Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/23/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 A trough a day is keeping Santa away. Another shortwave trough is heading toward the area, and is clearly visible in Goes water vapor imagery in northeast MT at 19Z. This shortwave trough influences the area Thursday morning with weak-moderate QVector convergence...although water vapor imagery may suggest it is more toward moderate forcing. Mid-level frontogenesis signals are mixed with the latest RAP 22.18Z run indicating a bit stronger signal across the northcentral WI. Raw model guidance consensus is about 40- 50% snow Thursday morning with the 22.12Z ECMWF one of the most robust at 0.15". The challenge of this forecast is the dry sub-cloud air mass in place when the wave moves through. Good forcing will saturate the column in time for the driest air masses, but is it enough in this case...obviously some model members say yes. Have decided to continue or slightly increase the 30-50% chance of light snow trend near/north of I-94. But, we will need to monitor the trends on this as it could be a light cover of snow around the morning commute Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 Busy weather pattern for the end of the year with quick moving, mostly zonal flow ushering in bits of shortwave energy almost every day. Pcpn chances with most and potential for a mix of pcpn types at times. FRIDAY: bits of shortwave energy look to ripple through the upper level flow, although mostly focused across northern portions of MN/WI. Decent isentropic upglide (290-295K) and 850 mb warming lead the system through, focused on Fri morning. Some concern for drizzle/freezing drizzle with the low level thermodynamics, but saturation will be an issue. Bufkit soundings and time/height x- sections point to a fairly shallow saturated layer moving in from the south by mid/late morning. Whether or not this layer will be deep enough to support drizzle production is uncertain, with higher probabilities east of the local area. Some high cloud is expected to ride over the lower cloud, but too deep of a dry layer between low and high layers for seeder-feeder processes. Will go with some small drizzle chances across the eastern 1/2 Fri morning. HOLIDAY WEEKEND: models all in good agreement with shuffling bits of shortwave energy across the region Christmas. A weak wave looks to pass just south of the local area early in the day with another stronger feature either north or right through the area later in the day. The EC currently favors the northern track with the GFS/NAM more south. Only small/if any chances via the EC with a better shot in the GFS/NAM. Still, north is favored with these chances (along/north of I-90). Temps would lean toward mostly snow where the higher pcpn threat would lie and early signs point to some accumulations for these areas. Christmas snow? A lot of spread in the model outcomes right now, so how much could fall uncertain. Could be some impacts to travel though - so keep an eye on forecasts and plan accordingly. Sunday another shortwave trough looks to lift northeast out of the southern/central Plains and across the Upper Mississippi River valley. Models are at odds with how developed/wound up this system will be at this time, which lends uncertainty on potential amounts/pcpn types. The GFS and EC do agree that some pcpn is likely for at least part of the forecast area (especially Sun night). NEXT WEEK: nearly daily chances for pcpn with a bit cooler temps suggesting it should be (mainly) snow chances. The EC is a tad more enthusiastic with the various shortwave development/strength as they swing through. Confidence lower on the details for timing/possible amounts at this time and will ride the model blends for chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 VFR conditions are expected with SE winds up to 10 kts shifting SW for a time on Thursday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through. Mid/high clouds will increase overnight, but precip chances look to remain north and east of KLSE/KRST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baumgardt LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
831 PM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Morning) Issued at 137 PM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 An overall quiet day has developed across the Tri-State area with mainly clear skies and above normal temperatures along with light winds. The main story for the short term is the above normal temperatures over the area. Current RAP analysis indicates a low amplitude ridge over the western CONUS along with a surface trough extending from the Front Range into the Northern Plains. High clouds are beginning to emanate off of the Front Range into Western Kansas as the surface trough moves to the west. Into tonight a mix of mid and high clouds remains over western portions of the CWA whereas the eastern portions could see some high clouds. Due to the lack of cloud cover have lowered temperatures a few degrees to over the eastern CWA to account for stronger radiational cooling. Overall the CWA can expect to see lows in the 20s overnight. Thursday, will see temperatures fairly close to today, perhaps a degree or two cooler with widespread 60s expected. Elevated to near critical fire weather is expected along and west of Kansas Highway 27. An hour or two critical fire weather is possible as well. Winds will be out of the south at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts of 25 mph especially across Kit Carson and Yuma counties. Outdoor burning is not encouraged tomorrow as the finer fuels are at the least modestly receptive to the spread of wildfires. Mid level clouds will be on the increase during the overnight hours resulting in low temperatures in the 30s, with some locations potentially setting record highest low temperatures. A surface low develops over SE Colorado/SW Kansas during the afternoon resulting in warmer temperatures for Friday with 60s and and perhaps some low 70s over the southern counties for afternoon highs. Winds will become breezy mainly over southeastern portions of the CWA with the eastward progression of the low with wind gusts of 30-35 mph possible. It is worth noting that the GFS is further north with the low which if verifies would creating gusty to windy conditions mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Christmas morning lows will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s over the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 The lack of precipitation across much of the Tri-State area for the last month or so continues to bring fire weather concerns to the forefront. Continue to monitor conditions and heed any burn bans put in place. The forecast starts out with a weak ridge crossing the plains on Saturday and southwest flow commencing on Sunday. Sunday poses the best chance for fire weather conditions with a warm front draped from northwest to southeast across the Tri-State area. Temperatures in the southern part of the area may rise into the mid-60s with a few models hinting at potential upper 60s. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the mid to upper teens for areas south of Hwy 36 and west of a line from St. Francis to Goodland to Russell Springs. Winds gusting to 25-35mph will be possible in these areas increasing the potential fire concerns in the afternoon. With conditions as dry as they are and forecasted winds, any fires that ignite will have the potential to grow rapidly. Sunday, a low develops in the vicinity of the Black Hills and Bighorns region, pushing east on Monday. An attendant cold front is expected to slip south into the region Sunday night/Monday morning. Forecast high temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler, ranging from the mid-40s to low 50s. Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the forecast with highs down to the mid- 30s to low 40s by Wednesday and lows in the single digits and teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 815 PM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with ceilings confined to cirrus AOA 20-25 kft. 6-12 knot SW-WSW winds will prevail overnight.. becoming variable AOA sunrise. Winds will shift to the S and increase to 10-20 knots by mid-late afternoon.. 10-15 kt at MCK.. 15-20 kt at GLD. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 Fire weather concerns will be present over the next several days due to low relative humidity values and the potential for gusty winds. RH values for Thursday look to be in the mid teens, however with dry downslope winds being present (which has lowered dewpoints lower than expected for today) would not be surprised if the same scenario presents itself tomorrow. Southerly winds of 10-20 knots are expected with gusts of 25 knots possible. Friday, RH values will be a little higher in the lower 20s with gusts of 20-30 knots possible. The GFS has a surface low tracking further north over the CWA, which if verifies would create stronger wind gusts potentially reaching the surface. With many traveling for the holidays, make sure to try to avoid creating sparks as fuels are very supportive for the spread of wildfires and be aware of any local burn bans that may be in place. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 137 PM MST Wed Dec 22 2021 ================================================== December 24th Maximum Temperature Records: ================================================== Hill City 64 degrees in 1955 (Current Forecast: 68 degrees) ================================================== December 24th Warmest Low Temperatures Records: ================================================== Goodland 32 degrees in 1940 (Current Forecast: 35 degrees) Burlington 28 degrees in 2016 (Current Forecast: 35 degrees) Hill City 34 degrees in 1940 (Current Forecast: 34 degrees) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...VINCENT FIRE WEATHER...TT CLIMATE...TT