Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/12/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
714 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong wind gusts are expected late this evening and tonight
tonight with the passing of a cold front. Lake effect snow
showers develop early Sunday morning behind the front. A period
of dry mild weather is expected through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
705 pm update...
Just minor tweaks to PoP timing with the FROPA. Everything
fairly well on track.
420 pm update...
Decided to upgrade to a high wind warning across Steuben County
on northeast to Oneida County. The HRRR is doing a fairly decent
job picking up the max wind gusts currently pushing eastward
across BUF area. Expecting at least a few gusts to 60 mph,
especially across higher terrain/exposed areas. Winds should
eventually ease up late tonight as the pressure gradient eases
up around/just after midnight.
320 pm update...
Cold front is currently pushing into western NY this afternoon.
This front will cross the region this evening. There is some
limited instability out ahead of the front with forecast
soundings showing about 100 J/kg of elevated CAPE. However, very
strong wind shear is in place with 50 knots of 0-1 km bulk
shear. A line of convection has developed out ahead of the cold
front and will be pushing into our western counties within the
next hour or 2. Although there is no lightning with this line
at this time, can`t rule out some embedded thunder as the line
passes this evening as well as some strong localized wind gusts.
With the strong low level wind shear, can`t rule out a few
isolated tornadoes embedded in the convective line. Probability
of occurrence is very low, but given the robust dynamics and
low level helicity (0-1km SRH 500 m2/s2), will need to keep a
close eye on RADAR this evening.
The early evening hours have the potential to produce a broad
area of efficient mixing and strong winds across the region on
the order of wind gusts 35 to 45 mph...with 55 mph not out of
the question across the Finger Lakes Region, especially directly
behind the cold front.
Wind Advisory remains unchanged...with the strongest gusts
expected between 4 pm and 9 pm this evening. Winds will start to
decrease late tonight and into early Sunday morning. Behind the
front, there will likely be a brief window for lake effect snow
showers to develop. Temperatures will fall rapidly late tonight
and early Sunday into the 30s. There could be 1-2 inches of
lake effect snow across parts of Oneida County and likely just a
dusting of snow elsewhere.
As temperatures warm, lake enhanced showers will slowly
dissipate around or just after sunrise Sunday over Steuben
County, and before noon along and north of the Thruway. Warmer
air starts to move in during the day Sunday along with much
drier air. Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 30s to mid
40s. Winds will remain a little breezy, but gusts will only be up
to 20 mph. Clouds will also clear tomorrow and overall it is
looking like a nice day. Ridging and WAA advection starts to
build into the region from the southwest by tomorrow afternoon.
Although skies will be mostly clear tomorrow night, not
expecting lows to dip too cold, with values generally in the
upper 20s to low 30s across much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM Update..
Surface high pressure with dry air will move over the area
Tuesday. Zonal flow aloft becomes a broad ridge ahead of the
next system. Heights are well above average. Monday will be
mostly sunny with highs from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Some
moisture aloft will bring increasing high clouds but with high
pressure temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 40s. Low
temperatures Monday night will be around 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 pm update...
Little change to the long term. Models similar in the outcome.
Intensifying low pressure in the upper Plains moves northeast
over Lake Superior Thursday. A warm front lifts through
Wednesday with the best chance of showers in CNY. The cold front
with more showers cross the region Thursday and Thursday night.
High pressure returns Friday followed by another lake cutter
this weekend.
300 AM Update...
Dry conditions are expected through mid-week with high pressure
still in place. Another low pressure system develops in the Central
US during the mid-week. Cloud cover increases ahead of this system
and a shortwave could trigger some light snow showers and/or a
rain/snow mix across the Twin Tiers and Finger Lakes Regions early
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, rain chances increase Wednesday
afternoon as a warm front approaches the region. After the warm
front passes through, the region will be in the warm sector as the
low moves northward to the northern Great Lakes Region early
Thursday. A cooler air mass moves in late Thursday night after the
passage of a cold front. For now, the highest PoPs are across CNY
with NEPA staying dry until the cold front approaches. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty though with how this system will develop
and track. The National Blend of Models (NBM) was used for PoPs.
Temperatures during this period will remain quite warm for this time
of year with 40s and 50s for highs and 30s and even 40s for lows.
The temps for Thursday have trended slightly warmer since the last
update, but there is still some uncertainty about how far north
the warmer air extends after the warm frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong cold front with shallow convection and strong winds is
actively moving through the area, having recently moved through
RME and BGM. AVP is next line with arrival around 0045Z.
Convection appears to be intensifying as it approaches and may
need to boost TEMPO group winds in and AMD shortly. Very brief
MVFR ceilings and IFR visbys possible, with MVFR ceilings likely
to return to some favored sites with westerly flow (BGM and
ITH).
Otherwise, strong gradient winds will persist behind the front
for about 3-4 hours, strongest at SYR and RME where gusts close
to 50 knots will remain possible.
The rain ends with the exit of the cold front, but there could
be some lake enhanced snow for a few hours at RME before 12Z
Sunday. Otherwise, most terminals are dry late in the forecast
period and become VFR after midnight tonight and through the day
Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night through Wednesday...VFR conditions under high
pressure.
Thursday...Another frontal system may impact the region with
associated restrictions in rain showers and possible LLWS as
well.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ024-045-046-055>057-
062.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-015>018-022-
023-025-036-037-044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BTL/TAC
AVIATION...MPK/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
930 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong low pressure will continue to lift off to our north and
west overnight, with a cold front to move through this evening. Very
gusty winds are expected with the cold frontal passage, along with a
final round of rain showers. Sunday will be dry but cooler and
blustery. Quiet weather will persist through mid week, with our next
chance of precipitation arriving late Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 926 PM EST Saturday...A slightly earlier than normal
update as the core of the strongest winds has exited northern NY
and will move across cent/nrn VT for the next few hours.
Funneling and location of core across Canadian border means wind
gusts to 50-55 mph still possible for a few houes in Nrn NY and
VT/Canadian border. Elsewhere and through the early morning
wind gusts 35-45 mph possible slowly diminshing toward daybreak.
Again, no changes to grids necessary per great forecast by
dayshift.
Early evening update...Potentially dangerous wind event
developing across St. Lawrence Valley and expected to expand
into the Franklin, Clinton and perhaps the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks in Essex county through 9 pm. Wind gusts up to 70
mph have already been observed near Hammond/Ogdensburg and wind
gusts possibly in excess of 65 mph for the above mentioned
areas. This will mean scattered to numerous power outages
possible as well as tree damage and possible structural damage
to roofs.
In Vermont...strongest winds will move into the region starting
around 7 pm with the areas along the Canadian border being the
most susceptible to wind gusts in excess of 50 mph as well as
the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains late tonight and
overnight which may cause scattered power outages.
Previous forecast has nailed this scenario...strongest winds will
come in waves through midnight with a very slow gradual diminish in
intensity overnight.
No changes to current headlines or forecasts.
Late Afternoon Discussion...High Wind Warnings and Wind
Advisories remain in place for almost the entire North Country
this evening and much of tonight.
Strong low pressure, analyzed at about 979 mb, is lifting north of
Lake Superior this afternoon. A very impressive jet, with 70+ kt at
850mb, has developed out ahead of this low`s attendant cold front,
which currently stretches from roughly Buffalo southward into
eastern Ohio/eastern Kentucky. This jet will continue spread
northeastward through this evening as the cold front surges
eastward. Ahead of the cold front, warm air aloft has kept the worst
of the winds from mixing to the surface, though we did have a brief
burst across the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and northern
Champlain Valley this morning, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph reported.
With the cold frontal passage this evening though, mixing will
become optimal as temperatures quickly cool aloft. The pressure
rises with the frontal passage are quite impressive, as much as 7-
8mb over 3 hours, and expect winds will rapidly intensify as they
turn to the southwest and surge up the St Lawrence Valley. As the
front and winds shift eastward, the HRRR has been quite consistent
with showing very strong gusts downsloping off the northern/eastern
side of the Adirondacks. Much of the hi-res guidance indicates 60-
70+kt at the top of the mixed layer in these locations, even down
into PBG. Therefore, the High Wind Warning remains in place for all
of northern NY except eastern Essex County, as gusts of 50 to 70 mph
are possible. The winds will lessen somewhat as the jet/front move
into Vermont, but still expect gusts of 40-50 mph for much of the
region, though some higher gusts will be possible over the far
northern Champlain Valley. Therefore the Wind Advisory remains in
place as well, excepting western Chittenden/Addison Counties and
Caledonia and Essex Counties which will remain more protected from
the higher terrain. Winds will remain pretty gusty much of tonight,
again especially on those northeastern slopes of the Greens, where
gusts could remain in the 50-60mph range through 4-5am.
Also accompanying the front, though of lesser concern, there`ll be a
line of briefly heavy rain, as is already being seen on upstream
radar imagery. There could even be some lightning with this thin
convective band, though the chance was slim enough to preclude
mention in the forecast at this time. Colder and drier air following
the front will transition rain over to snow showers that will come
to an end shortly after midnight, lingering longest in the higher
terrain of the Adirondacks as there`ll be of influence off Lake
Ontario as winds turn to the west late tonight. The airmass behind
the front isn`t dramatically cold though, so lows will stay in the
mid 20s to mid 30s.
For Sunday and Sunday night...blustery conditions will continue with
cold air advection keeping things mixed through the day. Gusts of 25
to 35 mph will be common until daylight wanes and we lose diurnal
heating. Still, we should see plenty of sunshine, and the clear
skies will continue into the overnight. Highs will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s, then temperatures cool down back into the mid 20s/mid
30s Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EST Saturday...Relatively quiet weather is expected on
Monday with above normal temperatures. A weak disturbance will pass
overhead, but this will result in little more than an increase in
cloud cover. The pressure gradient will remain enhanced across the
region due to high pressure located across the Southeast while a low
pressure system is located in northern Quebec, Canada. This will
keep west winds fairly breezy on Monday with sustained winds of
10-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph, mainly across northern New
York. Winds will die down during the overnight hours. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows in
the upper 20s to low 30s. There could be a few flurries across
mountainous terrain late Monday into Tuesday, but chances are
limited due to the lack of moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 328 PM EST Saturday...No significant changes to the forecast
for the remainder of the week. High pressure builds into the region
on Tuesday resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will trend
cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. A warm front will
then lift across the region late Wednesday into Thursday bringing
increasing chances for precipitation. We could see a mix of wintry
precipitation during this time, especially east of the Green
Mountains, but until more data becomes available, have kept with a
rain/snow mix in the forecast for now. There looks to be a lull in
precipitation late Thursday before a cold frontal passage brings a
return to precipitation chances on Friday. Precipitation chances
have been increased slightly for this system with good agreement
among global deterministic guidance. There still looks to be
potentially strong wind gusts with this system, but if trends in
guidance continue to keep this system well to the north, then lesser
chances for strong winds will exist. Stay tuned for more information
as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...MVFR/VFR expected through the period with
a period of scattered showers early (through 00-04Z) with
surface frontal passage. Main concern continues to be
exceptionally strong winds that will affect KMSS/KSLK/KPBG in
the 00-07Z time frame, lesser so at Vermont terminals. Post
frontal west to southwesterly wind gusts from 50-70 mph expected
at NY terminals, and from 40-50 mph at Vermont terminals during
this period. This will create potentially hazardous conditions
for approaches and departures with locally severe mechanical
turbulence and wind shear, especially at northern NY terminals.
Winds slowly abate after 07Z, but remain modestly gusty from
the west/southwest into Sunday from 25 to 35 mph.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Another windy day is expected on Lake Champlain today. Winds
will be gusty out of the south this morning, with sustained
winds likely reaching 30 kts on the lake. Strong southwesterly
winds will continue into the overnight as a cold front crosses
the region. Then on Sunday winds will remain brisk but out of
the west.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ001>003-006-008-010-
012-016>019.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ035.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings/SLW
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Neiles
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
837 PM MST Sat Dec 11 2021
.UPDATE...
Have allowed the High Wind Warning for the Judith Gap through Big
Timber corridor to expire as pressures are starting to fall over
southeast Idaho and gradients will weaken. Still sufficient
momentum for a few gusts but in general the decreasing trend is
ongoing. 60 mph winds are still likely at Livingston through the
night so no changes to that warning. borsum
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...
Biggest concern for the short-term is winds. One issue is
possibility of mountain waves tonight into early Sunday in Red
Lodge. NBM showed a 13 percent chance of winds greater than or
equal to 58 mph in Red Lodge. Looking at 700 mb winds from
Situational Awareness Tables showed the winds decreasing tonight.
Also, ECMWF and GEFS ensemble wind charts (winds in 40s), various
model cross-sections and HRRR sounding kept winds above the
surface with a low-level inversion with the aid of snow cover.
Winds aloft will be strongest (above 50 mph) after midnight MST,
peaking around 5 AM MST Sunday. 80m and 10m wind gusts on WSUP
were unremarkable. Thus increased winds in Red Lodge area and will
alert next shifts to be ready for possible SPS for that area.
Winds will be quite strong around 70 mph in northern Bighorns on
MT side tonight into early Sunday. This is not an area that High
Wind Warnings are issued for due to lack of population/roads. Did
add areas of blowing snow to the grids tonight through Sunday for
locations above 5000 ft. KLVM has been gusting into the 70s with
no blowing snow (too warm). Can add mention of blowing snow to
High Wind Warnings. Melville and Rapelje hit 66 mph earlier.
Stillwater County was not in the Warning. Sites in Beartooth
Foothills were hitting High Wind criteria as well as the Upper
Musselshell Agrimet in Wheatland County. Only Judith Gap was a
bit below criteria so far. No changes planned to the Warnings.
Tight pressure gradient continues into Sun. morning then begins to
slacken Sun. afternoon. Winds will be lighter the rest of the
period.
As for PoPs, SREF kept QPF confined to western mountains and the
NBM 90th percentile was light on QPF in the mountains. There will
be an atmospheric river affecting the mountains tonight. Used a
model blend for PoPs through Monday. Best chances will be in SW
mountains on Sunday. Will have low PoPs in the foothills at
times. Total mountain snowfall through Monday will be around 5
inches in Cooke City with around a foot in the highest peaks. Highs
will be in the 40s both days with Mon. being the cooler day.
Arthur
Tuesday through Saturday...
Not many changes to the extended forecast today. Southwest flow
ahead of an approaching upper level trough on Tuesday will promote
snow showers over the southwest mountains. Downsloping will keep
most locations to the north of the Beartooth and Absaroka ranges
mostly dry. Ensembles are generally in good agreement as the
trough comes ashore, and promote the passage of a cold front
during the Tuesday/Wednesday overnight period. Most of the area
looks to see some light snow with several inches possible in the
favored mountain/foothills areas.
Thursday will be drier before another trough moves in from the
northwest on Friday morning, which would bring even cooler temps
and another chance of some light snow to much of the area. As the
second trough moves out Friday evening, some areas of high winds
are possible in the western zones.
Regarding temperatures - Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s on
Tuesday before the cold front and the 20s to lower 30s on
Wednesday and Thursday, slightly cooler Friday. Lows will be in
the 20s Tuesday night and the teens through the rest of the
period.
Behringer
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusty west winds to 50 kts will continue for areas west of KBIL
through the early evening with gusts to 60 kts at KLVM through
tonight. Occasional mountain obscuration are possible over the
far southwest mountains Sunday morning. Expect VFR to prevail
throughout the period.
Behringer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/045 024/040 027/047 023/031 013/032 010/026 012/033
00/N 00/B 01/U 64/S 11/B 21/B 01/B
LVM 032/045 032/047 034/048 022/032 015/034 014/032 017/036
12/S 22/O 35/O 74/S 12/S 21/N 12/S
HDN 027/046 019/042 021/049 021/033 011/033 007/027 007/033
00/B 00/B 00/U 55/S 10/B 21/B 01/B
MLS 025/046 021/042 020/045 019/027 010/030 007/024 008/031
01/E 00/B 00/B 23/S 10/B 10/B 00/B
4BQ 026/047 023/046 028/054 022/031 015/036 011/027 012/036
00/B 00/B 00/U 14/S 10/B 00/B 00/B
BHK 026/047 022/043 024/051 018/027 010/030 007/022 008/033
00/B 00/B 00/U 13/S 10/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 023/046 023/046 026/052 021/033 013/036 012/030 012/038
00/B 00/B 00/U 46/S 10/B 21/B 00/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM MST Sunday FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
850 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers will last into this evening as a strong cold
front crosses central Pennsylvania. A sharp wind shift and
potential wind gusts over 40 mph will accompany the front
through early evening. Seasonable temperatures return for later
tonight and Sunday. A long stretch of mainly dry and relatively
mild weather is expected next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
845 pm/0145z update... Strong surface cold front was quickly
pushing through eastern PA as of this writing. Frontal squall
line, with brief heavy downpours and strong wind gusts, should
be tracking east of the Lower Susquehanna Valley shortly.
Although a general uptick in intensity has occurred,
organization of any particular segment of the line has yet to
justify any convective warnings.
Farther west, post-frontal gusts of 35-45 kt continue in an
area of generally strong isallobaric forcing (good pressure
rises, along with strong low-level cold air advection featuring
a westerly flow well aligned with the axis connecting the
maxima in pressure falls/rises). Gusty winds will continue for
the rest of the evening before beginning to subside later
tonight, as the deep parent low lifts northward through eastern
Canada and farther away from the region, thus weakening the
isallobaric forcing.
From this vantage point, we will likely be able to discontinue
the Wind Advisory on schedule at 6z/1 am local time.
Previous discussion... 5 pm/22z update... The forecast is in
very good shape overall, so just some cosmetic tweaks were made
through the evening hours.
Strong surface cold front continued to advance eastward early
this evening, and as of 5 pm was crossing the Allegheny Plateau
just west of Lock Haven, State College, and Altoona. Mostly
35-45 kt gusts have been seen with and just behind the frontal
passage. We expect this to largely continue with eastward
extent.
Across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, temperatures have
significantly warmed up and remain well into the 60s. Near-term
model soundings (RAP/HRRR) seem to have underplayed this degree
of warming some. As a result, there may be a bit more in the way
of instability than the models are indicating and consequently we`ve
added the mention of isolated thunder in this area from roughly
6-8 pm. It is this region that we`ll be keenly watching for any
convective elements to perhaps produce damaging wind gusts of
50+ kt on an isolated basis.
Earlier discussion... Several bands of showers will traversing
central PA this afternoon, ahead of deepening low pressure
tracking from the Great Lakes into northern Ontario. Trailing
cold front extending from Warren County to southeast OH as of
1930z will sweep through central PA through late afternoon and
early evening before reaching the Mid Atlantic coast by 06 UTC
Sunday. The big question leading up to FROPA was how much
instability would be present to help mix down potentially
damaging wind gusts, and model consensus seems to be winning out
as the frontal rain band is extremely narrow over NW PA/E OH
and wind gusts are topping out in the 32 to 36 kt range as
frontal band heads into more stable air to the east. Will still
need to watch this classic high shear low CAPE FROPA closely as
front emerges into warm sector over my southeast counties late
this afternoon.
Highly confident in strong, non-convective wind gusts to 45 mph
near and behind the sharp cold frontal passage late afternoon/early
evening. An isold 50 kt gusts may be possible over the higher
terrain, but main message for high end Wind Advisory remains.
Models indicate strong post-frontal 3hr sfc pressure rises on
the order of 7-10mb this evening, with well-aligned CAA and WNW
flow in the boundary layer. Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the entire forecast area with max wind gusts most likely
between 5 and 11 PM based on HRRR and Bufkit sounding profiles.
Behind the front, seasonably colder air arrives with temps
dropping back down into the 30-40F range by Sunday morning.
A brief period of lake effect/orographic snow showers is likely
late tonight, but minimal lake-850mb temp difference and low
inversion heights should limit any snow accums to a coating to
less than 1 inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions rapidly settle down by early Sunday thanks to
strong building of upper ridge/surface high east over the east
coast Sunday into early next week. Therefore, we have high
confidence of fair weather with mainly sunny skies Sunday.
MaxTs on Sunday will be -20F to -30F degrees colder than Saturday,
but still near seasonal averages most places. Lows Sunday night
area again seasonably chilly ranging from upper 20s northwest to
lower to middle 30s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and a building ridge aloft will keep our weather
tranquil through the beginning of next week.
There is some indication that a backdoor cold front will slip
through the region Tuesday or Tuesday night, as a surface high
builds across northern New England. Meanwhile, a warm front
lifting through the eastern Great Lakes could produce a bit of
very light precip over primarily northwestern PA Tuesday night
into Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area late next the week, with the
bulk of guidance pointing towards a Thursday night frontal
passage. Ahead of this front, Thursday looks like it could be
another anomalously warm day. Scattered rain showers are likely
to precede and accompany the front across the region.
A brief period of fair and seasonably cooler conditions are
expected on Friday behind the front. After that, medium-range
guidance suggests that a wave of low pressure will push up the
Ohio Valley and push a round of rain across the area Friday
night into Saturday, followed by a return to chillier weather
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to advance across the southeast
through 02z, bringing SHRA and gusty westerly winds. The rest of
the area is already behind the front, with westerly wind gusts
up to 40 kts. The western highlands and northern tier will
likely hold onto MVFR cigs tonight with the upsloping westerly
flow behind the front. Farther to the east, conds should remain
VFR through the night.
Sunday will bring decreasing winds (some gusts to 20 kts
possible) and VFR conditions across the entire CWA.
Outlook...
Sun-Tue...VFR.
Wed...Mainly VFR, with isolated showers NW.
Thu...Showers developing across the west later in the day.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record max temperatures for 12/11 (current forecast):
MDT |63 in 1897 (66F)
IPT |64 in 1912 (61F)
AOO |63 in 1979 (61F)
BFD |55 in 1979 & 2020 (60F)
STC |65 in 1979 (61F)
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
457 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021
Main highlights with this forecast package are the potential for
near critical fire conditions Sunday, and warm and very windy
conditions Wednesday.
Yesterday`s low pressure system has moved well east of us past the
Great Lakes now, while closer to home, high pressure is sliding just
south of our area. The upper trough moving east is keeping
northwesterly flow aloft for now, though this will transition toward
the west for tomorrow as sfc winds back to the southwest. With these
low-level winds turning to the west and southwest, not expecting
temperatures to drop much overnight as this should allow warmer air
to advect into the area. Have temps holding steady around 30
degrees, though if the BL decouples enough, could see some locations
fall into the 20s. As we head into the daytime hours and the
pressure gradient tightens over the area, this will help
temperatures warm further with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds
look quite breezy through the day as most locations should gust up
to 30-35mph. These conditions set us up for very high fire danger
area-wide tomorrow at the least (see fire discussion for more
details).
By Monday, the area finds itself within southwest flow aloft while a
strong upper trough develops off the west coast. This will keep a
warming trend going through the first half of the week before lee
cyclogenesis develops Tuesday into Wednesday. Record warmth remains
possible on Tuesday and likely on Wednesday. As mentioned
previously, a LLJ of 60-80 kts is progged to develop and forecast
soundings do show potential for winds up to 60mph to mix down to the
surface. The cold front associated with the system is expected to
sweep across the area late, which could result in a line of
thunderstorms in the far eastern portion of the area late Wednesday.
However, there remains a possibility for these to develop east of
the area after the front moves through, so timing will bear watching
as well.
There could be another late-week front, but overall relatively
cooler temperatures look to set up for the second half of the week
with highs in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 457 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021
Dry air will allow VFR conditions to persist. RAP and NAM forecast
soundings show the boundary layer at TOP and MHK decoupling with
a steep nocturnal inversion and a 40KT low level jet. Directional
shear is marginal, but think speed shear is good enough for a
mention of wind shear in the forecast. The boundary layer at FOE
is progged to remain a little more mixed with less speed shear. So
will leave wind shear out for now and monitor conditions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021
With relative humidity not expected to recover very well
overnight (staying as low as 35-50% in many locations), this
increases the concern for fuel load per collaboration with fire
partners. Additionally, the warmer and dry conditions remaining in
place will result in afternoon RH once again dropping to 20-25%
across the area while southerly winds gust to 30-35mph. All these
factors combined, have opted for a Fire Weather Watch across the
entire area for late Sunday morning through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Picha