Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/28/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
538 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 426 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Summary: Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight as a weak cool front moves through the Northland. A clipper system will bring accumulating snow to region Sunday night and Monday. Additional light snow chances arrive Wednesday. A deep trough aloft and associated lobe of vorticity were located over eastern Manitoba late this afternoon per RAP analysis and GOES-East IR imagery. The trough and vorticity will dig southeastward tonight with the trough closing off over northwest Ontario by 06Z. Strong winds aloft on the western periphery of the low along with low-level cold air advection should keep the boundary layer mixed overnight with gusty northwest winds of 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 20 to 35 mph expected. A few snow showers or flurries are not out of the question, especially over north- central Minnesota and the Arrowhead. The favorable fetch and warm surface water temperatures on Lake Superior (around 42 F, +5.5 C, per satellite observations from 11/25) should be sufficient for lake-effect snow showers over the northern portions of the Bayfield Peninsula and northern Iron County, with a better chance of snow showers farther east into Upper Michigan. The main question for the LES potential is residence time over the water and turbulent mixing of drier air aloft. With gusty winds expected over the water, parcels may not linger long enough over the southwest arm of Lake Superior to realize enough heat and moisture flux to support lake-effect snow. Will continue to carry PoPs and accumulating snow for now, but later shift may end up reducing amounts should snow showers be slow to develop or under-perform. The upper low will drift southeast of the area on Sunday and wind gusts will gradually subside. Attention then shifts to a clipper system which will bring our next chance of widespread accumulating snow to the Northland Sunday night through Monday night. There are still minor timing differences among the deterministic and ensemble models, which limits our precision in timing to 3-hour increments starting late Sunday evening. Think well see a frontogenetic band of snow along the elevated warm front, oriented northwest to southeast, move across our area. Light snow should move into northwest Minnesota during the late afternoon or early evening and arrive in central and north-central Minnesota after 9 PM. Light snow will move eastward with time, resulting in snow covered and slippery roads in time for the Monday morning post-holiday commute. Were carrying a broad area of 1 to 3 inches of accumulation through Monday afternoon with some lake- enhancement/lake-effect snow possible thereafter into early Tuesday morning for portions of Iron County. An additional inch or two isnt out of the question for the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt areas by the time the snow wraps up. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will oscillate between slightly above and slightly below normal as northwest flow remains in place aloft. A progressive pattern of shortwave troughs will alternate between cold air advection and warm air advection regimes every 24 to 36 hours through next weekend. A more organized clipper may bring another round of snow to the Northland Wednesday and Wednesday night with a few inches of accumulation possible. Another clipper may bring a dusting up to an inch or two of snow Thursday night and Friday with scattered snow showers possibly lingering into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Starting out with VFR across the terminals but an upper-low and cold air advection will dive south-southeast into the area tonight. MVFR ceilings upstream across eastern Manitoba and far northwest Ontario will arrive tonight. Have kept BRD scattered for now, but opted for MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Scattered snow showers or flurries are possible tonight and have added VCSH to INL and HIB with this update. The cold air advection tonight should be able to mix the boundary layer and produce gusty winds as an axis of stronger winds aloft on the western periphery of the upper-low moves over our area. The axis of the jet should be far enough aloft to preclude LLWS at this time. Models are notoriously fast in clearing ice clouds in cold air advection regimes. So, have ended the wind gusts at the terminals between 11Z and 14Z. Will hold onto the MVFR ceilings for a little while longer even as the forecast soundings indicate skies will clear. All sites should be VFR by late afternoon at the latest. && .MARINE... Issued at 426 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Strong northwest winds of 10 to 25 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected tonight into Sunday morning. Occasional gale- force gusts to 35 knots are possible for the waters of the North Shore from around midnight through 9 AM. An upgrade to a Gale Warning for those areas may be needed later tonight if it appears the gale-force gusts will be more persistent than currently forecast. Winds will weaken by Sunday afternoon and will gradually back southwesterly ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Light snow will push eastward over the water Sunday night and Monday and may produce visibility of less than 1 mile at times. Temperatures over the water may be warm enough to melt some of the snow into rain. West and northwest winds in the wake of the area of low pressure will be gusty late Monday night through Tuesday. As of the time of this discussion, gusts should be 20 knots or less, near the threshold for Small Craft Advisories. If later forecasts indicate higher wind speeds than currently expected, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 21 29 20 35 / 10 0 70 70 INL 20 27 17 32 / 10 10 70 70 BRD 18 32 22 40 / 0 0 60 20 HYR 19 31 17 37 / 10 0 70 70 ASX 23 32 18 36 / 20 10 50 70 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
827 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Latest RAP and CAMs bring the rainfall further to the south and east and out of our forecast area, which are consistent with the radar reflectivity trends. As a result, removed rain from the POP and Weather grids slightly earlier for our western north Texas counties and our Oklahoma counties bordering the Red River. No other changes have been made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 A mid-level low will move west to east across central Texas through this evening. There is a fairly definite northern edge to the moisture and the rain with this system. Mid-level flow will increase from the northwest over Oklahoma later today, and along with a passing cold front, will keep a distinct northern edge to light rain. Likely pops will be confined to the southern tier of our TX counties with slight rain chances just north of the Red River for today. The cold front now moving through northwestern Oklahoma is expected to clear central Oklahoma by late afternoon and southeastern Oklahoma around midnight. Only slightly cooler air is expected to take temperatures down closer to late-November averages on Sunday with breezy north winds subsiding around mid-day Sunday. In fact, this airmass will move eastward toward Arkansas by Sunday afternoon allowing south winds to develop in western Oklahoma. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1237 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Summary: Most of the coming week will bring us above normal temperatures (highs in the 60s and lower 70s) with little to no rain chances. Meteorological Analysis: The overall synoptic pattern will be northwest flow with an upper level ridge impinging from the west for most of the long term period. Models indicate a shortwave moving through Tuesday / Wednesday bringing only the slightest of cool downs. Moisture will remain too far south for us to have any rain chances with this system. The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain toward next weekend (starting Friday) when a minority of ensemble members try to push off the ridge to our west. There`s enough of a signal to at least forecast lower temperatures Saturday and Sunday, but any rain chances still look to be below mentionable probabilities. Day && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Mid-level clouds and light rain over our far southern counties will shift back south before 03Z or so, leaving decreasing cloudiness behind. North winds behind a cold front will continue overnight, then decrease during the day on Sunday, then (in the west) shift to light southerly or (in the central and east) light and variable. && .UPPER AIR... Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 No Upper Air Flights are planned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 37 58 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 35 61 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 64 38 73 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 29 61 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 33 57 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 41 62 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
217 PM PST Sat Nov 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High confidence that dry weather will continue over the next 7 days. Expect cool and locally foggy mornings in the Valley and mild afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Visible satellite is showing mostly clear skies across interior Northern California this afternoon under high pressure. Ensemble guidance is in extremely good agreement that high pressure will remain over California through the upcoming week. Under this pattern, dry weather will persist with above normal daytime temperatures and generally light winds. Daytime temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the Valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains and foothills, which is around 5 to 20 degrees warmer than the daily normal for this time of year. Overnight temperatures will be chilly in the Valley (40s) and mild in the foothills (upper 40s to mid 50s). Fog and low stratus chances are possible in the late evening through early morning hours in the Valley, though HREF and HRRR indicate fog could be more localized in nature. -HEC && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)... Cluster analysis shows strong ensemble agreement that high pressure will continue into next weekend over California. Forecast remains very similar to the short term with dry conditions and above normal temperatures prevailing. -HEC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions predominate the next 24 hours. Areas of MVFR conditions develop overnight in BR. Local IFR/LIFR is expected in the Central Valley, generally south of KRBL from 12Z thru about 18Z. The best potential for patchy fog will again be over the northern San Joaquin Valley. Surface winds will be mainly light and variable with wind gusts under 10 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$