Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/14/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
1051 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will gradually push through the region tonight resulting in some spotty snow showers or patchy freezing drizzle in the higher terrain areas northwest of the Capital District. Then, winds shift to the north tomorrow allowing an arctic air mass to drain into the region. Increasing winds and the very cold air will result in dangerously cold wind chills tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Temperatures are expected to moderate on Sunday ahead of a strong storm system that`s expected to bring gusty winds and accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. Snow could become wintry mix over the valleys on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1030pm...Weak reflectivities continue to stream into the southern Adirondacks ahead of cold front currently pushing slowly southeastward towards the Tug Hill. With sfc temperatures still in the low 30s. Latest GOES16 IR satellite shows cloud top temperatures are not terribly cold and combined with fcst soundings supporting marginally cloud tops, the p-type could be either snow or freezing drizzle. Latest ob from RME shows "unknown precipitation" so that supports the idea of potentially wintry mix instead of all snow. We already have a Special Weather Statement in effect until 3am to account for possible icy spots and we will let this ride. Further south in the Capital District and mid-Hudson Valley where the thicker clouds have yet to arrive, the nighttime low temperatures are in currently in place with most in the mid to upper 20s. As thicker clouds slide overhead the overnight, temperatures will either stay steady or even rise a few degrees into the upper 20s to near 30. Previous discussion...HREF, RAP and high res NAM suggest as the weakening cold front progresses southeast overnight towards Albany, trace amounts of precip are possible. With sfc temperatures expected to be below freezing and forecast soundings even as far south as Albany showing marginal cloud top temperatures, we may need to expand our Special Weather Statement to account for patchy freezing drizzle and resulting icy spots. For now, we expanded slight chance POPs through the Capital District but we limited freezing drizzle mention and the SPS to the southern Adirondacks. We will keep a close eye on surface observations and radar trends overnight. Otherwise, forecast is on track with overnight lows expected to drop into the teens and 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Wind Chill Watch has been upgraded to a Wind Chill Warning for Herkimer, Hamilton, Bennington, western Windham, and Berkshire Counties... Wind Chill Warning has been expanded to include Schoharie and western Greene Counties... Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for the Capital Region, Lake George/Saratoga area, Mohawk Valley, the Taconics, the mid- Hudson Valley, northwest Connecticut, and eastern Windham County in southern Vermont... The main story during the short term period will be the windy conditions and brief period of Arctic cold air Friday night into Saturday. During the day on Friday, a mid-level trough associated with a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone will become negatively tilted as is head north up the U.S. East Coast. While this storm system will remain off shore keeping us dry, pressure gradient/isobars associated with this developing storm and a strong 1042-1044 hpa Arctic high approaching from the northwest are expected to tighten Friday night. The strong pressure gradients between these two weather features will result in strong winds developing Friday night from the north which will serve as a conduit for very cold Arctic air to seep into the region. 925 mb temperatures ranging between - 20C to -30C Friday night translates to surface temperatures 0F to 5F degrees over the mid-Hudson Valley, 0F to -10F degrees across much of the area including the Capital District, and -10F to -20F degrees over the SW Adirondacks. With northerly winds between 15-25 kts (strongest over western New England), wind chills will range between -10F to -20F along the Hudson Valley, -20 to -35F over the higher elevations with the lowest values of -30F to -35F over the SW Adirondacks. Saturday will remain cold and dry with weaker winds. High temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits most places, low to mid teens mid-Hudson Valley, and below 0F over the SW Adirondacks and southern VT. Saturday night will be cold thanks to plenty of radiational cooling amid clear to mostly clear skies. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the single digits from Albany and points south along the valley, 0F to -5F north of Albany and higher elevations, and -10F to -15F over the SW Adirondacks. Given that winds will be light, wind chill values will not be as cold/dangerous as Friday night`s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be situated over Upstate New York to start Sunday, but will be shifting eastward across New England through the day. With the high pressure in place, skies will be fairly sunny through the entire day with light winds. After a very cold start to the day (many spots below zero in the morning), temps will reach the teens and 20s for highs. While these temps are moderated from Saturday, it`s still below normal. As the high pressure area continues to shift away, clouds will quickly increase for Sunday night as a large storm system over the Southeast starts to head up the coast. Low temps will occur early in the overnight with single digits and teens and temps will start to steadily rise for the late night hours. A large closed off shortwave will be lifting northeast across the Carolinas and Virgina for Sunday night. A strong surface low associated with this shortwave will be deepening as it lifts northward. While models have been having trouble with the exact placement/track of the low, most guidance is starting to agree that the surface low will be tracking near or just inland of the coast through the mid Atlantic coastal plain for Sunday night. A strong east-southeast low level jet will be in place ahead of this approaching storm system. 850 hpa winds will as strong as 50 to 70 kts according to the latest 12z GFS/ECMWF. The GEFS suggest the 850 u winds will be about -3 to -4 STD. This all suggests that a period of heavy precipitation is likely across our area, as strong frontogenesis will occur with plenty of moisture being pulled in off the western Atlantic. With plenty of cold air (both at the surface and aloft), p-type will initially be snow for Sunday night, and a laterally translating band of snowfall (based on CSTAR research) is expected to lift northward across from south to north across the area for the late night hours. Snowfall could begin as early as around midnight for southern areas, but the heaviest rates (exceeding 1 inch per hour at times within the heaviest band) will occur during the late night hours towards daybreak Monday. In addition, the strong e-se flow aloft will allow for very strong winds, especially across western New England and the Taconics. Some gusts may exceed 40 mph across areas of the high terrain that channel this type of flow, which may lead to whiteout conditions and difficult travel. On Monday, the shortwave will be lifting across the Northeast, while another northern stream shortwave swings around the shortwave and dives towards the mid Atlantic States. The track of the surface low is still uncertain as its head across the Northeast for Monday. While some guidance shows it moving directly across or even west of the forecast area, some models (and ensemble members) show it just to the east across the New England. The exact track will have an impact on if precipitation changes to a wintry mix or rain before tapering off for late Monday. At this point, it appears that while steady snowfall will be in place for the entire area to start Monday, a dry slot will likely be lifting through parts of the area for Monday afternoon. The best chance of this occurring would be for eastern areas, while deformation snowfall continues to the north/west of the storm track for Monday afternoon/evening. If the surface low does track far enough west, there could be some warming in the boundary layer for southern and southeastern areas to allow a changeover to rain or freezing rain. Some freezing rain is also possible within the dry slot as well, as the colder cloud tops move away as well for late in the day. Once the surface low finally lifts towards northern New England and southern Canada for Monday night, some additional wraparound/upslope snow showers are possible into Monday night, mainly for northern and high terrain areas. While snowfall amounts are still difficult to determine due to the uncertainty regarding the storm track, p-type concerns and potential dry slot, there is enough confidence for at least a moderate snowfall for much of the area. The best chance of heavy or significant snowfall would be for northwestern areas, although this is subject to change over the next few days, as the track becomes more certain. Behind this departing storm, fairly seasonable temps are expected for the middle of next week, with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits to teens for Tuesday through Thursday. There could be some additional light snow thanks to a northern stream clipper storm from Tuesday night through Wednesday, although amounts will be fairly light. The highest accumulation will likely be across the Adirondacks, although guidance still shows some differing solutions on this system as well. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites with light winds. Although most areas are seeing just bkn high cirrus clouds, there is a patch of lower clouds around 3500 ft at KGFL thanks to a nearby frontal boundary. During the overnight hours, flying conditions will lower down to MVFR for KGFL/KALB/KPSF by the late night hours, as a northerly flow develops and some lower clouds around 2-3 kft develop. KPOU should remain VFR through the entire overnight with just higher clouds in place. Winds through most of the overnight will be light/calm, but will start to develop out of the north around 5 kts after 08z. All sites will likely see MVFR cigs on Friday morning into the early afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. There could be a passing flurry near KGFL in the morning, but moisture is very limited, so it`s not expected to have an impact on visibility. Northerly winds will start to increase for all sites, with 10 to 15 kts by the mid to late morning hours. There could be some higher gusts from time to time as well. Once a cold front passes in the mid afternoon hours, winds will become northwest and increase to around 15 to 18 kts for all sites for the late afternoon and into the evening. Some higher gusts are even possible as well. Clouds will be decreasing by the late afternoon hours, with skies becoming clear for all sites. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SN. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread hydrological problems are not expected in the ALY HSA during the next week. Temperatures will remain below freezing for much of the 7-day forecast, which will allow ice to expand and thicken on area waterways. A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring up to an inch of QPF Sunday night into Monday, with snow transitioning to mixed precip or rain. There is still much uncertainty, however. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001- 013. NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ039>043-048>054-059>061-063>066-082>084. Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM Friday to noon EST Saturday for NYZ032-033-038-047-058. MA...Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM Friday to noon EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for VTZ015. Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM Friday to noon EST Saturday for VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma/Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...Evbuoma LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma/Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
809 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 809 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 18z guidance, specifically the NAM brings more snow accumulation further east. Diving into the details of why this happens and what we need to see in 00z guidance to see if this is a fluke or a trend follows. Snowfall accumulation in the 18z NAM ramps up from 21z to 03z and drops close to 3/4 to one inch an hour for a few hours. This is what increase the eastern snow totals. Looking to forcing, the omegas in the DGZ peak early in the NAM, 15 to 21z and then fall throughout the event. True we get colder, but we see more climo snow ratios at this time. This eastern extension of the higher snow amounts don`t seem to be tied with the heavier axis shifting east, as much as additional snow there. The clipper and better CVA are west of the area, where models have consistently had the heaviest snowfall. The NBM has trended east with an additional inch or so to totals, likely from the 18z guidance. The 00z NAM is starting to come in and is backing off all so slightly from the 18z with eastern amounts. Will need to keep an eye on 00z GFS along with ensemble data, which continues to suggest the current forecast is correct. While the differences here are amounts, the impacts are likely to be unchanged unless we can see 1+ inches and hour and drier snow blowing around. With wet snow to start, one would think that the current snowpack would be more sticky to that than drier snow. 00z guidance, especially ensembles will help fine tune forecast overnight. The 00z HRRR is in and, while not as aggressive as the 18z NAM, does have more snow east. This solution would point towards a possible extension of the warning east by one column of counties. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Low level inversion trapping low stratus/light fog east of the MS River this afternoon, while there was plenty of sunshine across the remainder of the dvn cwa. Where there is bare ground temperatures were in the 40s, but where there was still snow cover readings were in the 30s. There is also low stratus in southern MN/northern IA dropping se. Water vapor shows potent upper low in the Pacific NW, which will be merging with a short wave coming out of Alberta, which then brings our potent clipper system into the Midwest. IR showed extensive mid/high clouds ahead of this system already spreading across the northern Plains, and as far east as western IA (quickly spreading se). && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Tonight: Mid/high clouds will be spreading into the area, while low stratus also develops or spreads over much of the area overnight, as moisture increases from melting snow below the inversion. I will continue to mention patchy fog but not expecting any pcpn as the moisture layer looks shallow. Lows should dip into the 20s. Friday through Saturday: Key Messages: 1. Slight adjustments to the timing and placement of precipitation for the storm system Friday into Saturday morning. 2 Snowfall amounts were adjusted upward for areas west of a Washington to Keokuk to Carthage Iowa line with little changes to the east. 3. Quiet weather is expected Saturday afternoon onward. Discussion: Differences between the models have remained consistent today with little changes in the forecast. The GFS and CAMs are more aggressive bringing snow into the area Friday morning. A potent clipper system will dive into the Plains Friday morning and overspread the region with moderate lift through early Saturday morning. Moisture will quickly increase as this shortwave moves into the area but easterly winds will draw drier air from east into northwest Illinois and far eastern Iowa and slow the overall eastward progression of the snow into Friday afternoon. Most of the area wil see weak to moderate lift throughout the event but expecting the heaviest snow to fall west of a Vinton Memphis Missouri line from 00 to 06 UTC on Tuesday. The GFS has more widespread moisture across the area while the ECWMF and Canadian continue to keep it to our west. Thus the GFS has more widespread higher snowfall totals into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois than the ECWMF and Canadian models. Any further eastward push for this storm system will result in higher totals to the east. Precipitation will slowly come to an end form north of south as the better forcing pushes southward with the exiting wave from north to south. Again models continue to differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation with the GFS having a slower exiting of the wave than the other models. Models are in good agreement of precipitation exiting into northern Missouri during the mid to late morning hours. Model forecast soundings quickly saturate and with the thermal profiles this is supportive of widespread snow across the area. The only problem would be if saturation occurs more slowly and then precipitation may begin as more of a wintry mix especially across my northwest Illinois counties. There is consistent saturation through the dendritic growth zone. This will produce snow to liquid ratios of 10 or 12 to 1 through the duration of the event. Storm total precipitatin range from 0.75 inches near Memphis Missouri to a quarter of an inch in the Quad Cities to a few hundredths in Freeport. The highest snowfall totals of 6 to 8 inches look possible west of a Vinton to Mount Pleasant to Carthage Illinois line. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected east of that lien to along a line from Manchester to the Quad Cities to Macomb. Snowfall totals will quickly diminish to the east with less than an inch of snow across far northwest Illinois. This will be a compact but strong storm system with a tight pressure gradient across the area. Easterly winds are possible with winds of 15 to 25 MPH with a few gusts over 30 MPH. Given the wetter snowfall and stronger winds there could be some blowing and drifting snow especially in open area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Key messages: 1) Major winter storm in the eastern States this weekend. 2) Northwest flow bringing mainly dry weather. 3) Arctic blast arriving by Wednesday. Details: Sunday and Monday: Our potent clipper system then merges with the southern stream, and plenty of Gulf moisture, to strengthen into a major cyclone. This powerful winter storm tracks across the southern States and then to New England during this time-frame. For the dvn cwa this means little if any snow with chilly temperatures. Highs will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows in the single digits and teens. Tuesday: Enjoy the nice "warm-up" as southerly winds return as another potent clipper tracks across northern MN. Highs will push into the 30s. Wednesday through Thursday: Winter returns with a vengeance as a strong arctic front blasts through the Midwest. The clipper system moves from the Great Lakes region into New England, with a strong 1048 mb high pushing southeast into ND. This set-up ushers true arctic air into the area on brisk northwest winds. Highs in the teens to lower 20s Wednesday, and only 10 to 17 above on Thursday. By Thursday morning low temperatures will range from the single digits above and single digits below zero. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) ISSUED AT 617 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 MVFR cigs expected to build in tonight and eventually turn to IFR. Snow will move in later in the period leading IFR vsbys. This will last well into the morning on Saturday. Expect moderate impacts from snow/IFR vsbys/cigs. Current indications are for vsbys to remain 1< mile through event, thus keeping accumulation rates per hour lower. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Johnson- Jones-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for Des Moines. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for Benton-Iowa-Keokuk-Washington. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren. IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for Henry IL-Mercer-Rock Island. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for Henderson-McDonough-Warren. Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Bureau-Carroll- Henry IL-Putnam-Stephenson-Whiteside. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for Hancock. MO...Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for Clark-Scotland. && $$ UPDATE...Gibbs SYNOPSIS...Haase SHORT TERM...Cousins/Haase LONG TERM...Cousins/Haase AVIATION...Gibbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
633 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 335 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 - 7 day forecast precipitation chances - Overall chances look slim to none in regard to significant precipitation in the GRR forecast area from tonight through next Thursday. The Polar Front is located across portions of the Northern Great Lakes at 300pm stretching from near Sault St Marie in the U.P. southwest into portions of southwest Wisconsin. This front will dive south through our area tonight. The front should go through dry. Cold high pressure then gradually settles into our area for Friday through Sunday. We will be dry through that time frame as well. The pattern becomes slightly more active with some small chances for snow Monday through Thursday of next week. As the strong low goes up the East Coast early next week, some light northwest flow lake effect is expected from late Sunday night into Monday. This should not amount to much. On Tuesday a clipper system dives southeast through the Northern Great Lakes. The ECMWF has continued with a well north of our area track to the system. This will keep the better accumulating snowfall with it to our north as well. We will see some light snow associated with it on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by some light lake effect snow on Wednesday in northwest flow. Into Thursday a massive Arctic High builds in from the west and should shut down most lake effect snow. - 7 day forecast temperature trends - In regard to temperatures through the period, we look to be colder than normal the bulk of the time. So cold and mainly dry will be the themes of the next 7 days. We will see reinforcing shots of cold air dropping down out of Canada through next Thursday in predominately northwest upper flow. The first one starts tonight peaking with -15C air at 850mb on Saturday. The second occurs on Monday with -13C 850mb air into the area. The third one looks to be the most significant and starts Wednesday. This one looks to contain the coldest air of the season with -23C air into the forecast area next Thursday. We normally see travel issues with air this cold as highs usually do not make it out of the single digits and teens. That said there may not be much snow around to compact down into ice. The 850mb numbers mentioned are via the ECMWF which was my preferred model through this forecast. River ice production will continue. So far it has been an orderly process with all sites currently within bank. As we head through the next 7 day we will continue to monitor conditions, as will local emergency management. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 633 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 Areas of IFR will persist across southern Lower Michigan this evening with MVFR expected across central Lower Michigan. Conditions will slowly improve on Friday with VFR conditions expected by late afternoon. North winds AOB 10 knots overnight with some gusts near 20 knots on Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 Based on solid 20-30 knot winds in the HRRR we have decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory for all zones from 700pm this evening through 100pm on Friday. The winds are from the NNE so they are slightly off shore, but waves will propagate into the beaches off the this flow. The highest waves will occur up near Big and Little Sable Points. Overnight though the waves will work down the shoreline at least into the outer reaches of the 0-5 mile nearshore zones. The wind becomes further off shore, more out of the east, on Friday into Saturday. So, we feel comfortable with the time frame selected for the SCA. Conditions look fairly calm in the nearshore waters through the weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
556 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 350 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 The main forecast challenges in the short term are strong winds and the potential for wintry precipitation. An upper level trough will dig into the Great Plains tonight as an closed low develops over South Dakota and Nebraska in the early morning hours. At the surface, a low pressure system and accompanying cold front will develop over the High Plains, moving southeast during the day. Confidence is high in strong wind with this system. With pressure rises as high as 1 to 2 mb per hour behind the front, used the NBM 90th percentile for winds and nudged to HRRR for wind gusts to account for stronger winds. Model soundings show winds approaching 50 knots near the top of the mixed layer. At the surface, winds are expected to remain below warning criteria at this time, therefore no headlines are issued with this forecast package. The other concern with this system is wintry precipitation in northern Nebraska. Light precipitation will begin early tomorrow morning as the cold front begins to enter northern Nebraska, then increase later in the day and evening as the air saturates. Given the temperature profile, precipitation will likely start off as rain with a mix of sleet or freezing drizzle, then transition to snow in the late afternoon as boundary layer temperatures cool sufficiently behind the front. Total precipitation should be light. The greatest snowfall is expected to occur in far north central Nebraska where forecast soundings indicate the greatest lift, with 1 to 2 inches possible. That being said, the area of greatest forcing will remain to the east of the forecast area, with greater impacts in eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. Much cooler overnight temperatures are expected tomorrow night with lows in the low teens to single digits. With breezy northerly winds into the early morning hours, apparent temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the negative single digits. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 350 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Cold air will continue to stream into Nebraska on Saturday, keeping temperatures below normal. Throughout the long term, an upper level ridge remains over the western United States while an upper low stays in place over eastern Canada. This results in a general warming and drying trend through the first half of the week. Temperatures reach the low 50s for much of the area by Monday, around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will begin to fall Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through Nebraska from the north. This also brings the next possibility for precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday. For now it appears the precipitation type will remain as snow as temperatures will be much cooler by then. Only included slight chance POPs at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 VFR conditions and light winds are expected overnight across all of western and north central Nebraska. Conditions will change Friday as a storm system dives southeast across the area. Gusty north to northwest winds and areas of MVFR ceilings and light precipitation can be expected. Local IFR is possible across portions of north central Nebraska but is not expected to be widespread. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
335 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 ...Key Messages 1) Damaging winds possible SE Plains Friday with areas of blowing dust 2) Light to moderate snow southeast mountains... It has been a warm day across southeast Colorado ahead of the approaching system with temperatures across the plains in the 60s, 50s for the valleys, and 30s and 40s for the mountains. High cloudiness continues to overspread the region ahead of the next Pacific system which will move across CO on Friday, merging with an upper trough dropping southward out of Canada and intensifying across the central plains. For tonight, it will be rather mild with the lee side surface low deepening in response. Given the enhanced westerly winds along with high cloud cover have gone warmer than model blends for lows tonight. Cold front will move across southern CO early Friday morning with the potential for an initial damaging wind gusts towards 10 AM according to high res models. Winds increase through the afternoon with mixed signals for potential high wind gusts across the plains. NAM Nest shows the best potential in the morning while NBM4.1 shows another round of potential high winds in the afternoon as deep mixing taps increasing winds aloft as the system intensifies across the central plains. Per collaboration with neighboring offices have hoisted a High Wind Watch for the southeast plains. Greatest confidence is across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties where some 60 mph wind gusts and blowing dust will be possible. Lesser confidence exists for Crowley and Otero counties, but couldn`t exclude the possibility given NAMNest and even the HRRR runs. Eastern El Paso and Pueblo counties could also be impacted, but just too much uncertainty to include these zones right now. High Wind Watch will run from 9 AM until 5 PM for now. Will need to watch how a potential secondary northerly surge evolves as high res models and blends show a signal for another round of high winds across eastern El Paso and Pueblo counties Friday evening. Given the surface cooling, and the stronger surface pressure gradient shifting southward by that time, not sure the strong winds aloft will get mixed down so efficiently during the evening hours. Meanwhile, snow will ramp up across the central mountains late tonight. Snow then spreads into the southeast mountains and Palmer Divide and Raton Ridges through the late morning and afternoon. With greater consensus on a more eastward closed low progression, degree of northeast upslope flow looks less and low levels appear to take more time to saturate. Snowfall totals in the 1 to 4 inch range still look reasonable. There could be some spotty higher amounts along the northeast facing slopes of the Wets and Sangres but these should be very localized. The southeast plains will stay dry from this evening which raises the concerns for blowing dust across the eastern most counties. -KT .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 Snow will continue across the southeast mountains during the evening before diminishing overnight. Brisk north winds across the plains will continue, though winds appear to stay below high wind criteria, as system intensifies across KS and drops southward into OK on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday behind the front which should mitigate fire weather concerns in spite of some gusty morning winds across eastern areas. Expect warming temperatures again for Sunday into early next week with northwest flow transitioning to more westerly flow on Tuesday as another Pacific disturbance moves across the region. This one looks rather moisture starved so not expecting much in the way of precipitation. Another system drops south out of Canada later in the week bringing another cold front and subsequent cool down for Wednesday and Thursday. Some isolated showers will be possible across mainly mountain areas, but once again, this system does not look like a good precipitation maker for southern Colorado. -KT && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 226 PM MST Thu Jan 13 2022 VFR conditions and light winds expected to continue into tonight for the TAF sites. A cold front will move through KCOS and KPUB Friday morning with winds increasing at both terminals between 13 and 15z. Could see gusts up to 45 kts during the afternoon. Isolated SHRASN will be possible at KCOS and KPUB during the afternoon but cigs should remain VFR to MVFR with little to no accumulation at the terminals. KALS will see north winds pick up in the afternoon with gusts to around 25 kts possible. Some VCSH will be possible with a VFR cloud deck in the afternoon but these should be pretty hit or miss for the terminal. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ089-093-095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...KT