Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/19/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
952 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will then move through Southern New England tonight, bringing a period of showers. Blustery and colder weather follows Friday behind this front. High pressure builds into the region Saturday with less wind, but still cool. Turning milder Sunday into Monday with an increasing risk of showers as another frontal system approaches from the west into Tuesday. Turning colder towards midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 945 PM Update: Cold front-related rains taking on an anafrontal character as NW wind shift precedes the rather narrow rain shield. While spotty intermittent showers now are progressing into central MA and into Tolland/Windham Counties, steadiest rains still are back across eastern NY into Berkshire County. Steadiest rains look to arrive before midnight from central MA/Windham County westward before midnight, and not into eastern MA and RI between midnight to 2 AM. Period of steady light to moderate rains expected for most, though may be some deeper convective showers/possible rumble of thunder in the southern waters into Cape Cod/Islands as indicated by recent HRRR runs and the 00z NAM-3km. This is also where some meager instability may be drawn northward (LI 0 to -1/CAPE around 150 J/kg). Mentioned mainly showers here but included an isolated rumble of thunder for these locations. Even as rain exits, a generous amount of post- frontal cloudiness won`t favor viewing of the lunar eclipse tonight. Temps/dewpoints and low temps still look on track so no changes were made there. Previous Discussion... Mostly sunny and warm by mid-November standards this afternoon. Many locations reached the 70F mark, which although almost 20F above normal, are still several degrees short of any daily record. Unfortunately (from the perspective of a warm weather fan), the warm airmass is not going to linger. A cold front currently moving into eastern NY will bring more seasonable temperatures to the region. Timing of the front is roughly 6-7pm in the CT River Valley, 10 to 11pm in Boston to Providence and then offshore by 2 AM. Unlike most cold fronts, the bulk of the clouds and precipitation will be trailing the actual cold front (called an anafront). Regional radars show the precipitation band to be about 180 miles wide, so it will take roughly 6 to 8 hours to move through any location. Rainfall, as typical with these situations, won`t be all that heavy, so looking for roughly 0.2 to 0.4 inches of total rainfall by the time it ends late tonight. Temperatures will quickly drop several degrees when the front moves through, and then continue to fall overnight. Across the highest elevations of Franklin and Hampshire County the precipitation might end with a few snowflakes as temperatures in that area will be into the mid 30s at that point. By daybreak Friday, most of the area will have dropped to the mid/upper 30s, except lower 40s hanging on across the Cape. Given all the clouds and rain, most of the region will unfortunately not have an opportunity to view the lunar eclipse. The only place that might get lucky and sneak a view for the last part of the eclipse will be in far western part of CT and MA as the clouds will be starting to break up at that time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Residual light showers and clouds across the Cape and Islands first thing will come to an end by 9am. Should work out to a partly to mostly sunny day for most of the region. Forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer will deepen up to about 3000 ft by early afternoon. With winds of 25kt to about 30kt at that level, we should see the surface winds get a little gusty during the middle of the day. Leaned toward the guidance that showed the stronger wind gusts to populate into the forecast grids so expect peak gusts near 30mph. With WNW winds and some downsloping, I did lean toward slightly warmer guidance for high temperatures, but with 925mb temperatures around -1C, it`s going to be tough for anyone to reach 50F. If that happens, it would probably be on the Outer Cape or Nantucket. Not a lot of low level moisture, but with the WNW flow moving over the Berkshires, it should be enough to generate a bit more in the way of clouds and perhaps a few flurries along the eastern slopes. Friday night should be primarily clear. With high pressure building over the region, expecting the winds to quickly diminish. Should be pretty good radiational cooling setup, so leaned toward some of the cooler guidance. Expect lows pretty much in the 20s, with low 30s restricted to parts of the Cape. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights... * Dry and cool Sat with light winds * Risk of showers increases late Sun into Mon, with locally heavier showers possible across eastern New England * Turning colder Tue/Wed, with a few rain/snow showers possible Latest guidance suite is in reasonably good agreement with the overall pattern though Monday. The uncertainty rises after then with the handling of a mid level trough moving east from the Pacific Ocean early next week, and how that impacts the downstream mid level flow. overall, nothing unusual for this time range of the forecast. Given the sensitivity of the models to energy over the Pacific, would not be surprised to see changes to the forecast in the coming days. Early indications are that Thanksgiving Day across southern New England should be dry with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Saturday into Sunday... Much of this time should be dry with a high pressure moving across our region. Increasing rainfall chances late Sunday as this high pressure departs and a cold front approaches from the west. Should be quite a bit warmer Sunday than Saturday with the warm advection pattern. Sunday night into Monday... This period should be the focus for our next shot at some precipitation as a cold front traverses our region. Some questions to how quickly this front moves off to our east. Should be all rain with above normal temperatures expected. Tuesday into Thursday... Have lower confidence in the details for this portion of the forecast. As of this writing, the GFS was the most bullish on developing a slower, stronger coastal surface low pressure beneath a deep mid level trough. While this idea should to be completely dismissed as a possibility, am favoring the more progressive solutions as suggested by the Canadian, ECMWF and UKMET. The mid level pattern is not one where low pressures tend to linger near southern New England. Thus, favoring a dry forecast into Thanksgiving, for now. Being a week into the future, still lots of time for the forecast details to change. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High Confidence. Mainly VFR area-wide. Primary weather maker is a cold front that is pushing east across NY State at this time. This front was just on the doorstep of western MA, and should move into eastern MA about 03-05Z, and then off the coast between 07-10Z. Expecting a wind shift to the west and ceilings falling to MVFR levels as this front passes. Widespread showers will occur along and behind this front. About 6 to 8 hours after the frontal passage, we should see the showers end with a return to VFR conditions. So pretty much the entire region should be VFR prior to 12Z Friday. The exception should be ACK and the outer Cape, where they will be last to experience this front, however they too will be VFR no later than 15Z Friday. Surface northwest winds are expected to gust in the 24-29 kt range mid day Friday, however VFR conditions will continue. Winds diminish late afternoon Friday with VFR continuing through Friday night. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Timing in TAF has a +/- 1 hour error bar. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Timing in TAF has a +/- 1 hour error bar. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Slight chance SN across the higher terrain. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Cold front will move across the waters late tonight and first thing Friday. Expecting gusty northwest winds to develop during the day Friday, with frequent 25-30kt gusts in the afternoon. As a result, seas will remain on the rough side. The Small Craft Advisory currently up for most of the coastal waters into Friday night makes sense to keep up. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain likely. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Nash NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nash SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Loconto/Nash MARINE...Belk/Loconto/Nash
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
926 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front with limited moisture moves through the region tonight. High pressure returns Friday with cool and dry conditions in place for the weekend. The next front will move through Monday, accompanied by a better chance for rain. A colder air mass will move in behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday, before moderating by Thanksgiving. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A cold front is moving into the Upstate at 23z. A few showers have developed in the Piedmont ahead of the front in area of weak low level convergence. Moisture remains quite low with precipitable water near 1 inch just ahead of the line...suggested by RAP and HRRR. Based on radar, the band of showers may hold together and move through the northern Midlands this raised pops there to chance. HREF mean has the front moving into the forecast area early tonight, pushing east of the forecast area after midnight. A much cooler and drier airmass will move in behind the front with surface high pressure around 1034mb leading to a tightened pressure gradient supporting strong cold advection through tonight as winds shift out of the north and skies clear into Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s NW to upper 40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Clearing skies and cooler temperatures will move in Friday as high pressure slides into the Mid-Atlantic states. Friday night will be chilly, but the heart of the cold air mass will slide by to the north. Still, I expect many locations to get down near freezing, especially east of I-26 where overnight winds will be lighter and radiational cooling will be a bit stronger. In areas where the winds become light, there will be some patchy frost. It is possible that future shifts will need to issue a frost advisory for areas where the growing season is till hanging on. On Saturday, a dry wedge will dominate with the surface high pressure extending from southern New England down into North Carolina. Other than some high clouds, skies will be mainly clear, allowing temps to rebound into the mid 50s to low 60s, just a bit below normal for late November. The air mass will start to modify some on Saturday night, but northern areas could see a pretty quick drop in temps after sunset under lighter winds. There could be some isolated frost as well, but temps will only bottom out in the mid 30s north to near 40 south. Upper level moisture will start to increase on Sunday ahead of the next system as a reasonably strong jet moves into the mid south. The air mass will continue to gradually modify, with temps rising into the 60s despite an increase in clouds. The low levels will still be to dry to support much in the way of chances for rain until later Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... On Monday, a deep trof develops at mid and upper levels in the eastern U.S. This will drag a significant cold front through the area. Due to the strength of the jet, there will be some moisture transported northward ahead of the front across the area, with a chance of showers everywhere. Overall amounts are not expected to be particularly high with 1/4 inch or less expected. This is due to both the rapid translation of the system through the area, and the still relatively limited low level moisture. Global model means have the area drying our fairly quickly by later in the day on Monday. The bigger story Monday will be the significantly colder air mass behind the front. Winds will be on the increase, and strong low level cold advection will keep temps in the 50s all day, and breezy conditions will make it feel even cooler. Monday night will be a quintessential cold advection night with northerly winds bringing down anomalously cold low level air, with 850 temps up to 10 degrees C below normal. Lows will bottom out a little below freezing everywhere despite the wind staying up. The cold air mass will remain in place Tuesday with max temps struggling to get much above 50 despite quite a bit of sunshine. The winds will die down Tuesday night as the surface high pressure area moves nearby, with the coldest night of the season so far expected. Lows will get down to the mid to upper 20s by Wednesday morning, a hard freeze for many. A slow moderation in temps is expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure slides south of the region. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will come through tonight. Associated band of showers along and ahead of the front expected to dissipate later this evening with loss of heating, without significant upper energy to work with. Some breaks in the cloud cover and light winds this evening ahead of the front could provide some fog potential at AGS/OGB. Otherwise, later tonight, drier low level air will enter the region behind the front and winds will shift to NNW and stay up some, which is expected to preclude fog. VFR Friday with winds veering to NE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR Friday night/Saturday, with some stratus potential late Saturday night/early Sunday. Restrictions may occur on Monday ahead of the next front, with breezy conditions behind the front on Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
603 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 .UPDATE... A very persistent area of light rain showers continues to creep toward the north over Maverick and Zavala Counties. Short term models show this dissipating over the next few hours. We have updated the forecast to keep slight chance POPs for a little while longer. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ AVIATION... Northerly to northeasterly winds continue this evening, but they are beginning to weaken. This trend will continue for the next few hours. VFR ceilings at all terminals will remain into the evening. There will be gradual clearing from east to west. Winds will shift to easterly late Friday morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... Gusty north winds are in place across all of south central Texas as of early this afternoon. The 24 hour temperature change plot shows readings are a solid 15-25 degrees colder than this time yesterday. Some lingering convection mainly in the form of showers is also noted across the Winter Garden region eastward into the I-37 corridor south of San Antonio. The last few HRRR runs latch on to this activity and show it persisting into the late afternoon hours. Earlier convection across western Edwards county was lingered longer than anticipated and produced some 1/2" to near 2" amounts along FM 674. Some amounts near 3/4" are also noted over far southwest Atascosa county. The main concern for tonight will be the low temperature forecast. We have plenty of clouds in place as of now, but we do expect a gradual thinning of cloud cover across most of the region. The lone exception will be across the Rio Grande plains into portions of the southern Edwards Plateau where southerly flow develops around 850mb, leading to continued low cloud cover. Forecast soundings as far north as Austin also show a thin layer of moisture remaining in place overnight around 850mb. We do expect dry air to remain in place and near surface winds will eventually decrease. However, wind speeds around 925 mb will not drop off and this may keep some mixing going in the boundary layer overnight. Numerical MOS has also trended upward for overnight lows tonight. Current thoughts are the best chance for any near freezing temperatures would remain locked up in the Hill Country in low-lying areas such as river bottoms and creeks. With this in mind, we will issue a Special Weather Statement highlighting near freezing temperatures in low-lying areas across the Hill Country. Morning cloud cover lingers across the Rio Grande plains, then decreases during the afternoon hours. All areas can expect mostly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon along with highs in the 60s. Southerly winds in the low-levels will return to all areas Friday night, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Breezy southerly flow will be in place on Saturday ahead of the next system. This trough axis will be moving into the Central Plains with a deepening surface low near the Panhandle. This low will move to the east by Saturday night sending the next cold front into South- Central Texas during the day on Sunday. There should be enough moisture for a slight chance of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with the frontal passage across the eastern and southern zones, but this should be another front without appreciable rainfall. Temperatures ahead of the front on Saturday will be in the 70s with some 80s possible in the southern counties on Sunday before the FROPA. Behind the front, temperatures should be in the 60s to lower 70s on Monday. Dry weather with a slight warming trend can then be expected through Wednesday. The forecast then becomes a bit more uncertain. The GFS and ECMWF both show a cut-off low to our west Thursday with a frontal boundary somewhere in the Southern Plains. This pattern has a chance to bring widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures at some point in the Thursday to Saturday timeframe next week. However, how much rain and how cool temperatures get is very uncertain at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 42 65 48 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 41 65 45 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 66 46 76 58 / - 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 38 63 47 73 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 47 70 50 78 57 / 20 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 37 64 46 73 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 44 68 47 76 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 42 65 45 75 58 / - 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 44 65 47 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 45 66 49 74 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 48 68 51 77 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...05 Long-Term...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
528 PM EST Thu Nov 18 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 410 PM EST THU NOV 18 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level trof extending from Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes. Under 850mb temps of -8 to -11C, LES is ongoing off Lake Superior under w to wnw low-level flow. A sfc trof is dropping s across Lake Superior. The combination of increasing convergence vcnty of the trof and deepening moisture profile to 15kft or so has led to an increase in LES during the day today. Overnight snowfall across the w was on the light side, but during the day today, webcams/radar imagery have indicated heavier LES. Webcam near Nisula suggests at least 2-3 of inches of snowfall in that area late morning to the current time. All of the other avbl webcams across the w indicate much less snowfall today. To the e, heavier LES organizing along the trof is just now moving onshore across the eastern fcst area. As a sfc trof moves s over the next few hrs, expect a good burst of snow to push inland across Alger/Luce/northern Schoolcraft counties. NW flow LES will then organize in its wake. With a deep moisture profile to around 15kft thru the evening, expect mdt to briefly hvy LES in that area. Moisture depth will diminish during the overnight, but it appears bands tied to Lake Nipigon preconditioning will probably affect portions of Luce County. As a result, greatest snow accumulations by daybreak will likely end up there. In general, expect snow accumulations of 2-5 inches across Alger/Luce/northern Schoolcraft counties. Bands will extend into southern Schoolcraft and should result in snow accumulations of 2-4 inches there, greatest n and e of Manistique. LES will temporarily increase into Gogebic/Ontonagon counties over the next few hrs as winds shift more to the nw, but accumulations won`t warrant an advy. Sfc high pres ridge will reach far western Upper MI before sunrise, so there may be an opportunity for skies to at least partially clear out to allow temps to fall into the teens F. Otherwise, expect 20s for lows tonight. Sfc high pres ridge will quickly shift e across the fcst area on Fri and will be e of the area by late aftn. Lingering LES into the eastern fcst area will end as winds back around to an offshore direction. Any additional snow accumulation should be less than 1 inch. Although lake stratocu will clear out w to e with passing high pres ridge, considerable high cloudiness will already be overspreading the area under developing waa regime in response to next shortwave moving across s central Canada. Expect highs in the 30s F across the board. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 415 PM EST THU NOV 18 2021 The extended period is expected to start out dry across the area as a weak zonal pattern aloft begins to set in. However, height falls at the sfc, southwesterly winds with limited shear aloft, and a delta-T around 13F between the water sfc of Lake MI and the top of the inversion layer Friday night could bring some light lake-effect showers over the far east near Schoolcraft and Luce Counties. Expecting rain to be the primary precip type, but leaving in a slight chance for snow as perhaps it`s possible should ice crystals form (this is based on the assumption that if the dry layer in the lower levels is overcome, temps in the atmospheric profile could cool enough to allow snowfall). Otherwise, besides some breezy conditions on the downslope areas near Lake Superior, expect quiet weather Friday night. This quiet weather should continue into Saturday, although there is a slight chance for some light rain showers far east as there may be enough forcing and moisture transport to overcome the dry layer near 800mbs. Starting Saturday night, another Clipper system looks to dig off of the Rocky Mtns and move into Northern Plains. This system looks to bring a strong cold front across the area Sunday into Sunday night. Also, a shortwave in the Southern Plains Saturday night looks to lift northeast towards the Upper Great Lakes, arriving late Sunday. As these two shortwaves phase, we could see some precip move across the entire area, namely over the northwest wind lake-effect belts from Sunday afternoon to Sunday night. While I`m expecting rain to be the initial precip type in the east Sunday, could see some snow mixed in further west along and behind the cold front of the Clipper system. Could definitely see some lake-enhancement in the northwest wind lake-effect belts Sunday night as delta-Ts look to get into the mid-teens. As the phased low moves out of our area Monday, expect the transition to pure lake-effect snow in the north/northwest wind lake-effect belts. Overall, wouldn`t be surprised if we need to issue some winter weather headlines for the northwest wind lake- effect areas Sunday night into Monday, as there could be quite a few inches of high SLR snow. Expect the lake-effect snow to end Monday night and Tuesday as a ridge changes the winds and warms the area. Could see another quick break from precip Tuesday as the ridge peaks over us. However, another shortwave from Alberta looks to move over us sometime around the middle of next week. It looks possible for another Alberta Clipper system to move over Upper MI around Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 528 PM EST THU NOV 18 2021 Lake effect shsn will continue off Lake Superior into tonight under w to nw winds. Under these conditions, expect MVFR conditions to prevail at IWD. Early Fri morning, VFR conditions will return to IWD as passage of a sfc high pressure ridge axis shifts lake effect shsn/stratocu to the ne of the terminal. At CMX, MVFR conditions should mostly prevail into Fri morning. Some brief periods of IFR vis in shsn will occur this evening. Passage of a sfc high pressure ridge will bring a return to VFR. WNW winds at CMX will gust to around 30kt into the early evening. At SAW, VFR conditions will continue into Fri. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 419 PM EST THU NOV 18 2021 Northwesterly gale-force gusts up to 40 knots are expected to continue across the east half of Lake Superior tonight while any lingering gale gusts to 35 knots across the w end this evening. After a brief period of lighter winds under 20kt associated with passing high pres ridge Fri morning, winds will begin to increase again from w to e in the aftn/evening. Sfc pres falls are expected to bring south to southwesterly winds up to 30 knots Friday night. Winds should diminish to 20 knots or less by Saturday. Winds should remain that way until Sunday afternoon, as a Clipper system is expected to bring north to northwesterly gale- force gusts up to 40 knots across the lake Sunday night through Monday. Light freezing spray is possible as this system passes the lake, even into Monday night. By Tuesday, winds are expected to become 20 knots or less again. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ006-007-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Friday for LSZ249>251-265>267. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning until 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ240>242-263. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...07 MARINE...TAP/Rolfson
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 At 20Z this afternoon, the forecast area finds itself within northwest flow aloft as the upper trough moves east of the MS River valley toward the northeast US. While we are still pretty dry in the low and mid levels, water vapor imagery shows moisture within the low-amplitude ridge across the Intermountain West, which will lead to increased cloud cover tomorrow. A weak trough is noted off the Pacific coast. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure is centered over KS and OK and has led to much lighter winds from the northwest compared to yesterday. This along with neutral temperature advection has kept temperatures on the cooler side in spite of sunny skies. We look to remain mostly clear during the overnight hours aside from some thin cirrus ahead of the bulk of clouds moving in Friday. Low- level winds turn back to the south tonight and should prevent temps from dropping off as much as this morning, although it still looks chilly around 30 degrees to start the day. By morning, the surface high pushes east with a deepening lee trough in the High Plains, and a 40-50 kt LLJ looks to develop over central KS as well. This leads to slightly warmer temps and another windy day to end the work week. The pressure gradient is progged to tighten to 7-9mb across the area, and forecast soundings show mixing up to 900mb. There seems to be a general consensus for sustained winds of 15-25mph with gusts of 30-40mph, peaking around midday. The 12Z/18Z HRRR runs as well as the 15Z RAP suggest a brief period mid to late morning when gusts could reach advisory criteria, which seems plausible if winds pick up quickly enough and we can tap into the LLJ before it diminishes. However, am not confident that it would be widespread enough or long enough in duration to warrant a headline at this time. That being said, winds do look strong enough for a brief window of very high fire danger around midday. Think there should be enough cloud cover with increasing low-level moisture (RH in the upper 20 to low 30 percents) to preclude any headlines there as well, but conditions still don`t look conducive for burning given the strong winds. The pressure gradient slowly relaxes heading into Saturday with the surface low pushing south into the OK/TX panhandles, so winds should be lighter with highs a bit warmer in the mid to upper 50s. The aforementioned Pacific trough moves across the Rockies during the day, setting the stage for a weak frontal boundary to bring our temperatures down slightly for Sunday. The bigger cool-down comes on Monday as the Canadian trough swings through the Upper Midwest and brings stronger CAA into our area. A more amplified ridge quickly moves across the area on Tuesday to bring temperatures up again before a more notable mid-week system. Precip chances look tough to come by, as that system is really our only shot this forecast period and chances are small as of now - looking better toward MO. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as light winds back to the south overnight in response to a deepening system over eastern CO. A 45 to 50 kt LLJ jet develops over central KS, possibly impacting KMHK aft 11Z. Model soundings are inconsistent in the magnitude of the marginal LLWS, and given that its speed shear with increasing sfc winds anticipated, decided to leave out the mention. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...22