Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/08/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021
In the near term forecast, a relatively hot and dry boundary layer
will be replaced with a cooler, and eventually considerably more
moist boundary layer especially as we head toward Monday night. At
75 degrees at 1 pm, the temperatures forecast is on track for what
was expected on this anomalously warm November afternoon. Winds in
the HRRR models have been looking better with the lighter field than
the NBM was providing, and continue to trend lighter in the
afternoon, especially in the west with he 850mb trough right over
us.
Tonight, temperatures will not crash, but gradually fall, remaining
still in the low 60s by as late as 8 pm, then into the 50s bracket
through the middle of the overnight while a big separation between
the upper 40s near medicine lodge and the low 40s along the Ark
river west of Dodge reflects Monday most likely morning lows.
For Monday, a surface low develops, drawing the cold air south
through the day. The northern reaches of the area are certain to
have a much cooler afternoon with high model agreement on
temperatures somewhere in the low 60s, while farther south, major
differences exist where the NAM/NAMBC is slower with the
front/magnitude of cool air, allowing significant warming toward 80
degrees again along the Oklahoma line - as opposed to the somewhat
outlying HiRES ARW which pushed the cool air though the area much
earlier in the diurnal heating cycle. Bottom line is there is large
uncertainty from Elkhart to Liberal and eastward with respect to
Monday`s highs at this time. An uptick in low level cloudiness is
likely to fill in behind the boundary on MOnday night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021
Wednesday night looks to be the timframe where the beginning of the
true reinforcing colder air surge begins. So prior to this on
Tuesday and Wednesday, moderate fall-like temperatures can be
expected, following a cloudy, perhaps even drizzly Tuesday morning
in the eastern sections- eventually breaking out for more sun, and
temperatures rising through the 60s each day. Once the true
reinforcing colder air, that is not all that cold what what is
climatologically possible at this time of the year, rain and/or
thunderstorm chances will return to central Kansas in a brief window
ahead of the more intense cold advection. The colder airmass will
result in lows into the 30s and even 20s by late in the week, with
highs coolest on Friday, where the coldest deterministic model
(ECMWF) for example has a high of only 41 F at Hays. The warmest
of models solutions are only in the upper 40s for the same forecast
timestep. The pattern supports a dry and moderating trend to the
warm side into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021
A cold front will pass across the TAF sites around 12-15z,
resulting in a wind shift to the north at 10-13 kts. In the cooler
air at KHYS, some MVFR stratus could develop toward the end of the
period. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 68 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 41 66 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 47 76 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 43 75 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 41 63 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 74 47 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021
.AVIATION...
With the southerly winds and increase in DewPoints/moisture that has
occurred today, models are pointing to some increasing chances for
low clouds and even some fog. Its always a bit dicey the first night
of good moisture return and how the models try to develop low clouds
too quickly. NAM is the most bullish with bringing in ceilings and
low vsby at sites, with GFS MOS showing only some moderate chances
for getting some decks around dawn. HRRR and RAP low level RH are
more on the side of the GFS with only moderate/high RH levels below
850 MB pooling mainly near SAT and westward with a good influx of low
level moisture along the Rio Grande after dawn. What this spells is
a low confidence forecast. For right now am not changing the
inherited forecast of MVFR cigs developing at dawn for
SAT/SSF/AUS...and slightly later at DRT. Will wait to see the 00z run
before possibly adjusting. My bet is that will have a mix of low
clouds and patchy fog. Where the skies remain mostly clear, the
shallow fog could drop vsby down to IFR levels. If MVFR ceilings
develop, vsby likely will keep in the 2-4sm range.
With the shallow nature of the moisture return we should see the
decks go away and rise to VFR Monday afternoon. S/SE winds will be
moderate (10KT), but gusts over 20 kt at DRT. Monday night and Tue
looks to be higher confidence of MVFR ceilings at least with low
level flow getting even stronger and better moisture advection from
the south.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The main note in the short term will be the possibility of fog
tonight across South Central Texas. Synoptically the ridge of high
pressure at the mid-levels over the interior of Mexico along with
the surface high to the east will keep South Central Texas sunny and
dry through Monday night and into the long term. Models do show a
shortwave moving across North Texas tonight, but with dewpoints in
the upper 40s and lower 50s there is no real moisture for it to work
with in addition to fighting subsidence from the surface and upper
level ridges. There should be enough moisture recovery though
tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s under
mostly clear skies to produce some ground fog. This could reduce
visibility to 2 to 5 miles in some spots on Monday morning. Have
kept the broad brushed potential for fog over most of the area, but
think that the likely outcome will be more patchy and localized
spots of reduced visibility. We could also see some brief stratus
form just at and after sunrise similar to what was seen across Val
Verde county this morning as well. Any fog and low clouds that do
form will quickly mix out. Southerly flow will be a bit stronger
tomorrow with winds between 10 and 20 mph, helping afternoon highs
climb into the mid to upper 70s with continued mostly sunny weather.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The upper level ridge will remain over the southern US during the
start of this period. In the low levels high pressure will be
centered to the northeast of Texas and the flow will be from the
southeast. This will pump warmer, moister air into South Central
Texas. The higher dewpoint air will keep low temperatures in the 50s
and 60s Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High temperatures will rise
a couple of degrees each day Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday an
upper level trough will swing across Texas and a cold front will move
through West Texas. This front will move through our CWA Wednesday
night/Thursday. There won`t be much lift with this boundary and
models have been decreasing rain chances and this trend continues
today. There will only be a sliver of slight chance POPs over the
extreme eastern part of our CWA. The upper trough axis will move
across South Central Texas early Friday. The GFS has some
precipitation for us, but the blended solution is dry. We will go
with the dry model for now. Northerly flow behind the cold front will
bring cooler, drier air for the end of the week. Winds could be
breezy Friday afternoon in this northerly flow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 50 76 56 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 47 75 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 76 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 50 73 56 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 52 79 60 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 49 74 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 50 78 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 47 76 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 49 79 56 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 52 76 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 53 77 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...09
Long-Term...Morris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
715 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update...
Not much as far as changes are concerned with the evening update.
Tomorrow and Tuesday look similar to this afternoon, but with
less wind. Winds kick up again around Wednesday.
97
NOON UPDATE:
Changes for the afternoon package were minor but several things
were brought to attention for watching. Each item does not seem
to have a large enough signal to put it over the edge yet.
Monday morning fog looks to occur as low level moisture surges in
from the southeast and skies clear with light wind under the
inversion. Moisture is the main confidence question, but if it is
high enough, patchy light fog on valley bottoms of Yellowstone
and Missouri Rivers may be possible from 09-18Z.
Tuesday night as a front arrives a weak mid-level disturbance
will bring some isolated showers to the region. Temperatures and
vertical profiles hint that a small amount of freezing rain may be
possible in the far northeast. However, this looks to be trace if
it happens at all, and future forecast soundings could quickly
kill this profile reverting everything back to rain and snow
overnight.
Wednesday, cold air advection behind the front looks to bring
wind speed criteria up high enough that a Lake Wind Advisory will
be likely. The problem now is determining the timing of the
strongest winds above criteria. This will likely be honed in on
within the next 24 hours.
After the front passes the standard deviations among ensembles
500 mb rapidly increase with each period such that no confidence
exists in the forecast beyond Friday. GAH
730AM UPDATE:
Changes to the forecast this morning were focused on the radar
trends for rain across the area. The echo return band parallel
tot he big sheeps was not being adequately represented in the
hourly PoPs and had to be added in. CAMs were the best place to
grab a replacement with the NPoP from the HRRR, FV3, ARW, and
NAMNest covering the near term the best. The RAP was the odd
member out and had to be excluded this morning. Morning hourly
predictions for RH were also a bit to high and had to be dropped
for many location into the next 3 to 5 hours.
MORNING DISCUSSION:
The weak cold front currently pushing through the region has
resulted in some disorganized areas of light precipitation.
Temperature observations indicate that some of that is falling as
snow near our border with Saskatchewan. These hit and miss
disorganized slight chance to chance PoPs will continue this
morning with northern areas mixing with snow. By mid-day and
through this afternoon this light rain will diminish as it follows
the front eastward into North Dakota. Expect little if any
accumulations.
This evening through tonight, expect clearing skies and colder
temperatures behind the cold front. Many locations will likely
return to a hard freeze.
Monday through Tuesday, the overall upper level flow pattern is
generally zonal with a few small subtle weak variations of a
short- wave trough Monday night or a short-wave ridge Tuesday
morning. This should only result simply in a chance of cloudiness.
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, confidence is
increasing in the chances for rain and snow as a more organized
low pressure system quickly pushes SE through the region from the
Canadian Rockies. Although for now, model indications are showing
that most of this associated precipitation will steer around NE
Montana with little to no impact.
By Friday, strong and warmer high pressure will push into the area
again from the west, keeping conditions dry yet again.
&&
.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 0215Z
FLIGHT CAT: VFR
WINDS: Light and variable through Monday morning, then SW-W 10-15
kts Monday afternoon. Light and variable again Monday evening and
Monday night / Tuesday morning.
SYNOPSIS: High pressure will dominate the area`s weather through
Tuesday, leading to pleasant flying weather to/from area TAF
sites.
97
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
611 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021
Forecast updated to expire Red Flag Warning for parts of the
forecast area. /Hodanish
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021
Today...
A weak upper level ridge is still in place for the next 24 hours or
so with high pressure conditions, with mostly clear skies and very
mild temperatures across the entire CWA again for today. There is a
major shortwave trough upstream that is approaching the region and
due to this the mid to upper level flow will continue to increase
out of the SW over southeast Colorado later in the day. Due to this,
as well as a formation of a mesolow over over northeastern Colorado,
winds at the surface will increase out of the SW over the SLV, with
strongest winds and lower RH values over the southern portion, as
well as through the the passes and channel outward east of La Veta
Pass over Huerfano County. With the combination of low RH values
later this afternoon down to around 12 percent for the Walsenburg
area in Huerfano County and around 15 percent in the southern SLV,
red flag conditions will be possible for several hours in the
southern SLV, although confidence is not high that it will be
widespread.
Winds have already been reaching fire weather criteria over areas of
El Paso, Fremont, and Teller counties, and also borderline
reaching criteria over the upper Arkansas River Valley. With these
reports as a basis, and given the synoptically driven winds at a
higher strength of the mid to upper levels over the northern CWA,
the decision has been made to include these areas in the RFW.
Local OBs have been used to verify the models. The HRRR has been
verifying better with the splitting of the winds around the
Rampart Range, and the ADJMAV has done a much better job also
handling the winds over the past couple of days in comparison to
other models, therefore these have been included in the model
blend. CONSALL and BCCONSALL, as well as the NAMNest and RAP13
have all been underplaying the strength of the winds. These winds
are expected to come down below the critical fire weather
threshold by 6pm.
The downsloping winds have also further heated up the plains, even
slightly warmer than yesterday. Some areas could top out in the
upper 80s and it is likely if that is the case that more daily
records will be broken over the plains again and a record has
already been tied for Colorado Springs of 77. Otherwise all other
areas of the CWA will be right around or slightly above the seasonal
average, ranging from the low to mid 80s over the plains, to upper
60s and 70s for the high mountains and valleys, to the 40s and 50s
for high country, and around 35 degrees for the fourteeners.
Tonight...
Skies becoming mostly cloudy with increasing high clouds throughout
the late evening and overnight due to a Baroclinic leaf associated
with the major shortwave trough upstream. Gusty downsloping winds
will continue to weaken, however, downsloping and mixing winds in
the lower levels will inhibit certain locations over the plains to
not get as much radiational cooling. In the lower Arkansas River
Valley, where it is more wind protected, lows will drop off near the
freezing mark, otherwise lows over the plains will generally be in
the upper 30s to upper 40s, and 20s to 30s for all high country.
Tomorrow...
The major shortwave trough will begin to move over across the region
as an open wave and an associated cold front will move down over the
plains by later morning, with FROPA occurring for Colorado Springs
around noon, and then passing over Pueblo around 1 PM and eventually
make its way down over the southern plains by around 3-4 PM. The
timing of this front will determine just how warm areas of the
plains get to before the passage and a windshift from SW`ly to NE`ly
occurs with a subsequent cooldown thereafter. Winds out ahead of
this trough look to be quite strong and gusty over the SLV and east
of La Veta Pass by the early afternoon hours, however RH values with
the ensemble members are near criteria in some areas, but overall
above the 15 percent mark. Keep this in mind, there is not a good
confidence that Red Flag conditions will occur, and more likely only
be in spotty areas and not widespread coverage. Some snow showers
could occur later in the evening over the northern ContDvd,
otherwise this will be a very dry trough with only virga possibly
occurring over areas of the northern CWA. High temperatures will be
much cooler than previous days, topping out around the mid 60s over
the northern plains, to the upper 70s over the southern plains.
Highs in the SLV and upper Arkansas River Valley will generally be
in the 60s, 50s for the high mountain valleys, 30s and 40s for high
country, and fourteeners will be around 30 degrees. -Stewey
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021
Main Points:
1)Near critical fire weather conditions over the southern I-25 and
the southern San Luis Valley on Tuesday afternoon.
2)Persistent snowfall expected over the Sawatch and Mosquito
Mountains from late Tuesday night through Friday morning.
Accumulations will be less than 5" over the mountains.
3) Low potential for strong downslope winds over the western portion
of the mountain valleys and the lee of the Ramparts on Wednesday
morning.
Monday Night through Wednesday:
The first part of the cold front passed earlier, shifting the winds
to the east-northeast, but a secondary stronger surge will reach the
plains by around midnight Tuesday morning. Dew points will increase
and temperatures decrease (in addition to the nighttime cooling)
behind the front. There may be an isolated shower over the Palmer
Divide during the overnight, but it is unlikely. During Tuesday
morning, the upper pattern shifts to weak ridging aloft, keeping the
region dry, but later in the day the next shortwave begins to impact
the San Luis Valley by early Tuesday afternoon. Gusty southwesterly
winds are expected over the southern San Luis Valley, which will
create near critical fire weather conditions. A lee cyclone develops
over the southern plains on Tuesday afternoon, which will create
gusty winds over the southeastern plains, which will once again
create near critical fire weather conditions. The limiting factor
for both locations will be above 15% relative humidity values due to
slightly colder air mass overhead.
Late Tuesday evening snow will begin to fall over the Sawatch and
Mosquito Mountains. A second trough will reach the mountains during
the early morning on Wednesday which will increase snowfall rates.
Wednesday afternoon will be the best chance for any precip over the
plains as the trough axis swings overhead. Looking at ensemble
members... The EPS is split half and half on precipitation falling
over El Paso County (COS and FLY) and half of those members yet
think it will fall as snow as compared to rain. The GEFS members are
bone dry, outside of two members. It is the same story for the
southern I-25 corridor. So overall, snow showers are unlikely over
the plains on Wednesday, but an isolated rain shower is possible,
therefore isolated PoPs have been included from Wednesday afternoon
through early Thursday morning.
A strong jet streak aloft is expected to be orthogonal to the
mountains as it swings overhead on Wednesday, so there is some
concern for enhanced winds from a downslope wind storm. Model
sounding show a mountain top inversion, especially over the upper
Arkansas River Valley, but it is also evident over the eastern San
Juan and the Ramparts. There is now reverse shear, though, so right
now some strong wind gusts are expected, but not any High Wind
Warning criteria winds.
Thursday and Sunday:
Northwesterly flow aloft will keep snow showers over the Sawatch and
Mosquito ranges through Thursday and into Friday morning, but
accumulations will be less than 4" throughout the event. The
northwesterly flow will keep temperatures cool across the region on
Thursday and Friday, but some upper level ridging will form overhead
on Saturday and Sunday, increasing temperatures to more seasonal
levels. Dry conditions are expected across the region after the snow
ends over the Sawatch mountains Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 346 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites throughout the forecast
period. Winds will be generally diurnally driven, however, due to an
approaching trough, there will be stronger winds out of the SSW-SW
for all terminals throughout to early part of this evening and could
be gusty at times. Due to this, be advised that there could be some
light to moderate CAT near the surface in vicinity of all terminals
during the afternoon hours. FROPA is going to occur around 17Z at
KCOS and 18Z at KPUB, so expect a windshift to occur around this
time and backing from N to SE at KCOS, and increasing out of the ESE
at KPUB. Winds at KALS will also increase later in the afternoon
again out of the SW and be gusty towards the end of the forecast
period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...STEWARD