Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1150 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.AVIATION...
Widely scattered light snow showers will shift east of the terminals
as the forecast period begins with lower VFR ceilings in the 5-7kft
range persisting into the early morning hours before a shortwave
sweeps through the area. Mainly clear skies should then prevail into
Thursday afternoon before diurnal cu/strato-cu develop into a sct-
bkn coverage. Light west to southwest winds under 10 knots will be
the rule through Thursday evening.
For DTW...Cloud bases are expected to generally remain aob 5000 feet
with light westerly winds under 10 knots with cigs focus during the
early morning hours and again in the afternoon.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight and again Thursday aftn.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021
DISCUSSION...
Very dry airmass in place over the Great Lakes Region, with 12z
APX/DTX/GRB indicating PW values around a quarter of an inch/around
50 percent of normal values. This dry air had been keeping lake
effect activity rather subdued, despite 850 MB temps of -7 to -8 C.
The question is whether there will be notable uptick tonight, as
compact upper wave/cold pool seen on latest water vapor imagery over
Lake Superior sweeps through the Central Great lakes tomorrow
morning. Nam soundings do indicate SBcapes aoa 50 J/kg underneath the
trough axis on Thursday (15z Rap suggests over 100 J/kg), with half
of the cape in the DGZ, as EQL heights reach 8 kft. Preference will
be to include a slight chance of a snow/rain shower, but pops should
probably be closer to 10 percent than 20 percent. Solid overcast
noted of much of Wisconsin (5-6 kft), thus preconditioned/saturated
profile near 850 MB west of Lake Michigan, adds a touch higher
confidence, as some models appear to be underestimating those
clouds/moisture. Even so, still enough partial clearing tonight to
support lows in the upper 20s...to around freezing in the urban heat
island of Detroit. Temps still stuck in the 40s tomorrow, before
temps reach and exceed normal values over the Weekend.
The North American longwave trough east of the Mississippi River
finally breaks down Friday, with solid warm advection over southeast
Michigan carrying into Saturday, as 850 MB temps reach around 3 C.
The upper level Pacific energy/PV working through Minnesota Friday
night looks rather disorganized, and the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge
axis gets pinched off and diminishes as it travels through lower
Michigan on Saturday, thus a continued dry forecast appears
appropriate as bulk of forcing moves through the northern Great
Lakes. It was interesting to see the reversal amongst the 00z
EURO/Canadian vs 12z runs. The old runs had the 700-500 MB low/trough
lagging back around Chicago late Saturday, before diving southeast
into the Eastern Ohio Valley. Regardless, the warm advection pattern
will kick back in for Sunday, as rather amplified upper level ridge
(574+ DAM at 500 MB) for November standards builds into the Central
Great lakes, sliding into the Eastern Great Lakes on Monday. 925 MB
temps rising aoa 10 C suggests highs climbing aoa 60 F on Monday with
the favorable southwest winds ahead of what looks to be a dry cold
front.
MARINE...
Light W/NW flow persists over the Great Lakes this afternoon and
evening as a broad region of high pressure expands into the Ohio
Valley, further relaxing the surface gradient. Instability driven by
large air-lake surface temperatures and weak upper level wave
sagging southward continue to support light rain/snow showers,
mainly across northern Lake Huron, through daytime tomorrow. A
pattern shift to drier conditions prevails for the end of the week
as high pressure influence takes hold, with winds gradually backing
to the SW. Next period of unsettled weather arrives this weekend as
the wind field increases ahead of another approaching upper level
disturbance.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
230 PM PDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move across the area tonight
bringing locally heavy rain and strong southerly wind gusts.
Showers and breezy conditions will follow in the cooler air on
Thursday. A series of weaker fronts will bring periodic rain
Friday through the weekend. Stronger, potentially wetter and
colder storms are expected early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A fairly potent surface low (996mb central
pressure) near 41N 134W has been steadily tracking NNE today.
Pressure gradients will tighten this evening as a surface front
moves onshore. IVT values are around 300-600kg/m/s will accompany
the front this evening. National Blend of Models indicate rain rates
over 0.50-0.75in/hr occurring with topographic forcing in the King
Range and mountains of Del Norte Counties. Rain rates also increase
to 0.30 to 0.40in/hr over the Trinity Mountains and over River
Complex Burn Scar. HRRR indicates higher rain rates, over 0.50in/hr,
however this may be overdone. The duration of the heavy rain,
compared to a debris flow event that occurred on Thursday, Oct 21,
is much shorter. We leaned on the side of caution and hoisted a
flash flood watch for debris flow for the River Complex Burn Scar. A
particular vulnerable location is Coffee Creek and vicinity where
debris flow has already occurred with longer duration heavy rain in
October.
The brief period of heavy rain this evening will transition to
showers later tonight. Cooling aloft with a trailing shortwave
trough will follow on Thursday, with another round of showers,
mostly north of Cape Mendocino Thursday morning. Brief heavy
showers will possible, mainly across northern Humboldt and Del
Norte Counties. High pressure will start to build in the
afternoon on Thursday with showers and breezy winds steadily
decreasing through the day.
Models continue to indicate a weak front bringing a potential for
light to moderate rain on Friday, mainly for Del Norte and
northern Humboldt Counties. The GFS and ECMWF have been really out
of sync. The ECMWF has been considerably wetter. Another low
pressure system will approach Friday night, likely bringing another
round of light to moderate rain and perhaps gusty southerly winds.
For now, leaned toward the National Blend of Models versus placing
all bets on the GFS or ECMWF deterministic models. The highest
chances for significant rain (over 1.00in in 24hrs) will be in
climatologically favorable Del Norte/northern Humboldt Counties,
while the lowest chances will be across SE Mendocino and southern
Lake Counties this weekend.
A potentially wetter and colder storm will impact the area
early to mid next week. Strong winds, locally heavy rain will
be possible as well as lower snow levels. Lower snow levels could
impact the higher elevations of Trinity County, Scott Mountain
Pass that is. Large surf is also in the realm of possibilities,
however that will depend on the GFS surface winds this these
NE PAC storms.
&&
.AVIATION...Rain will start to spread southeast across the forecast
area late this afternoon as a cold front approaches. Some bouts of
heavy rain will be possible this evening and as we head into the
overnight period. Mostly a combination of anywhere from IFR to VFR
conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period.
Winds are expected to be quite gusty ahead of the approaching
boundary, particularly at KCEC, where gusts to 45 knots will be
possible. Widespread rain should taper off as head into the early
morning hours tomorrow and then give way to a more showery regime.
In addition, low-level wind shear is forecast through most of the
TAF period at all terminals, and can sometimes be expected to be
quite strong.
&&
.MARINE...Southerlies will continue to ramp up through this evening
and peak as near gale to gales over the northern waters. Gale
Warnings are in place to cover these gusty winds for both northern
zones. Steep, short-period seas will continue to build throughout
all zones in response to the increasing winds. In addition, a brief
period of gusts to gale force in strength will be possible in a
portion of the southern waters this evening, but this is expected to
be rather brief. Winds will ease throughout the day on Thursday, but
another increase is forecast over the coastal waters starting early
Friday. Winds will remain elevated over the northern waters and
portions of the southern waters as we head into the weekend. A
larger mid-period west swell will move through the waters on later
today and peak between 16 and 18 feet around 13 seconds tomorrow
afternoon. Otherwise, a similar west-northwest swell is forecast to
move through the waters starting on Saturday.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH HAZARDS...High astronomical tides
combined with increasing southerly winds will likely bring some
localized minor coastal flooding to the Humboldt Bay region on
Friday and Saturday. Particularly vulnerable locations include
Jackson Ranch Road in the Arcata Bottoms and the King Salmon area.
Saturday will have the highest tides and this could approach 8.9
ft at Crescent City where the potential for flooding begins. There
is a large swell expected to build into the waters right around
this time and is expected to build to around 17 feet at 13
seconds. This would bring surf heights to about 20 feet, just
below high surf advisory criteria of 21 feet. The combination of
these very high tides, which will likely be increased by the long
period of southerly winds, could wash over some roads near the
coast including Highway 101. If the swell comes in a few hours
later than expected the impacts would be much lower. MKK
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday
for CAZ101-103-104.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ102-105>107.
Flash Flood Watch for Debris Flow on the River Complex
Burn Scar from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Thursday
for CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday
for PZZ450.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475.
&&
$$
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
945 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
Updated the forecast for tonight into Thursday morning for a Fog
Advisory in effect for 4 AM to Noon Thursday. The 00Z HRRR
continues to hit a big chunk of our CWA hard with fog tonight
behind the clearing of sky cover occurring right now. The SREF is
trending toward more fog as well, so it seemed prudent to issue
the Fog Advisory for almost all of the CWA, except our far
southern row of counties in north central Kansas where the signal
for fog is weaker.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
Main issue will be possible fog as clouds clear from west to east.
Models are trending toward this, and we could get dense fog for at
least a few hours late overnight into early Thursday morning.
Ceilings could be IFR/LIFR as well, depending on how much fog
develops, and then lifts during the early morning as fog begins to
burn off.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Thursday for NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Thursday for KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
952 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold surface high pressure will build over to the north of the
region as a slow moving cold front remains to our south. Moisture
will return from the west over the front through early Thursday,
with high elevation mountain snow likely developing. The system will
push east of the area Thursday night into Friday, but an upper
disturbance could affect the southeast for the early part of the
weekend. High pressure will gradually settle in from the north
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 930 PM: High elevation radar echoes are still seen across
East TN into NW NC and Virginia, parallel to a jet streak extending
across the middle to lower Ohio Valley. Sfc high pressure is ridging
down from our north. That jetlet will shift east overnight, with
upper divergence increasing over our CWA as a result. The associated
upper trough axis is also upstream and set to swing east; pockets
of DPVA preceding it seem to be responsible for the area of light
showers traversing Upstate SC attm. These were not well handled by
earlier guidance, with the 18z NAMNest having been closest. Latest
HRRR does pick up on it, and revised PoP leans heavily on these
models` trends. They generally advect the current activity out and
bring more in from the west later with another vort max and the
upper divergence. That precip still looks rather light, with limited
moisture to work with owing to relatively dry low levels. By the
early morning hours, still expect increasing precip chances/coverage
across the SE half of the CWA as upglide strengthens over sfc high,
ahead of the trough axis. Moisture will be much better in this
area as is guidance QPF response, and we still favor likely PoP
for much of this area during the early to mid morning.
Competing factors of evaporative cooling and the WAA/moisture
advection, coupled with temps already near freezing in the highest
elevations, pose a p-type challenge. Still not expecting any
significant accums that would warrant a Winter Wx Advisory. The
latest guidance is in good agreement with a downward QPF trend
the past couple runs as most of the saturation will occur due to
synoptic lift as opposed to llvl moist adv. Soundings still show a
near zero isothermal layer setting up across the mtns making the
case for decent snowfall rates...yet sfc temps will be too warm
over most locales except for the higher elevations, abv 3500 ft,
for any snow accum. Updated PoP/QPF and also sfc temp/wet-bulbs;
derived p-type from the wet bulb values. Temps are looking warmer
for the Piedmont owing to the cloud cover and moistening effect of
this first round of light precip. Near-steady temps are expected in
high elevations, so the snow setup doesn`t look to get any better
and precip should remain very light. So from the snow standpoint,
the event still looks to remain sub-advisory level. Best accums
are expected in the Balsams, decreasing as one goes to the peaks
further north. Black ice could develop where temps do fall below
freezing, but that most likely will be only on the very highest
elevation roadways.
It will be a cold and wet day east of the mtns Thu as the sfc
wedge persists before the moist sfc trof crosses east. High temps
will only rise abt 8-10 degrees from morning mins and struggle
to reach 50 F over the non/mtns, while the mtn valleys remain in
the mid 40s. Values have been lowered slightly with 6 PM update
following a trend in guidance, reflecting greater confidence on
precip development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT Wednesday: Confidence average at best into
the weekend as model guidance has been having some trouble with
run-to-run consistency with regard to cyclogenesis off the Southeast
coast Friday night into Saturday. Before we get there, confidence
is better that low temps will drop down near/below freezing in at
least the I-40 corridor on Thursday night. Most of the guidance
has come in with temps down within a deg or two of freezing in the
nrn foothills/NW Piedmont as high pressure builds in from the north
overnight. There are concerns about this being more of an advective
freeze...and the best cold advection will actually be to our east
early Friday morning...and the possibility of some lingering cloud
cover that might mess up the low temps...especially closer to the
Blue Ridge Escarpment. However, we balance that concern against
our tendency to underestimate how cold it might get for the first
freeze of the season and thus miss freeze warnings. With that in
mind, we will issue a Freeze Watch for those zones in western NC
outside the mtns that are within a degree of 32F with fcst morning
lows early Friday, based on a guidance blend. Right now, most of
metro Charlotte looks a bit too warm, but this will be evaluated
further. As to the coastal cyclogenesis, the latest run of the
GFS and earlier ECMWF runs continue to keep the western edge of
the system just east of the fcst area, perhaps scraping by Union
County NC Saturday. So, we shall keep most of the fcst area dry
and under the influence of sfc high pressure ridging back from
the northeast. Temps will be cool...much more like early winter,
though...with highs about ten degrees below normal...and lows down
into the 30s again Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 131 pm EDT Wednesday: Assuming the system off the Southeast
coast stays to our east in later model runs, the medium range
should remain quiet and benign. The aforementioned system is
shown in model guidance to lift northeast off the Mid-Atlantic
coast on Sunday. Temps should start to rebound as high pressure
builds in from the west. After that is out of the way, a flattening
upper ridge builds in quickly, leaving us with nearly zonal flow
aloft by Tuesday, supporting sfc high pressure weakening over the
Southeast. Temps will warm back up a bit above normal for the first
half of next week as a result. There is some concern about a sfc
front being strung out to our north on Wednesday, but for now the
guidance keeps that boundary across KY/WV/VA and any precip north
of our fcst area, so the fcst for Wednesday was kept dry.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR cigs for most of the area overnight,
with dry high pressure at the sfc but moist upglide set to amplify
above this airmass as CAD develops. KAVL is the exception where at
least periodic MVFR cigs appear likely via terrain effects. Light
precip generally will develop via the combo of the upglide and
dynamic lift from jet streak and shortwave encroaching on the
area from the west. -DZ and possibly very light SHRA will affect
the Upstate sites this evening, with expanding coverage and precip
rates expected later tonight as forcing comes to a head. Cigs will
lower into restrictive range during the morning, with IFR settling
into all sites. Best chance of precip at KAVL will be overnight,
and for the other sites in the first half of the daytime hours. As
dynamic forcing diminishes with eastward progress of upper level
features later in the day, numerous model sources depict drying
with building high pressure from the north, and thus a loss of
cigs. Leaned in favor of MOS, which hangs onto the clouds longer
as a result of the CAD, and only allowed late-period improvement
at KCLT and KAND.
Outlook: Flight conds rebound to VFR on Friday, after which dry
hipres is in store for the weekend and beyond.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
for NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-072-502-504-506.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...Wimberley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
813 PM PDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.UPDATE...Busy evening with lingering aviation concerns due to low
clouds and some fog and the need to interrogate the possibility of
a mesoscale high wind event in central Oregon on Thursday. The
SPC HREF, experimental NBM 4.1 and the HRRR all show a band of
50-65 kt surface winds setting up along the east slopes of the
Washington Cascades Thursday morning through early to mid
afternoon. These winds will have the potential to downslope into
the Bend area and cause damage to trees and powerlines. The 00Z
NAM shows strong subsidence in the Bend area Thursday which should
help mix these winds to the surface. With all this in mind have
recently issued a High Wind Warning for the east slopes of the
Washington Cascades and central Oregon from 7 AM - 3 PM Thursday.
78
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM PDT Wed Nov 3 2021/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Active weather
will impact the region in the short term with rain likely for
much of our CWA, and strong winds for tomorrow. Snow levels of
around 9-10 kft, dropping to 4-5 kft tomorrow afternoon and
evening following cold frontal passage mean any snow will remain
confined to the higher mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
tomorrow afternoon and evening for much of our CWA.
Satellite shows a deep upper low lurking off the coast of SW OR/NW
CA this afternoon. As it approaches, pressure gradients will
tighten causing winds to increase. As we head into the evening and tonight,
the HREF advertises 850 mb winds of 30-45 mph across the foothills
of the Blues and through the Grande Ronde Valley. As such, winds
are expected to remain breezy to windy through the Grande Ronde
Valley through the night. We will continue to monitor in case any
wind highlights are needed, though none have currently been
issued as the current forecast is just below advisory criteria.
The Blues and foothills of the Blues will see increasing winds as
well, though currently look to remain largely confined upwards of
the 2000-3000 ft range so not expecting strong downslope winds to
infiltrate the more populated areas.
Rain will begin across the Cascades starting this evening and will
spread east overnight. As stated earlier, snow levels will
initially be high, around 9-10 kft so all but the highest peaks
will see rain. As we head into later tomorrow morning and the
afternoon, stronger winds will spread east across much of our CWA,
except perhaps for areas that are sheltered from southwesterly
winds such as the Yakima Valley, Kittitas Valley, and John Day
Basin. The HREF is advertising gusts in the 45-55 mph range from
roughly noon through the evening, with the potential for even
higher gusts along exposed ridges across the Cascades. As such, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for multiple zones tomorrow. Winds
will gradually decrease overnight into Friday morning. Rain
amounts look light across the lower elevations, ranging from
a few hundredths to around two tenths of an inch. The Blues will
see roughly a quarter of an inch to an inch, highest in the
northern Blues, while the Cascade crest and eastern slopes will
range from around two tenths to two inches, highest along the
crest. Plunkett/86
LONG TERM...Friday through Next Tuesday...
The upper pattern looks to remain quite active this weekend into the
first half of next week as a persistent upper low remains anchored
across the north Pacific. This feature looks to send a series of
shortwave troughs into the Pacific Northwest, with bouts of rain,
wind, and mountain snow through the next week.
On the heels of a rather impressive storm system Thursday, a series
of weaker systems will impact the region from Friday through the
weekend. This will occur as a persistent southwest flow develops on
the southern periphery of a powerful cutoff low over the northern
Pacific. A cluster analysis of the ensembles demonstrates rather
good agreement through the weekend in the placement of this feature
with only subtle differences in smaller scale waves. Initially,
having been somewhat worked over, and with only modest lift, expect
most precipitation to be confined to mountainous regions such as the
Cascades and their adjacent slopes, and the Blues and Wallowas of
northeast Oregon and southeast Washington. Progressing through the
weekend, with slightly better vapor transport and upper support, we
may well see precipitation down to the basin floor Saturday into
Sunday, though total amounts appear rather low. Snow levels look to
hover around 4000-5000ft initially, falling to around 3000 ft over
the Washington Cascades by Saturday, and further by Sunday with the
passage of cold fronts. Given the persistent precipitation in the
higher elevations, some decent snow totals appear probable above
4000 feet. Accumulating snow also appears possible down to pass
level in the Washington Cascades, though amounts look manageable
given the prolonged period over which snow may fall and the
generally low snowfall rates.
Greater ensemble spread is apparent heading into next week with
several members depicting a brief respite in precipitation late
Sunday through Monday. From Tuesday into Wednesday, ensembles are
pointing to another potentially significant storm system. Ensemble
clusters reveal the greatest spread lies with exactly how deep the
incoming trough will be as well as how quickly it will move ashore.
Thus, confidence overall is relatively low at this time in precise
impacts. However, should this system adhere more closely to ECMWF
ensembles, another round of gusty winds, valley rain, and mountain
snow can be expected sometime late Monday to late Tuesday. With
lower snow levels, this could also be more impactful to the Cascade
passes. Stay tuned! Austin/79
AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Expect MVFR and IFR ceiling and visibilities
to remain problematic due to stratus and some fog tonight...then
rain and BR late tonight and Thursday. Ceilings and VSBYS should
improve Thursday afternoon as a cold front moves through but winds
will pick up especially at KRDM and KBDN where gusts of 35-40kt
appear likely. Also at those two sites there is the potential for
low level wind shear late tonight and Thursday morning due to the
presence of a strong low level jet. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 41 62 36 57 / 50 50 0 0
ALW 44 64 40 60 / 40 70 10 10
PSC 45 63 41 57 / 50 50 0 0
YKM 42 57 33 54 / 90 60 10 20
HRI 44 63 39 57 / 60 50 0 0
ELN 41 54 34 51 / 80 60 10 20
RDM 44 55 32 53 / 60 40 0 20
LGD 49 58 35 54 / 30 70 10 0
GCD 49 59 35 57 / 30 40 0 0
DLS 46 60 40 55 / 90 80 20 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ509-511.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ041-044-
507-508.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ510.
WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ024-028-
029-521.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....79
AVIATION...78
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
956 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
Have been watching for potential fog development across north
central KS as cloud deck slowly moves east. There appears to be an
axis of higher dewpoints through central KS. But there should also
be some wind in the boundary layer and BUFKIT soundings from the
NAM and RAP for CNK suggests there could be enough mixing in the
boundary layer for stratus to be favored over fog. Also the NBM
shows a better potential (about 30%) for low clouds developing
around by sunrise while also keeping visibilties at 10SM. Most
operational guidance fails to develop lower visibilities across
Cloud or Republic counties too. So the potential for dense fog
appears to be to low at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
All quiet across the area this afternoon. High pressure is in place
over the region, in the favorable region of subsidence on the back
side of a large upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Persistent
cloud cover has kept temperatures in the 40s across much of the
area, with a few spots hitting 50 where there has been a sliver of
clearing across east-central Kansas. Overnight, these clouds will
largely stay in place. This should keep temperatures a bit warmer
than last night, with lows generally in the mid 30s. Can`t rule out
some fog again in any places where skies do clear out, but at
this point any fog formation is too tough to pin down.
Tomorrow, skies will begin to clear more as high pressure slides
farther east and winds become more southerly. WAA will be fairly
weak at first, but with the increased sunshine highs will warm into
the mid 50s. Some spots across north-central Kansas should approach
60. WAA increases a bit more into Friday, allowing highs near 60
across most of the area.
The warming trend will continue into the weekend and early next week
as the East Coast trough moves a bit farther away and upper ridging
builds eastward towards the Plains. Above average temperatures look
likely for this period, with highs near 70 and lows in the 50s. As
the upper ridge axis will remain west of the area, appreciable
moisture return should be hard to come by. This keeps the
forecast looking dry through early next week. A chance for showers
and storms may arrive by mid-next week with the approach of a
stronger upper trough, but this is not until the very end of the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021
RAP and NAM have a pretty good signal for the CIGS between 3 and 7
KFT persisting through the night as they slowly shift east. This
should all but eliminate potential for radiational fog. Forecast
soundings keep CIGS above 3 KFT at the terminals, and think the
cloud cover should mix out by early afternoon with temps expected
to warm into the lower and middle 50s.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters