Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/26/21

National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Expect a cloudy and dry Thanksgiving with temperatures turning a little milder. A cold front will bring a period of light rain and rain/snow mix for the higher terrain tonight before noticeably colder and windy conditions ensue by midday tomorrow. Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue tomorrow afternoon into Friday night resulting in light to moderate snow accumulations mainly for elevations 1000ft and above. However, brief snow showers cannot be rule out even in valley areas. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Rain tracking through eastern NY and western New England now and will exit through the early morning hours before there is a break in the precipitation. Clouds and light precipitation will prevent temperatures from falling too much more through the night. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through the night. Previous discussion has more details and is below... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Cloudy and seasonably mild today as an upper level ridge slides into New England resulting in weak warm air advection thanks to south- southwesterly flow through the column. Due to thickening and lowering clouds impeding insolation and a subsidence inversion that is limiting boundary layer mixing, temperatures today will not deviate too much from climatology with most areas near or a few degrees above normal. Expecting highs in the low to mid 40s for most areas with upper 40s for the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT areas and the southwest Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the 30s. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist through sunset. Tonight, warm air advection increases resulting in a brief period of light showers. These showers should impact areas west of the Hudson by 21 - 03 UTC with areas from the Hudson River into western New England observing showers from 03 - 09 UTC. Due to weak overall forcing, QPF amounts will be low amounting to around a tenth of an inch or less. P-type will be mainly rain or rain/snow mix but higher terrain areas in the southwest Adirondacks, southern Greens and Taconics could experience some brief sleet or freezing rain at times given near freezing surface temperatures but weak WAA maintaining slightly milder temperatures aloft. Any wintry mix should be brief with minimal impacts. Due to southwest flow, cloud coverage and light showers, expecting temperature to be steady overnight, remaining in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Winter Weather Advisory for Hamilton and northern Herkimer County 7am Friday to 7am Saturday... Winter Weather Advisory for Bennington County, VT and eastern Rensselaer County, NY from 10am Friday to 7am Saturday... The main cold front associated with our parent trough will approach eastern NY and western New England tomorrow morning with a period of showers ahead of the leading edge of the incoming cold air mass overspreading the area by 09 - 15 UTC. Mild air initially will favor rain for most areas with rain/snow mix in the higher terrain; however, once the wind shift boundary pushes through and winds shift quickly to the west or west- northwest, a surge of cold air will infiltrate the region and whatever showers are left could transition to rain/snow mix. Total QPF amounts from the morning period of showers still look light generally 0.10 - 0.20" but given better low level forcing, expect a steadier period of rain compared to what falls Thursday night. The leading edge of the incoming cold air mass overspreads the entire region by 15 - 18 UTC with gusty winds rapidly ensuing as our parent trough becomes negatively tilted. Expect west to northwest winds to become sustained between 10 to 20mph with gusts 25 to 35mph. Gusts up to 40mph are possible in the higher terrain. The strong winds will usher in a cold air mass characterized by 850hPa dropping to -5C to -8C. As a result, surface temperatures should suffer, reaching their daily maximum values in the mid to upper 30s (low 40s in the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT) near or before 18 UTC and then should decrease through the afternoon. The strong cold air advection and favorable west-northwest fetch across the relatively mild Lake Ontario waters will also invoke a strong lake effect response as inversion heights rise above 5000ft. Lake effect snow showers likely impact our western and southern Adirondack areas Friday morning through Friday afternoon with snow ratios increasing throughout the day up to 12 - 14:1. Total snowfall amounts here expected to range 3 to 5 inches with up to 5 - 7 inches in the chimney of Herkimer County. We issued a Winter Weather Advisory to alert residents for this lake effect event. Strong winds combined with increasingly fluffy snow may also reduce visibility and lead to blowing snow. As surface temperatures drop midday into the afternoon, ongoing rain/snow showers that reach into the eastern Catskills, Schoharie County, Helderbergs and Mohawk Valley could transition to mainly snow showers leading to coatings to one inch of snow. Best chance for accumulating snow likely in the afternoon when cold enough air moves in aloft that even surface temperatures near or slightly above freezing could support minor accumulations. In addition to lake effect snow showers, the strong west- northwest winds plus moist cyclonic flow behind the negatively tilted parent trough overhead will likely result in an impressive upslope snow event for the southern Greens and Rensselaer Plateau. Froude numbers are less than one through 00 UTC Saturday which suggests that the highest snowfall amounts should occur just upwind of the spine of the Greens which is where we expect 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts up to 8 - 10 inches. Lower elevations of Bennington County should still experience 1 to 3 inches of snow but there will be a significant increase in snow amounts and rapidly changing weather conditions as elevation increases. Moderate to even briefly heavy snow is expected with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour possible at times in the higher terrain. We issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Bennington County in VT and eastern Rensselaer County in NY but the higher terrain areas above 1500ft could see warning level snow amounts in excess of 6 - 7 inches. Due to to localized nature and lower population areas here, we did not issue a winter storm warning. Initially, SLRs should be slightly below climatology (less than 10:1) as boundary layer temperatures will be mild and the DGZ zone is above 700hPa. This could lead to a wet snow initially. However, as the cold air mass overspreads the region and temperatures drop through the afternoon, SLRs should improve reaching ~12:1 by 00 UTC Saturday. Even still, high QPF amounts and strong forcing for ascent from the terrain should result in impressive snow amounts. As SLRs increase and winds remain gusty, reduced visibility is possible. As the parent trough exits into New England Friday evening, elongated vorticity maxima extending into eastern NY in its wake combined with ongoing cold air advection could support snow showers continuing into the late afternoon and early evening hours. In fact, high res guidance such as the HRRR hints at the potential for the northwest winds and sufficient lake enhanced moisture to allow snow showers to reach even into valley areas, possibly even the Capital District. There remain uncertainty on exactly where any snow showers could impact as these should be isolated to scattered at best but sfc temperatures near and after dark will be cold enough to support a quick coating up to a few tenths of snow depending on the intensity of any snow showers. Upslope and lake effect snow showers wind down overnight, especially after 06 UTC Saturday. Gusty winds continue so temperatures will likely not become as cold as they could given the chilly air mass in place. Still, expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s. Breezy conditions linger into Saturday as our mature cyclone escapes into the Canadian Maritimes dropping to sub-980hPa with high pressure in the mid-Atlantic building northeastward. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as northwest flow maintains a moisture fetch off the lakes. Temperatures will also be colder than normal given the ongoing cold air advection regime with highs only rising into the low to mid 30s with the higher terrain remaining below freezing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Our upper-level feature will depart Saturday night with high pressure squeezing into the region. This will result in mainly dry and cold conditions with lows in the teens and 20s. It could turn out a bit colder if winds can go calm for enough of a period of time. Attention then turns to our next feature for later Sunday into Monday. Long range guidance (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) suggest a slightly different upper-level and surface pattern when compared to yesterday but all show a similar new solution. So, while run-to-run consistency is not completely present, the agreement amongst the guidance when things change remains similar. This suite of runs show an approaching upper-level shortwave from the Ohio Valley followed by a more potent upper-level trough from the upper Great Lakes (albeit more progressive). At the surface, an area of low pressure will track westward into western New York and Pennsylvania, weakening over the Appalachians in the process, then transfer its energy to a coastal low (positioned farther east than yesterday`s runs). These new solutions prevent much of our area from receiving impacts from the coastal low. However, the presence of warm advection and isentropic lift from the weakening low to our west would still result in an area of precipitation (mostly in the form of snow). Areas closer to the I-90 corridor may be more favored for steadier precipitation than far northern and southern areas (area of best lift and low-level convergence). As a result, we increased pops from the NBM to high chance and low likely in these areas. Still too soon to determine exact snow amounts, but a light accumulation is possible for all areas. In the wake of this system, some wrap around and/or lake-enhanced snow showers will be possible on Monday but looks to be short lived as upper-level heights rise. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will range from the 20s to lower 30s in the higher elevations to the mid-30s to lower 40s in the valleys. The remainder of the period has lower confidence as models show all different solutions, though they indicate a continued west to northwest upper-level flow and a series of upper-level shortwaves passing near or through the region, which could lead to periods of rain/snow showers. It is uncertain which days have the better chances, so generally ran with NBM pops which led to slight chance to low chance pops at times. It will continue to be on the chilly side with highs mainly in the mid-20s to lower 30s in the higher elevations and mid-30s to lower 40s in the valleys with lows mainly in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z/Sat...VFR conditions will start the TAF period, but a period of light rain will push across the terminals between 02z- 07z/Fri in which a gradual lowering to MVFR cigs is anticipated. Vsbys should be mainly VFR as precipitation will be light. Thereafter, a break in precipitation is expected but mainly MVFR cigs are anticipated for the remainder of the overnight (however, some rises to VFR are possible at this time, especially at KPOU). A cold front will push across the terminals later Friday morning which will bring another round of rainfall to all sites. Cigs and vsbys look to be MVFR at this time. Rain showers look to continue through the afternoon (especially at KALB/KGFL/KPSF) though the arrival of colder air could allow for an eventual mix or changeover to snow showers. Highest confidence for a changeover to snow is at KPSF (where IFR vsbys are likely) with moderate confidence of at least a rain/snow mix at KALB/KGFL (with MVFR or maybe IFR vsbys). There is lower confidence in visibility reduction precipitation at KPOU due to downsloping so will only include VCSH at this time. Ceilings Friday afternoon look to range from high end MVFR to low end VFR. Wind will be calm or light out of the south for the majority of tonight, then turn out of the west to southwest at 5-10 kt Friday morning. In the wake of the cold front, wind will shift to the west Friday afternoon and increase to 12-16 kt with gusts 25-30 kt (highest at KALB/KPSF). Outlook... Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHSN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain showers tonight into tomorrow morning will result in about 0.10 - 0.20" of liquid precipitation. Then, lake effect and upslope snow showers will follow for Friday afternoon into Friday night. While 3 to 6 inches with up to 8 to 10 inches of snow is expected in the higher terrain areas of the southern Greens, southern and western Adirondacks, and Rensselaer Plateau, this will not impact rivers. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ054. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for VTZ013. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
922 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A period of rain is expected into the overnight as a cold front approaches. These rain showers will transition to snow showers Friday morning as colder air moves into the region. Lake effect snow and gusty winds are expected Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. We are watching a system that could bring a period of widespread light snow late Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 915 PM Update... Just tweaked POPs to reflect on-going radar trends. Didn`t make any changes to snowfall forecasts as colder air works across NY and PA late tonight and Friday. Rain will turn to light snow and the lake effect snow showers will set up Friday into Friday night. We have winter weather advisories for a large part of north central NY with 2"-6" of snow forecast. It looks like the highest amounts will be in the higher terrain south of the Thruway from Southern Cayuga Co to Cortland Co. Southern Onondaga and southern Madison counties. These areas will see colder temperatures and an earlier change-over hence more will accumulate. Wind gusts likely will peak late afternoon/early evening Friday at 30-40 mph in most areas. In areas where snow will be falling considerable blowing and drifting snow will occur. With a west-northwest flow the southern tier of NY east of Owego into the Catskills likely will see 1-2" of snow in the higher terrain, possibly 3-4" in the higher terrain of Catskills. In northeast PA, the higher terrain in Susquehanna and Wayne Counties and even down to southern Lackawanna Counties likely will have a covering of snow to as much as a few inches over Elk Mountain at the highest terrain of northeast PA. The rest of the forecast area will see falling temperatures Friday and gusty winds. It will feel a lot like winter. 00z Namnest, 00Z HRRR suggests a little less snow falls that what we have advertised at present. Model soundings show that the inversion is just below the dendretic snow growth layer. In any event, winter weather advsiory looks on track for now. More guidance will be needed to make any adjustments to snow amounts. 545 PM Update... Did a quick update to account for light rain showers that have developed across areas east of I-81 in central NY/northeast PA. Also bumped POPs up to likely in north central NY based on latest radar trends. Otherwise, going forecast for lake effect snow and transition looks on track based on latest guidance. 330 PM Update Just some scattered light rain showers around under mostly cloudy skies through the early evening hours. Periods of rain then move in from the west by 6-9 PM and continue on and off into the overnight. There will be some breaks in the steady rain, with just patchy drizzle at times. The rain will then begin to mix with wet snow, first over the higher elevations by around 4-7 AM. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. Colder air aloft begins to filter into the region just before daybreak ,as 850 mb temperatures reach -5C at sunrise. No major changes to the forecast late tonight through Friday night; just minor tweaks to match the latest guidance and WPC. Temperatures start off in the mid to upper 30s at daybreak Friday, but fall into the low/mid-30s by midday and upper 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon. Confidence has grown for an advisory level lake effect/upslope snow event starting daybreak Friday, peaking Friday afternoon and evening before winding down Saturday morning. Therefore, continued the Winter Weather Advisory for Oneida, Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Southern Cayuga counties. Expecting 2-5 inches for Oneida County, with 3-6" and locally higher amounts for the other advisory counties. On the edge of the advisory area, expect 1-3 with locally up to 4 inches for parts of Seneca, Tompkins and Chenango counties. Could see eventually needed to add Tompkins and/or Chenango into the advisory if snow amounts and confidence increase even slightly in future updates. Further south for the Southern Tier east into the Catskills there will be a period of snow showers Friday into Friday night with a dusting to 2" most probable...isolated 3 inches amounts possible for northern Tioga, Otsego and Delaware Counties (especially higher elevations). For the Chemung Valley region down into NE PA there will just be some flurries or scattered snow showers around late afternoon into the evening, with locally up to 1 inch possible. Northwest winds will be gusting 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and evening, which will combine with falling temperatures and snow to produce areas of blowing snow. Expect potentially hazardous winter travel conditions Friday into Friday night across much of CNY, but especially in the winter weather advisory areas. Some drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere gradually works into the area from the west later Friday night. This will decrease the coverage of snow showers after midnight, but a lake effect band should continue on the cold northwest flow off of Lake Ontario and perhaps the Finger Lakes. Initially there is sufficient, deep moisture through the DGZ but late at night this begins to decrease. The best ascent is forecast to be below the DGZ much of the time based off the 12Z NAM soundings at Syracuse, but there should still be enough lift into the DGZ for dendrites to form...especially in the favored upslope locations. Snow to liquid ratios should increase to between 12-15:1 overnight...although the strong winds and blowing snow may put a bit of a damper on any higher ratio potential. Outside of the main lake effect areas expect partly cloudy skies with isolated flurries possible in NE PA. It remains breezy overnight with northwest winds 10-20 mph. Cold with lows in the upper 10s to mid-20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 350 PM Update... Lake effect snow will taper off on Saturday morning, though models such as the NAM12 and CMC Regional suggest it may be a little stubborn in letting up over parts of Southern Onondaga/Seneca and northern Cortland Counties, as is often the case. But snowfall rates will rapidly diminish by mid morning, and the area should be precip- free by midday. Cold northwest winds will remain breezy, and while some clearing is likely in the afternoon, especially south of the Thruway and into NEPA, highs will be stuck in the upper-20s to lower 30s, with the Wyoming Valley perhaps squeezing out mid-30s. Meanwhile, an Alberta clipper will be moving into the western Great Lakes, with a secondary shortwave trough right on its heels. The initial shortwave and attendant surface low will reach Lake Erie late Saturday night, with weak isentropic lift spreading from SW to NE across western PA into western NY. It`ll be running into a very dry airmass across NY and PA, but top-down moistening and modest low level moisture advection should be enough to get some light snow to reach the surface by early Sunday morning, especially west of I-81. We may see a brief lull as isentropic lift weakens later in the morning, but the aforementioned secondary shortwave trough will quickly catch up to our clipper, allowing the weak surface low to deepen (slightly), and leading to more widespread light snow showers across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. The snow showers will tend to favor areas along and north of the surface low track, so the highest PoPs will generally be in NY state and into the northern tier of PA. Snowfall rates will generally be light, but an isolated heavier squall is not out of the question, particularly as colder air aloft (H7 temps of -15 or colder) push into the area late in the afternoon, steepening lapse rates. Early projections suggest 1-3 inches will fall over a broad area by Monday morning, favoring the higher terrain of the Allegheny Plateau. On the back side of the clipper late Sunday night into much of Monday, expect another transition to lake effect snow, again favoring the Seneca/Onondaga/Cortland county area given NW flow and a Lake Huron connection. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 350 PM Update Yet another clipper system looks to sweep through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Initially, winds will shift, cutting off the Lake Huron connection and shifting the focus for lake effect snow northwards. This second clipper will be a little wanting for moisture, and significant accumulation looks unlikely at this point. Somewhat quieter and milder weather is expected in the wake of this system, though a weak system may try to pass well to our north on Wednesday night, with high pressure building in for Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front approaching from the west will usher in MVFR ceilings after 03Z this evening with light rain on the front end, changing to a mix of rain/snow between 06-10Z overnight and then eventually to all snow after 12Z. Fuel alternate required to MVFR ceilings are expected as this front moves through overnight. IFR restrictions are likely at SYR and RME, along with BLSN after 15Z. The snow showers at ITH and BGM will subside slightly after 14Z and then ramp up again after 18Z with some IFR vsbys/cigs possible. For ELM and AVP, once the rain showers (possibly mixed with some wet snow showers) move out by 12-15Z, expect a return to low-end VFR or high-end MVFR CIGS and unrestricted vsbys with periods of light snow showers. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt this evening will become west then west- northwest after the cold frontal passage early Friday morning and increase to 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 to 30 kts late Friday morning and through the afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday morning...Potential lake effect snow showers with restrictions, especially SYR, ITH, BGM terminals otherwise VFR. Saturday afternoon into evening...Conditions improve to VFR all areas as lake effect snow ends. Late Saturday night through Monday...Another system developing to our southwest will bring a period of light to moderate snow with associated restrictions to much of the forecast area. Tuesday...Continued chances for snow showers and associated restrictions as a weak wave combines with lake effect. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 9 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-017-018-036-037-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MJM NEAR TERM...DJN/MJM SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...BJT/MJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1011 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front located from near Erie to Canton late this evening will continue to move east across Pennsylvania overnight A trough will linger over the area through Saturday morning. High pressure then briefly builds over the area Saturday afternoon and evening before another area of low pressure moves over the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Latest forecast appears to be on track. No changes to the headlines. However still slight concern we will need to nudge snow amounts up slightly across Geauga County. Until we start seeing the bands of lake effect snow starting to develop it is difficult to jump on this. Colder air continues to move across the CWA with all locations seeing temperatures under 0 C at 850 MB. Have been watching the 850mb temperatures from the HRRR closely with a change to snow occurring across Michigan as they drop into the -6 C to -8 C range. The -6 C isotherm at 850 mb is just entering the western CWA. So expect to see a gradual change to snow with it reaching the central CWA about 0530Z and NW PA around 07Z. It still appears that the heaviest lake effect snow will occur from 10Z to 20Z, mostly over NW PA. Previous Discussion... Currently a low pressure system is situated over the central Great Lakes, extending a cold front southwest across western Ohio. This cold front will continue to push east across the area this afternoon into the evening, allowing for rain showers to continue to diminish over the area. Simultaneously, the low pressure is also expected to move east and intensify over the eastern Great Lakes tonight, which is when the forecast becomes much more tricky with a shift from the synoptic rain, to a rain/snow mix, and then ultimately lake effect snow. As the cold front departs the area between 00Z and 06Z Friday, a surge of cold air is expected to be ushered in by northwesterly winds across the area, transitioning all precipitation to snow near 06Z. Temperatures at 850-mb will become much colder at -10 to -12C, which coupled with Lake Erie water temperatures in the central and eastern basins still in the mid to upper 40s, will allow for moderate lake induced instability of 350-400 J/kg to develop. Equilibrium levels are expected to steadily increase to near 10kft by Friday morning, before gradually decreasing into Friday evening. With conditions over the lake primed for LES development, models are also suggesting an area of enhanced convergence along the lakeshore, spanning from eastern Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA, through Friday morning. All of these factors, coupled with the moist airmass in place, will definitely result in LES for much of the OH and PA snowbelts, with the highest amounts expected in Erie County, PA. As a result, a Lake Effect Snow Warning has been issued for southern Erie County and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northern Erie County and Crawford County. These go into effect at 1AM Friday and will continue through 7AM Saturday. This upgrade was a resulting of increasing confidence of over 8 inches of snow falling across Erie and LES persisting longer than previously forecast. Inland areas of the OH snowbelt can expect to see 1-3 inches of snowfall. There are however, many variables in play that could result in higher/lower snowfall totals. One of the biggest factors that will impact snowfall totals is how quickly the dry airmass moves across the area. Current models continue to trend towards keeping the moist airmass in place longer, which would keep an ideal LES environment in play longer than previous models had suggested, resulting in the forecasted snow totals. If dry air moves in faster, then totals will likely be less. The timing of the drier airmass will also be key in any Lake Huron connection that models now suggest may occur Friday afternoon. If the dry air is slower to move in, these bands may be able to reach NW PA before fizzling out, which may result in slightly higher snowfall totals locally. Aside from the moisture content of the airmass, the strong winds will also play an important role in where the snow will fall. With this forecast, wind gusts from the northwest of 30 to 35 mph are possible Friday morning into the afternoon, locally higher along the lakeshore. These winds may result in the highest snowfall accumulations shifting a bit south. Confidence in when or where this may occur is low so opted to keep highest totals in eastern Erie County, but something that will need to be monitored in the upcoming forecast updates. Finally, it is uncertain how quickly snow will begin to accumulate overnight. With temperatures this afternoon remaining in the 40s and a wet surface from all the rain, initial snowfall will likely melt on contact. However, if heavy snowbands with 1 in/hr rates develop quickly, snow will likely accumulate much quicker. The forecast through Friday night is very complex and dependent on an number of factors aligning at the right times. The key take away is that heavy lake effect snow showers are expected across Erie County which will result in hazardous travel. Motorists should use caution as roads will become snow covered and slick, with the possibility of quickly changing visibilities. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Several pieces of energy will move through the northwest flow across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend, carving out a trough across New England by Monday. At the surface, a ridge will build east across the Great Lakes region on Saturday with any lingering snow tapering off fairly quickly as we continue to dry from the west. Most of the area will be dry until precipitation develops from west to east Saturday night as isentropic ascent increases ahead of the leading shortwave. Precipitation may begin initially as rain if it begins prior to 00Z Sunday, but should mostly transition over to a period of light snow. There is some question as to where the axis of precipitation develops along the 850-700mb front so that may need some minor adjustments. Temperatures at 925mb do warm aloft overnight reaching around 0C up to the Route 30 corridor and a mix back to rain is possible across the south. Surface low pressure will meander east across Lake Erie on Sunday. A second piece of energy will dig into the upper trough across the Great Lakes on Sunday with energy shifting to the East Coast by Monday morning. The track of the low will be a factor to watch over the weekend and will effect how much snow/precipitation falls during the daytime hours on Sunday. The NAM brings drier air a little farther north on Sunday morning while the other models maintain precipitation across NE Ohio/NW Pennsylvania a little longer. Later in the day, all models show lake enhanced precipitation filling back in as NW flow accompanied by deeper moisture develops behind the upper trough. Not expecting much of a temperatures rise during the day on Sunday as cold advection kicks back in and lowered high temperatures by a degree or two across the east. Additional light to moderate snow will resume across the snowbelt Sunday afternoon into Sunday night before we lose deeper moisture on Monday. Lowered Snow accumulations over the weekend will likely range from around an inch across portions of NW and Central Ohio to 2-6" across the snowbelt with highest amounts in NW Pennsylvania. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another ridge of high pressure will slide east across the area on Monday bringing an end to the lake effect. During the extended we will see a series of waves move through the NW flow aloft and will hold onto low chance pops across the snowbelt region. Temperatures will tend to remain below normal with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Cold front was located from Sandusky to Findlay at 00Z. Rain and drizzle have filled in ahead of the front with IFR/LIFR conditions. These conditions will persist as the cold front moves to the east through the evening. Winds increase quickly in the wake of the cold front as winds shift to the west and northwest. Southwest winds of 6-10 knots are expected ahead of the cold front. As the front passes west to northwest winds increase to 12-16 knots with gusts 25-30 knots possible. Strongest gusts should occur near the lakeshore, especially from 10Z-17Z. There may be a lull in the precipitation across NW OH in the wake of the cold front but believe some scattered snow showers arrive after 03Z along with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels. Further east where the winds flow off of Lake Erie ceilings should not improve above MVFR levels in the wake of the front. As snow showers and a few heavier bands of lake effect snow develop expect ceilings and visibilities to drop to IFR levels. The most significant impacts will likely be at KERI and maybe KYNG late tonight into Friday morning. Will need to watch KCLE and KCAK closely as northwest winds could direct scattered heavier lake effect snow showers over the terminals. All locations should see ceilings gradually lift Friday afternoon with VFR across NW OH. Locations downwind of the lake will see variable MVFR/IFR conditions in snow showers but there could be breaks of VFR conditions for KMFD, KCLE, KCAK for late afternoon into the evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow Friday through Sunday in Northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Low pressure will move from southern Ontario into Quebec tonight, pulling a cold front across Lake Erie. Winds will abruptly shift to the northwest behind the front and increase to 30 knots overnight and continuing into Friday morning on the central and eastern basin of the lake. There is a short window where we may be close to gale force winds, mainly from 9 AM-1 PM and can not rule out the need to issue a brief Gale Warning for the mid-section of Lake Erie west of Long Point towards Erie Pennsylvania. The strong winds will lead to waves of 6-10 feet on Friday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore waters through at least Friday afternoon, continuing for areas east of the Lake Erie Islands through Friday night/Saturday. Improving conditions are expected on Saturday as a ridge builds east across the lake. Another area of low pressure will deepen as it tracks east across Lake Erie on Sunday. Winds will increase out of the west/northwest in the wake of the low and another round of Small Craft Advisories will be needed Sunday through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001-003. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ144-145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/MM SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...MM MARINE...KEC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1043 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers are likely late tonight into early Friday as a cold front moves across the area. The front will move farther offshore Friday morning bringing cooler weather to the area by Saturday. A mainly dry cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the area the first half of the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Some tweaks to the clouds and pcpn, basically delaying it by a 1-2 hrs based on latest and trends of both Satellite and Mosaic 88D imagery as well as HRRR model imagery. Have tweaked hrly late evening thru overnight temps up by a degree or 2 based on latest Obs trends and the active boundary layer SW winds. But overall theme of the fcst remains, ie. the sfc high retreating offshore and the approach and passage of a cold front overnight into daylight Fri morning. No change to the SCA or the NC Counties Fire Danger Statements. Will need to look into SC Forestry with CAE and see if a SPS is required for our SC Counties. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will sink south and then shift eastward as a cold front approaches from the west tonight. Winds will shift a bit more SW this evening and should increase enough to keep the boundary layer from decoupling. Overall, we will remain in weak WAA ahead of front with a non-diurnal temp curve leading to overnight lows close to 50 most places. Moisture ahead of the front will move through rather rapidly and remain rather narrow, confined to a few hour window reaching the I-95 corridor after midnight and clearing the coast by mid morning. Expect a quick window of pcp with most places picking up less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall. Skies should clear rapidly. Gusty NW winds and CAA behind the front will make for a cooler day on Friday with increasing sunshine only pushing temps about 5 to 10 degrees higher from morning lows, with highs in the 50s most places with gusty NW winds making it feel cooler. Deep N to NW flow will continue into Fri night with continued CAA as dry high pressure builds into the area. The 850 temps will drop about 10 degrees from this evening to Sat morning with overnight lows down below freezing most places. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The mid level pattern will more or less be from the west, northwest though the period as the forecast remains dry. At the surface high pressure will meander across the area from west to east with a dry front moving across late. Cool highs Saturday in the lower to middle 50s will warm into the 60s Sunday ahead of the next front with a bit of warm air advection. Morning lows will generally be in the middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mid level west to northwest flow will continue into early next week relaxing toward the end of the period with some mixed signals on the extent of the warm up. Operational guidance is more bullish on highs approaching 70 by midweek with a more reserved trend with other guidance. Maintained the more muted approach for now with the forecast remaining dry as well. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the evening hours with SCT/BKN thin to opaque cirrus. A cold front will move fairly swiftly from west to east across the Carolinas during the pre-dawn Fri hrs and exiting the Carolina Coasts early to mid daytime Fri morning. Potential for brief period of MVFR associated with scattered showers and ceilings. VFR to dominate by by midday with gusty NW winds thru the aftn. Extended Outlook...VFR and high pressure dominates Fri night into Sun. Brief MVFR possible Sun night from a CFP. VFR and high pressure Mon thru Tue. && .MARINE... Through Friday Night... High pressure will drop south and east tonight as a cold front moves in from the west. Winds will increase as gradient tightens with the approach of a cold front through tonight. The winds will shift to the west and then NW as front moves through early Fri. Winds should reach up to 20 to 25 kts tonight with gusts up to 30 kts into Fri morning pushing seas up to 3 to 5 ft peaking just near or under 6 ft Fri morning before shifting to the NW. The offshore flow will keep greatest seas farther offshore. Gusty NW flow will diminish slowly through Fri falling below SCA thresholds by Fri aftn. Winds will remain NW to N through Fri night with seas down to 2 to 4 ft most waters. Saturday through Tuesday... Light wind fields Saturday will become better defined from the southwest into early Sunday as high pressure drifts offshore and a cold front approaches from the northwest. This flow will increase to a maximum of 15-20 knots late Sunday before a wind shift associated with the front occurs. This flow will peak at 15-20 knots as well and diminish through Tuesday while becoming more northeast. Very modest seas of around two feet will increase with the winds to a range of 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK/SRP AVIATION...DCH MARINE...RGZ/SHK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
737 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 329 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 A cold night is in store across central clearing skies and diminishing winds allow low temperatures to bottom out in the teens. && .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 A back edge to extensive low cloud cover has been rapidly pushing eastward this evening, having reached I-57 by 730 pm. Clear skies and diminishing winds overnight associated with an approaching surface high pressure ridge will allow for cold temperatures by morning. Expected lows ranging from 14 in Galesburg to 21 in Lawrenceville look good. Updates this evening have been mainly to speed up clearing around the I-57 corridor. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 329 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 21z/3pm satellite imagery shows clearing line along/west of the Illinois River. Based on timing tools and latest HRRR forecast, it appears skies will clear along the I-55 corridor within the next 2-3 hours, then further east to the Indiana border by mid-evening. Northwesterly winds are currently gusting 25-30mph: however, as high pressure builds eastward, winds will slowly decrease to less than 10mph overnight. Due to clearing skies and diminishing winds, low temperatures will drop into the teens. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 329 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Quiet weather will be on tap throughout the extended, with a couple of weak disturbances embedded within the prevailing northwesterly flow pattern potentially bringing light precip. After a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the 30s on Friday, the first wave will track through the Midwest on Saturday. 12z Nov 25 models have come into fairly good agreement with the track/timing of this feature...with consensus showing surface low pressure skirting just north of central Illinois. As a result, the bulk of the precip associated with the low will fall further north across Wisconsin/Michigan, with just a few light rain showers expected further south toward the I-74 corridor. Will include slight chance PoPs across the northern half of the KILX CWA accordingly. After the Saturday wave passes, temps will cool into the lower to middle 40s for Sunday...before quickly rebounding back into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Monday and Tuesday. A second short-wave trough will traverse the Midwest by mid-week: however, model solutions vary significantly. Have therefore opted to maintain a dry forecast until better model consistency is achieved. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 MVFR cigs remain east of a KDEC-KBMI line, with SKC west of this line. This clearing will move steadily eastward this evening, resulting in VFR conditions across the central IL terminals by 01Z-02Z. Although scattered mid and high clouds will return toward sunrise, VFR conditions will continue through the 24-h TAF forecast period. Winds NW 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts at 00Z, with gusts dropping off rapidly this evening and winds steadily decreasing overnight. A shift to S winds is expected by 18Z-20Z, with speeds remaining under 10 kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...37
National Weather Service Jackson KY
931 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM EST THU NOV 25 2021 A few minor adjustments to the forecast in the T/Td grids and the PoPs overnight. Have updated the T/Td grids with the latest observations and trends for the next few hours. Have lowered the PoPs in the northern and western counties based on radar returns being quite weak as the cold front approaches. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 505 PM EST THU NOV 25 2021 21Z sfc analysis shows a cold front steadily pushing toward central Kentucky with a band of cold rain showers preceding it. This rain has dropped temperatures into the mid to upper 40s here in the east while bringing the dewpoints up to the lower 40s. Winds are still mainly from the southwest through the JKL CWA at around 10 mph with some gusts to near 20 mph. The models are in terrific agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a digging trough sharpening over the Ohio Valley tonight dragging a band of energy through the state coincident with some larger height falls. While the heights will start to rebound on Friday a final energy stream will pass through the JKL CWA that afternoon in fast northwest flow. Given the small model spread have used the NBM grids as the starting point for the forecast, with significant inclusions of the HRRR and RAP low level moisture and instability parameters. Sensible weather will feature a classic post frontal rain to snow situation for eastern Kentucky tonight as colder air undercuts the departing pcpn. As such, we look for a light dusting possible most places, but up to an inch conceivable for locations above 2000 feet where a few roads may be impacted with slick patches later tonight into Friday morning. While the northwest flow will be the main culprit activating the lingering low level moisture for snow showers there is a decent shot for some enhancement from Lake Michigan per the high-res near term models. For this reason, kept slightly higher PoPs and the possibility of thicker dustings in the northeast portion of the CWA, along with some moderate cold regime instability noted mainly in our northeast counties. This could lead to more cellular snow showers for a time Friday morning and perhaps even some reports of graupel. On account of the potential for some accumulating snow on the higher elevations roads an SPS was issued for our three easternmost counties. Friday night will likely feature a very cold night with a decent ridge to valley temperature split showing up given the beginning of return flow. Only made minor adjustments to the temperatures from the NBM mainly for terrain distinctions on Friday night. As for PoPs, beefed them up for our typical post frontal upslope flow regime along with the higher CAMs guidance. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 428 PM EST THU NOV 25 2021 The period begins with our area under northwesterly flow aloft roughly between a large low centered over New England and a short wave over the Northern Plains. This short wave moves southeastward across the Mississippi Valley Saturday, ending up over the Ohio Valley by late Saturday night/early Sunday, all while supporting a similarly placed low at the surface. An attached warm front initially lifts through the area by Saturday evening, before the cold front is eventually dragged through during the afternoon/early evening on Sunday. Expect impacts to be restricted mainly to just increasing cloud cover through the evening for most areas. The best moisture will be confined to areas further north within the Ohio Valley and will limit the precip chances for most on Sunday, outside of possibly a few areas in our far north. However, some models suggest enough lingering moisture in the low levels behind the front that would keep some sprinkles from being entirely ruled out, particularly for portions of our far east, especially as low level lapse rates steepen later in the afternoon heading into the evening and flow becomes more westerly/northwesterly. Better return flow Saturday will help temperatures reach higher than Friday, but highs still remain slightly below normal in the upper 40s to low 50s. Temperatures dip only marginally Saturday night ahead of the front, bottoming out only in the mid 30s. Moving into the workweek, our area remains under northwest flow aloft as stagnant troughing remains across much of the eastern CONUS. A few passing waves move through the flow throughout the remainder of the period, though models show some slight disagreements over finer details, leading to a bit of uncertainty around precip chances, particularly late Monday into early Tuesday. However, these disturbances are generally lacking in deeper moisture over our area and don`t appear to have much impact other than periods of increased cloud cover. The broad troughing will help to keep temperatures late in the weekend through the first part of the week averaging below normal. Temperatures then moderate for the middle of the week, ending up slightly above normal by then end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 703 PM EST THU NOV 25 2021 The cold front continues to move toward eastern KY, bringing very low ceilings and reduced visibilities ahead of its passage. Ceilings start off below 1K at most sites with a couple even below 500 feet. Visibilities are generally MVFR/IFR but should improve over the next few hours with the passage of the front. The back edge of the main line of rain showers has entered the western counties and will continue to drift southeast. Winds ahead of the front are west/southwest at around 5 knots. Behind the front winds will veer to the northwest. Some scattered rain showers stick around with some snow flakes possible Friday morning as northwest upslope flow continues and residual moisture lingers over the area before tapering off by early afternoon. Ceilings should rapidly improve Friday afternoon with some wind gusts of around 15 knots are possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BATZ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...BATZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
858 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 The going forecast for a chilly Thanksgiving night remains on track. Just nudged down the forecast lows a couple degrees, mainly in north central Illinois. Stratocumulus continues to gradually be dragged southeastward in the exiting cyclonic flow and be pulled gradually out of the area. As of 900 PM, this back edge is along roughly the Fox River Valley and should be out of Illinois by midnight. Much drier air is helping to chew away at this as shown by the 0.08 inch PWAT on the 00Z DVN sounding. While some high clouds do look to arrive into northern Illinois near daybreak, much of the night ahead looks clear after the stratocumulus departure. With dew points dropping into the single digits over north central Illinois, lows may overperform a bit. Going MET/MAV MOS guidance has lows of 7/8 in Rockford, respectively, and the HRRR has trended slightly colder too. Do think some upper single digits are probable in at least the cold spots of north central Illinois. Otherwise, the lake effect snow or snizzle (snow/drizzle) into Porter County, Indiana has continued to be very light. Temperatures in this area are just now dropping to 32 and it is likely the precipitation will end completely by 11 PM, so not seeing any impacts materializing. MTF && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 104 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Through Friday night... A potent upper wave is currently pushing overhead, and the combo of mid-level frontogenesis and attendant upper jet divergence is helping to squeeze out precipitation where this forcing has intercepted deeper moisture. Rapidly-cooling mid-levels are supporting a swift changeover to snow, but the spatiotemporal overlap of better forcing for ascent and moisture will be brief. In fact, drying within and above the dendritic growth zone is already noted in visible satellite across northwest Illinois where IR cloud top temperatures have warmed above -10 C with the loss of the mid-level saturated layer. Thankfully, drying appears to be occurring quickly enough to preclude the development of drizzle in the sub-freezing airmass with saturated depths trending swiftly to less than 2-3 kft. Any precipitation of consequence peels east of the region through the rest of the afternoon, but lake effect will linger in the vicinity of Porter county in northwest Indiana into this evening. Given the aforementioned rapid mid-level drying, lake effect parameters remain pretty muted as ELs remain under about 7-8 kft through this evening. Thermal profiles will maintain a rain/snow mix through the rest of the afternoon, perhaps ending as all snow early-mid evening before dry air shuts off precip production entirely. While surface winds ease with time tonight, a lingering breeze overnight will result in single digit wind chills across most of the forecast area. Surface ridge crests overhead tomorrow resulting in light surface winds that will eventually become southwesterly through the afternoon. Look for increasing mid-level cloud cover through the day as our next disturbance--currently in Saskatchewan--drives an enhanced wing of warm advection overhead. Some guidance suggests top-down saturation may bring cloud bases down as low as 4-5 kft late Friday evening/overnight and this would be low enough to support some light (frozen) precipitation, but this is more of the exception to the rule at this point among the multi-model suite at this time and have left things dry through Friday night at this time. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... Issued at 107 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Saturday through Thursday... The pattern from the weekend onward will be dominated by upper-level northwesterly flow atop a low-level baroclinic zone draped across the Great Lakes. Usually, these patterns act like a highway for clipper-like low pressure systems emanating from southern Canada with bands of precipitation along and north of the path of each low. Pinpointing the track of each clipper is often tricky at this range, but an early glimpse seems to favor predominant track just north of (but still pretty close to) our area. The best chance of precipitation next week appears to be with a clipper poised to swing through the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon with at least some signal for a narrow band of showers in the vicinity of I-88 or I-80. Forecast thermal profiles look pretty warm, favoring an all-rain precipitation type with perhaps some window for snowflakes to mix in just as precipitation is ending Saturday evening. In all, the system does not currently appear to be a big trouble maker for our area. Temperatures next week are expected to be fairly steady with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the upper-level jet stream directly overhead, broken to overcast skies will prevail through next week. (In other words, completely clear or sunny skies appear unlikely). Borchardt && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... 533 PM...Forecast concerns include... Gusty northwest winds this evening. Mvfr cigs this evening. The back edge of mvfr cigs currently extends from fep to vys and is slowly moving east and is expected to shift east of ord/mdw by 03z this evening. A few flurries will be possible for the next few hours as well. A period of skc is expected overnight with increasing mid clouds Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Northwest winds will remain gusty this evening, into the lower/mid 20kt range. The gusts are expected to slowly diminish through the late evening with gusts ending after midnight, but only medium confidence on these trends with gusts possibly ending earlier then expected. Winds should remain northwest or west/northwest into mid/late Friday morning, then turn west, southwest and eventually southerly by Friday evening, with speeds under 10kts. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 3 AM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744 until 9 AM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN until 3 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
501 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Latest RAP model continues to weaken the pressure gradient at the surface, as well as winds up through the boundary layer. Surface observations are also confirming the RAP model trends. As a result, will expect our windspeeds and gusts out of the north to continue decreasing through the afternoon. After sundown, high surface pressure will start building as our cold upper trough axis makes its way through. As winds go light and variable after sundown under clear night skies and within a cooler air mass, will expect strong radiational cooling to begin. Expecting most of our areas temperatures to eventually drop below freezing, although not expecting much of a wind chill as winds should stay near calm. Did go slightly cooler with the MinT using the NBM 25th percentile. As southwest winds begin to increase after sunrise Friday, will expect a warming trend to begin as temperatures rebound back to more seasonably by the afternoon across much of our area. Our western CWA could even become a little bit warmer being more downwind of the Texas Panhandle. As a result, went slighlty warmer than NBM using the CONSMOS for Fridays MaxT. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Models show generally NW flow aloft through the middle of next week with a generally dry forecast through that time. There is one exception this weekend. Models continue to show a closed low that eventually opens up into a wave moving across Mexico into the southern Plains this weekend. Meanwhile, a shortwave also moves across the northern Plains into the Midwest which will drag a cold front across the fa. This front along with the closed low could bring a chance for precipitation to southern parts of the fa Saturday. Overall, above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into late next week with a general warming trend continuing through Monday, except for a hiccup in the trend Sunday due to some cooler air behind the previously mentioned cold front. However, the temperatures on Sunday will still be near/above average just a bit cooler than Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 Winds are starting to wind down for the night. Wind direction will shift from northerly to southerly overnight. Skies will remain clear. Day && .UPPER AIR... Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021 No Upper Air Flights are planned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 28 62 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 26 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 28 65 41 64 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 27 70 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 25 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 27 61 37 63 / 0 0 0 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14