Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/23/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
611 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
...Major blast of winter on the way for eastern upper MI...
High Impact Weather Potential: Locally very high. Heavy lake effect
snow with near blizzard conditions in parts of eastern upper MI
tonight. Gusty winds, strongest this evening. A quick burst of snow
this evening in spots and/or icy roads developing.
1000mb surface low is just w of James Bay. A sharp and well-defined
cold front extends south across eastern Superior and down the long
axis of Lake MI. Gusty winds usher in strong cold advection
immediately behind the front. This November gale has a large number
of forecast concerns, centering on wind, lingering synoptic precip
that goes from rain to snow, and lake effect.
Presently, warm advection ahead of the cold front has boosted temps
into the upper 30s to mid 40s across northern MI. Developing precip
shield is all liquid, with some shallow convective elements emerging
recently over northern lower MI. This warm air and liquid precip
is not long for this world, with the cold front entering nw lower
MI and western Chip/Mack now, and exiting over Lk Huron by 7 pm. A
number of wind gusts to circa 40kt/45mph have been seen over WI,
though diurnal mixing (aided by some outright sunshine) is aiding
wind production there. A solid isallobaric component will be
present for us to aid wind production, as will mixing over the
increasing unstable lakes. Nam BUFR soundings still support circa
45mph gusts in susceptible coastal areas near Lake MI. No
significant changes made to wind headlines (at least since
Mackinac Co was added earlier).
Strong cold advection will allow precip to transition to snow before
transitioning further to lake effect. A quick burst of snow squall-
type activity is expected between 5 and 9 pm, where synoptic forcing
best intercepts increasing overlake instability. This is of greatest
concern over far northern lower MI, between roughly PLN and GLR
inclusive. A quick inch of wind-blown snow, along with strong winds,
will produce a brief period of potentially hazardous travel
conditions. Elsewhere, wet roads will become icy this evening.
By 11pm, we will transition to pure lake effect snow. 850mb temps
are presently circa -4C, but we will drop about 10C by morning.
Inversion heights on Lk Superior start out near 12k ft mid/late
evening, then lower closer to 8k ft overnight. A potent 500mb
shortwave trof will close off as it passes north of the Sault
tonight. That will keep more synoptic moisture available over
Superior, much more so than even over northern Lks MI/Huron. Hi-res
guidance is near unanimous in developing a dominant band over
central/eastern Superior, with a slightly wobbly wnw to nw fetch
sending it into the vicinity of the twin Saults overnight. Lake-
induced CAPE values are in high triple digits, and the DGZ is very
well-placed in the layer of max ascent to maximize dendrite
production and snow-liquid ratios. (Though we will have enough
wind, and associated fracturing/compaction of snowflakes, to
hinder ratios.) Initial guidance from WPC gave just about an inch
of liquid QPF in the 6hr window ending at 12Z/7am Monday, in a
band over ne Chippewa Co. Have toned that down, just to give some
snowfall accums that I can sort of live with. Have also adjusted
the position of the band ne-ward a touch, to give the HRRR at
least a bit of credence. Recent runs of that model clobber
northern Sugar Isl tonight, while allowing the Sault to escape the
worst of it. But that said, there are still some very large
accums in the forecast for tonight (and into Mon morning), over
the Sault and the north half of Sugar Isl. Someone is getting a
foot of snow (at least) tonight, though it could conceivably end
up being mostly Canadians. There is also a very tight snowfall
gradient toward lesser amounts as you head sw from the Sault.
Upgrading central Chippewa Co to a warning is obvious. The dominant
band expected overnight will produce very high accums and near-
blizzard conditions. Note that (thankfully) the strongest winds will
occur this evening, before the best lake effect gets set. Adding se
Chippewa to an advisory is also reasonable, with the stronger winds
allowing the lake effect snow bands to penetrate more easily into
the Drummond Isl area. Western Chippewa was a tougher call, with
weaker but still reasonably impressive banding expected to poke into
Hulbert/Strongs. But still figure that there are enough snow and
winds to produce winter storm-level impacts there. So upgraded that
zone to a warning as well.
Lake effect snow should be far, far less potent for northern lower
MI. Deeper moisture is not available, and inversion heights (8k
dropping to 5k ft) and lake-induced CAPE (mid triple-digits) are
sharply lower. Localized 1-3" accums expected.
Min temps tonight mainly low-mid 20s. Wind chills will drop well
into the teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
...Lake effect continues through Monday...
High Impact Weather Potential...Moderate. Accumulating snow
continues through Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday morning.
Pattern/Synopsis...The upper level pattern begins the week with
anomalously strong troughing stretching from Hudson Bay down through
the Tennessee Valley...and strong ridging over the western half of
the CONUS. A strong jet 120-140kt exists between these...with cold
air driving southeast across the lakes. The pattern remains
progressive however, with troughing moving off the east coast and
ridging moving into the Great Lakes by late Tuesday. The next
system, a positively tilted trough, moves across the Rockies heading
into mid-week...set to bring more showers just before/heading into
Thanksgiving.
Forecast/Details...We remain in cold cyclonic flow with lake effect
ongoing through the day Monday. DeltaT`s remain aoa 20C with
inversion heights 8-9 kft and plenty of low level moisture to be had
across Ern Upper. Snow (likely banded per hi-res guidance) will
still be going strong, with a dominant band expected to still be
chugging along from lake Superior, across Ern Upper into Nrn Lake
Huron. With boundary layer winds expected to be 290-300 deg believe
Nrn Chippewa county, including the SOO, will see the heaviest
accumulations with the snow band wavering over them the longest...
Nrn Lower will still have ongoing lake effect snow, just to a lesser
extent in intensity, with inversion heights up around 7 kft and
drier mid-levels above the lake convection. Overall expect
additional accumulations of 3-5" across portions of western
Chippewa/Mackinac counties, with the SOO receiving more, upwards
of 6 or 7 inches through the day, with lower amounts (1-2") across
portions of Nrn Lower. Although winds will start the day gusty
they will be slowly diminishing with the slackening gradient
through the day. Regardless, blowing snow is still possible,
especially closer to the Lake Michigan shore.
As we head through the night the environment becomes increasingly
less-favorable for robust LES, with inversion heights lowering,
rapidly loosing saturation through the DGZ, and winds weakening and
backing slightly through the night. Surface ridging moves overhead
early Tuesday and we get into southwest return flow with 850mb
temperatures rising through the day. Overall a quiet period with
temperatures moderating into the upper 30`s/lower 40`s.
Shortwave ridging pushes east of us Wednesday with an elongated
positively tilted trough approaching from the west. A weakening
surface low will be trekking into Ontario across western Lake
Superior through the day, keeping us in gusty southerly flow. WAA
and moisture advection occur throughout the day (PWAT`s get up to
around 0.70" which is at least 1 St. Dev above normal for late
November.) However, believe rain chances will hold off until the
afternoon and possibly even even as the columns takes a bit to
saturate, and relatively little forcing is expected ahead of the
incoming system. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to be milder
(in the mid to upper 40`s) but the gusty winds will make it feel a
bit brisk.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal for now. Watching Wed/Thurs
system
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Heading into Thanksgiving the
aformentioned western trough crosses the upper Great Lakes...with
its associated surface low following suit into southeast Ontario.
This will bring a period of rain/snow showers Wednesday night,
changing over to snow through Thanksgiving Day as colder air filters
in on northwest winds behind the system. Additional precipitation
chances are expected late week through the weekend, as a series of
waves rotate down through the Great Lakes. The best snow potential
looks to be associated with a clipper dropping through the Great
Lakes on Sunday. Overall no huge accumulating snow events expected
late week/through the weekend with highs generally ranging through
the 30`s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 611 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
A period of synoptic snow along a fast-moving cold front will drop
conditions to IFR this evening...with the lowest vsbys and cigs
across far Northern Lower Michigan and the interior/higher
elevations of Northern Lower Michigan where precip will switch
over to snow first. Strong CAA behind the cold front will produce
lake effect snow showers later this evening into Monday...
targeting our typical snowbelt areas of Northern Lower Michigan
directed by W/NW flow. Greatest snow chances and worst conditions
(IFR) will generally be between PLN and TVC as lake snow banding
develops tonight and persists into Monday. Strong W/NW surface
winds of 20 to 30 kts will occasionally gust to 35 kts...
especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline areas of NW Lower
Michigan.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
Strong cold front is crossing northern Lake MI, with very gusty w
to nw winds behind it. Gales expected on all waters tonight and
into Monday morning. Only gradual improvement after that.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST Monday for MIZ088.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ086-087.
WIND ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Monday for MIZ016-020-021-025-031-
095>099.
LH...GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST Monday for LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1001 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will occur across the New York Thruway
counties tonight, shifting southeast as snow showers as far
south as the Twin Tiers Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be
partly to mostly cloudy and chilly. Dry weather is expected
through Thanksgiving Day, but rain and snow will be possible
Thanksgiving night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
1000 PM Update...
Outside of lake effect bands, dewpoints are only into the teens.
The boundary layer does contain some shear which is detrimental
for more organized lake effect. Instead, some of the dry air is
likely getting entrained into the bands; making them more of
heavier burst clusters. They have been briefly quite heavy with
reflectivity of 35-40 dbz on radar, when coming in from Lake
Ontario, yet they also lose intensity while moving inland. So
far activity has been mainly north of the NY Thruway, but a
shortwave is now passing through which will veer flow more
northwesterly to begin shoving things farther south. Then,
primary upper trough axis will swing through around dawn which
will result in a lowering inversion/moisture depth. Lake effect
snow showers and flurries will linger in the Twin Tiers and
Finger Lakes Tuesday morning but the diminished moisture depth
will greatly limit any additional accumulations.
700 PM Update...
Forecast generally going as expected, though near term details
were finessed incorporating some of the latest higher resolution
model guidance. There is a tendency for the shift from the
primary band into northwest-to-southeast multiple bands rather
quickly overnight which may hold back snow totals some. That
said, gusty snow showers and slick roads are still anticipated
as the bands move through in the Advisory area including briefly
exceeding an inch per hour snowfall rates. Highest snow totals
of 3-6 inches, are anticipated for northwestern Oneida County
and far northern to northwestern Onondaga County. The remainder
of the Advisory area, 2-4 inches will be more common.
Previous discussion...
Lake effect snow has been increasing in coverage through the
afternoon, and is mostly still cellular in nature. A few
flurries have even managed to fall as far east as Binghamton.
Expect the bands to tighten up with the loss of daytime
heating/instability and continue to increase in intensity as an
upper level shortwave trough slowly moves across southern
Ontario.
As the trough approaches, and then passes, low level flow will
slowly veer from westerly to northwesterly, allowing the main
lake effect band to concentrate initially on western and
northern Oneida County, then drift south into northern Onondaga
this evening, and southern Onondaga/southern Cayuga later
tonight. Peak snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour will likely
affect Oneida County between 6 PM and 10 PM. Slightly higher
rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected in northern
Onondaga County, mainly between 7 PM and 10 PM, then diminishing
again to around 1 inch per hour between Midnight and dawn in
southern Cayuga and southern Onondaga Counties.
PoP and QPF grids generally followed CAMs runs which are further
south with the main LES band versus the CMCreg and NAM12. Storm
total snowfall may peak around 6 inches in one or two spots,
with peak snowfall rates limited somewhat by relatively short
residence time over any one point (2-3 hours), and also noted
strongest lift is generally lower than the dendritic growth zone
on BUFKIT profiles for the RAP and NAM12 (which are not the
preferred models for band placement).
Light snowfall make make it into the Southern Tier and may even
graze far NE PA Tuesday morning (north of the S/W-B metro), but
with little to no accumulation or impacts expected.
Cool but dry conditions will persist on Tuesday once any
leftover showers end. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with
the highest cloud cover over the Allegheny Plateau as northwest
flow off Lake Ontario continues, adding some limited moisture to
an otherwise dry low level airmass.
Light winds under a surface ridge axis and continued low
dewpoints suggest a pretty cold night Tuesday night, with teens
likely in many areas, especially in places with snow cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
250 PM Update...
Ridging overhead will keep things dry through the middle of the
week. Temperatures turn warmer than on Tuesday, peaking in the 40s
under sunny skies. Overnight, the ridge axis starts to shift
eastward, and southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing warm
air advection into early Thursday. Temperatures overnight will thus
run several degrees warmer than on the previous night, bottoming out
in the 20s and 30s. High clouds will start to move in Thursay
morning ahead of an approaching trough, and while 850mb temperatures
will be turning quite mild at up to 3-5C, increasing cloud cover may
prevent temperatures from reaching much higher than the previous
day. Expect highs ranging in the 40s, possibly the lower 50s in the
typically warmer valleys.
Soundings moisten from top to bottom later in the day Thursday as
the trough starts to dig in from the upper Great Lakes. However, dry
air at lower levels may keep any precipitation from reaching the
surface until the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
250 PM Update...
The remainder of the forecast period should be fairly active. A
strong cold front moves through Thursday night into early Friday,
with precipitation starting off as rain but changing over to snow
into the pre-dawn hours as cold air moves in behind the front. The
trough swings through Friday, closing off and deepening over New
England. As this spins off to our east, we will experience a
tightening pressure gradient and resulting blustery northwest flow.
This will keep in chances for lake effect snow showers Friday and
through the weekend.
As in previous forecast runs, there is an indication among some of
the guidance (particularly the Euro) that we can tap into some
wraparound Atlantic moisture, which would help to enhance totals as
well as the inland extent of lake effect snow. The stacked low over
New England continues to track northeast over the Canadian Maritimes
into Sunday, cutting off our connection to the Atlantic moisture
source. So, while robust northwest flow should keep the lake effect
going, inland extent as well as potential totals would be lessened
compared to previous days. A broad trough over the region and
passing embedded shortwaves will keep us in northwest flow into
early next week, with lingering chances for lake effect snow
showers.
As for temperatures, expect highs ranging in the mid and upper 30s,
possibly closer to 40F in the lower elevations, and overnight lows
generally in the 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flow will veer from westerly to northwesterly overnight into
early Tuesday, with resultant impacts on terminals due to lake
effect snow showers during otherwise VFR conditions. KRME-KSYR
will be impacted first this evening with gusty snow showers
reducing visibility to 1-2 miles, though leaving KRME by 03Z-
04Z. As further veering occurs, brief IFR visibility snow
showers are anticipated to reach KITH and then KBGM within the
few hours around or just after dawn. Dry air eventually shuts
down the lake effect and leads to VFR areawide, though a rogue
flurry could even briefly reach KELM. Winds will generally be
west-northwest, with gusts into the mid teens knots within snow
showers and also during daytime hours Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure and VFR
conditions expected.
Thursday Night through Friday...A system may cause restrictions
with rain and/or snow.
Friday night through Saturday...Chilly pattern including
potential lake effect snow showers, especially NY terminals.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ018.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ017.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MPH
NEAR TERM...MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...MDP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
312 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
LATEST UPDATE...
Discussion/Marine
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
- Burst of Stronger Winds Expected This Evening -
The decision to roll with a Wind Advisory along the lakeshore
still looks good based on the latest model runs. All of the higher
resolution models are indicating solid 40 knot gales for a 3-6
hour period on Lake Michigan. Gales of this magnitude usually
result in Wind Advisory gusts (45 mph or greater) on land.
Multiple runs of the HRRR are indicating 45 mph gusts through the
lakeshore counties at least this evening in the strong cold air
advection just behind the cold frontal passage. The cold front is
surging across Wisconsin at this time and should move into West
Central Lower Michigan up near Ludington towards 500 pm. We are
expecting the potential for some scattered power outages in the
lakeshore counties given the higher gusts there combined with many
trees closer to the warmer lake that still have leaves on them. An
isolated power outage cannot be ruled out inland. The worst of the
wind will be between 5pm and 10pm across our forecast area.
There is very limited moisture associated with this frontal
passage, so lake effect snow will be non existent to limited at
best. Visible imagery tells the story, with little in the way of
clouds upstream of our area over Wisconsin. The best cyclonic flow
will pass off to our north with the shortwave. So, if we see any
snow, the best chance for a dusting will be on the high ground up
Luther over to Tustin.
- Quiet Weather Conditions Monday through Wednesday -
A period of quieter weather is expected from Monday through
Wednesday as a dry northwest upper flow transitions into ridging
aloft. We begin warm air advecting on Tuesday as southwest flow
commences. By Tuesday evening we are too warm aloft for lake
effect snow or clouds after Delta T`s of over 20C tonight. Cannot
rule out a spotty shower on Wednesday in the afternoon, but at
this point we are thinking we will remain dry from Monday through
Wednesday. Highs on Monday in the 30s warm to around 40 on
Tuesday and to near 50 on Wednesday.
- Weather Turns a Bit More Active around Thanksgiving -
A northern plains trough will approach the area Wednesday night
and plow into the Great Lakes on Thanksgiving. The precipitation
will be of the liquid variety Wednesday night. On Thanksgiving,
the precipitation will likely be a rain changing to snow scenario.
There could be some light slushy accumulations on Thanksgiving,
especially in the afternoon and evening. Nothing that looks to
heavy, but something we will be keeping an eye on given the travel
impacts. Both the ECWMF and GFS have surface temperatures falling
below freezing during the evening. Some lake effect snow is
expected from Thursday evening into Friday before it ends.
- Disparity in the Models for Friday through Sunday -
There are differences in the models as we head into next weekend,
which is not surprising at this range in the forecast. The GFS,
ECMWF and Canadian all have the Great Lakes in an upper trough
with different handling of how shortwave energy dives into the
backside of it over our area. We will be cold enough for lake
effect snow, but the surface pattern in the three models is quite
different. We will need a bit more continuity at the surface for
sure to nail down any details.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
Numerous impacts for this TAF period stem from (1) some limited
coverage/duration MVFR cigs this afternoon, (2) strong wind gusts
and associated wind shift expected this evening with cold frontal
passage, and (3) MVFR cigs in wake of cold front later tonight
and tomorrow.
At the outset, radar returns are extensive across southern Lower
Michigan, but most precip is virga, owing to subcloud dry layer.
Nevertheless, top-down erosion of dry layer is yielding some
precip at surface, with associated reductions in cigs and vis. We
will handle this at JXN with a TEMPO group for MVFR for several
hours this afternoon.
A strong cold front will sweep through region tonight. Expect an
abrupt wind shift and high wind gusts for several hours at all
sites, but timing of shift/gusts has uncertainty of an hour or
so. Additionally, high-resolution model guidance suggests a narrow
band of showers/precip will develop along this front. We will opt
for VCSH to account for this precip, given the coverage/timing
uncertainty, but any showers along the front should be fairly
transient.
Behind the front, expect lake-enhanced clouds and some flurries
amid low-level cold advection/cyclonic flow. Some MVFR cigs are
expected, but timing/coverage of these cigs may be revised in
later updates.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021
No change to the Gale Warning this afternoon and evening. It
actually runs through 4am in the morning, but the core of the
gales will occur between 5pm and midnight. The highest winds are
expected immediately behind the cold front between 5pm and 9pm. We
are expecting solid gale gusts (40 knots) to be occurring for a 3
to 6 hour period. Waves will peak tonight in the 10-13 foot range
down wind of the longest fetch, between Whitehall and South
Haven.
We are not expecting significant shoreline erosion or
flooding due to lower lake levels and the short duration of the
gale/waves. The FVCOM does not take water levels to values of
concern, which would be over 582 feet. It appears we will max out
between 580 an 581 feet, which is well below advisory levels.
We will need to issue a Small Craft Advisory overnight that then
runs into Monday night. It will take awhile for the winds and
waves to subside.
The next event comes quickly on the heels of this one for Tuesday
night through much of the rest of the week. Strong southerly flow
which peaks Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely reach Gale
force again. Northwest flow Small Craft Advisory conditions will
then persist through the rest of the week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Kenyon
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
123 PM MST Sun Nov 21 2021
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Broad ridging is set up
over the Pacific Coast with moisture being driven into BC and back
down into eastern MT. Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing
stratus beginning to burn off in the Upper Snake Plain. Watch this
area tonight, as fog may develop in that same area late tonight. We
should see the upper ridge axis pass over Idaho around mid-day
tomorrow. Only concern in the short term will be the potential for
fog development in the Arco Desert and INL areas tomorrow morning.
HRRR highlights this potential from about 12Z to 17Z tomorrow. A
southwesterly flow aloft will be in place by tomorrow night ahead of
the next weather system. Hinsberger
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.
High pressure remains in place for the start of Tuesday, as an upper
level ridge continues to break down throughout the day ahead of our
next system beginning to move in. An upper level trough has
maintained consistent timing over the last few days, focused around
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Being at the furthest southern
extent of this system, precipitation remains low with best chances
for 0.15-0.25" of QPF in the Sawtooth NF, Northern Caribou Range,
and Big Holes. Upslope snow showers will be the main form of
precipitation, with temperatures supporting an all snow event as a
cold front works through along with this trough. Across our lower
elevations, very light if any accumulations are expected with best
chances furthest north and east. Associated with that cold front,
breezy conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
with gusts up to 25-35mph across the Eastern Magic Valley, Snake
River Plain, and higher elevations. That cold front will drop
temperatures by about 10 degrees for Wednesday, bringing highs back
into the upper 20s to mid 30s along with some lingering light snow
showers along the Idaho/Wyoming border.
The remainder of the long term remains fairly quiet, with
Thanksgiving shaping up to be in the 30s to mid 40s under partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Cluster analysis for the end of next week have
a developing upper level ridge further to our west starting
Thursday, bringing some light precipitation over top of that ridge
courtesy of a series of shortwave troughs. QPF remains light,
generally furthest north and east, and primarily all snow. High
pressure is back for this upcoming weekend under decreasingly cloudy
skies as temperatures rise back up in the 40s and 50s. MacKay
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions persist at KSUN, KBYI, and KPIH this afternoon
through tomorrow as an upper level high pressure ridge continues to
develop across southeast Idaho. KDIJ and KIDA have held onto
isolated MVFR CIGS as the last of the lower level clouds in the
region remain in place over northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area. These clouds continue to break up and burn off as the
day goes on, as lingering impacts remain north of TAF sites this
evening with KIDA and KDIJ transitioning back to predominant VFR.
Above these lower level clouds, a few upper level clouds continue to
track overhead through tomorrow, with winds remaining light across
all terminals. Winds generally transition from SW to NE overnight at
KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA, with typical diurnally driven winds at KSUN
and KDIJ. Low lying stratus and fog is unlikely tomorrow morning as
a drier airmass begins to move back into the area, with winds up to
around 10kts tomorrow afternoon. MacKay
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$