Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/01/21

National Weather Service Albany NY
930 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A light accumulation of snow is expected across portions of the western Adirondacks tonight as a low pressure system crosses the region. Another low pressure system will bring more widespread precipitation to the area Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Expecting snow to transition to rain Thursday and back to snow as the precipitation tapers off Thursday evening. Our next systems will bring chances for snow showers to the area Friday night into Saturday and again Sunday night and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...No significant changes needed. NYS Mesonet obs indicate 0.05-0.10" liquid (~1" snow) has fallen in some Adirondack sites, with generally a trace to 0.02 elsewhere. Made some minor adjustments to PoPs/QPF grids, but overall forecast in good shape. Most of the snow shower activity should continue to be across the northern half of the area, with best chances for light measurable snow in the higher terrain. Latest HRRR continues to indicate somewhat disorganized lake effect snow showers developing after midnight over the SW Adirondacks, where another inch or two may accumulate, with just dustings elsewhere. .PREVIOUS[0639]...Made some minor changes to expand/increase PoPs across mainly the northern half of the area based on observations and some webcams indicating snow showers reaching the ground across the Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and into the southern Greens early this evening. Will mention a dusting of snow in most of these areas, with 1-2" in the western Adirondacks with some lake enhancement developing by late this evening. Weak upper energy tracking through the region along with some lake effect moisture will bring areas of snow flurries and snow showers to our area this evening. Some dustings will occur in some places with the best chances for an inch or two in the southern Adirondacks, where low level flow off the lakes will bring some snow bands extending into those areas. Some breaks in the clouds are likely in the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and perhaps as far north as the Capital Region well after midnight and toward daybreak. Some clouds may anchor to terrain in the Berkshires, Taconics, southern Green Mountains and eastern Catskills. Temperatures will fall the most where the breaks in the clouds can occur later tonight, and where snow cover exists in the southern Adirondacks, Taconics, Berkshires and southern Green Mountains. Lows in the mid 20s to near 30. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Brief period of weak cold advection to neutral temperature advection Wednesday with gusty west winds in the morning, transitioning to light southwest and south winds toward evening as weak warm advection begins. A mix of clouds and sun with more clouds than sun in areas of terrain. Highs Wednesday around 40 to mid 40s with some 30s higher terrain. The next northern stream upper energy organizes in Canada and warm advection increases through Wednesday night. Boundary layer winds turn west southwest and increase rapidly while mid and high clouds spread across the region. There may be some snow showers into the southern Adirondacks, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills late Wednesday night with increasing isentropic lift and moisture advection. Increasing low level frontogenesis and convergence approaches western areas Thursday morning with increasing chances for snow showers mixing with and changing to rain showers. The rain and snow showers will expand through the southern Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region through the morning, then spread south and east through the afternoon across the rest of the area. There could be some isolated to scattered scattered rain and snow showers Thursday morning in eastern NY and western New England but there could be some periods of thin clouds and filtered sun in the morning, too. The mid Hudson Valley and NW CT may see only isolated to scattered showers until late Thursday afternoon and evening. South winds will be light in the morning but could become gusty late in the afternoon with some of the strong boundary layer winds potentially mixing to the surface. Highs Thursday in the mid 40s to around 50 with around 40 to lower 40s higher terrain. The cold front tracks through the region Thursday evening and night with a changeover of rain showers to snow showers. There could be some dustings in some areas but the better chances for accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday is with the lake effect snow band activity into the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest Friday as cold air spreads across our region. Highs Friday in the upper 30s to mid 40s with upper 20s to mid 30s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The period starts out Friday night with a zonal northwest flow aloft across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Much of the night should be dry, although a few light snow showers may occur late as a fast moving and moisture-starved clipper type system approaches from SE Canada. The surface cyclone is forecast to track SE across northern/central New England on Saturday, with its trailing cold moving across our region. So a few additional snow showers will be possible, especially across higher terrain areas on Saturday. It will turn colder and drier Saturday night into Sunday morning, as a surface anticyclone tracks eastward across our region during this time. Winds should be light at least, although temperatures will be below normal ranging from single digits in the Adirondacks to lower 20s in the Hudson Valley and Litchfield CT. Sunday should remain dry, as the cyclone tracks east to the New England coast and upper level heights rise as well. A southerly flow will develop, especially during the afternoon. The next chance of precip arrives Sunday night as the pattern amplifies in response to a potent/progressive upper level trough tracking from the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Isentropic lift ahead of this system could result in at least scattered snow showers, with some light accumulation possible mainly in favored southerly flow upslope areas. There are differences among the guidance with regards to the main surface cyclone track (ECMWF over upstate NY and GFS across SE Canada), but there is at least loose consensus for the system`s cold front to quickly push eastward across our area on Monday. Temperatures should get warm enough for a tranistion to rain showers in the Hudson Valley and Litchfield CT prior to the cold front passage, with either rain/snow mix or snow showers in the higher terrain. Either way, due to the progressive movement and pedestrian moisture (PWATs not anomalous at this time) available QPF looks light to moderate. So while some mountain snow accumulation is possible, heavy precip does not appear likely. Breezy, cooler and mainly drier conditions expected Monday night into Tuesday in wake of the cold front passage. Some lake effect snow may occur in favored spots in a potential westerly flow regime. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z/Thu...A warm front will lift northward across the region this evening followed by a cold front pushing eastward late tonight into early Wednesday morning. We are currently at mixed VFR/MVFR cigs but a gradual lowering to predominately MVFR is anticipated for most tonight, though IFR cigs cannot be ruled out at times at KGFL/KPSF. An isolated snow shower or flurry cannot be ruled out at any site into early Wednesday morning, which could briefly reduce visibility to MVFR and possibly even IFR for a time, though coverage does not appear to be high enough to include more than VCSH at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Slightly higher confidence for snow showers at KGFL so included a tempo through 04z/Wed. We look to turn to drier conditions and a return to high end MVFR or low end VFR conditions on Wednesday. KPSF may be the last to lift to VFR. Wind will be out of the south to southwest at 4-8 kt through tonight, then shift to the west to southwest at 7-14kt Wednesday with a few higher gusts at KALB/KPSF. Wind will then decrease to 4-8 kt toward 00z/Thu. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated this week. While there may be some light precip over the next few days, most of this will be very light and will be in the form of snow. However, rain is expected Thursday. River and stream levels will remain fairly steady through the week. Some ice will start to develop on some of the lakes, rivers and reservoirs across the high terrain. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The KENX radar will be down through mid December to refurbish and replace the pedestal. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...NAS EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
954 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Radar at 930 pm showing echoes continuing to progress east across IA/MN toward the area. Surface observations showing the precipitation reaching the surface about 1-2 counties west of I-35 in MN, slightly further west in IA. A nice stationary/slow warm front extended along the Highway 20 corridor across IA. GOES water vapor 6.19um showing two distinct stronger waves associated with sharp darkening seen in both eastern SD and ND. RAP analysis indicates two tropopause folds down to about 400 mb and the QVector forcing ahead of these is moderate to strong in the 500-300 mb layer. Combined with strong warm advection in the 925-850 mb, this system has deep forcing. The best combination appears to be north of the warm front across southern MN / eastern SD. Working against it is the dry air in place with 00Z RAOBs at KABR, then located within increasing echo, with still about 6500 ft of dry, unsaturated air below cloud base. It also showed a nice convectively unstable layer near 700mb, and this is seen in the cellular, intense nature to the echoes north of the warm front. Forecast is on track and there was some concern to just how far temperatures would fall this eve influencing precipitation types. Those have now stabilized with southeast MN now warming (wipe of brow). As clouds thicken in WI, expect the same to occur there. With preferable wet-bulb temperature profiles for snow, most areas may begin as SN or SN/RA. WI should see more hours of snow, with mainly rain west and south of La Crosse. No changes to accumulations and with warming temperatures, a slight impact may occur late tonight near and northeast of I-94 with a light snow accum on the colder roads there. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Water vapor satellite imagery exhibits the continual upper-level northwest flow with an embedded pulse of shortwave energy in Manitoba/Saskatchewan. This shortwave is expected to provide the necessary upper-level forcing for a mixed precipitation event tonight into tomorrow for our forecast area. From a top-down perspective, mixed precipitation chances are focused in stout low- level warm air advection containing max Tw near 2C at precipitation onset (~0600Z). Initial precipitation type of snow is more likely in counties north of I-94, where low-level (0-3km) max wet-bulb temperatures remain hospitable (<1C). In northeast Iowa and southeastern Minnesota, any initial frozen precipitation is likely to be short-lived as previously mentioned southwesterly low-level warm advection is quick to raise maximum wet-bulb temperatures to unsustainable conditions. Overall impacts appear to be minimal, with ensemble means for liquid equivalent near 0.10". With snow-to-liquid ratios expected to remain low (4-8:1), have overall forecasted snow amounts of a trace to <1" from the Mississippi River to the northern counties, respectively. As this system passes overnight, upper-level ice introduction wanes and low-level moisture remains, introducing the possibility of freezing drizzle/rain according to some model guidance. With the stout surface warm air, anything widespread seems unlikely, and have kept limited amounts of freezing rain in forecast for now. Likely impacts will be limited in a minute window affecting elevated surfaces such as grassy areas. Low-level warm advection dominates tomorrow`s forecast, with maximum/minimum surface temperatures forecasted nearly 20F above normal for this time of year. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Models still holding onto the progressive, generally northwest flow through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Differences crop up with amplitude of any shortwave ridging/troughing, along with some placment discrepancies. That said, trends have favored keeping the bulk of any pcpn/sensible weather impacts across northern parts of the region- mostly north of I-94. SAT NIGHT-SUN: been watching potential storm system for this period the last few days and the GFS and EC still set on dropping an upper level shortwave trough from western Canada, thru the northern plains and then across the upper mississippi river valley. How strong the west coast ridging, and thus troughing is remains a (the?) big question. This will impact location and pcpn potential/amounts. Latest set of WPC cluster analysis continuing to paint a couple ways this could flesh out: 1) stronger/amplified upper level ridge to the west with deeper/stronger trough in the east and, 2) more flatten version of the ridge/trough setup, similar to what is expected through the better part of this week. The bulk of the model members side with the anomalous ridge building off the west coast, with one cluster pushing any shortwave activity just north of the local area, the other brings it through. Smaller subset (mostly GFS) would develop the ridge farther east, suggesting milder/drier conditions for the region. While these trends have been in the models for several days now, which scenario is favored has varied, lowering confidence in how this ultimately plays out. Latest deterministic runs of the GFS and EC bring a positively tilted, quick moving shortwave across the region, with most of the related pcpn impacts along/north of I-90. Temps would be cold enough in this scenario for (mainly) snow and the potential for several inches of accumulation. Will continue to run with the model blend for now. Think probabilities favor getting some snow across northern parts of the forecast area, but amounts and total coverage remain murky. TEMPS: after another very mild day Thu, temps look to take a dip back to the sensible normals for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 VFR conditions degrade to MVFR overnight tonight as mixed precipitation frontal boundary traverses from west to east. Initial precipitation type onset of snow expected to quickly turn to rain as low-level warm air advection creates inhospitable conditions for frozen precipitation. Low-level wind shear expected late tonight at LSE with frontal passage with light surface winds. Expect RST surface winds to remain elevated, therefore have not included low- level wind shear there. Conditions return VFR tomorrow morning from west to east in the wake of the surface frontal boundary. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Baumgardt SHORT TERM...JAR LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION.....JAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
541 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/ Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Key Messages: -Precip chances tonight into Wednesday morning -Warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday -Cool down and windy early next week Tonight into Thursday...Clipper system to cut across ND into MN late tonight into tomorrow morning and bring enough lift and moisture for some rain potential over the northern parts of the CWA. Timing looks to be as early as 05z over the northwest for rain but more likely to develop/spread b/t 06-10z and then quickly pushing east by 12z Wednesday. QPF remains under a tenth across the northeast sections and even that is on the high-end. RAP soundings at AXA, MCW, to ALO suggest ice introduction but enough of a warm layer below 800mb for precipitation to fall as rain. There might be a short stint around MCW to ALO areas when a rain/snow mix is possible where slightly stronger forcing in the dendritic layer may cause the column to cool just enough to not completely melt the dendrites before reaching the surface. At any rate, not anticipating much, if any accumulation if this does occur. Clipper system quickly moves east and provides some westerly flow to develop throughout the day tomorrow. There looks to be some residual cloud cover hanging around over parts of the state and may hinder the temps a bit. Still, went at or above guidance for high temperatures Wednesday with the good downslope setting up and a dry airmass moving into place. Another warm day is likely for much of the forecast area on Thursday ahead of a cold front to push through the state. Lower confidence in the max temps across the north as the CAA may develop early enough for early morning high and then temps steady/drop through the rest of the day. Higher confidence with the max temps south of Highway 30 to the Missouri border as there looks to be time to warm up before the fropa. Friday through Monday...Surface high pressure builds into the region Thursday night and continue to strengthen through Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS suggest a surface low to eject out of the Northern Rockies across the Dakotas on Sunday. For now, the precipitation looks to develop east and north of the surface low with Iowa getting dry punched during the day Sunday. A sharp cold front sweeps through Sunday night and Monday is shaping up to be a brisk day with wind gusts over 30 knots possible. Trended colder as well with temperatures as 850mb drop to -15C to -18C on Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Surface high pressure has kept skies clear this afternoon and early evening. There is a wave of energy coming out of the northern Plains that will produce cloud cover across central and northern portions of Iowa. This may also produce some scattered light precipitation across northern Iowa. For now, will leave VCSH in the northern TAF sites. Radar trends will be monitored closely to determine if rain/snow is likely to occur at the terminal. The cloud bases coming in from the northwest will mainly be VFR, with a few hours of MVFR possible. Light rain and mist may send visibility into MVFR for a brief period, but overall very light in nature. Winds will also be calm through most of the 00z TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Podrazik AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 .AVIATION... Southerly lower level flow brings a return of lower level moisture and restrictions to CIGs/VSBYs to TAF sites. VFR flying conditions this evening, then IFR/LIFR CIGs/VSBYs develop overnight at the I-35 sites and at KDRT early Wednesday morning. CIGs/VSBYs mix to MVFR mid morning, then to VFR by midday. Winds of less than 10 KTs can be expected. Some models bring a brief period of northwesterly flow to KDRT in the afternoon, however, for now will keep it southeasterly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... Another excellent afternoon across south central Texas with plenty of sunshine with thin upper level clouds passing overhead. High`s are forecast to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s while the wind flow comes from the south over most places. Clouds will begin to develop and spread all over of south central Texas this evening into the overnight and continuing through Wednesday morning. Area forecast soundings, and several HiRes models including the HRRR and NBM support this solution. Also, the same HiRes models suggest for patchy to areas of fog and even areas of dense fog across the Coastal Plains late tonight/Wednesday morning. We will monitor this situation closely later tonight in case of having to issue an Special Weather Statement like this morning or even a Dense Fog Advisory. Time will tell. The winds will become light and even calm at times overnight allowing limited mixing near the surface. The fog should lift around 10 am over most areas. Overnight lows across the area should range from the upper 40s to mid 50s which are around 5 to 10 degrees higher than this morning based on the RTP (Morning Temperature and Precipitation Summary) product. After a cloudy morning on Wednesday expect clouds to scatter out first across the eastern half of the areas around noon and 2 pm for areas along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. With the continuation of southerly flow and increased moisture advecting into the area, highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s. Once the evening comes around on Wednesday expected a similar pattern as of tonight with clouds developing across the area into the overnight hours. Overnight lows for late Wednesday/Thurs morning are expected to range from the lower to mid 50s across most areas to near 60 over parts of the southwest portion of south central Texas. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... The upper air pattern by Thursday will show a cutoff low west of Baja and an upper ridge axis from the northern Gulf extending nearly due west over into the desert SW. This will still be providing for mild early Dec weather with highs on Thu in the middle to upper 70s, nearly 10 degrees above avg in some spots. The southerly winds will keep plenty of moisture around with dewpoints near 60. Will likely be battling some fog issues daily throughout the extended until some drier air comes down into the region. Extended models are now keying in on a short wave trough that will move NE out of Mexico and cross the CWA and the southern half of Texas on Friday. While NBM was mainly dry on Fri, input some 20-30 pop across central and eastern areas along with mention of isolated thunder as models show support with their LI/CAPE forecast. WPC QPF is not very robust but could see some areas up to 0.25 inches. Wave will exit fairly quickly with pop ending over the east late on Friday. Rest of the extended is fairly low confidence. Over the weekend it looks like an upper low will either approach or remain to our W/SW over Mexico and a weak cold front will slide through on the heels of Friday`s S/W. The remaining SW flow aloft will set up that typical pattern of partly to mostly cloudy overrunning, and some possible weak upper waves coming across generating some light QPF. Hard to pinpoint any real good time frame for rain over the weekend and into early next week before another stronger front pushes through on Monday. Went mainly with NBM POP over the weekend into early next week but you will likely see an increase a bit in the coming forecasts as the timing of the fronts and the upper low to our W/SW get better into focus. Temps will remain mild through the extended with the coolest day likely Monday behind the stronger front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 53 75 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 76 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 76 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 - Burnet Muni Airport 52 74 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 53 76 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 52 75 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 52 76 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 51 75 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 - La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 76 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 54 75 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 55 77 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...04 Long-Term...Oaks
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 .DISCUSSION... Current...Clear skies will round out the month of November. For the overnight period, dewpoints have crept up over the past 12h and HRRR LAV suites indicate potential for some ground fog to develop away from the immediate coastal areas. I suspect the fog will largely be ground fog with limited vertical extent with reductions in vsby 3-4 miles after 4 AM through daybreak in affected locations with reductions to 1 mile or less possible near local drainages and low spots. modified prev disc... Wed...Light winds will veer from the north to the east as high pressure moves over the western Atlantic. Dry conditions will remain over land although a few showers could be possible over the local Atlantic waters as patches of moderate moisture reach the area. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with some low clouds moving toward the coast on Wed as the aforementioned moisture moves in. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight but still dropping to the upper 40s for rural locations across the interior and lower 50s elsewhere. And a few degrees warmer too for Wed with highs in the mid-upper 70s. Wednesday Night-Saturday...Zonal flow aloft will yield to a fast and weak moving shortwave that will sweep through region Wednesday night into Thursday. The longwave pattern will attempt to become meridional as the trough deepens southeastward across eastern CONUS. However, the southern branch of the upper-level jet will quickly outrun the trough causing it to quickly pivot northeast as ridging builds upstream of east-central Florida. With the lack of of upper- level support and sufficient moisture with precipitable water values remaining around or below 1 inch, only isolated showers are expected over the local Atlantic waters. Weak high pressure will build over the Gulf and slowly move eastward through the beginning of the weekend. Persistent zonal flow will lead to a continued pattern of mostly dry conditions with weak fast moving disturbances lacking support and moisture to produce decent chances for rain. Highs will remain in the low 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper 40s to low 60s. Another weak trough will then move into the region by the end of the weekend as high pressure breaks down over Florida. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions tonight into Wed morning with low clouds moving in towards the coastal sites after mid-morning. Local reductions to vsby in BR/MIFG 3-5Sm psbl FM 09z-14Z. && .MARINE... Tonight...High pressure over the southeast U.S. will keep the local winds light and gentle tonight shifting from the NE. Seas 2-4 ft. Wednesday-Saturday... Winds will remain light but erratic at times through the period as multiple weak disturbances move through the region. A few isolated showers, especially over the Gulf Stream can`t be ruled out Wednesday night into Thursday and again on saturday. Light northwest flow will gradually veer to the northeast. Expect seas around 1-3ft through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather conditions will continue with no critical wind or relative humidity concerns. Expect low dispersion Wed. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ JP/KR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 The recent CAM guidance is indicating similar trends as advertised by the Canadian and European model guidance during the past couple of days, albeit slightly different placement of the shortwave moving through the area. The HREF (High Resolution Ensemble), HRRR and High Resolution NAM- WRF ARW guidance appear to enhance the potential for extremely isolated precipitation tonight (mainly isolated sprinkles of rain)between 11 am 3 am in the warm advection conveyor belt aloft, as well as and light showers between 6 am and 1 pm along the I-64 corridor in SE IL/SW IN and the tri-state area as the shortwave sharpens/deepens over the WFO PAH CWA. Rainfall amounts will likely remain well below one tenth of an inch, closer to 0.01 to 0.03 of an inch. Given the uncertainty of the available moisture, originally discounted any rain chances in yesterday`s package, but considering the impressive lift/moisture/saturation of the layer aloft, could not avoid a mention of showers and light QPF potential late tonight and early Wednesday. Utilized a combination of the High Resolution CAM guidance, Canadian and European guidance to reflect the translation/intensification of this fast moving shortwave and precipitation efficiency. Following the passage of this shortwave Wednesday afternoon, as previously discussed, the guidance depicts significant warm advection in advance of the approaching ridge. The North American and European Ensembles show at least 1.5-2 Standard Deviation increase in temperatures centered across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Thursday. With abundant sunshine, am anticipating some near record or record temperatures may be in jeopardy for a few location in southeast MO and southwest IL. Records may be in jeopardy at Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, and Carbondale Illinois. Provided below are the current record high temperatures on hand for this Thursday, December 2nd. Most locations will not even be close to records, but a couple locations may tie or break records, depending on forecast temperatures. Current Max Temperature Records for December 2nd: Evansville IN - 77 in 1982 Paducah KY - 77 in 1982 Cape Girardeau MO - 76 in 1982 Carbondale IL - 71 in 1982***most likely to be tied or broken*** Poplar Bluff MO - 73 in 1956 ***most likely to be tied or broken*** .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 One more warm and dry day is expected on Friday ahead of an approaching storm system over the weekend. Afternoon highs should range from the middle 60s up along I-64 to around 70 along the TN and AR borders. In the upper levels, our northwest flow will switch to more of a split flow. This type of split flow makes the timing and placement of pieces of energy moving through it and their associated precipitation chances very difficult. One small area of energy will bring low chances for rain late Friday night to our southern counties. As the upper level flow becomes oriented more from southwest to northeast, moisture will increase and areas of rain will develop ahead of a cold front that will push through the region late on Sunday. While high pressure dives in from the northern plans on Monday, the forecast remains very unsettled. A storm system approaches from the west giving us yet another chance for rain on Tuesday. While there are several chances for rain, precipitation totals will remain less than 1/4 inch. && .AVIATION... Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 The approach and passage of a weak upper level disturbance and surface warm front on Wednesday will result in increasing mid level clouds tonight into Wednesday. Most bases will remain at or above 10 kft, but a brief period of 4-5 kft bases is possible from KMVN to KEVV and KOWB. While most of the area should remain dry, isolated/scattered light showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out late tonight into Wednesday, especially across the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. Light east/southeast winds tonight will veer to the south/southwest at 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday with frontal passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...RJP