Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/05/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
539 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 354 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
Key Messages:
Forecast Highlights:
-- Strong, gusty winds develop tonight with blowing snow concerns
-- Light snow far northern Iowa, very light accumulations tonight
-- Hazardous/dangerous wind chills at night/early morning tonight
through Friday morning over portions of the state
Details: Low pressure is over southwestern Minnesota early this
afternoon with Iowa experiencing gusty southerly winds. With the
winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph, have been monitoring Iowa DOT
road conditions and plow cams for blowing snow across roadways.
There have been a few instances across our far southeastern forecast
area or just to the east where there was some blowing snow overnight
into early this morning. So far this afternoon, other than some
partially covered roads in east central Iowa, road conditions and
plow cams do not indicate blowing snow. Otherwise, there are plenty
of high clouds over a good portion of the state with a few exception
over southern and western Iowa. Temperatures are a few degrees
warmer than yesterday, with the exception of northwestern Iowa.
While there is no snow cover there, the clouds have kept the
temperatures from reaching their top potential. With some melting
going on this afternoon, typical refreeze will occur this evening on
untreated roadways/surfaces.
As the surface low pressure and associated mid-level shortwave
trough advances eastward tonight, a potent cold front will surge
east and southeastward through the state. Strong cold air advection
will follow behind this front and while the highest pressure rises
will stay west of the state, the pressure rise along with a tight
pressure gradient and subsidence will enhance wind gusts. BUFKIT
soundings, particularly the RAP and HRRR, show wind gusts nearing 50
knots at the top of the mixed layer over northern Iowa and between
40 to 45 knots farther south. These strongest wind gusts will be
focused in a 6 hour period for a given location. Have not pushed
surface winds/gusts as high as mentioned yet, but still a big
boost over National Blend of Models. Associated with this surface
low and front, will see potential for light snow under an inch
over northern Iowa. Cross sections show the best saturation and
lift will be over northern Iowa /roughly northern two tiers of
counties/ and into Minnesota. This is where the saturation with a
depth of 2.5 to 3km will fall into the dendritic growth zone (DGZ)
as temperatures fall. Soundings at MIW, DSM, and OTM do show
steep boundary layer lapse rates with possible low level
instability, but the depth of moisture is shallower with questions
on saturation. Farther north toward say ALO there is a bit more
saturation that horizontal convective roll snow showers are
possible. However, most guidance, including high resolution models
which tends to show these scenarios, remain muted/quiet.
With the strong winds, falling snow will of course be blown and
cause reduced visibility. Blowing snow beyond the short period of
falling snow remains highly questions and thus no confidence in a
warning that starts with a B. WFO La Crosse called around to some of
their cooperative observers in northeastern Iowa this morning and
found observers with an icy crust that was on top of the snow pack
to any icy crust that is further down. This indicates that blowable
snow across our northeastern forecast area where it is just a few
inches at most is questionable. We also called down to a few of our
emergency management partners in southern Iowa and heard from a
spotter who all reported that the snowpack was generally wet. We had
also stepped outside around noon and found a similar characteristic
to the snowpack in Johnston. The midshift reported streamers going
across the road on their way in last evening and it is possible that
ditches, with collected, deeper snowpack than the surrounding areas
may have blowable snow below the crust. Thus, the highest blowing
snow potential, though not fully certain, is likely over our
northeastern forecast area. Elsewhere, patchy/isolated blowing snow
may be possible that has existing snowpack. We did extend the winter
weather advisory for some of our eastern counties til midday
Wedensday. This may be generous on the length, but concerned that if
blowing snow does occur that this may continue through the morning
hours and impact the morning commute. The rest of the winter weather
advisory is currently planned to end at 12z due to either no
snowpack or a snowpack that will largely not be blowable.
As headlines end 12z Wednesday, will likely need some wind chill
headlines across northern Iowa through midday where wind chill
temperatures will fall below -20. Trying to keep the hazards from
getting too cluttered so will allow night shift to make the
transition from precipitating to non-precipitating headlines. Wind
chill headlines will likely be needed again Wednesday night into
Thursday morning across northern into central Iowa.
Another shortwave trough will pass through Nebraska and largely over
Missouri Wednesday night. Most ensemble members show that the QPF
will be south of the border, but have continued with a stripe of low
PoPs over far southern Iowa. This system will exit quickly on
Thursday with high pressure passing through the area late in the
day. Warm air advection and QG convergence over Nebraska will spur
light snow Thursday night, but as this moves into Iowa the forcing
will weaken and cross sections and sounding show dry air in the mid
and low levels. 00z WPC cluster analysis and review of ensembles
shows that any appreciable precipitation is unlikely at this time.
Therefore, kept the forecast dry. While cloud cover may thicken
Thursday night, will have to keep an eye for the potential of one
more night of wind chill advisories across northeastern Iowa.
Temperatures will rise into this weekend as southerly surface and
southwesterly low level flow develop. By Saturday, temperatures will
have returned to above normal levels. Moisture will also be gathered
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the region; however, depth
of moisture over central Iowa looks questionable. This is confirmed
by output from the ensembles and cluster analysis indicating most
precipitation will be east of the forecast area. Colder air will
follow behind a cold front with temperatures back into the teens and
20s to end the weekend and start next week.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
Arctic front will blast through the state this evening with south
winds becoming very strong from the west northwest. These strong
winds are expected to persist overnight into Wednesday with only
gradual weakening. Areas of blowing snow are expected where the
snowpack currently exists with reduced visibilities overnight. Low
ceilings are forecast behind the front over much of the state
tonight into Wednesday as well with MVFR to locally IFR
conditions.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ004>006-
015-016-048-059>061-071>073-081>083-092-093.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ023>025-033>036-
044>047-057-058-070.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for IAZ007-017-
026>028-037>039-049-050.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
Wednesday for IAZ074-075-084>086-094>097.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Wednesday for IAZ062.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 5 pm MST for western
counties. Imperial has had the highest gust so far at 79 mph.
Other reporting gusts have been near or around 60 mph this
afternoon. The Arctic cold front moving through the northwest
Sandhills attm. Temperatures at Rapid City and Phillip SD have
already fallen into the upper teens behind the front with gusty
northwest winds near 50 mph. Also, Gordon AWOS has fallen to 24
degrees with north wind gust to 40 mph. Ahead of the front,
temperatures have reached into the 50s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
Just updated the forecast to expire the high wind warning for the
western Sandhills and far southwestern Nebraska. AS of 6 PM CT,
the strongest winds were at Imperial and North Platte with wind
gusts of 47 and 48 MPH respectively. Winds will gradually diminish
from west to east overnight, then increase once again on
Wednesday. Will be sending out a public information statement on
peak gusts from this afternoon shortly. Rest of the forecast
remains on track as the light snow has ended across portions of
north central Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
The forecast concern in the short term will be significant snowfall
potential Wednesday into Wednesday evening and bitter cold
temperatures.
An upper trough will move from the Northern Plains into the
western Great Lakes tonight. This will draw in much colder
temperatures across western NE tonight with lows from 0 to 8
below north central and wind chills 20 below to 29 below as
northwest winds gust from 15 to 25 mph at times. A wind chill
advisory remains in effect for all of north central NE from 09Z
Wednesday through the afternoon.
Computer models have come into better agreement on a band of
significant snowfall across wrn Nebraska Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. There are still track differences regarding the location of
a 50 mile wide band of the heaviest snow. The 12Z GFS remains
farthest south and an outlier, centered from Sidney through Grant
and Hayes Center. The 12Z NAMNest, 12Z NAM, 12Z HRRR, 12z HREF,
09Z SREF mean, and 12Z ECMWF are all closer the current forecast.
The current forecast continues to focus the heavier snowfall in a
50 mile wide band centered along highway 26 in the Panhandle and
then southeast to near and south of I-80 through North Platte and
Brady.
This system will track southeast from WY into the panhandle across
west central and southwest NE. Fairly strong isentropic upglide is
indicated by the 12Z NAM from the 285K surface all the way up to the
300K surface. Downglide quickly increases from northwest to
southeast during the evening. Similar to the recent snow event on
Dec. 31 into Jan 1st, snow ratios will be high, due to the presence
of arctic air in place. Currently using a 17-18:1 ratio Wed. into
Wednesday evening. Within the axis of highest QPFs, from 0.30 to
0.40 inch, resulting snowfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are
forecast. Higher ratios of 25:1 are supported by various models
including the RAP and HRRR. Bufkit soundings show a very
favorable snow growth environment in the arctic air. Frontogenesis
and lift is strong in the dendritic growth zone which, for this
system, is quite deep, from 550-850mb. The 12Z HREF mean indicates
1-hr snowfall rates from 3/4 inch to 1 inch per hour where the
band of heaviest snowfall occurs. This further increases the
concern that impacts will be high for travelers from late morning
through the afternoon hours from low visibility below a mile at
times from falling and blowing snow.
In addition to the snow, northeast winds will become north by
evening with frequent gusts from 15 to 25 mph. Blowing snow is
forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Wind chill values are forecast to fall to 25 to around 35 below
zero overnight Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Morning
lows 10 below to 15 below most locations. Wind Chill Advisories
have been issued for all counties I80 and south, while a Wind
Chill Warning issued for all remaining counties to the north.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
The forecast concern in the long term will be bitter cold
temperatures Thursday and Thursday night.
Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories in effect Thursday morning. An
expansive upper trough will extend from the Northern Plains into
the Great Lakes and Midwest. Very cold temperatures on Thursday,
with highs only 5 to 15 above. Weak warm air advection aloft
begins Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring a chance
for light snow into Thursday evening, mainly across the western
Sandhills and north central NE. Little if any accumulations
expected.
Dry conditions Friday through Tuesday. The next upper trough moves
into the region Saturday, which is forecast to bring a cold front
into the area. Highs Saturday should manage to reach into the 40s as
the cold front moves through, then colder in the upper 20s to
upper 30s Sunday. Warming back up by next Monday and Tuesday as
upper ridging builds back in.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of tonight into tomorrow
morning. Strong gusty northwest winds will diminish by mid evening
to around 10 to 15 kts out of the northwest. Low to mid level
clouds will move into the area Wednesday afternoon. Snow will
develop across western Nebraska in the morning and spread eastward
in the afternoon affecting both KVTN and KLBF terminals.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Wednesday to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ022-035-056>059.
Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ056>059-069>071.
Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-094.
Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Wednesday for NEZ004>010-023>029-094.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Wednesday to 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ023-036>038-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Buttler
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
950 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is largely on track with only some minor
adjustments to temperatures based on observational trends and
latest guidance. Readings have likely fallen as much as they are
going to amid return southerly flow and the expected increasing
cloud cover overnight.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 602 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022/
DISCUSSION...
00Z 04JAN2022 TAFs
AVIATION...
Not much change in thinking from previous forecast. More moisture
is seeping into the area due to light southerly flow. Increase in
cloud coverage is expected tonight with a few lower MVFR decks.
VIS restrictions will be minimal at best. Even with the return of
moisture, winds will stay around 3~6kts which will help in
preventing dense fog.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...
Broad area of surface high pressure has finally slid east and is now
centered atop the Mid-Atlantic states. Locally, this has resulted in
easterly winds gradually shifting more southerly, and has allowed
temps to moderate back to near seasonal averages this afternoon.
Evidence of increasing moisture is also seen via GOES-E visible
satellite with an increase in low level Cu noted over far SE TX and
SW LA. This is also further reflected in the surface dew points,
with KBPT for example showing an increase of around 10 degrees over
the last 6 hours or so. With the moderating trend, the forecast area
will remain safe from the threat of any sub-freezing temperatures
tonight. On the other hand, the bump up of moisture along with light
southerly winds will bring back some potential for some patchy fog
after midnight.
Over the following couple of days, shortwave energy aloft digs
through the broad longwave trough pattern set up over the E CONUS,
resulting in some gradual local height falls. HRRR and other CAM
guidance suggests maybe a few showers for Wednesday, but given a
modest cap, meager forcing, and PWATS ~0.75", opted to keep PoPs
below mentionable levels in the Wx grids. By late Wednesday into
Thursday, weak surface troughing and cold front induced by the upper
level trough push into the local forecast region. Not much in the
way of fanfare as the system pushes through... PWATS remain in the
0.75" to 1.00" range (near the climatological median moving average)
and overall forcing remains pretty minimal, so really only expecting
some isolated to scattered showers with FROPA. In regards to timing,
it appears things should wrap up during the morning hours Thursday,
with gradual clearing through the day. Breezy NW winds develop
behind the front, advecting cold air back into the area. Freezing
temps once again look like a possibility in portions of east-central
Texas and central Louisiana Thursday night into Friday morning.
50
LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
High pressure will slip east across the Ohio Valley during Friday as
another low pressure system enters the plains. A weak area of low
pressure will also develop near far South Texas. Through Friday
evening and into Saturday the return flow will began and the area of
low pressure in the gulf will lift north as another low moves
farther into the plains. Rain chance will increase Saturday as lift
and moisture increases.
Low pressure will sink southeast from the plains while weakening
into Sunday as high pressure moves into the Dakotas. This will shove
a cold front through the area Sunday with showers and thunderstorms
possible. Dry and cool weather will return for early next week
behind the front.
05
MARINE...
High pressure remains in close proximity to the region, which
will allow winds to remain fairly light out of the south through
the day. Light to at times moderate onshore flow then persists
through early Thursday, with the possibility of marine fog
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as well as Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. A few rain showers will be possible
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold frontal boundary
passes through. Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the
front and then persist through Friday. By Saturday, winds once
again shift to a moderate onshore flow.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 44 69 51 60 / 10 10 20 10
LCH 48 72 55 69 / 10 10 10 0
LFT 49 70 56 69 / 0 10 20 10
BPT 52 73 56 70 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
721 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
...EVENING UPDATE...
Performed a small gridded update to follow latest obs and short-
range guidance/trends. Looking likely we will see low clouds
increase later tonight in response to a distinct surge of moisture
advection in the low-levels out ahead of a southward drifting
cold front to our north. KLIX 00Z RAOB is downright dry this
evening with PW`s in the 0.30" range, and strong subsidence
inversion base sitting around 2500ft AGL/925mb. HRRR soundings for
tonight through early tomorrow illustrates noticeable deep-moist
ascent lifting the inversion throughout the night, revealing a
deepening moist layer between the ascending inversion base and
near-surface layer meaning clouds will thicken through daybreak.
Already seeing a low stratus deck offshore southern coastal LA,
which will spread north and east through the rest of tonight.
However, with the proximity of the surface high just to our east,
some central and eastern areas may drop much faster early on in
the night as radiational cooling will be maximized prior to clouds
coming in later tonight/early tomorrow. Once clouds settle in,
expect the drop in temperatures to slow down towards daybreak
settling to the mid to upper 40`s for western and southern/coastal
LA areas (where clouds will come in earliest) to the low 40`s/mid
to upper 30`s to the east across coastal MS closer to the surface
high with radiational cooling maximized early on (and where
clouds will come in the latest early Wednesday morning). Handled
this set up riding near the deterministic NBM for the western half
of the CWA as deterministic guidance is on the warmer side of
ensemble blends, but went several degrees cooler for eastern areas
as hourly temperature trends are already dropping pretty quick.
Should clouds lag building northeast and temperatures keep
dropping below expectations, may make an additional update later
tonight to reflect a colder trend in temperatures. Will keep
watching. KLG
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022/
SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Thursday...
Tonight into Wednesday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level
pattern. Southerly surface winds will act to enhance warm air and
moisture advection into the region, which will increase the
instability in the atmosphere. Weak low level convergence will
act to enhance lifting in the environment. An isolated shower or
two will be possible tomorrow during peak daytime heating hours,
especially along the coastal areas. Thunder/lightning is not
expected with these showers, but a lightning strike or two may
occur inside any stronger showers and cannot be ruled out.
Thursday, an upper level low pressure system is expected to move
through the area, which will enhance rain chances for the area
some. Southerly surface winds ahead of the frontal system will
help increase instability in the region. Weak upper level
divergence will help increase lifting in the environment. Looking
at the models, scattered showers will be possible as this system
moves through the area. Thunder/Lightning is not likely with this
system, but it cannot be ruled out, especially inside of any
stronger storms or over the marine areas. Some sub-severe wind
gusts (30-60mph) could be possible inside a stronger shower as
well. Based on the models, rain chances are fairly low with this
system, but a stronger storm or two is possible. There is still
some model uncertainty/disagreement concerning the timing of the
frontal passage. The general trend in the models is that the
system will move through the area during the early morning through
mid-day hours primarily on Thursday. Surface winds will shift
northerly during the daytime hours on Thursday, which will enhance
cold air advection and dry air advection into the region Thursday
night into Friday morning. MSW
LONG TERM...
Friday through Monday...
Friday morning, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern.
Strong northerly surface winds will help to advect cold and dry
air into the area. Convergence aloft will also act to enhance
sinking and more stable air in the atmosphere. As a result, low
temperatures on Friday morning will be ranging from the upper 20s
to upper 30s across the area. Clear skies and calm winds could
lead to some radiational cooling Friday morning as well, so it is
possible that temperatures could be even cooler than forecast. It
will be worth looking into a little more as we get through the
next couple of days and models are a bit more in agreement.
Friday will be mostly a transitional day pattern-wise. A very weak
upper level shortwave will influence the area, and zonal flow will
dominate the upper level pattern. Easterly surface winds will help
to reintroduce some moisture and warm air into the region, which
will help enhance some instability in the environment. Some upper
level divergence will help to enhance and reintroduce some lifting
back into the environment as well. Conditions will still be dry on
Friday as the environment becomes gradually more unstable and
moisture returns slowly through the day into Saturday.
Saturday through Monday, a shortwave coming up from the Gulf will
influence the area and combine/phase with a low pressure system
moving of the Northeast coast of the US, which will enhance rain
chances for the area through the weekend. Southerly surface winds
will help to enhance warm air and moisture advection into the area
Saturday and Sunday ahead of the frontal system. Upper level
divergence Saturday during the daytime hours as the shortwave moves
through the area will help to enhance lifting in the environment as
the moisture is increased over our area. The models are still very
uncertain on the timing and placement of the shortwave in relation
to the best instability/moisture, so this will be worth watching as
we move through the week. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible
over the weekend, depending on whether the parameters line up well
in the end and how well the models initialize these variables.
Sunday into Monday, the frontal system is expected to move through
the area. Southerly surface winds will continue to enhance warm air
and moisture in the environment, which will help enhance
instability. Low-level convergence ahead of the line Sunday
afternoon and evening in our northernmost areas will act to enhance
lifting in the environment. Dynamic forcing, based on the models,
should be fairly decent as well. And shear as a whole, looking at
the models, seems to be decent for our area as well on Sunday into
Monday (45-55kts). The models are still uncertain and in
disagreement on the timing of the best dynamics in relation to the
front moving through the area, but this will be worth watching as we
go through the week, depending on how the system develops.
On the backside of the front, strong northerly flow develops which
will advect in cold air and dry air to the area. Upper level
convergence will help enhance sinking and stable air in the region.
As a result, conditions will be dry once the frontal system moves
through early Monday morning. Depending on how quickly the front
moves through on Monday morning, some areas could have enough time
to cool down some fairly quickly before daybreak Monday, which will
lead to the beginning of some cooler temperatures, especially in the
northernmost locations of our area. Cloud cover may moderate the
temperatures some on Monday morning and through the day.
Consequently, lows on Monday are currently forecast to be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. This
could trend warmer or colder depending on how the timing of the
front changes as we go through the week and how much cloud cover is
expected to linger on Monday. And thanks to the northerly flow and
dry air advection combined with a stable environment, Monday will be
dry and cool for our area. MSW
AVIATION (00Z TAF DISCUSSION)...
Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals late this
evening/early tonight with light SFC winds and SKC/FEW250.
Southerly moist return flow will introduce low clouds building
later tonight into daybreak Wednesday, ranging 2000 to 3000 ft AGL
which will deliver primarily MVFR flight categories for just
about all terminals. SCT to BKN low clouds will persist into the
day on Wednesday at times, with VFR/MVFR prevailing. Otherwise,
surface winds remain light with no significant hazards expected
through late Wednesday evening. KLG
MARINE...
Winds will be moderate (<15 knots) and southerly tonight through
Thursday. Friday, winds will be northerly and strong (15-25
knots). Saturday, winds will be easterly to southeasterly and
strong (15-25 knots). Sunday, winds will be southerly and strong
(15-20 knots) during the morning hours and transitioning to
moderate (<15 knots) by the afternoon hours. Monday, winds will be
northerly and stronger (20-30 knots). Tuesday, winds will be
strong (20-30 knots) and northerly. Wave heights will correspond
to the wind speeds. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 65 51 65 / 0 10 30 20
BTR 44 68 54 69 / 0 10 30 10
ASD 43 68 55 73 / 10 10 30 20
MSY 49 67 58 73 / 10 10 30 20
GPT 42 66 56 71 / 0 10 30 30
PQL 38 65 53 71 / 0 10 30 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
930 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
We have decided to upgrade Stevens county into a Blizzard Warning
for the rest of tonight. The catalyst for that was the observation at
Morris which has been reporting 1/4 mile visibility since 815pm with
winds gusting to between 35 and 40 mph. These conditions are
expected to persist through at least sunrise. A further expansion
into Swift and Pope counties may be needed, but will monitor
observation trends in those counties before expanding further.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
Key Messages:
- Winter Weather Advisory issued beginning at 6pm this evening in
western, spreading eastwards to the rest of the MPX CWA by 9pm.
Lasts through 9pm tomorrow. Near-whiteout conditions are possible
across primarily western MN, with sporadic areas of whiteout
conditions elsewhere.
- Snow will fall this evening through most of tomorrow, with light
snow tapering off in western WI on Thursday morning. Highest
snowfall amounts are expected north of I-94, especially in western
WI where 3-6 inches are possible. Totals of 1-2 inches are possible
in far southern MN, with 2-4 inches along and west of the Twin
Cities metro.
- Thursday and Friday will see a return to below zero temperatures
with another blast of arctic air. Expect wind chill headlines for
Thursday to arrive once we get through most of our winter weather
advisory.
Today has remained mostly cloudy and mild with temperatures currently
varying from around 20 in central MN to the mid 30s in portions of
southern MN along I-90. Light snow is working its way through the
Dakotas and will be arriving in western MN around 00z, spreading
eastwards through the rest of the night and for much of the day
tomorrow. This system is characterized by a fairly broad upper level
trough with a surface low pressure center strengthening as it moves
over the area, with weak to moderate overall forcing amidst a fairly
saturated atmosphere. This will result in a fairly deep dendritic
growth zone, which coupled with our relatively weak forcing will
result in light to moderate snowfall. The bigger forecast concern in
this case will be strong winds increasing as the surface low passes
through and continues to strengthen, with a strengthening gradient
bringing strong northwesterly winds overnight and tomorrow. The
impact from this wind is twofold, both breaking up the dendrites to
bring down snow ratios a bit, while also funneling cold air
southwards with a plunge back towards frigid air temperatures on
Thursday. Overall snow amounts will vary quite a bit based on
location, and will prove difficult to measure due to the winds; We
can generally expect 3-6 inches along and north of I-94 with the
highest totals in western WI, 2-4 inches just south of I-94 including
the Twin Cities, and 1-2 inches in far southern Minnesota. We will
likely see sporadic areas of whiteout conditions, but at least with
this current forecast decided to stay out of any blizzard warnings
due to mediocre confidence in seeing it last for 3 hours or more.
Arctic air returns behind the system with falling temperatures
through Friday morning, falling into the single digits tomorrow
during the day as wind chills will likely reach advisory criteria
tomorrow night and early Thursday morning. High temperatures will
generally remain below zero on Thursday and remain quite cold into
Friday morning before we look to recover into the single digits on
Friday and 20s/30s on Saturday before yet another plunge back down
into the single digits or below zero Sunday and Monday behind a cold
front. Thankfully after Monday, most long range models are showing a
trend for normal to above normal temperatures through the middle of
the month with a lack of active weather. Another light snow chance
arrives with the front itself on Saturday, however this looks to be
fairly light and non-impact at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
As surface low just southwest of MSP moves east over the next couple
of hours, we`ll quickly see wrap around snow and gusty northwest
winds move across MN and into WI. Biggest question with this event
is how long to carry prevailing -SN. BUFKIT soundings and HRRR vis
forecast show -SN lingering outside of RWF/MKT through Wed
afternoon, with it remaining in WI through Wednesday night, so did
extend prevailing snow mention out in this TAF update. Winds will be
jumping at RWF/MKT, with gusts over 40 kts possible, but gust
potential drops off pretty quick as you go northeast of these
airports, with MSP expecting to top out between 30 and 35 kts on the
gusts.
KMSP...Heaviest snow, when vis could dip down to 3/4s is expected
between 8z and 14z. From the late morning through the rest of the
period, we get into a snow shower type environment, so we could spend
quite a bit of time bouncing between 1sm and P6sm vis depending on
where convective rolls setup.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs in evening. Wind SE 10-15kts.
SAT...MVFR. Chc IFR cigs. Wind S 10-15kts bcmg NW 15G25 kts late.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton-
Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-
Faribault-Freeborn-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-
Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-
Wright-Yellow Medicine.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for Stevens.
Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Stevens.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for Goodhue.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for Barron-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
245 PM PST Tue Jan 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Light showers diminishing this afternoon. Another
weak system brings additional light rain to North Bay tonight.
Drying conditions develop Wednesday into Thursday before another
weak weather system brings more rain Friday. Weekend outlook is
dry. Temperatures remain seasonable through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 02:30 PM PST Tuesday...General forecast
outlook hasn`t changed much. There are some very isolated light
showers still occurring across our CWA, but they will continue to
lessen by this evening. Hi-res NAM 3k and HRRR both showing that
there could be additional light showers that track across North
Bay after midnight tonight and should move out of the area by
Wednesday morning. This wave will likely only amount to less than
a tenth of an inch for most of North Bay except along the northern
Sonoma county coastline where they may see 0.10-0.20". In radar
news, KMUX is functioning again after a few hours of maintenance
earlier today which will help us track the overnight light
showers.
High pressure over the Pacific Ocean will move closer to the West
Coast tomorrow which will bring drier conditions for the rest of
Wednesday into Thursday. Then we have another weak system that
will bring the next wave of light rain to our region on Friday.
Timing of this weak front will start early Friday morning for the
North Bay (ballpark window is a couple hours before sunrise). Then
it will spread across the rest of our CWA the rest of Friday. Our
initial forecast estimates for rain totals on Friday range from a
few hundredths up to around a half inch. Keep in mind that the
southern portions of Monterey and San Benito counties may not get
any rain and that the coastal mountains may get locally higher
amounts around an inch. This is yet another weak system that will
bring us beneficial rain without the worry of significant
flooding.
Dry again for the weekend as another high pressure ridge develops
over the West Coast. Keep in mind that the mornings will be
chiller this weekend dipping down into the mid 30s by Sunday for
our colder inland valleys. Otherwise, temperatures the rest of the
forecast should be fairly seasonal.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 4:00 AM PST Tuesday...For the 12Z TAFs. MVFR to
IFR as light RA and BR/FG remain scattered around the area.
Ceilings and visibilities will start to lift and scatter to VFR
after 16-17Z this morning. Skies will remain SCT-BKN through most of
the day today. Cloud cover will last into Tuesday night as well
giving most terminals a chance for IFR ceilings to return after 06Z
Wednesday. Winds will remain light and southerly through this
afternoon when winds will veer northwesterly.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR with -RA continuing to clear out this
morning. Southwest 5 to 10 knots through this afternoon, then winds
turn northwesterly but remain light. VFR this afternoon with skies
SCT-BKN. Chance for IFR/MVFR ceilings to return tonight after 06Z.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR as -RA moves out of the area this
morning. Light winds through the period. Skies will lift this
afternoon. Chance for IFR ceilings return tonight.
&&
.MARINE...as of 02:30 PM PST Tuesday...Light to moderate
southwesterly winds will continue across the coastal waters
through tonight as a cold front pass to the north. Winds will
become westerly by midweek before turning southwesterly once
again ahead of the next front that is forecast to move through
Thursday night into Friday. Large and steep northwesterly swell
will gradually diminish tonight into Wednesday, falling below 10
ft by Wednesday night. Swells are anticipated to increase once
again Friday as winds strengthen with the approaching front.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman
AVIATION: Dhuyvetter
MARINE: CW
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 PM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
Updated to end high wind warning, with damaging winds no longer
anticipated. With that said, west winds of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts of 50 to 60 mph, strongest over the higher terrain, will
slowly diminish through the evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
...Another Windy Day Tomorrow, With Arctic Air Moving In By Late
Afternoon...
Currently...
Windy conditions prevailed over some regions of the forecast area
this afternoon, mainly in the typically wind prone areas in El Paso,
eastern Fremont, Pueblo counties. Wins were generally in the 20 to
30 knt range with gusts in the 40s. It was also windy across the
southern sections of the central mtns. Over the remainder of the
region, including most of the plains, the San Luis Valley (SLV), and
the southwest mtns, winds were relatively light.
Except for passing bands of cirrus, skies were clear over most of
the region. However, cloudiness was more prevalent along the divide,
especially the central mtns.
Rest of Today...
Winds in wind prone area are gradually expected to weaken over the
area, especially lower elevations towards sunset. However winds will
likely keep up through the evening hours over the higher elevations
of the central and southern mtns, and the Pikes Peak region. Given
this, will allow the high wind warning which is in effect for a few
parts of the region to expire at 00 UTC (5 pm) this evening.
Tonight...
Only areas of windy conditions will be mtn top region, excluding the
SW mtns. Snow will begin to ramp up across the central mtns, with
the brunt of it generally north of Cottonwood Pass. Otherwise,
anticipate a cold night across the fcst area, with lows in the 20s
along the I-25 corridor and 10s over the far eastern plains. The SLV
should once again see single digit values while the remainder of the
higher terrains will see mostly tens, with single digits mtn top
levels.
Tomorrow...
Another windy day is anticipated over the entire region. Tomorrows
wind event will likely be more widespread than todays as all of the
fcst area will likely see breezy to very windy conditions. There is
some uncertainty regarding how windy it will get as the HRRR wants
to bring in some very strong winds across the Ramparts/Pikes Peak
and brings some of these stronger gusty down into NW Pueblo county.
The Sangre and the top of the Wets also are fcst to see some winds
above hurricane force. However, other guidance is not a strong as
the HRRR. For now, I have it quite windy in these area, but not as
strong at the HRRR fcst. Over the remainder of the region, it will
be quite breezy to windy, with gusts in teh 25 to 35 knt range over
the remainder of the plains and SLV, and 35 to 50 knts the rest of
the mtns.
Snow will be falling across the central mtns, and as discussed
above, it is going to be quite windy. Winter weather highlights are
in effect for the central mtns along with the lower elevations of
Lake County. Several additional inches of wind blown snow are near
certain.
By mid to late afternoon, a strong arctic front is going to push
south of the Palmer Divide and this will bring in much colder air
into the region. Snow showers will be possible over northern El Paso
county by rush hour, and travel may become more cumbersome for those
commuters on I-25 going across the I-25 Gap Project. Before the
front goes by, we should see max temps in the 40s to M50s across the
plains, with the warmest temps over the southern I-25 corridor
region. /Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
...Key Messages
- Snow continuing Wednesday night into Thursday mainly across the
central mountains.
- Chances for light snow remain Wednesday night across the Palmer
Divide and areas east/southeast into Kiowa county.
- Gusty northerly winds and much colder air arrive Wednesday night,
with area wide subzero wind chills appearing likely across the
plains.
- Additional light snow chances this Saturday and Saturday night
across the higher elevations and adjacent locations...
Strong mid/upper jet along with more energetic flow anticipated to
slide southeast into the region at the start of the period, while a
strong cold front ushers in a much colder air mass. This should
allow some increases in snow intensity across the central mountains,
with moderate to occasionally heavy snow expected Wednesday night.
Snow amounts during this time have been slightly increased, with the
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisory across the central mountains and
Lake county still warranted. As the stronger ascent shifts east
Thursday morning, anticipate snow intensity to weaken with much of
the impactful snow ending by around midday.
The arrival of the cold front is anticipated right around the start
of the period, with strong CAA expected through the evening. The
arrival of this front across the plains will be noted by this much
colder air, but also with strong northerly winds. Made some
adjustments but may still be a little light on the winds, especially
during FROPA. Current forecast has winds gusting to around 45 mph,
but could easily see gusts briefly higher, up to around 55 mph in
the evening. In the wake of this front, increasing large scale
ascent along with upslope flow and some other mesoscale forcing will
support developing snow along the Palmer Divide and areas to the
east/southeast into Kiowa county Wednesday evening/night. This
continues to look like only a period of light snow with minor
amounts up to around an inch, maybe two. Potential for heavier snow
remains just to the north though, and will continue to closely
monitor later trends. Lastly, cold temperatures with low wind chills
are appearing likely across the plains Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. These low temps with strong northerly winds will support
area wide subzero wind chills across the plains, with the lowest
expected over the far eastern plains. This could easily change
though, with further refinements to the winds and low temps expected
with later updates.
Cold air mass quickly retreats Thursday with warming temps expected
during the day and even into the night, as westerly flow remains in
place. Given the cold start, retreating air mass, and expected
setup, many locations will likely observe their forecast highs
during the evening. Above normal temperatures will return at the
start of the weekend, before another system moves across the region
on Saturday. Snow expected across the central mountains, with some
potential for precip across the eastern mountains and plains, though
confidence is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 254 PM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
VFR conditions are anticipate during the next 24 hours at each of
the 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS, but there is some uncertainty
for KCOS and KALS. First, some lower cigs and snow showers *may*
occur at the end of this period at KCOS as an arctic front moves
across the KCOS region around 21-22 UTC. For KALS, They got above
freezing today and some of the snow melted, and this added some low
level moisture into the boundary layer. This may lead to some GF at
this taf site during the early morning hours tomorrow.
KPUB should be VFR next 24 hours.
Very gusty winds at KCOS and KPUB will decrease prior to sunset
today. It will once again become windy at all 3 taf sites by
tomorrow afternoon. As mentioned already, an arctic front will move
across KCOS during the 21-22 UTC time frame tomorrow, and across KPUB
around 22-23 UTC.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ059.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST Thursday
for COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Air temps are warmer by 5 to as much as 10 or 20 degrees warmer
this evening than and last falling into the 40s for most locales.
DeQueen is 35 for the coldest by far and its inverse of 53 is last
hour in Nacogdoches for the warm spot. Light S or E winds will
linger overnight and back to NE toward daybreak as a weak front
settles into our I-30 corridor early and down toward I-20 by mid
morning. This front is crossing into N OK at this time. It will
keep mostly to our north with the light and shifting winds helping
to keep the fog around into mid to late morning. Hard to say
where any 1/4 issues may unfold at this time and we continue with
a broad brush of patchy dense fog area wide. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022/
AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR into the overnight with a weak
fropa coming at daybreak. Light E winds will back to NE around
5KT or less. This weak cool front will be arriving during the
morning lows, so the chilled and moist air will likely fog with
IFR/MVFR cigs as well. Brief VLIFR is possible 10-13Z. We can
expect VFR by late morning. Wed. will see additional clouds in the
aftn/eve with a few nearby shwrs as we will see a stronger fropa
into Thurs. shifting winds to due N and gusty for early. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night
Warmer afternoon today thanks to returning southerly low level
flow with a cu field noted on satellite across SE TX into SW LA
attm. High thin cirrus continues to spill south and east across
the Southern Plains into our region this afternoon as well but low
level warm air advection is winning out. Taking a look at regional
observations, there is a notable wind shift depicting a cold front
across the OK/TX Pnhdl and that feature will need to be monitored
closely for the development of dense fog across our region
tonight.
Both the HRRR and NAM 3km 2 meter wind field/vsby field shows this
boundary continuing to move south and east into our region
overnight with low level moisture feeding into it and dense fog
developing just in the wake of this boundary in the 10z-16z
timeframe on Wed. Have added patchy dense fog to the grids
overnight to account but stopped just shy of issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory as the NBM is showing more very low cloud cover vs very
low vsbys. Both the HRRR and NAM do stop just short of dense fog
forming across our far northwest zones as this would likely become
freezing fog were it to occur.
This weak cold front should stall near or just south of the I-20
Corridor on Wednesday before buckling and trying to lift back ever
so slightly northward on Wednesday Night along our right flank.
There may be enough isentropic forcing for the development of
scattered showers across our eastern third Wed Night as low level
moisture begins to overrun the sfc boundary. /13/
LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
The Four State Region`s temperature pattern for this week has been
compared to a see-saw, and that looks to remain the case through the
long term forecast period. By Thursday morning, northwesterly flow
aloft and at the surface behind the passing cold front will return
area temperatures to below average values yet again. Thursday
afternoon will see temperatures rebound only into the 40s across SE
OK and SW AR to upper 50s south, maybe hitting 60 in deep east
Texas, before falling to lows in the 20s across the majority of the
area for Friday morning. Friday afternoon looks to be similar to
Thursday, if not a degree or two chillier at some sites. Dry
conditions will prevail through the end of the workweek, with clouds
departing Thursday and clear skies dominating through Friday night.
The next significant chance for rainfall will set up as the weekend
begins, with southerly surface flow reintroducing a moisture to the
ArkLaTex as upper level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of the next
upper level disturbance, with this combination suggesting a very
moist environment. Long term guidance suggests accordingly high PWAT
values across the Four state Region through the weekend, with SPC
QPFs of a quarter up to half an inch across much of the area, with
locally higher amounts in the neighborhood of 1 inch possible.
Current timing has rainfall beginning around daybreak Saturday and
continuing areawide through the day and overnight before beginning
to diminish from northwest to southeast Sunday morning, exiting the
region completely by the end of the day Sunday. While confidence is
high in widespread rainfall, discrepancy still exists as to the
presence of thunder with this system. NBM guidance this afternoon is
not generating high probabilities for thunder through the weekend,
and while above average, temperatures are not looking especially
favorable for widespread convection at this time. Likewise, neither
are strong to severe thunderstorms expected with this system. Will
continue to monitor subsequent model runs and guidance through the
week.
The weekend`s system will meet temperatures in the 60s areawide,
with a few sites across our southern zones maybe reaching the low to
mid 70s Sunday afternoon in advance of the cold front. Will monitor
timing in forthcoming updates. Behind the front, temperatures will
again be reset to a below average regime, with lows in the 20s and
30s and highs in the 50s under clearing skies as the new workweek
begins. /26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 42 64 44 51 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 38 62 43 51 / 0 10 40 10
DEQ 30 58 33 42 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 38 58 38 44 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 34 58 34 43 / 0 0 20 0
TYR 41 63 39 51 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 64 40 52 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 69 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/99/99