Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/17/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
607 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Key Points - Risk remains for freezing drizzle/light snow along and west of the Mississippi River Valley before midnight tonight. - Quiet and seasonable temperatures for Monday. The earlier band of light snow accompanying the passage of a mid to upper tropospheric trough has exited the forecast area with low stratus funneling southeastward in its wake. This stratus is preceding a meridional warm frontal boundary demarcating a downslope-modified airmass working eastward from western Minnesota. The increasing WAA this evening should result in high temperatures in the 20s being reached this evening/overnight before midnight. As 280K isentropic ascent and theta-e advection increase over the near-surface warm frontal surface, there remains a risk of a freezing drizzle/snow mix starting around 22-00Z and continuing through about 06Z. HRRR forecast soundings all day have been steadfast in depicting a -10 to -15 ubar/sec bullseye right through the lowest 150 mb of the saturated sounding profile and low enough static stability to possibly lead to shower development in addition to a more stratiform/drizzle scenario. The biggest question revolves around whether we see ice nucleation in the column. Forecast profiles from the various HREF inputs depict the saturation flirting around the -8 to -10 C layer at times, therefore kept a wintry mix for wording in the forecast. The overall threat looks to be transient, lasting for 3-5 hours at a given location before negative theta-e advection behind a cold front ensues and cuts off the moisture. As we go into the day on Monday, a progressive, low-amplitude ridge slides through and keeps the sensible weather at bay. The main uncertainty will revolve around cloud cover and given the light wind profiles during the day, conditions are unlikely to vary much through the day. There will be a weak push of CAA tonight after 06Z behind the cold front, but weak southwesterly flow ensuing by Monday afternoon should result in temperatures rising back to near average for afternoon highs. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Key Points - Light snow Tuesday/Tuesday night followed by strong winds Tuesday night could lead to blowing and drifting of snow. - Very cold for Wednesday through Friday with overnight wind chill values of -15 to -35, coldest west of the Mississippi River. The next significant weather system of note arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night as a compact, but well-defined, clipper PV lobe slides across the ND/Canadian border and tracks through northern Minnesota. The GEFS/EPS guidance suite has struggled to bring QPF south of I-94, but the SREF and deterministic NAM/GFS profiles would suggest at least some risk of precipitation with both the WAA isentropic ascent during the day on Tuesday and then again with the push of CAA with the cold front on Tuesday night. For now have kept the forecast as all snow given the uncertainties in the thermodynamic profiles, but if confidence grows that there will be precip along and south of I-94 during the day, may need to introduce a wintry mix to the forecast with the H700-500 dry slot cutting eastward around the south side of the low during the course of the day. Strong CAA ensues on Tuesday night as a potent cold front slams southeastward through the forecast area. Maintained slight chance PoPs through the overnight hours for frontal/post-frontal snow showers. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 40 mph, arrive behind the front as well and could lead to blowing snow conditions for any snow showers that do develop. After a mild day on Tuesday, temperatures plummet through the night and reach the single digits for Wednesday morning. The cold air lingers for Wednesday through Friday under a 1040-mb high pressure cell. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to climb out of the single digits above zero and on Thursday many locales will not get above zero. Wind chills fall to dangerous levels and will likely necessitate headlines as we get closer to the event. Saturday features the next chance of snow as the cold pattern departs. There remains ample uncertainty in the details of the system, but confidence is growing that this will bring some snow to the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 MVFR/IFR ceilings with a little light snow or a freezing drizzle snow mix early in the TAF period. Northwest winds over the next couple of hours strengthen with gusts 15 to 25kts. Forecast soundings show the low level moisture sticks around through the TAF period and beyond. Continue to mention MVFR ceilings with periodic IFR ceilings. The northwest winds lighten Monday and could see some light fog develop around RST, but will not mention at this time. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Skow LONG TERM...Skow AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1036 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong winter storm will bring accumulating snow, an icy mix, and gusty winds to the area tonight and Monday. Accumulating lake effect snow will follow Monday night into Tuesday. A clipper system will bring another chance for light rain and snow to the area midweek, with Arctic air returning late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... So far the airmass is saturating a bit faster than modeled this evening. Another general tick upward in QPF occurred with some of the latest mesoscale guidance earlier this evening but has leveled off since. This overall has raised snow totals by an inch or so for most locations west of I-81. Travel conditions will start to worsen rapidly an hour or two after the snow starts. The latest 00Z 1/17 NAM has trended colder with surface temperatures as well but sends a warm pocket of air at 850 mb northwestward across the region for a time around midnight. Also a warm nose advances northward from the 850 and 925 mb levels northwest as well through the region. So far the NAM,RGEM and HRRR have a decent handle of the warm layer while the 18Z GFS 1/16 is too cold. With all that said, added more in the way of sleet throughout the entire forecast area and dialed back surface temperatures slightly based on the new NAM. This increased ice totals by a few hundreths for most of the region. Previous... A strong area of low pressure will track from the Carolinas to basically right over our forecast area tonight into Monday morning, before quickly pulling away to the northeast throughout the day on Monday. Ahead of this system, snow will overspread the area from south to north this evening ahead of a warm front on the northern edge of the system. Latest 12Z guidance has trended towards more QPF in the 00Z-06Z timeframe (7PM-1AM EST). With temperature profiles supporting all snow at the onset, this means that snow amounts have been increased for that timeframe, especially for Northeast PA-Southern Tier of NY. This will be a quick thump of snow, with snowfall rates reaching up to 1 inch per hour at times. With a warmer southeast flow coming in off the Atlantic, warmer air aloft will change the snow to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from south to north tonight. Parts of the Wyoming Valley in PA will likely change to plain rain after midnight. Best chance for precipitation to remain all snow will be across the Central-Southern Tier of NY and the southern Finger Lakes, and therefore this where our highest snowfall amounts are forecasted to be. With the low tracking almost right over our area, a dry slot is expected to move into the region by dawn Monday morning. This will allow the heavier precipitation to begin to become much lighter in nature, with perhaps even a few dry breaks. As the storm pulls away Monday afternoon, cold air advection will allow winds to shift to a more northwesterly direction. Therefore, any remaining wintry mix will gradually change back over to light to moderate snow, especially across Central NY. Due to the higher QPF expected between 7PM and 1AM tonight and the associated higher snowfall totals during this timeframe, storm total snowfall has also increased a bit from our previous forecast. In total, now expecting a swath of 8-12 inches of snow for much of the Finger Lakes Region and the Central-Southern Tier. Farther east (in the vicinity of the I-81 corridor), downsloping winds off the Catskills and Poconos, as well as a wintry mix after midnight will likely deflate totals a bit, with generally 5-9 inches of snow expected. Then totals increase once again towards the Poconos and Catskills with some orographic lifting. At least a light glaze of ice is expected for the majority of the area too. Despite the storm being on our doorstep, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding these totals. If precipitation changes to a wintry mix sooner, snow totals may be a little lower and ice accumulations may be a little higher. In addition, winds will become quite gusty tonight, with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph. Some areas east of I-81 (especially the higher elevations) may have gusts of 40-50 mph. The combination of heavy snow, ice, and these winds may cause some power outages. In terms of headlines, opted to upgrade most of the Winter Weather Advisories that were previously in effect to Winter Storm Warnings (except for Luzerne and Wyoming counties in PA). While coverage of snow amounts may not technically reach the typical warning criteria threshold of 7 inches in 12 hours in NY; 6 inches in 12 hours in PA across all of these counties (at least 50 percent coverage), opted to issue Winter Storm Warnings based on the high impacts after coordinating with our surrounding offices. As previously mentioned, the combination of heavy snow, ice, and gusty winds will cause problems. On top of this, the ground will take a much longer time to warm up due to the arctic airmass that has been in place the last couple of days. This may enhance icing impacts on surfaces. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Luzerne and Wyoming counties with considerably less snow and ice expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Lingering snow showers will remain as the low pressure system pushes off to the NE. NW flow will fill in behind the low, bringing another shot of cold air to the area. 850mb temps will fall from -12C to - 16C throughout the night, allowing for lake effect snow to develop across the northern counties. Streamlines show a connection to the Georgian Bay so inland extent of the lake effect snow could reach into Otsego county through the early morning hours. This connection is short lived as a ridge builds in from the Great Lakes, changing the wind pattern and advecting in dry, stable air. Lake effect showers should last through the morning and will diminish by early afternoon. Current snow accumulations are expected to be 1-3 inches across Onondaga, NW Madison and western Oneida Counties. Cold air advection from the NW flow will allow for lows to drop into the mid teens to low 20s Monday night, with highs on Tuesday expected to only rise a few degrees from the overnight lows. The ridge will quickly traverse the region ahead of the next clipper system moving into the area from the Great Lakes. Isentropic lift associated with a warm front pushing into the area overnight Tuesday into Tuesday morning. A rain/snow mix is expected Wednesday afternoon as WAA will raise afternoon highs into the low to mid 30s. SW flow will allow for the Southern Tug Hill to have the best chance for accumulating snow through Wednesday afternoon. The clipper will pull a cold front through the CWA as it leaves the area Wednesday afternoon. Scattered light scattered snow showers will spread across the area as the front passes. More lake effect snow is expected north of the Thruway through the overnight hours. Currently, the wind pattern is set up for scattered, diffuse showers coming off Lake Ontario instead of a band forming. Evening temps in the low 30s will slowly fall to the mid to upper teens by daybreak. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow showers will continue into Thursday and Thursday night as Arctic air makes another return to the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be in the negative single digits to just above zero across the area. The synoptic pattern through the weekend is still in question as a trough digs into the eastern US. Confidence in precipitation across the area is low so NBM guidance was relied upon for the forecast period. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Snow has moved in from S to N bringing IFR or worse conditions to all terminals. Precip will begin to transition to a mixed precip from S to N, starting around 4z and will make its way to RME by around 9z. With the sleet and freezing rain mixing in, visibility improves but cigs stay IFR through the night. A very strong LLJ moves through as well with strong LLWS at all terminals. A surface inversion keeps most of the stronger winds from mixing down to the surface, with the exception of AVP where downslope flow off the Poconos. The wind shear slackens as the center of the low pressure moves N through the region tomorrow morning with winds slackening and shifting to the W to NW. Wrap around moisture keeps the low cigs through most of the day tomorrow along with continued snow showers for CNY terminals. AVP starts to dry out the low levels late with cigs rising to MVFR. Outlook... Monday afternoon...Restrictions likely in snow showers in the afternoon. Strong northwest wind gusts by the afternoon. Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals due to lake effect snow showers and clouds. Wednesday...Restrictions in scattered rain and snow showers, especially NY. Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions in Lake Effect snow a showers and low clouds, mostly over NY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for PAZ038>040-044- 048-072. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for PAZ043-047. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG/JTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
428 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Morning) Issued at 116 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Satellite and RAP analysis indicates high pressure over the western CONUS resulting mainly clear skies, other then a few high clouds moving over the area. Afternoon temperatures have warmed up more than previously forecasted so opted to raise them into the mid 50s mainly area wide for the remainder of the afternoon. The wind forecast has remained on track with 12-18 knot sustained winds with the occasional 25-30+ knot gust when mixing is able to tap into the top of the ML layer where slightly stronger winds reside. Through the remainder of the afternoon, am watching an area of mid to low clouds over central Nebraska. Latest HREF sky guidance did indicate this scenario but with it dissipating as it reaches Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Tonight, clear skies are anticipated. Overnight lows were raised slightly due to the lows last night not getting as cold as expected due to high clouds. Despite the lack of clouds tonight, currently expect temperatures to behave the same due to westerly downsloping effect before they turn southwesterly during the early morning with WAA moving into the area. MLK Day, expecting even warmer temperatures as 850mb temps near 11 degrees Celsius and southwesterly flow during the morning. Widespread afternoon high temperatures in the 60s is expected due to this. Winds will be fairly breezy during the morning hours from the southwest with gusts up to 25 knots expected (especially south of Interstate 70); winds will then turn northwesterly and wane in intensity. Due to the warmer temperatures, the southwesterly flow will advect drier air into the area as well resulting in elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens along and west of Kansas Highway 25. The lowest RH and strongest winds are not anticipated to coincide which should minimize the overall fire weather threats. Clouds move in from west to east going into Monday night as overnight lows fall into the mid 20s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 116 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 Tuesday, temperatures become more tricky as a strong cold front approaches the area. Ahead of the front 850mb temperatures are similar to Monday near 11 C. Guidance has been struggling so far with the timing of the front, with this forecast package current expectations is for it to move into portions of Yuma County during the early afternoon and progress to the SE throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Afternoon highs are currently forecasted in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s over the area but this is highly dependent on the speed of the front. Elevated to near critical fire weather is again expected as winds will be breezy from the west and switching to the north with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and just behind the front where an 8-10mb pressure change over 6 hours behind the front. RH values are also anticipated to drop into the mid to upper teens over the area just ahead of the front. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid to upper teens over the area with the breezy northerly winds continuing leading to wind chills in the single digits for Thursday morning. Wednesday, cold temperatures will persist through the day as many locations will struggle to get above freezing. An area of light wintry precipitation is anticipated to develop across the Nebraska Panhandle and overspread the remainder of the CWA through the night Wednesday and into Thursday. Confidence is somewhat low regarding the overall development of this system currently as guidance is struggling with the location and magnitude of the event; the GFS currently has the the entire area dry whereas the ECMWF has the majority of the precipitation along the KS/NE border. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday with perhaps even colder daytime highs as 850mb temperatures are near -10 C. Confidence significantly decreases into the latter portion of the extended period. It appears a warming trend is possible with highs in the low 40s to low 50s and dry conditions are currently forecasted, which coincides with the CPC`s 6-10 day outlook for near normal to above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022 VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northerly winds will turn to the southwest by 12z behind the exiting surface ridge. Monday a surface trough will move through causing the winds to turn back to the northwest during the afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...JTL
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
708 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system tracking northeast through the region is resulting in wintry precipitation that will change to all snow to much of the area through tonight. Scattered snow showers are likely Monday as an upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. Additional precipitation chances arrive midweek, with overall temperatures remaining generally below normal through the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 00Z ILN sounding shows a warm nose of 1.5C at 2900 ft AGL. This is much warmer than any numerical guidance was showing, including most recent HRRR and RAP runs. Thus precipitation type has been a wintry mix with many areas reporting extended periods of sleet and/or freezing rain. Still believe that guidance trends are correct in that lower levels will be cooling soon resulting in a change over to snow. Already starting to see that in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. So forecast update blended observed conditions into previous forecast over the next few hours. However, that is going to result in a decrease in snow amounts with an inclusion of some ice. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Even though the primary surface low will have already exited the region, additional snow accumulations will be possible again on Monday as a H5 S/W trough swings through the ILN FA. Model soundings show a period from near daybreak through the late afternoon hours where steep low-level lapse rates, weak instability and saturation near -10C will provide scattered snow showers across most /if not all/ of the area during the daytime period. Trended PoPs even higher and with higher SLRs present on Monday with the colder, drier air mass building in, it won`t take much liquid-equivalent precip to accumulate snow to a few tenths of an inch. Wouldn`t be surprised if a few spots pick up around a half an inch or so of additional snowfall, which may create minor travel issues with the subfreezing pavement temps. Additionally, gusty winds of 20-30 MPH may also create some reduced visibilities where snow is occurring (especially in heavier bursts of snow shower activity), and may allow snow that has already fallen to drift back onto roadways. The snow shower activity will wane very late in the day, but a favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan, as well as some saturation in the DGZ, will keep flurries probably going for locations near/north of I-70 into the evening. Highs Monday will top out around 30 degrees with that brisk WNW wind. We dry out Monday night as temps dip into the teens and lower 20s. A few spots with a healthy snowpack may dip into the lower teens. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The period begins with a fairly deep H5 trough propagating towards the eastern CONUS. As this trough pushes eastward away from the Ohio Valley, flow aloft will turn from northwesterly to westerly during the day Tuesday. A broad area of surface high pressure nudges in from the southeastern US and will offer a brief period of dry conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures trend closer to seasonal normals on Tuesday and will actually climb a few degrees above normals for Wednesday in the lower to middle 40s. A low pressure system tracking eastward through the northern Plains and Great Lakes region will swing a cold front through the ILN fa later in the day Wednesday. Ahead of the front, we will see increasing PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Thermal profiles across much of our CWA will support efficient melting of the ice crystals and thus favor more rain than snow. However, locations around and north of I- 70 appear to mix in more snow than rain. With warmer pavement/ground temps and most ice crystals melting, accumulating snowfall seems limited and doesn`t appear to have any major impacts as of now. Will continue to monitor trends in p-type based on thermal profiles for the pcpn Wednesday and Wednesday night. An arctic air mass settles in on Thursday and provides us with some of the coldest temperatures of the year for a multi-day period. Across the fa, high temperatures are expected to remain in the 20s both Thursday and Friday. Additionally, low temperatures in the single digits may be felt for a number of locations. Fortunately, the weather pattern does remain dry during this time frame as surface high pressure out of Canada builds across the Midwest. A subtle increase in temperatures (but still below seasonal norms) will be felt across the Ohio Valley next weekend, but the overall flow pattern will still be characterized by a trough over the Midwest with several embedded shortwave troughs ejecting through. The lack of appreciable moisture in this dry air mass keeps the fa dry for now across majority of global model and ensemble members, but would not be surprised to observe light precipitation scoot through portions of our fa next weekend with some of this upper- level energy. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... May still see some freezing rain or sleet at some of the terminals for another hour or two. But after that expect precipitation to be all snow. Conditions will be IFR or lower at the Columbus terminals as well as KILN during the early part of the TAF period with improvement after 07Z. At other locations may see a brief visibility drop to IFR but otherwise remain MVFR or better. There will be improvement at from KDAY to KCVG/KLUK between 03Z and 05Z. Although flight conditions will temporarily improve, winds will be backing and strengthening. Another disturbance will drop across the region around or just after 12Z. This will bring scattered snow showers and MVFR ceilings. Enough uncertainty in coverage that far out in time to only use VCSH, but there will be the potential to have visibility drops to IFR. West northwest winds may gusts to around 25 kt during the day. Ceilings may start to improve late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ046-054- 055-063-072-078-079. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ056-064-065- 073-074-080>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ093- 096>098. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ099-100. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
826 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 .UPDATE... No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Issued an SPS for black ice and hazardous travel due to refreezing overnight. Expect more sun for Monday and additional melting of ice and snow. Temperatures will rise into the 40s. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022/ DISCUSSION... Quiet weather will prevail across the Midsouth through Tuesday, with temperatures gradually warming in the wake of this morning`s winter storm. Typically, in the wake of such a system, temperatures will cool efficiently with fresh snow cover, clearing skies and light winds. However, quite a bit of melting has occurred today, as clouds have cleared from west to east. HRRR and NAM continue to depict low stratus reforming and expanding southeast from the Ozarks through the Midsouth overnight. Where this occurs, radiational cooling will inhibited. Tonight`s forecast low is in the lower range of guidance, closest to the NBM10. However, this still doesn`t allow much room for cooling this evening, when/if the lower cloud deck arrives. The big feature for this forecast... A potent Arctic cold front remains on track for a Wednesday passage through, accompanied by a low amplitude midlevel trof. Light rain appears likely along and behind the front, aided by precipitable water values around 0.8 inches. Cold and dry air will surge into the Midsouth Wednesday night, with perhaps just enough lingering moisture for light snow or flurries in the evening. The main impact from this system will be sharply colder temperatures. Wind chills Thursday and Friday mornings will not likely fall into advisory levels (0F or colder), but it will be close over northeast AR through the MO bootheel and northwest TN. The Arctic airmass will be with us through late week, gradually modifying with sunshine and light return flow on Saturday. The weekend appears dry, but will need to keep an eye out for additional upstream clipper type waves diving southeast from the northern plains. In addition, the GFS hints at southern branch moisture along the gulf coast. January is not likely finished bringing active weather to the Midsouth. PWB AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Some residual MVFR ceilings may persist at MEM and TUP for the next hour or two. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail for at least part of the evening. Thereafter low clouds may build back in across the area, at MKL/TUP overnight and at MEM/JBR towards morning as moisture becomes trapped below an inversion. VFR conditions will return towards tomorrow evening. NW winds between 6-11 kts will become light towards tomorrow evening. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$