Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/17/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
607 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
- Risk remains for freezing drizzle/light snow along and west of
the Mississippi River Valley before midnight tonight.
- Quiet and seasonable temperatures for Monday.
The earlier band of light snow accompanying the passage of a mid
to upper tropospheric trough has exited the forecast area with
low stratus funneling southeastward in its wake. This stratus is
preceding a meridional warm frontal boundary demarcating a
downslope-modified airmass working eastward from western
Minnesota. The increasing WAA this evening should result in high
temperatures in the 20s being reached this evening/overnight
As 280K isentropic ascent and theta-e advection increase over the
near-surface warm frontal surface, there remains a risk of a
freezing drizzle/snow mix starting around 22-00Z and continuing
through about 06Z. HRRR forecast soundings all day have been
steadfast in depicting a -10 to -15 ubar/sec bullseye right
through the lowest 150 mb of the saturated sounding profile and
low enough static stability to possibly lead to shower
development in addition to a more stratiform/drizzle scenario. The
biggest question revolves around whether we see ice nucleation in
the column. Forecast profiles from the various HREF inputs depict
the saturation flirting around the -8 to -10 C layer at times,
therefore kept a wintry mix for wording in the forecast. The
overall threat looks to be transient, lasting for 3-5 hours at a
given location before negative theta-e advection behind a cold
front ensues and cuts off the moisture.
As we go into the day on Monday, a progressive, low-amplitude
ridge slides through and keeps the sensible weather at bay. The
main uncertainty will revolve around cloud cover and given the
light wind profiles during the day, conditions are unlikely to
vary much through the day. There will be a weak push of CAA
tonight after 06Z behind the cold front, but weak southwesterly
flow ensuing by Monday afternoon should result in temperatures
rising back to near average for afternoon highs.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
- Light snow Tuesday/Tuesday night followed by strong winds
Tuesday night could lead to blowing and drifting of snow.
- Very cold for Wednesday through Friday with overnight wind
chill values of -15 to -35, coldest west of the Mississippi
The next significant weather system of note arrives Tuesday and
Tuesday night as a compact, but well-defined, clipper PV lobe
slides across the ND/Canadian border and tracks through northern
Minnesota. The GEFS/EPS guidance suite has struggled to bring QPF
south of I-94, but the SREF and deterministic NAM/GFS profiles
would suggest at least some risk of precipitation with both the
WAA isentropic ascent during the day on Tuesday and then again
with the push of CAA with the cold front on Tuesday night. For now
have kept the forecast as all snow given the uncertainties in the
thermodynamic profiles, but if confidence grows that there will
be precip along and south of I-94 during the day, may need to
introduce a wintry mix to the forecast with the H700-500 dry slot
cutting eastward around the south side of the low during the
course of the day.
Strong CAA ensues on Tuesday night as a potent cold front slams
southeastward through the forecast area. Maintained slight chance
PoPs through the overnight hours for frontal/post-frontal snow
showers. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 40 mph, arrive
behind the front as well and could lead to blowing snow conditions
for any snow showers that do develop.
After a mild day on Tuesday, temperatures plummet through the
night and reach the single digits for Wednesday morning. The cold
air lingers for Wednesday through Friday under a 1040-mb high
pressure cell. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to climb out of
the single digits above zero and on Thursday many locales will
not get above zero. Wind chills fall to dangerous levels and
will likely necessitate headlines as we get closer to the event.
Saturday features the next chance of snow as the cold pattern
departs. There remains ample uncertainty in the details of the
system, but confidence is growing that this will bring some snow
to the region.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
MVFR/IFR ceilings with a little light snow or a freezing drizzle
snow mix early in the TAF period. Northwest winds over the next
couple of hours strengthen with gusts 15 to 25kts. Forecast
soundings show the low level moisture sticks around through the
TAF period and beyond. Continue to mention MVFR ceilings with
periodic IFR ceilings. The northwest winds lighten Monday and
could see some light fog develop around RST, but will not mention
at this time.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1036 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
A strong winter storm will bring accumulating snow, an icy mix,
and gusty winds to the area tonight and Monday. Accumulating
lake effect snow will follow Monday night into Tuesday. A
clipper system will bring another chance for light rain and snow
to the area midweek, with Arctic air returning late in the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
So far the airmass is saturating a bit faster than modeled this
evening. Another general tick upward in QPF occurred with some
of the latest mesoscale guidance earlier this evening but has
leveled off since. This overall has raised snow totals by an
inch or so for most locations west of I-81. Travel conditions
will start to worsen rapidly an hour or two after the snow
The latest 00Z 1/17 NAM has trended colder with surface
temperatures as well but sends a warm pocket of air at 850 mb
northwestward across the region for a time around midnight. Also
a warm nose advances northward from the 850 and 925 mb levels
northwest as well through the region. So far the NAM,RGEM and
HRRR have a decent handle of the warm layer while the 18Z GFS
1/16 is too cold.
With all that said, added more in the way of sleet throughout
the entire forecast area and dialed back surface temperatures
slightly based on the new NAM. This increased ice totals by a
few hundreths for most of the region.
A strong area of low pressure will track from the Carolinas to
basically right over our forecast area tonight into Monday
morning, before quickly pulling away to the northeast throughout
the day on Monday. Ahead of this system, snow will overspread
the area from south to north this evening ahead of a warm front
on the northern edge of the system. Latest 12Z guidance has
trended towards more QPF in the 00Z-06Z timeframe (7PM-1AM EST).
With temperature profiles supporting all snow at the onset, this
means that snow amounts have been increased for that timeframe,
especially for Northeast PA-Southern Tier of NY. This will be a
quick thump of snow, with snowfall rates reaching up to 1 inch
per hour at times. With a warmer southeast flow coming in off
the Atlantic, warmer air aloft will change the snow to a wintry
mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from south to north
tonight. Parts of the Wyoming Valley in PA will likely change to
plain rain after midnight. Best chance for precipitation to
remain all snow will be across the Central-Southern Tier of NY
and the southern Finger Lakes, and therefore this where our
highest snowfall amounts are forecasted to be.
With the low tracking almost right over our area, a dry slot is
expected to move into the region by dawn Monday morning. This
will allow the heavier precipitation to begin to become much
lighter in nature, with perhaps even a few dry breaks. As the
storm pulls away Monday afternoon, cold air advection will allow
winds to shift to a more northwesterly direction. Therefore, any
remaining wintry mix will gradually change back over to light to
moderate snow, especially across Central NY.
Due to the higher QPF expected between 7PM and 1AM tonight and
the associated higher snowfall totals during this timeframe,
storm total snowfall has also increased a bit from our previous
forecast. In total, now expecting a swath of 8-12 inches of snow
for much of the Finger Lakes Region and the Central-Southern
Tier. Farther east (in the vicinity of the I-81 corridor),
downsloping winds off the Catskills and Poconos, as well as a
wintry mix after midnight will likely deflate totals a bit,
with generally 5-9 inches of snow expected. Then totals
increase once again towards the Poconos and Catskills with some
orographic lifting. At least a light glaze of ice is expected
for the majority of the area too. Despite the storm being on
our doorstep, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding these totals. If precipitation changes to a wintry mix
sooner, snow totals may be a little lower and ice accumulations
may be a little higher.
In addition, winds will become quite gusty tonight, with
widespread gusts of 30-40 mph. Some areas east of I-81
(especially the higher elevations) may have gusts of 40-50 mph.
The combination of heavy snow, ice, and these winds may cause
some power outages.
In terms of headlines, opted to upgrade most of the Winter
Weather Advisories that were previously in effect to Winter
Storm Warnings (except for Luzerne and Wyoming counties in PA).
While coverage of snow amounts may not technically reach the
typical warning criteria threshold of 7 inches in 12 hours in
NY; 6 inches in 12 hours in PA across all of these counties (at
least 50 percent coverage), opted to issue Winter Storm
Warnings based on the high impacts after coordinating with our
surrounding offices. As previously mentioned, the combination
of heavy snow, ice, and gusty winds will cause problems. On top
of this, the ground will take a much longer time to warm up due
to the arctic airmass that has been in place the last couple of
days. This may enhance icing impacts on surfaces. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect for Luzerne and Wyoming counties
with considerably less snow and ice expected.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering snow showers will remain as the low pressure system pushes
off to the NE. NW flow will fill in behind the low, bringing another
shot of cold air to the area. 850mb temps will fall from -12C to -
16C throughout the night, allowing for lake effect snow to develop
across the northern counties. Streamlines show a connection to the
Georgian Bay so inland extent of the lake effect snow could reach
into Otsego county through the early morning hours. This connection
is short lived as a ridge builds in from the Great Lakes, changing
the wind pattern and advecting in dry, stable air. Lake effect
showers should last through the morning and will diminish by early
afternoon. Current snow accumulations are expected to be 1-3 inches
across Onondaga, NW Madison and western Oneida Counties.
Cold air advection from the NW flow will allow for lows to drop into
the mid teens to low 20s Monday night, with highs on Tuesday
expected to only rise a few degrees from the overnight lows.
The ridge will quickly traverse the region ahead of the next clipper
system moving into the area from the Great Lakes. Isentropic lift
associated with a warm front pushing into the area overnight Tuesday
into Tuesday morning. A rain/snow mix is expected Wednesday
afternoon as WAA will raise afternoon highs into the low to mid 30s.
SW flow will allow for the Southern Tug Hill to have the best chance
for accumulating snow through Wednesday afternoon.
The clipper will pull a cold front through the CWA as it leaves the
area Wednesday afternoon. Scattered light scattered snow showers
will spread across the area as the front passes. More lake effect
snow is expected north of the Thruway through the overnight hours.
Currently, the wind pattern is set up for scattered, diffuse showers
coming off Lake Ontario instead of a band forming. Evening temps in
the low 30s will slowly fall to the mid to upper teens by daybreak.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue into Thursday and
Thursday night as Arctic air makes another return to the area.
Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be in the negative
single digits to just above zero across the area.
The synoptic pattern through the weekend is still in question
as a trough digs into the eastern US. Confidence in
precipitation across the area is low so NBM guidance was relied
upon for the forecast period.
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow has moved in from S to N bringing IFR or worse conditions
to all terminals. Precip will begin to transition to a mixed
precip from S to N, starting around 4z and will make its way to
RME by around 9z. With the sleet and freezing rain mixing in,
visibility improves but cigs stay IFR through the night. A very
strong LLJ moves through as well with strong LLWS at all
terminals. A surface inversion keeps most of the stronger winds
from mixing down to the surface, with the exception of AVP
where downslope flow off the Poconos. The wind shear slackens
as the center of the low pressure moves N through the region
tomorrow morning with winds slackening and shifting to the W to
NW. Wrap around moisture keeps the low cigs through most of the
day tomorrow along with continued snow showers for CNY
terminals. AVP starts to dry out the low levels late with cigs
rising to MVFR.
Monday afternoon...Restrictions likely in snow showers in the
afternoon. Strong northwest wind gusts by the afternoon.
Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions possible at the
Central NY terminals due to lake effect snow showers and clouds.
Wednesday...Restrictions in scattered rain and snow showers,
Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions in Lake Effect
snow a showers and low clouds, mostly over NY.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for PAZ038>040-044-
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for PAZ043-047.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for NYZ009-015>018-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
428 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 116 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022
Satellite and RAP analysis indicates high pressure over the
western CONUS resulting mainly clear skies, other then a few high
clouds moving over the area. Afternoon temperatures have warmed up
more than previously forecasted so opted to raise them into the
mid 50s mainly area wide for the remainder of the afternoon. The
wind forecast has remained on track with 12-18 knot sustained
winds with the occasional 25-30+ knot gust when mixing is able to
tap into the top of the ML layer where slightly stronger winds
reside. Through the remainder of the afternoon, am watching an
area of mid to low clouds over central Nebraska. Latest HREF sky
guidance did indicate this scenario but with it dissipating as it
reaches Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Tonight, clear skies
are anticipated. Overnight lows were raised slightly due to the
lows last night not getting as cold as expected due to high
clouds. Despite the lack of clouds tonight, currently expect
temperatures to behave the same due to westerly downsloping effect
before they turn southwesterly during the early morning with WAA
moving into the area.
MLK Day, expecting even warmer temperatures as 850mb temps near 11
degrees Celsius and southwesterly flow during the morning.
Widespread afternoon high temperatures in the 60s is expected due
to this. Winds will be fairly breezy during the morning hours from
the southwest with gusts up to 25 knots expected (especially south
of Interstate 70); winds will then turn northwesterly and wane in
intensity. Due to the warmer temperatures, the southwesterly flow
will advect drier air into the area as well resulting in elevated
fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the mid to upper
teens along and west of Kansas Highway 25. The lowest RH and
strongest winds are not anticipated to coincide which should
minimize the overall fire weather threats. Clouds move in from
west to east going into Monday night as overnight lows fall into
the mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022
Tuesday, temperatures become more tricky as a strong cold front
approaches the area. Ahead of the front 850mb temperatures are
similar to Monday near 11 C. Guidance has been struggling so far
with the timing of the front, with this forecast package current
expectations is for it to move into portions of Yuma County during
the early afternoon and progress to the SE throughout the rest of
the afternoon and into the evening. Afternoon highs are currently
forecasted in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s over the area but this
is highly dependent on the speed of the front. Elevated to near
critical fire weather is again expected as winds will be breezy
from the west and switching to the north with gusts up to 30 mph
especially along and just behind the front where an 8-10mb
pressure change over 6 hours behind the front. RH values are also
anticipated to drop into the mid to upper teens over the area
just ahead of the front. Overnight lows are expected to fall into
the mid to upper teens over the area with the breezy northerly
winds continuing leading to wind chills in the single digits for
Wednesday, cold temperatures will persist through the day as many
locations will struggle to get above freezing. An area of light
wintry precipitation is anticipated to develop across the
Nebraska Panhandle and overspread the remainder of the CWA through
the night Wednesday and into Thursday. Confidence is somewhat low
regarding the overall development of this system currently as
guidance is struggling with the location and magnitude of the
event; the GFS currently has the the entire area dry whereas the
ECMWF has the majority of the precipitation along the KS/NE
border. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday with perhaps even
colder daytime highs as 850mb temperatures are near -10 C.
Confidence significantly decreases into the latter portion of the
extended period. It appears a warming trend is possible with highs
in the low 40s to low 50s and dry conditions are currently
forecasted, which coincides with the CPC`s 6-10 day outlook for
near normal to above normal temperatures.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northerly winds will turn to
the southwest by 12z behind the exiting surface ridge. Monday a
surface trough will move through causing the winds to turn
back to the northwest during the afternoon.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
708 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
A low pressure system tracking northeast through the region
is resulting in wintry precipitation that will change to all
snow to much of the area through tonight. Scattered snow showers
are likely Monday as an upper level disturbance moves through
the Ohio Valley. Additional precipitation chances arrive
midweek, with overall temperatures remaining generally below
normal through the upcoming week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
00Z ILN sounding shows a warm nose of 1.5C at 2900 ft AGL. This
is much warmer than any numerical guidance was showing,
including most recent HRRR and RAP runs. Thus precipitation type
has been a wintry mix with many areas reporting extended periods
of sleet and/or freezing rain.
Still believe that guidance trends are correct in that lower
levels will be cooling soon resulting in a change over to snow.
Already starting to see that in northeast Kentucky and south
central Ohio. So forecast update blended observed conditions
into previous forecast over the next few hours. However, that is
going to result in a decrease in snow amounts with an inclusion
of some ice.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Even though the primary surface low will have already exited the
region, additional snow accumulations will be possible again on
Monday as a H5 S/W trough swings through the ILN FA. Model
soundings show a period from near daybreak through the late
afternoon hours where steep low-level lapse rates, weak
instability and saturation near -10C will provide scattered
snow showers across most /if not all/ of the area during the
daytime period. Trended PoPs even higher and with higher SLRs
present on Monday with the colder, drier air mass building in,
it won`t take much liquid-equivalent precip to accumulate snow
to a few tenths of an inch. Wouldn`t be surprised if a few spots
pick up around a half an inch or so of additional snowfall,
which may create minor travel issues with the subfreezing
pavement temps. Additionally, gusty winds of 20-30 MPH may also
create some reduced visibilities where snow is occurring
(especially in heavier bursts of snow shower activity), and may
allow snow that has already fallen to drift back onto roadways.
The snow shower activity will wane very late in the day, but a
favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan, as well as some saturation
in the DGZ, will keep flurries probably going for locations
near/north of I-70 into the evening. Highs Monday will top out
around 30 degrees with that brisk WNW wind. We dry out Monday
night as temps dip into the teens and lower 20s. A few spots
with a healthy snowpack may dip into the lower teens.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period begins with a fairly deep H5 trough propagating towards
the eastern CONUS. As this trough pushes eastward away from the Ohio
Valley, flow aloft will turn from northwesterly to westerly during
the day Tuesday. A broad area of surface high pressure nudges in
from the southeastern US and will offer a brief period of dry
conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures trend closer to
seasonal normals on Tuesday and will actually climb a few degrees
above normals for Wednesday in the lower to middle 40s.
A low pressure system tracking eastward through the northern Plains
and Great Lakes region will swing a cold front through the ILN fa
later in the day Wednesday. Ahead of the front, we will see
increasing PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Thermal profiles across much of
our CWA will support efficient melting of the ice crystals and thus
favor more rain than snow. However, locations around and north of I-
70 appear to mix in more snow than rain. With warmer pavement/ground
temps and most ice crystals melting, accumulating snowfall seems
limited and doesn`t appear to have any major impacts as of now. Will
continue to monitor trends in p-type based on thermal profiles for
the pcpn Wednesday and Wednesday night.
An arctic air mass settles in on Thursday and provides us with some
of the coldest temperatures of the year for a multi-day period.
Across the fa, high temperatures are expected to remain in the 20s
both Thursday and Friday. Additionally, low temperatures in the
single digits may be felt for a number of locations. Fortunately,
the weather pattern does remain dry during this time frame as
surface high pressure out of Canada builds across the Midwest.
A subtle increase in temperatures (but still below seasonal norms)
will be felt across the Ohio Valley next weekend, but the overall
flow pattern will still be characterized by a trough over the
Midwest with several embedded shortwave troughs ejecting through.
The lack of appreciable moisture in this dry air mass keeps the fa
dry for now across majority of global model and ensemble members,
but would not be surprised to observe light precipitation scoot
through portions of our fa next weekend with some of this upper-
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
May still see some freezing rain or sleet at some of the
terminals for another hour or two. But after that expect
precipitation to be all snow. Conditions will be IFR or lower at
the Columbus terminals as well as KILN during the early part of
the TAF period with improvement after 07Z. At other locations
may see a brief visibility drop to IFR but otherwise remain MVFR
or better. There will be improvement at from KDAY to KCVG/KLUK
between 03Z and 05Z.
Although flight conditions will temporarily improve, winds will
be backing and strengthening. Another disturbance will drop
across the region around or just after 12Z. This will bring
scattered snow showers and MVFR ceilings. Enough uncertainty in
coverage that far out in time to only use VCSH, but there will
be the potential to have visibility drops to IFR. West northwest
winds may gusts to around 25 kt during the day. Ceilings may
start to improve late in the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ046-054-
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ056-064-065-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ093-
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ099-100.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
826 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Issued an SPS
for black ice and hazardous travel due to refreezing overnight.
Expect more sun for Monday and additional melting of ice and snow.
Temperatures will rise into the 40s.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022/
Quiet weather will prevail across the Midsouth through Tuesday,
with temperatures gradually warming in the wake of this morning`s
winter storm. Typically, in the wake of such a system,
temperatures will cool efficiently with fresh snow cover, clearing
skies and light winds. However, quite a bit of melting has
occurred today, as clouds have cleared from west to east. HRRR and
NAM continue to depict low stratus reforming and expanding
southeast from the Ozarks through the Midsouth overnight. Where
this occurs, radiational cooling will inhibited. Tonight`s
forecast low is in the lower range of guidance, closest to the
NBM10. However, this still doesn`t allow much room for cooling
this evening, when/if the lower cloud deck arrives.
The big feature for this forecast... A potent Arctic cold front
remains on track for a Wednesday passage through, accompanied by
a low amplitude midlevel trof. Light rain appears likely along and
behind the front, aided by precipitable water values around 0.8
inches. Cold and dry air will surge into the Midsouth Wednesday
night, with perhaps just enough lingering moisture for light snow
or flurries in the evening. The main impact from this system will
be sharply colder temperatures. Wind chills Thursday and Friday
mornings will not likely fall into advisory levels (0F or colder),
but it will be close over northeast AR through the MO bootheel
and northwest TN.
The Arctic airmass will be with us through late week, gradually
modifying with sunshine and light return flow on Saturday. The
weekend appears dry, but will need to keep an eye out for
additional upstream clipper type waves diving southeast from the
northern plains. In addition, the GFS hints at southern branch
moisture along the gulf coast. January is not likely finished
bringing active weather to the Midsouth.
Some residual MVFR ceilings may persist at MEM and TUP for the
next hour or two. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail
for at least part of the evening. Thereafter low clouds may build
back in across the area, at MKL/TUP overnight and at MEM/JBR
towards morning as moisture becomes trapped below an inversion.
VFR conditions will return towards tomorrow evening. NW winds
between 6-11 kts will become light towards tomorrow evening.