Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/03/21

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The forecast for tonight remains on track. Smoke continues to move south/southeast across central and portions of western North Dakota late this evening. Visibility overall has fluctuated from 2 to 5 miles due to the smoke. HRRR smoke model has handled the denser part of the smoke well, but did fail to capture the true aerial extent. This was easy to fix using sfc obs and DOT web cams. Highlighted the smoke on social media (where the smoke is coming from and how long it will last). UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Once again tweaked areas of smoke based on sat imagery, sfc obs, and DOT web cams. Basically sped up the timing of the south and eastward progression, and expanded slightly to the west. Main area of smoke will push south/southeast across most if not all of central areas of North Dakota now through tonight. Question then is how long smoke lingers Sunday morning. For this product issuance, ended smoke at 12Z and will reassess later tonight whether to expand in time or not. All other forecast elements on track. UPDATE Issued at 510 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Just a quick update to fine tune/tweak areas of smoke based on latest sfc observations and high resolution numerical guidance. Overall these changes were minor from what was inherited. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Northwesterly surface winds have carried in wildfire smoke to our northern counties from Saskatchewan. The smoke is very apparent at the surface from satellite, airport observations, and human reports. The thickest areas of smoke have dropped visibilities below a mile at Estevan, SK, and may cause breathing issues for those with respiratory concerns. This smoke should continue drifting towards the southeast through the afternoon, while likely becoming less dense. Otherwise, with surface high pressure and upper level ridging influencing the area, tonight should remain mostly clear with temperatures falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Mostly clear conditions will continue through the day Sunday, with temperatures warming up into the lower 70s east to upper 70s/lower 80s across the central and west. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Our area will remain under upper level ridging for much of the upcoming week, maintaining dry and mostly clear conditions along with warm temperatures. By Tuesday, many locations across the central and west will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with a couple of 90 degree readings not completely ruled out given the pattern of temperatures generally over-performing. With the warm and dry conditions, afternoon minimum humidity will be very low (teens to low 20s) across the west and into the central each day through mid week. Winds look like they might behave for the most part, but increasing southerly winds Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of an upper trough digging into the western CONUS may lead to some near critical fire weather concerns across parts of the forecast area. A pattern change is still expected heading into the weekend as the aforementioned trough makes its way into the northern Plains, bringing a return to seasonable temperatures and chances for showers. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 A large area of smoke originating from far south central Canadian wildfires will push south/southeast across central North Dakota now through tonight. Impacted terminals include KMOT now through early Sun morning, KBIS early this evening through around 12Z Sun, and KJMS later this evening through parts of Sun morning. Occasionally reduced visibility is possible, but should remain mainly VFR as the smoke is expected to become less dense with time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period with mainly light winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...Gale LONG TERM...Gale AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1156 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .AVIATION... IFR to possible LIFR ceilings will develop overnight into Sunday morning as low level moisture behind warm front continues to funnel into the area. Showers will also become more numerous overnight with periodic showers on through Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure shifts slowly east into the region. A period of lower MVFR cigs may develop Sunday afternoon, but showers will be on the increase late in the day as the aforementioned low arrives and more or less stall over/near the forecast area. For DTW...Expect MVFR to IFR cigs as the forecast begins with LIFR not out of the question late tonight/early Sunday morning. Showers will increase into the overnight with continue on/off on through Sunday. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings 5000 feet or less throughout the forecast. * Very low for a thunderstorm at the terminal overnight into Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 DISCUSSION... 580dam H5 ridge will completely break down this afternoon leading to increasing cyclonic flow and a wash of deep column thetae. Early stages of broad wavelength troughing yields very little organized low level jet axis, in fact, SPC RAP based mesoanalysis shows only weak moisture transport vector in place over the region this afternoon. Model data supports a coherent, upright warm front between 925-650mb working across the cwa between 18-21Z this afternoon. Elevated shower activity will now be possible anytime after 21Z. Moist adiabatic lapse rates bring weak static stability above 7.0 kft agl with a very dry boundary layer. Inverted V sounding and evaporative potential yields some chance for gusty winds with convective shower activity. The better chance for an isolated rumble of thunder may be after the intiial moisture surge and reside along a 900mb frontal surface after 00Z. Low confidence exists in any lightning activity. Most focused of activity may occur south of the M 59 corridor this evening. Weak static stability will then support occasional shower activity throughout the night. Plan view of moisture progs show the richest thetae plume will work eastward tonight with the western flank still in place to begin the day Sunday. The main absolute vorticity center is forecasted to lift out of the central Plains to near Chicago by 18Z Sunday supporting lower tropospheric low pressure develoment over southwest Michigan. Forcing mechanism to key off of Sunday will be the development of a stretching deformation axis that should set up over the northern 1/2 of the cwa. Favorable convergence axis and upper level diffluent flow will become positioned with large scale geopotential height falls. Hires models show activity occurring north of I 69 during the morning then diabatic heating leading to increased convective development during the afternoon across Southwest Lower Michigan in closer proximity to surface low. Latest signal then carries afternoon shower and potential thunderstorms to the northeast coalescing under the stretching deformation axis well into Sunday evening and night. Very little steering flow brings concern for slow moving convection and heavy rainfall. PWAT values are forecasted to reach 1.60 inches supportive of heavy rainfall. The potential will exist for thunderstorms but marginal instability at 1000 J/kg and weak deep layer shear limits the risk. Current trends in QPF suggest that total QPF amounts could exceed 1.00 to 1.50 inch along a west to east corridor near I 69. Barotropic low pressure will then be in place over Southeast Michigan Monday through Tuesday. The pattern will be dicated by background easterly flow trajectories that will bring seasonally moist and warm wrap around conditions to the state. Not expecting a washout Monday but persistent of surface low near Detroit supports the likely PoPs. A Rex Block is then forecasted for the middle of next week. Main question for the forecast is timing or how progressive the closed low over the southern United States will be. Latest indications are the closed low will lift northward and plague the region possibly through the end of the week and next weekend. Seasonally mild to warm temperatures are expected. Low chance PoPs are in place. MARINE... A stationary front extends east across northern Lake Huron from low pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes. This weak low tracks slowly southeast tonight into Sunday, passing directly over the central Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. The gradient will remain weak and hold wind speeds below headline criteria, though variable wind direction will shift to the northeast by late Sunday as the aforementioned front eases southward. Periodic bouts of showers will move in this evening and overnight as moisture streams into the region. These showers with occasional embedded thunderstorms will continue through the day Sunday and likely into at least early Monday before the low departs to the south. HYDROLOGY... A large area of low pressure will develop over the central Great Lakes beginning tonight and persist over the region throughout the beginning of next week. A warm front will lift northward into Southeast Michigan this evening allowing moisture and humidity over the state. Rainfall totals in excess of 1 inch will be possible by Monday morning. Slow moving shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible particularly north of I 69 Sunday afternoon. The long duration of the rain combined with recent dry spell may allow for ponding on roadways, but no flooding concerns are expected. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......TF HYDROLOGY....CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
653 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/ Scattered convection over the Hill Country appears to lose steam as they are marching slowly SE toward the SAT area. Will leave no mention in the TAFs as the loss of daytime heating should reduce coverage to isolated. Time sections show a fair amount of mid level clouds that should linger through much of the night. This should limit the amount of fog to form until we get closer to daybreak. Will just place a standard 4SM visibility, but there could be a few pockets of dense fog given the rains received over the past two events. Much less cloud and vsby considerations are made for DRT where less rain fell. Light winds are expected through the period, but some steady breezes up to 10 knots may be possible in the mid afternoon hours along I-35. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)... Early afternoon RAP analysis depicts a closed upper low over KS that is in the process of opening up as it`s ingested into the nrn stream flow. A weak cold front extends to its south through eastern OK and TX and is beginning to very slowly push into our northern counties this afternoon. Despite an 80 kt 250mb jet moving overhead, rain coverage along and ahead of the front had actually decreased through the morning, with only a few isolated sprinkles and light showers as of 18Z, mainly north of our area. In fact, there`s likely two separate weak boundaries at the moment, one just north of the escarpment in our CWA and a second just north of our CWA associated with the decaying early AM precipitation. Shower activity finally began to develop along the southern boundary just after 18Z but has remained isolated. With CAMs continuing to back off on coverage of this activity through this evening, I`ve continued the trend of lowering POPs. The best chances today will remain over the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor at about 30%. Some slight chances will remain in the forecast for the Coastal Plains as well, but many areas are likely to remain dry today with highs in the 80s under a mix of clouds and sun. Overnight, a shower or two may linger across southern/southwestern portions of the region as the boundary hangs around the region and moisture pools along the Rio Grande. H7 flow out of the NW will push a drier airmass into the Hill Country, and overnight lows there will drop into the low 60s. Upper 60s and low 70s are forecast elsewhere. for Sunday, a few of the CAMs still depict very isolated pop-up showers. Although there`s not much in the way of large-scale lift to speak of, slightly more favorable jet streak placement could be some help. Have opted to carry a broad-brushed 10%POP across the southern half to two thirds of the area to cover this remote chance. Despite northerly/northeasterly surface flow, temperatures during the day will actually be a couple degrees warmer than today for most locations as a result of some stronger subsidence as high pressure begins to build in behind the front. Sunday night will be dry with lows in the 60s to near 70, with a couple low-lying spots probably dipping into the 50s. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... An upper level trough over the Central Plains will dig down into the southern Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday. Central Texas will be on the backside of this trough and the flow will be northerly to northwesterly. The low level flow during this time will be northerly to easterly across our CWA. This combination will keep our weather dry during the first part of the new week. With the drier air in the low levels, low temperatures will fall a few degrees while high temperatures warm slightly. The upper trough over the Mississippi will close off into a low and this low will drift northward during the middle of the week. Texas will continue to be on the dry side of this feature. Low level high pressure will move from near the Texas Panhandle through East Texas to the Gulf. This will result in light surface winds. The bottom line will be dry weather continuing through the latter part of the week. Temperatures, both highs and lows, will warm a degree or two and be above normal through this time period. Saturday the low level flow will become southeasterly and moister air will return to the region, but still no lifting mechanism and we will stay dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 90 67 89 62 / 20 - 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 90 66 90 61 / 20 - 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 89 67 91 62 / 20 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 88 63 87 61 / 10 - 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 90 70 91 67 / 10 10 0 - 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 89 64 88 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 68 90 67 90 62 / 20 10 0 - 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 90 65 91 60 / 20 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 90 67 91 62 / 20 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 88 69 89 65 / 20 10 0 - 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 91 70 92 65 / 20 10 0 - 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks Long-Term...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1010 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Smoke is lingering in northeast ND and along/west of the escarpment, however vis has remains in the 5-8sm range (lower impacts). Fog is starting to develop near Lake of the Woods a bit earlier than expected, but remains patchy/variable in impacts. I adjusted timing of fog and left smoke mention only during evening period. Otherwise forecast remains on track, and will continue to monitor trends regarding fog coverage/impacts. UPDATE Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Smoke overspread the Devils Lake Basin a bit faster with vis restrictions than HRRR smoke model had indicated, and adjustments were made to account for this. This may actually spread further east and eventually get trapped under the nocturnal inversion, so it will be hard to gauge impacts into the evening/overnight (additional adjustments likely needed). Rest of forecast still appears to be on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Highlights within the short term include potential for fog, some smoke from Canada moving towards the FA, and seasonably warm temperatures. Mid level trough that focused recent rain is pushing east as a jet streaks noses into the PacNW reintroducing ridging into the Northern Plains. This is helping clear skies from west to east, with lingering clouds within Minnesota expected to push east into central Minnesota by this evening. Surface ridging currently in eastern North Dakota is expected to influence tonight`s weather helping keep keep wind light. Recent hi res guidance continues to favor calm winds within northwest Minnesota. These calm winds and clear skies should provide efficient radiational cooling allowing favorable conditions for fog, some of which may be dense and may present some impact to travel through limited visibility. A nudging factor towards fog potential will be antecedent damp soils from recent rain and daytime cloud cover. Again, currently favored areas for fog will be in northwest Minnesota outside of the Valley. There remains potential for fog within west-central Minnesota as well, however confidence is lessened due to questions on whether winds will remain high enough to prevent fog, or at least making it more patchy and transient. Will continue to defer decision towards advisory issuance due to confidence remaining less than 70% in coverage and better placement of dense fog, however best timing for potential fog will be between 2 am - 8 am. An area of smoke originating from a large fire in east-central Saskatchewan is moving south-southeast into northwest and north- central North Dakota. Recent surface observations show this area of smoke is near the surface with visibilities as low as 1 mile as seen at Minot. This smoke is expected to push into portions of the Devils Lake basin late this afternoon into the evening. Gradual dispersal of smoke is expected tonight. Otherwise, seasonably warm temperatures with highs well into the 70s are expected Sunday. Combined with ample sunshine and lights winds, a pretty nice early October day is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Confidence continues to be high on the evolution of next week. Ridging over the area is expected to eventually give way to upstream troughing, bringing southwesterly flow over the region. Primary impacts expected over the long term period will be repeated breezy days through midweek and precipitation chances by Friday and Saturday. The beginning half of the period will be characterized by large scale ridging. This ridge is rather transient and won`t stick around for the entirety of the period. Closer to the surface, given the position of the ridging, southerly flow will develop over the area. With the lack of moisture and lack of an airmass change, the expectation is for mostly clear skies through the week with breezy conditions thanks to deeper vertical mixing. Looking ahead towards the end of the period, there is a strong signal for precipitation by Friday and Saturday. The primary questions at this point will be position and timing of precipitation and how much moisture is able to advect as a result of the southerly flow, so there is something to watch for by the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 SMoke is causing variable visibility conditions in the DVL area and this may start to impact KGFK and KFAR this evening (confidence is low at this time but should be monitored). Patchy ground fog with some dense pockets are possible later tonight into Sunday morning in MN (possibly into southeast ND). Confidence in impacts is still low as conditions could vary, and I leaned forecast towards IFR rather than VLIFR at KBJI. Impacts at other terminals are still too uncertain due to the nature/coverage of possible fog tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...Perroux AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
946 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The short term forecast is looking to be fairly quiet. The rest of today will see a mix of clouds and sunshine as the surface low continues to push off further to the east and higher pressure begins to move in from the west. By this point, the outer bands of the low are now southeast of the area and have little to no bearing on the area. With that in mind, winds and cloud cover are expected to decrease going into the evening and overnight hours allowing for clear skies and relatively light winds. With those conditions over the Tri-State area, lows are forecasted to drop into the low to mid 40`s over the night with a few low lying areas potentially seeing temperatures in the upper 30`s. Fog could also be possible in some areas though the westerly component to the winds could limit the potential for fog to develop. Sunday, the area remains between the 500mb ridge and trough though the ridge to the west begins to amplify and start pushing its way east. Near the surface, relatively high pressure will have expanded over the area and moisture is forecasted to remain limited with surface dewpoints in the 30`s and 40`s with 850mb-700mb layer RH near 30%. Given these conditions, sunny to mostly sunny skies will be present across the area tomorrow. This will also allow temperatures to warm into the low 80`s, especially with 850mb temps near 20C. The warmer temperatures and dry conditions will allow for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions along and west of the Colorado border as RH values drop into the mid to upper teens. Sunday night looks to be similar to Saturday night with clear skies and relatively light westerly winds. Low temperatures are forecasted to be a few degrees warmer than the prior night with lows mainly in the mid 40`s with some low 40`s possible. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 At the start of the period, nearly northerly flow prevails aloft as upper ridging amplifies along the eastern Rockies. This ridge progresses east on Monday and Tuesday, centering over the High Plains between two areas of low pressure (one near Baja California and one in the southeastern CONUS). Dry weather prevails, with a potential for near critical fire weather conditions on Monday along and west of the Colorado border where relative humidities fall as low as the middle teens. Fortunately, northerly winds appear to be light at this time. The Baja California disturbance ejects through the flow on Wednesday, but precipitation chances look to avoid the region for now. Beginning on Thursday, the southeast low progresses, allowing upper ridging to rebuild over the Plains. The ridge persists through Saturday, resulting in continued dry conditions for the area. Temperatures remain relatively steady through the long term period. High temperatures range in the upper 70s to low 80s, while low temperatures are mainly in the 40s and low 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 940 PM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 ...Optimal Aviation Weather... Clear skies /VFR conditions/ and light/variable winds are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. With clear skies and calm winds, a brief period of patchy fog cannot be ruled out AOA sunrise.. though HRRR visibility forecasts are not indicative of fog development. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...VINCENT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
600 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 - The primary issue into Sunday is locally heavy rainfall - Some drying Tue-Wed but rain comes back late in week - Some suggestion of colder after the 15th && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 - The primary issue into Sunday is locally heavy rainfall It is looking much more likely we will see areas of locally heavy rainfall with isolated thunderstorms tonight into Sunday. The 12z HREF 24hr LPMM shows numerous patches of 2 to 3 inches of rain over a good part of our CWA. Several runs of the HRRR and NAMNEST show 2 to 4 inches in narrow bands but there are numerous such bands over a good part of our CWA. So, the message is locally heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday. What we have is the merging of northern and southern stream shortwaves into a well developed upper low. The merging begins this evening but really come together Sunday. We have a negative tilt upper wave Sunday morning. The 500 to 300 mb Q-Vect convergence is impressive Sunday morning over Lower Michigan. Model sounding show the typical nearly saturated sounding to near 300 mb with very skinny cape (typical of a heavy rain sounding). Winds will be light over a good part of our CWA to over 500 mb Sunday morning due to the forming of the upper low. That means storm cells will not be moving much. Given the precipitable water is in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, which is well above normal for this time of year, all of this fits the idea of locally heavy rainfall. Pin-pointing the local of the heaviest rain is more like throwing a dart. We knew there will be heavy rain but the hi-res models are not that good that they can tell us 24 - 36 hours out, where exactly they will be. In this case most of our forecast waring area has a threat due to large upper level system that is causing the forcing for lift. The thunderstorm threat is low since the cape is so narrow but that is not to say we will not see some thunderstorms but the key here is the heavy rain more so than any other threat with these storms. Most of the heavy rain may not come from thunderstorms,just very efficient rain showers. Looking at the FLASH soil moisture, it is showing mostly below 50 percent and western sections near and south of I-96 are below 30 percent. So I do not see a major flood threat. This is mostly a local urban flooding threat. The heavy rain threat is best Sunday during the day. By evening the best inflow is east of this area. We will still see showers around but they will likely not be as heavy. - Some drying Tue-Wed but rain comes back late in week Once the upper level system really develops it will sink well south to near the Gulf Coast in the Tue-Wed time frame. A large upper high forms north of it (REX BLOCK) over MI/MN. That should give us some drier weather, but it will still be warmer than normal as there is really no cold air near us at this point. The next large scale Pacific system will pick up that upper low and bring the Gulf moisture back north with it. At this point the end of the week into the weekend will likely be rather wet but still warmer than normal. This will be a prolonged event since the upper low will be worth a few days of rain, but then we will have a stalled front near us with waves. That will mean maybe 3 to 5 days of periodic shower into early next week. - Some suggestion of colder after the 15th We do have a recurving typhoon, what was, Typhoon Mindulle. This in now a rather impressive storm near Japan. This will help, through rossby wave interactions, develop a trough over the central or eastern CONUS by the end of the following week. It is at that point the cold air may well come into our area, and possibly be our first widespread freeze. The ensembles of the GEFS, and ECMWF are now showing this in that time frame.This is more than 2 weeks away but something to thing about. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 600 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 A mix of primarily MVFR to IFR conditions is forecast tonight due to low clouds and areas of rain showers. Conditions will gradually deteriorate to mainly IFR/LIFR late tonight through Sunday morning due to lowering cigs as well as scattered showers and patchy fog. Mainly IFR conditions are forecast Sunday due to low clouds scattered showers and fog. There is not enough potential for thunderstorms to warrant mention of it in any of the terminal forecasts at this time. It is possible that an isolated storm could impact any of the terminals this evening and again Sunday (mainly late in the afternoon and early evening). The terminal forecasts will be updated accordingly as needed as confidence in any thunderstorm timing/location increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 We may have to issue a small craft advisory for Sunday night into Monday for the north winds on back side of our departing storm system. However the wind is more offshore than in our near shore so I through it best to let later shifts consider this as a possibility. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WDM DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...Laurens MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1049 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain over New England tonight. This boundary will bring mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers into Sunday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly move eastward Sunday night into Monday bringing continued chances for showers possibly lasting into Tuesday. High pressure builds in towards Wednesday bringing mostly dry weather the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 1045 PM Update...A few more tweaks to PoP/Wx and T/Td trends but otherwise no change. 700 PM Update... Have a refresh of T/Td along with PoP/Wx through tonight according to latest trends. This brought down temperatures a little quicker, though overnight lows are largely the same given high dew points. Otherwise the forecast is well on track. Previously... Scattered showers will continue across the forecast area overnight as weak warm air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere along and near a frontal system. The latest HRRR and HREF solutions continue to indicate the highest likelihood for precipitation overnight will be located over northern and western portions of the forecast area. Patchy late night fog cannot be ruled out especially in the vicinity of the most persistent shower activity. There will be a wide range in overnight lows tonight with readings near 40 over far northern areas, but 50s over southern sections. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 12Z operational and ensemble guidance continues to indicate that a slow moving and weak area of low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night. Scattered showers will continue along with mainly cloudy skies. The chances for precipitation will increase Sunday night as the system continue to slowly plow east to a position over northern Ohio. Highest temperatures will continue to be along and near the New Hampshire and Massachusetts state border along and south of the frontal boundary. A few lower 70s can be expected in this region once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showery for points south and west to start the week with continued cloudy skies, drier and warmer conditions come mid- week. 12z upper air analysis shows a upper level low centered just off the coast of New Brunswick this morning. This low is forecast to slowly exit NE across the Gulf of St Lawrence over the next 24 hours, slowing over Newfoundland Monday. NNW winds in wake of this low will contribute to the advection of dry air from the north across much of Maine, including western points. Meanwhile, areas of broad and localized low pressure will organize over the Upper Midwest this weekend. The area of low pressure spreads eastward into the Great Lakes come Monday, with a stationary boundary draped through New England. The area of low pres will feature a wide conveyor belt of moisture moving poleward, but without a punchy northerly component, it wont be able to penetrate the stiff zone of baroclinicity across New England. The result of these warring air masses is continued dry conditions for northern and central Maine, with the ongoing chance of showers for much of NH and western/southern Maine. Wet vs dry is likely going to be defined by a sharp gradient. Areas on the wet southerly side would receive occasional showers, and the northern dry area receiving much less coverage with a passing shower. Defining this exact line will come as the low develops across the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours. Rain chances increase in central ME as the deformation zone drops into the eastern Great Lakes Monday evening. This provides a more decisive push of moisture throughout central New England, albeit short-lived. With the amplified upper trough remaining in a positive tilt, the base becomes cut-off from prevailing flow, meandering across the Ozarks through mid-week. The weakening of southerly flow is enough for the northern stream to cozen dry air into the area Wed thru Fri. Guidance is fairly scattered when it comes to the weekend. High pressure will transit the Northeast at the end of the week with dry weather, but there is a wide spread as to how return flow and approaching low pres wrapping up into Ontario/Quebec pushes moisture into New England. As a result, kept precip chances low, keying mostly on any moist return flow behind the exiting high. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...A frontal boundary will bring mostly cloudy or overcast conditions through Sunday night with occasional -SHRA, mainly over northern and western sections. More widespread MVFR cigs will be possible tonight particularly at KLEB, KHIE, and KCON. Cigs will likely lift to VFR Sunday, although MVFR cigs will still be possible. Conditions lower once again Sunday night. Long Term...A period of MVFR/IFR ceilings is possible through Mon night with -SHRA, improving Tues afternoon for mostly NH terminals. Conditions may only waver between VFR/MVFR for ME terminals. VFR for Wed and Thurs with predominately light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term...A generally easterly flow will continue over the waters tonight through Sunday night. Seas will continue to gradually build during the period with a long period swell continuing. Have capped the seas at 4 feet as large waves are not being detected near the Gulf of Maine, therefore SCAs will not be needed. Long Term...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria as a stationary boundary lingers over New England through Tues. High pressure moves into the region through mid-week. Waves generally expected to be 2 to 4 ft with light winds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Casey NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Cornwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
852 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through the rest of the weekend as a pair of upper level disturbances pass through the region. Expect showers and occasional thunderstorms to affect the area through Sunday with periods of heavy rain possible in areas of thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 70s for Sunday and into all of next week thanks to a slow-moving upper level low pressure system. && .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Precip has become more scattered and lots of it has diminished over most of the area. Cloudy skies will continue over the region as the upper level wave is still west of the state and will slowly move east tonight through tomorrow. Scattered showers will remain possible overnight with an isolated storm still possible under the upper level low tomorrow. Have made some adjustments to pops/wx in the grids with the rest of the forecast looking fine. Will send an update shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight as an upper level wave moves through the region. Instability is a little better in northwest IL where the RAP analysis has 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The southeast is around 800 J/kg as of 2 pm. Shear continues to be less than 20kts...and is expected to stay weak through this system`s lifetime in central IL. So, severe weather is not expected. However, with precipitable water at 1.8" or so, periods of heavy rain will continue to be a concern. The main upper low is currently over KS and is expected to open up and move through MO tonight. Showers/thunderstorms will continue to be in the forecast tonight, with the best forcing from the main wave coming between 4 AM to noon from southwest IL to eastern IL...this is also when the surface cold front will push southeast across the area. Still, instability increases tomorrow afternoon, and with the upper trough in the area/cool temps aloft, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible again across the entire region on Sunday. Precipitable water will be closer to 1.25-1.5" on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The Midwest will transition to a very amplified flow by Monday with northerly flow across the region as an upper ridge builds over the central U.S. and an upper wave tries to dive south and cut off over the Ark-La-Tex region. This upper low stays in this general area before lifting north up the MS river valley towards midweek. This upper low will keep cooler temperatures in the region as well as the chance for shower activity. The upper low gets caught up in the main east-west flow by the end of the week and ejects northeastward allowing the zonal flow to return by Saturday. Temperatures will be warming to around 80 by Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 MVFR cigs will prevail at most sites and then become dominate across all sites around midnight...mainly SPI and PIA. BMI, DEC, and CMI will see cigs drop to below 1kft overnight but then improve back to MVFR during the morning hours. PIA, BMI, and SPI will not see VCSH until after midnight, but DEC and CMI will see VCSH all evening and through the night. All sites will see VCSH through tomorrow morning and likely in the afternoon, but going to remove mention of any precip for tomorrow afternoon with FROPA. Winds will be southwest to light and variable tonight but then become more southwest tomorrow during the day and then become west-northwest around noon with FROPA. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...Knutsvig SHORT TERM...Knutsvig LONG TERM...Knutsvig AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... A moist and unstable airmass will remain over the ArkLaMiss region ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front as we go through tonight. While much of the shower/tstm activity has diminished with nightfall, the approaching ascent has reinvigorated convective activity just to our northwest over central AR. So the near term forecast is generally on track with convective rain chances continuing tonight, and have only made minor adjustments. It still looks like patchy areas of fog can be expected over much of the area in the least, but still not sure if and where there might be more than that. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow... High pressure over the southeast is rapidly losing ground to a sfc low over the Great Lakes and the associated frontal boundary that is draped through the mid Miss River Valley and back to the southwest. Southerly flow continues to bring warm air and moisture up into the region, as a couple waves move into the region, spurring showers and thunderstorms this morning...only to be replaced by largely diurnally supported convection this afternoon. Last few HRRR runs are a little less aggressive with the pop coverage overnight once the diurnal influence is lost. Given that concerned about potential fog development overnight. Winds, or at least the forecast gusts should help to keep the development from being widespread, at least in the NE. However, the area most likely to lose clouds is closer to the tail end of the sfc trough in the southwest...less of a pressure gradient, less wind overall. Dewpoints are already in the won`t take much to see that fog develop once temps drop. Guidance has been patchy with the fog, and latest HRRR has developed a swath of very low stratus across the south. Have added patchy fog in the south and west...but may need to see that expanded. Tomorrow will be similarly hot and humid with showers and sct thunder ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Models are still somewhat inconsistent with the coverage overall...which will impact the instability available. For now, looking at forecast soundings...they are similarly adequate with "skinny" CAPE later in the afternoon, but the shear is far less impressive. Sunday night through Friday... Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Monday as a cold front approaches and passes through the region. Highs Monday will climb into the lower to middle 80s. The front and associated low will stall east of our area, with some wrap around showers possible Tuesday into Wednesday for mainly eastern portions of the area. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly cooler, mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will be building in Thursday and settling in for the remainder of the week, thus dry weather can be expected. We will see a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week, with highs back in the lower to middle 80s by Thursday and Friday. /27/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: A warm and humid airmass will continue to support showery conditions with an increased threat for IFR/LIFR stratus and perhaps some fog late tonight through early Sunday morning. Expect slowly improving ceilings mid to late morning with increased convective rainfall coverage during the afternoon, especially over eastern portions of the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 83 66 83 / 56 68 24 37 Meridian 68 81 65 81 / 46 77 45 53 Vicksburg 70 85 66 85 / 68 53 10 17 Hattiesburg 70 83 67 83 / 69 76 34 58 Natchez 68 83 67 83 / 65 44 12 20 Greenville 68 85 65 83 / 58 55 5 12 Greenwood 68 84 64 83 / 60 70 11 19 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
810 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2021 Satellite and RAP 500mb height analysis shows strong blocking continuing over Nova Scotia and Quebec, where a rex blocking pattern is in place, with a very slow shift to the east in this feature though the weekend. An upper level ridge extends from Ontario to northern Quebec with a weak trough undercutting the ridge over the western Great Lakes. At the surface a broad area of low pressure was sitting over eastern MN, WI and the U.P. Light southerly flow had brought dewpoints into the low to mid 60s and temperatures overachieved in the west where more sunshine was observed then expected, with temps reaching into the mid 70s. A cold front was strengthening somewhat over MN and Ontario which will arrive tonight, meanwhile a lake breeze was surging inland off Lake Superior with a few showers developing along the boundary over Marquette and Baraga counties. Another area of more widespread showers was over the far east. Tonight the cold front will push though the area with winds becoming light and northerly. We will continue to see areas of showers and possibly a thunderstorms with a relatively messy and weakly forced environment. Instability is present with MLCAPE of 500 to maybe 1000 J/Kg along with weak shear, which should support a few weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Areas of scattered showers will continue into Sunday and maintained the broad brushed approach to the PoPs. Additionally, light, moist onshore flow will bring low clouds into much of the area with fog, drizzle or light rain in the upslope areas. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday but it will remain rather humid for October with dewpoints in the 50s in the west to the low 60s in the east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 317 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2021 The medium range to extended forecast package will consist of an upper level shortwave trough slowly exiting the Great Lakes area Sunday night into Monday, and then the remainder of the week will remain quiet as a ridge amplifies over the region. This will cause conditions to start out the week with a chance of rain showers, before trending to dry and above average temperatures for a majority of the week. Friday into next weekend will bring the next opportunity for rain showers as a couple of shortwave disturbances propagate through the Great Lakes region. Long range guidance continues to trend toward warm weather precipitation regimes, so the outdoor enthusiasts wanting to hear about early season snow will have to hold on just a little longer. As the shortwave disturbance slowly moves to the east Sunday night into Monday, rain shower activity will begin to dissipate across the Great Lakes. Energy associated with the shortwave will then sag to the southeast, and form a longwave trough over the Southeast CONUS by Tuesday. As this occurs, an amplified upper level ridge will quickly form over the Southern Plains, and build across the Central and Northern Plains on the backside of the trough to the southeast. Also important to note is that a strong Aleutian Low pressure system will be trekking across the Canadian Rockies toward Quebec from Sunday into Tuesday. All of this combined leads to a cut off in the northern stream of jet energy and wave propagation to the east for weather systems to the south. This is why the longwave trough will form an occluded low over the southeast CONUS, and the ridge will then build across the Central CONUS, leading to a dry pattern over our cwa from Monday into late Thursday. Needless to say, the active weather pattern will mainly be to our north and south for a majority of this week. By Thursday, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject out of the Rockies ahead of a persistent longwave troughing pattern further to the west over the Pacific Ocean/Western CONUS. This shortwave will phase partially with the stagnant occluded low from the Southeast CONUS, and create the next opportunity for rain showers over Upper Michigan on Friday. A couple of additional shortwaves are possible from Friday night into next weekend, bringing the potential for light rain showers once again. Overall, expect a warm and dry pattern for the first half of the extended forecast, and then an uptick in the potential for light rain shower activity towards next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 801 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2021 Not the ideal conditions for aviation interests as the night progresses. LL stratus deck is already attempting to build in at KIWD and KCMX, and can be anticipated that all three terminals will eventually be dealing with both low ceilings as well as visbys as fog develops as well. Thunder chances will persist for a few more hours before waning overnight. Conditions are expected to improve tomorrow as clouds lift and break, but still could see some lingering low clouds at least through midday. Winds will be primarily out of the N/NNE throughout the TAF period, light to calm overnight, then picking up tomorrow. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2021 Northeasterly winds of to 15 to 25 knots are expected tonight and Sunday with low pressure passing south of Lake Superior. Thereafter no significant storm systems are expected through at least Wed with winds below 20 knots. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...lg MARINE...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
237 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity continues to pass from southwest to northeast across the forecast area. Flow from the Gulf of Mexico has brought a very moist airmass to the lower Ohio Valley, with precipitable water values of 1.8-2.0" observed via RAP analysis. This will result in locally heavy downpours through this evening, with minor flooding issues possible, especially in southeast MO where 1-3+" has already fallen in the last 36 hours. After a relative downtick late this afternoon and early this evening, we anticipate another increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage tonight through Sunday morning as the H5 shortwave over the KS moves east. Models also show an increasing H7 LLJ to aide in the upward motion. Can`t rule out a strong wind gust mixing down tonight over far southeast MO, but overall the severe risk looks very low. By Sunday morning, a surface cold front will begin to push from west to east across the forecast area. This will bring a gradual wind shift from SW to NW during the day. At the midlevels, a dry slot will work into SE Missouri, allowing that area to dry out with a few breaks in the clouds by the afternoon. We anticipate plenty of wraparound moisture to work its way into locations east of the Mississippi River from the surface low centered over the lower Great Lakes. Included slgt/chc PoPs with isolated thunder in the afternoon hours. Some of this may be more in the way of drizzle or sprinkles rather than rain showers. By Sunday night, precipitation will come to an end as the surface low departs to our east. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the lower to middle 60s with plenty of cloud cover. On Sunday, high temperatures will recover into the middle to upper 70s, but isolated locations in our northeast counties may struggle to warm much higher than 70 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The pattern will be active beginning Monday as a highly amplified regime starts with a deep trof from the Great Lakes back across the Ozarks. In time energy within the western extent of the trof will cause a cut off low to evolve over the lower MS Valley region and then drift north across the mid MS Valley region through mid week. The result will be on and off chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Overall confidence is above average given decent agreement from the deterministic guidance to their ensemble mean solutions. We narrowed the diurnal ranges slightly, but not by much as we typically see a decrease in clouds at night, more clouds diurnally driven during the day once a system like this closes off. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Low clouds, rain, and isolated thunder potential will continue into the 18z TAF forecast period. Low MVFR to IFR cigs are spreading north and east into the region, already impacting CGI, PAH, MVN, and EVV. The low cigs will move into OWB shortly after 18z today. Widespread rain showers will continue to impact the terminals today through tonight. Vsbys should remain low VFR to MVFR under most showers, though brief reductions to IFR are possible under heavier activity. Latest model guidance has reduced the thunder potential, so only retained a mention of VCTS at CGI and PAH for tonight. Steady shower activity will gradually end from west to east Sunday morning as the cold front passes. However, wraparound clouds and drizzle behind the main low pressure area will persist through the end of the forecast period at MVN, CGI, and EVV. Southerly winds of 5-10 kts will continue today, becoming NW AOA 5 kts behind the frontal passage early Sunday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWS LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...DWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
128 PM PDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Warm dry conditions and light winds will continue this weekend. A weather pattern change then appears likely with breezy afternoons, increased clouds, and a cooling trend starting around midweek. Precipitation chances may return later in the week into next weekend along with much cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Main changes to the forecast for the upcoming week: * Increased coverage of smoke/haze Sunday night-Monday AM. * Less potential for gusty winds above 30 mph next week. * Rain chances/amounts through Thursday look less promising, with best overall precip chances Friday-Saturday. * Raised Sierra snow levels Friday AM-Saturday AM. For the rest of this weekend, warm and dry conditions will continue along with light, generally north to northeast winds. Unfortunately, the HRRR Smoke model shows a few hours of smoke returning to southern Mono County this evening from the fires near Sequoia NP, and lighter haze aloft across much of the eastern Sierra and far western NV. Then for Sunday night-Monday morning, the model shows increased smoke and haze into more of eastern CA- western NV as southerly flow aloft sets up. The higher smoke potential is likely across Mono, Alpine and Douglas counties and possibly as far north as South Tahoe and Carson City, so those who prefer open windows in these locations may want to keep them closed Sunday night. For next week`s weather pattern change and approaching trough of low pressure, the highest confidence is for temperatures cooling down substantially from Wednesday-Saturday. The 80 degree warmth in the lower elevations now through Monday won`t be coming back for a while, so enjoy the warm weather while it`s still here. We`re likely to see highs fall through the 70s for lower elevations/60s near the Sierra for Wednesday-Thursday, then 60s for lower elevations/50s near the Sierra for Friday-Saturday. Longer range guidance is in solid agreement for below average temperatures into mid-October. As for the more challenging part of the forecast--where and how much precip occurs, there appears to be a trend for this trough to split off the west coast during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. We have made some adjustments toward this splitting scenario, which would reduce precip chances and amounts through Thursday, although cloud cover is still likely to be widespread. The better news with this scenario is that the winds would also be less significant each day from Tuesday-Thursday, more like typical zephyr gusts of 20-30 mph each afternoon, reducing fire weather concerns. By Friday-Saturday, the southern portion of the split trough will have a better chance to pull in some subtropical moisture, although it isn`t looking to be a deep or sustained source. While a general chance of mainly light rain and high elevation snow is retained for both days, it isn`t looking to be a blockbuster event. The snow level also is less likely to fall to Lake Tahoe elevation (our current forecast raises Sierra snow levels to near 8000 feet Friday morning, with the lowest snow level of 7000-7500 feet projected for Saturday morning). Of course, the rain-snow line will continue to fluctuate due to the wide variance of storm tracks indicated in the guidance sources, so it is still advised for anyone planning activities in the Sierra communities to have some winter gear handy Friday through next weekend. MJD && .AVIATION... Pleasant flying conditions this weekend, though HRRR smoke models do indicate some haze across the Sierra and western Nevada Sierra front today and especially by late Sunday due to the KNP Complex wildfire. The smoke doesn`t appear particularly thick outside of areas immediately downwind of the fire, but slantwise visibility reductions and/or terrain obscuration is certainly possible, especially in the Sierra from approximately KBAN south. Terminals most likely impacted include KMMH with a 25% chance for KMEV and KTVL. Light winds this weekend will increase a bit for areas north of I-80 Monday-Tuesday, then across the region Wednesday-Friday as a colder system moves into the west. At this point, most gusts should remain near or below 25 kts for terminal sites. This system could bring rain and snow showers to the region by the end of next week, though next weekend looks more likely at this time. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
743 PM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry conditions through tonight. A cold front combined with an upper level low should slowly drift toward the Mid Atlantic by late Sunday, which will bring chances of rain throughout the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Saturday... Shower chances increase by Sunday afternoon... Isolated showers developed in the northwest North Carolina mountains just before 4PM, in an area with more instability as shown on the MSAS and LAPS analysis where CAPES were 800-1200 J/KG and the Lifted Index was as low as -6. HiRes models show a bulk of these showers will dissipate by 10PM. High pressure will head offshore this evening, and clouds will increase from the west overnight due to a cold front approaching the Mississippi River. Thus, low temperatures will be notably milder tonight. Patchy fog may still be possible in the river valleys on Sunday morning, but it will not be as dense nor as widespread compared to this morning due to the increasing clouds. Otherwise, the cold front and its associated upper level low should head into the Ohio River Valley. Showers should race ahead of the front and could enter southeast West Virginia, far southwest Virginia, and the northwest North Carolina mountains by the afternoon. However, chances appear low that these showers will reach the Blue Ridge, so the Piedmont will likely have another unseasonably warm day with highs in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... Wet and Mild Throughout All of Next Week... An upper low sagging southward into the Midsouth will be the dominant weather feature for the eastern U.S. throughout all of next week. Once the upper low settles into the MS/AL/Middle TN area, it will remain there throughout the week sending deep moisture and spokes of energy into the eastern U.S. keeping a very wet weather pattern in place. NBM pops remain very high averaging 50-80% throughout the entire period. In addition, thunderstorm potential is much higher than normal for this time of year, which could result in locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts for the Mon-Wed time frame appear to be in the 1-2 inch range, but locally heavier amounts are possible. Given some uncertainty in the intensity of the upper low and exact location still somewhat questionable, don`t want to ramp up pops or QPF any higher than already indicated. Temperatures will remain at or above normal and dewpoints will also remain well above normal for this time of year. High temperatures will remain in the 70s with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s. Well above normal dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s! /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Wet Weather Pattern Likely to Continue into the Weekend... A broad closed upper low will remain across the Tennessee Valley and will have to await for stronger energy to evolve in the western U.S. to finally kick the system out of the area. This is not likely to occur until the weekend or perhaps even beyond. Thus, the wet weather will continue. Temperatures will remain mild with any Canadian air completely cut off from the flow and the region. However, with decreasing instability and slightly cooler temperatures from endless cloud cover and precipitation, the thunderstorm threat appears to be less and hopefully QPF will be a bit less as well. However, after several days of rainfall, any heavy rain at this point could be an issue. Will add mention to HWO, but be rather unspecific at this point given level of uncertainty. More confidence in temperatures which will remain above normal through the period with well above normal dewpoints in the 60s. Low temperatures will be a good 15-20 degrees above normal in the 50s and 60s with high temperatures mainly in the 70s, about 10 degrees above normal. /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Saturday... Tonight mid and high clouds will increase from the west, so any low clouds or fog overnight will not be as widespread. For now have a few hours of MVFR fog in at KLWB and KBCB toward morning. An approaching cold front will bring lower ceilings and a chance of showers west of the Blue Ridge by Sunday afternoon. Have added showers into the KLWB and KBLF TAFs after 22Z/6PM but latest RAP and NamNest suggest the rain could be anytime after 18Z/2PM. Above average confidence for wind. Average confidence on ceilings, visibility and timing of the rain on Sunday. Extended Aviation Discussion... MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely during Sunday night and Monday as a cold front slowly moves overhead to bring periodic showers. Wet weather will continue through the middle of this week. With a surface based wedge setting up through at least Wednesday, little improvement in flight categories is expected through Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...AMS/PW SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/PW