Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/13/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
952 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
.Discussion...
Issued at 105 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2021
Key Messages...
- Snow flurries remain possible through the late afternoon across
the region. No travel impacts are expected as temperatures remain
well above freezing this afternoon.
- Cold temperatures through Saturday morning. Wind chills this
afternoon will reside in the upper 20s to lower 30s through the
afternoon. Coldest temperatures Saturday Morning, lows in the 20s.
Detailed Discussion...
The region remains under the influence of the sizable, lumbering,
500mb trough centered over the Great Lakes. Weak short waves
continue to traverse the general flow, with a modest potential
vorticity anomaly providing lift within the moist layer between
about 900 and 700mb across the region. Similar to yesterday,
although not as dramatic, this feature has resulted in snow flurries
across the region and light snow across far northern Missouri.
Impacts remain minor and this activity will taper off through the
late afternoon, toward sunset. No impacts to travel are anticipated.
Overnight, temperatures will dip into the mid 20s for most, with
minimum wind chill values Saturday morning approaching the low 20s
and upper teens. With the exit of the upper low to the east,
boundary layer flow will shift more southerly by Saturday afternoon,
generally in response to an approaching open short wave off the
northern Plains for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. This will bring
another chance of passing light rain and snow flurries Sunday
morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely to start off the work
week, with highs back in the 50s Monday and mid 60s by Tuesday.
Temperatures will dip toward the end of the week, as another upper
wave drops east-southeast across the region Thursday into Friday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 952 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2021
The stubborn cloud deck over the area is likely sticking around
through sunrise. MVFR ceilings are being observed north and east
of the KC Metro and they should remain this way overnight. There
is uncertainty about ceiling heights for terminals along the
MO/KS border. This area will be near the back edge of the cloud
deck so it is possible we see some clearing before sunrise.
However, RAP and HRRR soundings want ceilings to drop along the
state line to near 2500-3000 feet. Given the mixed signals, went
with a tempo group for now. The clouds will move east tomorrow
morning. Winds will continue to decrease overnight as high
pressure moves in. Tomorrow afternoon into the evening, high
pressure moves east, shifting winds to the southwest. Another
shortwave trough and weak cold front will move in behind it,
bringing cloudy conditions and a slight chance for some flurries
again.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Atkins
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
.UPDATE...
Forecast on track and latest guidance only about a degree cooler
than current forecast. Light precip on radar over central TN
having trouble developing furthern south and southern fringe
likely not measuring at the surface. This is close to what HRRR
and recent model guidance suggest. No changes needed to PoP and
weather grids, though may add mention of sprinkles or light rain
in far north. NW winds behind front should pick up around sunrise
with some gusts to 20 mph.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021/
..Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Dry and stable conditions prevail across the area this afternoon
with temps actually running around normal in the 60s and low-mid 70s
across parts of middle GA. Broad upper level low pressure system
over the Great Lakes that was responsible for sending a front
accompanied by a line of showers across the area last night, will
send another front across the area later tonight -- though this
time, no rain is expected.
This "dry" cold front will cross the area by Saturday morning with a
reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air. Temps will be about 10-15F
degrees cooler tomorrow with NW winds gusty at times. As the cooler
airmass settles in tomorrow night, some of the coldest temps of the
late Fall season can be expected with much of the area approaching
or dropping below 32F by daybreak Sunday. A Freeze Watch remains in
effect for a good portion of the forecast area for tomorrow night/
early Sunday morning. A bit uncertain how far south the sub-freezing
line will get. Current min temps show areas between Columbus and
Macon in the 33-35F range so this will need to be fine-tuned with
later shifts.
DJN.83
LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
The coldest temperatures of the season will arrive at the beginning
of the long term forecast period prompting the issuance of a freeze
watch through Sunday morning for a majority of the CWA. Sunday
morning low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in the northeast
Georgia mountains and widespread low temperatures in the low to
mid 30s for the rest of the forecast area are expected.
Temperatures then warm to the 50s and 60s by Sunday afternoon
under clear to mostly sunny skies. A longwave trough swinging
through the region Sunday evening does enhance moisture slightly
through the midlevels, however, it is not enough to squeeze out
any precipitation. Therefore, only some slight enhancement of
cloud cover is expected across parts of north Georgia. Any
increased cloud coverage will moderate temperatures overnight
Sunday and into Monday morning, primarily in extreme northeast
Georgia. Daytime max temperatures remain on the cooler side (6 to
13 degrees below normal) as northwesterly flow on the backside of
the trough continues to usher cool air into the area. Morning lows
will again dip down into the upper 20s in northeast Georgia and
widespread 30s Tuesday across the forecast area. As the upper
level trough lifts out of the region, high pressure builds in at
the beginning of next week. Sunny skies return, surface winds turn
southerly, and a gradual warming trend begins by Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low
70s are expected through Thursday. The next shot at precipitation
will come Thursday/early Friday morning. While model solutions
hint that this front will move through during this time frame,
there are large discrepancies in precipitation coverage amongst
models at this time. There is a lot of uncertainty in the
precipitation forecast at the end of the period, so future runs
will need to be monitored.
KAL
AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Dry and VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Only some
mid level clouds will be possible early this morning 09-12Z as a
dry cold front moves though then SKC, switching the winds from
light WSW to NW 8-12kts with gusts up to 20kts.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 44 58 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 44 53 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 36 47 27 54 / 5 0 0 0
Cartersville 41 52 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 45 59 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 43 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 45 62 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 42 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 42 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 49 67 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...
Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...
Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
646 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
We continue to see mixed rain and snow showers. When the
precipitation is a little heavier it comes down as not, otherwise
it is a mix of rain and snow. We just got 0.2" at our office with
this last snow shower. Based on the the latest Hi Res models,
like the 22z HRRR and considering the upper through will be coming
through this area just after midnight. It would seem to me the
snow showers will continue until the passage of that trough. Once
through the snow showers/rain showers should diminish. The
heaviest snow showers should be in the 10 pm to 2 am time frame,
ahead of the just in front of the upper trough. I could see 2 to 3
inches on grassy areas from those snow showers. However ground
temperatures remain in the mid 40s so any snow will melt quickly
after if falls. As there is no colder air upstream and current
temperatures are near the dew point so I do not see much potential
for cooling other than the snow showers cooling it off. The bottom
line is our current forecast looks good.
That is 1-3 inches near US-131 and mostly a trace elsewhere.
Actually slightly warm air comes in at the cloud level behind the
trough so that may be enough to cause the showers toward sunrise
to be more rain than snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
...Light snow tonight, more Sunday...
A deep upper low is currently located over northern Wisconsin. As
the low begins to fill and eject northeastward, the trough axis will
pivot through the cwa tonight. The lift associated with this coupled
with the instability over the lake created by lake delta t/s near
18c will result in an uptick in lake effect showers. Given lake
water temperatures in the mid 50s F, the precipitation will likely
fall as rain along the lake shore. However inland, we`ll see mixed
rain and snow. MUCAPE values in the 200-400 j/kg range suggest
thunder is a possibility, similar to last night. As a few of the
stronger showers move inland, brief periods of heavier snow may be
possible. Accumulations from an inch to perhaps locally 3 inches
seems possible inland from the lake...lesser amounts as you move
closer to the US-127 corridor.
Precipitation will diminish Saturday and Saturday night before
increasing again Sunday. A clipper type system is progd to move
southeast from Minnesota across SW Lower. We`ll be starting out near
freezing when the precipitation begins and most of this, except
along the lake shore, will be snow. Another 1-3 inches looks likely
and this time we should see snow move across the eastern cwa too. As
the clipper moves east and winds become northwesterly behind it,
models are showing some lake bands developing Sunday evening along
the lake shore. So, more light snow is possible through Monday
morning west of US-131.
Temperatures will moderate into the lower 50s by mid week before
falling again later in the week behind another cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
I am thinking the TAF sites near I-69 will mostly be VFR into
Saturday. There could be a brief rain / snow shower and thus MVFR
conditions but for the most part expect VFR cigs into Saturday
evening.
TAF sites closer the the lake shore will see active snow showers
until around 08z or so. GRR will see the most intense snow showers
with frequent IFR conditions. That is due to GRR being just far
enough inland to maximize the lake enhancement of the snow
showers. The other sites like MKG, AZO and BTL will have
significantly less impacts from these showers this evening. All
of these sites will be mostly MVFR with cigs through Saturday once
the snow showers end early Saturday morning. Some light showers
of rain or snow are possible at these sites Saturday but they
should not really impact the visibilities or ceilings.
Winds will turn to the west northwest at all taf sites after 06z,
MKG has already done that.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
Observations along the coast and over the lake point toward
widespread 15 to 30 knot winds. Wind will gradually weaken a bit as
the deep low over Lake Superior moves northeast and away from the
region. Waves will take a few days to follow, but by late in the
weekend, the next system will be approaching and wind will increase
again. Thus the Small Craft Advisory will remain in place through
00z Monday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
421 PM PST Fri Nov 12 2021
Updated air quality section
.SYNOPSIS...
The theme of dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley continues
through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains in place.
Afternoon highs continue to rise through Monday due to the
ridging, but will retreat several degrees by the middle of next
week due to a dry trough passing through the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog appeared again this morning across the San Joaquin
Valley as the ridge of high pressure that has been overhead hasn`t
budged much. In fact, we are expecting a similar scenario to
unfold again tonight. HRRR guidance is showing dense fog
appearing after midnight tonight and lasting through late morning
tomorrow. A Dense Fog Advisory will go into affect at midnight
tonight through 11 AM Saturday. Fog may also occur Sunday morning,
but confidence isn`t as high on that as tonight`s predicted fog.
Afternoon highs continue to bump up a degree or two each day
through Monday due to the building ridge. By Sunday and Monday,
highs will likely reach the mid 70s for most of the valley, which
is about 7-8 degrees above normal for mid November.
A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass well north of the
forecast area into the Pacific Northwest Monday night. This will
usher in onshore flow to the region, lowering temperatures several
degrees on Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s are
being advertised by the NBM Tuesday. A zonal flow pattern looks to
emerge thereafter, so little change in temperatures are expected
through the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR conditions are possible in the San Joaquin Valley Friday
night into Saturday morning due to dense fog. LIFR cigs possible
after 08z Saturday across the San Joaquin Valley through 19z
Saturday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail elsewhere for the
next 24 hours across the Central California Interior.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday November 13 2021... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
No Burning Unless Registered in Kings... Madera... Merced and
Tulare Counties. No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM PST Saturday
for CAZ302-303-306-307-310>312-314-315.
&&
$$
public...Bollenbacher
aviation....Bollenbacher
weather.gov/hanford
forecast discrepancy exist with the timing of this system, with
GFS indicating slower solution as a GOMEX surface low crosses the
area Friday night with a stratiform rainfall Fri and then
shower/isolated t`storm potential into Friday afternoon/night.
The ECMWF favored more progressive, drier system clearing the
area Friday evening. At this time, consensus guidance trended
toward cloudy and cooler Friday with scattered shower potential.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]
VFR at this time with just SCT-BKN high clouds over the region.
Light to calm winds and low level moisture exist for stratus and
fog development tonight, with latest HRRR showing patchy dense
fog developing around the 04Z-06Z time frame. MOS guidance shows
JAX, VQQ, and GNV headed toward VLIFR from 06Z-09Z, with SSI, CRG,
and SGJ possibly reaching LIFR for same time period. Began to
show improvement in the ceilings and visibilities between 13Z-15Z,
but could linger slightly longer for GNV and SGJ as the low
stratus clouds edge southeastward ahead of a sfc cold front. The
front will pass through northeast FL in the morning and early aftn
hours with a few showers possible in the vicinity of GNV around
the 13-16Z time frame. Skies should clear in the afternoon hours
after the cold frontal passage with VFR and northwest winds
increasing to near 10 kt with a few higher gusts of 15-20 kt
possible.
.MARINE...
An extended period of no headlines expected at this time other
than potentially brief, marginal Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions Saturday Night and Monday trailing a couple of weak
frontal passages. High pressure across the eastern Gulf Coast
region will weaken this evening as a cold front approaches from
the west. This front will move across the waters through Saturday
preceded by showers. Northwest winds will trail the frontal
passage late Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds across the
central Gulf Coast region. Another dry cold front will move south
across the area early Monday, then high pressure will build north
of the local waters Tuesday and Wednesday returning to onshore
flow midweek.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk through Saturday for NE
FL. Moderate risk today for SE GA beaches, potentially low risk
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 49 69 37 61 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
SSI 56 71 45 65 45 / 0 20 0 0 0
JAX 54 74 44 65 45 / 0 20 0 0 0
SGJ 59 75 47 67 48 / 10 20 0 0 0
GNV 57 74 43 67 43 / 0 30 0 0 0
OCF 59 75 45 68 44 / 0 30 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
603 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
Scattered rain and snow showers will taper off this evening as the
sfc low pressure slides off to the northeast. Little to no
accumulation is expected from the lingering snow showers. Northwest
winds will begin to wind down this evening as the system moves away,
but wind gusts up to 40 mph are still expected this afternoon across
western Minnesota. This is some concern for the potential of a few
slick spots to develop on wet pavement as temperatures drop below
freezing overnight. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the
mid 20s to around 30 for the Twin Cities metro. Lows were bumped up
a few degrees after neighboring WFOs expressed a concern that
overcast skies could keep temps warmer.
On Saturday, a benign start is on tap with mostly cloudy skies and
cool temperatures in place. An amplifying trough will drop south
from Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest Saturday
afternoon/evening. This system will bring the next chance for
accumulating snow across most of the MPX forecast area. Snow will
begin spreading eastward into Minnesota Saturday afternoon, then
eastward into Wisconsin by Saturday night. The Twin Cities should
expect light snow to start after sunset with heavier rates moving in
Saturday night. The shortwave remains just off the coast of British
Columbia and will move onshore over the next 12 hours. That being
said, there remains a lot of spread among guidance and time for
subtle shifts in the storm track to occur. Most guidance calls for
between 1/4 to 1/3 inch of QPF along and north if I-94 corridor.
With snow ratios around 10:1, a stripe of a few inches is probable
along that corridor. The main question is where the system will
track and where the deformation band north of the system will set up.
Both the 12Z EPS and GEFS continue to highlight the axis of heaviest
snow accumulation along or just north of I-94, per highest probs of
greater than 1/4 inch of QPF. Hourly PoPs were requested via
collaboration to address the progressive nature of this system, but
the start/end time of precipitation is still fluid. I`d expect the
guidance spread to decrease with the 00Z runs as partial sampling of
the wave will be ingested.
Regardless, an early season clipper system should bring the first
accumulating snow to the Twin Cities Saturday evening into Sunday
morning. Temperatures will be near freezing through the duration of
the snowfall. Slightly cooler temperatures arrive behind the system
on Sunday morning, but will be short lived. A few lingering snow
showers will exit western Wisconsin by Sunday mid-morning and a
surface high pressure will begin to build into Minnesota.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
The extended range forecast looks dry, but cool. The loan exception
is Monday into Tuesday when a clipper system will move through. Some
light snow/rain is possible on Monday ahead of this system, and then
Tuesday could be quite mild as the warm sector moves overhead. This
will be followed by cooler weather for the rest of the week with
highs back in the upper 30s to near 40.
Sunday Night through Monday Night - Surface high pressure will
quickly advance eastward as the next weather system approaches from
the west. This is a subtle shortwave PV anomaly, but it will have a
favorable low level thermal profile to work with. Theta_e advection
will overspread the region Monday into Monday night, and this will
lead to clouds and perhaps some light rain or snow. There are timing
differences with this system, and for that reason the blended
guidance was dry, but did include a small chance for precipitation
on Monday as this warm front lifts through the region.
Tuesday - On Tuesday a much stronger shortwave trough will move
along the International Border, and a surface cyclone will develop
across southern Canada and move eastward. That will leave Minnesota
and Wisconsin in the warm sector, with an impressive thermal ridge
sliding across the region for Tuesday. Tuesday highs are a
challenge, because the warm air will be aloft, but the question is
whether or not we can break through the inversion and tap into it,
especially considering some locations will see accumulating snow
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Did not deviate from the blended
guidance, but the potential is there for 60s, especially across
southwest Minnesota.
Wednesday through Friday - A cold front will move through on
Wednesday with surface high pressure following for Thursday. This
cold front will bring breezy northwest winds again, so did increase
them a bit toward the higher end of the guidance. Forecast soundings
show gust near 40 mph possible, so trended in this direction but did
not go quite that high just yet with the official forecast. A few
wrap around snow showers are possible as well, but opted to keep
them out of the forecast for now given the uncertainty in timing.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
For the rest of tonight and much of Saturday, we`ll keep stratus in
the 2k to 4k foot range (so in and out of MVFR cigs) as we await the
shortwave just coming onshore in western BC right now. Main concern
with this wave are timing, with the HRRR running about 2 or 3 hours
faster than the NAMnest with spreading precip to the east at the end
of this period. For north of the MN River Valley, this will be all
snow, but all of the hi-res models show the south end of the WAA
precip band being some form of a rain/wintry mix, so there could be
some p-type issues at RWF/MKT. For axis of heaviest snow, we`re
seeing it be anywhere as far south as right down I-94, to being more
up along a Fargo to Hayward line. At either rate, the brunt of the
incoming clipper will be just entering our area as we hit the end of
the 24 hour TAF period.
KMSP...Did somewhat of a compromise with snow timing at MSP, though
the onset spread is relatively small, with models showing SN
starting as early as 21z to as late as 00z. 02z to 06z Sunday looks
to be our window for heaviest snow. Here, vis down to 3/4sm is
possible, especially if the more southerly track like the RAP has
verifies.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR early, bcmg VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
MON...MVFR/IFR cigs in aftn. Chc -SN. Wind SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE at 10G20kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
845 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021
.UPDATE...
We maintain shower chances tonight along the coast, with the
highest PoPs of 25-30 pct from Cape San Blas to Saint George
Island. Patchy fog remains possible in the FL Big Bend. All
of this will move east of the area Saturday morning with the
cold front. The dry air mass should mix very efficiently on
Saturday, such that our dew points were tweaked downward in
line with the NBM 10th percentile of guidance. There were no
other changes to the forecast with this update from the near
term discussion below.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds will increase from west to east across the waters
late tonight in association with a cold frontal passage. Winds
briefly nearing 20 knots at times are possible for the waters
west of Apalachicola into early Saturday afternoon. Significant
wave heights will increase as well, nearing 5 feet for the
offshore waters west of Apalachicola. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution for the waters west of Apalachicola tonight and for all
of the waters on Saturday. Winds will remain elevated through much
of the weekend, decreasing early next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [625 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail tonight
over most of the area with a drier airmass behind the recent cold
frontal passage. However, a secondary cold front will approach late
tonight with a slight chance of showers along the coast and perhaps
some thunderstorms offshore. Overnight lows are expected to range
generally from the mid 40s across the northern portions of the area
to the mid to upper 50s across the southeast big bend.
For Saturday, the secondary cold will move through the area, but
limited moisture ahead of it is expected to result in shower chances
confined to the southeast big bend and offshore. High temperatures
are expected to range from the low to mid 60s across the northwest
portions of the area to the low to mid 70s ahead of the front across
the southeast big bend.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...
Post-frontal, we can expect a transition to cool, dry, and clear sky
conditions. The 18Z HRRR has dewpoints falling into the low 30s and
upper 20s in the wake of two cold fronts. With winds expected to
weaken Saturday night into Sunday morning, frost could be possible
for areas in SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and along the Florida State
border. Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows
will be near freezing in portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia,
otherwise, lows will generally be warmer towards the FL Big Bend
where lows are forecast to be in the low 40s.
.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
High pressure dominates throughout the long term, the GEFS ensembles
show pretty good agreement with the 500mb heights through next week
being relatively zonal. This means we`ll remain cool through
Tuesday, followed by a warming trend that begins on Wednesday
through Friday. A series of shortwaves coming off the Rocky
Mountains will begin to cross through the Central Plains on Friday,
potentially leading to our next frontal system next weekend. Daytime
highs will generally be in the mid and upper 60s on Monday followed
by a warming into the mid 70s by Thursday, with a drop back into the
upper 60s on Friday. Overnight lows remain locked in the 40s, with
some areas in SE AL and SW GA making it into the upper 30s, a
warming of overnight lows into the low to mid 50s is expected by
Thursday morning.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]
MVFR/IFR cigs will move into the FL coastal areas overnight, but
are expected to remain south of ECP/TLH, with only BKN-SCT 4k ft
cigs note at these terminals. So, VFR conditions expected through
the period. West-Southwest winds veer to the northwest with the
passage of a cold front, increasing to around 10 kts on Saturday.
.FIRE WEATHER...
There are minimal fire weather concerns expected for the next
several days outside of occasional high or low dispersions.
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts will generally be around half an inch or less,
primarily across the SE Florida Big Bend associated with tomorrows`
cold front. Isolated higher amounts are possible within heavy
showers. Thunderstorm potential is low. There are no flooding
concerns at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 70 39 64 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 55 67 41 64 48 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dothan 48 62 34 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 49 65 35 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 52 70 37 63 42 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cross City 59 74 42 65 45 / 10 30 0 0 0
Apalachicola 58 69 42 63 49 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Gulf.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver