Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/02/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread precipitation is expected to develop overnight tonight and continue through Sunday as a wave of low pressure tracks across southern New England. Developing north winds will result in a mix of precipitation types, with mostly snow across far northern New York, and a wintry mix developing across the remainder of northern New York and most of Vermont. Snow, sleet and ice accumulations will make for slippery and icy travel late tonight through Sunday. Much colder temperatures and low wind chills will follow for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 621 PM EST Saturday...Early evening forecast update made with only some minor tweaks. Introduced some areas of freezing drizzle across northern New York as soundings support the DGZ remaining unsaturated for a few more hours, and surface obs are falling into the 32-33F range. By 10 PM, that should end as snow begins. Additionally, based on latest HRRR soundings, reduced the coverage of sleet in favor of freezing rain/drizzle across central/southern areas. Didn`t really change the overall ice/snow accumulation forecasts which remain on track. Previous Discussion...The forecast remains on track for a mixed bag of wintry precipitation for the second half of the weekend with only very minor changes with this package. Still anticipating 4-7 inches over far northern NY, 2-5 inches for the remainder of NY into northern/central VT, and 2 inches or less across south central VT. Ice accumulations will be less than a tenth of an inch and mainly limited along/south of a Newport VT to Newcomb NY line. This will make for hazardous travel overnight tonight and through much of Sunday, hence the Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning remain in effect. Read on for details. Low pressure currently taking shape in the TN/KY area will continue to trek to the northeast overnight, reaching southern New England early Sunday morning, then shifting east off the coast by Sunday evening. Precipitation will overspread the North Country late tonight. The St Lawrence Valley may see some brief rain early on, but overall expect precipitation to quickly turn over to snow, first over far northern NY, mixed precipitation over much of northern VT, and plain rain in central/southern VT. However, as the low pulls east, colder air will quickly push the mixed precipitation line southward, with all precipitation eventually turning over to snow by late Sunday afternoon. Note that some of the hi-res guidance is showing an area of moderate to briefly heavy precipitation moving eastward across the region during the late morning/early afternoon hours, likely in response to a band of frontogenesis likewise moving eastward behind the departing low. Temperatures behind this feature will fall sharply, and northern areas will likely see early morning highs in the upper teens to mid 20s, while southern areas will warm into the 30s before cooling occurs. Steady snow will transition to mountain snow showers Sunday evening, then eventually come to a end by early Monday as drier air works into the region. Temperatures will be quite chilly with lows expected to be in the single digits in many locations. Northwest winds will remain on the brisk side as well as colder air moving in aloft keeps things mixed, so expect wind chills of -10F to +5F overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 PM EST Saturday...Quiet start to the week with high pressure filtering in behind departing system from Sunday. This high will usher in an arctic airmass which will bring pretty frigid temps to the region Monday with high ranging from the low to mid teens. These temps, coupled with north winds around 10 mph, will make for a pretty brutal day as wind chill values struggle to to get out of single digits throughout the day. Winds will slowly abate by evening which should allow temps to drop fairly quickly during the evening hours as skies remain mostly cloud free. A weak impulse will pass to our north late Monday night which will see winds increase out of the south and incoming clouds towards daybreak Tuesday. This should keep temps from bottoming out completely. Expect overnight lows to dip back into the single digits above and below zero with slight warmer readings in the low teens near Lake Champlain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 338 PM EST Saturday...High pressure anchored across much of the eastern seaboard will remain in control of our weather for the middle part of the week which should provide mostly dry and near normal conditions. Our next system approaches late Wednesday into Thursday as upper level pattern becomes more amplified. Still too early to speak on specifics but it looks like some light snow accumulations are likely with both of these. Still some guidance which indicates the potential for a more significant system for late in the week, but overall consensus on exact track of surface low remains poor. Regardless, upper level pattern is fairly progressive so we will continue to remain in an active pattern through the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions across the region currently. Widespread precipitation moves in after 03z, spreading from northwest to southeast. Precipitation types will vary, with a very brief mix before quickly transitioning to snow at MSS around 02-03Z. Mostly rain south towards RUT, with a band of mixed precipitation types gradually shifting south, resulting in IP or FZRA between 02Z and 06Z across BTV, SLK, PBG, EFK, and MPV along the transition area. After 06Z, most should flip to snow, but MPV and RUT will likely make the transition to snow closer to 12Z-15Z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for VTZ001>012- 016>019. Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for VTZ007-008-010- 012. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ028>030- 034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings/Lahiff NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...LaRocca LONG TERM...LaRocca AVIATION...Hastings/Verasamy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
938 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 Our updated forecast seems to be doing well. We have a large baroclinic leaf cloud from Iowa, across Wisconsin to norther Lower and Upper Michigan at 9:30 pm. The snow band is on the south edge of that cloud band (typical actually). This band will continue to progress east over the next few hours. The air has become moist enough that the norther part of our Advisory area is now getting snow too. Meanwhile the heaviest snowfall seems to be along I-96 which fits how the satellite image loops would suggest it should be. I have adjusted my max snowfall axis northward to near I-96 as a result. This still looks like a 3 to 5 inch snowfall, isolated 6 inch amounts are still possible. The snow should come to an end around 4-5 am in western sections and around 7 to 9 am over eastern sections. At this point I see no reason to adjust our Winter Weather Advisory in any way. UPDATE Issued at 711 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 I have made some minor adjustments to our forecast into Sunday. First I changed the snow showers to snow in our grids since this looks more like a stratiform type event rather than a convective one. I also increased snowfall amounts by about an inch between I-94 and I-96 and this was based on both the trend in the HRRR which for 6 convective hours increased the QPF through 7 am at GRR. Also the ECMWF qpf has increase over the past 3 runs and the GFS has been very consistent with the .3 to .4 in that same area. Beyond that GRR has already had about 2 inches from the event and we have at least another 8 hour so snow to fall yet. So this gives us 3 to 5 inches, which is now what is in our forecast for this event. I increased the pop near the lake shore for Sunday during the day time hours. It still looks good for the dominant band snow over Lake Michigan, in north flow, to come on shore during the late afternoon on Sunday. The band will quickly weaken as it moves on shore so I do not believe more than an inch or so will fall in any one place from that. That will only be very close to the lake shore since the snow band will weaken quickly. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 -Accumulating snow potential through the night We are keeping the current headlines the same with very similar snow amounts. An organizing band of heavier snow upstream across IA into northern IL is forecast to build into the CWA through the remainder of the afternoon and persist across parts of the CWA for the evening. Driving this band of snow was organized 850 mb convergence topped by upper level divergence. FGEN was noted in between around the DGZ. As a result we will feature snow...heavy at times for the advisory area. Highest amounts are progged to occur along and south of Interstate 96. Drier air was advecting down from the north...which will likely impact the snow amounts for northern zones. We will still feature a 1 to 3 inch amount for the northern advisory group including Mt Pleasant and Big Rapids. Further south 3 to 6 inches is what we will maintain. Impacts to anyone traveling in the headline area later this afternoon and more so tonight should be be considerable given the temperatures dropping into the teens by later tonight and winds blowing from the north northeast. One location to monitor is Mason County for a possible upgrade to an advisory. The band of snow that forms to their west over Lake MI is progged to move onshore around daybreak Sunday. However it is expected to diminish as it does. Gusty winds are expected at that time. Currently we are projecting the band of snow to keep moving inland instead of stalling out. As a result we are holding off on a headline given the forecast limited duration of the snow. - Lake effect snow risk for mid week Strengthening clipper system drops into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday which will be followed by a surge of arctic air for Thursday. Bufkit overviews for the BIV to LWA sites are showing deep moisture up through 15k ft and a saturated DGZ containing some lift Wednesday into Wednesday night. The flow will be southwest to west. We will also be mixing into some gusty winds then. The flow veers to northwest Thursday with continued cold air advection. As a result...growing confidence for winter impacts Wednesday into possibly Friday exists. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 711 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 I expect widespread IFR and locally LIFR in snow, which will be locally heavy at times for all but MKG between now and 06z or so. The snow should come to an end in the 10z to 12z time frame. I put snow showers in the MKG TAF in the late afternoon as that band moves on shore. I expect most of our TAF sites will become VFR by midday on Sunday. It may take longer for our I-69 TAF sites since there are closer to the developing surface wave on the front. It may take longer to clear there. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 A tight pressure gradient and cold air advection on the north side of the low pressure system tracking through the region will keep hazardous conditions over the nearshore zones through Sunday. Based on Bufkit overviews from the GFS we may see a few gale gusts but prevailing conditions support winds gusting mostly in the 20 to 30 knot range. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...WDM MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 925 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2022 With the bulk of the heavier precipitation to our east, have gone ahead and dropped the flood watch slightly early. Any new light rainfall should not worsen or result in new flooding issues. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 324 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 In the near term, strong to severe convection continues to push through our far eastern and southeastern counties. Tornado watch remains in effect, however, we will be dropping the watch by 400 PM EST as the line will be east of our forecast area and no further severe convection is expected. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low-mid 50s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky and temperatures in the former warm sector will fall from the mid-upper 60s down into the mid 50s by the evening. For this evening and into the overnight period, rain showers with moderate rain will continue across the area. We may see a little break in the action early this evening, before the final slug of precipitation pushes through the region. Rainfall rates are not too heavy out across the west with rates of about 0.10-0.20/hr. We expect the precipitation to diminish from west to east later tonight with colder air working in from the northwest late. A gradient of lows is expected tonight with lows by dawn Sunday morning dropping to the lower 30s across our far northwest sections. In the I-65 corridor temps should bottom out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s with our far eastern and southeastern sections remaining in the upper 40s. For Sunday, cold advection will continue in earnest across the region. So highs on day for Sunday will likely occur at midnight tonight with temps steadily dropping throughout the day. Temperatures by early afternoon will range from the lower-mid 30s in areas west of I-65 with areas east of I-65 remaining in the upper 30s. By late afternoon most locations should see temperatures making a run for the freezing mark. In the afternoon, a sharpening upper trough axis is forecast to approach the region from the west. This feature will likely result in cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary to our south and may result in light wintry precipitation overspreading portions of the region Sunday afternoon. Despite it being about 24 hours out, there remains quite a spread in the model solutions. The global models keep much of the light precipitation to our south, while the higher resolution models such as the NAM are a little further north. The HRRR is the most aggressive and farthest north with its precipitation shield. For now, we plan on leaning to a general blend of the global guidance along with taking into account the higher resolution guidance. This will result in a forecast of light snow showers across central and southern KY tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations may be rather lacking during the daylight hours due to wet/warm ground and expected surface temps being above freezing. A few tenths of snow accumulation will be possible. However, if a trend further north comes to fruition (such as the HRRR), we could end up with a little more snow. Hopefully, we`ll see a bit more convergence within the model guidance with tonight`s 00Z and 06Z runs. .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 By Sunday evening, the upper level shortwave trough will be pivoting through the Midwest, and will develop a low/mid level closed low pressure over the Tennessee Valley. Some wrap around precip on the northern periphery of the low will bring some isolated to scattered light rain to the southeastern portion of the CWA. As cold air advection enters into the region, there is a possibility that some of the lingering precip could become a wintry mix by late Sunday night. Our window of opportunity appears to be rather narrow, and with limited moisture available in the DGZ, not too confident on seeing much impactful wx across our south-central and Lake Cumberland counties. With the much colder air arriving by the early morning hours on Monday, we`ll likely see morning low temps in the low 20s across the region. By sunrise Monday, the aforementioned low will be swiftly carrying off to the east, and our upper level flow will become more zonal. Low level ridging looks to build from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley by Monday morning, resulting in a broad area of high pressure extending across much of the eastern half of the US. The center of the sfc high looks to track somewhere through the Ohio Valley by Monday afternoon or evening, which will result in a change in our sfc winds. We remain cool on Monday with temps only expected to be in the 30s thanks to NW flow. However, we slightly warm up for Tuesday as we become engulfed by the southerly return flow of the sfc high that will shifting off to our east. Current forecast calls for temps in the 40s, though some of our southern counties could touch 50. Our weather could become more active as we get into the latter half of next week. First, an upper trough will develop a closed low over the Northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This low will trail an attendant cold front through our region by Wednesday afternoon/evening, though we look to remain mostly dry as we should lack any substantial moisture. Most noticeable feature of FROPA will be our wind change from warm southwesterly to cold northwesterly. We remain in a general troughing regime for Thursday, with another shortwave developing a lee cyclone off the Rockies. Models generally agree on having this low level low track across the ArkLaTex region before tracking across the Tennessee Valley. With much colder air in place, there is the possibility of seeing some snow Thursday and into Friday morning. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 720 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 IMPACTS: -MVFR/IFR conditions across the region due to rainfall/fog overnight -Rain diminishes this evening but low cigs expected to persist DISCUSSION: Wave of surface low pressure is currently moving northeast through the Ohio River Valley. Low clouds and showers southeast of the low will cover the area overnight. The cold front associated with the low will move through overnight. This will help rain to diminish with low cigs persisting. Enough cold air works in Sunday to change some of the showers over to snow. CONFIDENCE: Medium on all elements && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...DM Short Term...MJ Long Term....CJP Aviation...KF
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
903 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 We continue a close watch on observational trends including gauging impacts through reports, traffic maps, and webcams. Snow continues across a lot of the area, mainly of a light and occasionally heavier rate, with highest impacts being experienced in open areas of north central Illinois, across the northern Chicago metro, and at times in far northwest Indiana. Have lowered forecast snowfall amounts a smidge and eased impact wording in a few locations -- namely southwest metro and areas where heavier rates have eased and will end altogether shortly (western locations). Some uncertainty with how the lake enhancement/effect will work out, but have seen some of this already at work in far southeast Wisconsin on terminal doppler weather radar data, and rates and amounts are coming in higher in these locations. So still would expect some amounts exceeding 7 inches in parts of Lake and northern Cook. The now strung out synoptic shield of snow is draped over the northern half of the forecast area this mid-evening. Frontogenesis (f-gen) within the 700-750 mb layer from eastern Iowa through far northern Illinois and into southeast Wisconsin has remained steadfast, producing regular banded structures of snow. As temperatures have fell (upper teens across north central Illinois now), the snow ratios have been regularly higher and it is estimated from reports that a 4 inch area of snow has occurred so far from Lee and Ogle counties east-northeastward to Lake and parts of northern Cook (recent 4.3 inch report from Palatine). Webcams in north central Illinois and road conditions have been quite poor, with I-39 webcams only recently having shown improvement as rates have started to ease. With the north winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph, east-west oriented roads that are not regularly plowed likely have dangerous travel conditions. North central Illinois will gradually see snow taper, though the second wave (or main trough) will keep at least regular light snow continuing in parts of that area into overnight. That may require extending the Warning for there for a few more hours into the overnight. Further east into the metro, conditions have mainly been worse north under the aforementioned banding. Also some likely lake enhancement into Lake County is aiding in regular heavier rates. Warning-like impacts generally continue in that area and the message is generally good. The central and southern metro have had less snowfall so far than expected, and in/near downtown Chicago saw little accumulation on traveled roads through 6 pm due to good treatment and heavier rates/better ratios being limited in duration. It has been well agreed upon by the RAP and NAM that f-gen will re-evolve a little southeastward over the southern Chicago metro for a few hours coming up (and radar is hinting at that taking shape). With temperatures having dropped several degrees from earlier, this should provide pavement accumulation. Due to the low amounts so far in Will and into Kendall, felt comfortable that conditions are and will continue to stay more Advisory level. For Lake and Cook Counties, some assistance from the lake -- albeit with somewhat marginal temperature profiles for larger flakes -- should again see amounts and impacts boosted from inland areas. There have already been some reports of markedly low visibility and shallow blowing snow from Lake County where winds are gusting over 30 mp. For northwest Indiana, conditions have been variable, but at times really poor on even the interstates in Lake and Porter Counties. This is a challenging area as they likely will have quite varying conditions. They are weeing low 30s temperatures advected from the lake with the north winds, but should also get into some of the f-gen forcing into early overnight, and then some lake effect very late tonight into Sunday morning. So still felt alright with the Warning message for this area, keeping in mind while high uncertainty on amounts, a little more so with overall impacts (and some already seen). Further south, patchy freezing drizzle has been noted in reports from Bloomington up to Pontiac. Humidity profiles are marginal in the ice nucleation layer and will stay that way for the next several hours. So some occasional snow and freezing drizzle will likely continue. The going Advisory looks fine. Hope to gather some snowfall reports from this far south before 10 P.M. MTF && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 Through Sunday night... Travel conditions continue to deteriorate across the forecast area this afternoon with snow filling in across about the northwestern 3/4ths of the CWA. Surface temperatures in the 34-37 degree range south of a Chatsworth to Kouts line are affording sufficient melting energy to to hold things as rain with all snow to the north. Expect things will eventually flip to all snow for essentially all of our forecast area through the rest of the afternoon. We`ve recently noted visibilities more uniformly inching down into the 1/2 to 3/4 mile range over much of the northwestern portions of the forecast area as snow quality/SLRs have come up. Very near term guidance trends (HRRR/RAP) haven`t been the greatest, so it`s been a little challenging to refine trends into the early evening here. Initially, was looking to knock snow amounts down closer to the Wisconsin state line, but we`re now noting a pretty nice looking f-gen band that`s been getting going, arcing from near Rockford southwest towards Des Moines and southwest Iowa which is quite a bit farther north than earlier guidance had indicated. In a similar vein, the northward surging dryslot is evident into northern Missouri at this time which also muddles trends for our southern locales later this evening. In a nutshell, storm total snowfall amounts near the lake haven`t changed materially with 5 to up to 9 inches (wherever our lake- enhancement sets up through the evening with perhaps some signs of lake-enhancement showing up on recent TORD/TMDW scans), but have trended downwards along south of I-80 where low-quality snow and the incoming dryslot are expected to cut into overall amounts. Forecast soundings south of I-80 later this evening show us losing the better saturation above 600 mb after about 8-9 PM, leaving a saturated lower troposphere that`s all warmer than about -8 C. This suggests precipitation type may begin to transition to light snow and patchy freezing drizzle, further cutting down on totals. With this in mind, have elected to convert the Winter Storm Warning for Grundy and Southern Will counties to an advisory, but will leave La Salle and those northward within the warning with amounts still expected in the 4 to 7 inch range with the top-end amounts probably being a little more sparse with the potential for blowing snow still a concern in open areas as gusts occasionally to 30 mph or so. Today`s guidance suggests that deformation precip may come to an end mid-late evening with some potential for additional bursts of mainly light snow to re-develop after midnight with the arrival of another embedded wave and attendant jet streak. Either way, the most widespread impacts are still expected to ease by midnight across the area, except near the lake where lake-enhancement is expected to persist through the night. We`re still thinking the guidance that`s squeezing out 1+" of QPF near the lake is a bit overdone given the lack of better/deeper saturation that reaches just into the base of the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Another area of uncertainty is the potential for a lake effect band to develop late tonight and persist into Sunday morning as the flow begins to shift more into northwest Indiana. Lake parameters aren`t super eye-popping with lake-induced ELs hanging out under 6-7 kft so the HRRRs widespread double digit totals still seem a bit too aggressive. We have delayed the end time of PoPs into Lake and Porter Counties for this potential, however, although won`t be making any formal changes to the end time of the Winter Storm Warning (6 AM) due to very low confidence in this feature`s timing and placement. The main story headed into Sunday night will be the cold temperatures, with guidance suggesting clear skies, calming winds, and some snowpack in place yielding a potential for temperatures to tank into the single digits below zero across interior parts of northern/northwest Illinois. Winds look light enough to preclude Wind Chill headlines at this time, but do look to fall to around 15 below in spots. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 Monday through Saturday... Primary forecast concern is another period for cold temperatures for the end of the week. Additional concerns include precip chances Wednesday and Thursday and again next weekend. High pressure will moving east of the area by Monday evening with southerly flow returning to the area and a brief moderation for temps. Highs Monday still chilly in the 20s with teens for Tuesday morning but highs on Tuesday are expected to reach back into the lower/mid 30s though southerly winds may be gusting into the 25-30 mph range. Next storm system will move across WI Wednesday morning and fairly good agreement from this distance. Best chance for some light snow looks to be mainly across northern IL and possibly into northwest IN and mainly behind a cold front that will move across the area Wednesday morning. Blended pops are mainly dry during this time and its possible precip will remain north of the area, thus didn`t add any pops but some may be needed with later forecasts. Wednesday is also looking windy behind the cold front. Westerly winds may gust into the 35 mph range for much of Wednesday. Temps look to fall during the day with highs likely in the morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty from Wednesday night through Friday as the GFS maintains a trough across the area into Thursday with potential cloud cover, flurries or snow showers. The ECMWF is more progressive with the first system and develops another wave moving across the central Plains far more than the GFS. While the trend will be much colder, a bit too early for the specifics. Current lows for Thursday morning are generally in the single digits. Temps could be warmer with a GFS solution. Could be a better chance for some light snow Thursday, especially across the southern cwa with a ECMWF solution. Agreement returns by Friday as high pressure settles across the region leading to a likely very cold Friday morning with blended temps already below zero for most of the cwa. Temps try to moderate again going into Saturday with another chance of precipitation. cms && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Aviation weather challenges for the 00Z TAFs: * IFR to MVFR conditions throughout the forecast area tonight * Gusty northerly winds tonight * Light to moderate snow tonight Most of the CWA is experiencing light to moderate snow with MVFR to IFR ceilings, while some sites have visibilities below 1 mile in snow/fog/freezing fog. Winds have been gusty from the north- northeast with gust up to around 30 kt. Snow and associated lower ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue this evening, with a slight improvement of visibilities and ceilings, although only improving up to low MVFR, while visibilities will hover near 2 miles. Winds will weaken somewhat overnight, with gusts in the upper 20s slowly working down to teens. Winds will also back west of north to around 350 degrees after midnight. Snow fall will continue to decrease overnight, becoming more of an off and on snow fall scenario early Sunday morning. Ceilings will lift up to MVFR, while visibilities will be in the IFR range. Snow will end for western locations around 08Z, but will linger at sites near the lake until around 10-11Z, and even longer in northwest Indiana. Winds will continue to back and decrease in strength, becoming northwesterly at around 10 kt by midday. With the exception of northwest Indiana, ceilings should become VFR by midday, and scatter out Sunday afternoon. BKL && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 Northeast gale force winds will continue through this evening and begin to diminish early Sunday morning across far southern Lake Michigan. Winds will slowly turn more northerly early Sunday morning and then are expected to shift northwest by daybreak for the Illinois nearshore waters and then across the Indiana nearshore waters later Sunday morning. As temperatures continue to drop through the 20s Sunday morning, light freezing spray will be possible. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Winter Storm Warning...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ019 until midnight Sunday. Winter Storm Warning...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105 until 6 AM Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory...ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ106- ILZ107-ILZ108 until 3 AM Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory...ILZ033-ILZ039 until 6 AM Sunday. IN...Winter Storm Warning...INZ001-INZ002 until 6 AM Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory...INZ010-INZ011 until 6 AM Sunday. LM...Gale Warning...nearshore waters until midnight Sunday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: