Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/15/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
947 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving storm system will bring rain and mountain
snow to the region tonight. Behind this storm system, cool and
breezy conditions are expected across the region for Monday and
Tuesday with a few lingering lake effect rain or snow showers. Dry
and milder conditions are expected for the middle of the week before
a cold front brings more rain showers to the region for late
Thursday into Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 947 PM EST...Upper level shortwave trough is located over
the Great Lakes and will be heading eastward tonight. At the
surface, low pressure has now moved towards the Toronto area and
be continuing to move northeast from Lake Ontario along the St.
Lawrence Rive Valley for tonight.
Steady light precipitation has spread across all of eastern New
York and is now starting to head towards western New England.
All parts of the area will be seeing some light precip over the
next several hours. As precip begins, temps have been falling
thanks to wet-bulbing, with temps now ranging from the mid 30s
to mid 40s across the area. While precip has been beginning at
all rain across the area, locations at 1000 ft and above have
been seeing a changeover to snow, as wet-bulbing allows temps to
fall close to the freezing mark. NYS Mesonet web cams have been
showing some light snow occurring across parts of the
Adirondacks and Catskills, as well as elevated areas outside the
immediate Mohawk Valley.
The steady precip will continue over the next few hours, with
all snow generally remaining above 1000 feet. A few wet
snowflakes can`t totally be ruled out as low as 500 ft in
elevation, but it would be a rain/snow mix for these areas. 3km
HRRR shows a dry slot will quickly move in from the southwest
around midnight, allowing precip to taper off from southwest to
northeast. Total QPF amounts will be rather light only ranging
from 0.05 to 0.15". The southern Adirondacks can expect higher
amounts ranging 0.20 to 0.30", especially along the south facing
slopes where topography will help enhance precip amounts.
Those above 1500ft have the better chance of observing cold
enough boundary layer temperatures to support some accumulating
snow but with the period of showers only lasting about 3 to 6
hours, there won`t much time to accumulate wet snow. Therefore,
only expecting a coating to under 1 inch for the southern
Greens, eastern Catskills, Rensselaer Plateau, and northern
Berkshires. The one exception will be the southern Adirondacks
where 1 to 3 inches is possible due to lake effect and
topographical enhancements.
While the dry air aloft should clear the mid level clouds,
forecast soundings suggests moisture stays trapped underneath a
low-level inversion thanks to the ongoing WAA which should keep
skies cloudy for the late night hours. Therefore, temperatures
only cool down into the low to mid 30s with upper 20s in the
higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Our upper level trough will rotate overhead tomorrow with its
trough axis crossing through eastern NY and western New England
tomorrow morning. In doing so, upper level winds will abruptly
shift from the west-southwest to the west-northwest inducing
cold air advection across the area. The incoming Canadian air
mass characterized by 850hPa isotherms near -5C to -7C will
supersede the 13C delta-T threshold to start up lake effect
snow showers. In addition, the moist cyclonic flow in place
aloft will also support rain and snow showers. Most of the high
res guidance suggests these showers will mainly impact the
southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and the northern
Taconics, southern Greens and northern Berkshires which is where
we placed chance and likely POPs most of the day. In fact,
froude numbers within this northwest flow regime are expected to
be sub-critical through 18 UTC Monday which should keep most of
the precipitation on the upwind side of the Taconics, southern
Greens, northern Berkshires. By afternoon sufficient cold air
advection should be underway and the froude number become
critical. This means precip should shift to fall near the
mountains crests. We adjust QPF and POPs to reflect this
transition. Otherwise, p-type even in these higher elevations
should be a mix of rain and snow as near surface boundary layer
temperatures remain slightly above freezing during the day.
During any steadier showers p-type could transition to mainly
snow resulting in a coating to a few tenths of snow. Elevations
above 2000ft in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks
will accumulate appreciable amounts between one to at most two
inches during the day.
Otherwise, tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and blustery thanks to
cold air advection resulting in deep boundary layer mixing. Northwest
winds gust up to 20 to 30mph with the strongest winds down the
Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region and Berkshires were
westerly flow can be channeled down the valley. High
temperatures should rise into the low to mid 40s for valley
areas with hill towns and higher terrain in the mid to upper
30s.
The upper level trough gradually shifts into New England Monday
night with upper level riding building into the Ohio Valley
behind it. Breezy winds continue overnight thanks to a tightening
pressure gradient but upper level remain out of the northwest
which should direct additional lake effect bands into far
southern Herkimer County, Schoharie County or even the eastern
Catskills. Overnight lows turn chilly as skies partially clear
with all areas dropping into the mid to upper 20s or near 30-32
in the immediate valley areas.
Expect increasing sun on Tuesday as high pressure builds into
the Northeast with any weakening lake effect bands early in the
day becoming redirected into the southern Adirondacks before
dissipating. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper
40s with westerly wind staying a bit breezy with gusts up to
20mph still possible.
Clear skies Tuesday night will fade behind increasing clouds
later on in the night as warm air advection returns ahead of our
next disturbance. Thanks to clear skies for at least the first
half of the night, temperatures should respond well to the
radiational cooling and drop into the mid to upper 20s for most
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Wednesday, upper level shortwave ridging will be moving across
the region from west to east. At the surface, a warm front will be
lifting northward from southwest to northeast. Although it will
probably be fairly cloudy thanks to some moisture trapped beneath an
inversion, it should be dry for most of the area. Can`t totally
rule out a few passing showers across the Adirondacks, but most of
the moisture/dynamics will remain northwest of the area. With the
clouds around, temps will probably be stuck in the 40s, despite the
rising temps aloft, although some southern areas could reach the low
50s by late in the day.
After a quiet night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s for Wed
night, our region should solidly be in the warm sector for Thursday.
With enough breaks of sun expected ahead of the approaching cold
front, temps should reach well into the 50s, with some low 60s
possible for valley areas. Showers along the frontal boundary will
move across the area for late in the day into the first part of
Thursday night. With this being a progressive boundary, no heavy
or excessive rainfall is expected, but all areas will have a quick
shot at some showers as the front passes through the region.
Behind the boundary, the upper level trough will move across the
Northeast for Friday. Temps will be much cooler, with mid 30s to
mid 40s for highs. While it should be dry for most areas, some lake
effect rain and snow showers can`t be ruled out for northern and
high terrain areas.
High pressure should allow for dry and seasonably cool weather on
Saturday, but another northern stream system may approach by Sunday,
with some more rain and snow showers. Daytime temps will continue
to be in the 30s and 40s, with 20s and 30s at night.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A clipper low will bring will some rain and snow to the region
overnight. In the cyclonic flow, the upper low and a sfc trough
will bring periods of clouds and some showers tomorrow late
morning into the afternoon.
VFR conditions will continue early this evening, but clouds will
thicken and lower with a period MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys expected at
the TAF sites with rain moving in, with the greatest chance of
IFR at KGFL/KPSF, and low MVFR conditions are KPOU/KALB. We kept
the IFR conditions going especially in terms of cigs at
KGFL/KPSF. The pcpn may transition to snow/snow showers at these
two sites. For KALB/KPOU, we have maintained MVFR cigs/vsbys
with the chance of rain diminishing between 06Z-09Z/MON. A
little snow may mix in at KALB.
Towards 13Z-14Z/MON some improvement to high MVFR cigs is
expected at all the TAF sites including KGFL/KPSF. The flight
levels will improve to VFR cigs at KALB/KPOU in the late
morning. KPSF/KGFL may have brief rain/snow showers with cigs
flirting with low MVFR/IFR levels. An improvement to VFR
conditions at all the TAF sites is possible in the late
afternoon with an upper level disturbance passage.
The winds will be south/southwest at less than 10 kts tonight.
They will veer to the southwest/west at 7-12 kts in the late
morning into the early afternoon. The winds will continue from
the west at 8-15 kts with some gusts around 20 kts at KALB.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A disturbance tonight will spread rain or brief rain
snow mix into the valley and accumulating snow for the higher
terrain tonight. A cold front tomorrow will usher in cooler
temperatures along with breezy winds and continued rain and snow
showers, especially for areas west of the Hudson River.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected at least through Wednesday. A
period of rain and higher terrain snow will occur tonight
resulting in up to a tenth of an inch for valley areas with up
to 0.25 inches in the higher terrain areas, especially the
southern Adirondacks due to topographical and lake enhancements.
Otherwise, just some lingering rain and snow showers on Monday
will produce an additional tenth of an inch of precip, mainly
for the southern Greens, Taconics, northern Berkshires, eastern
Catskills and southern Greens due to upslope and lake
enhancements. While rivers remain elevated from the weekend
rainfall events, the forthcoming light events will not lead to
flooding on any of the rivers in the NWS Albany Hydrologic
Service Area.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
854 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021
Winds continue to downslope bringing gusts of 45-50 MPH with pockets
of 60 MPH from the I-25 and Highway 93 corridors. Winds are expected
through 08Z for the foothill areas. HRRR and NBM lacked strong gusts
in the last few runs but the ARW model guidance catches downslope
winds and tighter gradients throughout the foothills and urban
corridor. Additionally, above-normal temperatures are expected
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021
Northwest flow aloft around a ridge over the Great Basin brought
windy conditions to the higher foothills and Front Range
mountains. This ridge will flatten and shift east over Colorado
for Monday. With weakening flow aloft, don`t expect it to be as
windy tonight in the higher foothills and mountains, but gusts to
50 mph will be possible. The airmass will continue to warm
tonight. It should be a mild night above the inversion and where
winds mix the airmass. For Monday, 700mb temperatures warm to
about 7-9C which should push highs into the mid 70s. Cross
sections show enough moisture for high clouds at times, but not
enough low level moisture over the mountains for any clouds or
flurries.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021
Models have flat upper ridging moving east of the CWA Monday
night into Tuesday morning. The flow aloft increase Tuesday
afternoon and night with a weak upper trough to push across the
forecast area. The biggest affect on our weather will be a decent
cold front that moves across Tuesday evening. The QG Omega fields
show upward vertical velocity for the CWA late Monday night and
Tuesday. Subsidence is progged after that through Wednesday night.
Moisture over the CWA is lacking Monday night into Tuesday. Even
with the upper trough moving across and the associated cold front
with upslope behind it Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday; moisture is
still meager. Will go with "likely"s Tuesday night in the mountains
for light snow. On the plains, will go with 10-30%s from midnight
Tuesday night through noon Wednesday. The QPF fields on the ECMWF
shows a bit of measurable snowfall in a few areas of the plains
with that. The amounts are light and the other models have nothing.
Temperatures are still warm on Tuesday. Wednesday`s highs cool
off significantly from Tuesday`s.
For the later days, flat upper ridging is progged for the CWA on
Thursday and Friday. The weekend looks to have weak upper troughing
in place. As a result there will be "chance"s of alpine snow
showers but nothing significant. The plains look dry with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 423 PM MST Sun Nov 14 2021
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Gusty west to
northwest winds will begin to decrease by 05Z shifting
southwesterly tonight into early Monday morning; therefore typical
drainage winds are unlikely. Wind gusts will increase to 20-25kts
starting as early as 14Z at KDEN and KAPA and KBJC following
after at 17Z. By Monday evening, wind gusts will decrease by 00Z
with SCT high cloud bases at 20k ft.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AD
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...AD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
440 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
This afternoon`s water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed the
continuing northwest flow pattern across the central CONUS as a
storm system tracks northeast across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region. A small surface high pressure area continued to pull away
from the Central Plains, which was evident by the slight increase in
wind speed out of the southwest in the wake of the surface high. A
westerly component surface wind up to around 10 mph will help keep
temperatures from bottoming out too much, so we are looking at lows
early Monday morning in the mid to upper 30s for the most part.
On Monday, the lower troposphere will be much warmer thanks to the
persistent downslope flow off the Rockies eradicating the remnant
cool airmass. Thus, Monday afternoon we are looking at highs some 15
to perhaps 20 degrees warmer than this afternoon. The MSLP gradient
will not be that great with only a very weak leeside trough across
eastern Colorado, so wind speeds in the afternoon will generally be
10 mph or less.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
The classic downslope warming pattern will continue into Tuesday. A
surface leeside trough will be deeper, but also broader and pushed
out across much of western Kansas such that we will still be dealing
with quite light winds during the time of peak heating in the
mid/late afternoon. Most areas will see highs well into the mid to
upper 70s again. Far southwest Kansas stands the best chance at
seeing some lower 80s for highs, and in fact our latest official
forecast will call for 83F at Liberal and 85F at Elkhart.
After Tuesday, we will be shifting back to typical November weather.
A fairly strong cold front will advance south late Tuesday Night,
marking the beginning of a cooler pattern for at least a couple of
days. The cold front will be another dry one for western Kansas,
however, as the main trough axis will be north of us. Given how
progressive the hemispheric regime will remain next week, the colder
air mass will not stick around with temperatures rebounding to upper
50s/lower to perhaps mid 60s end of week/early next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 440 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
Excellent flying weather and VFR will continue through this TAF
cycle, with scattered cirrus tonight trending toward SKC Monday.
Winds will be light (less than 12 kts) with no impact on aviation
operations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 36 77 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 39 79 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 35 78 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
P28 38 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
551 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
A good bit of cloud cover remains across our area this afternoon -
in spite of eroding stratus over our eastern CWA - which is being
replaced by increasing mid level clouds coming in from the west. For
tonight, a weak mid level disturbance slides through our area with
warm air advection overspreading the region. This in conjunction
with mid to low level frontogenesis may produce very light
precipitation, generally north of Interstate 90, later tonight into
early Monday morning. Both RAP and HRRR soundings indicate dry air
in the low levels, so precipitation will be hard to come by, but
cannot rule out some reaching the ground. As far as precipitation
type, several variables will come into play. Models indicate surface
temperatures steadying out or rising slightly with the warm air
advection, which will bring some locations above freezing. At the
same time, soundings indicate a warm layer between 850-925 mb,
though wet bulb temperatures will be hovering right at or just below
0C, which could keep precipitation in the form of snow. So at this
point anything that reaches the ground will be mainly in the form of
rain or snow, though cannot rule out some freezing rain/sleet
dependent on how much wet bulb affects come into play. Either way,
the light and scattered nature of any activity should mitigate any
impacts. Lows tonight will be coldest east of Interstate 29 - in the
mid to upper 20s, though as mentioned above these temperatures will
be rising later in the night. To the west lows will be in the 30s to
near 40.
On Monday an upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to
nudge eastward. With continuing warm air advection, we will see
quite an increase in temperatures, as highs get into the lower to
mid 60s through the MO River corridor. Temperatures are a little
more tricky back to the north and east with some models lingering
cloud cover over those areas through the day. Because of that, highs
will remain in the 40s over east central SD and southwestern MN.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
The upper level ridge axis slides over the region on Monday night
and Tuesday. At the surface, a trough tracks across the area during
the day. The main affect from this feature will be increasing winds
with a tightening surface pressure gradient out ahead of the system,
and enhanced mixing behind it as winds shift to westerly. Given NBM
wind speeds were on the low side, so adjusted them upwards a bit.
NAEFS ensembles indicate 850/925 mb temperatures in the better than
95th percentile with respect to climatology on that day, and we are
looking at highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s.
Big changes will be in store by Wednesday as the surface trough
moves eastward and an upper level trough deepens over the Northern
Plains. This will bring highs back into the upper 30s to mid 40s. In
addition, with the strong cold air advection and good mixing, it
will be another windy day with soundings indicating winds of around
40 kts at the top of the mixed layer, and continued to populate
NBM 90th percentile winds for that period.
The upper level trough slides eastward by Thursday with a quasi
zonal flow developing through the end of the week. This will allow
for moderating temperatures as highs climb back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s for Friday and Saturday. It appears to be dry through the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
Occasional MVFR stratus lingers in the region this evening and may
prevail in southwest MN by morning. However, expect the majority
of the region to see VFR mid level stratus prevailing overnight.
Scattered light rain or snow may spread through parts of southeast
SD and southwest MN overnight as well. Given the isolated
coverage and dry near surface air, have not included in HON/FSD
TAFs. Light southeast and southerly winds will shift west Monday
morning.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
533 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
Main issues for this forecast will be determining highs for
Monday/Tuesday in the warm-up period before a cold front comes
through Tuesday late afternoon/evening. Wind speeds will be
another issue directly behind this front.
Upper level ridging should ensure generally warming temperatures
over the next couple of days. HRRR does show a few sprinkles
tonight near a warm front around the northeast CWA tonight, but
most models keeping us dry, including the ECMWF. Keeping tonight
dry as the forecast soundings indicate little chance of this.
Could get close to near-critical fire conditions to our far west,
but kept this out of the HWO for now. If our Td or wind change for
the worse in our forecast, we may need to throw this in there.
Used a weighted combo of HiRESWarw, NAM12BC, and HiRESWFV3 for
forecast highs tomorrow based on recent model performance
verification of similar scenarios. For lows, went with combo of
NBM/CONSRAW/ADJMAV.
Tuesday should warm up the most ahead of the approaching front.
MEX Guidance already in the mid to upper 70s, so still below this,
and have trended upward from the previous forecast. Used a
weighted combo of NAMNestBC/NAM12BC/ADJMET for Tuesday highs, and
reduced the spread slightly. We could see near 80 in our
south/southwest CWA. Surface height rises of 6-8 mb/3 hour are a
concern for wind gusts of 40+ directly behind the cold front. This
will probably be best addressed with an SPS-type response rather
than in the HWO, since this enhanced wind will last for 1-2 hours
behind the cold front, and will probably be strongest in our
western CWA the way it appears now.
Expect cooler weather behind the front for the rest of the
forecast, but the ambient environment looks quite dry. Next chance
for substantial wind may not be until the next wave on
Monday night of next week, but there are model differences. The
00Z ECMWF tended to bring a trough through closer to the CWA
within northwest flow than what the 12Z GFS was advertising (GFS
was also bringing this through more toward Sunday night), but
still a bit early, and this is just outside of the realm of this
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Satellite
showing quite a few high clouds out there, obs showing cigs around
8,000 - 10,000 ft. Winds are moderately light out of the
southwest and will be turning more westerly and northwesterly by
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Shawkey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
213 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
One more round of fog looks likely tonight as high pressure
prevails. Warmer temperatures are possible tomorrow afternoon,
but Monday will mark the end of the warming trend. A trough will
bring lower temperatures to the region that will last through next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs continue to be a struggle to forecast across the
San Joaquin Valley due to persistent dense fog and a low stratus
deck. Afternoon highs in areas affected by dense fog will struggle
to get over 60 degrees today, while areas where the fog burned off
early may get over 70 degrees. A similar pattern is likely to
unfold tomorrow, where the warming trend will continue in areas
not affected by dense fog, and suppressed temperatures where fog
persists. HRRR and NAMNEST guidance does continue to show another
round of dense fog for the valley tonight, so have issued another
Dense Fog Advisory. This will be valid starting at 8 PM PST
tonight through Noon Monday.
After the fog lifts tomorrow, a trough of low pressure will soon
approach the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a dry cold front
coming through the area. Enough mixing will occur that fog
shouldn`t be an issue in the valley Monday night. This will lead
to widespread cooling across the region as it allows for some
onshore flow. Ironically, some areas in the valley may see warmer
temperatures next Tuesday -- despite the cold front -- than they
have the last few days due to a lack of morning fog. Cool, dry
weather looks to continue on Wednesday before another trough
arrives late Thursday. This trough may trigger a isolated,
upsloping showers along the highest elevations of the Sierra
Nevada around Yosemite National Park. However, QPF would be
extremely limited in those showers. Ensemble guidance seems to
indicate more riding could arrive to the area next weekend,
keeping things dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities 04z Monday through 20z Monday
in the San Joaquin Valley in Dense Fog. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours across the
Central CA Interior.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday November 14 2021... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kings... Madera...
Merced and Tulare Counties. No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern
Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon PST Monday for
CAZ301>303-305>307-309>312-314-315.
&&
$$
public...Bollenbacher
aviation....Bollenbacher
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
550 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
Areas of drizzle, rain showers and snow showers will persist
into this evening. A period of heavier lake effect rain and snow
showers is likely this evening over southwest Michigan and
northwest Indiana where minor snow accumulations will be possible.
It will remain cold on Monday with light rain and snow showers
possible in the afternoon and evening. Warmer and dry weather
follows through mid-week.
&&
.UPDATE...(This Evening)
Issued at 550 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
Upper sw near KAZO will continue esewd this evening. Leading arc of
pva driven snow will overspread into nw OH shortly. Upstream lake
banding organizing/intensifying quickly. Trends in various highres
guidance along with most 18Z signaling warrant a slight ewd shift
in pop/precip gradient. Primary qn remains with inland extent and
longevity of lake modified warm nose. RAP has a good handle on this
per sfc obs and expect mix zone albeit brief inland will collapse up
to near adjacent lake bordering counties quickly this evening.
Remainder of fcst on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
Surface low pressure evacuates the Great Lakes to the east, but not
before it drops a surface trough down Lake Michigan. Lake induced
instability and omega will combine with low level wind convergence
on northwest winds to create a single band of lake precipitation
starting late this afternoon/early tonight. A little bit of jostling
back and forth over the past few model runs on where the band will
set up, but the current thinking is that it will position between
northern LaPorte and southern Berrien down to Kosciusko county.
However, some wavering back and forth of the band will likely limit
residence time of the band in any given location and a little bit of
a lake shadow temperature-wise likely limits snow extent in the lake-
adjacent locations. Even with some greater than 1 inch per hour
rates showing up in the HREF percentages, these don`t have a lot of
residence time in one location either and think that temperatures
will require the heavier rates to accumulate in warmer areas. As
such, have capped accumulations to 1 to 2 inches, though a few spots
could see slightly higher than 2 inches with slightly cooler
temperatures and where the band hangs around for more time. With
road temperatures dropping towards freezing, a few slick spots are
possible Monday morning where roads remain wet/snowy.
Height rises come into the area overnight as the trough leaves and
trajectories back to out of the west and then southwest early Monday
into the morning hours as the better moisture leaves the area.
While lake effect snow has a tendency to linger beyond its
forecast shut off time, think it shuts off by midday Monday at the
latest as the warm front approaches from the west. There is
enough low level moisture and forcing within the warm front to
cause some light snow and rain as the moisture from the front
moves through late Monday afternoon and into the early evening
time frame, but snow accumulations are expected to be minimal.
Highs Monday rise towards the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
Tuesday`s highs rise into the 50s except for northeast Indiana and
southern Lower Michigan as the warm air makes it into the area
under partly cloudy skies in a warm air advection type set up.
It`s dry though in between fronts as mid level ridging is in
place.
We finally get the theta-e plume into the area Wednesday along with
around 1 inch of PWATs ahead of the cold front allowing for a round
of rain showers along an area of surface moisture convergence.
Rainfall totals approach either side of 0.25 inch. Also have highs
above 60 degrees for much of the area.
The cold air behind this cold front is similar in magnitude to the
cold we`re having now, but it is more transient. In here for
Thursday and out of here by Friday or Saturday. As such, a slight
warming trend occurs Friday into the weekend starting around 40
degrees and reaching the upper 40s for highs on Sunday. The weekend
is when our next chance of precipitation occurs, likely falling as
rain, as a cold front moves through.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
General MVFR conditions overnight although some improvement likely
late as upstream drying/subsidence overspreads the terminals. Period
of IFR restriction likely invof KSBN in lake banding yet this should
hold nw of KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for INZ003.
MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ043.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ046.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roller/T
UPDATE...T
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...T
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 436 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2021
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level trof extending
from northern Ontario and Quebec back to the western Great Lakes.
One shortwave is swinging across Lwr MI. To the n, another weaker
shortwave is noted n of Lake Superior. 12z CWPL sounding, near the
shortwave this morning, showed an inversion around 7000ft. NNW flow
LES is ongoing off Lake Superior under 850mb temps around -8C.
Latest RAP analysis has inversion at around 10kft, which matches up
well with the height of the returns off the KMQT radar. With steep
low-level lapse rates blo inversion, LES is not really organized
into bands at all. Intensity has been picking up over the last
couple of hrs as upstream shortwave approaches.
LES trends/snow accumulations/headlines will be the main fcst issue
during the short term. Expect LES to continue to increase this
evening, especially off the e half of Lake Superior for a few
reasons. First, shortwave will impact that part of the lake more so
than the w. Second, inversion will be 3-5kft higher across the east
half of the lake than the w, and third and most importantly,
preconditioning from Lake Nipigon will set the stage for heavier
snowfall. Winds across Lake Superior will veer slightly more
northerly this evening while at the same time winds remain more
backed off of Upper MI due to lake induced troffing. Result will be
increasing low-level convergence across western and northern Upper
MI, but especially focused into n central Upper MI, roughly btwn
Marquette and Munising, which is the same area that will be affected
by Lake Nipigon preconditioning. While typical wind parallel LES
banding probably won`t organize tonight, there will likely be some
organization of heavy shsn into the aforementioned area. Fcst
soundings show the DGZ displaced a little above the best upward
motion, so snow ratios may hold down accumulations a bit from what
could occur, but given deep convection to 10kft or so, expect
periodic hvy snowfall rates of 1-2in/hr to develop this evening.
Given fairly good model agreement on where heavier snowfall will
occur, opted to expand advy w to Marquette County and Delta County.
Across these counties, main accumulating snowfall will occur roughly
from Big Bay to Marquette and down US-41 toward Rapid River and
points e of there. At this point, expect accumulations of 3-6 inches
in those areas. Western Alger County will likely be impacted longest
by heavier snowfall and would not be surprised to see isold amounts
to around 8 inches by mid morning Mon. Considered upgrade to warning
for Alger County, but will differ to evening LES trends to see if
hvy snow will be more persistent or cover a larger area of Alger
County. Southern Schoolcraft/Luce counties may flirt with advy
snowfall amounts tonight. Off to the w, snow accumulations of an
inch or two will be possible tonight under less organized/less
intense/showery snowfall.
On Mon, sfc high pres ridge will shift to western Lake
Superior/western Upper MI in the aftn. Falling
inversions/diminishing low-level winds/convergence will lead to
diminishing LES thru the day. What`s left of the LES will end up
mainly across the Keweenaw into n central Upper MI by late aftn as
weakly convergent flow will be located there.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 407 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2021
Overall not much has changed in the forecast for the upcoming week
as models seem to have a good handle on this active pattern and
their ensemble systems show very little spread through at least
Friday.
Monday night, surface ridging will move overhead leading to winds
going calm over the west half. There should be a several hour period
of mostly clear skies that will allow temps to plummet - especially
since enough snow cover should survive the day Monday over the west
half and in the snow belts. Went with the MAV/MET/MEX guidance and
CMC bias corrected for lows, which should end up in the mid teens in
the coldest spots and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.
On Tuesday, a strong mid-level short wave digging into the Canadian
Rockies will close off and lead to the development of a strong
surface low over the Canadian Prairies. Out ahead of this system,
ridging will build across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.
The low will occlude Tuesday afternoon. As the upper-level jet sinks
southward away from the low and into the Northern Plains, a strong
southerly low-level jet will develop over the Plains and then move
eastward into the U.P. Tuesday night. WAA/Q-vector convergence with
this LLJ should lead to scattered rain showers as the system`s warm
front lifts through the area Tuesday night, although the GFS shows
enough a dry layer around 700 mb to quash precip chances. Regardless
of deeper saturation, the NAM, GFS, and virtually all EPS soundings
all show around 5 kft of surface-based saturation with the SE
upslope flow as the warm front lifts through which would lead to
areas of drizzle over the central U.P. Being in the system`s warm
sector, with 850 mb temps around +2 to +5 C, and that with that
strong LLJ overhead, it will be a mild and breezy night with temps
more or less steady in the upper 30s to low 40s rather than
following a diurnal curve. If enough snow manages to survive
Tuesday`s low to mid 40s highs, then the WAA and moist upslope flow
could lead to areas of fog for much of the night as well.
Wednesday, the system`s cold front will swing across the U.P. and
usher in a sharply colder air mass with temps falling off by late
afternoon. Ensembles continues to indicate great certainty in 850 mb
temps bottoming out right around -10 C by Thursday. Thursday will be
the coldest day of the week with highs ranging from the upper 20s
west to mid 30s east. This cold air mass will also bring another
round of lake effect snow showers - this time primarily to the west
wind snow belts. However, by Thursday night and Friday winds will
likely veer around to NW and bring snow showers into the NW wind
snow belts before they diminish on Friday with the approach of the
next ridge.
Looking even further out, models indicate the coldest air of the
season moving in around next Monday. Although there are some timing
differences among the ensemble members, overall there is a pretty
decent signal for 850 mb temps to drop to around -15 C by next
Tuesday which would of course mean more rounds of lake effect snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 724 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2021
Under a cool nw to n flow across Lake Superior, lake effect snow
showers will continue. At IWD/CMX, this will result in conditions
varying btwn MVFR and VFR throughout this fcst period. Not out of
the question that very brief IFR vis could occur with a few of
the shsn. During Mon morning, winds may back enough with arriving
high pres ridge so that -shsn end and conditions become prevailing
VFR at IWD. At SAW, expect conditions varying btwn VFR and MVFR
with a few brief periods of IFR possible by late evening as a
heavier LES band off Lake Superior possibly sags further west.
Backing winds overnight should then result in -shsn ending and a
return to VFR. &&
.MARINE..
Not much has changed from previous forecasts. North winds 20-25 kts
will continue across much of the lake tonight before subsiding below
20 kts early Monday morning. Winds will then remain light through
Tuesday afternoon.
A strong area of low pressure over the Canadian Prairies Tuesday
will lead to a period of gales Tuesday night north-central and east,
with a good chance of 40 kt gales, albeit for a short period. A Gale
Watch will likely be needed with the next forecast package.
This system`s cold front will sweep across the lake on Wednesday and
usher in much colder air for Thursday. This cold air will make for a
long period of marginal westerly gales Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Previously it looked like high-end gales of 40+ kts
were possible, however, recent trends have decreased wind speeds to
marginal gales. Therefore, have dropped wind speeds back to 35 kts
for this time period with this forecast. This cold air will also
make for some lake effect snow showers which could briefly reduce
visibilities.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MIZ006-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for MIZ005-013.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...RJC