Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/02/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
Widespread precipitation is expected to develop overnight tonight
and continue through Sunday as a wave of low pressure tracks across
southern New England. Developing north winds will result in a mix of
precipitation types, with mostly snow across far northern New York,
and a wintry mix developing across the remainder of northern New
York and most of Vermont. Snow, sleet and ice accumulations will
make for slippery and icy travel late tonight through Sunday. Much
colder temperatures and low wind chills will follow for early next
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 621 PM EST Saturday...Early evening forecast update made
with only some minor tweaks. Introduced some areas of freezing
drizzle across northern New York as soundings support the DGZ
remaining unsaturated for a few more hours, and surface obs are
falling into the 32-33F range. By 10 PM, that should end as snow
begins. Additionally, based on latest HRRR soundings, reduced
the coverage of sleet in favor of freezing rain/drizzle across
central/southern areas. Didn`t really change the overall
ice/snow accumulation forecasts which remain on track.
Previous Discussion...The forecast remains on track for a mixed
bag of wintry precipitation for the second half of the weekend
with only very minor changes with this package. Still
anticipating 4-7 inches over far northern NY, 2-5 inches for the
remainder of NY into northern/central VT, and 2 inches or less
across south central VT. Ice accumulations will be less than a
tenth of an inch and mainly limited along/south of a Newport VT
to Newcomb NY line. This will make for hazardous travel
overnight tonight and through much of Sunday, hence the Winter
Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning remain in effect.
Read on for details.
Low pressure currently taking shape in the TN/KY area will continue
to trek to the northeast overnight, reaching southern New England
early Sunday morning, then shifting east off the coast by Sunday
evening. Precipitation will overspread the North Country late
tonight. The St Lawrence Valley may see some brief rain early on,
but overall expect precipitation to quickly turn over to snow, first
over far northern NY, mixed precipitation over much of northern VT,
and plain rain in central/southern VT. However, as the low pulls
east, colder air will quickly push the mixed precipitation line
southward, with all precipitation eventually turning over to snow by
late Sunday afternoon. Note that some of the hi-res guidance is
showing an area of moderate to briefly heavy precipitation moving
eastward across the region during the late morning/early afternoon
hours, likely in response to a band of frontogenesis likewise moving
eastward behind the departing low. Temperatures behind this feature
will fall sharply, and northern areas will likely see early morning
highs in the upper teens to mid 20s, while southern areas will warm
into the 30s before cooling occurs. Steady snow will transition to
mountain snow showers Sunday evening, then eventually come to a end
by early Monday as drier air works into the region. Temperatures
will be quite chilly with lows expected to be in the single digits
in many locations. Northwest winds will remain on the brisk side as
well as colder air moving in aloft keeps things mixed, so expect
wind chills of -10F to +5F overnight.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EST Saturday...Quiet start to the week with high
pressure filtering in behind departing system from Sunday. This high
will usher in an arctic airmass which will bring pretty frigid temps
to the region Monday with high ranging from the low to mid teens.
These temps, coupled with north winds around 10 mph, will make for a
pretty brutal day as wind chill values struggle to to get out of
single digits throughout the day. Winds will slowly abate by evening
which should allow temps to drop fairly quickly during the evening
hours as skies remain mostly cloud free. A weak impulse will pass to
our north late Monday night which will see winds increase out of the
south and incoming clouds towards daybreak Tuesday. This should keep
temps from bottoming out completely. Expect overnight lows to dip
back into the single digits above and below zero with slight warmer
readings in the low teens near Lake Champlain.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 338 PM EST Saturday...High pressure anchored across much of the
eastern seaboard will remain in control of our weather for the
middle part of the week which should provide mostly dry and near
normal conditions. Our next system approaches late Wednesday into
Thursday as upper level pattern becomes more amplified. Still too
early to speak on specifics but it looks like some light snow
accumulations are likely with both of these. Still some guidance
which indicates the potential for a more significant system for late
in the week, but overall consensus on exact track of surface low
remains poor. Regardless, upper level pattern is fairly progressive
so we will continue to remain in an active pattern through the long
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions across the region
currently. Widespread precipitation moves in after 03z,
spreading from northwest to southeast. Precipitation types will
vary, with a very brief mix before quickly transitioning to snow
at MSS around 02-03Z. Mostly rain south towards RUT, with a
band of mixed precipitation types gradually shifting south,
resulting in IP or FZRA between 02Z and 06Z across BTV, SLK,
PBG, EFK, and MPV along the transition area. After 06Z, most
should flip to snow, but MPV and RUT will likely make the
transition to snow closer to 12Z-15Z Sunday.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for VTZ001>012-
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for VTZ007-008-010-
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ028>030-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
938 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
Issued at 938 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
Our updated forecast seems to be doing well. We have a large
baroclinic leaf cloud from Iowa, across Wisconsin to norther
Lower and Upper Michigan at 9:30 pm. The snow band is on the south
edge of that cloud band (typical actually). This band will
continue to progress east over the next few hours. The air has
become moist enough that the norther part of our Advisory area is
now getting snow too. Meanwhile the heaviest snowfall seems to be
along I-96 which fits how the satellite image loops would suggest
it should be. I have adjusted my max snowfall axis northward to
near I-96 as a result. This still looks like a 3 to 5 inch
snowfall, isolated 6 inch amounts are still possible.
The snow should come to an end around 4-5 am in western sections
and around 7 to 9 am over eastern sections. At this point I see no
reason to adjust our Winter Weather Advisory in any way.
UPDATE Issued at 711 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
I have made some minor adjustments to our forecast into Sunday.
First I changed the snow showers to snow in our grids since this
looks more like a stratiform type event rather than a convective
one. I also increased snowfall amounts by about an inch between
I-94 and I-96 and this was based on both the trend in the HRRR
which for 6 convective hours increased the QPF through 7 am at
GRR. Also the ECMWF qpf has increase over the past 3 runs and the
GFS has been very consistent with the .3 to .4 in that same area.
Beyond that GRR has already had about 2 inches from the event and
we have at least another 8 hour so snow to fall yet. So this
gives us 3 to 5 inches, which is now what is in our forecast for
I increased the pop near the lake shore for Sunday during the day
time hours. It still looks good for the dominant band snow
over Lake Michigan, in north flow, to come on shore during the
late afternoon on Sunday. The band will quickly weaken as it moves
on shore so I do not believe more than an inch or so will fall in
any one place from that. That will only be very close to the lake
shore since the snow band will weaken quickly.
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
-Accumulating snow potential through the night
We are keeping the current headlines the same with very similar
An organizing band of heavier snow upstream across IA into
northern IL is forecast to build into the CWA through the
remainder of the afternoon and persist across parts of the CWA for
the evening. Driving this band of snow was organized 850 mb
convergence topped by upper level divergence. FGEN was noted in
between around the DGZ. As a result we will feature snow...heavy
at times for the advisory area. Highest amounts are progged to
occur along and south of Interstate 96. Drier air was advecting
down from the north...which will likely impact the snow amounts
for northern zones. We will still feature a 1 to 3 inch amount for
the northern advisory group including Mt Pleasant and Big Rapids.
Further south 3 to 6 inches is what we will maintain. Impacts to
anyone traveling in the headline area later this afternoon and
more so tonight should be be considerable given the temperatures
dropping into the teens by later tonight and winds blowing from
the north northeast.
One location to monitor is Mason County for a possible upgrade to an
advisory. The band of snow that forms to their west over Lake MI is
progged to move onshore around daybreak Sunday. However it is
expected to diminish as it does. Gusty winds are expected at that
time. Currently we are projecting the band of snow to keep moving
inland instead of stalling out. As a result we are holding off on
a headline given the forecast limited duration of the snow.
- Lake effect snow risk for mid week
Strengthening clipper system drops into the Great Lakes Region
Wednesday which will be followed by a surge of arctic air for
Thursday. Bufkit overviews for the BIV to LWA sites are showing
deep moisture up through 15k ft and a saturated DGZ containing
some lift Wednesday into Wednesday night. The flow will be
southwest to west. We will also be mixing into some gusty winds
then. The flow veers to northwest Thursday with continued cold air
advection. As a result...growing confidence for winter impacts
Wednesday into possibly Friday exists.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 711 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
I expect widespread IFR and locally LIFR in snow, which will be
locally heavy at times for all but MKG between now and 06z or so.
The snow should come to an end in the 10z to 12z time frame. I put
snow showers in the MKG TAF in the late afternoon as that band
moves on shore.
I expect most of our TAF sites will become VFR by midday on
Sunday. It may take longer for our I-69 TAF sites since there are
closer to the developing surface wave on the front. It may take
longer to clear there.
Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
A tight pressure gradient and cold air advection on the north side
of the low pressure system tracking through the region will keep
hazardous conditions over the nearshore zones through Sunday.
Based on Bufkit overviews from the GFS we may see a few gale
gusts but prevailing conditions support winds gusting mostly in
the 20 to 30 knot range.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ043>046-
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
927 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
Issued at 925 PM EST Sun Jan 1 2022
With the bulk of the heavier precipitation to our east, have gone
ahead and dropped the flood watch slightly early. Any new
light rainfall should not worsen or result in new flooding issues.
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
In the near term, strong to severe convection continues to push
through our far eastern and southeastern counties. Tornado watch
remains in effect, however, we will be dropping the watch by 400 PM
EST as the line will be east of our forecast area and no further
severe convection is expected. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the forecast area this
afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low-mid 50s across
southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky and temperatures
in the former warm sector will fall from the mid-upper 60s down into
the mid 50s by the evening.
For this evening and into the overnight period, rain showers with
moderate rain will continue across the area. We may see a little
break in the action early this evening, before the final slug of
precipitation pushes through the region. Rainfall rates are not too
heavy out across the west with rates of about 0.10-0.20/hr. We
expect the precipitation to diminish from west to east later tonight
with colder air working in from the northwest late. A gradient of
lows is expected tonight with lows by dawn Sunday morning dropping
to the lower 30s across our far northwest sections. In the I-65
corridor temps should bottom out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s
with our far eastern and southeastern sections remaining in the
For Sunday, cold advection will continue in earnest across the
region. So highs on day for Sunday will likely occur at midnight
tonight with temps steadily dropping throughout the day.
Temperatures by early afternoon will range from the lower-mid 30s in
areas west of I-65 with areas east of I-65 remaining in the upper
30s. By late afternoon most locations should see temperatures
making a run for the freezing mark.
In the afternoon, a sharpening upper trough axis is forecast to
approach the region from the west. This feature will likely result
in cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary to our south and may
result in light wintry precipitation overspreading portions of the
region Sunday afternoon. Despite it being about 24 hours out, there
remains quite a spread in the model solutions. The global models
keep much of the light precipitation to our south, while the higher
resolution models such as the NAM are a little further north. The
HRRR is the most aggressive and farthest north with its precipitation
shield. For now, we plan on leaning to a general blend of the global
guidance along with taking into account the higher resolution
guidance. This will result in a forecast of light snow showers
across central and southern KY tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations
may be rather lacking during the daylight hours due to wet/warm
ground and expected surface temps being above freezing. A few
tenths of snow accumulation will be possible. However, if a trend
further north comes to fruition (such as the HRRR), we could end up
with a little more snow. Hopefully, we`ll see a bit more
convergence within the model guidance with tonight`s 00Z and 06Z
.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
By Sunday evening, the upper level shortwave trough will be pivoting
through the Midwest, and will develop a low/mid level closed low
pressure over the Tennessee Valley. Some wrap around precip on the
northern periphery of the low will bring some isolated to scattered
light rain to the southeastern portion of the CWA. As cold air
advection enters into the region, there is a possibility that some
of the lingering precip could become a wintry mix by late Sunday
night. Our window of opportunity appears to be rather narrow, and
with limited moisture available in the DGZ, not too confident on
seeing much impactful wx across our south-central and Lake
Cumberland counties. With the much colder air arriving by the early
morning hours on Monday, we`ll likely see morning low temps in the
low 20s across the region.
By sunrise Monday, the aforementioned low will be swiftly carrying
off to the east, and our upper level flow will become more zonal.
Low level ridging looks to build from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley
by Monday morning, resulting in a broad area of high pressure
extending across much of the eastern half of the US. The center of
the sfc high looks to track somewhere through the Ohio Valley by
Monday afternoon or evening, which will result in a change in our
sfc winds. We remain cool on Monday with temps only expected to be
in the 30s thanks to NW flow. However, we slightly warm up for
Tuesday as we become engulfed by the southerly return flow of the
sfc high that will shifting off to our east. Current forecast calls
for temps in the 40s, though some of our southern counties could
Our weather could become more active as we get into the latter half
of next week. First, an upper trough will develop a closed low over
the Northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This low will
trail an attendant cold front through our region by Wednesday
afternoon/evening, though we look to remain mostly dry as we should
lack any substantial moisture. Most noticeable feature of FROPA will
be our wind change from warm southwesterly to cold northwesterly. We
remain in a general troughing regime for Thursday, with another
shortwave developing a lee cyclone off the Rockies. Models generally
agree on having this low level low track across the ArkLaTex region
before tracking across the Tennessee Valley. With much colder air in
place, there is the possibility of seeing some snow Thursday and
into Friday morning.
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 720 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022
-MVFR/IFR conditions across the region due to rainfall/fog
-Rain diminishes this evening but low cigs expected to persist
Wave of surface low pressure is currently moving northeast through
the Ohio River Valley. Low clouds and showers southeast of the low
will cover the area overnight. The cold front associated with the
low will move through overnight. This will help rain to diminish
with low cigs persisting. Enough cold air works in Sunday to
change some of the showers over to snow.
Medium on all elements
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
903 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022
We continue a close watch on observational trends including
gauging impacts through reports, traffic maps, and webcams. Snow
continues across a lot of the area, mainly of a light and
occasionally heavier rate, with highest impacts being
experienced in open areas of north central Illinois, across the
northern Chicago metro, and at times in far northwest Indiana.
Have lowered forecast snowfall amounts a smidge and eased impact
wording in a few locations -- namely southwest metro and areas
where heavier rates have eased and will end altogether shortly
(western locations). Some uncertainty with how the lake
enhancement/effect will work out, but have seen some of this
already at work in far southeast Wisconsin on terminal doppler
weather radar data, and rates and amounts are coming in higher in
these locations. So still would expect some amounts exceeding 7
inches in parts of Lake and northern Cook.
The now strung out synoptic shield of snow is draped over the
northern half of the forecast area this mid-evening. Frontogenesis
(f-gen) within the 700-750 mb layer from eastern Iowa through far
northern Illinois and into southeast Wisconsin has remained
steadfast, producing regular banded structures of snow. As
temperatures have fell (upper teens across north central Illinois
now), the snow ratios have been regularly higher and it is
estimated from reports that a 4 inch area of snow has occurred so
far from Lee and Ogle counties east-northeastward to Lake and
parts of northern Cook (recent 4.3 inch report from Palatine).
Webcams in north central Illinois and road conditions have been
quite poor, with I-39 webcams only recently having shown
improvement as rates have started to ease. With the north winds
gusting to 20 to 25 mph, east-west oriented roads that are not
regularly plowed likely have dangerous travel conditions. North
central Illinois will gradually see snow taper, though the second
wave (or main trough) will keep at least regular light snow
continuing in parts of that area into overnight. That may require
extending the Warning for there for a few more hours into the
Further east into the metro, conditions have mainly been worse
north under the aforementioned banding. Also some likely lake
enhancement into Lake County is aiding in regular heavier rates.
Warning-like impacts generally continue in that area and the
message is generally good. The central and southern metro have had
less snowfall so far than expected, and in/near downtown Chicago
saw little accumulation on traveled roads through 6 pm due to good
treatment and heavier rates/better ratios being limited in
duration. It has been well agreed upon by the RAP and NAM that
f-gen will re-evolve a little southeastward over the southern
Chicago metro for a few hours coming up (and radar is hinting at
that taking shape). With temperatures having dropped several
degrees from earlier, this should provide pavement accumulation.
Due to the low amounts so far in Will and into Kendall, felt
comfortable that conditions are and will continue to stay more
Advisory level. For Lake and Cook Counties, some assistance from
the lake -- albeit with somewhat marginal temperature profiles for
larger flakes -- should again see amounts and impacts boosted from
inland areas. There have already been some reports of markedly
low visibility and shallow blowing snow from Lake County where
winds are gusting over 30 mp.
For northwest Indiana, conditions have been variable, but at times
really poor on even the interstates in Lake and Porter Counties.
This is a challenging area as they likely will have quite varying
conditions. They are weeing low 30s temperatures advected from
the lake with the north winds, but should also get into some of
the f-gen forcing into early overnight, and then some lake effect
very late tonight into Sunday morning. So still felt alright with
the Warning message for this area, keeping in mind while high
uncertainty on amounts, a little more so with overall impacts (and
some already seen).
Further south, patchy freezing drizzle has been noted in reports
from Bloomington up to Pontiac. Humidity profiles are marginal in
the ice nucleation layer and will stay that way for the next
several hours. So some occasional snow and freezing drizzle will
likely continue. The going Advisory looks fine. Hope to gather
some snowfall reports from this far south before 10 P.M.
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022
Through Sunday night...
Travel conditions continue to deteriorate across the forecast area
this afternoon with snow filling in across about the northwestern
3/4ths of the CWA. Surface temperatures in the 34-37 degree range
south of a Chatsworth to Kouts line are affording sufficient
melting energy to to hold things as rain with all snow to the
north. Expect things will eventually flip to all snow for
essentially all of our forecast area through the rest of the
We`ve recently noted visibilities more uniformly inching down into
the 1/2 to 3/4 mile range over much of the northwestern portions
of the forecast area as snow quality/SLRs have come up. Very near
term guidance trends (HRRR/RAP) haven`t been the greatest, so
it`s been a little challenging to refine trends into the early
evening here. Initially, was looking to knock snow amounts down
closer to the Wisconsin state line, but we`re now noting a pretty
nice looking f-gen band that`s been getting going, arcing from
near Rockford southwest towards Des Moines and southwest Iowa
which is quite a bit farther north than earlier guidance had
indicated. In a similar vein, the northward surging dryslot is
evident into northern Missouri at this time which also muddles
trends for our southern locales later this evening.
In a nutshell, storm total snowfall amounts near the lake haven`t
changed materially with 5 to up to 9 inches (wherever our lake-
enhancement sets up through the evening with perhaps some signs of
lake-enhancement showing up on recent TORD/TMDW scans), but have
trended downwards along south of I-80 where low-quality snow and
the incoming dryslot are expected to cut into overall amounts.
Forecast soundings south of I-80 later this evening show us losing
the better saturation above 600 mb after about 8-9 PM, leaving a
saturated lower troposphere that`s all warmer than about -8 C.
This suggests precipitation type may begin to transition to light
snow and patchy freezing drizzle, further cutting down on totals.
With this in mind, have elected to convert the Winter Storm
Warning for Grundy and Southern Will counties to an advisory, but
will leave La Salle and those northward within the warning with
amounts still expected in the 4 to 7 inch range with the top-end
amounts probably being a little more sparse with the potential for
blowing snow still a concern in open areas as gusts occasionally
to 30 mph or so.
Today`s guidance suggests that deformation precip may come to an
end mid-late evening with some potential for additional bursts of
mainly light snow to re-develop after midnight with the arrival of
another embedded wave and attendant jet streak. Either way, the
most widespread impacts are still expected to ease by midnight
across the area, except near the lake where lake-enhancement is
expected to persist through the night. We`re still thinking the
guidance that`s squeezing out 1+" of QPF near the lake is a bit
overdone given the lack of better/deeper saturation that reaches
just into the base of the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone).
Another area of uncertainty is the potential for a lake effect
band to develop late tonight and persist into Sunday morning as
the flow begins to shift more into northwest Indiana. Lake
parameters aren`t super eye-popping with lake-induced ELs hanging
out under 6-7 kft so the HRRRs widespread double digit totals
still seem a bit too aggressive. We have delayed the end time of
PoPs into Lake and Porter Counties for this potential, however,
although won`t be making any formal changes to the end time of the
Winter Storm Warning (6 AM) due to very low confidence in this
feature`s timing and placement.
The main story headed into Sunday night will be the cold
temperatures, with guidance suggesting clear skies, calming winds,
and some snowpack in place yielding a potential for temperatures
to tank into the single digits below zero across interior parts of
northern/northwest Illinois. Winds look light enough to preclude
Wind Chill headlines at this time, but do look to fall to around
15 below in spots.
Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022
Monday through Saturday...
Primary forecast concern is another period for cold temperatures
for the end of the week. Additional concerns include precip
chances Wednesday and Thursday and again next weekend.
High pressure will moving east of the area by Monday evening with
southerly flow returning to the area and a brief moderation for
temps. Highs Monday still chilly in the 20s with teens for Tuesday
morning but highs on Tuesday are expected to reach back into the
lower/mid 30s though southerly winds may be gusting into the 25-30
mph range. Next storm system will move across WI Wednesday
morning and fairly good agreement from this distance. Best chance
for some light snow looks to be mainly across northern IL and
possibly into northwest IN and mainly behind a cold front that
will move across the area Wednesday morning. Blended pops are
mainly dry during this time and its possible precip will remain
north of the area, thus didn`t add any pops but some may be needed
with later forecasts. Wednesday is also looking windy behind the
cold front. Westerly winds may gust into the 35 mph range for much
of Wednesday. Temps look to fall during the day with highs likely
in the morning.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty from Wednesday night through
Friday as the GFS maintains a trough across the area into Thursday
with potential cloud cover, flurries or snow showers. The ECMWF
is more progressive with the first system and develops another
wave moving across the central Plains far more than the GFS. While
the trend will be much colder, a bit too early for the specifics.
Current lows for Thursday morning are generally in the single
digits. Temps could be warmer with a GFS solution. Could be a
better chance for some light snow Thursday, especially across the
southern cwa with a ECMWF solution. Agreement returns by Friday
as high pressure settles across the region leading to a likely
very cold Friday morning with blended temps already below zero for
most of the cwa. Temps try to moderate again going into Saturday
with another chance of precipitation. cms
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation weather challenges for the 00Z TAFs:
* IFR to MVFR conditions throughout the forecast area tonight
* Gusty northerly winds tonight
* Light to moderate snow tonight
Most of the CWA is experiencing light to moderate snow with MVFR to
IFR ceilings, while some sites have visibilities below 1 mile in
snow/fog/freezing fog. Winds have been gusty from the north-
northeast with gust up to around 30 kt. Snow and associated lower
ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue this evening,
with a slight improvement of visibilities and ceilings, although
only improving up to low MVFR, while visibilities will hover near
2 miles. Winds will weaken somewhat overnight, with gusts in the
upper 20s slowly working down to teens. Winds will also back west
of north to around 350 degrees after midnight.
Snow fall will continue to decrease overnight, becoming more of an
off and on snow fall scenario early Sunday morning. Ceilings will
lift up to MVFR, while visibilities will be in the IFR range. Snow
will end for western locations around 08Z, but will linger at sites
near the lake until around 10-11Z, and even longer in northwest
Indiana. Winds will continue to back and decrease in strength,
becoming northwesterly at around 10 kt by midday. With the exception
of northwest Indiana, ceilings should become VFR by midday, and
scatter out Sunday afternoon.
Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022
Northeast gale force winds will continue through this evening and
begin to diminish early Sunday morning across far southern Lake
Michigan. Winds will slowly turn more northerly early Sunday
morning and then are expected to shift northwest by daybreak for
the Illinois nearshore waters and then across the Indiana
nearshore waters later Sunday morning. As temperatures continue
to drop through the 20s Sunday morning, light freezing spray will
be possible. cms
IL...Winter Storm Warning...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ019 until midnight Sunday.
Winter Storm Warning...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105 until
6 AM Sunday.
Winter Weather Advisory...ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ106-
ILZ107-ILZ108 until 3 AM Sunday.
Winter Weather Advisory...ILZ033-ILZ039 until 6 AM Sunday.
IN...Winter Storm Warning...INZ001-INZ002 until 6 AM Sunday.
Winter Weather Advisory...INZ010-INZ011 until 6 AM Sunday.
LM...Gale Warning...nearshore waters until midnight Sunday.
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: