Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/02/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1004 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Cloud cover has decreased over most areas as expected, with a few spots lingering over central North Dakota. Going forecast reflects this well, so minimal changes were needed. UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Flurries over parts of the area will continue to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Clouds will also be on the decrease as the evening goes on. For early evening update, only change needed was to slow the clearing of the clouds a bit. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Below normal temperatures continue through the short term forecast period. Cyclonic flow aloft with cold mid-level temperatures contributing to steep lapse rates were allowing isolated showers of flurries to develop over central North Dakota this afternoon. This activity should diminish rapidly with loss of surface heating this evening. Tonight, the broad low will shift east and allow a surface high to build over the Dakotas. RAP places the center of the surface high over eastern South Dakota by 12Z, which is a favorable location for colder than guidance temperatures over western North Dakota. A blend of MOS guidance produces lows at least several degrees colder than the NBM, thus this blend was used for tonight`s low temperature forecast. Lows of 10 to 20 degrees be common across western and much of central North Dakota, while a few locations dipping into the single digits in the west can`t be ruled out. Tuesday remains cool, especially central-east where the surface high remains. Winds turn southerly in the west where highs will be slightly warmer. Highs from the low 40s southwest to the upper 30s elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 A mostly dry forecast with temperatures becoming warmer highlights the long term forecast period. Mid-week synoptic picture will be highlighted by a deep eastern trough from a Hudson Bay low while a ridge builds over the Rockies and Great Basin, with an upstream Pacific trough approaching the west coast. This initial pattern will continue northerly flow over the Northern Plains, then transition to ridging as the eastern low begins to give way. Temperatures will begin to moderate Wednesday, with highs in the 50s becoming common Friday/Saturday. Flow aloft becomes stronger as the upper level jet moves over the region Friday through the weekend, which should bring several fronts through the period. However in deterministic guidance each wave is relatively low-amplitude and features unfocused ascent foci with low QPF. Thus blended forecast remains mostly dry, but can`t rule out low chance precipitation at any location. These fast moving and low- amplitude waves will also impact the upper ceiling of highs this weekend as well. The clustering of 500mb heights shows anomalous ridging in each solution but with a question of mean amplitude and thus uncertain strength of potential cold fronts. NBM probabilities show the 25th percentile at around the climatological normal, with a 75th percent chance of above normal temperatures, thus it seems fair to say that even with several fronts moving through the area, above normal temperatures are still likely. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
533 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 455 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Dense fog has developed this afternoon along the I-80 Summit in the South Laramie Range with visibility below one-quarter mile. Model soundings and latest HRRR guidance suggests these reductions in visibility should continue through this evening. In addition, light freezing drizzle is possible leading to slick roads in spots and therefore a Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued. This will impact the evening commute along Interstate 80 between Cheyenne and Laramie along with portions of US-287 south of Laramie. This advisory may need to be extended through the night, but for now is in effect through midnight. Fog is possible in other areas across the CWA tonight so will also need to keep a watch for additional areas of dense fog development. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Concerns for the short term deal with moderate snow in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges tonight into Tuesday. Currently...Next shortwave beginning to move into west central Wyoming this afternoon. Surface boundary lays along northwestern Colorado this afternoon as the shortwave moves southeast along the boundary. Short range mesoscale guidance shows snow developing across the southern Carbon County late this evening around 06Z. Surface boundary looks to wave a little further north to near the Colorado/Wyoming line as the upper shortwave approaches. Best times for more widespread snow appears to be 12Z to maybe 21Z Tuesday. Getting enough for Advisory level snow in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges above 8500 feet. Decided to issue a WInter Weather Advisory for those two mountain zones. Further east...GFS soundings showing fairly widespread fog profiles tonight into Tuesday morning. Did add areas of fog for elevations below 4500 feet elevation. Will be ample low level moisture for fog development as most of the southern Panhandle had 3-6 inches of snow and we are looking at weak upsloping easterly winds overnight. 700mb temperatures begin to warm Wednesday night into Thursday as upper ridging returns. Temperatures climb to 0C Wednesday night and +4 to +6C warmer temperatures are expected to return. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Overall, there are no major changes from prior forecasts. The main challenges for the long term period are warming temperatures and the potential for high winds. The ridge axis will slowly shift eastward from the Great Basin on Thursday to the Great Plains by the weekend as a broad trough and active storm track works its way into the West Coast. On Friday, a shortwave riding over the top of the ridge will increase pressure gradients across our region, also shifting the flow aloft from NW to WSW. We are thus watching the potential for elevated winds starting late Thursday night through Friday associated with this system. Guidance has backed off slightly on the wind intensity with the latest runs, and this is expected to continue to waffle as it gets closer. For now, nudged the forecast to the GFS to better capture the possibility for elevated winds particularly in the higher terrain and wind prone spots. Zonal flow aloft continues through the weekend decent pressure gradients remaining over the region which could create gusty winds again on Saturday and Sunday. Following the trend towards increased upper level ridging by this weekend, we expect temperatures to return to above normal values for the long term period. 700mb temperatures are expected to be above zero, and coupled with the downslope wind potential, could produce warm surface highs reaching into the 60s east of the Laramie range by the weekend. While active weather continues over the west coast, the forecast looks relatively dry for our region, with low probabilities of precipitation. The only exception is a slight chance for precipitation in the higher terrain Thursday night into Friday morning with the shortwave discussed above. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 531 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Tonight should be fairly quiet weather wise compared to the last couple of nights. Low ceilings are expected to continue through the night and into the day tomorrow as yet another storm system moves through. KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS see the greatest chance of snow and rain showers sometime after midnight and into tomorrow night. The terminals in the Nebraska Panhandle may see reduced visibilities due to fog later tonight and into the morning hours. Snow on the ground, some low-level saturation, and light winds could produce some areas of patchy fog. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Fire weather concerns will be minimal the next few days as winter weather has impacted most areas with accumulating snow and cold temperatures. Another round of snow tonight into Tuesday. Look for warming temperatures and increasing winds towards the end of the week. Afternoon humidity stays well above critical levels though Friday and fire weather concerns remain minimal. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ112-114. Freezing Fog Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ116. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MB SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...SF FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
937 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 519 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Have updated the going forecast to add in areas of fog in Red Willow county, based on the latest obs from the McCook area. Latest guidance showing this persisting for several hours more before lifting out late. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows the CWA with a west-northwesterly flow aloft as the CWA is between a upper air ridge to the west and an upper air trough to the northeast. Currently, there are some light rain showers in Yuma and Kit Carson counties that look to advance east- southeastward over the next few hours though there is not great confidence that they may even last that long. Any precipitation accumulation from these showers looks to be minimal. Temperatures in the CWA for the rest of the afternoon look to range between the upper 30s and the middle 40s with overcast skies continuing into the evening. On Monday night, models show the western ridge progressing a bit eastward and weakening with a weak trough trailing it near NV/UT. At the surface, chances for a light rain/snow mix begin in the western portion of the CWA courtesy of moisture moving in from the northwest. These chances for precipitation spread eastward over the remainder of the CWA overnight and transition to light snow as the temperatures get colder. Currently, forecasted snowfall totals look to be a few tenths in some areas at the most though this can change if a band sets up. There currently is low confidence in a band setting up as not all models show it forming though the NAM does suggest the possibility of it developing near southwestern portion of the CWA. Because of the uncertainty, going to keep the snowfall totals lower as mentioned earlier. Overnight lows for Monday look to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s range. On Tuesday, model guidance shows the ridge flattening as the western trough merges with the northeastern trough by Tuesday evening giving the CWA a west-northwesterly flow. At the surface, patchy fog may be possible lowering visibility in the northern portions of the CWA during the morning hours though not enough confidence to put them in at the moment as short term models make seem to favor low level clouds over fog at the moment. Chances for light precipitation look to continue throughout the day with P-type changing to rain with warmer temperatures during the day and then transitioning back to mostly snow again overnight. Current QPF values looks to be around a tenth of an inch at most which translates to a minimal amount of snowfall expected. Daytime highs on Tuesday look to be in the lower to middle 40s with overnight lows around the 30 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 This part of the forecast will be dry due to an upper level ridge dominating the weather pattern for most of the period. The ridge may break down and become more of a zonal flow pattern, however that may not happen until the weekend if it does happen. The ridge dominated weather pattern will allow for warmer weather to return to the forecast area. If the ridge breaks down, a cold front may move into the forecast area this weekend. Models disagree if the front will even move far enough south to impact the forecast area. However if it does move in am not expecting any precipitation with it at this time. If the ridge is pushed south another cold front may move through Monday, however confidence is also low that this will occur due to model disagreement with the frontal timing and upper level pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 For KGLD, MVFR/VFR ceilings expected during the forecast period with light snow transitioning to light rain after 14z Tuesday. Minor reduction to visibility in snow, but with uncertainty of light rain placement, gone with VCSH. Winds east-southeast 5-10kts transitioning to more south-southeast by 14z Tuesday. For KMCK, ceilings will persist below OVC010 during the forecast period, as low as OVC002-003 thru 17z. Through 08z Tuesday, 1-3sm in fog. Light snow thereafter with only minor reduction in visibility. Uncertainty here as well for placement of light rain after 17z, so VCSH in place. Winds light/variable thru 17z Tuesday, then southeast around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show deep cyclonic flow stretching across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes early this afternoon. One embedded shortwave is diving southeast across western Lake Superior and is generating scattered rain and snow showers with help from heat of the day. Some of these showers started spreading into north-central Wisconsin by midday but are drying up in the downsloping area over northeast WI. Clouds are once again more widespread than models indicate and should spread across all of northeast WI through the afternoon. With the upper trough continuing to reside over the region through Tuesday afternoon, cloud and light precip trends are the focus of this forecast. Tonight...Embedded shortwaves within the deep cyclonic flow will continue pass across northern Wisconsin. These shortwaves will bring periods of clouds to northern Wisconsin and extended the higher coverage of clouds into the evening hours. Comparatively speaking, northeast WI should see gradual clearing thanks to downsloping winds, but that may not happen until late tonight. The shortwaves will also bring scattered rain and snow showers to far northern WI, which may become enhanced at times with help from lake effect. Wind trajectories, in general, look too westerly for significant snow accumulations. However, some veering of the winds are possible periodically, that could bring brief heavier snow showers near the U.P. border, particularly after midnight. Around an inch of accumulations appear possible over northern Vilas. Because of the cool bias of the NationalBlend, stayed on the warmer side of guidance. Temps should fall to the mid 30s over Door County where the growing season has not officially ended. Tuesday...The upper trough axis will swing across the region, leading to very similar conditions compared to today. Should see another uptick of clouds in the afternoon with the heat of the day, though it`s possible that clouds won`t be as widespread as today. As the axis shifts east of northeast WI in the afternoon, intensity of lake effect snow showers should wane. But again, wind trajectories do not look like they will be favorable for a significant amount of snow over Vilas county for a prolong period of time. That should lead to light accumulations, perhaps up to another inch right near the U.P. border. Highs ranging from the mid 30s north to low 40s south. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Lake effect snow showers will gradually come to an end Tuesday night as winds become light and back a bit more to the west across north-central Wisconsin. An additional few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible across far northern Vilas County. High pressure will then build in across the Great Lakes region during the middle of the week, then move east towards the eastern Great Lakes and the East Coast by the end of the week into the weekend. A weak low pressure system will track through the region sometime during the weekend; however, moisture and lift will be fairly limited so the dry weather is expected to continue. Temperatures will start out below normal for this time of year, moderating to around normal late in the week and into the weekend as the area gets on the backside of the aforementioned high pressure system. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Periods of clouds with bases between 4000 and 8000 feet are expected across the region tonight. Lake effect snow showers could produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions at D25/LNL/ARV and EGV. VFR conditions are generally expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, though scattered rain and snow showers could produce brief MVFR conditions in the afternoon and early evening. Lake effect snow showers and brief IFR conditions are possible at D25/EGV and LNL, where a small snow accumulation is likely mainly on the grass. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kurimski AVIATION.......RDM
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
913 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures will be in place through the week. Aside from a slight chance for showers tonight, dry conditions are expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The 00Z KILN sounding indicates an atmosphere that remains very dry below about 750mb. Though conditions are generally close to saturation above that level, the precipitable water value is only reading just over half an inch. As the base of the upper trough settles across the Ohio Valley, a curved band of fast flow (over 100kts at 300mb) will continue to provide a favorable upper divergence region for a swath of lift, leading to enhanced cloud cover and eventually some precipitation. 18Z models (and more recent HRRR runs) continue to show a high degree of confidence in light rain moving through the far southeastern ILN CWA, but very little measurable precipitation north and west of there, perhaps with some virga at times. Have adjusted temperatures downward by a 2-3 degrees, particularly in the northwestern ILN CWA, where some clearing should work in before morning. Previous discussion > High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest this evening into tonight. A reinforcing push of dry air will move in during the overnight east of the high. Ahead of the weak boundary, clouds build with increasing mid level moisture. A slight chance of rain showers ultimately materializes along and southeast of I-71 late overnight. Forecast lows are in the middle 30s along and northwest of I-71. Warmer lows are forecast southeast of I-71 (upper 30s) due to thicker cloud cover. A Frost Advisory will not be issued for the overnight for two reasons: 1) The Fall Frost/Freeze program has ended for the northern counties where frost is possible tonight 2) Cloud cover and moderated temperatures should limit the frost potential across the south where the Fall Frost/Freeze program is still in effect. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level troughing and surface high pressure will dominate Tuesday and Tuesday night. On Tuesday, northerly winds continue to advect cool air into the Ohio Valley as skies clear while high pressure builds in. Forecast highs are in the upper 40s to near 50. For Tuesday night, high pressure noses overhead leading to calming winds under partially clear skies. Conditions are likely going to be favorable for temperatures to drop off into the upper 20s and lower 30s areawide. Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed across the southern and Scioto Valley counties where the Fall Frost/Freeze program is still in effect. A hard freeze could be possible in some locations if cloud cover remains minimal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A longwave H5 trough remains the primary synoptic feature over the Ohio Valley during the middle of the work week. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect cooler and drier air from Canada into our CWA - offering below normal temperature values. High temperatures are likely to remain below 50 degrees for every location on Wednesday. A broad surface high pressure system centered in the far Midwest region will likely keep conditions dry. Models suggest further amplification of the H5 trough on Thursday as it digs further south. There are still a few ensembles that try to bring some light precipitation into our southeastern CWA Thursday night, but majority of ensembles and deterministic models are now trending dry. With the trend in models, have capped PoPs at 20% Thursday night in our extreme southeast, but majority of counties will remain dry. While there will be shortwave energy that traverses our region at the end of the work week, there does not appear to be enough appreciable moisture for this upper-level energy to work with. Thus, have gone with a drier forecast heading into the weekend. By Saturday, the primary H5 trough propagates eastward and flow becomes more zonal aloft. Throughout the weekend, weak ridging then begins to build in - helping to keep the forecast trending dry, as well as offering a decent warmup. Temperatures are likely to rebound back into the middle to upper 50s for the weekend - putting us closer to seasonal normals. This warming trend continues into the next work week as models continue to show a ridging pattern in place over the eastern CONUS. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds will gradually lower over the next 6-12 hours, perhaps eventually getting into the 4kft-6kft range, but likely remaining above MVFR thresholds. There is also a very small chance of some light rain at the Cincinnati TAF sites between 03Z-09Z, but this chance is too small to include in the forecast. Clouds should generally move out tomorrow morning, with some fair weather cumulus developing again during the afternoon. Winds through the TAF period will generally be 10 knots or less, mainly out of the WNW. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
747 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON NOV 1 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level low just east of James Bay over nw Quebec with the northern Great Lakes under the influence of its deep cyclonic flow. With 850mb temps lowering to - 7C to -8C over Lake Superior and sfc water temp generally around 10C, there has been sufficient instability for wnw flow lake effect pcpn today. Lake effect pcpn has not always been well organized today, likely due to steep low-level lapse rates advecting se, not only over the water but land as well, as noted on the 00z and 12z KINL soundings. With lake induced equilibrium levels up to 15-20kft persisting over the lake and moisture depth of 10-15 kft, pcpn has been briefly moderate/heavy at times. Given the depth of convection, graupel is likely occurring at times closer to Lake Superior where ptype is otherwise predominantly rain. Inland and over higher terrain, ptype changes to predominantly snow. Many inland areas last night saw at least light slushy snow accumulation, but we did get a report of 4 inches of snow at Herman. Forecast will be a tricky one for tonight into Tuesday with respect to snow accumulation and perhaps location of greatest amounts, especially west. As the mid-level low currently just east of James Bay continues to lift northward into northern Quebec tonight, an approaching shortwave from the nw around the periphery of the low and its associated sfc trough are expected to move across the area and could further boost ongoing lake effect pcpn. In addition, the associated sfc trough dropping across Lake Superior will increase and focus low-level convergence. Combined with weak caa as 850 mb temps lower to -9C to -10C, lake effect pcpn should increase in coverage/intensity. Over the west, CAMs indicate increased convergence will initially focus moderate to possibly heavy LES bands into central/northern Ontonagon, southern Houghton and Baraga counties this evening, but then with the arrival of the shortwave and assoc sfc trough overnight, the better focus/convergence for the heavier bands could shift into southern Ontonagon and Gogebic counties. Overall shifting of bands and shorter fetch in wnw-nw flow may limit snow amounts in the west as noted on CAMs qpf, but still would expect 3 to locally 6 inches of snow tonight through Tue morning for Gogebic, Ontonagon, southern Houghton and Baraga counties where I have posted a Winter Weather Advisory. Greatest snow amounts will be over the higher terrain while right along the Lake Superior shore amounts will probably closer to an inch or two. Models soundings show some subsidence/drying and lowering of inversion heights in the afternoon behind the shortwave/mid-level trough axis so would expect LES to taper off by then. Over the east, longest fetch over Lake Superior and deep instability with ridiculous lake equilibrium levels approaching 20 kft will contribute to even stronger convection and LES bands than the western zones. Many of the CAMs pick up on pre- conditioning off Lake Nipigon, especially later tonight in the wake of the shortwave and sfc trough passage which shifts winds more northwest. Expect banding to become more organized tonight, especially late this evening with the arrival of the sfc trough. Model soundings and overviews indicate good crosshair signature by late this evening with good model omega/upward motion intersecting best dendritic snow growth so in this 03-09Z period is when I expect the heaviest snow to occur. Would not be surprised to see snow accums exceeding 1"/hr within the more intense bands. CAMs hit the area from Munising to Shingleton for heaviest qpf through the period with liquid amounts around or exceeding an inch. For snow accumulation have amounts ranging from 3 to locally 8 inches with the highest totals from Wetmore to Shingleton and Seney and from McMillan to Pine Stump Jct. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Alger, northern Schoolcraft and Luce counties through 18z Tue. Again, the soundings indicate drying and subsidence beginning to take hold in the afternoon which should begin to taper off snow by mid-late afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s interior west to upper 20 to lower 30s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 30s near Lake Superior to the lower 40s over the southeast. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 411 PM EDT MON NOV 1 2021 The last shortwave moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level trough finally shifts east away from the area. There still looks to be support with this wave for lake effect showers over the eastern half of Lake Superior. The models are not as strong with the shortwave as previous runs but we still will see lake induced inversion heights of 8 to 10 kft along with increased convergence over the east and 850mb temps of around -9C. Plenty of instability will still be available for moderate to occasionally heavy showers and it looks like the band will back westward a little bit, focused into the Munising area for Tuesday night. It is looking like mainly all snow during the overnight hours gradually mixing with rain Wednesday afternoon. This event doesn`t appear to be as robust as the one tonight and currently forecasting a few inches of snow accumulation away from the immediate lakeshore in Alger county. Lake effect shower activity will probably hang on into Wednesday night but then shift east and diminish as westerly flow and warm air advection begins to take over. After Wednesday upper level ridging begins to build into the area with a gradually moderation in temperatures, with highs up into the lower 50s for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 746 PM EDT MON NOV 1 2021 Conditions at IWD/CMX/SAW will likely fluctuate btwn higher-end MVFR and VFR throughout this fcst period. With lake-effect shsn continuing in the WNW wind snow belts this evening into tomorrow, there will be potential for transient bands of IFR vsbys and low-end MVFR cigs, mainly at IWD and CMX. WNW wind lake-effect does not favor SAW, but a few bands may be able to persist long enough inland to impact the terminal. WNW winds downslope slightly into SAW, which will lead to more VFR than MVFR during this TAF period. Winds will still be gusty during this TAF period, but not quite as gusty as the last day or so. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON NOV 1 2021 Chilly air mass and relatively tight pres gradient btwn high pres building over the Plains and deep low pressure over Quebec will result in continued nw winds of 20-30kt across Lake Superior into tonight. Winds will then very slowly diminish from w to e on Tue, falling off to under 20kt across the lake for Tue night and remaining under 20kt for Wed. Winds will increase a bit on Thu as pres gradient tightens slightly btwn high pres ridging to the s and a low pres trof moving across northern Ontario. Gusts to 20-25kt will be possible. Winds should fall back to under 20kt on Fri. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Tuesday for MIZ002-004-006-007-009-084-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...JAW MARINE...Voss