Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/13/21

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
952 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 105 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2021 Key Messages... - Snow flurries remain possible through the late afternoon across the region. No travel impacts are expected as temperatures remain well above freezing this afternoon. - Cold temperatures through Saturday morning. Wind chills this afternoon will reside in the upper 20s to lower 30s through the afternoon. Coldest temperatures Saturday Morning, lows in the 20s. Detailed Discussion... The region remains under the influence of the sizable, lumbering, 500mb trough centered over the Great Lakes. Weak short waves continue to traverse the general flow, with a modest potential vorticity anomaly providing lift within the moist layer between about 900 and 700mb across the region. Similar to yesterday, although not as dramatic, this feature has resulted in snow flurries across the region and light snow across far northern Missouri. Impacts remain minor and this activity will taper off through the late afternoon, toward sunset. No impacts to travel are anticipated. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the mid 20s for most, with minimum wind chill values Saturday morning approaching the low 20s and upper teens. With the exit of the upper low to the east, boundary layer flow will shift more southerly by Saturday afternoon, generally in response to an approaching open short wave off the northern Plains for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. This will bring another chance of passing light rain and snow flurries Sunday morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely to start off the work week, with highs back in the 50s Monday and mid 60s by Tuesday. Temperatures will dip toward the end of the week, as another upper wave drops east-southeast across the region Thursday into Friday. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 952 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2021 The stubborn cloud deck over the area is likely sticking around through sunrise. MVFR ceilings are being observed north and east of the KC Metro and they should remain this way overnight. There is uncertainty about ceiling heights for terminals along the MO/KS border. This area will be near the back edge of the cloud deck so it is possible we see some clearing before sunrise. However, RAP and HRRR soundings want ceilings to drop along the state line to near 2500-3000 feet. Given the mixed signals, went with a tempo group for now. The clouds will move east tomorrow morning. Winds will continue to decrease overnight as high pressure moves in. Tomorrow afternoon into the evening, high pressure moves east, shifting winds to the southwest. Another shortwave trough and weak cold front will move in behind it, bringing cloudy conditions and a slight chance for some flurries again. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Kurtz Aviation...Atkins
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 .UPDATE... Forecast on track and latest guidance only about a degree cooler than current forecast. Light precip on radar over central TN having trouble developing furthern south and southern fringe likely not measuring at the surface. This is close to what HRRR and recent model guidance suggest. No changes needed to PoP and weather grids, though may add mention of sprinkles or light rain in far north. NW winds behind front should pick up around sunrise with some gusts to 20 mph. SNELSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021/ ..Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Dry and stable conditions prevail across the area this afternoon with temps actually running around normal in the 60s and low-mid 70s across parts of middle GA. Broad upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes that was responsible for sending a front accompanied by a line of showers across the area last night, will send another front across the area later tonight -- though this time, no rain is expected. This "dry" cold front will cross the area by Saturday morning with a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air. Temps will be about 10-15F degrees cooler tomorrow with NW winds gusty at times. As the cooler airmass settles in tomorrow night, some of the coldest temps of the late Fall season can be expected with much of the area approaching or dropping below 32F by daybreak Sunday. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for a good portion of the forecast area for tomorrow night/ early Sunday morning. A bit uncertain how far south the sub-freezing line will get. Current min temps show areas between Columbus and Macon in the 33-35F range so this will need to be fine-tuned with later shifts. DJN.83 LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... The coldest temperatures of the season will arrive at the beginning of the long term forecast period prompting the issuance of a freeze watch through Sunday morning for a majority of the CWA. Sunday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in the northeast Georgia mountains and widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s for the rest of the forecast area are expected. Temperatures then warm to the 50s and 60s by Sunday afternoon under clear to mostly sunny skies. A longwave trough swinging through the region Sunday evening does enhance moisture slightly through the midlevels, however, it is not enough to squeeze out any precipitation. Therefore, only some slight enhancement of cloud cover is expected across parts of north Georgia. Any increased cloud coverage will moderate temperatures overnight Sunday and into Monday morning, primarily in extreme northeast Georgia. Daytime max temperatures remain on the cooler side (6 to 13 degrees below normal) as northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough continues to usher cool air into the area. Morning lows will again dip down into the upper 20s in northeast Georgia and widespread 30s Tuesday across the forecast area. As the upper level trough lifts out of the region, high pressure builds in at the beginning of next week. Sunny skies return, surface winds turn southerly, and a gradual warming trend begins by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s are expected through Thursday. The next shot at precipitation will come Thursday/early Friday morning. While model solutions hint that this front will move through during this time frame, there are large discrepancies in precipitation coverage amongst models at this time. There is a lot of uncertainty in the precipitation forecast at the end of the period, so future runs will need to be monitored. KAL AVIATION... 00Z Update... Dry and VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Only some mid level clouds will be possible early this morning 09-12Z as a dry cold front moves though then SKC, switching the winds from light WSW to NW 8-12kts with gusts up to 20kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 44 58 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 44 53 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 36 47 27 54 / 5 0 0 0 Cartersville 41 52 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 59 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 43 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 45 62 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 42 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 42 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 49 67 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb... Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee... Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta... Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly... Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer... Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock... Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper... Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin... Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan... Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee... Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk... Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding... Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns... Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren... Washington...Webster...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes... Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...SNELSON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
646 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 LATEST UPDATE... Update/Aviation && .UPDATE... Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 We continue to see mixed rain and snow showers. When the precipitation is a little heavier it comes down as not, otherwise it is a mix of rain and snow. We just got 0.2" at our office with this last snow shower. Based on the the latest Hi Res models, like the 22z HRRR and considering the upper through will be coming through this area just after midnight. It would seem to me the snow showers will continue until the passage of that trough. Once through the snow showers/rain showers should diminish. The heaviest snow showers should be in the 10 pm to 2 am time frame, ahead of the just in front of the upper trough. I could see 2 to 3 inches on grassy areas from those snow showers. However ground temperatures remain in the mid 40s so any snow will melt quickly after if falls. As there is no colder air upstream and current temperatures are near the dew point so I do not see much potential for cooling other than the snow showers cooling it off. The bottom line is our current forecast looks good. That is 1-3 inches near US-131 and mostly a trace elsewhere. Actually slightly warm air comes in at the cloud level behind the trough so that may be enough to cause the showers toward sunrise to be more rain than snow. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 ...Light snow tonight, more Sunday... A deep upper low is currently located over northern Wisconsin. As the low begins to fill and eject northeastward, the trough axis will pivot through the cwa tonight. The lift associated with this coupled with the instability over the lake created by lake delta t/s near 18c will result in an uptick in lake effect showers. Given lake water temperatures in the mid 50s F, the precipitation will likely fall as rain along the lake shore. However inland, we`ll see mixed rain and snow. MUCAPE values in the 200-400 j/kg range suggest thunder is a possibility, similar to last night. As a few of the stronger showers move inland, brief periods of heavier snow may be possible. Accumulations from an inch to perhaps locally 3 inches seems possible inland from the lake...lesser amounts as you move closer to the US-127 corridor. Precipitation will diminish Saturday and Saturday night before increasing again Sunday. A clipper type system is progd to move southeast from Minnesota across SW Lower. We`ll be starting out near freezing when the precipitation begins and most of this, except along the lake shore, will be snow. Another 1-3 inches looks likely and this time we should see snow move across the eastern cwa too. As the clipper moves east and winds become northwesterly behind it, models are showing some lake bands developing Sunday evening along the lake shore. So, more light snow is possible through Monday morning west of US-131. Temperatures will moderate into the lower 50s by mid week before falling again later in the week behind another cold front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 I am thinking the TAF sites near I-69 will mostly be VFR into Saturday. There could be a brief rain / snow shower and thus MVFR conditions but for the most part expect VFR cigs into Saturday evening. TAF sites closer the the lake shore will see active snow showers until around 08z or so. GRR will see the most intense snow showers with frequent IFR conditions. That is due to GRR being just far enough inland to maximize the lake enhancement of the snow showers. The other sites like MKG, AZO and BTL will have significantly less impacts from these showers this evening. All of these sites will be mostly MVFR with cigs through Saturday once the snow showers end early Saturday morning. Some light showers of rain or snow are possible at these sites Saturday but they should not really impact the visibilities or ceilings. Winds will turn to the west northwest at all taf sites after 06z, MKG has already done that. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 Observations along the coast and over the lake point toward widespread 15 to 30 knot winds. Wind will gradually weaken a bit as the deep low over Lake Superior moves northeast and away from the region. Waves will take a few days to follow, but by late in the weekend, the next system will be approaching and wind will increase again. Thus the Small Craft Advisory will remain in place through 00z Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...WDM MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
421 PM PST Fri Nov 12 2021 Updated air quality section .SYNOPSIS... The theme of dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley continues through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. Afternoon highs continue to rise through Monday due to the ridging, but will retreat several degrees by the middle of next week due to a dry trough passing through the Pacific Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Dense fog appeared again this morning across the San Joaquin Valley as the ridge of high pressure that has been overhead hasn`t budged much. In fact, we are expecting a similar scenario to unfold again tonight. HRRR guidance is showing dense fog appearing after midnight tonight and lasting through late morning tomorrow. A Dense Fog Advisory will go into affect at midnight tonight through 11 AM Saturday. Fog may also occur Sunday morning, but confidence isn`t as high on that as tonight`s predicted fog. Afternoon highs continue to bump up a degree or two each day through Monday due to the building ridge. By Sunday and Monday, highs will likely reach the mid 70s for most of the valley, which is about 7-8 degrees above normal for mid November. A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass well north of the forecast area into the Pacific Northwest Monday night. This will usher in onshore flow to the region, lowering temperatures several degrees on Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s are being advertised by the NBM Tuesday. A zonal flow pattern looks to emerge thereafter, so little change in temperatures are expected through the end of next week. && .AVIATION... LIFR conditions are possible in the San Joaquin Valley Friday night into Saturday morning due to dense fog. LIFR cigs possible after 08z Saturday across the San Joaquin Valley through 19z Saturday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Saturday November 13 2021... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties. No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. Further information is available at && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM PST Saturday for CAZ302-303-306-307-310>312-314-315. && $$ public...Bollenbacher aviation....Bollenbacher
forecast discrepancy exist with the timing of this system, with
GFS indicating slower solution as a GOMEX surface low crosses the
area Friday night with a stratiform rainfall Fri and then shower/isolated t`storm potential into Friday afternoon/night. The ECMWF favored more progressive, drier system clearing the area Friday evening. At this time, consensus guidance trended toward cloudy and cooler Friday with scattered shower potential. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] VFR at this time with just SCT-BKN high clouds over the region. Light to calm winds and low level moisture exist for stratus and fog development tonight, with latest HRRR showing patchy dense fog developing around the 04Z-06Z time frame. MOS guidance shows JAX, VQQ, and GNV headed toward VLIFR from 06Z-09Z, with SSI, CRG, and SGJ possibly reaching LIFR for same time period. Began to show improvement in the ceilings and visibilities between 13Z-15Z, but could linger slightly longer for GNV and SGJ as the low stratus clouds edge southeastward ahead of a sfc cold front. The front will pass through northeast FL in the morning and early aftn hours with a few showers possible in the vicinity of GNV around the 13-16Z time frame. Skies should clear in the afternoon hours after the cold frontal passage with VFR and northwest winds increasing to near 10 kt with a few higher gusts of 15-20 kt possible. .MARINE... An extended period of no headlines expected at this time other than potentially brief, marginal Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions Saturday Night and Monday trailing a couple of weak frontal passages. High pressure across the eastern Gulf Coast region will weaken this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move across the waters through Saturday preceded by showers. Northwest winds will trail the frontal passage late Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds across the central Gulf Coast region. Another dry cold front will move south across the area early Monday, then high pressure will build north of the local waters Tuesday and Wednesday returning to onshore flow midweek. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk through Saturday for NE FL. Moderate risk today for SE GA beaches, potentially low risk Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 69 37 61 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 SSI 56 71 45 65 45 / 0 20 0 0 0 JAX 54 74 44 65 45 / 0 20 0 0 0 SGJ 59 75 47 67 48 / 10 20 0 0 0 GNV 57 74 43 67 43 / 0 30 0 0 0 OCF 59 75 45 68 44 / 0 30 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
603 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Scattered rain and snow showers will taper off this evening as the sfc low pressure slides off to the northeast. Little to no accumulation is expected from the lingering snow showers. Northwest winds will begin to wind down this evening as the system moves away, but wind gusts up to 40 mph are still expected this afternoon across western Minnesota. This is some concern for the potential of a few slick spots to develop on wet pavement as temperatures drop below freezing overnight. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the mid 20s to around 30 for the Twin Cities metro. Lows were bumped up a few degrees after neighboring WFOs expressed a concern that overcast skies could keep temps warmer. On Saturday, a benign start is on tap with mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures in place. An amplifying trough will drop south from Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon/evening. This system will bring the next chance for accumulating snow across most of the MPX forecast area. Snow will begin spreading eastward into Minnesota Saturday afternoon, then eastward into Wisconsin by Saturday night. The Twin Cities should expect light snow to start after sunset with heavier rates moving in Saturday night. The shortwave remains just off the coast of British Columbia and will move onshore over the next 12 hours. That being said, there remains a lot of spread among guidance and time for subtle shifts in the storm track to occur. Most guidance calls for between 1/4 to 1/3 inch of QPF along and north if I-94 corridor. With snow ratios around 10:1, a stripe of a few inches is probable along that corridor. The main question is where the system will track and where the deformation band north of the system will set up. Both the 12Z EPS and GEFS continue to highlight the axis of heaviest snow accumulation along or just north of I-94, per highest probs of greater than 1/4 inch of QPF. Hourly PoPs were requested via collaboration to address the progressive nature of this system, but the start/end time of precipitation is still fluid. I`d expect the guidance spread to decrease with the 00Z runs as partial sampling of the wave will be ingested. Regardless, an early season clipper system should bring the first accumulating snow to the Twin Cities Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be near freezing through the duration of the snowfall. Slightly cooler temperatures arrive behind the system on Sunday morning, but will be short lived. A few lingering snow showers will exit western Wisconsin by Sunday mid-morning and a surface high pressure will begin to build into Minnesota. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 234 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 The extended range forecast looks dry, but cool. The loan exception is Monday into Tuesday when a clipper system will move through. Some light snow/rain is possible on Monday ahead of this system, and then Tuesday could be quite mild as the warm sector moves overhead. This will be followed by cooler weather for the rest of the week with highs back in the upper 30s to near 40. Sunday Night through Monday Night - Surface high pressure will quickly advance eastward as the next weather system approaches from the west. This is a subtle shortwave PV anomaly, but it will have a favorable low level thermal profile to work with. Theta_e advection will overspread the region Monday into Monday night, and this will lead to clouds and perhaps some light rain or snow. There are timing differences with this system, and for that reason the blended guidance was dry, but did include a small chance for precipitation on Monday as this warm front lifts through the region. Tuesday - On Tuesday a much stronger shortwave trough will move along the International Border, and a surface cyclone will develop across southern Canada and move eastward. That will leave Minnesota and Wisconsin in the warm sector, with an impressive thermal ridge sliding across the region for Tuesday. Tuesday highs are a challenge, because the warm air will be aloft, but the question is whether or not we can break through the inversion and tap into it, especially considering some locations will see accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Did not deviate from the blended guidance, but the potential is there for 60s, especially across southwest Minnesota. Wednesday through Friday - A cold front will move through on Wednesday with surface high pressure following for Thursday. This cold front will bring breezy northwest winds again, so did increase them a bit toward the higher end of the guidance. Forecast soundings show gust near 40 mph possible, so trended in this direction but did not go quite that high just yet with the official forecast. A few wrap around snow showers are possible as well, but opted to keep them out of the forecast for now given the uncertainty in timing. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 For the rest of tonight and much of Saturday, we`ll keep stratus in the 2k to 4k foot range (so in and out of MVFR cigs) as we await the shortwave just coming onshore in western BC right now. Main concern with this wave are timing, with the HRRR running about 2 or 3 hours faster than the NAMnest with spreading precip to the east at the end of this period. For north of the MN River Valley, this will be all snow, but all of the hi-res models show the south end of the WAA precip band being some form of a rain/wintry mix, so there could be some p-type issues at RWF/MKT. For axis of heaviest snow, we`re seeing it be anywhere as far south as right down I-94, to being more up along a Fargo to Hayward line. At either rate, the brunt of the incoming clipper will be just entering our area as we hit the end of the 24 hour TAF period. KMSP...Did somewhat of a compromise with snow timing at MSP, though the onset spread is relatively small, with models showing SN starting as early as 21z to as late as 00z. 02z to 06z Sunday looks to be our window for heaviest snow. Here, vis down to 3/4sm is possible, especially if the more southerly track like the RAP has verifies. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/IFR early, bcmg VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. MON...MVFR/IFR cigs in aftn. Chc -SN. Wind SE 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE at 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BPH LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
845 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 .UPDATE... We maintain shower chances tonight along the coast, with the highest PoPs of 25-30 pct from Cape San Blas to Saint George Island. Patchy fog remains possible in the FL Big Bend. All of this will move east of the area Saturday morning with the cold front. The dry air mass should mix very efficiently on Saturday, such that our dew points were tweaked downward in line with the NBM 10th percentile of guidance. There were no other changes to the forecast with this update from the near term discussion below. && .MARINE... Northwest winds will increase from west to east across the waters late tonight in association with a cold frontal passage. Winds briefly nearing 20 knots at times are possible for the waters west of Apalachicola into early Saturday afternoon. Significant wave heights will increase as well, nearing 5 feet for the offshore waters west of Apalachicola. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for the waters west of Apalachicola tonight and for all of the waters on Saturday. Winds will remain elevated through much of the weekend, decreasing early next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION [625 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]... Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail tonight over most of the area with a drier airmass behind the recent cold frontal passage. However, a secondary cold front will approach late tonight with a slight chance of showers along the coast and perhaps some thunderstorms offshore. Overnight lows are expected to range generally from the mid 40s across the northern portions of the area to the mid to upper 50s across the southeast big bend. For Saturday, the secondary cold will move through the area, but limited moisture ahead of it is expected to result in shower chances confined to the southeast big bend and offshore. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 60s across the northwest portions of the area to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front across the southeast big bend. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]... Post-frontal, we can expect a transition to cool, dry, and clear sky conditions. The 18Z HRRR has dewpoints falling into the low 30s and upper 20s in the wake of two cold fronts. With winds expected to weaken Saturday night into Sunday morning, frost could be possible for areas in SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and along the Florida State border. Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be near freezing in portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia, otherwise, lows will generally be warmer towards the FL Big Bend where lows are forecast to be in the low 40s. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... High pressure dominates throughout the long term, the GEFS ensembles show pretty good agreement with the 500mb heights through next week being relatively zonal. This means we`ll remain cool through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend that begins on Wednesday through Friday. A series of shortwaves coming off the Rocky Mountains will begin to cross through the Central Plains on Friday, potentially leading to our next frontal system next weekend. Daytime highs will generally be in the mid and upper 60s on Monday followed by a warming into the mid 70s by Thursday, with a drop back into the upper 60s on Friday. Overnight lows remain locked in the 40s, with some areas in SE AL and SW GA making it into the upper 30s, a warming of overnight lows into the low to mid 50s is expected by Thursday morning. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] MVFR/IFR cigs will move into the FL coastal areas overnight, but are expected to remain south of ECP/TLH, with only BKN-SCT 4k ft cigs note at these terminals. So, VFR conditions expected through the period. West-Southwest winds veer to the northwest with the passage of a cold front, increasing to around 10 kts on Saturday. .FIRE WEATHER... There are minimal fire weather concerns expected for the next several days outside of occasional high or low dispersions. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts will generally be around half an inch or less, primarily across the SE Florida Big Bend associated with tomorrows` cold front. Isolated higher amounts are possible within heavy showers. Thunderstorm potential is low. There are no flooding concerns at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 70 39 64 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 55 67 41 64 48 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dothan 48 62 34 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 49 65 35 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 52 70 37 63 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 Cross City 59 74 42 65 45 / 10 30 0 0 0 Apalachicola 58 69 42 63 49 / 30 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...LF NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM...Oliver AVIATION...LF MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Oliver