Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/17/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1035 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west overnight then cross
the area early Sunday morning. An upper level low will remain
over the region Monday into Tuesday, then move into the
Maritimes Wednesday. High pressure builds in by Thursday
morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1033 PM Update: Rain is filling in w/the help of the llvl jet
of 40+ kts at about 1500 ft. Sfc analysis showed low pres
developing on the frontal boundary over NH. As this feature
lifts nne overnight, showers will continue to overspread the
region. The regional radar loop showed hints of a line of
enhanced rain and possibly some tstms across swrn Maine. This
line is shown by the HRRR and the 18Z NAMNEST to lift ne
overnight moving across the region. After a further look at
sounding data showing some elevated CAPE near 400+ joules into
NE Aroostook County, and the llvl jet, decided to add the
mention of tstms in that region. The strong llvl jet and PWs of
1.4+ inches should be enough to aid in some gusty winds 35+ mph
at the sfc w/heavy rainfall. Modified rainfall a bit to bring
higher amounts further n adding in earlier reports.
Previous Discussion...
Intensifying sfc low just to the north of Montreal with a cold
front draped into NY State and pushing east this afternoon
toward the region. Warm front is lifting toward Baxter SP as of
19z with convection developing to the north of front and wl be
lifting thru nrn and ern areas this evening. South of the front
wl likely see low clouds, fog and possibly drizzle but areas to
the north will see rain become more widespread toward evening
along with isolated thunderstorms. Hv kept temps warming to the
north of the warm front this afternoon with near steady temps to
the south.
Fairly potent line of storms extends fm nrn VT down into the mid-
Atlantic. Watching the line move into the Champlain Vly with wind
gusts between 35-40 kts as it moved through. Instability will wane
as the line moves east tonight and bcm more elevated. Plenty of
shear is available for organized storms as the front crosses the
area. LLJ increases ahead of the front after 00z this evening. Front
wl enter CWA after 03z and cross the region before exiting around
12z. As it crosses, 0-6km bulk shear values wl be extremely
impressive with 50-60kts out ahead of the main line so any storm
that is able to develop wl have the potential to bring locally gusty
winds to the sfc. Especially with 925-850mb winds on the order of 40-
50kts surging in ahead of the cold front. Cannot rule out an
isolated strong storm during the overnight but without surface-based
storms expected confidence in this scenario is low.
Any storms that can mix down the wind, wl likely de-leaf trees in
the process, and with locally heavy rainfall possible in a very
humid environment with PW values approaching 1.5 inches, this may
lead to ponding of water on roadways due to storm drains becoming
clogged by leaf litter.
Cold front exits into NB by morning with upr lvl trof hanging out to
the north of the area into the middle of the week. This wl likely
lead to isolated to scattered showers acrs northern area in the
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sun night expect a deep slightly negative 500mb trough over New
England. At the surface the departing cold front over New
Brunswick will be ushering in colder air on a northwest flow.
This classic cold air advection will bring 850mb temps to around
0C and given the upper level energy we will see showers along
and northwest of the Longfellow Mtns. Elsewhere, expect mainly
dry conditions with a light breeze but not expecting strong
mixing given the weakening pressure gradient and stable air
mass. Temperatures across the Downeast coast and along
I-95/Route 1 fall back into the low 40s by morning. Areas west
of Route 11 and north of the Golden Road will see morning lows
in the upper 30s with it falling to freezing on the summit of
Mt. Katahdin. Any shower activity should remain rain but on
Katahdin snow showers are possible as 850mb temps fall to around
0C. On Monday it doesn`t look promising for sunshine across the
northern 2/3rd of the FA with the upper level trough overhead,
1000mb-500mb RH values 80-90% and cold air aloft. This time of
year these are the ingredients for stratocu and mostly cloudy
days. A NW wind of 10-15mph will result in downsloping in
Downeast areas with the best chance of some drying resulting in
sunny breaks. Highs will varying depending on how much sunshine
you get, mid to upper 50s from Bangor to the coast and upper 40s
to low 50s across the north. Given the upper level energy
cannot rule out some scattered showers during the day with the
best bet across the northern half of the FA.
Mon night could we be seeing our first snow showers across the
area? It is possible especially in the North Woods from
Moosehead northward. Axis of the 500mb trough will push into New
Brunswick putting much of us on the southwest side with vort
maxes zipping through the flow. 850mb temps falling into the -3C
to -5C range and low-mid level moisture with falling freezing
levels. Isolated to scattered showers will have the chance to
mix with some wet snowflakes and perhaps as surface temps fall
to 32-35F we may see a full switch to mainly snowflakes. The
best chances of this will be in far northern Somerset, northern
Piscataquis and western Aroostook counties but not expecting any
accumulations given the warm ground temps. Temperatures will
start out Tuesday in the low to mid 30s across the North Woods
so hunters may experience some snowflakes and cool start to the
day. Elsewhere, mainly mid to upper 30s across the northern half
of the CWA with low 40s around Bangor to the coast. During the
day 500mb upper level low will be up over the Gaspe Peninsula
and we remain under an unsettled air mass with northwest flow
aloft down to the surface. Another day with 1000-500mb RH values
75%+ so expecting a ton of clouds about with chance of rain
showers thanks to areas of vorticity maxes in the flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tue Night expect the upper level low to slowly drift out over
the Maritimes but a shortwave will pivot around and keep a
slight chance of showers going across the area into Wed. A ton
of moisture with cool air aloft will mean expect clouds to
continue with just some breaks of sunshine. Lows in the upper
30s to low 40s with highs in the low to upper 50s from north to
south. 12z global ops runs suggesting a brief 500mb ridging
works in for most of Thurs. Thurs night into Fri looks to be
unsettled with a large trough moving in over New England from
Quebec. Majority of the guidance shows this but there is
significant differences in strength, timing and how many
shortwaves pivot through the flow. Didn`t want to get fancy in
the D6-D7 timeframe so went with 50% chance POPs for stratiform
rain. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s from north to south with
highs in the 50s north with low 60s south. After this system
clears into Saturday expect the general troughing to remain
based on the trends. So another stratocu day with chance of
showers but with cooler temperatures in the morning we may see
some more rain/snow showers mixed.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR will persist through tonight in low cigs,
fog and potentially heavy rainfall. LLWS will be present at all
terminals through 10z. Restrictions improve toward 12z with most
sites, with the exception of KFVE, seeing MVFR cigs after 15z.
SHORT TERM: Mon...Generally MVFR cigs with potentially IFR cigs
in the AM. Chance of showers all day from BGR northward. NW
winds 5-15kts.
Tue...Generally MVFR cigs with potentially IFR cigs in the AM.
Chance of showers all day from BGR northward. NW winds 5-15kts.
Wed...VFR/MVFR cigs. Slight chance of showers across northern
sites. NW winds 5-15kts.
Thu...VFR/MVFR cigs. S winds 5-10kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA continues tonight with winds diminishing before
daybreak with seas remaining elevated into the morning hours of
Sunday.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA through Mon evening. NW
wind gusts to 20kts possible with seas generally 1-3 feet. Mon
night seas build to between 2 and 4 feet across the outer
waters. During the day NW wind gusts may approach SCA levels
around 25kts. Seas will be generally around 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
231 PM PDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring rain and cooler temperatures
tomorrow, followed by a more showery regime tomorrow evening.
Another front will generate more precipitation Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning. Additional periods of precipitation are
forecast for the latter portion of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to shift to the east today
as a shortwave trough and associated cold front approaches the
West Coast. Rain will spread to the southeast starting on the Del
Norte Coast around mid to late morning tomorrow. A third of an
inch to around an inch will be possible for the northern portion
of the forecast area. Sadly, southern Mendocino and Lake counties
will likely only received a few hundredths of an inch. Big story
with this system is going to be the drastic decrease in interior
temperatures and lowering snow levels. Afternoon highs will likely
fall by 15 to 25 degrees in most spots, with highs in the highest
elevations topping out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Snow levels
will also plummet tomorrow evening with this system, with some
very light accumulation possible down to 4,000 feet. Though, this
will likely only be a dusting. Elevations around 5,000 feet or so
can expect an inch, and possibly up to 2 inches later tomorrow.
Precipitation will quickly taper off early Monday morning and give
way to the aforementioned much cooler weather and dry weather. In
addition, as the shortwave trough approaches tomorrow,
instability is forecast to increase over the northern waters and
North Coast. Some isolated thunder will be possible over the
northern waters, but do not think there will be enough instability
for any thunder at the coast. Though, the threat is not zero!
Otherwise, lingering moisture and low clouds in most interior
valleys should limit the overall frost/freeze threat overnight on
Monday.
Attention then turns to midweek as another cold front is forecast
to impact Northwest California later on Tuesday. Exact timing and
forecast details are a little uncertain, but it does look like
the southern portion of the area could receive a good wetting rain
with this front. Stay tuned! Details are murky, but guidance does
suggest another series of fronts will be possible late in the
upcoming week and as we head into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Other than some patchy, rather shallow radiational fog
around the coastal plain early this morning, skies have been mostly
clear. Once again, some haze was reported along the North Coast with
visibilities briefly dropping below 3 miles. Coastal stratus has
thus far not materialized today as some of the higher resolution
models were suggesting. Still feel like there may be an area of low
clouds and/or fog that forms N of Cape Mendocino as low-level dew
points are progged to increase toward the sea surface temperature
late this afternoon and this evening. Any clouds and fog that do
form may advect toward or over the coastline. However, winds are
expected to turn southerly and increase later tonight, with gusts up
to 15 knots possible by sunrise. This will likely bring some
downslope flow to the coastal plain, lifting any ceilings that
develop and improving fog-related visibility reductions.
Additionally, the marine layer is forecast to deepen and low-level
inversion weaken, which should act against more persistent low
clouds or fog. Frontal rain is expected to make it to the North
Coast by late Sunday morning.
Coastal stratus may develop S of Cape Mendocino tonight as well,
although uncertainty is higher. As the marine layer deepens, some of
these clouds may make it into portions of the Russian River Valley
by morning, but the HRRR model indicates that this will mainly occur
S of Mendocino County with little if any cloudiness making it N to
KUKI. Winds will be light. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...Southerly winds will be on the increase ahead of a cold
front tonight, and will become gusty by early Sunday morning. Later
on Sunday, winds will veer to the NW. Winds and seas look like they
will remain mostly below advisory criteria with the front. However,
isolated near-advisory southerlies will be possible ahead of the
front on Sunday, and gusty NW winds will be lurking just outside of
the outer waters. Thereafter, another period of light winds is
expected on Monday, followed by possible gale force southerlies
Tuesday into Wednesday. Mid-period NW swells will continue into
early next week, with more westerly mid-period swells later in the
coming week. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with skies FEW-
SCT250. Winds will be generally out of the east/northeast (more
northerly at KTCS) at 5-10 kts through the remainder of the
evening before gradually weakening between 03-06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...205 PM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally warm and dry conditions through the upcoming week with
just a few isolated showers possible late in the week. There will
be a couple breezy days Monday and Tuesday. Expect temperatures to
be in the 70s again for Sunday and warm into the mid 70s to mid
80s for the remainder of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...
Upper-level ridge is in place with its NW-SE oriented axis running
roughly right through the middle of the CWA. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure covers the Southern Plains with its
influence extending into Southern NM. This is keeping a somewhat
tight pressure gradient across the CWA, especially for areas toward
the AZ border. Winds will remain breezy through the afternoon, but
the gradient will gradually relax. This will cause winds to relax
for tonight and as we go into Sunday. Trajectories are southerly and
this is allowing a return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. However,
meaningful moisture is lacking as well as any triggering mechanism
for precip. The short-term forecast is dry, and only a modest
increase in cloud coverage is expected. The 12z HRRR does trigger
some thunderstorms for the CWA for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Only explanation I can derive is there is an elevated cu field over
AZ indicating some upper-level lift, and that combined with the
remnants of a frontal boundary over our CWA could be what the HRRR
is seeing. This is noted, but ignored for now as an outlier. We`ll
see if this continues in the 18z and 00z runs, etc. Temperatures
will warm for tomorrow as well back closer to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Semi-active upper level flow pattern across the CONUS through the
upcoming week. Upper low will be moving through the northern Great
Basin Monday and be into the Northern Plains by 00Z Wed. Flow
across the CWA will generally remain west-southwest with breezy
conditions expected during this period. No moisture push, so dry
conditions will continue. Temperatures will start out by warming
up for Monday into the lower to mid 80s, but as the trough axis
passes, temperatures will cool a few degrees for Tuesday.
For Wednesday through Saturday, there will be a mean ridge sitting
over the area which will keep temperatures about 3-5 degrees above
normal. There is a little disagreement among models as to the
moisture return for the end of the week. They all agree that by
Thu surface flow will turn more east to southeast and flow around
H70 turns southerly which would both support some modest moisture
to move into the area. EC only puts out some light showers over
far SE CWA Thu while the GFS has some spotty precip Thu and Sat. A
few ensembles of the GFS do support precip chances further west
Thu-Sat as well as Canadian. While this does look like a definite
possibility, think impacts will be very little for what does
happen. Mainly kept pops under 10 except the Sacramento Mts
Saturday when it looks like best push of moisture may occur and
there will be a trough entering the west coast at the same time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire concerns expected for the next several days. Min
RH values will drop into the lower 20s for Sunday thanks to some
moisture gains. Winds will top out around 15 MPH with a few higher
gusts. Vent rates will be poor to fair. Little change is expected
for the next several days though min RH values will fall into the
mid to upper 20s starting Monday. Vent rates will also improve for
Monday and Tuesday to very good to excellent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 53 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 48 73 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 45 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 39 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 32 57 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 43 75 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 37 70 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 43 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 50 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 60 80 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 39 77 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 54 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 52 73 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 54 82 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 48 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 49 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 36 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 40 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 48 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 48 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 33 69 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 33 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 30 65 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 26 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 39 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 40 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 71 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 35 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 37 79 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 26 74 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 41 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 51 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 49 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 46 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 53 76 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/38
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1146 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will will cross through the area this
evening into Sunday morning bringing periods of rain, gusty
winds, and a few rumbles of thunder. Cooler conditions will then
arrive for the beginning of next week with daytime showers
under northwest flow. High pressure and gradually moderating
temperatures are then expected for the middle of the week before
another disturbance arrives by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1150 PM Update... Just a quick rework of temperature and wind
trends through tonight. Overall the forecast is well on track
with a broken line of lightning-less convection reaching the
Gulf of Maine, and gusts ramping up to 25-30 kts along the
immediate Midcoast.
945 PM Update... Cold front continues to move east through NH
and will be approaching western ME within the next few hours.
Radar is showing widespread showers across NH and this activity
will continue to drift east into ME over the next several
hours.Some adjustments to PoPs were made to better align with
radar trends as well as near- term high resolution guidance such
as the HRRR and HREF. Decided to remove thunder across most
areas but kept it across portions of the Mid-Coast where some
uptick in the shower activity is anticipated later tonight. In
addition, winds were also adjusted to better align with surface
observations. Other than some very minor tweaks to temperatures
and dewpoints the rest of the forecast remains on track.
Previously...
As of 615 PM... Have updated the PoP/Wx forecast to better
align with observed trends as a weakening, broken line of heavy
showers finally crosses the Connecticut River this evening.
Primary changes were to knock back thunder chances by about a
category, eliminating thunder for much of the area. Models do
suggest a coastal amplification coinciding with the front
reaching the eastern Mass coast... so have left a slight chance
of thunder in for the Midcoast/Capitol region of Maine. It is
likely that heavier rainfall with this enhancement mixes down a
greater component of the low- level jet over the Midcoast too...
although the thermodynamic boundary of the marine layer still
limits this threat. Nonetheless did adjust wind gusts up a bit,
to the 30-35 mph range there.
As far as trends with the strength of the incoming line of
convection... radar and storm reports from upstream indicate the
northern portion of this line entering central and northern NH
is very well on the downward trend with diminishing threat.
Further south over western Mass however there is a more
rigorous area of convection that may keep its act together as it
approaches southwest New Hampshire. Convective threat therefore
shifts to this component and the line of convection extended
south from there.
Previously...
At 3pm a cold front is crossing the Champlain valley and will
move across New Hampshire and western Maine this evening. Ahead
of the front, southerly flow has pushed temperatures into the
70s across the southern portion of the region, with dewpoints
into the lower to mid 60s. This summer like airmass extends
through much of NH where partial sunshine has broken out. Across
Maine the 60s dewpoints push as far north and east as Bangor
while the south flow has kept onshore flow and low clouds
keeping temperatures in the 60s as well.
It will be a race against the setting sun this afternoon to see
how far the cold front can advance before it looses the warmth
and instability to support surface based convection. For the
moment, mesoanalysis would support thunder extending into
western New Hampshire in early evening. Morning sounding from
KGYX showed relatively steep lapse rates just below the freezing
mark so some small hail is possible. Gusty winds remain the
largest threat, with forecast soundings showing as much as 40-50 kts
of wind just off the surface. The significant shear continues
to support the potential for embedded QLCS tornadoes, and will
need to be vigilant for any quick spin ups as it crosses the CT
river.
Expect the marine layer to take hold to the east, with
convection becoming elevated later in the night as the front
rolls through Maine. Have maintained a mention of thunder
through midnight but expect the severe threat to rapidly
decrease in the few hours after sunset. With the very humid
airmass have also kept patchy fog in the area for most of the
night.
With the low level flow oriented mostly parallel to the front,
there is some chance for training precipitation however the
forward progress of the front makes for less of a concern for
any flooding. Have used the RFC forecast for QPF, with a
generalized widespread 0.5-1", however expect there will be
several small areas which may see up to 2-3" if the heaviest
cells end up in the same place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the front crossing out the region early Sunday morning,
westerly flow will develop. This will bring a steadily drying
airmass throughout the day. Clearing skies will allow
temperatures to climb into the mid 60s, more seasonable.
Overnight the dewpoints in the 40s will keep temperatures from
dropping too far and a bit of patchy fog is possible in the
river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The inevitable pattern change that we have been awaiting will
arrive on Monday with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s, except lower 50s in the mountains. These temperatures
remain nearly at or slightly above normal temperatures for this
time of the year.
This slightly cooler temperatures will be generated by an upper
level low pressure system over northern New England. A cyclonic
flow and cold pool aloft will allow for Cu to build during the
day and scattered showers to develop in an area of steep low
level lapse rates and upslope west to northwesterly flow across
the mountains. Downsloping conditions may prevent any
precipitation from reaching the coastline.
Monday night will be a night with ample mixing and considerable
in the clouds across the northern 2/3 portions of the forecast
area. Despite this, expect temperatures to fall into the upper
30s in these areas by Tuesday morning.
This upper level low will be slow to move out of the region on
Tuesday, bringing a repeat process to the region with plenty of
clouds. H8 temperatures around -4C will yield temperatures in
the 40s across the northern mountains and 50s in the south. As
the mid and upper level low shift to the east and winds align,
expect westerly winds to become quite gusty during the afternoon.
12Z operational guidance and ensemble solutions remain in
relatively good agreement gradually raising heights across the
Northeast on Wednesday. This will allow for drier conditions
along with warmer temperatures. This will continue into Thursday
as warm air continues to filter into the region and low pressure
remains over southern Canada.
By Friday and into early next weekend, a strong cold front will
cross the region with its associated trough aloft. H8
temperatures will be falling with widespread readings near -8C
by Saturday night. However, there are still significant
variability amongst the ensemble solutions in terms of daily
high and low temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term... Scattered cumulus across New Hampshire has the
entire state holing in VFR for the moment. Meanwhile, in Maine
the midcoast can`t seem to loose the low clouds and IFR to LIFR
is expected to hold through tomorrow morning. A cold front will
cross the region this evening. With a very strong low level
jet,some LLWS is possible although for the most part those winds
are mixing down enough to keep mention of it out of the TAFs.
Expect a return to IFR across all of coastal Maine overnight,
with some thunder possible as the front moves through. Winds
will finally turn west with clearing skies and VFR returning for
the day on Sunday.
Long Term...A westerly flow will prevail through the beginning
of next week and will be gusty at times, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours. VFR conditions will prevail
across most terminals but scattered SHRA will result in
MVFR/brief IFR conditions at times, especially across northern
terminals such as KHIE Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Strong southerly flow ahead of a cold front will
keep gusts to 30kts in the waters this evening and a SCA remains
in effect. Behind the front winds will turn westerly decreasing
to below 25kts by morning, and holding light west to
northwesterly through Sunday.
Long Term...South winds becoming west gusting up to 25 to 30
kts tonight into Monday. West to northwest winds on Monday
night through Tuesday night will continue to gust to near 25 kt.
Winds and seas will then diminish by Thursday as high pressure
gradually builds over the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Casey/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
803 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.UPDATE...
A few showers developed over Levy county this afternoon but those
have since waned with the loss of heating. There are a few showers
associated with the cold front north of Dixie county. The HRRR is
doing a good job with the structure and location, so primarily
used it for the update.
The HRRR is showing an increase in coverage with time, and
actually has pretty good coverage over and offshore Levy county
before midnight. Shortly after that time the line begins to break
up again as it continues its trek south, reaching the Tampa Bay
area a few hours or so after midnight. The front and associated
showers will be slowing down as it moves through Charlotte and Lee
counties Sunday morning, but most of the shower activity over land
will have diminished with some showers continuing over the
adjacent Gulf waters. It could be mid-morning before the front
finally clears Lee county.
The main update to the forecast was to increase rain chances some
over the Nature Coast tonight. Otherwise the forecast is similar
to the previous one.
&&
.AVIATION...
Expecting mainly VFR conditions while the front moves through
tonight and early Sunday. A few showers could impact TPA, PIE, and
SRQ overnight, then gradual clearing will occur on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Cooler air advecting over the still very warm waters of the Gulf
will result in steep lapse rates and excellent mixing down of
stronger winds. 20 to even 25 knot winds are expected over the
northern two-thirds of the waters late tonight into the first half
of Sunday. Winds should subside some by Sunday afternoon, but
enhanced easterly flow will remain in place for the next several
days with easterly surges likely each night.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 70 85 64 85 / 20 0 0 0
FMY 74 89 67 88 / 10 10 0 10
GIF 69 85 62 85 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 71 85 63 85 / 20 0 0 0
BKV 62 82 55 83 / 30 0 0 0
SPG 72 83 68 84 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon
EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...29/Delerme