Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/03/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
656 PM CST Sun Jan 2 2022
/Updated at 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022/
Widespread rain has developed over central Alabama in response to
a strong mid-level trof over Mississippi. Radar images indicate
pockets of bright banding over west Alabama where mixed phase
precipitation is occurring. Light rain still being reported at
most sites across far eastern Mississippi. The change over to all
snow normally occurs with a 1000-850mb thickness of 1290 meters,
but this system does not have a layer of near freezing
temperatures at the low levels, so it is having to cool a fairly
large layer of above freezing temperatures from top to bottom.
The layer of above freezing temperatures is likely several
thousand feet thick, and this is likely the reason it is taking
lower thickness values for the transition to snow. Analysis
has a thickness near 1280 meters based on RAP model and
observations where rain has changed over to snow in Mississippi.
Also, the pcpn is coming to an end fairly quickly over eastern MS,
so time is running out for the transition to occur before moisture
moves out of Alabama. Wet ground conditions will also hinder any
snow accumulation. Will reassess things over the next few hours
to see if the advisory needs to be cancelled for some counties.
Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 1223 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022/
Features of Interest.
A deep longwave trough extends from Southeast Canada southwest to
over Eastern Texas while a broad ridging prevailed over much of
the Desert Southwest. An surface low was centered across Coastal
Mississippi while a cold front was moving through our southeast
counties at this writing. A secondary cold front was analyzed from
Jackson, MS northeast across eastern Tennessee, which was acting
as the demarcation between cooler temperatures across our central
counties and colder temperatures in the 30s and 40s northwest of
The deep longwave trough will continue to move over the Arklatex
region through early afternoon, then will swing east, becoming
positioned over the Mid-South region by this evening and moving
over our area by midnight tonight. A closed low aloft looks to
develop within the trough as the system swings northeast over the
Carolinas early in the morning hours on Monday.
The existing cold front across our southeast counties will
decelerate as a wave of low pressure moves northeast from the
Central Gulf Coast region across the Southeast Alabama Wiregrass
region this afternoon. The surface low will become positioned
favorably to the southeast of the potent trough and developing
closed low this evening across South-Central Georgia.
Strengthening northwest winds will result as rapidly deepening
cyclogenesis ensues, which will effectively pull the secondary
cold front across our northwest through the forecast area
overnight, resulting in strong low-level cold advection with
plunging temperatures to below freezing across the northwest near
midnight and across much of our north-central counties toward 4
am. Steeping lapse rates under the cold core low will support
strong ascent, resulting in increasing precipitation rates.
Forecast precipitable water values will remain at or above an inch
across the area into early evening with values decreasing to
about a half of an inch across the west after 6 pm and similarly
across the east after 10 pm. Despite the overall decreasing
moisture through the column, the shallow moisture content in the
lower level will persist for longer and will support precipitation
this evening through the early morning hours on Monday.
Rain showers initially moving into the area from the west will
persist late this afternoon then transitioning to rain to snow
mix, then ending as all snow across the northwest by 6 pm,
transitioning across our north-central counties by 10 pm, and the
transition beginning across our eastern counties toward midnight.
The precipitation will gradually decrease in intensity as the
lower levels gradually dry out, generally after midnight across
the northwest, after 4 am across the central and after 7 am across
the northeast. We are expecting a quick-hitting system capable of
producing high precipitation rates. Overall, we expect amounts
from 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch common across areas generally along
and north of I-20. We expect higher amounts in the elevated
terrain across portions of our east-central and northeast counties
with some spots getting up to 2 inches.
Surface temperatures will rise above freezing across the entire
forecast area by noontime on Monday. Please be aware that
temperatures will quickly fall Monday evening with freezing
temperatures returning to our northern counties by 5 pm. Any
residual moisture, especially on elevated surfaces, will freeze
overnight Monday night.
Expect cloudy skies with lingering showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm southeast through late afternoon as a cold front
moves through this area. A secondary front will move southeast
across the area late this afternoon and into the evening, ushering
in freezing temperatures from the northwest. An approaching upper
low will support developing rain showers from northwest to
southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Rain will
begin to mix with snow northwest by late afternoon into the
evening. Highs today will range from the mid 50s northwest to the
upper 70s far southeast. Winds will be increasing from the
northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph east and southeast late.
Cloudy skies are forecast tonight with northwest winds persisting
10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph east and southeast. Rain will
continue to move from west to east across the area with rain
transitioning to snow across the northern portion of the area from
west to east from this evening through early Monday morning. Lows
will range from the mid 20s northwest to near freezing southeast.
Expect morning clouds with some lingering snow showers east and
northeast through early morning, then dry with gradual decreasing
clouds through the day from the west and southwest. Highs will
range from the upper 30s far north to near 50 far southeast. Winds
will be from the northwest 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph east.
/Updated at 0249 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022/
No major changes to long term forecast.
Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0256 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022/
Cold advection will continue with clear and cold conditions
Monday night. Lows Tuesday morning should range range from the mid
20s to lower 30s. High pressure will quickly shift eastward on
Tuesday as a large trough begins to take shape across the CONUS.
Another upper level shortwave will dig into the eastern half of
the country late Wednesday into Friday. This will bring another
chance of showers Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, followed by
a probably even colder airmass by the week`s end. A second
shortwave will work through on Sunday. Will need to keep an eye
out on the temperatures and and the onset of the rain. Will likely
see the temperatures rise before the rain works in but it will be
close overnight Wednesday through Thursday.
00Z TAF Discussion.
A surface cold front has pushed thru all of central Alabama with
north winds at all sites. Wind speeds will increase overnight as a
surface low develops over southeast Alabama and rapidly deepens as
it tracks northeast across Georgia. The deepening sfc low is in
response to a cold core upper low that is taking on a negative
tilt as it crosses over Alabama. North winds will increase to near
15 kts sustained with gusts to 25 kts thru at least 15z, then
slowly taper off. Widespread rain will overspread all of central
Alabama this evening due to the approaching upper low. The rain
will become mixed with snow near the AL/MS state line arnd 02z and
then reach the I-65 corridor arnd 05z. Near the back edge of the
pcpn there may be a brief period of moderate snow that impacts the
northern TAF sites. Cigs will remain in the 1000-1500 feet range
thru 15z, with lcl cigs blo 1000 ft. Skies should clear rapidly
from west to east after 14z with VFR conds at all sites by 18z..
Note: AMD NOT SKED is appended at KBHM due to ASOS power loss until
A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area today.
This will be followed by much colder, drier air which will linger
into at least early next week. A few snow showers may even provide a
brief amount through Monday morning. Drier through Wednesday with
another area of rain Wednesday night into Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 27 41 23 52 33 / 90 0 0 0 0
Anniston 30 42 26 54 37 / 90 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 30 42 28 52 38 / 100 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 28 45 27 52 37 / 100 0 0 0 0
Calera 32 42 29 54 39 / 90 0 0 0 0
Auburn 33 46 30 53 39 / 80 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 33 46 28 57 38 / 80 0 0 0 0
Troy 33 46 29 56 38 / 70 0 0 0 0
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for the following
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
A winter storm will impact the region tonight into Monday with
periods of heavy rain and mainly mountain snow along with gusty
winds in its wake. High pressure will be seasonably cold and dry
weather Tuesday into Wednesday with additional active weather
possibly at times Thursday into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 515 pm EST Sunday: No significant changes to the
forecast. Updated QPF and snow totals for Sunday night/Monday
morning, with not much change warranted. The GFS and HRRR still
appear to be handling the system well, so it`s worth keeping a
close eye on their suggestions.
Hazards will run the gamut from snow to severe to heavy rain
to gradient winds over the next 24 hours. The setup includes
a deepening southern stream low pressure system moving toward
the mid/lower MS River Valley this afternoon. The H5 low should
close off over the lower MS River Valley this evening and then
go slightly negative tilt overnight as it crosses GA and moves
over the Savannah River. The associated surface low is expected
to move up the Interstate 85 corridor across our forecast area
through the overnight hours.
One concern will be the potential for severe weather as a 50 kt
850 jet transits the lower piedmont 06Z to 10Z, with a surface low
moving along or near I-85 and uncovering warm sector instability in
the southeast part of the area. The Day 1 Marginal and Slight risk
areas have been adjusted back to northwest accordingly as we should
uncover some 600+ sbCAPE southeast of I-85. The HWO addresses the
possible severe threat, with an isolated tornado mention now added.
Heavy rainfall may also be a concern, with HREF consensus heavy
rain stripes affecting the I-77 corridor region overnight. However,
low stream levels continue to mitigate any flooding potential
somewhat and will hold off on any FFA at present.
Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into
Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills.
Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow
could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts
have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the
Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border
counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be
a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period.
Gradient flow on the back side of the system will warrant a high
winds mention in the WSW product, but will also post a Wind Advisory
in the SC mountains. The wind advisory could need expanding east, as
the HRRR and RAP are trending windier. Will reconsider this soon.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EST Sunday: A stout 1035 mb high will build into the
region Monday night supporting clear skies and light winds. These
conditions combined with expected snow cover across much of the
mountains from the Monday storm may lead to some of the cold
overnight lows this season with mainly 10s across the mountains and
20s to the east.
A power jet streak will dive into the Mississippi Valley Tuesday and
trigger the deepening of a broad trough near the Ohio Valley by
Wednesday. Associated cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes will likely
drive a mostly moisture starved weak cold front through the region
late Wednesday with little consequence outside some increased cloud
focused across western areas. Weak return flow behind the departing
high pressure zonal downslope flow with allow temperatures to
moderate to near normal Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Sunday: Forecast confidence goes out the window
Thursday into next weekend. General troughiness across the region
should support continued near if not below normal temperatures
through the period. A progressive pattern looks to limit moisture
influx into the region ahead of a possible storm later Thursday or
Friday with somewhat deeper moisture possible with another system
next weekend. Thermal profiles would probably support wintry weather
(with freezing rain possibly mixing in when moisture is shallow as
indicated by some guidance) at times focused across the mountains
and northern tier. High pressure will support sunny, dry, and
seasonably cold conditions in between systems.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Most TAF sites are VFR at present, but
such conditions should not persist for much longer. MVFR CIG
restrictions should build back in within the next hour or two across
the Upstate, with the possibility for some spotty IFR CIGs mixed
in, which have been handled with TEMPOs at KGSP, KGMU, and KAND.
In keeping with the previous round of TAFs, have kept mention of
snow confined to KAVL and KHKY, with KAVL now sporting a prevailing
-SHSN Monday morning, and at KHKY still only a PROB30 for -SHRASN.
Went ahead and dropped snow mention altogether at KCLT, as it
seems increasingly unlikely that anything more than brief, thin
flurries will stretch that far east and south. TSRA has been added
across all sites except KHKY, with KCLT even gaining a PROB30 for
+TSRA, as some of the short-term guidance shows an increasingly
dire-looking couple of hours after daybreak Monday. Otherwise,
winds should begin to turn NNEly in the next few hours, and as
they do so, impressive low-level gradient flow should increase
gust potential the second half of Sunday night and well into the
day Monday. Gusts have been expanded in places, as some guidance
now also depicts gap winds at KGSP and KGMU. After perhaps 18Z,
the influx of very dry air behind this system should allow rapid
improvement in CIGs and VSBYs and much calmer conditions to prevail
through the end of the TAF period.
Outlook: Dry high pressure remains Monday night through Wednesday.
Another cold front may arrive from the west Wednesday night into
Thursday, but with limited moisture and low confidence on any
GA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST
Monday for GAZ010.
NC...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to noon EST
Monday for NCZ033-048>050-052-053.
Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet from 10 PM this
evening to noon EST Monday for NCZ051-058-059-062.
Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet from 10 PM this evening
to noon EST Monday for NCZ051-058-059-062.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST
Monday for NCZ063>065-501>507-509.
SC...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EST Monday for SCZ001>003.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
702 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
Aside from some brief lake effect snowshowers in Berrien and
LaPorte county into this evening, clearing skies and diminishing
winds will bring a cold night with lows in the teens and wind
chills in the single digits.
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
A touch of arctic air has settled into the area with temperatures in
the 20s widespread. Cloud cover has been slowly breaking up east of
US-31 and west of I-69 as subsidence settles in. Much of the short
term forecast is fairly straightforward with skies eventually
clearing out in the east and the coldest night yet for this winter
in store with lows in the teens and even some single digits west.
The only challenge is the finally eastward shift of the N-S lake
effect band that resides near Gary, IN. Over the past hour or 2 it
has progressed a bit more inland with an uptick in returns (30 to
35 DBz) and cameras/obs in the area showing vsbys dropping to a
mile or less and some road impacts. Upstream radar finally showing
a shift eastward which should continue over the next couple of
hours. Was going with lower pops but given trends and signals of
HRRR that nailed that massive increase the past couple of hours,
leaned towards it with narrow band of likely pops hugging the
shoreline and maybe up to an inch locally. Still seems to suggest
a quick demise, but some additional concerns upstream with final
little mesolow that may drop south and could cause a brief
reinvigoration mainly across western Berrien county. Will defer
that to the evening shift.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
A series of northern stream systems will raise havoc on temperatures
through the period, but may lend to little overall precipitation
until maybe late in the period.
A deep 500 mb low off the NW US coast will shear out at the start of
the period, sending its left over energy east across the northern
Plains. A 120 kt jet streak will quickly move in late Tuesday into
Weds and carve out another closed upper low (and associated sfc
low), then race east across the northern Great lakes. No real flow
from the Gulf to aid in precip potential for this across our area
and greatest snow potential will end up across WI into MI with
westerly flow behind it to kick off lake effect snow showers across
our MI counties. Another fast moving northern stream wave will dig
further than the mid week system and eventually develop deep low
pressure that heads up the East coast Thursday into Friday. While
the brunt of the energy with this system should not impact us (aside
from continued lake effect) the wave will help drag a sharply colder
airmass in that will yield highs in the 20s Thur and teens Fri with
lows both nights in the single digits above (and wind chills below
Although warmer temps will return Fri night into Sun, don`t expect
them to stick around as models struggle the next northern stream
wave and a southward shift in the arctic upper low (dropping into
southern James Bay). This is near and just outside the forecast
period so lots of time to sort out.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites, though
there could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings associated with an
light, inland-drifting lake effect band. Models suggest that this
band-presently over portions of Lake/Porter/Jasper/La Porte
counties in Indiana-will drift eastward this evening as it breaks
apart under increasing subsidence and dry air infiltration. It`s
possible we see some flurries at KSBN, but otherwise think the
most likely solution as the band shifts inland is that it will be
the MVFR ceiling heights. It`s questionable if that lower cloud
deck will reach KFWA or not, but did keep BKN030 in from 11z-17z-
ish to account for the potential given most of the guidance has at
least 2-3 hours there. VFR conditions prevail for most of Monday
as light northerly winds switch to the west-southwest.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
932 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
Low pressure will mvoe northeastward along a cold front front to
our south late tonight into Monday. High pressure will return
Tuesday before a weak system passes east Tuesday night. High
pressure will return Wednesday before another system threatens
for Thursday night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9:30 PM UPDATE: Latest surface analysis depicts that the cold front
has pushed through the entire forecast area at this point, with
cooler temps and drier air pushing in behind it. Low pressure is
developing over the GA/AL border and moving in our direction
In the wake of the cold front pushing through, the low pressure will
begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region
starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning.
Latest HRRR and NAM have continued a slight northwest shift. For
this reason, updates are forthcoming to the forecast.
Have decided to add eastern Loudoun County, VA into the Winter Storm
Warning given this trend. QPF amounts have continued to trend
upwards even into southern Baltimore, southern Harford, and Cecil
counties in MD. However, uncertainty is still too high, so won`t be
changing anything there for now headline wise.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Will be continually reviewing latest guidance
this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model
guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern
cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6
inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists
regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to
the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates
across the region. Under this band, the potential does exist
for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that
location down is the hard part.
Storm system looks a little slower so did extend some warnings into
the mid-afternoon, with snow probably out of here by evening rush
hour. There may be enough sun late in the day to warm temps back
above freezing for most, which presents a re-freeze potential.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the region Monday night into
Tuesday night with dry conditions. Radiational cooling over the
snow pack will bring temps to the teens for much of the area
Monday night. Sunshine and lighter winds Tuesday should then
allow temps to rise back above freezing, with some melting, but
re-freeze is likely Tuesday night with lows likely in the 20s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet conditions midweek with unsettled weather returning
Thursday into Friday...
A large upper level low over the Great Lakes region with its
associated trough axis over the Midwest will develop mid-week as
high pressure remains poised offshore. As the low continues to
track northeastward into southern Canada, will drag its
associated cold front eastward across the CWA late Wednesday
into Thursday. With much of the forcing well to our north, and
an overall lack of moisture, don`t anticipate any precip with
the FROPA at this time, perhaps some upslope rain/snow showers
A secondary shortwave trough is expected to then deepen once
again over the Midwest. Guidance indicates that a weaker piece
of energy will merge with the southern stream late Thursday into
Friday. As a result, a surface low will track northeastward on
Friday which would be the next system to affect our area. There
still remains a lot of uncertainty in terms of track, which
would determine precip types.
The greatest threat for wintry precipitation still remains over
the Allegheny Mountains, where there is low confidence for a
moderate impact winter storm. East of there, a mixture of
precipitation types seems possible with precipitation
potentially ending as a period of snow as the low departs to the
NE. Temperatures will plummet behind this system Friday into
Saturday with a 1030mb+ high building overhead and 850 mb temps
-15 to -20C. Friday and Saturday will likely be the coldest days
(highs and lows) since last February for most locations. Wind
chills could become an issue Friday night into Saturday morning
across the higher terrain.
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR thru this evening before conditions drop dramatically
overnight into Monday morning with widespread snow. Expect
long-period of IFR to LIFR conditions, potentially intervals of
VLIFR. Conditions should then improve dramatically late Monday
with VFR expected thru Tuesday.
High pressure returns through the middle of the week, resulting
in persisting VFR conditions, and westerly winds becoming
southerly Wednesday into Thursday.
SCA in place will become a gale tonight thru Monday as cold
front moves through and storm develops to the southeast.
Expecting strongest winds during the day Monday. Winds should
relax slowly thereafter.
High pressure offshore and an approaching cold front late
Wednesday into Thursday will result in southerly channeling. As
a result, SCA conditions are possible, at least for portions of
the waters. Additional marine headlines may be required Thursday
into Friday as another low pressure system crosses the area.
With the cold front having passed through and winds firmly out
of the northwest, anomalies should rapidly drop tonight into
tomorrow. No further coastal flooding issues are expected at
this time over the next few days.
DC...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for MDZ013-
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for VAZ025-026-029-
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Monday for ANZ535-536.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530-531-538-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1017 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
Surface analysis places the frontal boundary across the
Florida panhandle currently. The latest Global and mesoscale
models continue to show the front reaching the northwestern
portions of the CWA after midnight. The HRRR shows the front
reaching the Brevard/Indian River County border around daybreak,
clearing the Treasure Coast by mid to late morning. Scattered
showers and a slight chance of lightning storms are forecast north
and west of I-4 as the front reaches the local area, transitioning
to just scattered showers as the precipitation band weakens as it
moves southward. Highest PoPs (30-40 percent) expected across
Lake and northern Volusia counties, with 20-30 percent from the
I-4 corridor to Melbourne, and 20 percent or less for areas
southward. The main threat in the stronger storms will be wind
gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will remain elevated overnight, veering
from SW to NNW behind the front. Dry air will then filter into the
local area behind the front. Have kept the warmer overnight temperatures
from the previous shift, with overnight lows in the upper 50s
along and north of I-4, with low to mid 60s to the south.
.AVIATION... VFR conditions expected outside of convection through
the TAF period. Current surface analysis shows the front is across
the panhandle. Latest guidance shows the front reaching the
northwestern portions of the CWA after midnight. The HRRR shows
the front reaching the Brevard/Indian River County border around
daybreak, clearing the Treasure Coast by mid to late morning. Have
kept the TEMPO groups for SHRA/TSRA beginning around 8-9Z for
northern terminals from previous shift. Continue to expect to see
SHRA along the weakening precipitation band as the front passes
southward. Brief CIG/VIS reductions possible in heavier showers
and storms. Confidence remains too low to have more than VCSH
across the Treasure Coast terminals due to the expected weakening
of the precipitation band. Winds will veer from the SW to NNW
late tonight behind the front, veering to the NW through the day
Deteriorating boating conditions tonight. Current buoy 41009
observations show seas are 3 ft with a south wind around 18 KT.
Latest surface analysis shows the frontal boundary is across the
panhandle of Florida. SW winds around 15-20 KT tonight will
increase to 20-25 KT behind the front, before veering NNW/N Monday
and remaining around 20 KT. Occasional gusts to gale force will
be possible past 20nm north of Cape Canaveral as the front pushes
through. Increasing showers from north to south are expected as
the front approaches the local waters after midnight, lasting
through Monday morning. A few isolated lightning storms possible
north of the Cape. Wind gusts of 35-40 KT will be possible in the
stronger of the storms late tonight. Seas 3-4 ft will increase to
5-7 ft in the offshore waters by daybreak. Small Craft Advisories
are currently in effect for all the offshore waters and will
expand to all zones later tonight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 56 65 52 71 / 30 10 10 20
MCO 61 66 51 73 / 30 10 0 10
MLB 62 71 53 73 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 63 74 53 75 / 20 20 10 10
LEE 58 65 48 72 / 40 0 0 0
SFB 58 66 50 72 / 30 10 0 10
ORL 60 66 52 73 / 30 10 0 10
FPR 64 74 54 74 / 20 20 10 10
AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Tuesday
for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.