Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
825 PM MDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .UPDATE... Latest HRRR and RAP guidance indicating some fog potential overnight in far SE Montana, and this is backed up by Baker reporting light fog since 7:30 PM, so patchy fog has been added to the forecast out there until 6 AM. No other changes to the forecast. Vertz && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday night... Upper level low will move eastward into the Dakotas tonight and cause any remaining shower activity to diminish. Through this evening, snow showers are expected over the Bighorn Mountains above 8700 feet (e.g. near Granite Pass) and isolated thunderstorms are possible over far southeast MT. Behind this upper low, an upper level ridge will move into the region overnight into Sunday and bring dry conditions under mostly clear skies. The clearing skies could facilitate the development of patchy fog mainly east of Billings overnight. Low-level winds look to increase enough later tonight that any fog could be scoured out by sunrise. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s. Sunday night, an upper trough will dig southward over the interior West and bring large-scale ascent and forcing for some banded precipitation over south central MT and northwest-north central WY. Look for precipitation to develop as rain initially over the lower elevations, including the western foothills, Sunday evening. Late Sunday night, cooling from the rising air looks to change rain over to wet snow over the western foothills. Through Sunday night, conditions will likely be warm enough to limit snow accumulation to a few 0.1 inch in the foothills. In contrast, the mountains especially above 5000-7000 feet should receive 1 to 3 inches of snow Sunday night. Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the 30s and 40s, coolest in the foothills and warmest over southeast MT east of Billings. Temperatures in the mountainous areas will drop to the 20s. RMS Monday through Saturday... Challenging forecast given time of year, ground temps, strength of system and no cold air advecting into the area. High amplitude trough will dig over the Western U.S. on Monday with a strong jet on the back side of the trough. Area will be in a post-frontal environment with 850 mb temps dropping to around 0 degs C during the day. Moisture will overspread the region from W to E and rain will mix with snow in the central and western zones. Western mountains/foothills will pick up decent snow accumulations with light accumulations in adjacent lower elevations. Expect several inches of snow in the NE Bighorns and Pryors as well. NBM had a 60% chance of at least 6 in. of snow for the Bighorns and foothills. Placed above areas in a Winter Storm Watch beginning Sunday night. By 00Z Tue., placed Stillwater, Carbon and Yellowstone in a Watch as well. By Tuesday, a large upper low will be over the western portion of the four-corners region. Clusters had .75-1 inch of 24 hr QPF along the MT/north central WY border by 00Z Wednesday. Also on Tue., the SOT from the EC EFI showed a 2 for snowfall in this area with a small area of 5 in WY. NBM had a 50 percent chance of at least 6 in of snow from Bighorn County W. 850 mb temps were below zero with highs only in the 30s and 40s. Trowal moves W into MT supporting high PoPs over the central and E zones, with rain in the E, a mix in the central zones and snow W. Added Big Horn County and Sheridan Foothills to the Watch Mon. night. On Wed., clusters had the low ejecting into NE WY/W SD, NW NE. Precipitation will gradually taper off from W to E on Wed. A chance of rain or a mix will linger over the E Wed. night. Ended the Watch for all zones 00Z Thu. Total QPF on the GEFS mean was 1.5-2.5 inches for the system. NAEFS, EC Situational Awareness Table and SREF supported the high QPF. Northern tier will get lesser totals. Area was under troughing on Thursday with mostly dry conditions, followed by upper ridging for the rest of the period with a warming trend. Arthur && .AVIATION... Clouds will decrease the rest of the night. Most locations will experience VFR conditions, but local fog is expected over southeast Montana that could briefly lower conditions to MVFR-IFR. Beartooth/Absaroka/Pryor/Bighorn Mountains will be obscured. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 040/066 037/043 032/036 029/041 030/046 029/049 032/054 00/U 88/O 99/O 74/O 21/B 00/U 00/U LVM 034/062 030/041 025/038 022/043 024/044 022/050 026/057 01/N 99/O 97/S 32/S 32/S 00/U 00/U HDN 036/067 036/046 031/038 029/041 028/048 026/051 026/057 00/U 67/R 99/R 85/O 31/B 00/U 00/U MLS 039/063 041/049 035/044 033/042 032/048 030/053 031/057 00/U 14/R 79/R 87/R 51/N 00/U 00/U 4BQ 041/062 040/050 035/044 033/040 030/044 029/049 029/054 50/U 13/R 79/R 98/R 31/N 00/U 00/U BHK 038/061 038/052 036/048 035/043 031/047 029/052 030/058 40/U 01/B 47/R 98/R 62/R 00/U 00/U SHR 034/064 033/047 027/038 026/042 023/046 021/049 024/056 10/U 58/R ++/O 96/O 31/B 10/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONES 34-139-170-173-235. Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONES 40-56-64>66-141. Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONES 57-138-169. Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday evening through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONES 67-68. Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONE 171. WY...Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONE 199. Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONE 198. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 443 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 An active pattern will occur through next week with several areas of low pressure bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Northland. Fog will again be a concern tonight, mainly around Lake Superior. Much of the Northland has seen little in the way of rainfall today but that will change overnight. As of this afternoon, there were scattered thunderstorms over far northeast Minnesota with showers over far northwest areas. An upper low will deepen a surface low tonight with the low moving to near the North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota border by 12Z Sunday. Forcing will be increasing quite a bit overnight due in part to strong divergence in the left front quadrant of an upper jet, a strengthening low level jet with the RAP forecasting 850MB south/southeast winds to 50 knots later this evening, and continued warm air advection. Showers and storms will increase in both coverage and strength overnight with MLCAPE values per the RAP increasing to 500-1400 J/KG and adequate deep layer shear as well as low level shear due to the low level jet. A few severe storms will be possible tonight. The CAMs seem to have a decent handle on storm mode indicating a line of storms forming and this is consistent with strong forcing. Damaging wind will be a threat but with mid-level lapse rates rising to 7-7.5 C/KM, large hail will also be possible. The best chance for strong storms will be late evening into the early morning hours. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rain will also be possible with several rounds of storms moving through and PWAT values between the 97th and 99th percentiles for this time of year. Strong storms may be ongoing Sunday morning but they may be far enough removed from the better instability and be elevated enough to lower the severe risk compared to earlier in the period. There will likely be somewhat of a break in shower/storm coverage later Sunday morning but the nearly vertically stacked low will be over northern Minnesota by Sunday evening. More showers/storms will develop in the afternoon under cooler temperatures aloft. A few of these may become severe again in the afternoon. Lapse rates are most favorable over the eastern half of the Northland but freezing levels will be dropping so large hail will be a threat as will be some damaging wind gusts. The showers/storms will diminish or end from south to north Sunday night as the low moves into Ontario. Areas of fog will occur tonight, especially around Lake Superior and we issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the North Shore into the Twin Ports area through 10 AM Sunday morning. Yet another area of low pressure will be on the heels of the first later Monday into Tuesday bring another round of showers to the region, with chances highest over eastern portions of the Northland. Temperatures will remain at or above normal into Wednesday. The models remain in decent agreement with a third low pressure system next Wednesday into Thursday. This system will be similar in strength and track to the one tonight/Sunday. Widespread rain will be possible with the low but instability is lacking for widespread thunderstorm chances. Colder temperatures will wrap behind this low lowering highs to below normal by late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Went with a pessimistic forecast given all the low level moisture. TAFs may be VFR to begin with but there is a lot of potential for IFR or lower, so hanging onto the lower flight categories and will ammend up if necessary, but want to give it several hours to play out. A line of storms will cross overnight bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and large hail to portions of the forecast area. LLWS will be present this evening as a strong low spins to our west bringing in strong flow. More storms follow Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 There are several hazards in the short term including dense fog, building waves and increasing wind, and strong thunderstorms. Fog will remain over portions of Lake Superior and it will be dense in spots. The most likely area for visibilities at or below a mile will be along the North Shore into the Twin Ports area. We have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for this area through noon Sunday. A few thunderstorms will occur late this afternoon into Sunday evening. Although the risk isn`t high, a few strong storms will be possible which will produce gusty winds in excess of 40 knots, hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. The best chance for strong storms will be late tonight into Sunday evening. A strong area of low pressure will move toward the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota border by 7 AM CDT Sunday then it will move north during the day and into Ontario Sunday night. Easterly wind will increase tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Waves will build, especially along portions of the North Shore and we issued a Small Craft Advisory from Grand Portage to Silver Bay late tonight into late Sunday afternoon. It`s possible this may need to be expanded further south. As the low moves north of Lake Superior, winds will veer to southwest Sunday night and may become strong enough to produce hazardous conditions for small craft, most likely along the South Shore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 56 66 49 64 / 90 80 50 10 INL 56 66 51 64 / 80 90 70 30 BRD 57 65 47 65 / 100 70 40 10 HYR 58 72 47 65 / 70 50 30 20 ASX 57 75 49 68 / 80 60 50 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ001. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ020-021-037. LS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for LSZ140>145. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday/ It`s 6:53 p.m. and Texas remains within deep southerly flow as surface cyclogenesis takes place across the Great Plains. 21Z surface analysis reveals a 999 mb low centered near Great Bend, KS. An occluded front extends north of this low towards an occluding surface low over southeast SD. A dryline extends southwest from the KS surface low across the OK/TX panhandles and into eastern NM with the main cold front further to the northwest across southwest KS and southeast CO. In the upper levels, GOES-E water vapor channel imagery and earlier 500 mb analysis show a deepening trough across the Rocky Mountains with strong height falls noted to the east of the trough axis. The increasingly cyclonically curved flow and large-scale height falls will enhance surface cyclogenesis/pressure falls across the Great Plains through the next 24-36 hours. Model guidance is in strong agreement that another surface low will develop over eastern NM by 12Z Sun and track northeast, reaching southwest OK by 00Z Mon. A cold front/warm front/dryline triple point will become established near this surface low over the Sooner State prior to this time. The warm sector to the southeast of the surface low will be strongly capped initially as an EML overspreads the region. In addition, gusty south winds can be expected with a few wind gusts to around 30 MPH likely during the afternoon hours. While this will be a little short of wind advisory criteria, these gusty winds will certainly be felt on any open bodies of water or east-to-west oriented highways. HRRR and 3km NAM guidance as well as the multi-member HREF are in strong agreement that convection will erupt near and to the southwest of this triple point by this time. This convection will back-build to the southwest down the dryline, reaching western portions of North TX just after 00Z Mon (1900 CDT Sun evening), and approaching the I-35 corridor by 02-05Z (2100-2400 CDT). Forecast soundings ahead of the convection within the warm sector show strongly curved low-level hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. The strongly unstable environment and robust low- level and deep-layer wind shear exceeding 60 KT will support supercell thunderstorms prior to thunderstorms growing upscale into a QLCS, as convection tracks eastward across North TX and eventually into Central/East TX. The greatest tornado threat will likely be to the north of the Red River where low-level flow will be most backed near the triple point, but some tornado threat will likely exist into parts of North TX as well. As thunderstorms grow upscale into a QLCS, the severe weather threat will transition towards a damaging wind threat, though a lower end tornado threat may persist even after midnight, particularly near any bowing segments within the line. Godwin && .LONG TERM... /Issued 419 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021/ /Sunday evening and Beyond/ Bottom line...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this upcoming week starting Sunday evening through Friday. Some strong to severe storms are possible Sunday evening and overnight across portions of North and Central TX. A brief break from the rain is expected on Monday before we see rain chances increasing again Tuesday-Friday as we stay under an unsettled weather pattern aloft. The good news is that next weekend looks pretty nice with below normal temperatures! Sunday late afternoon and evening...A negatively tilted shortwave trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains while a surface low pressure, dryline, and cold front deepen across southwestern OK and western North TX. Most guidance agrees that the initial storm development will occur to our west near a dryline late Sunday afternoon or early evening (between 5-8pm). Parameter space continues to support isolated to scattered supercells through the evening before they merge into a line as they move east/southeastward across North and Central TX Sunday night. These few initial discrete cells will have the potential to become severe posing a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will highly depend on how long the convection can remain discrete. At this time, most CAMs agree that the convective mode will transition more into a line mode as it moves across North and Central TX Sunday night. As storms evolve into a line/cluster, the QLCS severe wind threat may increase. This also means that the threat for a few QLCS tornadoes can`t be ruled out. One important feature about QLCS evolution is the orientation of the line to the 500 mb flow. In this case, it looks like the line of storms will be more parallel to the southwest flow which may reduce the severe weather threat in some degree. However, we will have to watch for any surges or bows within the line that could tilt more north/south or northwest/southeast which will increase the tornado and/or damaging wind potential. These mesoscale details will be continue to be refined as new data becomes available. In terms of timing, the forecast remains fairly similar that the line of storms is expected to cross the I-35 corridor around midnight and continue to the east through the overnight hours. Most the activity should be east of our CWA by early Monday morning. What we need to do now is prepare and make sure we have multiple ways to receive warnings. It important to highlight that greatest potential of the severe storms is expected to occur during the nighttime hours. Stay weather aware and have a plan before you go to bed Sunday night. The weather next week will remain pretty active with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday-Friday. A few passing upper level systems will bring at least scattered showers/storms to our region. A few strong storms will be possible as our area stays in the warm sector pretty much all week. We will continue to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall that could result in some flooding, especially over those locations that see training showers and/or multiple rounds of heavy rain. One last cold front will move across North and Central TX on Friday bringing seasonably cooler temperatures for next weekend. We could be looking at highs in the 70s. Stay tuned for updates! Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Gusty S winds will continue through the overnight hours as a strong LLJ develops over the region. This LLJ will transport moisture northward, allowing CIGs to drop to MVFR at all TAF sites by 11Z. Winds may be just gusty enough to keep CIGs AOA 1,000 ft, but very brief IFR cannot be totally ruled out at KACT. CIGs will scatter out and lift by 18Z. Winds will increase further after 18Z, with sustained winds of around 20 KT with gusts to around 30 KT likely during the afternoon/evening hours. Wind directions will remain from 170-190, but could begin to veer more southwesterly just beyond the TAF period. For the extended portion of the KDFW TAF, TSRA are expected to develop initially to the northwest of the D10 TRACON area around 00Z, but will approach the TRACON area by 03Z. Despite this being more than 24 hours away, confidence is high enough to warrant an introduction of VCTS into the extended portion of the KDFW TAF. Further refinements in timing are likely with an introduction of TEMPO TSRA and possibly even prevailing TSRA in later issuances. Godwin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 90 64 83 65 / 0 10 80 0 10 Waco 68 91 64 84 67 / 0 5 80 5 10 Paris 67 88 64 80 61 / 0 5 90 10 20 Denton 64 90 59 83 59 / 0 10 80 0 10 McKinney 67 90 62 82 61 / 0 5 90 5 20 Dallas 70 91 65 84 66 / 0 5 80 5 10 Terrell 67 90 63 83 62 / 0 5 90 5 20 Corsicana 68 91 66 84 66 / 0 5 80 10 10 Temple 67 92 64 85 66 / 0 5 80 5 10 Mineral Wells 64 90 57 83 60 / 0 10 60 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
National Weather Service Hastings NE
956 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Updated the forecast for late tonight for our far southeast to bring in small chances of rain in our far southeast as some hi-res models are indicating we may be clipped from some developing mid- level frontogenetic forcing. UPDATE Issued at 423 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Increased wind/wind gusts in our far northwest areas where good pressure rises/low-level lapse rates exist with some strong insolation before sunset. Also raised wind/wind gusts in our far south where a tighter surface pressure gradient exists for the next couple of hours. Later tonight as the cold front moves southeast, I raised northwest wind gusts a solid 10-15 mph as both the RAP and even more so ECMWF wind gusts indicate potentially 15 to 30 mph wind gusts, especially associated with the colder air that lags a bit farther behind the cold front. Still keeping an eye on precipitation potential tonight with some elevated instability behind the front and mid-level frontogenetic banding potential in our far southeast. For now I will leave the forecast dry as soundings indicate a significant amount of dry air in the low and mid levels to overcome in order for rainfall to make it to the ground. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 The main forecast challenges this period are some short term rain chances in the far southeast forecast area, and then the significant weather system still on track for midweek. Thick high level clouds across the area today have held down temperatures in most areas, except in the far southeast and Dawson county where clouds have frayed and thinned on the edges. Though we are running behind expected 80 degree temperatures in south central Nebraska especially, afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 70s are still pretty nice. Temperatures have managed to make it into the 80s across north central Kansas. Currently, low pressure in north central is trailing a surface trough/windshift into the western forecast area. The initial surface front will push through the area the next few hours and shift winds along with gradually dropping dewpoints. A much stronger push of northwest winds, dry air and cooler temperatures will come through during the overnight hours and clear most of the forecast area. The exception in the far southeast areas, like Mitchell County. Tightening midlevel frontogenesis could spark a few sprinkles overnight in the south but for now have continued to drier trend of only small, light rain shower chances mainly southeast of a Hebron to Osborne lingering Sunday and Sunday evening. That rain chance will be on the sharp northwest side of an upper low moving up and out of the Southern Plains. The rest of the area will be dry and breezy at times, especially through the late morning hours before northwest winds drop in the late afternoon. Temperatures will cool back closer to season normals for highs. Monday looks like a real keeper of a day with light winds, low dewpoints, lots of sunshine and mild temperatures in the 70s. Things change later Tuesday ahead of a strong upper level low set move to the northwest of the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture is impressively quick given the Sunday weather system will clear much of the low level moisture out of the Southern Plains. Models seem to be settling on a warm and developing breezy day Tuesday before the main shortwave rolls across the area Tuesday night. The main timeframe of rain and thunderstorms is Tuesday night and through about mid-morning Wednesday. The precipitation shield is likely to lift quickly out Wednesday with rapid clearly behind. Rain amounts could vary widely, with some areas getting a tenth or two, but other areas over one-half inch. Strong downward motion on the south side of the system as it passes will result in gusty west winds possible up to 40 mph for a time Wednesday afternoon. Once this system passes, it appears dry and more seasonable Thursday through Saturday. In fact, it might seem a bit cool given our recent warm trend, but its really to be expected for mid October. Overnight low temperatures Thursday through Saturday morning may drop into the middle 30s at various locations resulting in frosty conditions. It will really be the first more widespread frost chances for the season, and the first such chance of frost since about September 22. Though just beyond this forecast period, temperatures warm back up again October 18th and 19th. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 VFR conditions are forecast. Could be a bit gusty with colder air punching in behind a cold front overnight tonight for a few hours and then again toward late morning and afternoon on Sunday with increasing lapse rates. Thick cirrus should start shifting south overnight tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
809 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Near record-breaking warmth will be observed across central and southeast Illinois on Sunday as afternoon high temperatures soar into the middle to upper 80s. After that, a vigorous storm system will track out of the southern Plains, bringing strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to the area on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Steady stream of cirrus continues across the forecast area this evening, though the thickness is not as prevalent south of I-72. 500-300 mb layer humidity plot off the RAP model keeps this pattern going much of the night, with skies becoming partly cloudy over the southeast half of the CWA by sunrise. South/southeast wind will stay up through the night, generally around 10 mph, which will keep temperatures from falling much farther than the 65-67 degree range. No significant changes needed to the earlier forecast. Added a Climate section below with record highs Sunday, as well as record warm lows, both of which will be in jeopardy. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 A warm front currently draped across central Illinois will lift northward into the southern Great Lakes tonight. Ample mid/high cloud cover will accompany the front, but will begin to clear from south to north across the area late. Given cloud cover and a southerly wind of 10 to 15mph, overnight lows will only drop into the middle to upper 60s. As a cold front slowly approaches the Mississippi River from the northwest, several CAMs suggest scattered showers northwest of the Illinois River Sunday morning. Have carried low chance PoPs along/northwest of a Macomb to Minonk line accordingly. The front will eventually stall or even retrograde westward during the day Sunday, so any morning showers will come to an end. The remainder of the area will see partly to mostly sunny skies along with gusty southwesterly winds. Thanks to ample sunshine and strong WAA, high temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 80s...with a few spots south of I-70 potentially reaching the 90 degree mark. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 As has been advertised for the past several days, a significant storm system is slated to track into the Midwest on Monday. 12z Oct 9 models are slightly faster with the low taking it through the Illinois River Valley by Monday afternoon. Given the faster track, it appears the best focus for potential severe weather will be along/east of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon into the early evening. While instability is somewhat lacking, a powerful low-level jet just off the surface will enhance directional/speed shear sufficiently to support rotating updrafts with the storms. 0-3km VGP peaks at 0.3 to 0.4, suggesting the potential for embedded supercells within one or more lines of convection expected to form across the area. Based on these parameters, think the primary severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts...although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Once the low lifts into the Great Lakes, thunderstorms will rapidly come to an end Monday evening...followed by a return to warm/dry weather for Tuesday. After that, another powerful storm system developing over the central/northern Plains will push an occluded front into Illinois late Wednesday into Thursday. While instability will be sufficient to support thunder mention, the strongest forcing/upper dynamics will remain well W/NW of central Illinois...therefore, the severe risk looks low. Several waves may track along the front late next week...keeping rain chances alive into Friday. Once the boundary finally gets pushed eastward out of the region, temperatures will drop back to near normal for this of year in the upper 60s by next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 VFR conditions expected through the period. Main forecast concern will be with the winds. Have continued the LLWS mention overnight as low level jet ramps up, though surface winds will still be around 10 knots or so. South winds expected to gust 20-25 knots by mid morning, and continue through Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 800 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Record temperatures for Sunday: Record High Record Warm Low Bloomington..... 87 (2010) 67 (2018) Champaign....... 86 (1962) 68 (1949) Charleston...... 88 (2010) 71 (2017) Decatur......... 89 (1938) 68 (1949) Galesburg....... 87 (1962) 67 (1904) Jacksonville.... 90 (1963) 67 (2018) Lincoln......... 87 (1962) 64 (1973) Olney........... 89 (1928) 69 (2018) Peoria.......... 87 (1938) 65 (1973) Springfield..... 89 (1963) 71 (1879) && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Geelhart CLIMATE...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
438 PM MST Sat Oct 9 2021 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system passing through the region will bring slightly below normal temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions during the weekend. Winds will increase Monday ahead of a strong cold weather system. Sharply cooler conditions will arrive Tuesday with modest chances of precipitation. A gradual warmup begins in the middle of the week, although temperatures remain below normal through the late week period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest RAP streamline analysis reveals a well-defined and positively-tilted trough across the Sierra-Nevada. Some breeziness is anticipated this afternoon and evening ahead of this system. The trough axis will move through overnight, which will reinforce the cooler and drier than normal conditions Sunday. NBM max temperature distribution for Phoenix is tightly clustered for tomorrow, indicating a high probability of high temperatures only in the lower to mid 80s. Models remain in good agreement depicting another highly anomalous trough diving southward and deepening across the Great Basin Monday. Main impact across the Desert Southwest will initially be windy conditions ahead of trough Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. ECMWF EFI values indicate the potential for strong gusts, particularly across southeastern California Monday afternoon and evening. GFS soundings also indicate 850 mb winds as high as 40-50 kt across the Imperial Valley. However, the larger ensemble including the CMC and EMCWF suites suggest the operational GFS is likely in the top 10 percent of members. Nevertheless, a Wind Advisory has been hoisted for the southwestern corner of Imperial County and the areas just east of JTNP, though this may be expanded eastward even as far as central Arizona if current model trends continue. Latest ECMWF continues to indicate the potential for a line of showers along the cold front late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. The grand ensemble suggests roughly a 20 percent of measurable precipitation in the Phoenix area, though amounts will be quite light if rain does develop. Better chance for precipitation will be further north and east towards the stronger ascent ahead of the low. Exceptionally cool air will build into the region behind the front early Tuesday. Latest NBM continues to trend cooler with a high temperature of only 70 degrees in Phoenix. There is also a 33% chance the high may not even get out of the 60s, though the all-time record low maximum of 66 degrees appears just out of reach. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Lows on Wed morning will feel quite cold as temperatures drop to the upper 40s to low 50s in Phoenix, and even the mid 40s in some lower desert locales. Lows near Globe could fall to near 40 degrees with the low-mid 20s possible at Hilltop. For the second half of the week Clusters favor broad W-Central CONUS troughing and dry conditions, followed by a W CONUS ridge by Friday. This pattern evolution should result in a slow warming trend for the second half of the week with temperatures remaining below normal in the 70s on Wed, and the low to upper 80s for later in the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2338z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns expected through the TAF period. Periods of scattered high clouds will clear fairly quickly by early evening as west winds prevail well into the overnight hours. There may be a few instances of gusts around 20-25kt during the mid evening with a frontal passage, but should have little impact on operations. The typical switch to easterly should occur much later than usual early Sunday morning. Extended periods of light and variable winds may be common Sunday afternoon, but winds should favor the west by the mid-afternoon. Skies will remain clear Sunday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Occasionally gusty winds will be the main weather impact through the TAF period. A N/NW wind direction will be common through the evening with some gusts 20-25kt (most prevalent at KBLH). There may be a tendency for directions to back closer to west overnight, then potentially be more light and variable Sunday afternoon. skies will remain mostly clear through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday: A mostly dry weather system will likely bring sharply cooler temperatures and very breezy conditions to windy conditions to the region Mon/Tue. Gusts exceeding 20-25 mph will be likely with even higher gusts over any exposed terrain/ridgetops possible. Rain chances are less certain but there is a brief 50-60% chance or so for <0.10" across the mountains east of Phoenix Mon/Tue. Conditions will settle down by Wed with a gradual warming trend but with highs remaining below normal. Winds will then be mostly light and diurnal/terrain influenced. Otherwise, afternoon RH values will mostly fall between 12-18% while overnight recoveries reach 30-55%. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ562. Wind Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ561- 570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Sawtelle AVIATION...Feldkircher/18 FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
739 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along the Carolina coast will slowly move north into Sunday, then push northeast Monday. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic area later Sunday through Tuesday, bringing drier weather and above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 611 PM EDT Saturday... Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for this evening into tonight utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and blended the NBM. The regional WSR-88D images showed scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly in the western mountains. The HiresW-ARW and HRRR showed convection will diminish by 03z. More changes this evening... previous discussion As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... Showers exiting by Sunday, sunshine returns. Surface low off the NC/SC coast early this afternoon will linger into Sunday, while low closes off at 5h in the same area, while northern stream low weakens and moves away. Appears best threat of showers will run its course this evening, then deeper moisture heads east to the piedmont/coast tonight, though vicinity of surface low and Atlantic fetch plus some upper support to keep threat of a few showers around east of Lynchburg/Danville into Sunday. Issue tonight will be how much clearing we get and wet ground leading to fog/low clouds. Appears this will likely occur along/west of the wedge across SE WV into far SW VA, as think 1-3kft cigs will linger right into tonight and lower further east despite some breaks appearing this afternoon. Looking at sunshine mixed with clouds once low clouds/fog lift Sunday morning. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler than the past few mainly in the west, but still above normal, with lower to mid 50s mountains to around 60 east. Although we will see sunshine behind departing system, the airmass not really changing, so look for warmer temperatures Sunday as highs run into the 70s, possibly even 80 around Yadkinville. Forecast confidence is average on showers and how east they push out by Sunday, with above average confidence on temps/sky and winds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure and relatively drier air will wedge south into the area Sunday night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the western Gulf will stretch northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region. While under high pressure, the area should not see any rain, but could see patchy to areas of fog in the morning hours. There is a very low chance for isolated showers along western slopes late Tuesday afternoon and early evening as a trough approaches the region. Forecast temperatures are a little more tricky, trying to determine which feature (upper level ridging or surface wedge) will be the dominate one. The surface wedge appears to be strong enough early in the period with northeasterly flow helping to keep afternoon temperatures around normal. As the wedge weakens and becomes a cut- off bubble high, increasing heights aloft will bring warmer than normal temperatures Tuesday. More mixing is expected Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough approaches the region from the west. Tuesday temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s across the mountains to near 80F east of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... A new area of high pressure will move over the region Wednesday following the passing of a surface trough Tuesday night. With little to no cold air behind this trough, upper level ridging and abundant sunshine will help temperatures run 10F-15F warmer than normal through Friday. The Gulf low is expected to track eastward to Cuba through the period. If this ridge stays well to the south, a cold front will cross the region Saturday. If this ridge tracks to the Southeast coast, as models were showing yesterday, the front may not enter the area until Sunday. Based on the latest models, scattered prefrontal showers are possible across the mountains Friday afternoon/evening. A line of showers will move over the region Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 739 PM EDT Saturday... Poor flying conditions expected tonight into Sunday. Low level moisture lingers across the region. Low cigs and pockets of fog and drizzle expected overnight into Sunday at all sites. KLWB is the taf site with the best chance for LIFR/IFR fog. Erosion of low clouds may be slow Sunday but am thinking all sites should be VFR by end of the taf period. Forecast confidence is average on ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... A return to VFR this period with high pressure ridge in place, though could see some late night fog at LWB/BCB. Isolated to scattered MVFR showers are possible in the west Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
948 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .UPDATE... No major updates are needed to the short term forecast at this time. RAP13 and HRRR continue to project dry conditions through the overnight hours, with increasing cloud cover over deep east Texas as we approach daybreak, based on Gulf moisture being carried on the southerly flow. Winds will increase in speed through the day Sunday, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible through the afternoon. Ingested the latest temperature and dewpoint obs and interpolated through to 10/12Z, when morning lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across the ArkLaTex before rebounding into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday afternoon. /26/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021/ AVIATION... For the 10/00Z TAFs, all area terminals will see VFR conditions persist through the overnight hours, after which increasing cloud cover brings MVFR cigs to our western zones after 10/12Z. VFR cigs look to return during the afternoon hours. In advance of more active weather Sunday evening, winds of 10-15 kts from the south are expected Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 15-20 kts. /26/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/ Bottom line up front: The chance for severe weather looks likely, especially north of I-30 during the overnight hours of Sunday. Damaging wind and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat with this activity. The first two periods of this short-term will resemble much of what we`ve seen the last few days. No real weather to speak of, with temperatures continuing to run above average. The one notable change in the weather pattern will be a tightening pressure gradient ahead of Sunday night`s trough. This will allow for some gusty afternoon winds, and a Lake Wind Advisory will likely be considered with the next forecast package. Look for afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s for tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity will ramp up tomorrow night, as the aforementioned trough and cold front continues to push east. While the chance for severe weather looks likely, there are still some questions regarding the extent of storm coverage and strength. There is quite the discrepancy in guidance when it comes to overall instability, and just how far north these best values make it. For the most part, instability values will be tied to the best surge of Gulf moisture tomorrow afternoon and evening. From there, values are dependent upon a sustain southerly flow. Based on some of the latest CAM guidance, the tail end of the cold front will stall, allowing for it to become elongated, blocking off further instability advancement. Wind shear values on the other hand are rather impressive over a good portion of our area, as the front moves through the region. The kicker here will be unfavorable zones of forcing, and storms not being able to fully tap into this shear in the atmosphere. The best chances for things to all come together are the areas currently highlighted by the SPC, which are most locations along and north of I-30. Once again, given impressive wind shear values, the primary threat with this thunderstorm activity will be damaging winds. However, the tornado threat can not be discounted either. Hodographs maintain quite the veering profile, even with storms expected to quickly take a linear profile. Additionally, 0-1km shear in much of these areas are 30+ knots during the prime storm timeframe. Once again mentioning the storm`s linear profile, this would mean the tornado threat would be embedded in the advancing QLCS, going along side with the wind threat. Shower and thunderstorms will become sub-severe as the morning progresses, with lingering thunderstorm chances remaining into the day on Monday. Behind the front, look for afternoon high temperatures on Monday to range in the upper 70s to low 80s. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 91 71 85 / 0 0 60 30 MLU 65 89 71 86 / 0 0 20 40 DEQ 63 89 63 81 / 0 0 90 20 TXK 68 89 68 83 / 0 0 80 20 ELD 64 87 67 82 / 0 0 50 40 TYR 68 90 66 83 / 0 0 90 20 GGG 66 90 66 84 / 0 0 80 20 LFK 67 91 70 87 / 0 0 70 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 26/44
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 There are two systems of interest in this forecast package that look to bring thunderstorms and heavy rain to the area. For starters, today has been an unseasonably warm early October day across the region. At 20Z, many locations had warmed to 90 degrees within a zone of strong southerly flow. Looking at the synoptic setup across the country, upper level water vapor imagery is showing an elongated trough extending from the Intermountain West to the central California coastline. Within a stream of moisture ahead of that trough, a thick batch of cirrus clouds had been in place over much of the CWA today. Surface obs at 20Z show a 1000 mb area of low pressure in central Nebraska and breezy southwesterly winds in eastern Kansas. Tonight, the western trough will split into two waves. One will traverse the north-central US. That will cause the surface low to move northeast, bringing an associated surface front into eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, the southern stream wave will work across the Four Corners and then across the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma and into eastern Kansas Sunday and Sunday night. Have gone with slight chance POPs early Sunday morning north of a line from Abilene to Hiawatha where CAMS continue to show a signal. POPs then increase area-wide by late afternoon as the southern stream wave and associated surface low lifts into the area. The RAP shows about 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE developing near Anderson Co by 00Z Monday, but the HRRR is slightly further south with that instability. HREF only shows about 500 J/kg of MUCAPE developing near and south of Interstate 35 as storm chances increase. If the higher instability values can be realized, there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms initially given effective bulk shear values around 50 kts. Heavy precipitation is the more likely hazard, especially south of I-35 where up to 2.0 inches of rainfall could occur late Sunday into Monday morning. Our first system clears the area on Monday while the next one deepens over the western CONUS. Rapid lee-cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late Monday and Tuesday, and rich theta-e air will advect back into Kansas on Tuesday. Long range models are not in great agreement at this range on the timing of increasing POPs, but am thinking that storms could develop in central Kansas Tuesday afternoon, where severe weather could occur. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase in eastern Kansas Tuesday night with another round of heavy rain possible. This looks like a very dynamic system, so trends will be watched closely given timing differences and the potential for another round of severe weather for parts of the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 VFR continues this period. As sfc winds diminish this evening, LLWS is expected to develop at TOP/FOE with a 45-50 kt LLJ developing around 01Z. A frontal boundary approaches overnight and causes the jet to weaken, and then brings a wind shift to the northwest during the morning hours. There could be a few isolated showers in the area during the morning with increasing chances through the day, but confidence doesn`t become high enough to introduce into the TAFs until the very end of the period. Have held off mention for now, but will need to monitor for inclusion in future issuances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Very high fire danger is still forecast for parts of north central Kansas this afternoon. However winds may not be as strong as previously forecast with the stronger pressure gradient setting up further to the east. Nevertheless southwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts along with RH values in the 20 to 25 percent range look to create very high fire danger. Over east central and northeast KS, minimum RH values should be higher around 30 percent and mitigating the fire danger somewhat. In any case, land managers continue to report fuels are not critical with one and ten hour fuel moisture in the 20 to 30 percent range. So will keep the fire danger in the high to very high range and call for avoiding outdoor burning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Picha FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
907 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .DISCUSSION... A trough is very evident across the desert southwest with the base of the trough located across southern CA into S NV and W AZ. A small amount of riding was noted over the southern plains which has loosely led to temperatures being well above normal. Ft. Smith actually set a record high this afternoon with a temperature of 95. Dew points were relatively low this afternoon which helped temperatures warm up quickly and allowed it to feel not quite as hot. The moisture is still located deep in the Gulf but the latest Total PWAT satellite imagery is showing the moisture starting to push northward with southerly flow through 850mb. This will be the fuel and the aforementioned trough will be a key ingredient for our likely severe weather outbreak for tomorrow late afternoon, evening, and overnight. Taking a step back, the rest of this evening and overnight will see elevated southerly winds overnight across the area thanks to a tight surface pressure gradient. Winds will not be as gusty as this afternoon, but expect winds to still be in the 10 to 20mph range under partly cloudy skies. Lower clouds, signifying the initial arrival of Gulf moisture, will likely start moving into SE OK late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Dew points will noticeably increase through the night with dews likely in the low to mid 60s by sunrise. Our attention then turns to the severe weather threat for tomorrow afternoon. Overall, a significant severe threat is still expected to impact most if not all of the area to some degree. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE! Flash flooding will also pose a threat as well. Taking a look at some of the details, the upper wave will begin to become negatively tilted as it swings through the region late Sunday into Monday which will help to strengthen the surface low pressure thanks to enhanced divergence aloft. At the surface, a cold front will slowly progress eastward across central OK through the morning and afternoon. Look for this front to initially trigger storms by late afternoon across west-central and/or southwestern OK. Just ahead of the front, there will be gusty southerly winds. These moisture-rich southerly winds will allow for moisture pooling to occur along and just ahead of the front which will locally enhance dew points and, perhaps more importantly, will locally enhance CAPE values. These CAPE values will need to watched as they will play an important role in the significance of this severe weather outbreak. HREF mean for SBCAPE is indicating values of 750 to 1000J/kg north of I40 in E OK while locations to the south of I 40 in E OK are seeing values in the 1000 to 1500J/kg. W AR SBCAPE values are a little lower but still a modest 500 to 750J/kg. HREF max is indicating values of 1000 to 1500J/kg for NE OK, 1500 to 2500J/kg for SE OK, and 1000 to 1500J/kg for W AR. SREF is also in pretty good agreement with a 50 to 60% chance for greater than 1000J/kg across E OK with a 20 to 30% chance across for W AR. These lower values are largely thanks to relatively poor mid level lapse rates of 6 to 6.5C/km (some isolated pockets of 7C/km map be possible though SREF only gives it a 30% chance at best for E OK with much lower chances for W AR) with the low level lapse rates roughly the same by the time the storms arrive. This is all indicative of a fairly low large hail threat overall but the threat is definitely not zero. The severe ingredient that is going to dominate and drive this event by far will be the shear. Shear will be more or less off the charts which means even marginal instability will sustain any strong to severe storms. The 500mb trough swinging through will be compact/potent with an 80+kt jet rounding the base Sunday night into early Monday morning. Taking a look a little lower, we see very strong 850mb flow (likely as a result of a strengthening low as the mid level trough becomes negatively tilted) with winds from the SSW in excess of 60kts over much of E OK and NW AR with some locations (mainly NE OK) in excess of 70kts. At 925mb, strong flow is still observed with 35 to 45kts from the south. At the surface, especially ahead of the cold front, winds will be from the south (likely some easterly component) at 10 to 15kts Sunday evening/overnight. These winds can be see well with the use of a forecast hodograph. One thing to really pick out from these winds (especially the 850mb winds which is only about 1km AGL) is the potential that these could translate to the ground if a strong enough storm were redirect those winds which is entirely reasonable. Thus damaging wind gusts of 70mph (maybe in excess? More data is needed) will be very possible. Forecast hodographs over the past few days have continued to be rather impressive with rather large classic looking cyclic profiles The latest guidance from a variety of models is in good agreement with 0-1km SRH easily in excess of 200m^2/s^2 during the evening and overnight hours. These values could exceed 300m^s/s^s by late evening as the low level jet really begins to crank up. The 0-1km SRH appears to be highest from about I-44 and southward for the late evening and overnight timeframe. The mean HREF is also supportive of this data as well. The 0-3km SRH presents slightly higher values (as expected) across the area but offers a secondary area to watch closer to the track of the surface low as it translates NE along the cold front. Severe storms near the track of the surface low may also benefit from slightly steeper lapse rates and thus a greater potential for large hail. The 18Z HRRR run shows the possibility of a stronger storm moving along I-44 into NE OK. As Im finishing up this AFD it appears the 00Z HRRR is pretty much in line with what the 18Z had. As it stands now, there appears to be 2 areas of heightened concern (SE OK and NE OK) when it comes to the overall tornado threat. Paintball plots from the HREF show a cluster of UH > 75m^2/s^2 tracks across NE OK into NW AR. With the threshold bumped up to 150m^2/s^2 we notice fewer paintball plots but a somewhat disorganized cluster of NE OK. This data seems to indicate that severe storms across NE OK could be significantly severe thanks to aid from the nearby low. One thing to note will be as the storms progress eastward into an increasing low level jet, it will not take much for mesocyclones to develop within the line of storms across E OK and eventually NW AR. The instability may be lower for NW AR but there will be more than enough shear (especially by the time the line arrives in NW AR) for storms to maintain strength. There will likely be a few spin ups/QLCS tornadoes that develop within the line during the late evening and overnight hours across E OK and NW AR. The HRRR and the HREF paintball plots show spotty enhanced tracks across E OK into NW AR indicative of brief mesocyclones developing within the line. Unfortunately these kinds of tornadoes can be very difficult to detect on radar thus it is very important that EVERYONE ACROSS E OK AND NW AR BE WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A PLAN READY TO GO! Taking a quick look at the flash flood threat, we notice enhanced forecast PWAT values near 2" (easily in excess of the 90th percentile for this time of year) across E OK and NW AR during the evening and overnight hours with heighten values likely across NE OK. This will translate into highly efficient rainfall rates with any storm that develops. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be common with some rates of 3 inches per hour (perhaps briefly higher) being possible. The area to watch will be NE OK, especially for locations along and northwest of the low track. This area will likely see several rounds of storms training over the same area which will lead to locally enhanced amounts and may result in localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed if future forecasts become confident in an area of locally very heavy rainfall. Locations, mainly south of I-44, will see a line of storms that will bring heavy rainfall (in addition to the aforementioned severe weather threat) but should be in and out relatively quickly with minimal time for rain to accumulate. With that said, there could still be localized flash flooding problems as well given the very high rainfall rates that are possible. A quick recap all modes of severe weather are possible tomorrow across E OK and NW AR. The primary severe weather hazards will be damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Large hail will be a lower threat though may be enhanced closer to the surface low across NE OK. As for timing, storms may enter the western portions of the CWA (NE OK portions) as early as 6PM. A NNE to SSE roughly oriented line will likely be established west of the CWA before it progresses eastward across CWA. Rough timing to a line between Miami and Hugo is 10 to midnight and midnight to 3AM for the storms as they cross into NW AR. Keep in mind there are still some uncertainties in timing and surges within the line of storms could allow storms to arrive sooner at any given location than expected. The other threat to monitor will be the threat for heavy rainfall. Locations along and to the northwest of the low track could see training storms which combined with the highly saturated environment could lead to locally heavy rainfall which may result in flash flooding. Stay safe and be weather aware! Snider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 70 88 60 78 / 0 40 100 10 FSM 67 90 64 79 / 0 10 90 20 MLC 67 87 59 78 / 0 10 100 10 BVO 67 87 58 75 / 0 50 100 10 FYV 63 86 59 75 / 0 10 90 30 BYV 67 85 61 73 / 0 0 90 40 MKO 67 85 60 75 / 0 20 100 10 MIO 69 85 60 73 / 0 20 100 30 F10 67 87 58 78 / 0 30 100 10 HHW 67 87 62 78 / 0 10 90 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21