Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/10/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
741 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep through the area tonight, with lake
effect snow into the New York Thruway tonight lifting north into
Monday. The lake effect snow will push southward Monday night,
ahead of a cold front which will bring bitter cold to the entire
region Monday night through Tuesday. High pressure then builds
into the area for the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
741 PM update...
No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Lingering
light rain showers moving out of the area changing to snow into
the Catskills. Then, another cold punch of air arrives along a
cold front tonight with more lake effect snow showers moving in
from the northwest. Lake Effect Warnings and Advisories...and
Wind Chill headlines remain unchanged.
430 PM Update...
Weak but complex weather system is shifting east of the area
this evening. Strong jet streak remains over SW Ontario, leaving
most of our area in the right entrance region with a broad area
of upper level divergence, while a weak prefrontal vort max is
rolling into the area. Both are helping cause a slight uptick in
precip coverage again, mainly northwest of the I-88/I-86
corridor in NY State, but some light precip is also noted over
the Poconos and Catskills. RAP soundings suggest the latter area
is likely drizzle and freezing drizzle, while ice crystals are
more likely present farther north and west (the warm nose is
pretty much gone at this point). Temperatures are mostly above
freezing except in a few pockets across the Susquehanna
headwaters and the Cats/Poconos, but ground temperatures likely
remain below freezing in a few spots. While any additional ice
accumulation is likely to be minimal, some slick spots could
persist over the next hour or two. Issued an SPS to cover this
as the bulk of the event and impacts are over.
The the area NW of I-88/86, soundings are more likely to contain
ice crystals, so precip type will be rain or snow. Temperatures
will slowly start dropping from west to east over the next
couple of hours, then drop quickly behind an approaching cold
front which appears to be approaching the north shore of Lake
Ontario now. High res models suggest the cold front/wind shift
could be accompanied by some squally snow rain/snow showers,
followed by a lake effect band setting up along the Thruway this
evening (roughly after 8 PM) before drifting north overnight.
The band looks to be quite persistent north of the Thruway
tonight, focused over Oneida County. Some weak instability may
cause the band to become a little less organized during the day
Monday, especially further away from the Lake, and the focus of
the showers may tend to favor the west slopes of the Tug Hill
for a time. The band will become better organized again during
the late afternoon and early evening hours, with snowfall rates
likely increasing as the DGZ lowers ahead of a stronger
shortwave trough and associated secondary cold front.
Monday night will be tricky as the shortwave and secondary front
will cause winds to shift to the northwest. The lake effect band
will likely get pushed south and weaken, but models often handle
this transition poorly. Late Monday night, northwesterly bands
will likely set up, favoring Onondaga/Cortland and
Seneca/Tompkins Counties, though snowfall will likely be much
narrower and generally lighter. Again, QPF and snowfall
forecasting is difficult with this scenario, and would not be
surprised to see isolated advisory-level snowfall amounts Monday
night south and west of Syracuse.
Storm Total Snowfall eased up a little on amounts in southern
and eastern Oneida County with the lull expected during the day
tomorrow. Jackpot will likely be in the far northwest corner
which clips the west slopes of the Tug Hill, where 15 to 20
inches is expected. Lighter amounts are expected further south
and east. Northern Onondaga and northern Madison Counties will
see 3 to 6 inches overnight before the band drifts northward,
with additional snowfall Monday night, and a significant break
in between. Snowfall amounts don`t quite make warning criteria
over a 12 hour period, however.
Late Monday night may end up seeing advisories spread further
south and west into the Finger Lakes, but there is still too
much uncertainty for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Wind Chill Advisory and a Wind Chill Warning have been issued
for Monday night through early Tuesday morning.
With a bitter airmass in place as 850mb temperatures drop to as
low as -20 to -25C late Monday night, temperatures will start
off in the single digits above and below zero Tuesday morning,
with values in the teens below zero in northern Oneida county.
Even though winds will gradually be dropping back by the early
hours of Tuesday, bitter temperatures will still yield wind
chills as low as - 15 to -25F. Temperatures will not improve
much during the day, only peaking in the single digits across
northern Oneida county and the higher terrain of the Catskills,
and in the teens across most of the rest of the area.
Otherwise, expect lingering lake effect snow showers mainly across
the Finger Lakes, with light accumulations below an inch possible.
Snow showers wrap up into the late afternoon and evening as high
pressure builds in, soundings dry up, and flow starts to shift more
west/southwesterly.
Dry weather continues overnight through Wednesday with high pressure
in control. A few high clouds may move through central NY as a
shortwave tracks into southern Ontario and Quebec, but this will not
be enough to keep temperatures from plummeting once again. Expect
lows in the single digits once again. Temperatures Wednesday
afternoon will climb much higher than on the previous day as warmer
air advects in on the backside of the ridge. Expect highs to range
in the 30s under partly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On and off chances for snow showers will return for the rest of the
work week and into the weekend. First, another trough and weak cold
front moves through late Wednesday night to early Thursday. Model
soundings are still quite dry with this, so we may struggle to see a
great deal of snow accumulations and most of the area may be able to
stay dry. Some lake effect snow showers persist through the rest of
Thursday and Thursday night southeast of Lake Ontario. Ridging into
Friday will bring about another dry day with more sunshine, followed
up by additional chances for snow into Saturday. While the exact
location is uncertain, models are generally agreeing on a trough
digging into the central US, and a surface low closing off over
either the Great Lakes (as in the GFS) or the lower Midwest (Euro).
Given that these discrepancies exist, PoP has been limited to just a
chance.
Otherwise, temperatures will be more seasonal for the remainder of
the forecast period. Thursday will be the warmest with highs in the
30s and overnight lows in the 20s, followed up by cooler air behind
the cold front Friday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A batch of rain showers is currently moving across the area as
surface temperatures are above freezing across all terminals.
Temps will fall through the evening and rain showers will change
to snow. MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to hold for the
into the early overnight hours evening, lifting to low-end VFR
at most terminals between 04-06z.
The exceptions will be at KRME and KSYR. Heavy lake effect snow
develops late this evening, causing visibility to LIFR at SYR
and IFR at RME for much of the night. Snow becomes less intense
at KSYR after 06Z as the begins to lift northward. A slow
return to VFR will take place, with a chance for a stray snow
shower to drop conditions to MVFR for a brief period until 10Z.
KRME, however, will remain under IFR restrictions until the band
continues to move northward out of the area towards the early
morning.
Winds turning to the west/northwest into the evening remain
strong through the night, gusting up to 25-30kts. Winds slowly
weaken through Monday morning, but gusts 18-24kts can be
expected across the area. and afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday morning...Occasional restrictions
at NY terminals due to lake effect snow showers, especially
KSYR-KITH-KBGM. Gusty NW winds and bitter cold Tuesday morning
may impact ground operations as temperatures dip into the single
digits, with lows well below zero at KRME.
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR with chance
for linger lake effect snow at SYR. Otherwise bitter cold
temperatures once again with most terminals in single digits
Tuesday night.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday night through Thursday...Disturbance with chance of
snow showers and associated restrictions.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ039-
040.
NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ017-
018-025-036-044>046-055>057-062.
Wind Chill Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-
037.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ018-036.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...HLC/JTC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
600 PM CST Sun Jan 9 2022
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...A cold front, currently extending south of BKS to
east of APY, will continue to push through Deep South Texas this
evening. Brownsville radar indicates some convection developing
ahead and along of this boundary. Will continue to mention
VCTS/TSRA at all Rio Grande Valley aerodromes through late this
evening. A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected through
late this evening with convection. Low- level, MVFR, stratus
clouds will develop behind the front and persist through the night
and into Monday. Northerly winds will become gusty, with gusts
between 20-25 knots tonight and into Monday morning. MVFR/IFR
ceilings will prevail through the rest of the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CST Sun Jan 9 2022/
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The overall short-term
forecast remains on track, with a moderate-strong cold front
anticipated to push north-to-south through the CWA beginning late
this afternoon. KBRO doppler radar currently shows isolated light
to moderate, popcorn-type, showers starting to develop offshore
and along the coast, with isolated thunderstorms developing up the
coast near Corpus Christi. Isolated/spotty showers will continue
before the better chances of precip. unfolds with the front this
evening. Latest forecast models and mesoanalysis continues to
indicate an unstable atmosphere ahead of the approaching front.
MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg will be more than enough
energy to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms just
ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Latest run of the HRRR
model keeps the bulk of the heaviest rainfall east of US-281/I-69C
beginning late this afternoon. The front will exit the area by or
even before midnight tonight, but shower activity may linger
through the morning on Monday, especially across the lower RGV and
immediate coastline as a weak coastal trough forms. As far as
rainfall amounts, general values between 0.25-0.50" can be
expected (maybe less across western counties). However, values
over an inch are not out of question, especially where the heavier
showers/storms occur. Widespread flooding is not anticipated at
this time, but localized ponding of water and minor flooding in
low-lying areas are possible in spots.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the mid-upper 40s
and lower 50s overnight tonight under cloudy skies. An abundance
of overrunning will cause cloud cover to stick around during the
day on Monday, which will keep daytime temperature on the cool
side; temps will likely struggle to get out of the 50s. Also,
northerly winds are expected to stay fairly breezy behind the
front on Monday, which may make temperatures feel a few degrees
cooler. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Monday night, which
should keep temperatures contained in the 40s (lower 40s north,
upper 40s south).
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): High pressure over East
Texas will continue to shift east but the southward extension will
remain over the CWA. A weak surface coastal trough may still be
evident to the east over the Gulf. A mid-level shortwave trough
will swing west to east across North Texas on Tuesday and will
then track over the north Gulf on Wednesday. We may see enhanced
shower activity over the adjacent Gulf on Wednesday as the base
of the trough extends out over the Northwest Gulf. With high
pressure still to the north, winds will retain a north to
northeast fetch out into the mid-week.
From mid to late week mid-level ridging will build just upstream
over the High Plains, shifting slowly east. High pressure will
unlock from the Great Basin and the Northwest on Friday as a
vigorous short wave dives south from Central Canada. A short wave
kicking out from a Baja low will synch up behind the surface front
to push it through late Saturday. This scenario is in line with
the inherited forecast reasoning. The front will be knocking at
the door Saturday afternoon, and there will be some capping of
high temps out west, based on guidance numbers coming in from
Laredo. Overrunning and rainy gray, cooler weather will take over
Saturday night across the CWA and into Sunday. While temps will
warm several degrees above average mid to late week, the Saturday
front will cool things to below average next Sunday. A follow-on
weak shortwave trough, and this is handled slightly differently by
the GFS and ECMWF, moving overhead Monday will keep rain chances
going, but surface high pressure will shift rapidly east as well,
with a residual coastal trough offshore to keep marine and coastal
rain chances alive early the following week.
MARINE:
Now through Monday Night...Small craft will need to continue to
exercise caution on the offshore Gulf waters through the afternoon
as wave heights continue to remain agitated around 6 feet. Marine
conditions will then quickly deteriorate beginning early this
evening as a moderate-strong cold front pushes over the coastal
waters. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for all of the
coastal waters beginning at 6 PM this evening through at least 6
PM Monday evening, with the possibility of an extension into
Monday night/Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will drastically
increase and become gusty behind the front, with a few gusts up to
gale force tonight and through Monday morning. In response to the
winds, seas on the Gulf will increase between 6 and 9 feet,
occasionally higher on the offshore waters. A gradual improvement
of winds and seas will begin Monday afternoon, but conditions will
likely remain hazardous through Monday night.
Tuesday through Friday Night...North to northeast winds will start
out moderate to fresh on Tuesday with elevated seas and possible
small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf. After Tuesday, light to
moderate north to northeast winds and moderate seas will persist
through about Thursday. Winds will turn to southeast and south late
in the week. Seas will also diminish to low or moderate.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 60 51 68 / 80 40 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 51 58 49 68 / 80 30 20 10
HARLINGEN 48 57 47 66 / 80 30 10 0
MCALLEN 50 57 47 65 / 80 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 49 59 46 65 / 50 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 61 57 66 / 80 40 20 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv
63-KC/AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
702 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
- Cold with lake effect snow showers into Monday night
The coldest air of the winter so far is surging into our area this
evening. This is be the big story for the next 36 hours, how cold
it will be. Wind chills will mostly be in the 0F to -10F range
into Tuesday morning. Lows tonight will be between 0F and 10F
above and tomorrow we have secondary surge of even colder air
coming in during the afternoon. That will limit our high
temperature to the mid teens. We can thank a nearly 1040 mb high
that has come from Northwest Canada for this cold period.
As for snow with this cold outbreak, the moisture is very shallow
based on model soundings, mostly under 4000 ft into Monday
morning. Even so the DGZ is in or below the clouds so light snow
showers are expected (since they are happening now). The passage
of that secondary cold front, brings in the -20c 850 temps by
midday Monday. Based on the HRRR and NAM 3km, this sets the stage
for inversion heights between 5000 ft and 6000 ft. this will be
enough to generate stronger snow showers that will likely result
in some light accumulations, maybe an inch or two. Being a
Northwest flow event the largest snowfall totals will be south
and west of Grand Rapids. Since the polar jet core does not get
east of us until Tuesday morning the snow showers will continue
until then.
- Warming some and little precipitation till next weekend
The next system from the Pacific wave train to impact our weather
is currently near the International Date Line. It builds a ridge
out in front of it. That in turn pushes the upper trough over us
to our east by Wednesday. The next shortwave crosses the Canadian
Rockies late Tuesday into Wednesday and pulls down more Canadian
Polar air into the northern Plains. However that system from the
Dateline has to short of a wavelength to allow that next push of
cold air to really get here. We have to wait till next weekend for
that system to get far enough east to allow a larger trough over
the eastern CONUS, which brings the cold air back.
This next system coming across the CONUS has the potential to
bring us a significant snow event toward next weekend. About 20
of the 80 ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF do just that. Of
course that means 60 of the 80 do not. On the other hand only 30
of the 80 have no snow for us next weekend. The bottom line is
snow event toward next weekend is possible.
- Cold comes back third week of January
The models suggest (CPC 8 to 14 day forecast says this too) that
next week will be more persistently cold than this week. Most of
the ensembles of the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian support this idea.
The ensemble mean daily highs are below 26 degrees from Friday
through Sunday the 23rd. Curiously the last 5 days of that period
is the coldest with highs mostly near 20.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 702 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
MVFR cigs - impacting mainly just MKG/AZO/BTL this evening - are
expected to become more numerous overnight into Monday. Generally
just flurries occurring from these clouds at times with little or
no restriction to vsbys, however 3-5 mile vsbys probably becoming
more common Monday as snow shower intensity/coverage increases
somewhat. Brisk west-northwest winds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts
around 25 kts continuing tonight and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
We are still getting gales at our near shore weather stations so
we will keep our gale warning until 4 pm, then let is expire in
favor of a small craft advisory that will continue into Monday
evening.
As we have been seeing the winds let up for about 12 hours then
near gales come back by late Tuesday afternoon with the next surge
of warm air.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
While we are starting to see ice build up ice on area rivers,
streams, lakes and ponds, it does not appear likely we will see
any significantly impactful ice jam flooding this week. That is
not to say some of the low areas on our rivers or places were
there is a sharp bend in the river, we will not get a little
flooding, that is very typical when our rivers start to freeze.
Ice formation on area rivers really increases on days with highs
near or below 20 degrees. We will see that tomorrow but it will
only last one day as Tuesday will be warmer. However a significant
pattern change seems likely by early next week (20th). We could
have days in a row with highs below 20. That would really increase
the ice on our rivers. We will have to monitor this closely.
the rivers.
At this point river levels are on the low side so any ice buildup
will likely not result in
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
706 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring rain late tonight, tapering off
before sunrise Monday morning. From there, some of the coldest
air that we have seen so far this season will start to settle
in, with dry high pressure ruling the forecast through at least
the middle of the work-week. Temperatures bottom out Tue into
Wed, with some recovery likely as the latter part of the
work-week progresses.
&&
.UPDATE...
Some tweaking to evening cloud cover and hrly temps/dewpoints
based on latest Sat imagery, sfc obs and HRRR model trends.
Current POP trend associated with the CFP tonight looking aok.
Will take another look at thunder possibility at next update but
instability in question especially with marine layer under
180-190 degree sfc winds ahead of the front pushing or having
pushed inland. Sfc Dewpoint recovery to and/or above 60 looking
quite limited which may hamper sea fog development given SSTS
in the 50s to around 60. Current SCA time-line looking aok with
main SCA coming from the post frontal Northerly winds due to a
tightened sfc pg combined with excellent CAA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows strong high pressure well
offshore, which has provided plenty of return flow to set up
across the area, allowing some areas closer to the coast to
reach the lower 70s this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front
currently near Appalachia will race towards the coast, emerging
offshore by Monday morning.
Showers currently over parts of the Deep South will continue to
move in a west to east fashion. The western portions of our area
should start to see rain around 02-03Z this evening, while the
coast could see it around 05-06Z late tonight. Very little
instability here, with the main dynamics of this system well to
the north. However, there might be just enough unstable air to
allow a rumble of thunder or two as the rain moves through
tonight. Showers push offshore before sunrise Monday morning,
with clouds starting to clear out later in the AM hours.
Rainfall amounts generally linger between half an inch to
three-quarters of an inch.
This front brings some of the coldest air we`ve seen so far this
season. Expecting non-diurnal trends with this system, meaning
Monday`s high temperatures will likely be recorded not long
after the calendar shifts from Sunday to Monday. From there,
temperatures start to dip, as very cold high pressure starts to
creep in from the upper Midwest. Expect breezy northerly winds
by Monday afternoon, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For the first time in a while, it will feel like winter has
arrived as a cold front associated with a strong upper-level
low over Newfoundland will be offshore. The 850 mb temperature
will dip to -4C Monday night and -6C Tuesday night. We will see
the coldest temperatures since November and for the winter. Low
temperatures Monday are expected to fall to the middle 20s away
from the beaches and around 30 at the beach strand. Low`s
Tuesday will be from the lower 20s west of I-95 and mid to upper
20s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday will only reach the lower to
mid-40s. No precipitation is expected during this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The large scale pattern shows two disturbances in the upper-level
flow One will pass across the region late Wednesday night, and the
second one will be approaching the east coast by later Saturday.
The first system indicates low confidence as the GFS develops a
low pressure center farther south and earlier than the ECMWF.
The Ensemble members hint the low formation will be farther east
and farther north than the deterministic run of the GFS. The
NBM shows low PoP values over the coastal counties and the
coastal waters. Temperatures along the coast are expected to be
upper 30 to lower than the 40s. So will keep showers in the
forecast for now. Again the 2nd system is a low confidence
solution and will continue with a 20-30% chance of showers on
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to start this period, will quickly be followed with
periods of MVFR from ceilings and/or scattered showers ahead
of an approaching cold front thru mid-evening. Instability in
question for the threat of thunder this evening given latest
model soundings. Will just mention it`s possibility here. After
the CFP, the threat for widespread MVFR/IFR will occur from
mainly ceilings and reduced vsby from light to moderate rain
and/or fog. Progressive flow at all levels will push the wx
conditions producing the flight restrictions off the Carolina
Coasts by sunrise Mon. The upper trof axis will will swing off
the Carolina Coasts midday Mon followed by drier air thru the
atm column there-after. Any leftover VFR type stratocu will
scour out by mid to late Mon aftn leaving SKC.
Southerly winds 10g15 kt ahead of the cold front will veer to
the W-NW 10g20kt after it`s passage. Winds further veer by Mon
daybreak to Northerly at generally 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25
kt at times as a tightened sfc pg and excellent CAA combine.
The gustiness in the wind field will diminish by sunset Mon.
Extended Outlook...VFR through Wed night with high pressure
dominating. Periodic MVFR associated with a CFP Thu thru Thu
night. VFR Fri.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday...Strong cold front is quickly approaching the
waters, which will allow for a considerable uptick in winds
tonight. This easily gets us into Small Craft Advisory
territory, valid from 10 PM Sunday through 5 PM Monday. Winds
are currently southwesterly ahead of the front, transitioning
to westerly and then north-northwesterly by the time the front
pushes offshore by Monday morning. Seas currently 2-3ft across
all waters, but will rapidly increase to 2-3ft at the coast and
5-6ft out 20nm from shore by late Monday morning.
Monday Night through Friday...The cold front will be well
offshore, and the offshore winds will be around 15 knots and
will weaken into Tuesday. Seas will range from 2 to4 feet with
the offshore flow. The low-pressure area is expected to develop
well off the coast, and the winds are expected to be mainly
offshore at or below 15 knots. On Friday, the biggest seas are
expected with 2 to 5 feet seas. The higher seas are expected
10-20 miles off the coast north of Little River.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EST
Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/IGB
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...IGB/RH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
810 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
.UPDATE...
Latest analysis this evening shows little evidence of the remnant
frontal boundary over South Florida except for a diffuse band of
clouds extending W from the Bahamas across the area. The 00z
soundings from Miami and Key West show some slight low level
drying compared to 12 hours ago, and a result shower activity has
diminished over the area this evening.
The factors above would suggest a rather quiet night
upcoming...however there are a couple of signs indicating that
precip may increase in coverage and intensity tonight. One of
these is a mid/upper level shortwave trough near the Yucatan
Channel and far SE Gulf of Mexico moving NE. Another is the
presence of warm air advection, slight moisture convergence, and
leftover frontogenesis over SE Florida according to SPC mesoscale
analysis charts. Model guidance isn`t too consistent in depicting
increasing rain tonight, with the HRRR the most aggressive with
convection across SE Florida. Given the adequate forcing from the
approaching mid/upper shortwave and modest low level forcing,
global models such as the GFS and ECMWF and their respective MOS
guidance seem to support the idea of rain coverage increasing. As
a result, the higher PoPs tonight in the 50% range from Miami to
the Palm Beaches look good, along with the possibility of a
couple of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is a possibility,
although the threat is highly conditional at this time.
Rest of the forecast also looks on track.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 633 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022)
AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
Prevailing ceilings around 035-050 throughout most of the period,
with perhaps a lifting of ceilings above 120 after 14z. Although
not mentioned in the TAFs, there will probably be brief MVFR
conditions in SHRA, especially east coast terminals, although not
numerous enough to put in forecast and will let updates handle
any short term changes. VCTS at KPBI after 13z, and elsewhere east
coast after 18z. Mainly dry at KAPF. Wind decreasing E-SE to less
than 10 knots.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 258 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022)
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Building high pressure has kept the flow over South Florida easterly
today bringing breezy conditions and abundant low-level moisture
across the region. As this high propagates eastward, the pressure
gradient over South Florida will weaken resulting in weaker winds
for this afternoon and evening.
The story with precipitation this afternoon is not too dissimilar
than Saturday. PWAT values are still within the 90th percentile for
this time of year across southern portions of mainland South
Florida. The high building aloft is helping to limit instability
some so overall the threat for thunder is a bit lower this
afternoon, but still not completely zero, especially over south
Miami-Dade. CAMs are showing some activity this evening along a
developing Gulf Breeze (with a gradually weakening easterly flow)
along Coastal Collier County. A few showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two will be possible in the strongest activity.
Meanwhile, along the Atlantic, weak showers will likely continue
into the evening hours.
Tonight, CAMs are signaling some nocturnal convective activity to
develop along the Atlantic coast with the localized baroclinic zone
between land and Gulf stream. However, guidance differ a bit in
terms of strength and overall coverage. As we move into Monday a
cold front will be moving down the Florida peninsula. Another day of
unsettled weather with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
possible. Storms will be possible particularly in the afternoon
hours as the front gets a little closer in the vicinity of South
Florida combined with diurnal heating. Temperatures will remain
above average with the warmest conditions along the southwest
coast and interior.
LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
The cold front will be slow to move through the region on Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This front will pretty much stall out
just to the south of the region, which will help to keep the
chances of showers in place throughout most of the day on Tuesday
especially across the eastern half of South Florida. There will
still be just enough instability in place to support a slight
chance of thunderstorms through Monday night right out ahead of
the front. Behind the front, the pressure gradient will once
again tighten between the front to the south and an area of high
pressure centered off to the north. This will allow for a breezy
northeasterly flow to set up for the rest of the day on Tuesday
and into Wednesday as well. Cooler temperatures will move in
through the middle of the week as high temperatures range from the
lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s
across Southwestern Florida.
The uncertainty in the forecast increases later on Wednesday and
into Wednesday night as models show a complex pattern trying to
develop. The GFS depicts an incoming mid level trough from the
southern Plains and phases it with a northern stream trough
digging down into the eastern portion of the country. This
solution allows for an area of low pressure to develop over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and moves it across Central Florida on
Wednesday night bringing a secondary cold front through South
Florida into Thursday morning. This solution would increase
chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night into
Thursday morning before bringing drier air in for the end of the
week. The GFS is the most bullish out of the rest of the models
and the ECMWF does not show this phasing of the northern and
southern stream systems. The ECMWF does not develop this area of
low pressure over the Gulf, however, it does bring a weaker
secondary cold front through on Wednesday night into Thursday. The
latest forecast shows a blend of the models, introducing a chance
of showers on Wednesday night into Thursday across the region.
This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
In any event, a drier and cooler air mass will move into the
region later on Thursday and into Friday as cold air advection
takes place with high pressure building in from the north. Low
temperatures on Friday and Saturday morning could be on the chilly
side as they have the potential to drop into the mid 40s across
Glades and Hendry counties and into the lower to mid 50s across
the east coast metro areas. High temperatures towards the end of
the week will generally remain in the lower 70s across most of
South Florida.
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Primarily VFR conditions prevailing with MVFR conditions possible
in passing showers. Easterly winds 10-15kts gusting 20-25kts along
the eastern terminals this afternoon. Later this evening
weakening easterly winds to 10-15kts with showers still possible.
Possible Gulf sea breeze development for APF today and tomorrow
but it was left out of the TAF for today due to low confidence.
MARINE...
As a strong surface high pressure spreads eastward over the western
Atlantic, winds and seas will gradually decrease tonight. A strong
cold front will then push southward through the local waters late
Monday and into early Tuesday. Behind the front, hazardous marine
conditions are expected for most local waters as north or northeast
winds increase along with an increasing northeasterly swell off the
Palm Beach Coast.
BEACHES...
A high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the
remainder of today. The rip current threat will remain elevated
through the start of the new workweek and into midweek as a strong
easterly wind develops and northeasterly swell builds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 70 81 66 76 / 50 50 50 40
West Kendall 68 82 65 77 / 40 50 50 40
Opa-Locka 68 81 65 76 / 50 50 50 40
Homestead 69 80 64 76 / 40 50 50 50
Fort Lauderdale 70 80 66 75 / 50 60 60 40
N Ft Lauderdale 70 81 67 75 / 50 60 60 40
Pembroke Pines 68 81 64 75 / 50 50 60 40
West Palm Beach 68 81 64 74 / 50 60 60 40
Boca Raton 69 81 66 75 / 50 60 60 40
Naples 68 81 62 77 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Update...Molleda
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
942 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
.UPDATE...
...Deteriorating Marine Conditions Arrive Along with Cold Front
Tomorrow...
Current-Tonight...A moderately-complex forecast in
store for the overnight hours with the approach of a cold front
across the northern half of the peninsula and increasing moisture
spreading across the southern tier. Tonight, central FL gets
positioned between the two, with effects from both arriving in the
next several hours. So far, only minimal rain chances are present
across Martin County this evening, prompting the adjustment of
the PoP forecast over the next several hours, however rain chances
for the Treasure Coast are expected to increase after midnight
with HRRR runs in favor of scattered showers accompanied by a few
rumbles of thunder ejecting north out of Palm Beach County then
spreading along the warm Gulf Stream waters. At the same time,
isolated pop-up showers may develop over interior areas along the
Kissimmee River and towards Orlando. Highest coverage expected
from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast overnight at 40-50%,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms at the immediate coast, then
spreading north towards the southern Space Coast by daybreak.
Also prior to sunrise, patchy fog will be possible over Lake and
portions of western Orange counties due to arriving moisture ahead
of the cold front. Warm overnight lows will only fall to the mid
60s with increasing cloud cover.
Tomorrow...(modified previous) Latest HRRR runs have backed off with
early morning robust weather, keeping most rain chances out of the
forecast until the late morning as the cold front reaches south of I-
4. Updated the forecast to slightly reflect this, just eliminating
showers north of I-4 prior to 10am with a general increase in rain
chcs beginning mid- late morning and into the afternoon ascd with
approach of the front. Predominant showers (sct-nmrs) along with a
small chc of thunder can be expected with passage of the frontal
zone, bringing higher rain chcs from N-S during that time period.
The set up for storms is not as ideal as temps near -12C to -14C @
H5 combine with only marginal at best kinematics aloft to produce a
small chc of an embedded storm or two across the area.
Despite the advertised front, highs will make it to the U70s to
L80s. Winds will veer quickly north after psg of the front largely
before dusk with post-frontal drying steadily moving swd in the
early evening hours effectively ending rain chcs.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moisture will increase this evening and through the overnight from
the south, bringing isolated showers to Treasure Coast terminals
through daybreak, with the potential for embedded thunderstorms
through 12Z. An approaching cold front from the north adds the
potential for patchy fog development at interior terminals after 09Z
this morning, so included cig/vis reductions through daybreak. The
cold front will shift north to south today, bringing scattered to
numerous showers with isolated storms initially at KLEE/KDAB and
shifting south through the afternoon. NW winds veer N behind the
frontal passage, with slowly clearing skies. Mainly VFR overnight,
with increasing likelihood for prevailing MVFR and brief IFR
conditions through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5-10 knots will veer southwest overnight
ahead of an approaching cold front. Increasing moisture will allow
for the potential for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms to
spread over the Gulf Stream waters through daybreak. Seas remain 3-5
ft.
Tomorrow...As the cold front shifts south through the Atlantic
waters, west to northwest winds will become northerly, increasing to
20-25 knots by early afternoon. This has prompted the issuance of a
Small Craft Advisory for all waters north of Sebastian Inlet, which
will be expanded across all marine zones. Seas will be slower to
respond to the wind surge, remaining at 3-5 ft tomorrow but
increasing later in the night. Scattered to numerous showers with
isolated thunderstorms are expected tomorrow across all Atlantic
zones.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 76 54 66 / 20 50 10 10
MCO 65 81 56 69 / 20 50 10 10
MLB 64 79 60 70 / 30 60 30 20
VRB 64 82 62 74 / 40 70 50 30
LEE 65 78 50 68 / 20 40 0 0
SFB 64 78 55 68 / 20 40 10 10
ORL 66 80 55 69 / 20 40 10 10
FPR 63 81 61 71 / 40 70 50 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Combs
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
927 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Precip has rapidly come to an end this evening as the cold front
pushed through the TN valley and into the Appalachians. Have
updated PoPs accordingly, only holding on to some mentionable rain
chances for the next 2-3 hours in the Smokies mainly as some low
level moisture remains trapped in upslope flow through that time.
Radar shows some light returns in those areas that extend west
from the mountains a tad so I suspect there are legitimate showers
ongoing at the moment. That said, dewpoints have dropped into the
mid 20s across portions of the northern plateau, so these showers
will not last long.
Regarding dewpoints, model guidance is handling the dewpoint drops
rather nicely so did not make any chances to that for the
overnight hours. However, temperatures are not falling quite as
fast as expected and with the lingering mid/high clouds expected
through the night coupled with elevated winds, I think overnight
lows may be a touch warmer than previously forecasted. While I
think the HRRR is probably bullish in the warmer direction, the
trends in that model over the last several runs point to warmer
temperatures tonight. Additionally, locations on the SPC SREF
plumes page that track hourly vs forecast temps, show a cold bias
in the most recent runs, also supporting bumping temperatures up a
notch tonight. In the end, did a blend of the previous forecast,
the HRRR, and also some CONSShort with effectively bumped lows up
1-3 degrees depending on the location. The biggest changes were in
the north.
CD
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Rain should clear all terminals by 00z so just have some minor
vsby restrictions and MVFR ceilings at TAF sites through 02-03z
before drier air and better flight categories make it into the TN
valley. Expect only high clouds by 07z. Winds will remain gusty
through the overnight hours as surface pressure gradients increase
across the region.
CD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 47 26 44 27 / 20 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 42 21 40 25 / 50 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 24 43 20 40 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 37 16 36 21 / 80 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$