Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/12/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
714 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Strong wind gusts are expected late this evening and tonight tonight with the passing of a cold front. Lake effect snow showers develop early Sunday morning behind the front. A period of dry mild weather is expected through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 705 pm update... Just minor tweaks to PoP timing with the FROPA. Everything fairly well on track. 420 pm update... Decided to upgrade to a high wind warning across Steuben County on northeast to Oneida County. The HRRR is doing a fairly decent job picking up the max wind gusts currently pushing eastward across BUF area. Expecting at least a few gusts to 60 mph, especially across higher terrain/exposed areas. Winds should eventually ease up late tonight as the pressure gradient eases up around/just after midnight. 320 pm update... Cold front is currently pushing into western NY this afternoon. This front will cross the region this evening. There is some limited instability out ahead of the front with forecast soundings showing about 100 J/kg of elevated CAPE. However, very strong wind shear is in place with 50 knots of 0-1 km bulk shear. A line of convection has developed out ahead of the cold front and will be pushing into our western counties within the next hour or 2. Although there is no lightning with this line at this time, can`t rule out some embedded thunder as the line passes this evening as well as some strong localized wind gusts. With the strong low level wind shear, can`t rule out a few isolated tornadoes embedded in the convective line. Probability of occurrence is very low, but given the robust dynamics and low level helicity (0-1km SRH 500 m2/s2), will need to keep a close eye on RADAR this evening. The early evening hours have the potential to produce a broad area of efficient mixing and strong winds across the region on the order of wind gusts 35 to 45 mph...with 55 mph not out of the question across the Finger Lakes Region, especially directly behind the cold front. Wind Advisory remains unchanged...with the strongest gusts expected between 4 pm and 9 pm this evening. Winds will start to decrease late tonight and into early Sunday morning. Behind the front, there will likely be a brief window for lake effect snow showers to develop. Temperatures will fall rapidly late tonight and early Sunday into the 30s. There could be 1-2 inches of lake effect snow across parts of Oneida County and likely just a dusting of snow elsewhere. As temperatures warm, lake enhanced showers will slowly dissipate around or just after sunrise Sunday over Steuben County, and before noon along and north of the Thruway. Warmer air starts to move in during the day Sunday along with much drier air. Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Winds will remain a little breezy, but gusts will only be up to 20 mph. Clouds will also clear tomorrow and overall it is looking like a nice day. Ridging and WAA advection starts to build into the region from the southwest by tomorrow afternoon. Although skies will be mostly clear tomorrow night, not expecting lows to dip too cold, with values generally in the upper 20s to low 30s across much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 PM Update.. Surface high pressure with dry air will move over the area Tuesday. Zonal flow aloft becomes a broad ridge ahead of the next system. Heights are well above average. Monday will be mostly sunny with highs from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Some moisture aloft will bring increasing high clouds but with high pressure temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 40s. Low temperatures Monday night will be around 30. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 pm update... Little change to the long term. Models similar in the outcome. Intensifying low pressure in the upper Plains moves northeast over Lake Superior Thursday. A warm front lifts through Wednesday with the best chance of showers in CNY. The cold front with more showers cross the region Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure returns Friday followed by another lake cutter this weekend. 300 AM Update... Dry conditions are expected through mid-week with high pressure still in place. Another low pressure system develops in the Central US during the mid-week. Cloud cover increases ahead of this system and a shortwave could trigger some light snow showers and/or a rain/snow mix across the Twin Tiers and Finger Lakes Regions early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, rain chances increase Wednesday afternoon as a warm front approaches the region. After the warm front passes through, the region will be in the warm sector as the low moves northward to the northern Great Lakes Region early Thursday. A cooler air mass moves in late Thursday night after the passage of a cold front. For now, the highest PoPs are across CNY with NEPA staying dry until the cold front approaches. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty though with how this system will develop and track. The National Blend of Models (NBM) was used for PoPs. Temperatures during this period will remain quite warm for this time of year with 40s and 50s for highs and 30s and even 40s for lows. The temps for Thursday have trended slightly warmer since the last update, but there is still some uncertainty about how far north the warmer air extends after the warm frontal passage. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong cold front with shallow convection and strong winds is actively moving through the area, having recently moved through RME and BGM. AVP is next line with arrival around 0045Z. Convection appears to be intensifying as it approaches and may need to boost TEMPO group winds in and AMD shortly. Very brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visbys possible, with MVFR ceilings likely to return to some favored sites with westerly flow (BGM and ITH). Otherwise, strong gradient winds will persist behind the front for about 3-4 hours, strongest at SYR and RME where gusts close to 50 knots will remain possible. The rain ends with the exit of the cold front, but there could be some lake enhanced snow for a few hours at RME before 12Z Sunday. Otherwise, most terminals are dry late in the forecast period and become VFR after midnight tonight and through the day Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night through Wednesday...VFR conditions under high pressure. Thursday...Another frontal system may impact the region with associated restrictions in rain showers and possible LLWS as well. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 048-072. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ024-045-046-055>057- 062. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ009-015>018-022- 023-025-036-037-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...BTL/TAC AVIATION...MPK/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
930 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Very strong low pressure will continue to lift off to our north and west overnight, with a cold front to move through this evening. Very gusty winds are expected with the cold frontal passage, along with a final round of rain showers. Sunday will be dry but cooler and blustery. Quiet weather will persist through mid week, with our next chance of precipitation arriving late Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 926 PM EST Saturday...A slightly earlier than normal update as the core of the strongest winds has exited northern NY and will move across cent/nrn VT for the next few hours. Funneling and location of core across Canadian border means wind gusts to 50-55 mph still possible for a few houes in Nrn NY and VT/Canadian border. Elsewhere and through the early morning wind gusts 35-45 mph possible slowly diminshing toward daybreak. Again, no changes to grids necessary per great forecast by dayshift. Early evening update...Potentially dangerous wind event developing across St. Lawrence Valley and expected to expand into the Franklin, Clinton and perhaps the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks in Essex county through 9 pm. Wind gusts up to 70 mph have already been observed near Hammond/Ogdensburg and wind gusts possibly in excess of 65 mph for the above mentioned areas. This will mean scattered to numerous power outages possible as well as tree damage and possible structural damage to roofs. In Vermont...strongest winds will move into the region starting around 7 pm with the areas along the Canadian border being the most susceptible to wind gusts in excess of 50 mph as well as the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains late tonight and overnight which may cause scattered power outages. Previous forecast has nailed this scenario...strongest winds will come in waves through midnight with a very slow gradual diminish in intensity overnight. No changes to current headlines or forecasts. Late Afternoon Discussion...High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in place for almost the entire North Country this evening and much of tonight. Strong low pressure, analyzed at about 979 mb, is lifting north of Lake Superior this afternoon. A very impressive jet, with 70+ kt at 850mb, has developed out ahead of this low`s attendant cold front, which currently stretches from roughly Buffalo southward into eastern Ohio/eastern Kentucky. This jet will continue spread northeastward through this evening as the cold front surges eastward. Ahead of the cold front, warm air aloft has kept the worst of the winds from mixing to the surface, though we did have a brief burst across the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Champlain Valley this morning, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph reported. With the cold frontal passage this evening though, mixing will become optimal as temperatures quickly cool aloft. The pressure rises with the frontal passage are quite impressive, as much as 7- 8mb over 3 hours, and expect winds will rapidly intensify as they turn to the southwest and surge up the St Lawrence Valley. As the front and winds shift eastward, the HRRR has been quite consistent with showing very strong gusts downsloping off the northern/eastern side of the Adirondacks. Much of the hi-res guidance indicates 60- 70+kt at the top of the mixed layer in these locations, even down into PBG. Therefore, the High Wind Warning remains in place for all of northern NY except eastern Essex County, as gusts of 50 to 70 mph are possible. The winds will lessen somewhat as the jet/front move into Vermont, but still expect gusts of 40-50 mph for much of the region, though some higher gusts will be possible over the far northern Champlain Valley. Therefore the Wind Advisory remains in place as well, excepting western Chittenden/Addison Counties and Caledonia and Essex Counties which will remain more protected from the higher terrain. Winds will remain pretty gusty much of tonight, again especially on those northeastern slopes of the Greens, where gusts could remain in the 50-60mph range through 4-5am. Also accompanying the front, though of lesser concern, there`ll be a line of briefly heavy rain, as is already being seen on upstream radar imagery. There could even be some lightning with this thin convective band, though the chance was slim enough to preclude mention in the forecast at this time. Colder and drier air following the front will transition rain over to snow showers that will come to an end shortly after midnight, lingering longest in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks as there`ll be of influence off Lake Ontario as winds turn to the west late tonight. The airmass behind the front isn`t dramatically cold though, so lows will stay in the mid 20s to mid 30s. For Sunday and Sunday night...blustery conditions will continue with cold air advection keeping things mixed through the day. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common until daylight wanes and we lose diurnal heating. Still, we should see plenty of sunshine, and the clear skies will continue into the overnight. Highs will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, then temperatures cool down back into the mid 20s/mid 30s Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 PM EST Saturday...Relatively quiet weather is expected on Monday with above normal temperatures. A weak disturbance will pass overhead, but this will result in little more than an increase in cloud cover. The pressure gradient will remain enhanced across the region due to high pressure located across the Southeast while a low pressure system is located in northern Quebec, Canada. This will keep west winds fairly breezy on Monday with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph, mainly across northern New York. Winds will die down during the overnight hours. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. There could be a few flurries across mountainous terrain late Monday into Tuesday, but chances are limited due to the lack of moisture. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 328 PM EST Saturday...No significant changes to the forecast for the remainder of the week. High pressure builds into the region on Tuesday resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will trend cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. A warm front will then lift across the region late Wednesday into Thursday bringing increasing chances for precipitation. We could see a mix of wintry precipitation during this time, especially east of the Green Mountains, but until more data becomes available, have kept with a rain/snow mix in the forecast for now. There looks to be a lull in precipitation late Thursday before a cold frontal passage brings a return to precipitation chances on Friday. Precipitation chances have been increased slightly for this system with good agreement among global deterministic guidance. There still looks to be potentially strong wind gusts with this system, but if trends in guidance continue to keep this system well to the north, then lesser chances for strong winds will exist. Stay tuned for more information as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...MVFR/VFR expected through the period with a period of scattered showers early (through 00-04Z) with surface frontal passage. Main concern continues to be exceptionally strong winds that will affect KMSS/KSLK/KPBG in the 00-07Z time frame, lesser so at Vermont terminals. Post frontal west to southwesterly wind gusts from 50-70 mph expected at NY terminals, and from 40-50 mph at Vermont terminals during this period. This will create potentially hazardous conditions for approaches and departures with locally severe mechanical turbulence and wind shear, especially at northern NY terminals. Winds slowly abate after 07Z, but remain modestly gusty from the west/southwest into Sunday from 25 to 35 mph. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Another windy day is expected on Lake Champlain today. Winds will be gusty out of the south this morning, with sustained winds likely reaching 30 kts on the lake. Strong southwesterly winds will continue into the overnight as a cold front crosses the region. Then on Sunday winds will remain brisk but out of the west. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ001>003-006-008-010- 012-016>019. NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ035. High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings/SLW NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Hammond LONG TERM...Hammond AVIATION...JMG MARINE...Neiles
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
837 PM MST Sat Dec 11 2021 .UPDATE... Have allowed the High Wind Warning for the Judith Gap through Big Timber corridor to expire as pressures are starting to fall over southeast Idaho and gradients will weaken. Still sufficient momentum for a few gusts but in general the decreasing trend is ongoing. 60 mph winds are still likely at Livingston through the night so no changes to that warning. borsum && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday Night... Biggest concern for the short-term is winds. One issue is possibility of mountain waves tonight into early Sunday in Red Lodge. NBM showed a 13 percent chance of winds greater than or equal to 58 mph in Red Lodge. Looking at 700 mb winds from Situational Awareness Tables showed the winds decreasing tonight. Also, ECMWF and GEFS ensemble wind charts (winds in 40s), various model cross-sections and HRRR sounding kept winds above the surface with a low-level inversion with the aid of snow cover. Winds aloft will be strongest (above 50 mph) after midnight MST, peaking around 5 AM MST Sunday. 80m and 10m wind gusts on WSUP were unremarkable. Thus increased winds in Red Lodge area and will alert next shifts to be ready for possible SPS for that area. Winds will be quite strong around 70 mph in northern Bighorns on MT side tonight into early Sunday. This is not an area that High Wind Warnings are issued for due to lack of population/roads. Did add areas of blowing snow to the grids tonight through Sunday for locations above 5000 ft. KLVM has been gusting into the 70s with no blowing snow (too warm). Can add mention of blowing snow to High Wind Warnings. Melville and Rapelje hit 66 mph earlier. Stillwater County was not in the Warning. Sites in Beartooth Foothills were hitting High Wind criteria as well as the Upper Musselshell Agrimet in Wheatland County. Only Judith Gap was a bit below criteria so far. No changes planned to the Warnings. Tight pressure gradient continues into Sun. morning then begins to slacken Sun. afternoon. Winds will be lighter the rest of the period. As for PoPs, SREF kept QPF confined to western mountains and the NBM 90th percentile was light on QPF in the mountains. There will be an atmospheric river affecting the mountains tonight. Used a model blend for PoPs through Monday. Best chances will be in SW mountains on Sunday. Will have low PoPs in the foothills at times. Total mountain snowfall through Monday will be around 5 inches in Cooke City with around a foot in the highest peaks. Highs will be in the 40s both days with Mon. being the cooler day. Arthur Tuesday through Saturday... Not many changes to the extended forecast today. Southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper level trough on Tuesday will promote snow showers over the southwest mountains. Downsloping will keep most locations to the north of the Beartooth and Absaroka ranges mostly dry. Ensembles are generally in good agreement as the trough comes ashore, and promote the passage of a cold front during the Tuesday/Wednesday overnight period. Most of the area looks to see some light snow with several inches possible in the favored mountain/foothills areas. Thursday will be drier before another trough moves in from the northwest on Friday morning, which would bring even cooler temps and another chance of some light snow to much of the area. As the second trough moves out Friday evening, some areas of high winds are possible in the western zones. Regarding temperatures - Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s on Tuesday before the cold front and the 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday and Thursday, slightly cooler Friday. Lows will be in the 20s Tuesday night and the teens through the rest of the period. Behringer && .AVIATION... Gusty west winds to 50 kts will continue for areas west of KBIL through the early evening with gusts to 60 kts at KLVM through tonight. Occasional mountain obscuration are possible over the far southwest mountains Sunday morning. Expect VFR to prevail throughout the period. Behringer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 029/045 024/040 027/047 023/031 013/032 010/026 012/033 00/N 00/B 01/U 64/S 11/B 21/B 01/B LVM 032/045 032/047 034/048 022/032 015/034 014/032 017/036 12/S 22/O 35/O 74/S 12/S 21/N 12/S HDN 027/046 019/042 021/049 021/033 011/033 007/027 007/033 00/B 00/B 00/U 55/S 10/B 21/B 01/B MLS 025/046 021/042 020/045 019/027 010/030 007/024 008/031 01/E 00/B 00/B 23/S 10/B 10/B 00/B 4BQ 026/047 023/046 028/054 022/031 015/036 011/027 012/036 00/B 00/B 00/U 14/S 10/B 00/B 00/B BHK 026/047 022/043 024/051 018/027 010/030 007/022 008/033 00/B 00/B 00/U 13/S 10/B 00/B 00/B SHR 023/046 023/046 026/052 021/033 013/036 012/030 012/038 00/B 00/B 00/U 46/S 10/B 21/B 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
850 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of showers will last into this evening as a strong cold front crosses central Pennsylvania. A sharp wind shift and potential wind gusts over 40 mph will accompany the front through early evening. Seasonable temperatures return for later tonight and Sunday. A long stretch of mainly dry and relatively mild weather is expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 845 pm/0145z update... Strong surface cold front was quickly pushing through eastern PA as of this writing. Frontal squall line, with brief heavy downpours and strong wind gusts, should be tracking east of the Lower Susquehanna Valley shortly. Although a general uptick in intensity has occurred, organization of any particular segment of the line has yet to justify any convective warnings. Farther west, post-frontal gusts of 35-45 kt continue in an area of generally strong isallobaric forcing (good pressure rises, along with strong low-level cold air advection featuring a westerly flow well aligned with the axis connecting the maxima in pressure falls/rises). Gusty winds will continue for the rest of the evening before beginning to subside later tonight, as the deep parent low lifts northward through eastern Canada and farther away from the region, thus weakening the isallobaric forcing. From this vantage point, we will likely be able to discontinue the Wind Advisory on schedule at 6z/1 am local time. Previous discussion... 5 pm/22z update... The forecast is in very good shape overall, so just some cosmetic tweaks were made through the evening hours. Strong surface cold front continued to advance eastward early this evening, and as of 5 pm was crossing the Allegheny Plateau just west of Lock Haven, State College, and Altoona. Mostly 35-45 kt gusts have been seen with and just behind the frontal passage. We expect this to largely continue with eastward extent. Across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, temperatures have significantly warmed up and remain well into the 60s. Near-term model soundings (RAP/HRRR) seem to have underplayed this degree of warming some. As a result, there may be a bit more in the way of instability than the models are indicating and consequently we`ve added the mention of isolated thunder in this area from roughly 6-8 pm. It is this region that we`ll be keenly watching for any convective elements to perhaps produce damaging wind gusts of 50+ kt on an isolated basis. Earlier discussion... Several bands of showers will traversing central PA this afternoon, ahead of deepening low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes into northern Ontario. Trailing cold front extending from Warren County to southeast OH as of 1930z will sweep through central PA through late afternoon and early evening before reaching the Mid Atlantic coast by 06 UTC Sunday. The big question leading up to FROPA was how much instability would be present to help mix down potentially damaging wind gusts, and model consensus seems to be winning out as the frontal rain band is extremely narrow over NW PA/E OH and wind gusts are topping out in the 32 to 36 kt range as frontal band heads into more stable air to the east. Will still need to watch this classic high shear low CAPE FROPA closely as front emerges into warm sector over my southeast counties late this afternoon. Highly confident in strong, non-convective wind gusts to 45 mph near and behind the sharp cold frontal passage late afternoon/early evening. An isold 50 kt gusts may be possible over the higher terrain, but main message for high end Wind Advisory remains. Models indicate strong post-frontal 3hr sfc pressure rises on the order of 7-10mb this evening, with well-aligned CAA and WNW flow in the boundary layer. Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast area with max wind gusts most likely between 5 and 11 PM based on HRRR and Bufkit sounding profiles. Behind the front, seasonably colder air arrives with temps dropping back down into the 30-40F range by Sunday morning. A brief period of lake effect/orographic snow showers is likely late tonight, but minimal lake-850mb temp difference and low inversion heights should limit any snow accums to a coating to less than 1 inch. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Conditions rapidly settle down by early Sunday thanks to strong building of upper ridge/surface high east over the east coast Sunday into early next week. Therefore, we have high confidence of fair weather with mainly sunny skies Sunday. MaxTs on Sunday will be -20F to -30F degrees colder than Saturday, but still near seasonal averages most places. Lows Sunday night area again seasonably chilly ranging from upper 20s northwest to lower to middle 30s southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and a building ridge aloft will keep our weather tranquil through the beginning of next week. There is some indication that a backdoor cold front will slip through the region Tuesday or Tuesday night, as a surface high builds across northern New England. Meanwhile, a warm front lifting through the eastern Great Lakes could produce a bit of very light precip over primarily northwestern PA Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area late next the week, with the bulk of guidance pointing towards a Thursday night frontal passage. Ahead of this front, Thursday looks like it could be another anomalously warm day. Scattered rain showers are likely to precede and accompany the front across the region. A brief period of fair and seasonably cooler conditions are expected on Friday behind the front. After that, medium-range guidance suggests that a wave of low pressure will push up the Ohio Valley and push a round of rain across the area Friday night into Saturday, followed by a return to chillier weather next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front will continue to advance across the southeast through 02z, bringing SHRA and gusty westerly winds. The rest of the area is already behind the front, with westerly wind gusts up to 40 kts. The western highlands and northern tier will likely hold onto MVFR cigs tonight with the upsloping westerly flow behind the front. Farther to the east, conds should remain VFR through the night. Sunday will bring decreasing winds (some gusts to 20 kts possible) and VFR conditions across the entire CWA. Outlook... Sun-Tue...VFR. Wed...Mainly VFR, with isolated showers NW. Thu...Showers developing across the west later in the day. && .CLIMATE... Record max temperatures for 12/11 (current forecast): MDT |63 in 1897 (66F) IPT |64 in 1912 (61F) AOO |63 in 1979 (61F) BFD |55 in 1979 & 2020 (60F) STC |65 in 1979 (61F) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Evanego AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
457 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Main highlights with this forecast package are the potential for near critical fire conditions Sunday, and warm and very windy conditions Wednesday. Yesterday`s low pressure system has moved well east of us past the Great Lakes now, while closer to home, high pressure is sliding just south of our area. The upper trough moving east is keeping northwesterly flow aloft for now, though this will transition toward the west for tomorrow as sfc winds back to the southwest. With these low-level winds turning to the west and southwest, not expecting temperatures to drop much overnight as this should allow warmer air to advect into the area. Have temps holding steady around 30 degrees, though if the BL decouples enough, could see some locations fall into the 20s. As we head into the daytime hours and the pressure gradient tightens over the area, this will help temperatures warm further with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds look quite breezy through the day as most locations should gust up to 30-35mph. These conditions set us up for very high fire danger area-wide tomorrow at the least (see fire discussion for more details). By Monday, the area finds itself within southwest flow aloft while a strong upper trough develops off the west coast. This will keep a warming trend going through the first half of the week before lee cyclogenesis develops Tuesday into Wednesday. Record warmth remains possible on Tuesday and likely on Wednesday. As mentioned previously, a LLJ of 60-80 kts is progged to develop and forecast soundings do show potential for winds up to 60mph to mix down to the surface. The cold front associated with the system is expected to sweep across the area late, which could result in a line of thunderstorms in the far eastern portion of the area late Wednesday. However, there remains a possibility for these to develop east of the area after the front moves through, so timing will bear watching as well. There could be another late-week front, but overall relatively cooler temperatures look to set up for the second half of the week with highs in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 457 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Dry air will allow VFR conditions to persist. RAP and NAM forecast soundings show the boundary layer at TOP and MHK decoupling with a steep nocturnal inversion and a 40KT low level jet. Directional shear is marginal, but think speed shear is good enough for a mention of wind shear in the forecast. The boundary layer at FOE is progged to remain a little more mixed with less speed shear. So will leave wind shear out for now and monitor conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 With relative humidity not expected to recover very well overnight (staying as low as 35-50% in many locations), this increases the concern for fuel load per collaboration with fire partners. Additionally, the warmer and dry conditions remaining in place will result in afternoon RH once again dropping to 20-25% across the area while southerly winds gust to 30-35mph. All these factors combined, have opted for a Fire Weather Watch across the entire area for late Sunday morning through the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Wolters FIRE WEATHER...Picha