Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/01/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
930 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021
A light accumulation of snow is expected across portions of the
western Adirondacks tonight as a low pressure system crosses
the region. Another low pressure system will bring more
widespread precipitation to the area Wednesday night into
Thursday evening. Expecting snow to transition to rain Thursday
and back to snow as the precipitation tapers off Thursday
evening. Our next systems will bring chances for snow showers to
the area Friday night into Saturday and again Sunday night and
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...No significant changes needed. NYS Mesonet obs
indicate 0.05-0.10" liquid (~1" snow) has fallen in some
Adirondack sites, with generally a trace to 0.02 elsewhere. Made
some minor adjustments to PoPs/QPF grids, but overall forecast
in good shape. Most of the snow shower activity should continue
to be across the northern half of the area, with best chances
for light measurable snow in the higher terrain. Latest HRRR
continues to indicate somewhat disorganized lake effect snow
showers developing after midnight over the SW Adirondacks, where
another inch or two may accumulate, with just dustings
.PREVIOUS...Made some minor changes to expand/increase
PoPs across mainly the northern half of the area based on
observations and some webcams indicating snow showers reaching
the ground across the Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and into
the southern Greens early this evening. Will mention a dusting
of snow in most of these areas, with 1-2" in the western
Adirondacks with some lake enhancement developing by late this
Weak upper energy tracking through the region along with some
lake effect moisture will bring areas of snow flurries and snow
showers to our area this evening. Some dustings will occur in
some places with the best chances for an inch or two in the
southern Adirondacks, where low level flow off the lakes will
bring some snow bands extending into those areas.
Some breaks in the clouds are likely in the mid Hudson Valley,
NW CT and perhaps as far north as the Capital Region well after
midnight and toward daybreak. Some clouds may anchor to terrain
in the Berkshires, Taconics, southern Green Mountains and
eastern Catskills. Temperatures will fall the most where the
breaks in the clouds can occur later tonight, and where snow
cover exists in the southern Adirondacks, Taconics, Berkshires
and southern Green Mountains. Lows in the mid 20s to near 30.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief period of weak cold advection to neutral temperature
advection Wednesday with gusty west winds in the morning,
transitioning to light southwest and south winds toward evening
as weak warm advection begins. A mix of clouds and sun with more
clouds than sun in areas of terrain. Highs Wednesday around 40
to mid 40s with some 30s higher terrain.
The next northern stream upper energy organizes in Canada and
warm advection increases through Wednesday night. Boundary layer
winds turn west southwest and increase rapidly while mid and high
clouds spread across the region. There may be some snow showers
into the southern Adirondacks, Schoharie Valley and eastern
Catskills late Wednesday night with increasing isentropic lift
and moisture advection.
Increasing low level frontogenesis and convergence approaches
western areas Thursday morning with increasing chances for snow
showers mixing with and changing to rain showers. The rain and
snow showers will expand through the southern Adirondacks and
Lake George Saratoga Region through the morning, then spread
south and east through the afternoon across the rest of the
There could be some isolated to scattered scattered rain and
snow showers Thursday morning in eastern NY and western New
England but there could be some periods of thin clouds and
filtered sun in the morning, too. The mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT may see only isolated to scattered showers until late
Thursday afternoon and evening. South winds will be light in the
morning but could become gusty late in the afternoon with some
of the strong boundary layer winds potentially mixing to the
surface. Highs Thursday in the mid 40s to around 50 with around
40 to lower 40s higher terrain.
The cold front tracks through the region Thursday evening and
night with a changeover of rain showers to snow showers. There
could be some dustings in some areas but the better chances for
accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday is with the lake
effect snow band activity into the southern Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley. Winds will be gusty from the west and
northwest Friday as cold air spreads across our region. Highs
Friday in the upper 30s to mid 40s with upper 20s to mid 30s
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period starts out Friday night with a zonal northwest flow
aloft across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Much of the night
should be dry, although a few light snow showers may occur late
as a fast moving and moisture-starved clipper type system
approaches from SE Canada. The surface cyclone is forecast to
track SE across northern/central New England on Saturday, with
its trailing cold moving across our region. So a few additional
snow showers will be possible, especially across higher terrain
areas on Saturday.
It will turn colder and drier Saturday night into Sunday
morning, as a surface anticyclone tracks eastward across our
region during this time. Winds should be light at least,
although temperatures will be below normal ranging from single
digits in the Adirondacks to lower 20s in the Hudson Valley and
Litchfield CT. Sunday should remain dry, as the cyclone tracks
east to the New England coast and upper level heights rise as
well. A southerly flow will develop, especially during the
The next chance of precip arrives Sunday night as the pattern
amplifies in response to a potent/progressive upper level trough
tracking from the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes.
Isentropic lift ahead of this system could result in at least
scattered snow showers, with some light accumulation possible
mainly in favored southerly flow upslope areas.
There are differences among the guidance with regards to the
main surface cyclone track (ECMWF over upstate NY and GFS across
SE Canada), but there is at least loose consensus for the
system`s cold front to quickly push eastward across our area on
Monday. Temperatures should get warm enough for a tranistion to
rain showers in the Hudson Valley and Litchfield CT prior to the
cold front passage, with either rain/snow mix or snow showers
in the higher terrain. Either way, due to the progressive
movement and pedestrian moisture (PWATs not anomalous at this
time) available QPF looks light to moderate. So while some
mountain snow accumulation is possible, heavy precip does not
Breezy, cooler and mainly drier conditions expected Monday
night into Tuesday in wake of the cold front passage. Some lake
effect snow may occur in favored spots in a potential westerly
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z/Thu...A warm front will lift northward across the
region this evening followed by a cold front pushing eastward
late tonight into early Wednesday morning. We are currently at
mixed VFR/MVFR cigs but a gradual lowering to predominately MVFR
is anticipated for most tonight, though IFR cigs cannot be
ruled out at times at KGFL/KPSF. An isolated snow shower or
flurry cannot be ruled out at any site into early Wednesday
morning, which could briefly reduce visibility to MVFR and
possibly even IFR for a time, though coverage does not appear to
be high enough to include more than VCSH at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
Slightly higher confidence for snow showers at KGFL so included
a tempo through 04z/Wed.
We look to turn to drier conditions and a return to high end
MVFR or low end VFR conditions on Wednesday. KPSF may be the
last to lift to VFR.
Wind will be out of the south to southwest at 4-8 kt through
tonight, then shift to the west to southwest at 7-14kt Wednesday
with a few higher gusts at KALB/KPSF. Wind will then decrease
to 4-8 kt toward 00z/Thu.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
No hydrologic issues are anticipated this week. While there may
be some light precip over the next few days, most of this will
be very light and will be in the form of snow. However, rain is
expected Thursday. River and stream levels will remain fairly
steady through the week. Some ice will start to develop on some
of the lakes, rivers and reservoirs across the high terrain.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
The KENX radar will be down through mid December to refurbish
and replace the pedestal.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
954 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Issued at 953 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Radar at 930 pm showing echoes continuing to progress east across
IA/MN toward the area. Surface observations showing the
precipitation reaching the surface about 1-2 counties west of I-35
in MN, slightly further west in IA. A nice stationary/slow warm
front extended along the Highway 20 corridor across IA. GOES water
vapor 6.19um showing two distinct stronger waves associated with
sharp darkening seen in both eastern SD and ND. RAP analysis
indicates two tropopause folds down to about 400 mb and the
QVector forcing ahead of these is moderate to strong in the
500-300 mb layer. Combined with strong warm advection in the
925-850 mb, this system has deep forcing. The best combination
appears to be north of the warm front across southern MN / eastern
SD. Working against it is the dry air in place with 00Z RAOBs at
KABR, then located within increasing echo, with still about 6500
ft of dry, unsaturated air below cloud base. It also showed a
nice convectively unstable layer near 700mb, and this is seen in
the cellular, intense nature to the echoes north of the warm
Forecast is on track and there was some concern to just how far
temperatures would fall this eve influencing precipitation types.
Those have now stabilized with southeast MN now warming (wipe of
brow). As clouds thicken in WI, expect the same to occur there.
With preferable wet-bulb temperature profiles for snow, most areas
may begin as SN or SN/RA. WI should see more hours of snow, with
mainly rain west and south of La Crosse. No changes to
accumulations and with warming temperatures, a slight impact may
occur late tonight near and northeast of I-94 with a light snow
accum on the colder roads there.
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Water vapor satellite imagery exhibits the continual upper-level
northwest flow with an embedded pulse of shortwave energy in
Manitoba/Saskatchewan. This shortwave is expected to provide the
necessary upper-level forcing for a mixed precipitation event
tonight into tomorrow for our forecast area. From a top-down
perspective, mixed precipitation chances are focused in stout low-
level warm air advection containing max Tw near 2C at precipitation
onset (~0600Z). Initial precipitation type of snow is more likely in
counties north of I-94, where low-level (0-3km) max wet-bulb
temperatures remain hospitable (<1C). In northeast Iowa and
southeastern Minnesota, any initial frozen precipitation is likely to
be short-lived as previously mentioned southwesterly low-level warm
advection is quick to raise maximum wet-bulb temperatures to
Overall impacts appear to be minimal, with ensemble means for liquid
equivalent near 0.10". With snow-to-liquid ratios expected to remain
low (4-8:1), have overall forecasted snow amounts of a trace to <1"
from the Mississippi River to the northern counties, respectively.
As this system passes overnight, upper-level ice introduction wanes
and low-level moisture remains, introducing the possibility of
freezing drizzle/rain according to some model guidance. With the
stout surface warm air, anything widespread seems unlikely, and have
kept limited amounts of freezing rain in forecast for now. Likely
impacts will be limited in a minute window affecting elevated
surfaces such as grassy areas.
Low-level warm advection dominates tomorrow`s forecast, with
maximum/minimum surface temperatures forecasted nearly 20F above
normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Models still holding onto the progressive, generally northwest flow
through the weekend and into the early part of next week.
Differences crop up with amplitude of any shortwave
ridging/troughing, along with some placment discrepancies. That
said, trends have favored keeping the bulk of any pcpn/sensible
weather impacts across northern parts of the region- mostly north of
SAT NIGHT-SUN: been watching potential storm system for this period
the last few days and the GFS and EC still set on dropping an upper
level shortwave trough from western Canada, thru the northern plains
and then across the upper mississippi river valley. How strong the
west coast ridging, and thus troughing is remains a (the?) big
question. This will impact location and pcpn potential/amounts.
Latest set of WPC cluster analysis continuing to paint a couple ways
this could flesh out: 1) stronger/amplified upper level ridge to
the west with deeper/stronger trough in the east and, 2) more
flatten version of the ridge/trough setup, similar to what is
expected through the better part of this week. The bulk of the model
members side with the anomalous ridge building off the west coast,
with one cluster pushing any shortwave activity just north of the
local area, the other brings it through. Smaller subset (mostly GFS)
would develop the ridge farther east, suggesting milder/drier
conditions for the region. While these trends have been in the
models for several days now, which scenario is favored has varied,
lowering confidence in how this ultimately plays out. Latest
deterministic runs of the GFS and EC bring a positively tilted, quick
moving shortwave across the region, with most of the related pcpn
impacts along/north of I-90. Temps would be cold enough in this
scenario for (mainly) snow and the potential for several inches of
Will continue to run with the model blend for now. Think
probabilities favor getting some snow across northern parts of the
forecast area, but amounts and total coverage remain murky.
TEMPS: after another very mild day Thu, temps look to take a dip
back to the sensible normals for the weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
VFR conditions degrade to MVFR overnight tonight as mixed
precipitation frontal boundary traverses from west to east. Initial
precipitation type onset of snow expected to quickly turn to rain as
low-level warm air advection creates inhospitable conditions for
frozen precipitation. Low-level wind shear expected late tonight at
LSE with frontal passage with light surface winds. Expect RST
surface winds to remain elevated, therefore have not included low-
level wind shear there. Conditions return VFR tomorrow morning from
west to east in the wake of the surface frontal boundary.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
541 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
-Precip chances tonight into Wednesday morning
-Warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
-Cool down and windy early next week
Tonight into Thursday...Clipper system to cut across ND into MN
late tonight into tomorrow morning and bring enough lift and
moisture for some rain potential over the northern parts of the
CWA. Timing looks to be as early as 05z over the northwest for
rain but more likely to develop/spread b/t 06-10z and then quickly
pushing east by 12z Wednesday. QPF remains under a tenth across
the northeast sections and even that is on the high-end. RAP
soundings at AXA, MCW, to ALO suggest ice introduction but enough
of a warm layer below 800mb for precipitation to fall as rain.
There might be a short stint around MCW to ALO areas when a
rain/snow mix is possible where slightly stronger forcing in the
dendritic layer may cause the column to cool just enough to not
completely melt the dendrites before reaching the surface. At any
rate, not anticipating much, if any accumulation if this does
Clipper system quickly moves east and provides some westerly flow
to develop throughout the day tomorrow. There looks to be some
residual cloud cover hanging around over parts of the state and
may hinder the temps a bit. Still, went at or above guidance for
high temperatures Wednesday with the good downslope setting up and
a dry airmass moving into place. Another warm day is likely for
much of the forecast area on Thursday ahead of a cold front to
push through the state. Lower confidence in the max temps across
the north as the CAA may develop early enough for early morning
high and then temps steady/drop through the rest of the day.
Higher confidence with the max temps south of Highway 30 to the
Missouri border as there looks to be time to warm up before the
Friday through Monday...Surface high pressure builds into the
region Thursday night and continue to strengthen through
Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS suggest a surface low to eject out of
the Northern Rockies across the Dakotas on Sunday. For now, the
precipitation looks to develop east and north of the surface low
with Iowa getting dry punched during the day Sunday. A sharp cold
front sweeps through Sunday night and Monday is shaping up to be a
brisk day with wind gusts over 30 knots possible. Trended colder
as well with temperatures as 850mb drop to -15C to -18C on Monday
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Surface high pressure has kept skies clear this afternoon and
early evening. There is a wave of energy coming out of the
northern Plains that will produce cloud cover across central and
northern portions of Iowa. This may also produce some scattered
light precipitation across northern Iowa. For now, will leave VCSH
in the northern TAF sites. Radar trends will be monitored closely
to determine if rain/snow is likely to occur at the terminal. The
cloud bases coming in from the northwest will mainly be VFR, with
a few hours of MVFR possible. Light rain and mist may send
visibility into MVFR for a brief period, but overall very light in
nature. Winds will also be calm through most of the 00z TAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Southerly lower level flow brings a return of lower level moisture
and restrictions to CIGs/VSBYs to TAF sites. VFR flying conditions
this evening, then IFR/LIFR CIGs/VSBYs develop overnight at the I-35
sites and at KDRT early Wednesday morning. CIGs/VSBYs mix to MVFR
mid morning, then to VFR by midday. Winds of less than 10 KTs can be
expected. Some models bring a brief period of northwesterly flow to
KDRT in the afternoon, however, for now will keep it southeasterly.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Another excellent afternoon across south central Texas with plenty
of sunshine with thin upper level clouds passing overhead. High`s
are forecast to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s while the wind flow
comes from the south over most places. Clouds will begin to develop
and spread all over of south central Texas this evening into the
overnight and continuing through Wednesday morning. Area forecast
soundings, and several HiRes models including the HRRR and NBM
support this solution.
Also, the same HiRes models suggest for patchy to areas of fog and
even areas of dense fog across the Coastal Plains late
tonight/Wednesday morning. We will monitor this situation closely
later tonight in case of having to issue an Special Weather
Statement like this morning or even a Dense Fog Advisory. Time will
tell. The winds will become light and even calm at times overnight
allowing limited mixing near the surface. The fog should lift around
10 am over most areas. Overnight lows across the area should range
from the upper 40s to mid 50s which are around 5 to 10 degrees
higher than this morning based on the RTP (Morning Temperature and
Precipitation Summary) product.
After a cloudy morning on Wednesday expect clouds to scatter out
first across the eastern half of the areas around noon and 2 pm for
areas along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. With the
continuation of southerly flow and increased moisture advecting into
the area, highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s.
Once the evening comes around on Wednesday expected a similar
pattern as of tonight with clouds developing across the area into
the overnight hours. Overnight lows for late Wednesday/Thurs morning
are expected to range from the lower to mid 50s across most areas to
near 60 over parts of the southwest portion of south central Texas.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The upper air pattern by Thursday will show a cutoff low west of Baja
and an upper ridge axis from the northern Gulf extending nearly due
west over into the desert SW. This will still be providing for mild
early Dec weather with highs on Thu in the middle to upper 70s,
nearly 10 degrees above avg in some spots. The southerly winds will
keep plenty of moisture around with dewpoints near 60. Will likely
be battling some fog issues daily throughout the extended until some
drier air comes down into the region. Extended models are now keying
in on a short wave trough that will move NE out of Mexico and cross
the CWA and the southern half of Texas on Friday. While NBM was
mainly dry on Fri, input some 20-30 pop across central and eastern
areas along with mention of isolated thunder as models show support
with their LI/CAPE forecast. WPC QPF is not very robust but could see
some areas up to 0.25 inches. Wave will exit fairly quickly with pop
ending over the east late on Friday.
Rest of the extended is fairly low confidence. Over the weekend it
looks like an upper low will either approach or remain to our W/SW
over Mexico and a weak cold front will slide through on the heels of
Friday`s S/W. The remaining SW flow aloft will set up that typical
pattern of partly to mostly cloudy overrunning, and some possible
weak upper waves coming across generating some light QPF. Hard to
pinpoint any real good time frame for rain over the weekend and into
early next week before another stronger front pushes through on
Monday. Went mainly with NBM POP over the weekend into early next
week but you will likely see an increase a bit in the coming
forecasts as the timing of the fronts and the upper low to our W/SW
get better into focus. Temps will remain mild through the extended
with the coolest day likely Monday behind the stronger front.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 53 75 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 76 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 76 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 52 74 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 53 76 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 52 75 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 52 76 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 51 75 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 76 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 54 75 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 55 77 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021
Current...Clear skies will round out the month of November. For the
overnight period, dewpoints have crept up over the past 12h and HRRR
LAV suites indicate potential for some ground fog to develop away
from the immediate coastal areas. I suspect the fog will largely be
ground fog with limited vertical extent with reductions in vsby 3-4
miles after 4 AM through daybreak in affected locations with
reductions to 1 mile or less possible near local drainages and low
modified prev disc...
Wed...Light winds will veer from the north to the east as high
pressure moves over the western Atlantic. Dry conditions will remain
over land although a few showers could be possible over the local
Atlantic waters as patches of moderate moisture reach the area.
Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with some low clouds moving
toward the coast on Wed as the aforementioned moisture moves in.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight but still dropping
to the upper 40s for rural locations across the interior and lower
50s elsewhere. And a few degrees warmer too for Wed with highs in
the mid-upper 70s.
Wednesday Night-Saturday...Zonal flow aloft will yield to a fast and
weak moving shortwave that will sweep through region Wednesday night
into Thursday. The longwave pattern will attempt to become
meridional as the trough deepens southeastward across eastern CONUS.
However, the southern branch of the upper-level jet will quickly
outrun the trough causing it to quickly pivot northeast as ridging
builds upstream of east-central Florida. With the lack of of upper-
level support and sufficient moisture with precipitable water values
remaining around or below 1 inch, only isolated showers are expected
over the local Atlantic waters.
Weak high pressure will build over the Gulf and slowly move eastward
through the beginning of the weekend. Persistent zonal flow will
lead to a continued pattern of mostly dry conditions with weak fast
moving disturbances lacking support and moisture to produce decent
chances for rain. Highs will remain in the low 70s to low 80s with
lows in the upper 40s to low 60s. Another weak trough will then move
into the region by the end of the weekend as high pressure breaks
down over Florida.
VFR conditions tonight into Wed morning with low clouds moving in
towards the coastal sites after mid-morning. Local reductions to
vsby in BR/MIFG 3-5Sm psbl FM 09z-14Z.
Tonight...High pressure over the southeast U.S. will keep the local
winds light and gentle tonight shifting from the NE. Seas 2-4 ft.
Wednesday-Saturday... Winds will remain light but erratic at times
through the period as multiple weak disturbances move through the
region. A few isolated showers, especially over the Gulf Stream
can`t be ruled out Wednesday night into Thursday and again on
saturday. Light northwest flow will gradually veer to the northeast.
Expect seas around 1-3ft through the period.
Dry weather conditions will continue with no critical wind or
relative humidity concerns. Expect low dispersion Wed.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
The recent CAM guidance is indicating similar trends as advertised
by the Canadian and European model guidance during the past couple
of days, albeit slightly different placement of the shortwave moving
through the area.
The HREF (High Resolution Ensemble), HRRR and High Resolution NAM-
WRF ARW guidance appear to enhance the potential for extremely
isolated precipitation tonight (mainly isolated sprinkles of
rain)between 11 am 3 am in the warm advection conveyor belt
aloft, as well as and light showers between 6 am and 1 pm along
the I-64 corridor in SE IL/SW IN and the tri-state area as the
shortwave sharpens/deepens over the WFO PAH CWA. Rainfall amounts
will likely remain well below one tenth of an inch, closer to 0.01
to 0.03 of an inch.
Given the uncertainty of the available moisture, originally
discounted any rain chances in yesterday`s package, but considering
the impressive lift/moisture/saturation of the layer aloft, could
not avoid a mention of showers and light QPF potential late tonight
and early Wednesday. Utilized a combination of the High
Resolution CAM guidance, Canadian and European guidance to reflect
the translation/intensification of this fast moving shortwave and
Following the passage of this shortwave Wednesday afternoon, as
previously discussed, the guidance depicts significant warm
advection in advance of the approaching ridge. The North American
and European Ensembles show at least 1.5-2 Standard Deviation
increase in temperatures centered across southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois on Thursday. With abundant sunshine, am
anticipating some near record or record temperatures may be in
jeopardy for a few location in southeast MO and southwest IL.
Records may be in jeopardy at Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, and
Carbondale Illinois. Provided below are the current record high
temperatures on hand for this Thursday, December 2nd. Most
locations will not even be close to records, but a couple locations
may tie or break records, depending on forecast temperatures.
Current Max Temperature Records for December 2nd:
Evansville IN - 77 in 1982
Paducah KY - 77 in 1982
Cape Girardeau MO - 76 in 1982
Carbondale IL - 71 in 1982***most likely to be tied or broken***
Poplar Bluff MO - 73 in 1956 ***most likely to be tied or broken***
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
One more warm and dry day is expected on Friday ahead of an
approaching storm system over the weekend. Afternoon highs should
range from the middle 60s up along I-64 to around 70 along the TN
and AR borders. In the upper levels, our northwest flow will
switch to more of a split flow. This type of split flow makes the
timing and placement of pieces of energy moving through it and
their associated precipitation chances very difficult.
One small area of energy will bring low chances for rain late Friday
night to our southern counties. As the upper level flow becomes
oriented more from southwest to northeast, moisture will increase
and areas of rain will develop ahead of a cold front that will push
through the region late on Sunday.
While high pressure dives in from the northern plans on Monday, the
forecast remains very unsettled. A storm system approaches from the
west giving us yet another chance for rain on Tuesday. While there
are several chances for rain, precipitation totals will remain less
than 1/4 inch.
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
The approach and passage of a weak upper level disturbance and
surface warm front on Wednesday will result in increasing mid
level clouds tonight into Wednesday. Most bases will remain at or
above 10 kft, but a brief period of 4-5 kft bases is possible
from KMVN to KEVV and KOWB. While most of the area should remain
dry, isolated/scattered light showers or sprinkles cannot be
ruled out late tonight into Wednesday, especially across the
northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. Light east/southeast
winds tonight will veer to the south/southwest at 5 to 10 knots on
Wednesday with frontal passage.