Jan 21 2022 Split weather pattern remains over Colorado through Sunday as a closed low spins over the Desert Southwest and the main storm track stays off to the northeast. This will result in mild temperatures and dry conditions. Highs should climb into the lower 50s over northeast Colorado where the snow has melted off and above the inversion. Models are good agreement showing a trough diving south across the Rockies late Monday and Tuesday. Timing is slightly different, but not too far off. The center of the trough pushes southeast over the Four Corners. A cold front associated with this system pushes south through Colorado sometime Monday. Highs will depend on the timing of the front, so a fair amount of uncertainty remains with the temperature forecast for Monday. The highest snowfall amounts should be west of I-25, along the east slopes of the Front Range mountains and foothills. Here, upslope flow should help produce a few more inches. At this time, looks close to advisory amount snowfall with heaviest amounts being 4-8 inches in the foothills and mountains. The far eastern plains are expected to see only a little to no snowfall. Northwest flow aloft will continue over the Central Rockies Wednesday through Friday. A few models show a weak trough embedded in the northeast flow aloft moves across Colorado. Most of the ensemble members are dry during this period, so will keep PoPs low, but can`t totally rule out snow during this time frame. Expect temperatures to be near to slightly below normal under this northwest flow. Could see a windy day or two as flow aloft increases. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 832 PM MST Fri Jan 21 2022 Snow showers have tapered off across the metro, and additional precipitation appears unlikely for any of the TAF sites. Current light N/NE winds will become more variable with some SW drainage flow developing overnight, but remaining very light. Expect mid and high level clouds to continue to thin overnight, with clear skies by morning. The one caveat/concern will be the continued potential for fog development, mainly 06Z-14Z, in the vicinity of the terminals. Confidence in occurrence is low, but potential seems high enough to still warrant VCFG in the TAF. If fog develops, there will be a chance for vis of 1/2 SM or less. VFR conditions are expected most of the day Saturday, along with light winds which should gradually transition to a northerly direction in the afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ035- 036. && $$ UPDATE...Rodriguez SHORT TERM...Schlatter LONG TERM...Meier AVIATION...Rodriguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
955 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An area of coastal low pressure will lift northeast along a cold front tonight. The low will produce freezing rain across portions of the region tonight. Dry high pressure will then build from the west Saturday through Monday. Low pressure could affect the area next Tuesday, followed by another cold air mass through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Numerous reports of freezing rain continue to stream into the office this evening, mainly across the Charleston Tri-County. Reports elsewhere are typically hard to get this time of night. As expected, the most significant icing has occurred across Berkeley County where some fairly decent ice is now covering trees, cars and other structures per social media and spotter reports. Local storm reports (LSRs) are being issued as reports are received and quality controlled. No changes were made to the Winter Weather Advisory with this update. Watching a corridor of enhanced pcpn developing across east-central Georgia that will trek across far interior Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia as well as the Charleston Tri-County overnight. This area of pcpn aligns well with the corridor of strongest lift associated with the right entrance region of the upper jet moving across the Carolinas. There is concern with temps below freezing that ice accrual rates will increase for about 2-4 hours later tonight as this area of pcpn pushes through. Updated ice accumulations are not much different than the previous update, but there are still concerns that about amounts could get close to Ice Storm Warning criteria (0.25" or greater) across eastern Berkeley County and upper Charleston County. After some internal discussion, the decision was made to not upgrade at this time given the impacted area reaching >0.25" should be relatively small. In addition to freezing rain, RAP soundings over interior Southeast South Carolina suggest the warm nose aloft could erode just enough closer to midnight to support occasional mixing of the freezing rain with a little sleet. While this should not be much of a contributing factor to this event, it may be noticeable for a few hours. Finally, after rain ends patches of freezing drizzle may linger to 1-2 hours after daybreak. While this is not explicitly shown in the text or gridded forecasts, this will have to watched carefully. 22/02z mesonet observations show the freezing line is tad ahead of schedule across interior Southeast Georgia, so near term was adjusted to reflect this. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: A coastal low and associated cold front will push east of the forecast area through the morning hours. Short term guidance indicates that deep dry air will sweep west to east with the passage of a mid-level trough early Saturday. The arrival of the dry air should end precip across the land zones, with a few lingering rain showers over the coastal waters. Temperatures should begin the day in the upper 20s inland to the low 30s. Cloud cover is forecast to remain high through the morning, then a few breaks of sunlight is expected during the afternoon. Using a blend of MOS, temperatures should warm above freezing by mid-day with high temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 40s. Any wintry accumulations across the CWA should steadily melt through Saturday afternoon. Sunday and Monday: Dry and cold conditions will remain across the forecast area both days. Temperatures Sunday morning should remain well below normal, with low to mid 20s across the area. Full sun on Sunday with cool thicknesses should yield high temperatures from upper 40s across Berkeley and Charleston County, to the low to mid 50s across SE GA. A dry cold front is timed to sweep into the region by Monday morning. Mostly clear conditions and lingering cool llvl thicknesses should yield low temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 Monday morning, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday: Another southern stream low pressure system will track across the Deep South Monday night, passing across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures during the night are forecast to remain in the upper 30s with daytime temperatures warming into the low to mid 50s. This event is expected to support at least likely PoPs for a cold rain. Wednesday through Friday: The center of Canadian high pressure is forecast to track from the Northern Plains on Wednesday morning to the East Coast by late Friday. The forecast is expected to remain dry. Temperatures will remain below normal, with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temperatures have dropped to freezing at KCHS and will do so soon at KJZI. Expect freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle to prevail at both terminals overnight with cigs dropping to IFR. The risk for ice accumulations will be present at both terminals. The Freezing rain should end by 08-09z, but a period of freezing drizzle may linger until daybreak. IFR cigs will gradually improve to MVFR by early afternoon. For KSAV, liquid rain or drizzle will persist with IFR cigs. A brief period of freezing rain could occur at the terminal early Saturday, but confidence is still somewhat low if any meaningful ice accumulations will occur. Similar to KCHS and KJZI, conditions will improve to MVFR by early afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Monday. Flight restrictions will be possible in showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .MARINE... Tonight: Our area will remain sandwiched between a cold front offshore and high pressure centered to our west. The interaction between these two features is causing the surface pressure gradient to be elevated. Additionally, there is cold air advection across the area. This is resulting in elevated winds and building seas across our waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of our waters, except the Charleston Harbor. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will increase across the forecast area on Saturday. North winds are forecast to remain gusty with lingering seas are forecast to remain through Saturday evening outside the Charleston Harbor. Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal waters outside the Charleston Harbor through Saturday evening. A Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters, from 20nm to 60nm, will remain in effect through Sunday afternoon due to elevated seas. Low pressure will gradually organize over the Deep South on Monday, passing over the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will vary with the approach and passage of the low, remaining below advisory criteria. High pressure is expected to build across the region on Wednesday with gusty north winds, possibly reaching around 20 kts. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>116-118-138. SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ374. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
944 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will fall tonight across the eastern Carolinas. Dangerous travel conditions are expected. Dry high pressure will build in Saturday keeping the area dry and cold through early next week. The next low pressure system moves through Tuesday with a chance of rain. High pressure will build in Wednesday into Friday. && .UPDATE... Reports of sleet mixing in with or replacing the freezing rain are showing up across the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington corridor this evening. Accumulating sleet is occurring in Whiteville. West of I-95 snow is becoming the dominant form of precip and accumulations are starting. The most intense portion of this winter storm will unfold now through about 2 AM. Changes with this forecast update include expanding sleet down to the coast a few hours earlier than anticipated, and minor tweaks to temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperatures are hovering right around the freezing mark across the CWA this afternoon, with reports of light icing occurring. Areal coverage of light precip will increase through late afternoon and evening as moisture surges north and lift is enhanced ahead of the shortwave currently moving into western TN. Have made some slight adjustments to the storm total ice and snow amounts, based on some colder guidance coming in, indicating that a changeover to snow or snow/sleet may occur for most of the CWA during the evening hours...closer to midnight along the coast. The GFS supports this idea, showing healthy moisture and lift in the -12C to -18C layer, spreading west to east across the forecast area tonight and exiting the coast around 12Z Saturday. HRRR continues to pick up on some banding that could develop across the Pee Dee early this evening and transition east to the coast overnight. This would enhance potential accumulations, and we`ll monitor its progression. WPC has tweaked their guidance up a smidge as well. At this point, it appears that ice accumulation across the far western CWA may be limited this afternoon and evening, simply because a changeover to sleet/snow could occur before much ice can accrete. This would translate to slightly higher snow amounts, which we have adjust up to 3" or so across northern Darlington, Marlboro, Dillon and Robeson counties. Highest ice accretion is still expected across northern Horry county, northeast across the Cape Fear, where we expect a range of generally 0.25-0.5". As the precip exits the coast late tonight, would not be surprised if flakes are flying all the way to the beaches. Accumulating snow...albeit less than an now expected as far east as a Wilmington to Conway to Kingstree line. East of that line, although flakes may fall, we are not expecting a significant accumulation. All winter weather warnings and advisories will remain unchanged. Conditions will become extremely hazardous through the remainder of the afternoon and overnight, and will remain so after sunrise tomorrow. After lows tonight around 30-32 degrees, highs Saturday should only reach the upper 30s.&& && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The wintery precipitation will be gone from the forecast area. With winds dropping Saturday night and multiple types of frozen precipitation on the ground overnight, the area will see the lowest temperatures of the year. The forecast will go below guidance, with temperatures are expected to fall into the teens except at the beach strands. The Sunday morning lows look to be only a few degrees warmer than the record lows for the date. Record Lows Sun Jan 23, 2021 Record Forecast Lows ILM - 17 2011 19 LBT - 16 2011 17 FLO - 14 1985 18 CRE - 16 2011 21 High pressure across the Carolinas will give way to another cold front crossing the area overnight Sunday. This time dry, and the main impact will be increased wind speeds. High temperatures are expected to rise into the middle 40s inland to the upper 40s at the coast. Lows at the coast are expected to fall back into the lower 20s to middle 20 inland and the upper 20 at the beaches. Highs on Monday will increase into the upper 40s to lower 50s with a few mid-50s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the middle to upper levels, the low over the southern tip of Baffin Island north of Hudson Bay continue to send short wave troughs embedded in the large scale trough. The Carolina`s will see a low-pressure area develop over the western Gulf and quickly cross the area ahead of another polar front cross the area on Tuesday. Then cold high pressure builds over the area later in the week. The precipitation on Tuesday may begin as a quick scattered snow shower well inland, but as we quickly warm up Tuesday morning, it will change over to rain. No accumulations at this time are expected. Over this period, temperatures will remain below normal. Highs are will be in the middle the upper 50s and lows in the middle 30s. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Freezing rain falling across the area now is expected to transition over to sleet and snow between 02-04z at the KFLO and KLBT airports. MVFR to IFR ceilings will be joined by IFR visibility where snow occurs. Along the coast there will be a substantial period of freezing rain lasting through around 07z, but even here precipitation may end as a period of sleet and snow between 07z- 10z Saturday. Afterward, low ceilings will linger through Saturday morning, perhaps even lasting into the afternoon along the coast, before moisture thins and clouds diminish. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions continue Fri night into Saturday. VFR returns Saturday and continues through Monday. MVFR/IFR possible with next system on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Saturday, Strong northerly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as low pressure deepens off the Outer Banks. Gusts will reach 35 knots north of Little River Inlet, where a Gale Warning will remain in effect. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect south of Little River, where gusts will reach 30 kt tonight. Winds will very slowly diminish on Saturday as the low lifts away. Seas of 4 to 7 feet are already being observed...highest in the outer waters of east of Cape Fear, and these will persist well into Saturday before beginning to subside late in the afternoon. Saturday Night through Wednesday, High pressure over the coastal waters Saturday night through Sunday will give way to a cold front late Sunday night, and this low will move well offshore. High pressure will return late Monday, and a quick- moving low- pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will combine with a front from the Northern Plains and will sweep across the waters on Tuesday. There will be a good chance of rain. High pressure will return over the waters on Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain at or below 15 knots until Wednesday with winds 15 to 20 knots. Overall the winds will be offshore most of the period. Seas will range from 2 feet near-shore to 4 feet off the coast. On Wednesday, seas will build to 3 to 5 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Ice Storm Warning until noon EST Saturday for SCZ054-058-059. Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Saturday for SCZ017-023- 024. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for SCZ032-033- 039-055-056. NC...Ice Storm Warning until noon EST Saturday for NCZ096-099- 105>110. Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Saturday for NCZ087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA/CRM NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...MAS/RH AVIATION...TRA MARINE...RH/CRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
745 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Fast-moving systems in northwest flow will bring occasional chances for light snowfall through the early part of next week. The best chances for accumulating snow in central Illinois will be from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another shot of cold air is forecast to affect central Illinois from Tuesday into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Upper wave stretches from northern Minnesota to southern South Dakota, per latest water vapor imagery. Cirrus shield ahead of this wave has crossed the Mississippi River and clouds over the forecast area will begin thickening soon, though the eastern CWA should remain fairly clear into late evening. Surface obs area showing the light snow still north of Des Moines, and the core of this snow should track north of the forecast area after midnight. Will maintain sub-20% PoP`s along and north of I-74 later tonight, with mainly just a threat of flurries in our area. With the clouds thickening soon northwest of the Illinois River, low temperatures were bumped up a tad there, but most areas still are on track, with temperatures holding relatively steady over the next several hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 328 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Visible satellite shows scattered low clouds over portions of southern and western Illinois fading with time. Winds have become light from the south as a surface ridge moves off to the southeast. Expect some increase in south/southwest winds late tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next surface trough, slated to come through during the late morning hours on Saturday. Cloud cover associated with the upper wave can currently be seen over portions of the Missouri Valley, and has moved into western Iowa. Though some light precip could be associated with this wave north of I-74, snow accumulations are unlikely. HRRR soundings show a notable dry layer below about 3000-4000 feet that precip may struggle to make it through. We still included some low probabilities for measurable precip and have mentioned light snow/flurries in the forecast for early Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect temperatures to warm to right around freezing in most of central Illinois on Saturday with west/northwest winds behind the morning surface trough. The next, somewhat stronger disturbance will affect central Illinois on Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 328 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 The next trough/associated surface low is forecast to slide into central Illinois late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, with breezy north winds during the day Sunday behind the passage of the surface low/front. Prior to this, some accumulating snow is forecast with the greatest amounts expected over areas north of I-74. Areas where accumulating snow is forecast have come a bit southward, with the NBM 50th percentile 24-hour snowfall for this period making a noticeable southward shift in the last 12 hours. Still, most areas are expected to see snow in the 0.5-1.5 inch range with only minor impacts expected. Breezy southwest winds are expected during the day on Monday before the next cold front makes its way into central Illinois in the Monday evening time frame. Some brief light precip is possible behind the front late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, but more notable is a closed low ejecting out of the southwest US as a compact short wave trough passing to our south on Tuesday. About 25% of ensemble members show 0.25" or more of precipitation southeast of I-70 on Tuesday in association with this feature, with the rest mostly dry. More confidently, a surface high takes hold by Wednesday with another bout of cold temperatures expected. With winds expected to be around 10 mph out of the northwest Wednesday morning, we may need to watch wind chill temperatures as well. Generally, a pattern with fast-moving troughs traversing the Midwest in northwest flow is forecast to continue through the remainder of the week with low probabilities for significant precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Incoming disturbance will result in a general lowering of clouds through the night, along with winds increasing and becoming more southwest. Core of the associated snowfall should remain north of the local terminals, though a bit of light snow or flurries can`t be ruled out near KPIA/KBMI. Ceilings in these areas should fall to around 4000 feet toward 12Z, and remain closer to 6000 feet further south. Once the disturbance passes, winds will slowly trend toward the west by late morning. Some gustiness is expected over eastern Illinois into the afternoon, but speeds over 10 knots are expected over the entire area. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...AAT SHORT TERM...AAT LONG TERM...AAT AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
530 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 A long wave trough of low pressure was the dominant weather feature across the CONUS this morning. High pressure was located north of Hispaniola with a ridge extending north across the western Atlantic. High pressure was also located around 500 miles off the coast of northern California. A ridge extended north of this high into the Alaska panhandle and eastern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. Within this long wave trough of low pressure, a shortwave trough extended from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest into central Texas. Further west, shortwaves were noted over Wyoming and northern Nevada with another shortwave trough over Saskatchewan. At the surface, arctic high pressure was the dominant feature over the western half of the CONUS this morning. A warm front was situated from eastern North Dakota, south into western Nebraska. Just east of this feature, a line of precipitation was present. Along the leading edge of this line, light freezing rain was occurring, with a change over to snow, then rain. Skies were mainly cloudy this afternoon with the exception of the northwest and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 23 at O`Neill to 45 at Gordon. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Looking at the latest NAM12, and HRRR solns, and clearing across the northwestern forecast area, precipitation should be ending by 6 PM CT this evening. In the meantime, will send out the zones with a pre-first period to handle exiting precipitation generally east of a line from Bassett to Imperial. A weak clipper system will track across Minnesota overnight with westerly and northwesterly winds persisting into the overnight. An arctic front in association with the clipper will dry to back into the far northeastern forecast area overnight making it to around O`Neill toward 12z Saturday. With the westerly winds expected overnight and the arctic airmass east and northeast of the area, overnight lows will be somewhat milder in the teens. On Saturday, a second clipper system will dive south from Saskatchewan into southeastern North Dakota by 00z Sunday. As this system tracks southeast, it will force the arctic front northeast of the area as a warm front. Decent westerly winds, coupled with H85 temps of 0 to 3C, will push highs into the 40s for Saturday. As the clipper dives southeast into the upper Missouri valley Saturday night, a cold front will back into the area from the east and make it as far west as the northeastern forecast area. The core of the arctic air will remain east of the area Saturday night with only a glancing shot of it in the northeastern forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 On Sunday, yet another clipper system, will track from southern Canada into eastern North Dakota. Winds will shift around to the west once again with even warmer H85 temps noted with readings of 3-6C Sunday afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s which is right at the middle of the NBM. An arctic cold front will be forced south through the area late Monday bringing a limited threat for snow, mainly across the west as the arctic air is forced west into the Panhandle. Current forecast has a mention of light snow Monday afternoon/night, focused mainly west of highway 83. This agrees well with the latest ECMWF and GFS solns from this morning. After temps in the 20s/lower 30s Tuesday, temps will moderate back to more seasonal levels as the core of the arctic airmass transitions from the Great Lakes east into the Mid Atlantic. Readings on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s. This will be followed by upper 40s to around 50 Friday. With the exception of Monday afternoon/night, the forecast will remain dry in the predominately northwesterly flow aloft regime. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Storm systems dropping south through Canada and tracking through the Dakotas and the upper Midwest will spread dry stable air into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The risk of MVFR or lower flight conditions tonight and Saturday is low, less than 20 percent. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
710 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon) Issued at 101 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and a trough in the Canadian Prairies this morning along with a trough in the lower Great Lakes region. The Canadian Prairies trough will move into the Northern Plains by this evening. In the meantime, the wind has picked up and become gusty in most places and temperatures are warming nicely with sunshine out. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast except added in some small pops in the east with a Lake Michigan lake effect snow band that is on the edge of ERY and that will remain through this afternoon and have it dry in the west through this afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 401 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2022 The weather for the next 7 days will continue to alternate between cold and not quite as cold but still pretty cold, with multiple bouts of light snow and lake effect snow - just as it has for past couple weeks. Tonight, a cold front will swing across the U.P. from west to east with a band of light snow. Compared to radar returns over Minnesota, all of the CAMs are handling its placement well. Leaned on the RAP and HRRR for timing of POPs overnight tonight. QPF is minimal - general 0.05-0.1", although some lake enhancement off of Lake Michigan could boost QPF up to 0.15" over the east. A very thick DGZ should lead to fluffy snow with SLRs of around 20:1, so that`ll translate into 1-2" of snow in most areas, with up to 3" east. The other story will be the gusty SW winds as a strong LLJ moves overhead. HRRR profiles show 60-70 kt winds in the lowest 1-2 kft AGL which, when oriented downslope into Marquette and the rest of Lake Superior shoreline from Big Bay to Grand Marais, should lead to a few hours of impressive gusts. Have issued a Wind Advisory for Marquette and Alger Counties this evening to cover the potential for a few hours of 50 mph gusts and associated blowing snow, although these stronger gusts will mostly be confined to within a few miles of the shoreline. Snow will transition to NW wind lake effect snow tomorrow behind the cold front and then continue through Sunday with mostly light accumulations. Another clipper system is likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Models have come into a good consensus in depicting another fluffy inch or so of snow, perhaps 2" south central. More NW wind lake effect snow will develop Monday afternoon behind the clipper and then continue through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This looks like another standard NW wind multi-band LES event with light accumulations, although the GFS hints at perhaps a stronger convergence band developing into Alger and Schoolcraft Counties late Tuesday which would lead to locally heavier amounts if it verified. Tuesday looks like the coldest day of the next 7 with highs in the single digits. Lows Tuesday night should fall to around -10 to -20 away from the lakes, and not quite as cold where lake effect cloud cover will persist. Overall the large scale pattern of western CONUS ridging and eastern CONUS broad troughing looks to continue through the end of next week, with temps rising back to near normal for late January by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 710 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2022 Approaching cold front will bring a band of -sn across the area tonight. Expect intial VFR at IWD/CMX/SAW to fall to IFR soon after the -sn begins, generally mid evening at IWD/CMX and around 06z at SAW. In addition, strong low-level jet translating across the area ahead of the front will lead to LLWS at all terminals for most, if not all, of the evening. Southerly sfc winds will also be gusty to around 30kt. After the main band of -sn passes, prevailing MVFR should be the rule at all terminals overnight. While IWD/SAW should remain MVFR on Sat, developing lake effect -shsn/blsn will likely lead to prevailing LIFR conditions at CMX. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 354 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2022 High-end southwest gales are still expected tonight across the lake with some low-end storm force gusts possible. Therefore, have upgraded the Gale Warning to a Storm Warning for parts of the western and north-central lake. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect. Winds will subside below gale force by sunrise on Saturday, except for a few marginal gale gusts over the east half Saturday afternoon. With multiple shots of cold air expected, winds across the lake will remain in generally the 20-30 kt range through Tuesday along with periodic bouts of heavy freezing spray. Lighter winds and decreased freezing spray coverage are expected Wednesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Wind Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LSZ263>267. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for LSZ245>251-265>267. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ263-264. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ240>244. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...RJC
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
830 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will extend into the region from the north through tonight, as a wave of low pressure tracks northeastward along a front sitting just off the Southeast and Carolina coast. The high pressure area will continue to extend across the area through Monday. An upper level disturbance will move in from the southwest on Tuesday, and will be followed by passage of another Arctic cold front from the northwest and north Tuesday night. Cold high pressure will return for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 830 PM Friday... Light snow has finally made it to the surface at Roxboro, Greensboro, and Burlington with light snow back in the Foothills at Morganton, Hickory, and Mount Airy. We may have to add Winston- Salem/Forsyth to the Advisory as they are the only hold out at the current time (and points north deeper into the very dry air in Stokes and Rockingham Counties). It is just a matter of time before the light snow reaches them as well. However, getting an inch in Forsyth will be a reach - and right now we are expecting less than 1 inch (Advisory Criteria). Snowfall rates will climb as the upper trough approaches. Note that light snow was falling in upstate SC. The snow will accumulate readily as temperatures are in the lower to mid 20s. As for the SE portion of the area, the latest radar and MPING reports show the snow/freezing rain line now moving SE through far SE Cumberland, north-central Sampson, and central Wayne. Freezing rain has changed to snow at Fayetteville (airport in the past ten minutes). Freezing rain and sleet continues around Clinton and Goldsboro. This will change in the next few hours to snow. Otherwise, the snowfall amounts appear on target and no changes are currently needed based on trends. Previous discussion as of 655 PM Friday... Snow has developed and overspread the SE Piedmont/Sandhills and central and northern Coastal Plain as of 700 PM. The snow/freezing rain line extended from southeastern Scotland NE across southeast Hoke, southern Cumberland, and NW Sampson County. Temperatures were very cold, in the lower to mid 20s allowing the snow to accumulate quickly to nearly all surfaces, even as light as it has been thus far. To the south, light freezing rain was reported at Laurinburg, Fayetteville (airport), and Clinton. However, this transition line will progress southeast changing the precipitation type to snow/sleet then snow in the next couple of hours. Rockingham, Hoffman and the north side of Fayetteville have already changed to light snow. Travel will become hazardous quickly as temperatures in the south were in the mid to upper 20s. There was a cut off to the snow to the NW where dry air continued to hold in place over the north-central Piedmont. Dew points were in the lower teens across the Triad to Roxboro. Expect the precipitation to continue to fill in and expand northwest. The Triad continues to be the X factor as the amount of very cold and dry air at the surface will lead to plenty of virga to start. Boone has finally started reporting light snow and there should be enough saturation to get some light snow in the Triad between 800 and 1000 PM. The latest radar trends suggest 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour rates to develop in the next few hours from near Hoffman to Southern Pines to Sanford, Raleigh, Louisburg and Halifax eastward into the Coastal Plain. The current forecast looks well on track and only a few tweaks have been made to the weather grids at this time. Previous discussion... As of 300 PM Friday... ...Have expanded winter weather warnings and advisories back further through the Piedmont with higher confidence in pockets of greater snowfall amounts... Winter storm warnings are now in effect for areas along and southeast of a line from Wadesboro to Roanoke Rapids. Winter weather advisories have been issued for areas northwest of here for the remainder of central NC except Forsyth. Latest guidance and observed trends are increasingly supportive of a high potential for heavy snow bands to develop over portions of central and eastern NC over the next 15 hours, with the focus on the 7p-3a time frame. The latest surface analysis shows frigid high pressure nosing down through central NC with cold/dry air advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Radar continues to show spotty elevated returns facing this dry subcloud layer and thus not reaching the ground. However, this is expected to change as the deep layer forcing for ascent strengthens as we head into the evening, resulting in saturation of the column and a blossoming of wintry precip over central NC, all in tandem with a band of increasing H7-H5 fgen from the central Piedmont E nearly to the coast between 02z and 08z. Most large scale models depict much stronger and more focused upper divergence over north-central and northeast NC than previous runs showed, and the potent mid level shortwave trough crossing the region this evening/tonight now takes on a neutral to slightly negative tilt as it reaches central NC. High res model guidance including recent HRRR runs also show well the bands of heavier precip starting this evening. Much of the area will see a fully below-0C column except for the SE, roughly along/SE of a Maxton-to-Goldsboro line which will see some warming aloft, although the expected degree of glazing in the SE has trended lower in recent model runs, and even this area may see decent snowfall with fairly light icing except for areas SE of Clinton. Given the higher confidence in the occurrence of heavy snow bands, have bumped up storm total snow to 2.5-4.5" along and east of a Wadesboro-to- Roanoke Rapids line. Areas NW of here will likely see some snow, but lasting a shorter time and with a lower threat of heavy snow, so we issued an advisory for the remainder of the area, except Forsyth, for snow totals up to 2". A quick exit of the precip from W to E is expected by sunrise or very soon thereafter. Lows from the teens to lower 20s. Chilly NW winds through the night will culminate in daybreak wind chills into the single digits to lower teens. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM Friday... The central of the coastal low bringing precipitation tonight will have moved well offshore by sunrise. While precipitation will remain along the North Carolina coastline, our local forecast area should be clear of precipitation. Clouds will linger through the morning east of US-1, but by the afternoon, skies should be mostly sunny everywhere. Northerly winds will continue through the day, and while highs will be warmer than today, they will still be well below normal, primarily in the mid to upper 30s. Only a small amount of melting will be able to occur with temperatures barely rising above freezing. The wind will become light and variable overnight, and with the addition of mostly clear skies and fresh snow cover in many locations, conditions will be prime for radiational cooling. Forecast lows are in the mid-teens, and temperatures will likely be colder in locations where snow remains on the ground. The hard freeze will certainly melt any precipitation that manages to melt during the daytime hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 110 PM Friday... Broad high pressure will extend across the southeastern United States Sunday and Monday. A surface low will move from Minnesota Monday to northern New York Tuesday and continue northeast along the Canadian border into Wednesday. The associated cold front will extend all the way south into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. This part of the forecast has not changed from 24 hours ago; however, the new wrinkle in the forecast is the GFS and ECMWF both spinning up a wave of low pressure along the southern end of the cold front along the Gulf Coast which will travel across Florida and over the Atlantic Ocean. The second low would likely help to bring additional moisture into the Carolinas from the Atlantic Ocean. Will continue with 40-50 pops Tuesday and drop pops to 20-30 Tuesday night. Continue to think that precipitation may briefly start as snow in the morning, quickly change over to rain, fall primarily as rain, then possibly change over to snow before ending Tuesday night. High pressure will then dominate the eastern half of the country Wednesday and Thursday, with a system remaining to the north over the Great Lakes on Friday. Temperatures will remain below normal the entire week. Highs will be in the 40s Sunday through Tuesday before the cold front drops highs back into the 30s and 40s for Wednesday and Thursday and some moderation occurs Friday. The coldest night will be Wednesday, with lows dropping into the upper teens and lower 20s. Several melting and re-freezing cycles can be expected of tonight`s snowfall. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 640 PM Friday... IFR to LIFR conditions with areas of snow and fog can be expected through 06z at KRWI and KRDU, with KFAY transitioning from light freezing rain to snow around or before 02z-03z. The KINT and KGSO areas will be on the edge of the snowfall and thus will likely have MVFR to VFR CIGS and VFR VSBYS with only very light snow through around 06z. The snow will begin to taper off from west to east between 06z and 09z from KRDU to KRWI/KFAY. A return to VFR conditions can be expected between 09z and 12z in the east. VFR conditions are expected in all areas on Saturday and Saturday night. Looking beyond 18Z Saturday: VFR conditions will dominate from late Saturday through Monday as high pressure builds in. An approaching front and upper level trough will bring a risk of sub-VFR conditions with rain chances on Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ011-026>028- 040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for NCZ007>010- 022>025-038-039-073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett/Hartfield SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Badgett/Kren
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1254 PM PST Fri Jan 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Strong north/east winds today and tomorrow. Continued dry next week with lighter winds. && .DISCUSSION... The strong offshore winds have arrived to northern California today. Already observing very strong gusts in the Sierra Nevada with Hell Hole RAWS station (Placer County, 5240 ft elevation) reporting a gust of 57 mph at 12 PM PST. The strongest gusts in the Sacramento Valley have been so far confined to the far western side, extending into the Delta region. Travis Air Force Base is reporting north winds with a gust of 40 mph at 12 PM PST. Strengthening offshore surface pressure gradients are responsible for these strong offshore winds. If it were to be September/ October/November, we would have fire weather concerns with this pattern setup. Fortunately, plentiful precipitation over the past 3 months have eliminated fire weather concerns this time around. The north-south gradient will peak later today/tonight, followed shortly thereafter with the peak of the east-west gradient tonight/early tomorrow. As has been previously mentioned, wind speed/gust forecasts have been gradually trending upward over the last 48 hours. Look for peak gusts of 50-70 mph along/west of the Sierra crest, locally higher at wind-prone peaks, gaps, and canyons. Latest high-res guidance such as the HRRR and 3 km NAM are very concerning, and depict these strongest gusts well. Official forecast winds and wind gusts incorporate this guidance. For the Sacramento Valley, peak gusts will range between 30-45 mph with the strongest gusts, and locally higher gusts along the west side of the Sacramento Valley and into the Delta area (i.e., Solano County). Impacts associated with these strong winds include the potential for downed trees, particularly in the mountains where the strongest winds are forecast; possible power outages; and difficulty with travel for high-profile vehicles. Furthermore, expect mountain recreation impacts for those planning to hike, ski, and/or snowshoe today/tomorrow. Exercise extreme caution if venturing into forested areas as conditions will be dangerous with the strong winds! Winds will begin to subside during the day on Saturday, and continue to decrease overnight Saturday. Dry, light offshore flow will persist through the weekend and into Monday with above-normal temperatures expected to continue. // Rowe && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)... Ensembles and clusters remain in solid agreement with upper level ridging over the West Coast through much of next week. Could see a weak trough approach the West Coast in the Day 7-8 timeframe, as is depicted in the ensemble means and a few clusters. For now, the National Blend of Models keeps the chance of measurable precipitation at 10 percent or less region-wide through next week Friday. // Rowe && .AVIATION... VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Widespread with gusts 25-40 kts in the Valley and gusts 30-50 kts in portions of the foothills and mountains, locally up to 70 kts over the Sierra Nevada through 00Z Sunday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until noon PST Saturday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northern Sacramento Valley- Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Recent water vapor imagery showing a broad upper trough axis from southern Saskatchewan to the Great Basin with two stronger waves in the trough -- one moving east-southeast on the northeast end and another moving south on the southwest end. Scattered radar returns over northwestern Nebraska have produced very light precipitation per objective observations, and forcing for ascent as the mean trough pushes southeast and the aforementioned stronger anomalies split around the region keep precipitation chances low as the trough slides through tonight into Saturday morning. Model soundings do show quite a bit of cloud cover moving through with decent lapse rates in the ice crystal formation layer, though ascent is meager and the low-levels continue to stay dry. Have kept any precip mention out but, as previously mentioned, a few areas of flurries could materialize. The cloud cover helps keep tonight`s temperatures much warmer than recent nights. Deeper northwest winds mix some warmer air down for Saturday with highs back near normal. Another weak frontal system passes through the area Saturday night and with some cirrus again keeping temps up with similar highs on track for Sunday. A shortwave trough diving south out of western Canada Sunday night into Monday ushers the southwest states cut-off low east across the southern Plains and a Canadian airmass into the local region Monday night into at least Wednesday. Monday`s temps should still be able to reach the 50s even with a late-day frontal appearance and with the main upper waves again flanking Kansas, precip chances are rather low. Wind chill values may fall a bit below zero both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings in the cold air. Temperatures may rebound for Thursday as another wave enters the central states from the northwest though the airmass behind this again looks modified for little cooling for Friday. Precipitation chances continue to look low in this regime though light amounts can`t be ruled out around Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 Main thing to watch is an area of MVFR stratus currently stretching from northwest KS into central NE. Model guidance suggests this should lift by the time it moves across TAF sites overnight; main question is by how much. Have leaned on RAP for timing and cigs as it appears to be handling the current situation reasonably well based on upstream obs, but cigs could still lift faster if this is too pessimistic. VFR looks likely to persist, though cigs near 3000 ft remain possible overnight before skies clear out. There could also be a brief period of directional LLWS around sunrise as winds veer near 1000 ft, but confidence is too low to include at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...65 AVIATION...Picha